Things have been relatively quiet in the tropics lately, but now the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on two areas of interest.  One in the south Atlantic only has a low chance for development in the next 48 hours, but the other to the north was just named Tropical Storm Grace.  It looks pretty healthy on satellite and is expected to move toward the British Isles.

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

A third named storm, Tropical Storm Claudette, joined Ana and Bill today.  Claudette is making landfall over the panhandle of Florida tonight.  Heavy rain and flash flooding will be the primary threats tonight into Monday morning over the Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama. 

Ana has weakened to a Tropical Depression in the Atlantic and Tropical Storm Bill continues to strengthen and will likely become a hurricane within the next 12 hours.  Bill’s forecast track is interesting.  It could either curl back out in the Atlantic Ocean (as many computer models are indicating) and not bother any landmasses, or it could threaten parts of the East Coast by next weekend.  Stay tuned for the latest updates.

Ana, Bill and Claudette

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

Hurricane season is off to a slow start this year.  In fact right now, 2009 is #5 in the top latest hurricane season starts since 1954. 

2009 just replaced 2004 (Alex formed on July 31 of that year).  The top four years are:

#4  Andrew:  August 16, 1992

#3  Alma:  August 26, 1962

#2 Arlene:  August 28, 1967

#1 Anita: August 29, 1977

However, just because this hurricane season is starting “later than usual,” doesn’t mean we won’t have powerful hurricanes this year.  Look at #4 on the list above.  Remember Hurricane Andrew that roared through south Florida in 1992?

Just some food for thought. 

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

As July nears a close the tropics are still quiet.  We have yet to have a named storm this hurricane season.  However, this isn’t that unusual.  Here is a graphic showing the typical peak of hurricane season.

Activity typically picks up in the tropics during the month of August with a peak in mid-September.  By September ocean waters in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are at their warmest. 

This year could be interesting though.  With the development of El Nino, it may be difficult for tropical systems to form and maintain themselves.  During an El Nino, upper-level winds in the tropical Atlantic tend to be stronger which can “blow the tops of thunderstorms,” hence reducing chances for further development.

We’ll keep an eye on the tropics, but for now, all is quiet.

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson