A super -tough forecast ahead.  A very strong trough of low pressure is diving out of the Midwest while an area of low pressure develops off of the Carolina coast tonight into tomorrow.  At this point this low will be close enough to bring rain into the area late this afternoon and into the evening.  As the strong trough and colder air associated with it crashes into the area overnight, the rain should change to snow from west to east overnight.  The changeover should be during the evening hours from the Peninsula west and around midnight on the southside into Carolina.

The big question will be how much moisture will be left over with this system once the complete changeover occurs.  The other huge question is the exact position of this large, expanding area of low pressure off the coast.  Any change in forecast position of the storm can have a HUGE impact on snowfall totals.  If the low is just a tad closer…much higher amounts are likely.  If it’s just a tad bit further away lesser amounts are expected.

The timing of the changeover will also affect snowfall amounts…a later changeover means lesser amounts.  If the changeover to snow occurs earlier then more snow will have an opportunity to accumulate.

Temperatures will be key to any accumulations too.  A temperature of 33 with moderate snow will stick to the grass but not the roads.  A temperature of 31 and moderate snow will stick everywhere after an hour or two of steady snow.  Light snow will not accumulate at all (a wet, warm ground initially) but a very heavy snow will accumulate everywhere even with a temperature just above freezing.

Needless to say the amount of variables in this forecast makes it extremely difficult to predict snowfall amounts.  But here is my best guesstimate for now.

2-4″ Ahoskie, Wakefield, Williamsburg, Gloucester and the Northern Neck.

1-3″ for most of the metro area excluding Virginia Beach

0-2″ for Virginia Beach into Currituck County and the Northern Outer Banks

An unusually strong upper level low pressure system in the jet stream level (around 20,000 feet) is the key to how much snow you get in your city.  The rule of thumb is rather simple for meteorologists.  The accumulating snow occurs along and north of the upper level low vorticity max.  This system is easily seen on current satellite images and is better seen on what we call “water vapor” loops.

The forecast is for this low to drop down from southwest VA toward Raleigh and then across Northeastern N.C. to a location near Knotts Island late today.  So draw a line from those locations northward and that’s where the snow will fall and stick.  The second rule to remember is the heaviest snows usually occur 40-100 miles north of the upper low track.  So I am expecting 1-3″ on the southside, 2-4 inches on the peninsula, 3-7 inches middle peninsula, northern neck and the northern part of the Eastern Shore.  Carolina will receive lesser amounts with little or none on the Outer Banks.

If the track of that low shifts even a bit…that can alter snowfall amounts and drastically impact travel for the better or worse depending on your location.  At this point it would be safe if everybody was home by 10-11am on the peninsula and 11am-12pm on the southside.

Meteorologist Jon Cash

18-30 inches of snow for northern and western Virginia…very similar to the December storm that shut down Washington, D.C.

Here in Hampton Roads the rain/snow line will be hovering over the region this morning….so rain and or snow expected during the morning Friday before warmer Atlantic Ocean air pushes from the southeast.  With all the snow melt from the past storm and 1-3 inches of rain late today and tonight, localized urban flooding is a sure bet for some.  The air pressure will bottom out around 984 mb with this low as it moves off our coast.  That is the normal air pressure of a Cat. I or Cat. II hurricane.  Winds will gust to 50 mph along the coast tonight and tomorrow morning and could easily gust to hurricane strength over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

Colder air will rapidly wrap around the low tomorrow morning leading to the rain quickly changing to snow early to mid morning on the peninsula and mid to late morning on the southside.  The models are spitting out between .30″ and .50″ water content after the changeover.  Using a ten to one ratio that would mean 3-5 inches of snow…more snow as you go north and less as you head south.

On the roads…heavy rain will freeze on the roads tomorrow with several inches of snowfall on top of that making driving very hazardous.  With temps in the 20’s late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, that ice and snow will be on the roads Sunday!

Meteorologist Jon Cash

I’ve been trying for a couple weeks to get information on the Sheriff’s race in Suffolk from both of the men who want the job.
It’s a good job. According to the Compensation Board for the Commonwealth of Virginia, the salary is more than $90,000 a year. That’s 30 percent more than the city’s median income.

Raleigh Isaacs, Sr. has it now. He’s held the position since 1993. According to a resume, he graduated from Christopher Newport University. Before becoming Sheriff in 1994, Isaacs was with the Suffolk Police Department from 1970 to 1993. He worked for the Norfolk Police Department from 1961 to 1970.
We’ll get back to the incumbent in a moment.

Challenger Jay Clason is a political newcomer who wants the job of securing the courts in Suffolk.

In a phone interview he told me he moved to Suffolk about eight years ago. Clason said he gained skills he thinks are valuable to serve as Sheriff while completing 27 years in the Army and Army Reserve. He pointed to establishing a police precinct in Bosnia, and creating police training programs in Hungary while in the military.

Unlike in many Hampton Roads cities, the Suffolk Sheriff’s Office is not responsible for maintaining a jail.
Clason said while he believes he’s qualified to manage the security of the courthouse and documents, he thinks the office can do more to help the citizens of Suffolk.

According to Clason, there should be, “cooperative efforts between police and fire departments, and the Sheriff’s Office.” He said deputies, “could assist the police department with some of the fundamental law enforcement responsibilities.”

Now, I’ll explain why you won’t read any detailed responses from Sheriff Isaacs about the office.

At 9:30 on a Wednesday morning in September, I left a message for Isaacs. At 10 o’clock on the same day, he returned my call. I informed him I’d like to ask him about the race so I could post something online.
He said I’d need to tell him what I wanted to ask. So I told him I wanted to know about his vision for the future, and to get his perspective on some of the controversy during his tenure. When I mentioned allegations from some of his constituents that he used his position to help a relative in legal trouble, that was it. He firmly informed me he would not speak with me. He hung up. I called him back. Again and again. I had a colleague try. No luck.
I believed at the time – and still do – that a journalist should be able to ask an elected official about anything that may involve his actions, in the realm of his elected position, that may have been perceived as improper. I am not saying the Sheriff did anything wrong.

That said, while some in Suffolk have raised the question on the internet, his opponent told me it is not an issue for him.
In fact, Jay Clason told me he just wants the people of Suffolk to hear from both candidates about how they are going to serve them.

That’s pretty much the extent of this post. If Isaacs returns my call before the election, I’ll be sure to post an update.

Democrat Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell both used their latest debate Monday night, to tell Virginians they’ll be the best man for the job – of creating jobs.
I watched the debate in Norfolk with a handful of AARP members.
Before the event got started a 60 year old woman, Ann Florence made it very clear that she’s sick of bickering she sees in televised campaign ads. Florence told me,
“I can’t decide who I want to vote for because neither one of them sounds like something that will help with the situation – unemployment which I’m part of.”

Florence has been out of work for 18 months. She said she wanted to hear more about opportunities for her. After the debate I asked her if she heard what she needed to hear.

“No, not from either of them. They talked about other areas, but nothing for here in [Hampton Roads,]” Florence said.

What did the candidates say? I took a second listen to the debate, so you can decide.

In response to a question from a Lynchburg resident who wanted to know about high-tech jobs for central and southern (or Southside) Virginia similar to those in Northern Virginia:
DEEDS: “I said on the day I announced I was running for this office and I said again, the night I was nominated that I’m running for governor to create opportunity, prosperity, and hope in every part of Virginia… To take high-tech jobs to places the Danville, Lynchburg We’ve got to make sure the smartest workforce in the world. We need to invest in transportation and higher education. We’ve got to also make sure we put broadband internet in every part of the state.

MCDONNELL: “I visited Southside, the people are hurting there with double digit unemployment. We need more money from the tobacco commission to go into high tech areas. We need to promote things like the talapia farm in Southside the biodiesel production facility in Gretna…. Me or the Lt. Governor will be on ground every 30 days in Southside to make sure we are promoting high tech jobs that are necessary to help that region.”

In response to a question from a Richmond man about helping farmers in rural parts of Virginia

DEEDS: “I grew up on a farm. Bath County is one of the most rural areas of the state… At the state level we need to do a better job of marketing our products worldwide, so we can create a market for our larger producers to be able to sell their product worldwide, so we can make farming more profitable.”

MCDONNELL : “It’s critically important that we have an aggressive work by the Secretary of Agriculture to promote new Virginia markets all over the country and around the world for our great products…  I’ve traveled around rural parts of state and outlined a detailed rural economic development plan to be able to help farmers.”

To be fair, none of the debate questions specifically talked about job creation or growth in Hampton Roads. However, I’ll point out that neither candidate volunteered a concrete solution for people like Ann Florence. The Virginia Employment Commission reports that 55,700 Virginians living in Hampton Roads are unemployed. Those hoping to make a decision for governor based on a ‘jobs plan’ for this region were seemingly left out in the debate.

Florence told me, “when I go for a job and there are 30 people looking for the same job, who’s getting to get it? Not me. I didn’t hear anything about that.”

Gear as Delegate, and Helsel as mayor, both voted against the General Assembly’s transportation plan of 2007 that included regional transportation authorities. Both men seem frustrated that the HRBT is not currently on the list of immediate priorities for VDOT. Both men even agree that increasing taxes is not the way they want to fund a solution.

In our conversations Gear and Helsel both give favorable consideration to a proposal that would use revenue from future growth at the ports, and put a portion of that money toward transportation needs. Of course, the money would only be available once the growth is a reality, instead of just a projection.

In speaking with Helsel and Gear, I didn’t hear any key differences in their perspectives on transportation. Helsel said he thinks it’s time for someone knew and that someone is him. However, he’s not the only challenger trying to replace Gear in Richmond.

In nearly two weeks of trying to contact Democratic candidate and York County teacher Sam Eure, I was unsuccessful in reaching him or anyone with his campaign. In the past couple of days he and I have played phone tag.

However, the comments on transportation as posted on Eure’s website are as follows:

“Our rapidly decaying transportation infrastructure will soon impede our ability to recruit and retain commercial development in the state. The steady increase in commuting time will negatively affect the productivity of our citizens and our quality of life. Systems in place to safely and expeditiously move our citizens in the event of a natural disaster are vital. And the solution to our transportation problems is connected to the flow of funding brought in to correct them.”

UPDATE: I connected with candidate Eure on the phone.
He, like his opponents believes the “HRBT is extremely important. We need to look at ways to reduce traffic on HRBT.” Eure said he wants Virginia to find ways to get container traffic off of HRBT and Monitor Merrimac Bridge Tunnel.

On funding transportation solutions Eure said, “Let’s go through a zero-based funding plan at every agency in Virginia, instead of automatically giving agencies the same amount of money or an increase from the year before. An agency may not need the same level of funding. We could find some savings there. Then I’d look at implementing tolls and increasing fees for licensing and registration. That way the people using the system are paying for it.”
As a last resort, Eure told me he’s willing to look at a one to three cent gasoline tax increase. He says, “I know taxes are something everyone is trying to avoid, but when you do that you’re going into battle hamstringing yourself. It’s like tying an arm behind your back. You need to have revenue and efficiencies to deal with this situation.”

I hope you noticed I was off for about 7 days in June. Yeah, I was on vacation alright. My wife and I along with 3 other adults, took 7 teenagers to HAITI.

It was the culmination of 9 months of work at my church, St. Vincent de Paul in southeast Newport News. My wife and I, along with Dr. Mamie Locke, had a class of 16 kids preparing for a pretty significant event in their lives and in the church. And we brainstormed and came up with the idea of a mission trip to visit kids at an orphanage in Hinge, Haiti. Here’s the first installment of the story.

THE ARRIVAL:

We hit the ground in Port au Prince, on time, ’round 415p, Sunday June 21st. Cleared customs. 2 kids apparently did not fill out their green VISA cards correctly and were directed to meet with an officer for clarification. Uh-oh. I had stepped out of the reception area of the terminal where the kids were being questioned. And when I tried to go back in, a 6-foot-4 inching guy in a police type uniform told me I couldn’t. When I tried to tell him I didn’t speak Creole, he seemed perturbed and used his hands, including his middle finger, to describe to me what I could not do. That gesture, plus the visible gun on his hip, translated very well. I waited in the lobby. 10 minutes later the kids were free and we were on to the next challenge.

THE GAUNTLET:

As we stepped outside the terminal, the weather was nice, about 85 degrees with a few clouds – not bad during this “rainy season.” So much for looking up. Straight ahead of us were about a hundred people crowded behind a barricade – apparently waiting for someone or something. They didn’t seem to care who we were, so we turned right and headed for the bus, which we could not see. A handful of escorts- uniformed and ”regular” folks – (porters) followed us along the 50 yard walk to the bus. Since we could not see the bus, there was that uneasy feeling of- “why were these guys following us and where’s our transportation?” I forgot brother Cos’ (Cosmas Rubencamp, out guide) first rule of exiting an airport in Haiti- “Don’t give up your bag.” Some guy- not in a uniform- hit me with a bit of a sob story in Creole, and grabbed for my bag – and yeah, I let him have it, trying to be friendly. He took off for the bus and a few other guys followed him, trying to get their hand on the bag- and then a piece of the TIP.

When we got to the bus- I was trying to get everyone on quickly. They were moving slowly- probably because of the growing crowd of people asking for money around the door, and the sad sight of what we were about to board. As you raised your foot almost 3 feet to reach the first step of the bus, your eyes were then drawn to the seating arrangement. Those wanting to sit in the back had to negotiate around the first seat, a kitchen chair welded to the floor -and no seatbelt. I had this vision of hitting a bump and being ejected out of the half-door, strapped to my kitchen chair. How embarrassing.

I finally got onboard last. My “porter” tried to follow on with his hand out for a tip. I looked at Cos and he said it was cool to tip the “head” porter – $20- and the guy would share it with the crowd. Cha ching! Buh bye.

THE BUS:

Frightening. It looked like a Volvo panel truck/cab with a school bus body welded onto its bed. It could have fit in any circus parade with its rainbow colored paint job. The engine seemed to beg for more horses – even to go 25 miles an hour- and I was thinking- “what will this baby do on the highway?” Little did I know we would never travel much faster than that. The ride was noisy and very bouncy- we took bumps hard through PaP, the ‘burbs, and the approaching hillside.

THE SIGHTS:

Incredible. One continuous slum with every house or business fronted with custom-protective iron gates, windows and doors, and the expanse of each property- whether a compound or a shack- walled off in creatively molded cement or custom metal fencing topped with menacing barbed wire. Were the property owners trying to keep people out- or in? There were people all over – going somewhere, hanging out, trying to sell something from a vendor cart, or just livin’ life. It seemed like every other house or building was under construction- but the contractor wasn’t finished with the room addition -or the roof. Cars and trucks- and those carnival looking pickups with a bunch of people hanging out the back (Tap Taps?) all fought with us for space and speed on the streets.

THE TRIP:

As we reached the outskirts of the city, the dark mountain range came into view- and shockingly, few if any trees. And there were those gloomy looking clouds. This was the rainy season. It also occurred to me that that dark mountain range under those gloomy clouds was where we’re heading. The road was paved, the music was crankin’ out of a portable radio taped to the luggage rack, and our bus was holding together- so it seemed we were on our way.

Along the way, our driver would occasionally stop and pick up an additional rider. That was strange to me. For a fee of $1,000 to secure the bus and driver for a week, I thought the bus was dedicated to us. Plus I felt uneasy about the unknown quantity being added to the mix. Safety first. ‘Cos would later say it was customary for drivers to pick up additional riders- part “hustle”, part “weight”- (to get us through the sure-to-come muddy roads). Cool.

Two hours into the ride (and we were still thinking we’d be at Maison Fortune Orphanage in Hinche by 9-ish) the paved road ended and the crushed-stone and dirty stretch began. Slow down, right? Well, the driver must not have gotten the memo. He hit a couple of potholes, (heck, TUB-HOLES) hard and the impacts finally took their toll. The rear axle broke. We were dead in the “water.” It was starting to get dark and those of us who got off the bus to stretch and look around, felt a few rain drops. I mumbled a few words that did not translate into prayers.

The driver and back-up guy got off the bus to the inspect the damage. They also made a call- apparently to M-F director Jean Louis who told them to get to the next town and pick up another bus. “Whoa- nelly!” How long was that going to take? Why not just call Triple A? Yeah, right. The back up driver finally flagged down a vehicle, hopped on board and he was off. Those of us who didn’t know at the time what he was doing were wondering -WHAT IS HE DOING?

About an hour later, and after darkness had overtaken us, he showed up with the second bus.

During the wait, I was out on the road taking pictures of our broke-down bus when another vehicle was headed in our direction and needing to get by us. Big, military type truck with a bunch of guys hanging out of the back. That driver honked his horn and never slowed down. I was in his path- and would have become part of the path- had I not jumped out of the way at the last second. The driver never slowed down! (Did I say that already?). When I collected myself and turned around to see where the “fire truck” was racing off to, I saw one guy on the rear of the truck with his hands on his gun. Hmmm – maybe I better not my raise my hand in a “salute.” Yeah, it was a U-N truck. We would see more of them than local police. And I was told the U-N guys don’t stop for nobody.

After about an hour the second bus arrived and we were on our way. It was around 9 pm and it started to rain.

Don: “Are we there yet?” ‘Cos: “No, not half way yet.” Say what?! The rain continued to fall and we could not see anything except the road ahead illuminated by our bus’ lights. We could HEAR the driver splashing his way through the frequent mud puddles. Got stuck a couple of times and we groaned along with the engine. But, to our driver’s credit, he just stopped, backed up and plowed on through a slightly different part of the road.

When we reached one creepy looking town we slowed down. The driver seemed to be looking for someone or thing. Bad time to have a big mac attack. And then he found it- a gas station. Filler up! Well, as much as 10 gallons would do. The meter on the pump read $10 and I’m thinking “not bad!” Then the back-up driver told Cos $50 dollars! But the pump read $10!? $50! – Who’s going to pay? They looked at me. I dug out two twenties and collected the other ten from the group – “au revoir!” Yeah, I got your au re voir right here!!!! !@#$%&*

Cruising, Cruising, Raining, Raining. Splashing, splashing, Tick tock- the minutes were slowly passing by along with the miles. And after we topped a little hill and start cruising along the downside, we came to another stop. Our driver pulled us over to the right – behind a big ‘ol dump truck looking’ vehicle. Our guy got out to see what was what. Meanwhile, we noticed the sound of rushing water to our right. The loud sound of rushing water. Our driver came back to tell Coz the road ahead was flooded. “And?” He said all we could do was wait it out.

It must have been ’round midnight. We were tired, funky, hungry and some still scared the “ton-ton le fools” would come get us -like America’s infamous boogey man. We still couldn’t believe what we were hearing – “wait until the water recedes…” And how long would that take? As long as it takes. One of our teens, Zach Russell (tall kid) and I got out to see what we could see. We walked about 50 yards down the hill and around a curve and- there it was – mini rapids- fast moving water flowing left to right, about 8-10 feet deep- cutting right through our road. We passed about three stopped vehicles down our side of the hill but on the other side there seemed to be a caravan – lights on- and just waiting. What we didn’t see was WHERE the water was going. It was falling down to a HUGE river and lake. We were a safe distance, but still near the edge of a cliff above a big river that emptied into a lake!

Back to our bus. Might as well catch some ‘Z’s.

The sound of a straining diesel truck engine woke us up around 3am. The guy made it through! Hip Hip — . Wait a minute; it’ll soon be our turn – Can We? Our driver put it in gear – VRRRROOOM! Down the hill, slowly, steadily, no stopping now – Splash! We were in the stream. No water through the door. Our driver didn’t stop. He made it to the other side! But then there was another challenge – the mud. He eased on the gas- we started sliding – first to the right, then to the left…. then some more to the left! Yeah, we thought we were going to hit something and overturn!!! The driver kept gunnin’ the engine, kept those wheels turning, the bus kept slidin’ until- finally – the wheels gripped some solid ground. Traction! Yay! We are outta there!

Down the home stretch now. We arrived at Maison Fortune approximately 4:30am – 12 hours after we first hit the road. We were here and we are safe! Thank you Lord for bringing us through. The driver, back up driver and teenager from the orphanage who rode along with us were like – “What’s the big deal? This is what we have to endure everyday in Haiti.

Now what? “COCK A DOODLE DO!” Aw, go back to sleep. Sunrise right around the corner. Breakfast anyone? How about Dinner! Maison’s cook had prepared a fine meal of – what else? – Goat, rice and beans and salad – YUM-MY!!! I was hungry. Couldn’t wait to exhale – I mean- INHALE every bite. Everyone else was dead – tired and ready for the sack.

DAY ONE- MISSION HAITI is over.

Stay tuned for more on the rest of the trip. And check this space for pictures and video – also on WAVY NEWS TEN soon!

Don

Three, two, and one. Sound up full, take intern!

Hi, I’m Kelsey, the Wavy sports intern for the summer. I started this internship back in May and was quickly introduced to the sports team. Brian Parsons, Chris Reckling, Ahmed Fareed, and of course Bruce Rader. When I first started this internship I was told, “At the end of the summer, you may not know if the media world is where you want to be, but you’ll definitely know if it’s NOT where you want to be.” Needless to say I was a little scared because, well, I have no plan B. Fortunately, this internship has proved not only informative and educational, but also a whole lot of fun, because there really is never a dull minute within the sports department.

So, what does a Wavy sports intern actually do? It’s a lot of observing, whether I’m watching interviews with Tides athletes, horse trainers, or World Series bound poker players or simply watching the news from the control room, I’m learning a lot. And I hope I can take all I’ve learned so far and put it to good use tomorrow, when I conduct my own interview. I came up with some questions, but needless to say I’m still a little nervous. However, I think I’ve had some pretty good teachers, I mean if Bruce Rader can do it so can I. Well, I wish I could make it look that easy.

In Portsmouth, Kelsey Webb, for the sports blog.

A big thank you to all of you who participated in our 10 on Your Side “Shred-It event” on Saturday, May 16.

Hundreds of people came out, many arrived early, to have their personal documents shredded in the big mobile shredding trucks. In exchange for the service that helps protect your identity, participants brought non-perishable goods for the Foodbank of Southeastern Virginia.

We collected more than 3500 pounds of food for needy families.
Volunteers from Jackson-Hewitt tax services and the Foodbank helped out.

I was at the College Park Shopping Center in Virginia Beach, while Eric Harryman was at the Willow Oaks Shopping Center in Hampton.
The weather was threatening with dark clouds looming most of the time and a few downpours, but it didn’t keep people away.

It was nice to meet new people and reunite with old friends.
We hope to see you at our next Shred-it event in July. Keep checking out wavy.com for exact locations, date and time.

Nope. Not Friday yet.

But, there’s definitely something to look forward to when the day does finally roll around. On Fox 43 News at 7, we’ve had some great times, welcoming musical guests from around Hampton Roads. Over the last few Friday mornings, we’ve been treated to performances by the Hunt Family Fiddlers, Julie Clark, The Michael Clark Band, and Narissa Bond, just to name a few.

Here I am with The Mike Aiken Band

and Lewis McGehee.

You can check out all of our musical performances at fox43tv.com. But you can catch a great act, live, this coming Friday.

The Annie Johnson Band will be in the house!!! We look forward to their high energy rock! See you on Friday morning!!