2 Coasts…2 Storms

December 11th, 2014 at 8:04 am by under Weather

It’s been pretty rough on the west coast.  Sure they’ve needed rain, but now they have flooding and hurricane force winds over the region.  A large storm system is moving into northern California and Oregon this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Seems like a case of careful of what you ask for.  Schools are closed. There are flood warnings.  Some winds will gust to 90mph in the higher elevations.  Here’s an article with more info: West Coast Storm.

Meanwhile a nor’easter is bringing heavy snow to parts of the northeast.

Nor'easter In The Northeast

Nor’easter In The Northeast

That system is bringing more heavy snow to Buffalo, NY.  However, they aren’t expecting the several feet of snow that they saw a couple of weeks ago.  Around here we have a nice area of high pressure which is delivering  sunshine.  However, we started very cold this morning. Lows were in the 20s and 30s.  Even with a lot of sunshine it will be tough to warm up.  The December sun is not that high in the sky.  So unless you really pull up the warm air from the south, then warming is hard to do.  Over the next couple of days the low is going to weaken and move out.  High pressure will build in.  This will let the temperatures slowly build too.  High temps will be near 50 tomorrow and Saturday.  We’ll be in the mid-upper 50s on Sunday.  We may be able to sneak in a few 60s by either Sunday or Monday.  At least into part of the region.  The weather looks dry through next Tuesday.  Maybe even longer.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Improving Conditions…Finally!

December 10th, 2014 at 8:14 am by under Weather

After about 2-3 days of not seeing the sun, I can happily report a change in the weather.  Today we’ll still have chilly/breezy conditions, but skies are already clearing in the region.  The reason for the change is that the area of low pressure that was in the region has moved farther north.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High pressure is nudging in from the southwest.  There is a large upper level trough over the east and west coasts with a ridge in the central U.S.  Our east coast trough had helped to create the nor’easter system over the last couple of days and move it north/northwest.

With the high building-in we’ll see a lot more sunshine over the next few days.  However, since the low is still very intact to the north, the breeze will stay strong for another 12 or so hours.  Winds will run out of the northwest at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.  The higher gusts will be near the shore.  High temps will be in the upper 40s to near 50.  Overnight we will be colder.  Skies will clear for the most part.  Plus winds will weaken.  So low temperatures will be in the low/mid 30s.  There may even be a few upper 20s inland if the wind really cuts.  This cold start won’t help tomorrow.  We’ll have fair skies, but highs will only be in the upper 40s to near 50 again.  Winds will be westerly.  The cold air will keep getting pushed south by the low-high setup.  By the weekend, high pressure will build into the region and shut down this weather pattern.  We’ll see highs in the 50s.

Aside from local weather there’s been a lot happening out west.  They are going to get more rain over parts of California over the next couple of days.  It will be rough for some cities. California flooding.

This rain is great in the long-term as they have been suffering through one of the worst droughts in the last 1,200 years.  Wow!  That comes from a recent blog which cites recent research from the American Geophysical Union. Here’s the article: California Historic Drought.  It will be interesting to see how long the recent weather pattern will continue.

Finally, I found this neat article which talks about how hard or easy it is to predict the weather in specific cities around the country.  As expected, things are pretty tough here, but it’s not the hardest place to predict.  Here’s the article.  It’s very cool: Most Unpredictable Weather In The U.S.  

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tuesday Takes: Final Edition

December 9th, 2014 at 6:45 pm by under Interns

No it’s not my final blog post, but it’s the final Tuesday Take :/. This week everyone’s seen me a lot more. Welp, at least you know school’s done (until January…). I was way too nervous the first couple of weeks here, but then it was like I flipped the switch on and I felt like I was at home. The reality is that I am at home. The past five months have been nothing short of realizing that 1.) I love these hours, it doesn’t fee like work and 2.) I know I want to report; I love telling stories and presenting it to viewers.

 

A big shout out to the sports department for letting me shoot the Morgan State vs. Hampton game yesterday. I got my first real look at how it feels to be on the clock. Using judgement is key if I have any tidbit of advice. You stay until late in the second half if you want to, you may just miss that 10:44 deadline.

Not going to give my thank you’s yet because I’ve got 3 1/2 more days left and I’m always adding people and reasons to say thank you! See you on Saturday, hope you enjoy the post, and the pictures :)

 

"The Intern" feat. Nicole Livas

“The Intern” feat. Nicole Livas

"He Knows How To Get The Job Done" feat. Nathan Epstein

“He Knows How To Get The Job Done” feat. Nathan Epstein

 


More Rain/Wind/Tidal Flooding Today

December 9th, 2014 at 9:17 am by under Weather

Another round of rain, wind and tidal flooding looks likely during the day today all thanks to a coastal storm spinning offshore. This storm was still developing yesterday and now it is an area of low pressure off the Virginia and North Carolina coast. This low will move north of us today and strengthen into a Nor’easter, bringing heavy rain to coastal areas of New England and heavy snow to inland locations.

Coastal Storm

Coastal Storm Moving North

We started off with scattered showers/drizzle/mist this morning. The computer models are leaning toward a wetter solution for the afternoon. Yesterday, the models had us drying out by the afternoon. Now it looks like the rain/drizzle/mist will continue for the rest of the day thanks to an upper level disturbance moving in behind the low. The rain won’t add up to much, maybe one tenth of an inch, but it will feel like a lot if it continues all day long. Here is what our Future Trak model has at 2 PM.

Future Trak at 2 PM

Future Trak at 2 PM

Scattered showers will continue through the afternoon and more rain is possible this evening.

Future Trak at 9 PM

Future Trak at 9 PM

Rain should taper off late tonight/early Wednesday. Winds will stay up today, but will not be as strong as yesterday. Expect northwesterly winds to range between 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph along the coast. With the wind staying up, we could see minor to moderate tidal flooding during the next high tide between 9-11 AM. If you saw any tidal flooding yesterday morning, there is a good chance you will see similar conditions this morning. The water could even rise a little bit higher than yesterday morning. Move your car to higher ground if you live in a flood-prone area. Here are the forecasts for different tidal gauges across the region. Minor tidal flooding will be possible for Sewells Point this morning.

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Nuisance to minor tidal flooding will be possible for Yorktown and areas affected by the York River.

Yorktown Tide Forecast

Yorktown Tide Forecast

Minor to moderate flooding will be possible for Kiptopeke along the Eastern Shore and Duck Pier along the Outer Banks.

Kiptopeke Forecast Tides

Kiptopeke Tide Forecast

Duck Pier, NC Forecast Tides

Duck Pier, NC Tide Forecast

Ocean overwash will be possible along Highway 12 again this morning. Water levels will not be as high tonight during high tide, since the low will be north of us and winds will be blowing out of the northwest. But with northwest winds, we could see some sound-side flooding along the Outer Banks.

It will stay chilly today with highs in the low to mid 40s, but when you factor in the wind, it will feel even colder! We will see a lot of clouds on Wednesday, but it will be a drier day overall. Slight chance for an isolated shower north with highs in the upper 40s. Then we dry out for the rest of the week and the weekend is looking great!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


More Winds & Tidal Flooding

December 8th, 2014 at 8:38 am by under Weather

We had some strong winds yesterday.  There were a few gusts above 40mph near the shore which probably blew over a few holiday decorations.  The winds won’t be as bad as yesterday, but they will still be up today.  An area of low pressure is looming offshore.

Offshore Low

Offshore Low

Instead of moving to the east, the upper level winds are pulling it back to the west.  We call this retrograding.  Since the high to our northwest isn’t going anywhere, it is increasing the pressure gradient (difference in value over a given distance).  So this effect is going to increase the winds today. We’ll see northeast winds running at 10-20mph.  There will be some gusts between 30 and 35mph near the shore.  Gusts will run more towards 25mph inland.  There actually won’t be much rain through the day.  Except for some scattered showers over northeast North Carolina, most of the rain won’t move into the region until this evening.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

By this evening rain showers will move in.  The rain chances will increase from 30% chance at 5pm up to a 70% chance by 11pm.  Parts of the area could see an inch of rain.  Most of the region should see less.  Tomorrow the low will push up into Delaware and Pennsylvania. Higher amounts of rain are expected from D.C. to Philadelphia.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Most of the rain will move north with the system through the day with just a few isolated showers in the afternoon.

Future Trak (Noon Tomorrow)

Future Trak (Noon Tomorrow)

While the low will be to our north, the models do show one last batch of showers rounding the low and moving in through the evening.  Stay tuned for updates.  Things will settle down on Wednesday.  Then it should be pretty quiet into the weekend.

There is some minor tidal flooding today.  The tidal surge isn’t too bad.  So we are only expecting minor tidal flooding.  Keep in mind the waves are up.  So there will be some overwash along the Outer Banks.  The tide levels are updated from last night.  Before it even looked like we might see some moderate tidal flooding in a few locations.  This is especially the case for Kiptopeke.  Now the flooding looks minor.

Kiptopeke Tide Forecast

Kiptopeke Tide Forecast

The tide at Sewell’s Point will also be up.  Here’s the tide forecast for the lower Chesapeake Bay.

Tide Forecast Sewell's Point

Tide Forecast Sewell’s Point

If you want the latest tide forecast for these and other cities, then follow the link to the National Weather Service page: NWS tides.

I haven’t talked too much about temperatures yet.  We’ll see high temperatures in the upper 40s for the next 3 days. However, it will feel like it’s in the 30s with the wind chills today and tomorrow.  We’ll steadily warm up into the weekend into the 50s.  No heat waves in sight.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Winds Stay Up, Tidal Flooding Likely

December 7th, 2014 at 9:08 pm by under Weather

Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler wrote a great blog this morning talking about a developing coastal storm and its impacts on Hampton Roads and North Carolina. I’m just going to give an update on the winds and the tides. Northeast winds will stay up and should range between 15-25mph overnight and into tomorrow. Sustained winds could be a little higher near the shore and gusts could reach 35-40mph. Winds will not be as strong for inland locations.

Wind Forecast

Wind Forecast – 7 AM Monday

With the persistent northeasterly winds and a full moon last night, the tides will be running higher than normal over the next few days. I made this map to show where the tidal gauges are located across the region. Forecasts are produced for these gauges. So if we give a forecast for Sewells Point, then all areas in red will be affected. The forecast for Yorktown will impact all areas in yellow and the forecast for Kiptopeke includes all areas in green facing the Chesapeake Bay along the Eastern Shore. Duck Pier is not shown on this map, but that forecast will impact people along the Outer Banks.

Tidal Gauge Locations

Tidal Gauge Locations

Here is the forecast for Sewells Point.

Sewells Point Water Levels

Sewells Point Water Levels

Here is the forecast for Yorktown.

Yorktown Water Levels

Yorktown Water Levels

Here is the forecast for Kiptopeke.

Kiptopeke Water Levels

Kiptopeke Water Levels

Here is the forecast for Duck Pier. Keep in mind that there will likely be ocean overwash along Highway 12 during times of high tide.

Duck Pier Water Levels

Duck Pier Water Levels

The highest tide will occur Monday morning, so make sure you are prepared if you live in a flood-prone area. Move your car to higher ground! Winds will shift more out of the northwest on Tuesday, so the threat for tidal flooding will continue for Sewells Point and Kiptopeke. There will probably be sound-side flooding along the Outer Banks on Tuesday. We do not have a forecast for the sound-side of the Outer Banks because there is no tidal gauge there. There is only a gauge in Duck, which is on the ocean side.

Most of Monday will be cloudy and windy, but rain chances go up late in the day as the area of low pressure gets closer to us. Showers will be possible anytime after 3 PM. Best chances will be across coastal areas at first and then everyone should see rain move in Monday night.

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Rain will become more widespread Monday night.

Future Trak at 9 PM Monday

Future Trak at 9 PM Monday

Rain should taper off from south to north Tuesday morning.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Winds And Developing Nor’easter

December 7th, 2014 at 9:16 am by under Weather

It’s interesting today because the winds have picked up as a weather system has actually pushed away from us.  Last night a cold front moved into the region.  It brought us rain showers and slowly dropped the temperatures.  This morning the front is already offshore and moving out to sea.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There was also an area of low pressure along the front. Normally, we would write this off, but it will actually do a button-hook and move back towards our region.  More on that in a moment.  Today high pressure is building in from the west.  The squeeze play between this and the offshore low is increasing our winds.  We’ve already seen gusts to 40mph near the shore.  Wind advisories are posted for cities and counties along the coast for the entire day.  Winds will run north-northeast at 15-25mph with gusts up to 45 for a large portion of the viewing area.  The good news is that we’ll start clearing out as high pressure sinks in.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Due to the wind, high temps will only rise to the upper 40s.  Tonight the winds will settle a little, but we’ll still see some gusts to 30mph near the shore.  Then tomorrow the area of low pressure that is offshore will drop southward.  Then it will start heading back towards the U.S. coast.  Now some computer models have this low becoming a nor’easter.  A couple other models have it dying out and then a new low develops near the coast which becomes the storm.  Either way it is expected to form tomorrow afternoon off the coast and will start heading northwest.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The winds will steadily increase again through the day tomorrow.  The low will move to just east of the the Eastern Shore by tomorrow evening and will finally move into eastern New York by Tuesday afternoon.  We are expecting rain from this, but it’s possible that the heaviest rain will stay to our north.  That part of the forecast has been changing, and will need to be updated though.  It depends on the exact track.  The reason the system is retrograding (moving west instead of east) is due to a large trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  This trough is moving in from the west and will actually develop the low and pull it northwest.  The whole system will throw some more cold air down our way.  High temps will only be in the upper 40s for several days.  At least we’ll dry out by the end of the week.

All of these persistent winds are expected to produce some minor-moderate tidal flooding.  We are very close to a full moon. So the tide is up a bit anyway.  Tides will run about 1.5-2 feet above normal.  In a few places it may be even more than that.  So be prepared if you live in a tidal-prone area.  We’ve already seen some tidal flooding this morning.  We’ll see the tidal flooding for the next 48 hours.  Here is the high tide forecast for Sewell’s Point:

Sewell's Point Tide Forecast

Sewell’s Point Tide Forecast

The tide will be high for many.  Here are the tide forecasts for Duck, NC and Wachapreague:

Tide Forecast (Duck NC)

Tide Forecast (Duck NC)

 

Tide Forecast For Wachapreague

Tide Forecast For Wachapreague

Tide forecasts are notorious for changing around here.  So check the National Weather Service site for updates: NWS Tide Forecasts.  There are also more sites to choose for the forecast.

The tide this morning wasn’t too bad, but the tide really didn’t get a chance to build yet.  So I am more concerned about tomorrow morning and possibly the evening (which is likely to increase).  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Rainy Saturday, Cold & Windy Sunday

December 6th, 2014 at 9:39 am by under Weather

We will see a little bit of everything this weekend when it comes to the weather. Today will be rainy and warm and Sunday will be drier, colder and windy! Let’s talk about today’s forecast first. A cold front is located to our west and showers are developing out ahead of it. A few showers are possible this morning with better chances for rain during the afternoon and evening hours. The overall trend of the computer models show the rain moving in earlier, around 12 PM this afternoon. Our Future Trak computer model has rain becoming more widespread by 1 PM.

Future Trak at 1 PM

Future Trak at 1 PM

Rain will continue the rest of the day, but there may be some breaks in rain here and there. You won’t need the heavy jacket today since high temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 60s. Rain is likely this evening too. Future Trak shows the front moving into Hampton Roads after 7 PM.

Future Trak at 7 PM

Future Trak at 7 PM

Once the front moves through, the rain should become a little bit more scattered. Showers will taper off early Sunday morning. Rainfall totals should range between 0.5″-1″ on average. Winds will turn more northerly and really increase in speed after midnight. Secure any loose holiday decorations outside or bring them inside before heading to bed tonight. Here is the wind speed forecast at 3 AM Sunday morning.

Wind Forecast - 3 AM Sunday

Wind Forecast – 3 AM Sunday

Sustained winds will be running between 20-30mph gusting up to 35-40mph at times. The wind will stay up and range between 15-25mph all day tomorrow too. And it will be much colder on Sunday. Highs will only be in the upper 40s and the wind will make it feel even colder than that!

Meanwhile, the Philippines are bracing for a monster typhoon that will make landfall across the islands today. This storm is going to impact the same areas that were hit by Haiyan last November. Typhoon Hagupit has sustained winds of 125 mph as of right now, so the storm has weakened since Thursday when maximum sustained winds were up to 180mph.

Typhoon Hagupit

Typhoon Hagupit

Damaging winds and storm surge will pose a big threat to all coastal communities. Rainfall totals could range form 10-15 inches on average, with some higher totals possible. This will lead to flooding and mudslides.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Wet Weather Soon, And Record Snow Cover?

December 5th, 2014 at 9:15 am by under Weather

While the headline does have the 4 letter s word in the title, there is no snow in our forecast…Yet.  I’ll have more on the snow talk in a moment.  Locally, we had some rain and sprinkles between last night and early this morning.  It dwindled down to some spotty sprinkles with lots of clouds.

Satetllite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is a weak area of high pressure to our northeast.  Also there is plenty of moisture streaming in (in the upper levels) from the west.  So today we’ll see quite a bit of clouds.  I won’t rule out a few sprinkles seeing as there are numerous scattered showers to our west.  But there shouldn’t be much.  The wind will be less than yesterday. So that will allow us to warm up a bit.  The whole region will see highs in the 50s.  We’ll probably get some mid-upper 50s going this afternoon based on the latest trends.

Tomorrow, a cold front will come in from the west along with a developing area of low pressure.   We’ll be just ahead of the system during the day.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Moisture will pool in from the southwest.  The surface winds will be out of the south-southwest at 8-12mph.  This will let the temperatures rise to the low 60s despite ample clouds.  The rain chances will be small in the morning (30%), but will increase to 60% by the afternoon and to 90% by the evening.  Here is what Future Track shows for 3pm tomorrow and 8pm tomorrow.

Future Trak (3pm) Saturday

Future Trak (3pm) Saturday

Future Trak (8pm Saturday)

Future Trak (8pm Saturday)

Rain will taper off but continue into early Sunday morning.  The rain should push out, but clouds are expected to linger through the day.  We are expecting about 1″ of rain with some cities seeing 1.5-2″.  On Sunday temps will get knocked back a bit.  Highs will only be near 50.  Winds will be out of the northeast again.

We’ll have a cool few days next week.  No big weather systems will move into the region, but we’ll see a decent amount of clouds.  A weak offshore low may bring us a few showers late Monday into Monday night, but that should head out by Tuesday.

In global news…  This Fall has had record snow on the ground in the northern hemisphere.  It’s been very confusing lately as the recent headlines have talked about how 2014 could be the warmest year on record.  That is especially confusing since I think the eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. has has one of the coolest years in a while.  Here is an article with more information on the subject: Record Snow Cover.

To me it seems like the pattern is changing.  All of the wet weather in west is a sign that the pattern may be ready to change in the longer term.  True it is the wet season out there, but the models are not forecasting as large of troughs as we have seen over the past couple of months.  Could we be in for some milder/drier weather over the next few weeks?  We’ll see.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cooler Again

December 4th, 2014 at 8:36 am by under Weather

Well…it’s a simple blog today.  We’re back in the cooler weather.  A cold front moved through the region yesterday.  Now it is well to our south.

Cold Front To The South

Cold Front To The South

We started the morning with temps in the 30s and 40s.  There were quite a bit of clouds.  Normally behind a cold front, high pressure builds-in and you clear out for a while.  However, high pressure is fairly weak right now, and moisture is streaming in from the west in the upper levels. This will give us partly to mostly cloudy skies today.  Surface winds will be out of the northeast at 10-15mph.  So high temperatures will only be in the upper 40s with a few 50s south.  We may see a few sprinkles tonight or early tomorrow, but no large area of rain is expected to move in.  Tomorrow we’ll see more clouds and highs will be in the low 50s.  Winds will still be from the northeast, but they should be weak.

We’ll warm up a little this weekend. Highs will be near 60 on Saturday.  Then we’ll be in the 50s again on Sunday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler