(UPDATE AT THE BOTTOM)

Alright, day after day….week after week.  The snow lovers have been asking me over and over.  When are we going to see some snow???  Well, we finally have a decent shot coming up over this weekend.  Now we’re not expecting anything like last year or the year before, but this will be something for the snow lovers to help satiate their hunger for snow.  Hopefully……  Of course at this time I would equate it to giving a small pizza roll to someone hoping to eat an extra large Italian pie.

Let’s start with today’s forecast and we’ll build up to the snow.  High pressure is in control today.  We’ll start with sunshine, but clouds will build through the afternoon.  With the southerly winds, high temperatures will get a boost up to the upper 50s.  It will be a nice day.

Today's Forecast

All of the models depict this shot at snow now.  This  is a big difference in the NAM from 24 hours ago which was very dry.  Because of the big change I have guarded optimism about the snow chances.  However, all models are in agreement at this time.  I’m basing this off of the 6z (overnight) runs of the models.  I’ll try and do a quick update if the 12z (morning) models come in differently.  Here is our latest model run.  It shows rain showers changing over to snow showers by 7pm tomorrow evening.

Future Trak 7pm Saturday

Now our computer model is a bit different from the others in that it shows a second surge of moisture around 4am on Sunday.

While the previous blog had a lot of good information, I wanted to update things based off of the latest models and National Weather Service.  There is now a Winter Storm Watch in effect for Surry and Sussex counties for tomorrow.

Winter Storm Watch

You can bet that there will be more advisories and/or warnings for tomorrow’s event.  I’ve updated my snow forecast totals:

Snow Forecast

The NAM model came in with a sensible scenario.  It’s raw data came up with just under 5 inches for the area.  However, our model still is forecasting 1-2″ with higher amounts in the Watch area.  The GFS is very aggressive on precipitation.  However, it also warms things up and brings rain to the region.

Check out my previous blog. It has a lot of details about the models and also talks about the system for Saturday night/early Sunday.

 You may have noticed I’ve been struggling the last several of days- doing a poor imitation of Barry White. I’m suffering from my seasonal battle with a triple whammy: sore throat/laryngitis/sinus trouble. It’s made life miserable- just a couple of hours of sleep last night, alone.  At choir practice earlier, I pulled a Milli Vanilli- problem was, my choir director didn’t notice.  Dang! Meanwhile, I asked for your help on our WAVY Facebook page - and, boy, did you respond!  Check out the top 10 tips [and my comments ]

[DON: Yeah, and when I start spouting lava on air...]

BONNIE HARRIS: Garlic syrup, made by crushing several cloves of garlic, putting them in a jar and covering with enough strong dark honey tocover. Let sit for a few days to “steep”, then strain to remove garlic. Take one to two tablespoons as needed.”

[DON: If my throat doesn't get better, at least I'll ward off lurking Vampires!]

ANDREA JOHNSON CLAXTON: ” Since sore throats are often caused by sinus drip, I recommend a Neti-Pot or other sinus rinse system at the onset of symptoms. I start using mine as soon as I get the sniffles. It sounds gross and/or scary before you try it, but it works so well that I have become a true believer!”

[DON: I hate Neti-Pots! I almost drowned first time I tried one. But after I stopped whining, my sinuses actually cleared up! ]

TRANLEY DEHAVEN: “A small glass of ginger ale or diet sprite, a cao full of whiskey, a tsp. of honey and a squirt of lemon; stir and sip on it. Works everytime for me!”

[DON: Whiskey, huh? He,he he. I'll feeling better already.]

MARY CAMPBELL THORNTON: Hot tea with honey and a warm scarf around your neck. (Maybe) a shot of brandy, too! lol

[DON: If I can't coordinate the scarf with my suit, I'll just wear a super thick neck tie. But, really, after a 'lil taste of brandy I won't care what I'm wearing!]

BONNIE TOYOU: “Gargle with warm (as you can tolerate) salt water every 4 hours for 24 hours. This is an oldie but goodie!”

 [DON: Ah, yes- warm salt water: Translation: spit]

WENDI DUNLO-AMBROSE: Tea, warmed. A spot of sugar and a spoonfull of honey. (If you are lucky enough to find some local honey that’s even better). Feel better soon! And start wearing a scarf and wrap up

[DON:  Tea and Honey's the winning ticket. But, there we go with that scarf again. Local HONEY is a good idea- allergies and all...]

ROBERT W. BAIN: Take several shots of Wild Turkey 101 or some Grand Marnier.

[DON: SEVERAL shots, huh?  What exactly are we curing here, Robert?]

CYNTHIA C. BAILEY: Nothing hot, it makes it worse. Try something cold -like a smoothie or ice cream. You will feel the soothing right  away…

[DON: Alright, "Doctor" Bailey- First time I've heard of this "cold" solution, but, I'm on that tonight!]

VIRGINIA RECKARD BUCKLEY:  ”You are gonna love this- my mother, God rest her soul, told me her mother used to put cold salt pork in a scarf and wrap it around her throat. She had to wear it to school and said she didn’t smell too good at the end of the day. LOL

[DON: And, Ms Buckley, I'll bet that remedy worked, your mom was cured, and she was also voted "most likely to get eaten by a bear!"]

Seeing flooded streets across the region reminded me of the times after hurricanes when I was growing up. Seems the weather was always warm and sunny the day after.  Here’s hoping that after this big rain event the same holds true.

Wow! Who would have thought? Our back up system - failed. Plans B - kablooee! My TV station- which prides itself on being On Your Side – through thick and thin, snow and ice, hurricane or high water - knocked off the air.  And during the height of one of the biggest news stories of the year. Why? How? It’s technical (translation: I really don’t know). I do know it’s also humbling.  “The best laid plans of mice and men…”  Sorry ’bout that. We weren’t on the air when you needed us. And we didn’t like that one bit.  Thankfully we never lost coverage here on WAVY.COM. Do know that our team of engineers and staff got busy- checking every circuit,  breaker, switch and button.   90 minutes later – success! Lights, cameras, action!  “Back in stride, again.”    In retrospect we’re the ones who ask you the questions. Now we’re asking a few questions of ourselves in order to get some answers, and make some changes -if needed.

Who turned out the lights?

Meantime, thank YOU for hanging in there with us. We know you could have gone elsewhere for your severe storm coverage- and stayed there. But you came back. We appreciate you very much.  We’ll try not to let that happen again.   See you in the a-m. Don R.

As I drove in this morning at 3:30 am leaving Virginia Beach with only light sprinkles I thought to myself that I might be able to get airborne to cover the morning commute. But as I crossed the Broad Creek Bridge on I-264 I ran into a solid wall of water and quickly realized that flying this morning was going to be a NO GO.

When I arrived at WAVY and was joined by Chopper 10 photographer Tom Marks, we got into a live truck and hit the roads. As most of you know Virginia Beach Blvd and Tidewater Drive is a trouble spot every time we get any hard rains. So that was going to be our first stop, but it turned into our only stop for the morning shows.

When we arrived, there were cars making their way through the shallow water at the intersection with little problem. But by the time the first live report came along the water had started its rise. Within the time span of only 30 minutes the entire intersection was flooded with water from a couple of inches to at least a foot or more. That however did not stop traffic from making the attempt. Some made it but most were not as lucky.

Here is some food for thought, if you can’t see the markings on the street don’t make the attempt to drive through it. Because if you do, as I showed you this morning, you could be in for some very expensive repairs.

If you are one of the unfortunate ones that learned this the hard way mark it down to lesson learned.

I will be up – weather permitting – this afternoon to show you the aftermath so look to WAVY-TV to be on your side with the best coverage of this very unusual storm.

Take Care,

Chopper John

High pressure has been responsible for the nice sunny, dry and warm weather we received the last few days.  Today several weak waves of energy will track across the area and an upper level low pressure will drag a cold front eastward while drawing moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

Today through Saturday will be filled with a good mix of clouds and showers.  The good thing is over the next three days there won’t be a day where we are dealing with rain all day but there will be periods of showers tonight through at least Saturday afternoon.  A rumble of thunder or two not out of the question Saturday.

Once the low pulls north and east away from the area by Sunday, then the sunshine will return along with some cooler numbers.  A drier westerly wind will dominate behind the front and a drop in temperatures next week.  It won’t be dramatically colder but it will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 50s through next week instead of the mid to upper 60s and 70s that we’ve felt in some spots the past few days.

A super -tough forecast ahead.  A very strong trough of low pressure is diving out of the Midwest while an area of low pressure develops off of the Carolina coast tonight into tomorrow.  At this point this low will be close enough to bring rain into the area late this afternoon and into the evening.  As the strong trough and colder air associated with it crashes into the area overnight, the rain should change to snow from west to east overnight.  The changeover should be during the evening hours from the Peninsula west and around midnight on the southside into Carolina.

The big question will be how much moisture will be left over with this system once the complete changeover occurs.  The other huge question is the exact position of this large, expanding area of low pressure off the coast.  Any change in forecast position of the storm can have a HUGE impact on snowfall totals.  If the low is just a tad closer…much higher amounts are likely.  If it’s just a tad bit further away lesser amounts are expected.

The timing of the changeover will also affect snowfall amounts…a later changeover means lesser amounts.  If the changeover to snow occurs earlier then more snow will have an opportunity to accumulate.

Temperatures will be key to any accumulations too.  A temperature of 33 with moderate snow will stick to the grass but not the roads.  A temperature of 31 and moderate snow will stick everywhere after an hour or two of steady snow.  Light snow will not accumulate at all (a wet, warm ground initially) but a very heavy snow will accumulate everywhere even with a temperature just above freezing.

Needless to say the amount of variables in this forecast makes it extremely difficult to predict snowfall amounts.  But here is my best guesstimate for now.

2-4″ Ahoskie, Wakefield, Williamsburg, Gloucester and the Northern Neck.

1-3″ for most of the metro area excluding Virginia Beach

0-2″ for Virginia Beach into Currituck County and the Northern Outer Banks

To WAVY-TV 10 and Fox 43 viewers,
 
I wanted to let you know that I will be leaving WAVY-TV 10 and Fox 43.  This is my last weekend on-air doing weathercasts.  Weather has been my passion since I was 9 years old, but I’ve decided to pursue other interests and spend weekends with family and friends.  It was a bittersweet decision for me because I truly enjoy my job as a broadcast meteorologist.  I’ve had a terrific run in my home state of Virginia at WAVY and Fox over the past 3 years and I thank you for your loyal viewership and support.  I’ve made wonderful friends here and I have enjoyed volunteering in the Hampton Roads community.  In addition to weather events, my highlights have included the Holiday Lights Contest, Friday Night Flights, my “Pet of the Week” segments, and announcing Penn State’s football game score at the end of some Saturday evening newscasts. 
 
Best wishes and sunshine always,

Cheryl Nelson
Meteorologist
CBM/AMS Seal

Many of our pets enjoy spending time outdoors.  However, when temperatures drop below 32 degrees, it is a good idea to bring them inside, if possible.  If pets have to stay outdoors, be sure they have a shelter with blankets to keep them warm.  Check and refill their water bowl often as the water freezes pretty quickly in sub freezing weather. 

If your pets are inside, be aware of the pests they may bring in with them (certain insects, etc may try to come inside to warm up too).    I do the “Pet of the Week” segment on WAVY-TV and have a genuine love for animals and their well-being.

If you haven’t thought about parasite prevention for your pet, now would be a good time to start.  Fleas may come inside with your pet, especially during the fall and winter when it gets cold outside.  Fleas can cause some bad diseases in your pet such as cat scratch fever and tapeworms.  Fleas also can irritate your pet’s skin causing him/her to scratch the itchy skin continuously.  Heartworms can survive in your pet’s lungs, heart, and blood vessels.  Other internal parasites like hookworms, roundworms, and whipworms can also infect your pets causing them gastrointestinal problems: kittens and puppies are most susceptible  to these parasites.

I hope your pets are warm, healthy and happy! 

To keep your pet healthy, talk with your veterinarian about parasite prevention.  If you have a story you’d like to share about how you keep your pet safe and warm during the winter months, let me know.  Please remember to spay or neuter your pet.  Microchipping is also a good idea.  All pets brought to shelters are scanned for a microchip- if you lose your pet, the chances of being reunited with him/her are much higher if the pet is microchipped.  It is a safe, quick and easy process.  Talk to your veterinarian if you would like additional information.   

I’d love to see your pet pictures too.  Feel free to send me an email at cheryl.nelson@wavy.com

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson