Coolness, Gonzalo, & Snowy Winter?

October 16th, 2014 at 9:03 am by under Weather

We did have the rain yesterday, but luckily we didn’t have any severe weather in the region.  A pocket of drier air in the mid levels and lots of clouds helped to limit the bad weather in the region.  The rain totals weren’t too bad.  We had about 3/4″ up to 1″ from the Peninsula northward with 0.25″ to about 0.5″  for the Southside, Eastern Shore, and northeast North Carolina.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

Another reason that we probably didn’t see strong storms was that the cold front moved way out ahead of the upper level low.  Today that will play a part in our forecast.  For instance…this morning we had a lot of sunshine and cooler temperatures behind the front.  The rain had pushed well offshore.  Other than some patchy light fog it was a nice morning.  However, the upper level low still hasn’t passed through yet.  It is off to our west.

Sattelite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

So as the upper level pocket of energy moves into Hampton Roads this afternoon we’ll see the clouds increase, and a couple of sprinkles will form.  Highs will be in the low/mid 70s.  By tomorrow this system will push out to sea.  So we’ll have lots of sunshine.  However, the winds will be more northerly.  So we’ll hold onto the highs in the low 70s.  Another weak upper level low will move through on Saturday, but it only looks to increase the clouds for now.  Then more sunshine on Sunday.  Highs will be in the 70s on Saturday, but cooler air will surge into the region on Sunday.  So highs will be in the 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

Speaking of cooler weather…. The Winter forecast is still up in the air a bit.  (No pun intended) However, there are some signs that it really could be as snowy and wintry as some sources are suggesting.  One big indicator for the Winter forecast is the amount of snowpack over Siberia.  Yep, the geographic area over Asia.  There is more and more research on how snowpack in Siberia is linked to U.S. snowfall through teleconnections.    Here is a new article with an update on the current snowpack, and the possible effects it could have on global weather.  Siberia Snowpack.   This is not the only thing to watch, but signs are pointing to a colder snowier Winter at this point.  We’ll see what happens in October.

Last, but not least… Hurricane Gonzalo is still a major hurricane.  It went up to category 4 (winds of  130-156mph) status yesterday.  Then it went back down last night to a cat 3.  This morning the 5 am update came in very early.  At that time the National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm to a category 4 again. What happened was that the eye went under an eyewall replacement cycle.   It even disappeared on satellite, but then came back this morning.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

The storm was over 500 miles SSW of Bermuda and was moving north.  Sustained winds were at 140mph.  The hurricane is forecast to head straight towards Bermuda in the next 36 hours.  This is terrible news for the island.  In fact it is currently forecast to move over Bermuda as a major hurricane on Friday.   Damaging winds and possible flooding are forecast for the region along with high waves.  This could be the most destructive storm to hit there since hurricane Fabian in 2003.  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Nicole’s Notes: Great food, great event, great cause!

October 15th, 2014 at 9:42 pm by under News, Personalities, The Hampton Roads Show, Uncategorized

Another great year of food, fun, and an auction to benefit the March of Dimes. The Signature Chefs event was held Sunday, October 12 at the Founders Inn and Spa in Virginia Beach.

March Of Dimes Signature Chefs' dishes

March Of Dimes Signature Chefs’ dishes

Local chefs whipped up a variety of dishes and donated culinary and travel packages to the live auction.

Chris Reckling emceeing

Chris Reckling emceeing

Nicole and Chris Reckling Photo from Wayne Pellenberg

Nicole and Chris Reckling
Photo from Wayne Pellenberg

Chris Reckling, co-host of the Hampton Roads Show was the emcee. I’ve emceed this event for the past several years, but attended as a guest with my dad and sister. The March of Dimes did ask me to fulfill a favor and participate by introducing a special honoree.

Nicole introducing Brian Winfield. Photo from Wayne Pellenberg

Nicole introducing Brian Winfield.
Photo from Wayne Pellenberg

I was honored to tell the guests about Brian Winfield. With the blessing of his lovely wife of 41 years, Carol, he has worked hard to volunteer and raise money for the organization.

Honoree and longtime volunteer Brian Winfield with family Photo from Wayne Pellenberg

Honoree and longtime volunteer Brian Winfield with family
Photo from Wayne Pellenberg

Honoree Brian Winfield speaking about his years of volunteering for the March of Dimes Photo from Wayne Pellenberg

Honoree Brian Winfield speaking about his years of volunteering for the March of Dimes
Photo from Wayne Pellenberg

Over the past three decades, Brian convinced people to participate in walks in Virginia Beach and Norfolk, volunteer and help raise funds for the organization so the research can continue to help premature babies and their mothers.

Honoree Brian Winfield speaking to guests Photo from Wayne Pellenberg

Honoree Brian Winfield speaking to guests
Photo from Wayne Pellenberg

He told the guests his healthy children and grandchildren inspired him to do his part to make sure other children stood a chance. Mr. Winfield’s family was there to cheer him on for this honor.

Guests at the March Of Dimes Signature Chefs Auction

Guests at the March Of Dimes Signature Chefs Auction

Susan Smith from the March of Dimes told me they raised $100,000!  Special recognition to Chef John Maclure from Tradewinds Restaurant in Virginia Beach for “Most Outstanding Presentation” and Chef Melinda Wilkins from Culinary Institute of Virginia won “Best Dessert”.

The food was great, the music was good and there was such a wonderful spirit in the air. It’s an event I always look forward to!

Nicole with Stephanie Cooke, Executive Producer of The Hampton Roads Show

Nicole with Stephanie Cooke, Executive Producer of The Hampton Roads Show

Chris Reckling and Nicole Livas

Chris Reckling and Nicole Livas

If you want to help the March of Dimes, check out their webpage for volunteer opportunities and to donate money.

(Special thanks to  Wayne Pellenberg, Neptune Video Creations LLC for the professional pictures from the night of the event.)

 

 


Wednesday Midday Update

October 15th, 2014 at 1:21 pm by under Weather

So far we have seen scattered showers this morning. Now, the main line of showers and storms is pushing into our western counties. The large area of rain will be in the metro area in the next hour or so, between 2-3 PM. Heavy rain and gusty winds will still be the main threats.  Our instability remains limited, which is why we haven’t seen many thunderstorms. A few may develop this afternoon, but this is not looking like a big severe weather event. Our latest hi-resolution computer model has widespread showers and storms by 3 PM.

Future Trak at 3 PM Weds

Future Trak at 3 PM Weds

Rain looks to become more scattered by the 5 PM, so the evening commute may not be that bad.

Future Trak at 5 PM Weds

Future Trak at 5 PM Weds

The cold front will move through Hampton Roads from west to east early this evening. Rain will taper off before midnight, so Thursday is looking much drier. We should start off with a mix of sun and clouds Thursday morning. Then the clouds will fill back in thanks to an upper level low overhead. We may even see a few sprinkles by Thursday evening. Cooler and drier weather is expected Friday through the weekend. Meteorologist Don Slater and I will have a full update coming up on WAVY News 10 starting at 4 PM.

In the tropics, Gonzalo is now a Category 4 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. This is the first category 4 storm since Ophelia back in 2011. This major hurricane will impact Bermuda early Friday. Gonzalo will stay away from the U.S.

Hurricane Gonzalo

Hurricane Gonzalo

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Strong Storms And Hurricane Gonzalo

October 15th, 2014 at 8:49 am by under Weather

No doubt that there’s been some rough weather to our west over the past couple of days.  A powerful system has brought numerous reports of severe weather to the Deep South and the Midwest.   As the system moved east it is lost some of its energy.  However, we could still see a few strong storms in our region today.

A cold front was the focus for a long line of showers and storms since the overnight hours.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The line was moving very slowly to the east.  Meanwhile we’ve had a few showers moving up from the south ahead of the line.  We will be ahead of the front during the day.  The low level winds will be very strong.  Surface winds will gust up to 30mph.  This will let the temperatures climb into the low 80s this afternoon.  Also, the moisture is continuing to pool into the region.  The line of storms will slowly edge east through the day.  We may see a brief break in the clouds and rain, but this will be short lived.  Here is what our Future Trak model shows for noon:

Future Trak (Noon)

Future Trak (Noon)

If we do get some sunshine, then it will add to our instability.  Then the storms will feed off of this between noon and 3pm.  Wind shear is fairly high today, but the instability should be somewhat limited.   The main threat from the storms will be strong gusty winds over 45mph.  Also, heavy rain will be a threat as well.  Hail should be very limited.  An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, but the chance is very low.  The showers and storms will still be going into the evening, but they should be a bit more scattered at that time.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

The showers and storms will taper off through the late evening.  The cold front will finally move through in the late evening hours between about 9pm and midnight.  All-in-all we are looking at about an inch of rain in the region.  A few locations will see over an inch and a half.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

By tomorrow we’ll see much quieter/cooler weather.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  We may see some sunshine in the morning, but we’ll have an increase in clouds during the afternoon.  The upper level low will push through the region at that time.  So we could even see a few sprinkles.  Shouldn’t be much.  Then we’ll finally dry out by Thursday night.  Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look great. We’ll see lots of sunshine and highs in the 60s and 70s.

Hurricane Gonzalo is churning over the central Atlantic waters.  It has sustained winds of 125mph.  This is a category 3 hurricane.  It was located about 650 miles south of Bermuda, and was moving northwest at 13mph.  The hurricane lost its eye for a bit this morning. Then it re-formed.  But it was much smaller than it was last night.

Gonzalo On Satellite

Gonzalo On Satellite

The storm is forecast to move more to the north today, and then north-northeast by tonight.  Gonzalo is encountering some wind shear and a little drier air.  Soon it will also move over cooler waters.  So it’s possible that it will weaken a bit as it heads towards Bermuda.  However, the latest forecast still has it as a major hurricane as it approaches the island tomorrow.

Gonzalo Forecast

Gonzalo Forecast

This could really disrupt things over Bermuda.  They not only just had hurricane Fay, but overall they have had a lot of storms over the last few years.  In fact Bermuda has seen more than twice as much tropical activity as the state of Florida over the last few years.

We’ll see some waves come in from Gonzalo.  We are looking at some 4 foot waves today with a few 5 footers possible.  Friday and Saturday could see some 5 foot waves with a few 6 footers.  Stay tuned for updates to all of this.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Warm, Windy & Stormy Wednesday

October 14th, 2014 at 9:18 pm by under Weather

Changes are coming over the next 12-24 hours. We have been tracking a very powerful storm system that has brought severe weather to many states over the past few days. This cold front will move into Hampton Roads tomorrow evening.

Tracking The Cold Front

Tracking The Cold Front

I think the rain will stay off to our west overnight, but we may see showers and storms fire up early tomorrow morning around 7 AM. Any discrete storm will have the potential to turn strong, even during the morning hours.

Future Trak at 7 AM Weds

Future Trak at 7 AM Weds

It looks like we may get a break for a few hours before a second line of showers and storms moves through the region. This second round of storms could also be strong, but that highly depends on what happens in the morning. If we see more rain and more clouds in the morning, then the storms will be weaker during the afternoon. If we see more sunshine in the morning, then the storms that develop during the afternoon will have more instability to work with.

Future Trak at 3 PM Wednesday

Future Trak at 3 PM Wednesday

The best chance for rain and storms will be between 1-7 PM. The main threats with any storm will be the chance for damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. The tornado threat is low, but not out of the question. This system has a lot of energy along with it, so we will have plenty of wind shear in the atmosphere. Forecast rain totals are going to be about 1 inch on average. However, if you get stuck under a thunderstorm, then you could see higher totals. Wednesday will still be warm and windy with highs around 80° and southerly winds from 15-25mph. The front will clear most of the area just after sunset. We could see a few lingering showers Wednesday night, but the storm threat will be over. The latest computer models are pushing the rain out a little bit earlier on Thursday. Rain should be done before 8 AM on Thursday. Clouds should break up a bit by Thursday afternoon. Then we will see the clouds build back in thanks to the upper level low sitting overhead. There may even be a few sprinkles by Thursday night. Cooler and drier weather will be back just in time for the weekend.

Tropical Update:

Hurricane Gonzalo is now a category 3 storm and the second major hurricane of the year. Gonzalo will continue to strengthen and is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane at some point tomorrow. This storm will move right over Bermuda on Friday, so the island needs to prepare for another hurricane. This is just one week after Fay damaged parts of Bermuda this past weekend.

Hurricane Gonzalo

Hurricane Gonzalo

The storm system that will move through Hampton Roads tomorrow will steer Gonzalo to the east and keep it away from the East Coast of U.S. We will see some higher surf by the end of the week and into the weekend.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Tuesday Takes Vol. 3

October 14th, 2014 at 8:06 pm by under Interns, Uncategorized

The weeks continue to fly by and I continue to learn more. I’ve gotten another shot at being on set and I corrected some things but I’m glad I keep seeing the small things. That attention to detail is definitely something I’ve grown fond of. I make mistakes, which are so infuriating but when everyone’s so supportive it makes it easier to keep pushing forward and learning!

The camera is definitely becoming a friend of mine. I used to think it was super heavy but now it’s like carrying a suitcase, just a little more pricier ;) . That’s kind of how the whole internship goes; you’re overwhelmed and nervous at first, but after awhile and some reps, you start to feel a lot more confident in the things you’re doing week in and week out.

I do think being 100% comfortable in front of the camera is a ways away, but I think the progress being made is good. Nate and Brian always tell me reps are going to make you more comfortable when the cameras on you.

The newsroom is full of energy! Everyone works long hours yet they still find ways to bond and have fun with each other (even if you get hit in the head with some over-sized hackey sack).

Once again, it’s a new week, with new goals. Can’t wait to cross them off the list.

 

 


Warm and Sunny Today; Tracking The Tropics

October 14th, 2014 at 9:18 am by under Weather

High temperatures are going to be well above average today thanks to a strong flow of warm and humid air from the southeast. Temperatures will be in the 80s this afternoon. Most of us will be dry today, a isolated pop-up show may develop this afternoon. Rain is expected to arrive tomorrow morning and then again in the afternoon.

Future Trak Wednesday @8am

Future Trak Wednesday @ 8am

Future Trak @ 7pm

Future Trak @ 7pm

As the cold front comes through our area late tomorrow afternoon we may see a strong thunderstorms across Hampton Roads. The biggest risk will be for damaging wind gusts. I am expecting for many of our areas to receive around 1 inch of rain. The rain will clear out on Thursday.

Tropical Update

Watching Gonzalo

Watching Gonzalo

Gonzalo will pass to our east, it will likely hit Bermuda as a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane late on Friday. It will be far enough away from us so we should see sunshine and calm weather. The swell from Gonzalo will make for some great surf later this week and weekend.

Surf Update

Surf Update

Wave heights will be 3-4ft Thursday-Friday. Possibly up to 5ft on Saturday, then going back down on Sunday. We should see offshore winds all weekend.

Have a good Tuesday!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

 


Warming Up Today, Possible Afternoon Shower

October 13th, 2014 at 9:32 am by under Weather

Today we will see our temperatures warm up to be above average again. Highs are going to climb into the upper 70s this afternoon. (Average: 71 degrees)

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

A large trough is in place over the center of the country. This trough will bring severe weather to Tennessee and the Southern States today. As of the morning the center of the low was in Oklahoma.

Isolated PM Showers today.

Isolated PM Showers today.

Since our temperatures are going to warm to the 70s today, an isolated shower is possible from the extra heat and humidity we will have available. These showers will fade away tonight, and tomorrow we should be dry with partly cloudy skies. Rain is still expected to arrive on Wednesday.

Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Fay is in the central Atlantic fading away today. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is getting stronger, right now it has 60mph sustained winds.

Gonzalo Track

Gonzalo Track

Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow, and then become a Cat. 2 Hurricane with 110mph winds by Friday. Since we have a large trough and storm complex moving across the USA this week, that storm should help to force this storm on a more easterly track. Models are saying that this storm will stay out to sea, but impact Bermuda by Sunday. We  could see a swell from Gonzalo arrive next weekend.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 


Heating Up Across Hampton Roads & The Tropics

October 12th, 2014 at 9:09 pm by under Weather

Our warming trend begins tomorrow in Hampton Roads and the tropics are becoming more active too. First we will talk about our local weather. It was cloudy and cool today with highs only in the upper 60s for many of you. The clouds will stick around on Monday, but it will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The reason we are going to be warmer tomorrow is because a ridge of high pressure will build into Hampton Roads. The jet stream will slide to our north as our next storm system gains some energy across the Central Plains.

Monday Set-Up

Monday Set-Up

Our southeasterly winds will increase our moisture levels tomorrow. Since our moisture levels will be on the rise, we can’t rule out a few isolated showers Monday afternoon, but most areas should remain dry. Our latest Future Trak model only has a few showers developing by 3 PM.

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

The cold front will get closer to us on Wednesday, therefore Tuesday will be even warmer with highs in the lower 80s. Wednesday will be a day of change. We may see a few showers in the morning, but the main area of showers and storms won’t arrive until late in the day on Wednesday. Some of the storms may be on the strong side. Rain will continue into early Thursday morning.  The computer models are still in disagreement with the timing of the rain. The GFS model pushes all of the rain east of us early Thursday morning. The European model is slower and keeps the rain here until Thursday evening. We will probably see the models meet somewhere in the middle, so stay tuned for changes. Cooler and drier weather will move in behind the front. Highs will drop into the 70s Friday and Saturday and lows will be in the 50s. Next weekend is looking great so far!

Tropical Update:

The tropics are also heating up! We have 2 systems spinning in the Atlantic Ocean right now. Fay became a Category 1 Hurricane at 5 PM. Fay brought tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the island of Bermuda last night and early this morning. There have been reports of thousands without power, downed trees, some roof damage and flooding across the island. Fay is moving east northeast and is forecast to rapidly weaken Monday and Tuesday.

11 PM Update: Fay has now weakened to a tropical storm.

Hurricane Fay

Hurricane Fay

Hampton Roads will see higher surf Monday and Tuesday thanks to the swell from Fay. Expect wave heights to range between 3-4 feet for Virginia Beach and 4-5 feet for the Outer Banks Monday. Wave heights will come down on Tuesday, but should range between 2-3 feet for Virginia Beach and 3-4 feet for the Outer Banks. The water temperature is around 69-70 degrees at this time. Surf conditions won’t be ideal since winds will be strong out of the southeast both Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo developed just east of the Lesser Antilles around 1:30 this afternoon. Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday as it moves westward toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Many of the global computer models have Gonzalo interacting with the same cold front that will impact Hampton Roads this week. This front should steer Gonzalo to the east, which would keep the storm out to sea and away from the U.S. Stay tuned for more updates!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Cooling Down!

October 11th, 2014 at 9:18 pm by under Weather

It was a warm day for some and a cool day for others depending on when the cold front moved through your neighborhood. Check out the highs across the region.

Highs Today

Highs Today

Heavy rain moved across Virginia and North Carolina early this morning. Then we saw a break for much of the afternoon before another round of showers and storms developed along the cold front as it pushed into North Carolina. Most areas saw around 0.25″, while others saw much more than that.

24-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

Rain should taper off late tonight and lows will drop into the upper 50s. Sunday will be much cooler and breezy. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 60s and it will feel even cooler with a strong northeast breeze. A few showers are possible during the afternoon, but the rain will be very hit or miss.

Future Trak 3 PM Sunday

Future Trak 3 PM Sunday

Monday and Tuesday will be warmer with highs in the 70s on Monday and 80s on Tuesday.  A strong cold front will move into the region Wednesday night. Showers and storms will likely develop out ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and continue into early Thursday morning. Some of the storms could be on the strong side. Thursday and Friday will be cooler with highs in the 60s on Thursday and 70s on Friday.

Tropical Update:

Tropical Storm Fay continues to move northward tonight. Fay will bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to Bermuda tonight as it passes just east of the island.

Tropical Storm Fay

Tropical Storm Fay

Fay will stay out to sea, but will bring us higher surf Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. We are watching another area of showers and storms just east of the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center is giving this area of disturbed weather a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours and a 60% chance over the next 5 days. The next name is Gonzalo.

Area to Watch

Area to Watch

Computer models track this disturbance westward toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic over the next few days. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona