It was a frosty morning for some as temperatures dropped to around the freezing mark overnight. But temperatures have risen since the clouds have been moving in ahead of our next storm system. The higher level clouds made for a spectacular sunrise this morning out of Tower Cam 10.
Sunrise on Tower Cam 10
Jessica sent in her Chesapeake sunrise to email@example.com
The clouds will get thicker and lower throughout the day keeping high temperatures down into the mid 40s. We are tracking an area of low pressure moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This storm system is bringing a lot of rain to the Southeast this morning.
This low will move across Georgia and South Carolina today, and then track across North Carolina tonight. So our rain chances will be going up later today. Showers will be possible anytime after 3 PM and it looks like the rain could impact the evening commute.
Future Trak at 6 PM
Rain becomes widespread tonight and could be heavy at times.
Future Trak at 12 AM
The good news is that the heaviest rain will fall overnight and not during the day tomorrow, so Saturday will not be a total wash-out. Rain will become more scattered on Saturday. Showers will be possible in the early morning and then around midday again before pushing out before 3 PM. Computer models have also been trending warmer overall, so this is just going to be a rain event. Plus it looks like the moisture will move out before the cold air really settles into the region, so that is why the chances for winter weather have gone down. Sorry snow lovers!
Rain totals should be around 1 inch on average. Areas that see heavy rain could see totals range between 1-2 inches.
Winds will also be increasing as the low gets closer to us tonight. Winds will be out of the east and southeast tonight and then shift more out of the northwest tomorrow as the low passes us and moves northeast. We were also watching the potential for tidal flooding on Saturday. Since winds will only be out of the northeast for a very short period of time, tidal flooding will not be a problem. We may see a little bit of nuisance tidal flooding around high tide tomorrow (12 PM), but nothing more than that.
Sunday is looking like the better weekend day with lots of sunshine and highs around 50°. Have a great weekend everyone!
A couple of pictures here. The first shows a time-line of what we can expect for Friday and through the overnight hours into Saturday morning.
Temperatures on Friday will likely top out at around 42 to 45. Rain begins toward the dinner hour on Fri. evening with moderately heavy rain from Friday evening off & on through around 4:00 AM Saturday. We’ll also see stronger southerly winds on Friday night which could actually warm things up to around 50 overnight. On Saturday, we’ll see a few scattered lighter showers mainly during the morning. It’ll be cool again with highs in the low 40s.
The second graphic shows the amount of rain that we’re likely to get between Friday evening and Saturday. Again, most of that rain should fall between Friday evening and Saturday noon.
Saying “this isn’t ISIS, nobody’s dying,” Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said he did not in any way alter the footballs that were used in last weekend’s AFC Championship Game against the Indianapolis Colts.
Earlier Thursday, Patriots Coach Bill Belichick didn’t pull any punches, saying he has no knowledge of anyone manipulating the air pressure in the team’s football.
“I think we all know that quarterbacks, kickers, specialists have certain preferences on the footballs,” Belichick said. “They know a lot more than I do. They’re a lot more sensitive to it than I am. I hear them comment on it from time to time, but I can tell you, and they will tell you, that there’s never any sympathy whatsoever from me on that subject. Zero. Tom’s personal preferences on his footballs are something that he can talk about in much better detail and information than I could possibly provide.”
Meanwhile, Brady said, “I was as surprised as anybody when I heard Monday morning what was happening.” Brady went on to say he routinely selects the balls he uses prior to every game, and he doesn’t want anyone touching the balls after that. He said the balls he checked prior to the Colts game were perfect.
Immediately following Brady’s press conference, former Redskins quarterback Mark Brunell, who now works for ESPN, said he believes Brady is lying.
“I don’t believe what Tom Brady had to say,” Brunell said. “I don’t believe there is an equipment manager in the NFL that would deflate the balls without the quarterback’s approval.”
This morning we had the rare occurrence of freezing fog in the region. I don’t think it was too much of a problem, but the conditions were right in our inland locations. Freezing fog happens when the supercooled water droplets in the air rest on a surface that has a temperature at or below 32 degrees. The water droplets don’t freeze in the air because they need a surface to solidify and form. So some of the water droplets are actually below 32 degrees. This is commonly talked about in thunderstorms where hail formation occurs. Bridges and overpasses are more susceptible to freezing as they let the cold air pass above and below. Therefore if you have the conditions for freezing fog, then you need to be careful on those especially.
Besides the fog we are looking at a pretty good day. Skies will be partly cloudy. We’ll see light northwest winds. Tomorrow looks pretty quiet, but it will be a little cooler. Highs will be in the low/mid 40s. Winds will be out of the north. Through the day clouds will build from the south. A large area of low pressure will form to our south through the day. It will approach by tomorrow night. In fact…the models have moved the timeline for the rain forward since yesterday. So now widespread rain looks to move in by Friday evening.
Future Trak (8pm Fri)
Rain will continue into Saturday morning. The low will move to the North Carolina coast by that time. As the low moves away from us during the day we’ll still see scattered rain showers. Colder air will settle in behind the low, but it doesn’t look cold enough to change the precipitation over to snow. This is a change from yesterday. So this will mostly be a cold rain. Some sleet will probably mix-in by the evening, but most of the precip will be wrapping up by that time.
Future Trak (Sat. 5pm)
The low will be long-gone by Saturday night. We’ll dry out through Sunday. Highs will be in the 40s. On Monday an upper level trough will be riding overhead. This will spawn a weak surface low that will ride from west to east. This system still does not look like it will be able to pick up much moisture. Also surface temperatures will be above freezing during the afternoon. So for now it looks like it will be some scattered rain showers with a wintry mix in spots. It may turn into some scattered snow showers in the evening, but the models aren’t showing much precipitation during that time. Snow lovers keep getting their hopes up lately, but they have had a lot of disappointments this year. Sorry. Maybe we’ll see some on Monday. Hey…remember…you did have a banner year last year.
We have a lot of clouds in the region today, but we aren’t looking at a high chance for rain. A weak disturbance is moving through the region. so some spotty showers are possible today.
Rain Chances Map
Also there is a stationary front to our south along with a weak area of low pressure. We will be on the cooler side of the front. So highs will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s. There was a little clearing this morning. It we get a little more sunshine, then we may see mid 50s. Winds will be out of the northeast.
By tonight we’ll dry things out. High pressure will settle in through tomorrow. So we are looking cool and dry for Thursday and Friday. Then on Saturday…things get interesting. A large area of low pressure will form near coastal Georgia Friday night. By Saturday this system will move northeast along the coast. It will move towards Hatteras through the day. On it’s current forecast track the low is likely to bring lots of chilly rain to the region. Rain may even be heavy at times. However, by later Saturday some colder air may try to sink southward on the back side of the low. This may let a wintry mix of sleet and snow fall north of the metro. Here is what Future Trak shows on Saturday afternoon:
Future Trak (Saturday 1pm)
Keep in mind that any snow that falls will likely fall on a wet ground. So it’s tough to say how much of it would stick. It’s still early. This will likely get refined in the next 2 days, but it shows the general idea of what will be happening. Stay tuned for updates.
That system will push out by Sunday morning. We’ll be dry and cool on Sunday. Then another system will develop on Monday. This time the low looks to form over the Appalachians and move east to the coast. This time there will be a colder airmass in place. So we could see a scattered wintry mix turn into scattered snow showers during the afternoon. For now I am emphasizing the term scattered as the system will be moving from west to east. So it won’t be able to scoop up the deep moisture like the Saturday system will. Keep in mind that it’s still early for the Monday system. The models are in disagreement about the finer details, but they do show a similar pattern for now. The Canadian model is the driest with the GFS model the wettest so far. The European model shows some snow, but it also has the surface temperatures above freezing over much of the region while the precip falls. Stay tuned for updates. I’ll be blogging about this all week.
We have some nice/quiet weather…for now. Today is looking good with fair skies and highs in the 50s. High pressure is in control, but there will be a little more cloud cover than yesterday.
Tomorrow another weak system will bring a few showers to the region, but it doesn’t look like much. What’s been happening lately is that we have had a large upper level trough (dip in the jetstream) over the eastern United States. Small disturbances have rounded this trough and moved through the region occasionally. Then every few days the upper level trough spawns an offshore low at the surface. We had one day lately (the wintry mix) where the low met with SOME cold air that was in place. However, most times the warm air has come up with the moisture. Last Sunday comes to mind. So there hasn’t really been any snow. Just some flurries and a little light snow. A couple of days ago the computer models hinted at some possible snow next Saturday, but now the models show all rain in the region. The low looks to move more to the north and will now pass just offshore of Hatteras. It may bring some snow to northern Virginia if the moisture can make it up there. then we’ll be dry on Sunday. The forecast could change a bit before then. So stay tuned.
On Monday there will be another area of low pressure that will form offshore. It will be caused partially by that upper level trough that I mentioned. This time it will be stronger. The GFS model (AS I WRITE THIS) brings in some scattered snow showers in the region, but it doesn’t show a lot of moisture. The European model shows more moisture, but it also has warmer temperatures. So probably more of a rain/sleet mix with some snow showers north and west of the region. Either way the low will move away from us by late Monday night. Perhaps we could see some light snow or flurries on the backside as the cold air swoops in. We’ll see.
Things are interesting across the country this mid January. Not so much in terms of huge monster storms, but more in the way of how mild and quiet it is. Sure there were problems with icy roads in the northeast the other day, but there is a big lack of snow over the country. Here is the current snow cover over the United States from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOAA):
They put a number with the graphic. It comes out to only 26% of the country which is covered by snow. Snow on the ground allows the cold air to sit for a longer period of time. In a way snow begets snow. So while there have been some cold days occasionally, overall there has been a recent warming across a lot of the eastern U.S. Here are the forecast high temperatures for today for instance:
Forecast High Temps
Look at the 70s over parts of the Deep South and the Southeast (orange area). We aren’t done with Winter just yet. Sometimes February is our coldest month of the year. However, with the latest trends I am predicting an early Spring this year. Much of the rest of the world has had record heat this year. It is a matter of time before that heat catches up with the eastern U.S. I’ll admit that’s oversimplified, but it’s what my gut is telling me.
I almost wasn’t going to write a blog this morning. Meteorologist Tiffany Savona wrote a good one last night about yesterday’s rain and a little about the upcoming forecast. So I’m just adding a couple of small details. For instance… We picked up 0.94″ of rain at Norfolk International Airport yesterday. This gives us 2.6″ of rain for the month/year. This is 0.6″ above the rainfall average. It has been very wet lately. In fact, despite the cold weather my grass seems like it is actually trying to grow already ???
Anyway, we started this morning with a weak disturbance over the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. There were a few sprinkles there and probably a few sleet pellets.
Sat/Rad This Morning
My weather watcher, Doris, mentioned that her husband saw some icy patches as he went out. Her temperature in Machipongo was 32 degrees, but then rose to 34. Other than that the area saw partly cloudy skies and dry weather. High pressure will build in today. So we’ll have mostly sunny skies for much of the day.
Highs will be in the low 50s. We’ll see some pretty nice weather today and tomorrow. On Wednesday we’ll see a weak system bring some spotty showers to the area. The timing has been changing for that. Before it looked like it would be late Wednesday. Now it looks to come in early. I put the rain chance at 20-30%. So it won’t be anything like yesterday. We’ll be dry and cooler for Thursday. Friday into Saturday there still will be a system to our south. A couple of days ago it looked like this system would bring us some mixed/wintry weather to parts of North Carolina (at least). The latest models keep most of the precipitation to our south if not all of it. The latest GFS model (as I write this) has Hatteras, NC on the edge of some heavy rain now. It came in with a slightly warmer scenario. We have to keep an eye on this as there will probably be some pretty cold air in place in Hampton Roads. For now all the models keep Hampton Roads dry. As per usual….stay tuned for updates.
We had thunder in the region yesterday. The rule of thumb this time of year is that if you hear thunder, then you’ll (usually) see snow within the next 10 days. Though that isn’t always the case. I’d say it’s the case about 7 times out of 10.
The rain has ended and the sun will be out in full force tomorrow! Heavy rain fell across Hampton Roads earlier today and some thunderstorms even managed to develop in some areas. There were reports of some localized street flooding, but the rain drained rather quickly. Rain totals were impressive. Most locations saw at least 1 inch of rain as expected.
Today’s Rain Totals
Today’s Rain Totals
Once the heavy rain moved offshore, the sun came for a few hours before the clouds moved back in from the west. Check out this great shot from Tower Cam 10 this afternoon!
Tower Cam 10
Drier air will filter in overnight and the clouds should clear out by tomorrow morning as low drop into the mid to upper 30s. A much nicer day is on tap for MLK Day tomorrow. We will see lots of sunshine with highs in the lower 50s. Great weather for any local events, parades or marches. The weather will stay dry until Wednesday. A few light rain showers may develop Wednesday as a cold front moves across the region. Colder air will move in by the end of the week and highs will drop to around 40° Thursday and Friday.
The forecast gets complicated by Friday. We are watching an area of low pressure that will develop to our south late Thursday into Friday. Right now, most of the computer models keep the rain south of us.
Future Trak on Friday
But a couple of previous model runs brought the precipitation into Hampton Roads and it should be cold enough to at least get a rain/snow mix. We have Friday dry for now, but that could change. Stay tuned!
Well the temperatures this morning were great. We had a little sunshine near the coast while rain moved in from the west.
Rain Moving In
Rain will pick up through the morning and will last through about the mid-afternoon. The rain is enhanced today for a couple of reasons. First, there is an upper level disturbance moving in from the west. Secondly, there is a stationary front running right through Hampton Roads. It was already in the 50s east of the front with some low 40s towards Williamsburg.
Winds have been breezy out of the south. Some of the gusts have been over 25mph near the coast. This has let a lot of moisture move into the region. We’ll keep warming up for a bit. I put many highs up to near 60 today with cooler temps north and west of the metro. Temps will drop a by by the mid afternoon. Rain will be heavy at times today. In fact we could see some localized flooding this afternoon. By this evening we’ll be drying out. We’ll drop to the mid 30s tonight with some low 30s inland. Tomorrow there will be a lot of sunshine for Martin Luther King day. It will be cooler, but not too bad. Highs will be near 50. We’ll be dry for Tuesday as well, but a few showers will try to move in on Wednesday. If those showers linger into the evening, then that could wrap up as a few flurries. Stay tuned.
There is still a system that could impact us next Friday. The models are in a lot of disagreement about it at this time. An area of low pressure is expected to form well to our south. Some models have us on the edge of the precipitation. Some have it all staying south. Cold air will be in place. So this one bears watching. We’ll refine the forecast over the next couple of days. Still plenty of time for the models to come together.
It was a sunny start to the weekend, but that will change tomorrow. Rain will push into Hampton Roads after midnight tonight as an area of low pressure develops across the Carolinas. This area of low pressure will move northward and bring a steady rain to the region tomorrow morning through the early afternoon. Rain could be heavy at times as the moisture values increase. Here is what the latest Future Trak has at 8 AM. Don’t forget the umbrella if you plan on going to a morning church service!
Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday
Notice that most of the rain is located across our western zones. At this time, temperatures will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s, so it won’t be too chilly in the morning. The rain shifts eastward as a wind shift line moves from west to east. Winds should range from 10-20mph, but there could be higher gusts once the wind shift line moves through your neighborhood. The yellow and orange colors indicate heavy rain, so that will be a threat also. Heaviest rain should fall between 10AM-12 PM. Watch out for localized street flooding.
Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday
Then we will see a break in the rain and some of the clouds will thin out, so we may see some sunshine tomorrow afternoon. The actual cold front/arrival of the dry air won’t move in until later in the afternoon. So we may see a few hit or miss light showers between 3-6 PM as the front clears the area.
Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday
Rain totals should range from 0.5-1 inch. Some inland spots could see higher totals because the rain will move into our westernmost counties first.
Rain Totals Forecast
Highs will be in the mid 50s tomorrow. Drier air will move in Sunday night and highs on Monday will drop into the upper 40s, which is seasonable this time of year.