POLLS: Republicans pulling ahead in Statewide races: The average of this week’s polls shows Bob McDonnell (R) with 58% and Creigh Deeds (D) with 38%. This wide margin trickles down to the other offices Bill Bolling (R) showing a strong 13% lead over Jody Wagner (D) whose husband sent an email to supporters. Please read excerpt below. The McDonnell lead is also bringing along the controversial Ken Cuccinelli (R) over Steve Shannon (D). Cuccinelli’s lead somewhere around 10 points.

A lot has been made about Cuccinelli’s comments to the Virginian Pilot about whether he will fight for laws that stop discrimination against gays. Cuccinelli said he would enforce “natural” laws, and homosexuality is unnatural. He refused to back down from the statements several times when given the opportunity leading this reporter to make this conclusion: CUCCINELLI IS DOING EXACTLY WHAT HIS POLITICAL BASE WANTS HIM TO DO. He’s not backing down because he knows this plays, and is part of a strategy. A republican source blew off a question about whether this perceived bigotry could back fire. “I’m not worried about that at all, and I don’t know why you all are worried about it either.” Conclusion: solidify the base to win an election. Ironically, the more democrats make a big deal about Cuccinelli the more the base galvanizes around Cuccinelli. What remains unknown is whether the comments turn off independent voters in Northern Virginia where both candidates come from.

WHAT THE POST WROTE ABOUT CUCCINELLI:

In its editorial this morning, the Post blasted what it called Cuccinelli’s “bigotry,” adding that , “If he is elected attorney general, Mr. Cuccinelli would drive away qualified lawyers from an office that functions as the state government’s law firm, and, given his bizarre ideas, he would very likely become an embarrassment for the commonwealth.”

JODY WAGNER’S HUSBAND SENDS THIS MESSAGE TO SUPPORTERS:

Most everyone knows the names Michael, A Rod, Kobe, Brett and how they’re “winners”. They’re winners because they play smarter and harder than anyone else using their amazing talents to lead their entire teams to victory.

None of them do it alone – it’s the rock solid reliability and indomitable courage of their teammates that makes them all champions. When the stars get boxed out, double-teamed, or walked, the rest of the team steps up a makes the most of the opportunity.

We’ve been there for Jody – thousands of donors, volunteers, and supporters. Now the race is in its final lap, our opponents are pouring national money into television buys to attack Jody, and it’s time for us to step up once more and carry Jody to victory.

You were there early because you believed, and have been incredibly generous in every way imaginable throughout this race.
Now it’s time for all of us to be champions – to fight our hearts out, finish strong, and WIN!
LET’S DO THIS!!!
Thank you so very much,
- Alan
Alan L. Wagner, M.D., F.A.C.S

INTERESTING CONTRAST ON THE QUESTION, CAN YOU GIVE A GOOD REASON FOR VOTERS TO VOTE FOR YOUR OPPONENT?

DEEDS: You know, I can name you a thousand good reasons why they should vote for me. I’m the best-prepared person to be the next governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. … Bob is a guy that I’ve always gotten along with, but I get along with most people. I work hard to get along with people. I don’t agree with Bob on a great deal.

McDONNELL: He’s a good family man. He’s worked hard to represent his district well for 18 years. To me, he’s a good story of somebody living and accessing the American dream. You know, he tells the story about … first guy in his family to go to college with four $20 [bills] in his pocket and now he’s competing for the job held by Thomas Jefferson and Patrick Henry. To me, that’s a great story. I think there’s a hundred reasons why I’d be a better governor than him, but for the way, and this is his own personal life story, the way he has told it – it obviously happened because of tremendous hard work, tremendous perseverance to be able to get to the level that he is at, and I think that’s very admirable.

DEEDS CAMPAIGN TO CONTINUE ‘ALL IN FOR VIRGINIA’ TOUR
~ Governor Kaine, U.S. Senators Warner and Webb to Get Out the Vote for the Democratic Ticket ~
ALEXANDRIA – The Deeds-Wagner-Shannon ticket will continue a 4-day, 20-stop “All in for Virginia” tour on Saturday in Christiansburg.

TRUTH TRACKER: NEW ROUND OF ADS IN THE 21ST DISTRICT

A war of heated words is dominating a House of Delegates race in Virginia Beach. Delegate Bobby Mathieson and Virginia Beach City Councilman Ron Villanueva have spent tens of thousands of dollars in last minute media buys before election day Tuesday.

“Ron is lying,” says Del. Bobby Mathieson. “Bobby is a liar and ineffective” says Challenger Ron Villanueva who is a Virginia Beach City Councilman.

WHAT DOES THE TRUTH TRACKER SAY ABOUT THE ADS? Villanueva’s ad says “Bobby Mathieson was the only Virginia Beach delegate to allow felons to work on school property. Putting our kids at risk. What could he be thinking?”

TRUTH TRACKER finds that is TRUE, “Delegate Mathieson, it is true you were the only one in the Virginia Beach Delegation to vote for HB 1481. ” Mathieson answered, “Look, what Ron is saying is an outrageous lie…he is trying to discredit my 27 year police career…protecting families.”

But the TRUTH TRACKER found Mathieson did vote for House Bill No. 1481 which allows some felon Contractors on School Property. The Bill reads, “Any contractor or his employee disqualified due to a felony conviction…may request from the local School Board a waiver.” Restrictions include the felony must be at least five-years old, and can not include sex offenses or crimes against persons. ”

Mathieson refused 18 times to tell WAVY.com why he voted for that Bill that ended up defeated anyway, “Delegate I’ve asked you five times to explain why you voted for this Bill. Why did you vote for this Bill? ” Mathieson responded, “I’m giving you the same answer.” But that answer did not include the reason he voted for the Bill that was defeated anyway.

Challenger Ron Villanueva said, “We as elected officials stand by our records. Bobby Mathieson cast a bad vote on that day.”

WAVY.com continued trying to get an answer from Mathieson, “I voted as the record shows.” WAVY.com, “Do you regret the vote?” Mathieson, “Yes, I regret the vote and I’m thankful the bill never passed.” No thanks to Mathieson says Villanueva, “He voted ‘yes.’ You need to understand what you’re voting for. What was Bobby thinking?…thankfully it was defeated.”

Again, Mathieson says Villanueva is trying to discredit his 27 year Police career, “He’s trying to make me look like I’m soft on crime, and it’s a bold lie.”

Villanueva’s commercial touts the Councilman as the jobs man, “Ron Villanueva’s hard work created 14,000 new jobs.”

TRUTH TRACKER FINDS THAT’S FALSE. Villanueva didn’t create 14,000 new jobs as a City Councilman since 2002.

WAVY.com: “Your TV ad, Ron, says you created 14,000 new jobs.”
Villanueva: “I helped create the jobs.”
WAVY: “No you said ‘created’, not helped create.”
VILLANUEVA: “Andy, our voters know what we are talking about.”

Mathieson responded to that, “How expedient. Ron is speaking out of both sides of his mouth. First, he created the jobs himself, then when pressed says he helped create the jobs. You just can’t trust Villanueva.”

It is true Virginia Beach has 14,247 new jobs created in Virginia Beach since Villanueva took office. However, it should also be noted the unemployment in Virginia Beach when Villanueva took office was 3.4% in September 2002 and it is now 5.7% according to the Virginia Employment Commission.

TRUTH TRACKER: STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL-ISSUE: DEL. PHIL HAMILTON

They are fighting to become Virginia’s top prosecutor, but the big issue in the State Attorney General’s race isn’t nuances of law, it’s Newport News Delegate Phil Hamilton. State Senator Ken Cuccinelli is the Republican, and Delegate Steve Shannon is the Democrat. Both of these guys are in the General Assembly, and they serve with Delegate Phil Hamilton. It’s a classic case of colleagues politically fighting against each other.

Shannon’s ad states, “This is Ken Cuccinelli. He’s running for Attorney General. This is his political ally Delegate Phil Hamilton. Hamilton was caught arranging a 40,000 a year personal contract using state money.” Even Hamilton has admitted to the truth of the facts of the case.

The ad continues, “Every statewide candidate called on Phil Hamilton to resign except Ken Cuccinelli.” THAT IS TRUE. So the truth tracker asked Cuccinelli why he did not call for resignation, “In Phil Hamilton’s situation his case goes through the ethics investigation, and then that case can come to the Attorney General. Not the Attorney General’s office, but the Attorney General,” Cuccinelli says. THAT IS TRUE:
ACCORDING TO STATE CODE: “if legislator knowingly violated any law…it shall refer the matter by a written report setting forth its findings and the reasons therefor to the Attorney General.”

Cuccinelli claims the Attorney General should remain neutral, “the Attorney General is the gate keeper in that case. If Steve Shannon wins this race he will have to recuse himself from that matter because he has already prejudged it, and I have not.”

WAVY.com asked Shannon about Cuccinelli’s comments, “He said it was irresponsible for you to speak about the Hamilton case because you have to possibly
judge this.” Shannon responded, “If the Attorney General thinks the violation has occurred he or she refers that case to a Commonwealth’s Attorney.” THAT IS FALSE:
ACCORDING TO STATE CODE: “if legislator knowingly violated any law…it shall refer the matter by a written report setting forth its findings and the reasons therefor to the Attorney General for such action he deems appropriate.” “HE” is left up to the State Attorney General and not necessarily a Commonwealth’s Attorney.

Shannon also notes Cuccinelli did call for Hamilton to be taken off the powerful Appropriations Committee where he is the second ranking member. Cuccinelli’s campaign re-defined the comment to “take him off the Committee until the matter is resolved, so there is no appearance of impropriety.”

Cuccinelli also claims there was a payoff. He says Shannon received contributions from Hamilton’s opponent after he called for Hamilton to resign, “Within days of my opponent calling for Phil’s resignation he got a $40,000 donation from the law firm his opponent works for.” THAT IS TRUE.

Robin Abbott’s law firm
Consumer Litigation Associates
contributed $40,000 to Shannon on August 31.
The law firm is Shannon’s fifth largest contributor to date.

We asked Shannon about that, “Cuccinelli says there’s a quid-pro-quo. You came out, supported Abbott, and then you got a $40,000 contribution from the firm she works for.” Shannon responded, “Ken is getting desperate right now. He is struggling with the fact Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling have rejected his position on this, and he’s trying to figure his way out of it.”

We also asked Robin Abbot about the contributions, “The commitment to Mr. Shannon’s campaign from my law firm was made long before the Phil Hamilton story came out.” THAT IS TRUE: Shannon got his first $10,000 from Abbott’s law firm in March before the Hamilton story broke.

THAT’S TODAY’S BLOG
THREE DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY:
I’M ANDY FOX WAVY.COM

I’m Political Reporter Andy Fox and this week on the campaign trail brings us to a Will Rogers quote: Rogers said, “Politics has become so expensive that it takes a lot of money even to be defeated.”
FOLLOW THE MONEY

Below is the amount of money raised by the statewide candidates. Millions raised and spent just to lose:

Deeds For Governor : $3.5 Million raised in September
McDonnell for Governor: $3.8 million in September
Bolling for Lt. Governor $476,336 in September
Wagner for Lt. Governor $465,302 in September
Cuccinelli for Attorney General $672,814 in September
Shannon for Attorney General $532,575 in September

It is clearly evident the excuse “I didn’t have enough money to get out my message” will not apply in these races.

Locally, the most heavily contributed to campaign is 93rd race in Newport News
Del. Phil Hamilton (R) against Robin Abbott (D) .
Money contributed as of September 30:
Hamilton: $306,690 with cash on hand of $174,624
Abbott: $231,608 with cash on hand of $56,893.

Most of the money spent in this race has been spent on a barrage of direct mail.
Is it possible Hamilton after all he’s been through can win? Remember, he’s part of an ethics investigation for his $40,000 pay check from ODU after he won $500,000 for the school’s teaching center.
After he got the job, emails surfaced showing he lobbied for his job before getting the school the money suggesting a possible quid-pro-quo.
After all that-if Hamilton wins he will show an amazing strength among voters unmatched by any other politician in Hampton Roads.
Hamilton told me, “Andy, don’t count me out…the door to door campaign has been very positive…I think I’m going to win this race.”

FOLLOW WHO’S SHOWING UP TO HELP:

Saturday Sen. John McCain campaigned for Bob McDonnell.
Writing about McCain, A federal judge has ruled that Virginia violated the voting rights of military service members and other Americans living overseas when state elections officials failed to send them ballots for last year’s presidential election on time. The votes are the focus of a lawsuit filed by Republican candidate John McCain’s campaign, which alleged that they weren’t mailed in time for overseas voters to return them before the polls closed on November 4th, 2008.

Deeds will get help in the last 17 days of the campaign from President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton. Both will campaign with the Democratic ticket over the next two weeks.

FOLLOW THE POLLS:

Polls this week clearly show strength with the republican ticket.
RASMUSSEN REPORTS: McDonnell 50
Deeds 43
Mason Dixon: McDonnell 48, Deeds 40
Washington Post: McDonnell 53 Deeds 44.
Average: McDonnell 50.33 Deeds 42.33

Deeds running out of time. McDonnell’s average takes him above 50%

Those numbers taking Republicans Bolling and Cuccinelli up
Democrats Wagner and Shannon down.
In fact this was mass emailed from the jody Wagner campaign,

“Many of you have seen the recent public polling and may be asking yourselves how we plan win this race. This memo from Pete Brodnitz, our pollster, and David Eichenbaum, our media consultant, is a great explanation, so I want to share it with you.Their conclusion is simple: If we have the resources to communicate our message, we’ll come out on top. With your help, we’re going to do what it takes to win, including using our TV advertising to tell voters about Bill Bolling’s no-show record.”

Reading between the lines, Wagner needs money and is trying to relay to supporters the time is now, and time is running out…..

Deeds’ Voter turnout: A Washington Post Poll has some alarming
news for Deeds. Deeds the democrat needs African American voter turnout , and the Post poll found just 12% African American turnout in a 20% African American state.

FOLLOW THE ADS: THE ANATOMY OF A CAMPAIGN AD-THE TRUTH TRACKER

This week I reported on the Joe Bouchard for Delegate commercial against his republican challenger Dr. Chris Stolle.
The two are running against each other in the 83rd District Race.

CLAIM ONE: “Dr. Chris Stolle is the director of patient care at a local hospital.”
TRUTH: Stolle is Vice President for Medical Affairs…two different jobs with different responsibilities

CLAIM TWO: “But recent investigations found that on Chris Stolle’s watch, a 90 year old patient was a victim of severe neglect.”
TRUTH: The patient “claimed” severe neglect. However, we obtained a letter from The Department of Health and Human Services that investigated the claim and sent a letter to the hospital, “I am please to inform you as a result of the complaint…(the hospital) was found in compliance with the Medicare conditions of participation.” Stolle added, “No where in that report do they use the word neglect nor severe neglect, and they write we are please to tell you you are in compliance.”

CLAIM THREE: “Infant mortality rates at Stolle’s hospital are twice the national average.”
TRUTH: “The most recent statistics available show in the years 2006-2008 the National Average for Newborn Mortality .15%. Stolle’s Hospital .23%. That number would have to be .30% to be twice the national average as stated in the commercial.
Bouchard used information from earlier years 2004-2006.
The National Average .15%. Stolle’s Hospital .31%.

CLAIM FOUR: “and Stolle’s hospital has been accused of shoddy patient care including a botched surgery and a wrongful death.”
TRUTH: Accused, yes that’s true, but the fact is one case was dropped and the other is pending. “We see tens of thousands of patients every year, and this is what he talks about,” Stolle says.

The claims are refuted by the Truth Tracker. We wanted to question Bouchard about his ad, but he refused an on camera interview.

Bouchard gave us this statement: ” “My campaign ad speaks for itself. The facts are researched and documented. Chris Stolle…can’t hide the truth about his record overseeing the quality of patient care or the dangerous conditions that have existed on his watch.”

It was interesting that Bouchard refused an on camera interview to discuss an he’s spending thousands to run on TV.

Del. Bobby Mathieson chose the same strategy against Virginia beach City Councilman Ron Villanueva. Mathieson refused to discuss his ad that claims “He’s missed all or part of 105 City Council meetings.” That’s true, but what the ad doesn’t tell you
Villanueva attended 92% of the meetings. He also cast votes 93% of the time. That is true.
Mathieson also hit Villanueva for voting himself a $10,000 pay raise for council members. Villanueva says he will vote to roll that back due to tough economic conditions.
Amazingly, Mathieson refused an on camera interview. The campaign called me the next day saying they will do an interview-but ‘the next day’ was too late….

These are two races that are too close to call, and would be huge rebublican pickups….

That’s this week on the Campaign trail, I’m Andy Fox reporting.