National Republican Chair Michael Steele told WAVY.com, “Bob ran a campaign that reached out.  He won back independents…no one cared about his 1989 Thesis because they care about jobs.  They care about roads. They care about education.”

Early results show Deeds failed to generate the needed turnout in African American Communities, women and Hispanics.

Republicans are using the victories tonight in Virginia to re-energize a Republican Party that has failed to win a gubernatorial race since 1997.

“Andy, I know folks think I’m behind, but you know me-I’m a closer,” Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds told me. If Deeds can pull this out, he would become the best “Closer” in Virginia Political History. That is, except for Doug Wilder who was the best closer in 1989, becoming the first elected African American Governor. Wilder chose not to endorse Deeds because of his stance on guns, and his willingness to raise taxes if necessary to fund road improvements.

MAYBE NOT WILDER, BUT DEEDS HAS PRESIDENT OBAMA.

President Barack Obama is appearing in a new television advertisement for Creigh Deeds and plans to campaign with the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Norfolk. President Obama will be with Deeds at the Ted Constant Center at ODU on Tuesday. The new President Obama ad is a powerful 30-second spot and features Mr. Obama calling on Virginia voters to get “fired up” to elect Deeds on Nov. 3. It is by far Deeds most powerful commercial to date, and probably his most important.

POLLS: MCDONNELL STILL UP-Pulling ahead

The average of the three polls out this week on the Gubernatorial race: Bob McDonnell leading Creigh Deeds 52-37.

NEW MCDONNELL AD:

McDonnell ad pushes Jobs: Continues Focus on Creating New Jobs; Notes Business Endorsements and Commitment to Keeping Taxes Low and Getting Spending under Control; Contrasts with Deeds’ Plan to Raise Taxes on Virginians.

In a campaign about jobs and the economy, McDonnell has been endorsed by The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce, Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Virginia Farm Bureau Federation, Virginia Realtors, the Virginia Credit Union League, the Virginia Chapter of the Associated Builders and Contractors, the Vietnamese American National Chamber of Commerce and The Northern Virginia Technology Council.

DEEDS GETS BIG ENDORSEMENT TOO: The RICHMOND FREE PRESS: DEEDS FOR GOVERNOR. This newspaper focuses on the African American Community essential to any shot Deeds has.

The Richmond Free Press wrote, “Creigh Deeds is an authentic, decent man, with moderate sensibilities. With a self-effacing demeanor that often defies the hype found in much of today’s politics, Sen. Deeds is a real, unpretentious, regular guy who takes responsibility for what he says and does.”

GOTV: DURING THESE LAST DAYS IT’S ALL ABOUT GETTING OUT THE VOTE.

Deeds will spend the weekend at the

NAACP “MEET THE CANDIDATES” FORUM. Sen. Deeds will join Bob McDonnell at the “Meet the Candidates” Forum hosted by the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People at Virginia State University.

Deeds spends Saturday getting out the vote with Senator Mark Warner in Lynchburg, then in Roanoke, then in Blacksburg

(McDonnell-)

This week’s TRUTH TRACKER TRACKS THE TRUTH IN THE ADS FOR

Lt. Governor now showing on WAVY-TV.

It’s the second highest statewide position in Virginia. #2 on the ballot, and the race is political-nasty where Lieutenant Governor Republican Incumbent Bill Bolling is running against Democrat Jody Wagner

The Jody Wagner commercial begins, “If you never showed up for work would you get paid?”

Jody Wagner claims Lt. Governor Bill Bolling’s not showing up for work. The ad continues, “In four years as Lt. Governor Bill Bolling has showed up for state board and commission meetings only six percent of the time, in four years missed 63 of 67 state meetings.”

THE TRUTH TRACKER FINDS THAT’S TRUE, we asked Bolling what’s going on, “Why did you miss all those meetings?” Bolling responded with this explanation, “She is picking and choosing which meetings to note in the commercial…I’ve personally attended 80% of those meetings, and the ones that are not mandatory for me to attend are attended by members of my staff…just like all the other Lt. Governors that served before me,” Bolling told us by phone.

But Hold on, what Wagner’s ad doesn’t say is the only constitutional responsibility of the Lt. Governor is to preside over the State Senate as President of the Senate. “The Lt. Governor which is a part-time position has two constitutional duties one is to take over for the Governor if something happens to him, and the second is to preside over the Senate. Since I’ve been Lt. Governor, I’ve served as President of the Senate 200 days, and I’ve been there for everyone of those days.”

What about Bolling’s ad? It goes, “Jody Wagner isn’t telling the truth about Bill Bolling. It’s the Wagner, Deeds plan: personal attacks, lies, higher taxes. ”

Higher Taxes- That’s false. Wagner’s never voted for higher taxes because she’s never held elective office. That’s a point she pounces on, “I have never voted for a tax increase and I wouldn’t vote for one now. Times are tough, and families are hurting, and it’s the wrong thing to do,” Wagner says.

We asked Bolling about that, “She doesn’t support high gas taxes. She says that’s not true.” Bolling responded, “She says different things to different groups. The Washington Post quoted her,” Bolling said.

That’s true: The Post did run a headline suggesting that. The Ad says, “The Washington Post reports Wagner supports high gas taxes, “Bring it on” Jody Wagner on higher gas taxes.”

The story ran Oct 13.

THAT’S TRUE: The Post did write that, but Wagner claims a misleading headline, “That is not what I said…that is not what I believe.” Wagner’s been hit by an old political adage, “In politics, if you’re explaining then you’re losing.”

Bolling counters Wagner as a member of former Governor Mark Warner’s administration and current Governor Tim Kaine’s administration she supported their efforts to raise taxes, “Kaine described his proposal as “a fiscally responsible plan that addresses our transportation challenges in creative ways.” As Kaine’s finance secretary, Wagner, was quoted as saying Kaine’s plan “ensures accountability, balances the transportation budget, and changes the way that we do business in Virginia with respect to transportation.”

The Bolling campaign uses Wagner as “Guilt by Association” keeping in mind Wagner has never voted for any tax increase because she’s never held elective office.

Wagner with the last word, “I have never voted to raise taxes, and during these tough economic times do not support raising taxes.”

That’s this week’s blog. On the campaign trail, I’m Political Reporter Andy Fox.

The Washington Post Poll shows Republican Bob McDonnell moving ahead. As I reported last week, this is a critical time in the Gubernatorial race. Voters usually make decisions in the 3rd and 4th week before the election. As of this writing on 10-10, we have 24 days to election day, and Post gave McDonnell some great news. He has clearly moved ahead in the race. The Post poll shows McDonnell with a 53-44 lead. REASONS: As we’ve reported, Deeds needs African American turnout to win. He’s done if he doesn’t get at least 60 percent voter turnout in that community. What do we know? We know Deeds did not do well in that community in the Primary. We know former Governor L. Douglas Wilder is not campaigning for him. We now know a source inside the OBAMA White House is quoted as saying, “Creigh Deeds has not been the world’s greatest candidate, that’s for sure,” one senior administration official said. Post Poll: McDonnell 53- Deeds 44: Lt. Governor Bolling 49 Wagner 40 Attorney General Cuccinelli 49 Shannon 40. Could it be a GOP sweep?

MESSAGE TO DEEDS CAMPAIGN:
Secure your base. You absolutely need to spend time campaigning in the Hampton Roads African American Communities to counter McDonnell’s strength in this region since he’s from Virginia Beach. Yet, look at Deed’s public schedule this weekend: Henrico County, Petersburg-with Tim and Daphne Reid, Suffolk, Alberta Va, Emporia. No Hampton Roads.

PALIN OUT:
Source claims McDonnell campaign told Sarah Palin to stay away. Politico reports “The governor offered her assistance,” said Palin adviser Meg Stapleton. “The ball is in their court.” McDonnell trying to stay as close to the middle as he can get. Has momentum, and doesn’t want to mess it up.

WAGNER ENDORSED:
Jody Wagner endorsed by the The Hampton Roads Business PAC for Lieutenant Governor. The Business PAC is a public policy committee of the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce. No surprise because Wagner is a 27-year resident of Virginia Beach and a small business owner.

OUR FRIEND JOHN WARNER IN TOWN:

Former U.S. Senator John Warner was in town, and I asked him about the political climate in Washington and in Virginia. Warner said, “Andy, there’s too much political fighting to get anything done…too much anger…there needs to be a new level of bi-partisanship.” That is a very interesting observation from a man who served in the Senate 30 years. The observation is this: with all the hoopla over President Obama and ‘time for change’ after all is said and done in Washington, the more things change….the more they stay the same. By the way, Senator Warner looks great. In his 80th year he is strong, sharp, funny, in his element. He is going around the world talking about Global Warming.

POLITICAL COMMERCIALS; TRUTH TRACKERS:

Every Wednesday on WAVY-TV I will report on the Campaign Commericals.
This week the ads once again defined by two issues: Deeds hitting McDonnell on his 20 year old thesis. McDonnell hitting Deeds on raising taxes which is an old bullet in the GOP arsenal

The ads are pretty much true. McDonnell did write on page 40 of his thesis at Regent University, “a new trend of working women and feminists that is ultimately detrimental to the family.” He can’t explain it except to say, “If anyone interprets this that I am opposed to women in the work place then I am sorry because that is not what I believe.” Incidentally, in case you want to know that first McDonnell statement came after this one,
“federal child-care programs cost more than $6.9 Billion in 1988.”
The point of the statement is according to McDonnell if a parent were at home, likely the woman, we would spend less tax dollars on federal child-care.

McDonnell counters the Deeds’ campaign showing working women who support McDonnell. The problem is they come from the State Attorney General’s Office that McDonnell once led. State conflict of interest laws prohibit state workers from openly working and promoting political candidates. The current State Attorney General and McDonnell ally Bill Mims says conflict of interest was not violated because it is true the workers were off the clock when taping the ads.

McDonnell’s big issue against Deeds seems to be taxes. A Deeds’ ad profiles support from U.S. Senator Mark Warner who is also a former Governor, AD: “Creigh Deeds will keep taxes low,” Warner says in the ad. It is true, however, that Deeds has said he will support bi-partisan supported taxes specifically for transportation. He also received loud applause from a recent Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce event when he said “We have to be serious about finding new money for roads.”

McDonnell is now running an ad that shows Deeds having a tough time explaining his position. He is surrounded by reporters who are peppering him with questions about taxes after a September debate. Deeds is heard saying in the AD: “I meant in the general sense of the term. In the general term, that I’m not going to raise general fund taxes.” The ad pounces on Deeds who seems to be hemming and hawing whether he supports raising taxes for roads, AD: “I know we are going to have to raise money for transportation,” Deeds admits.

That’s this week’s blog from the Campaign Trail- I’m political reporter Andy Fox.

POLLS:
A political campaign is ebb and flow. One week you’re up, and the next you’re down. Moments can turn an election. This week Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Bob McDonnell got good news in the polls. He is trending higher in recent polls. I often look at Real Clear Politics that does a good job summarizing the week in polls.
This week McDonnell’s average is 49.5% to Democratic Challenger St. Sen. Creigh Deeds 42.5%.
However, I’m reminded what my friend Doug Wilder told me one time when I was covering his historic election in 1989: I asked him about his declining poll numbers in the election, and he said, “Andy, the only poll that counts is the poll that’s taken once the polls close.” He then went on to become the first elected African American Governor.
STATE ATTORNEY GENERAL:
These guys from Northern Virginia must get out of NOVA and get down here to Hampton Roads. State Delegate Steve Shannon (D) Vienna faces St. Sen. Ken Cuccinelli (R) Fairfax.
They both are on air with ads, but their schedule shows to much NOVA.
This just in: I just got an email from the Shannon Campaign. He will be with U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Newport News) Saturday.
Cuccinelli still showing this weekend, four weeks out from election day, in NOVA.
I interviewed both candidates over the phone this week. These phoner updates on the campaign allow the candidates to get another free hit on TV while continuing to campaign in other parts of the state.
I don’t think they work very well because the voters feel no connection to them through a “phoner.”
During the phoner Shannon boasted his endorsement from the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce. Why the State Attorney General cares about the Chamber, you ask? Well, both of these guys are from NOVA, and head to head the Chamber decided to support Shannon. The Chamber is also supporting Republican Bob McDonnell. I asked Shannon how come he got the Chamber endorsement and his running mate Deeds did not? His wishy-washy answer was basically, each candidate’s different. Fact is Deeds could sure use a Chamber of Commerce endorsement. He’s getting hit on his statements to raise new revenues (taxes) for new roads. A new McDonnell commercial now showing on WAVY-TV shows a stumbling bumbling Creigh Deeds trying to explain his position on taxes. The McDonnell campaign took Deeds at his worst trying to explain how new taxes need to be dedicated to new roads. Deeds is actually very clear and articulate that new roads can not be built with old revenue sources like the General Fund as McDonnell proposes.
Cuccinelli unveiled a very thoughtful mental health agenda in his phoner campaign update. He is pushing for more emphasis on community based mental health programs rather that institutional solutions.
ENDORSEMENTS: Cuccinelli-NRA, Fraternal Order of Police, Shannon-Fairfax Chamber, Police benevolent Association, McDonnell-Northern VA. Technology Council, Deeds formed Sportsmen for Deeds to counter NRA for McDonnell. Deeds also got the endorsement of former Republican Governor Linwood Holton. It should be noted that Holton is Democratic Governor Tim Kaine’s father-in-law.
ADS:
Deeds continues to hit McDonnell for his 1989 thesis he wrote at what is now Regent University. In it he said working women are detriments to the traditional family. Friday McDonnell’s campaign launched new television ads featuring women who worked for him and support him. The problem is some are state workers and although it may not be illegal it is almost unheard of that state workers are involved in political campaigns.
Here’s a transcript for what they say about McDonnell.
In “TRUST,” Women say:
Karen Fortier, Former Assistant Commonwealth’s Attorney: “Creigh Deeds’ attacks on Bob McDonnell are false”
Lisa Caruso, Commonwealth’s Attorney: “Dishonest”
Pam Watts, Co-worker 17 years: “Are dishonest”
Lisa Hicks Thomas, Deputy Attorney General: “Half the Deputy Attorneys General Bob McDonnell appointed are women”
Lisa Caruso, Commonwealth’s Attorney: “Putting women in positions of authority”
Pam Watts, Co-worker 17 years: “Trusting women like me”
Flora Hezel, Former Assistant Attorney General: “Professional women and working mothers”
Maureen Matsen, Deputy Attorney General: “Women Bob McDonnell trusts to protect Virginia”
Lisa Hicks Thomas, Deputy Attorney General: “Prosecuting sexual predators with laws passed by Bob McDonnell”
Polly Franks, Victims Advocate: “I’ve seen Bob McDonnell stand up to protect women and children”
Lisa Hicks Thomas, Deputy Attorney General: “That’s what Bob McDonnell will do as Governor.”
Close McDonnell friend and current State Attorney General Bill Mims says any state worker supporting McDonnell is doing so on his/her own time and away from the office.
Noted political analyst Larry Sabato from UVA wrote in the Washington Post about McDonnell’s thesis: “He’s danced around it,” Sabato said. “You’ve had the formulations in the paper: ‘Well, that was a long time ago,’ and ‘Here’s my daughter.’ He hasn’t said, ‘I don’t believe that working women hurt the family.’ He has to repudiate it, and he hasn’t because he’s worried about offending the social conservatives who still believe that.”
FACT CHECK: The polls are trending towards McDonnell. It appears Deeds needs a new issue other than the thesis, or atleast needs another issue in order to sway independent undecideds towards him.
That’s this week on the Campaign Trail.

Thanks for reading, I’m Andy Fox-WAVY.com