(UPDATE AT THE BOTTOM)
Alright, day after day….week after week. The snow lovers have been asking me over and over. When are we going to see some snow??? Well, we finally have a decent shot coming up over this weekend. Now we’re not expecting anything like last year or the year before, but this will be something for the snow lovers to help satiate their hunger for snow. Hopefully…… Of course at this time I would equate it to giving a small pizza roll to someone hoping to eat an extra large Italian pie.
Let’s start with today’s forecast and we’ll build up to the snow. High pressure is in control today. We’ll start with sunshine, but clouds will build through the afternoon. With the southerly winds, high temperatures will get a boost up to the upper 50s. It will be a nice day.
All of the models depict this shot at snow now. This is a big difference in the NAM from 24 hours ago which was very dry. Because of the big change I have guarded optimism about the snow chances. However, all models are in agreement at this time. I’m basing this off of the 6z (overnight) runs of the models. I’ll try and do a quick update if the 12z (morning) models come in differently. Here is our latest model run. It shows rain showers changing over to snow showers by 7pm tomorrow evening.
Now our computer model is a bit different from the others in that it shows a second surge of moisture around 4am on Sunday.
- Future Trak Sunday 4AM
The first shot of snow is more likely going to affect the Peninsula Northward, but if we get that second shot of snow, then a dusting is possible all the way down into North Carolina. Again, the NAM and the GFS (the common models we use) are in agreement with the snow, but the Hi-Resolution WRF (a very detailed model), has very little snow at all. It only has a light dusting for the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore. I definitely need to see the morning update of that before I get really confident in this forecast.