jeremy wheeler

Snow Outlook: Saturday Night (Updated)

February 10th, 2012 at 8:44 am by under Weather

(UPDATE AT THE BOTTOM)

Alright, day after day….week after week.  The snow lovers have been asking me over and over.  When are we going to see some snow???  Well, we finally have a decent shot coming up over this weekend.  Now we’re not expecting anything like last year or the year before, but this will be something for the snow lovers to help satiate their hunger for snow.  Hopefully……  Of course at this time I would equate it to giving a small pizza roll to someone hoping to eat an extra large Italian pie.

Let’s start with today’s forecast and we’ll build up to the snow.  High pressure is in control today.  We’ll start with sunshine, but clouds will build through the afternoon.  With the southerly winds, high temperatures will get a boost up to the upper 50s.  It will be a nice day.

Today's Forecast

All of the models depict this shot at snow now.  This  is a big difference in the NAM from 24 hours ago which was very dry.  Because of the big change I have guarded optimism about the snow chances.  However, all models are in agreement at this time.  I’m basing this off of the 6z (overnight) runs of the models.  I’ll try and do a quick update if the 12z (morning) models come in differently.  Here is our latest model run.  It shows rain showers changing over to snow showers by 7pm tomorrow evening.

Future Trak 7pm Saturday

Now our computer model is a bit different from the others in that it shows a second surge of moisture around 4am on Sunday.

Future Trak Sunday 4AM

The first shot of snow is more likely going to affect the Peninsula Northward, but if we get that second shot of snow, then a dusting is possible all the way down into North Carolina.  Again, the NAM and the GFS (the common models we use) are in agreement with the snow, but the Hi-Resolution WRF (a very detailed model), has very little snow at all.  It only has a light dusting for the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore.  I definitely need to see the morning update of that before I get really confident in this forecast.

I put the snow machine (a fun graphic I use on-air) at a 30% due to the wild swing from yesterday and the dry run of the hi-res WRF.  It’s possible at midday that I will update it to 50%.  That’s not a toss up. That’s a good shot at snow. Remember that is for accumulating snow of anything more than a dusting.  Either way I say we have a decent shot of at least something falling out of the sky.  The ground should be pretty warm, but the snow may come down briefly heavy.  This can overcome the warm surface temps.  So a lot of what falls will be on the grass and elevated surfaces, but it’s easily possible to get some snow to stick on the secondary roadways north of the metro by Sunday morning.  Before I move on, I need to mention that the wind will be very strong on Saturday.  They will be Northwest at 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph.  Remember this is usually a drying wind so that could impact the forecast if the models haven’t accounted for downsloping.
After that we will have a cold day on Sunday.  Lows will be in the 20s.  Highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.  At least we’ll have sunshine on Sunday.  Monday will also start in the 20s and will finish in the mid 40s.  I mentioned it before, but the blooming plants will probably take a hit this weekend with the solid freezing temperatures in place.  If you have outdoor prized plants that are blooming, then you will want to cover them up this weekend with some mulch and perhaps some plastic.  Just make sure that stuff doesn’t blow away.
(UPDATE: We looked at the morning runs of the computer models, and they are pretty much in line with previous thinking.  I have not changed the snowfall map that much.  However, I put the chance for accumulating snow up to 50% on the Snow Machine.  I think 60% for the Peninsula and 40% for the southside.  So that averages to 50% for the metro.  Jeff Edmondson will have an update later this afternoon if there are any changes.)
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler
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Midday Update

December 15th, 2010 at 1:25 pm by under Uncategorized, Weather

While the previous blog had a lot of good information, I wanted to update things based off of the latest models and National Weather Service.  There is now a Winter Storm Watch in effect for Surry and Sussex counties for tomorrow.

Winter Storm Watch

You can bet that there will be more advisories and/or warnings for tomorrow’s event.  I’ve updated my snow forecast totals:

Snow Forecast

The NAM model came in with a sensible scenario.  It’s raw data came up with just under 5 inches for the area.  However, our model still is forecasting 1-2″ with higher amounts in the Watch area.  The GFS is very aggressive on precipitation.  However, it also warms things up and brings rain to the region.

Check out my previous blog. It has a lot of details about the models and also talks about the system for Saturday night/early Sunday.

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