The National Hurricane Center is still keeping Tropical Storm Cristobal on a northerly track. The 5pm Update states that:
Storm Moving NNE at 5mph
Going to stay offshore of the USA for its entire track.
Credit: NASA GOES 13 Satellite
Dangerous rip currents will exist tomorrow with waves around 3-5ft across the VB Oceanfront. Wave Heights will be similar for the OBX. For surfers, onshore winds will continue tomorrow which will keep waves choppy. Look at the full forecast:
Remember, with a large swell like this: “If in Doubt, Don’t Go Out” if you are new(er) to surfing or boogieboarding have your session with a buddy or a group of people and if you can near a life guard. Have Fun!
Relax! I misspelled the name of the tropical system on purpose….Cristobal-Crystal Ball. Get it? There’s actually a big puzzle of weather across the country with rotating pieces across the board. It’s very interesting actually. Today we have a big area of high pressure in the region which is providing for nice weather and a persistent/cool northeast breeze. In the central U.S. the same system is pumping in the heat. So they are dealing with highs in the 90s and 100s there and out west. The winds will be northeast at 10-20mph with a few higher gusts near the shore. That breeze is creating some waves and a high threat for rip currents today. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s with some 80s inland. That is incredible for late August. So the high pressure area will sit over the region during the next few days. This will continue to produce nice weather and northeast breezes. It will also help to block Cristobal from moving northwest.
Areas Of High Pressure
Right now Cristobal is just north of the Bahamas with sustained winds of 60mph. Thunderstorms have fired up around the system, but they are stronger and more numerous to the south of the center.
It is slowly moving northward. Over the next 36 hours it is forecast to move more northeast in-between the two areas of high pressure. The wind shear is forecast to weaken. So the system is expected to become a minimal hurricane by Wednesday morning.
Eventually the upper level winds will dip down and help carry the storm faster to the east/northeast. The models are in pretty good agreement in keeping the storm far from the east coast. There are only a couple of outliers that take it closer to the coast.
There is a low confidence in the 2 models that do bring it closer to the U.S. The European model (not shown) also keeps it offshore. This model has had a lot of weight as it’s done well overall for the past couple of years. The GFS model also keeps it well offshore (red line above). I wouldn’t say that the forecast is not set in stone just yet, but the odds are good that it will follow the current forecast.
I don’t expect any impacts here in Hampton Roads from the storm other than a continuing high threat for rip currents. The northeast winds will likely continue as the storm moves away from our region. So we will see some nuisance type tidal flooding over the next few days as well. The wind and the rain will stay well away from our region. Bermuda may see some wind and higher waves, but the most likely path keeps the impacts minimal at this time. Stay tuned for updates. Remember the forecast has changed quite a bit over the last few days. It’s still possible that Cristobal will have a couple of surprises. One possibility is that the storm may stall out for a bit longer over its current waters. Again…stay tuned.
As the title suggests, there is a lot to talk about in the weather department. Our strong northeast winds will continue tonight and so will the risk of nuisance tidal flooding. Tides will be running higher than normal tonight and tomorrow thanks to the persistent northeast winds and the new moon tomorrow night. If you saw nuisance tidal flooding this morning, you will definitely see it again tonight as water levels should rise even more. Here is the forecast for Sewells Point, which is a benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads and parts of the Peninsula, including Hampton and Newport News.
Sewells Point Tide Forecast
Water levels will be rising in Yorktown and this could impact parts of York, Gloucester and Mathews Counties tonight. Here is the forecast.
Yorktown Tide Forecast
Wind speeds should range from 5-10mph inland and from 10-15mph along the coast overnight. It will be a cool and breezy night with lows in the mid/upper 60s along the coast and lower 60s inland. You may even need the light jacket or sweater early Monday morning.
Forecast Lows Tonight
A ridge of high pressure will build in tomorrow and keep us dry for most of the week. The strong northeast winds will keep us on the cool side once again tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to around 80°. Average high temperature this time of year is 84°. With the higher than normal tides, there will also be a high risk for rip currents at the beaches and higher surf tomorrow. Wave heights should be between 3-4 feet. Even though we will see perfect beach weather tomorrow, the water will be dangerous to swimmers. Swim near a lifeguard if possible and if caught in a rip current, make sure you swim parallel to the shore until you can swim out of it.
Tropical Storm Cristobal is spinning over the Bahamas tonight. Cristobal is expected to slow down as it encounters weak steering currents Monday and Tuesday. This storm is expected to strengthen to a category 1 hurricane by Wednesday as it moves over warmer water and into an area with less wind shear.
Tropical Storm Cristobal
The computer models are now in better agreement with the track staying out to sea. If you check yesterday’s blog, you can see the cone of uncertainty was touching North and South Carolina. Now, the cone has been shifted eastward as the models have trended more east with their solutions. I noticed this trend last night.
A trough will move off the East Coast on Wednesday and help keep this storm out to sea. The only impacts that we will see here in Hampton Roads from Cristobal will be higher surf and a high threat for rip currents all week along. Right now it looks like the highest waves will be on Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned!
At 6:20 this morning the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression Four to Tropical Storm Cristobal. This storm has 45mph winds and is expected to get stronger over the coming week.
Cristobal in the Atlantic. Maria in the Pacific.
I took this snapshot of the two large storms on either side of North America. Look on the left, you can see Category 4 Hurricane Maria. The eye is also noticeable in the center of the storm. Cristobal isn’t a hurricane, but is expected to become one by Thursday.
The National Hurricane Center has the forecast cone just grazing by Cape Hatteras on the OBX. The important part of the storm will be that turn from north to northeast on Thursday. The sooner it happens, the less likely the storm will impact the OBX. I would expect the only weather the OBX will observe is bands of clouds with some rainfall on Thursday.
Our wind will be stronger today out of the northeast. We will see a breeze at 20mph with gusts over 30mph possible today through Tuesday. With that breeze our skies will remain rain free this week.
We will continue to track Cristobal this week, Tiffany Savona will have another update this evening.
The strong NE winds is going to push in a 3-4ft+ swell today. That could create head high peaks. Rip Currents will be along our beaches all day so beware of the dangers with the side and outgoing currents. Swim Near a lifeguard. The swell will keep up this first half of the week. The wind will die down on Wednesday which should mean cleaner waves. The tropical system will also push in new waves starting on Thursday. Stay tuned.
Tropical Depression Four developed across the southern Bahamas earlier today. The Hurricane Hunters finally found a closed circulation. Maximum sustained winds are at 35mph for now. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by tomorrow. Cristobal is the next name on the list. Forecasts have this storm becoming a category 1 hurricane by the middle of next week.
Tropical Depression Four
Notice that part of the cone of uncertainty includes the eastern parts of North and South Carolina. Most of the models keep this system offshore, passing somewhere between the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda. However, there are a few models that take the storm closer to the coast. So, the cone takes these models into account too.
Right now, there is not enough agreement among the computer models to have a high confidence forecast at this point. The 12Z European model run and the 18Z GFS model run have the storm tracking more east than its previous runs. This could be a trend and is something to watch. Here are the 2 scenarios. If this storm takes a track closer to the coast, then we will could see rain, gusty winds and rough surf Thursday and Friday. If this storm tracks more offshore, then we won’t see any rain or wind. We will still see higher surf by the middle of next week, which is great news for surfers.
Local Weather Update: A few more showers are possible tonight as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Northeast winds will stay up tomorrow too and should range from 10-20mph with gusts up to 25 mph at times. Expect a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s and lower humidity. Average high this time of year is 84°.
Forecast Wind Speeds on Sunday
These persistent northeast winds, along with the almost new moon, will create higher than normal tides. Nuisance tidal flooding will be possible during times of high tide Sunday and Monday. This graph shows the time of high tide along with the forecast water level at Sewells Point, which is a benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads.
Sewells Point Tides
Along with the higher tides, there will also be a high risk for rip currents at the local beaches tomorrow. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay tuned for more updates on Tropical Depression Four. I will have a complete update on WAVY News 10 at 11 and Jeff Edmondson will be here on WAVY News 10 at 6:00 Sunday morning.
The three objects will be spreading apart from our perspective over the next week, so if the sky is clear in the morning look for the objects. For today we will be seeing cloudy skies with a few scattered showers possible.
Light Rain Today
Wind speeds will be also strong from the northeast at 15-20mph by the afternoon. Gusts could be over 25mph. This wind is going to push in a new swell where we could see 3ft waves today and 4 ft waves tomorrow at the beach. That will mean a high threat for rip currents. Tomorrow, we will still see strong winds, but the skies will be clearer. Highs will be near 77 tomorrow.
As of now, the storm system near the Dominican Republic still has not formed into a depression or tropical storm. There is a high amount of shear in the environment which has been ripping apart the storm. Shear is a change in wind speed with height. The higher the shear, the less likely a hurricane can develop and survive.
The forecast models are still all over the place. The 6Z GFS has this storm making landfall near Miami, FL. The Euro still keeps it out to sea.
SAT AM Tracks. (GFS = Redline, Euro = Greenline)
Notice how all of the models have it closer to land? Look at the snapshot I took yesterday:
Forecast Tracks (From Friday’s Models)
There is a closer to USA trend happening, also the storm is slowing down. Keep an eye on it as it may be named Christobal either today or tomorrow.
It’s not everyday you meet a band that truly understands the passion and work ethic it takes to make it in this crazy business. It’s not everyday that you meet a band that has a true connection with their fans, that take the time to talk, hangout and listen to every single fan. Today was a day that I met that band – The Raskins.
Comprised of twin New York born and raised brothers, Logan and Roger Raskin were born in this business. Their father, Tony Raskin, was a Broadway actor starring in feature roles in South Pacific, Oklahoma, and Damn Yankees just to name a few and their mother, Judy Lee Raskin, an accomplished jazz singer. “Watching my dad perform and watching the audience react to him – that’s what grabbed me into the entertainment business” said Roger Raskin (guitar), who as a kid would sit at the high end of the piano playing while brother Logan (lead vocals) would sit at the low end playing. “We didn’t have any TVs in the house but we didn’t need that, music filled the house.” Influenced not just from their parents but also from the NYC rock scene with Blondie, The Ramones, and the New York Dolls, the brothers knew this is exactly what they wanted to do. And they have certainly done it well.
This past May, The Raskins released their debut album and it’s good – really good (click here for my review) but it’s not just the music itself that makes it good, it’s the passion in it that you hear past the chords that really makes this record special. “This records is ours, we recorded, we mixed it – it wasn’t easy but it’s our”. Roger and Logan played all the instruments, recorded it themselves and mixed the record themselves – and that’s not an easy task to tackle. “We wanted to do it our way”. The record is raw and organic – no autotune, no funky modulating effects – just pure rock ‘n’ roll. Plug and play. They took what they did in the studio and applied it to their live show.
Backed by an incredible team of musicians (Johnny Martin – bass, Jet Lopez – guitar, Troy Patrick Farrell – drums), The Raskins are in the midst of touring the country opening up for Motley Crue’s Farewell tour. They are gaining new fans by the thousands at every show they open and it’s not just from the live performance but the interaction and relationships they have with their fans. After their set, they go out and meet everyone at their merch booth and spend the rest of the show signing autographs taking pictures and, more importantly, taking to them. Roger: “We understand the importance the connection between the band and the audience is.” Logan: “We answer every email, every tweet and fans know that they can reach us and that is what it is about.”
That really is what it is about – connecting with the fans. The Raskins are truly great band and even better people. They have a work ethic that’s like no other and they put 110% on that stage every night. Do yourself a favor and see The Raskins perform as soon as possible and buy their record now. They have a long and successful future ahead of them.
By 9am this morning the clouds cleared out and we have been getting a nice dose of sunshine. That sunshine will warm us up to the upper-80s today. That will be one of the ingredients for thunderstorms this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe weather today. We have a chance to see damaging wind gusts and hail if strong storms develop this afternoon.
Future Trak @ 2pm
Tonight we will see more rain as cooler air moves in from the north. For the next several days, starting tomorrow we will see northeast winds. These winds will keep us cooler and eventually dry. By Sunday we will be dry with highs near 80 degrees. The extended forecast looks dry as high pressure builds in to keep Hampton Roads dry into Wednesday.
Tropical Wave near Puerto Rico
We will see this storm move towards the Bahamas into the weekend. The National Hurricane Center will be sending another plane into the storm this afternoon to gather more data. They expect it to become a tropical storm by this weekend. The tracks are still all over the place, but there is starting to be more of a trend. That trend moves it due north towards Bermuda. On Wednesday, the models do keep it offshore from Hampton Roads, but still close by. We could see strong winds (30-40mph) because of the storm for the OBX if it gets any closer. At this point it is still early to really tell what exactly is going on. We will keep an eye on it over the weekend.
We had one thunderstorm develop this morning near Edenton and Hertford. As we go into the midday hours we will see more sunshine with temperatures climbing to the upper-80s. There is a new storm system in the Midwest right now. That is expected to move closer to our area by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday.
Future Trak Friday @ 3pm
The rain should begin after 2-3pm tomorrow. The storm system will move offshore Saturday and Sunday which will push in a strong northeast wind. That breeze will push in a new swell of waves for the VB Oceanfront and the OBX. That is good news for the ECSC where waves have been small all week.
Chest High + Waves may move in on Sunday. That will also mean we will see a high threat for rip currents this weekend.One of the issues will be the wind. That onshore breeze will keep the choppy conditions at the oceanfront.
I am still watching a storm system in the Atlantic, as of now it still is disorganized, but is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours.
Past this weekend, there is still low confidence in the models. The trend has it moving towards Bermuda and staying out to sea. Remember yesterday the tracks had it near the Gulf of Mexico. I will continue to watch this storm over the next few days.
It’s one of my favorite events of the summer and it’s happening this weekend, the 52nd annual East Coast Surfing Championship. Professional surfers from all over the world converge on the Oceanfront to take on our swells and their competitors but there’s a lot more than the great surfing at ECSC – there’s skating, BMX, a 5K (your truly will be running), flag football, volleyball, the famous Miss ECSC swimsuit pageant and, of course, the music.
This year’s lineup is one of the best ECSC has ever had, with a great mix of local and national artists including several Live Music Friday alums. They will all be performing on a newly constructed massive beach stage on 4th Street. The music kicks off tonight at 5:30p with the great Brian Grilli, who will be playing songs from his album ‘A Damn Good Day’ and Natalie Stovall and the Drive. Below is the rest of the lineup for the weekend, so make sure you get out there and checkout all of the great acts – oh, did I mention that all of the concerts are FREE!
Brian Grilli – 5:30-6:45p
Natalie Stovall and the Drive – 7:05-8:30p
Cheap Thrills – 4:30-5:40p
Karnivale – 6:00-7:05p
The Deloreans – 7:15-8:25p
Bria Kelly – 8:45-10:00p
Freedom Hawk – 3:30-4:30p
Seth Stainback and Roosterfoot – 6:00p-7:00p
Jesse Chong Band – 7:20p-8:20p
Vans Presents: Plain White T’s – 8:45-10:00p