Weather

Tracking Rain and Snow

March 16th, 2014 at 9:28 am by under Weather

I have been watching this storm system closely for the past few days. One thing that has changed the most since yesterday is the models are trending for a warmer solution. If the models are warmer, that means less snow and more rain across our area.

Future Trak @3pm Today

Future Trak @3pm Today

We’ll see scattered showers move in across the Tidewater area around 2-3pm today. At this point, no sleet or snow is expected.

Future Trak @ 11pm

Future Trak @ 11pm

Late this evening we’ll start to see the rain changing over to sleet/snow across the Middle Peninsula, N. Neck, and Accomac County on the Eastern Shore. If you live in this area, you have the best chance to see some accumulations. If you are south of that line, snow totals will be minimal.

Storms Moves Out Tomorrow Morning

Storms Moves Out Tomorrow Morning

The wintry precip begins to fade away tomorrow morning which should decrease the impact across many areas.

Snow Totals For Tonight/Tomorrow Morning

Snow Totals For Tonight/Tomorrow Morning

The majority of the Hampton Roads cities will be spared from this storm only receiving a chilly rainfall. Other areas to the north still have a chance to see snow. Travel will be difficult tonight and tomorrow in the areas where the snow falls. Temperatures will be near 37 tomorrow afternoon, so the melting process will be slow for areas that do receive snow and ice.

We will see more rain Late on Monday night and also Tuesday before we dry out on Wednesday.

 

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Winter Storm Watches Posted!

March 15th, 2014 at 9:38 pm by under Weather

After seeing highs in the 70s today, it is hard to talk about snow and highs only in the 40s tomorrow.

Today's Highs

Today’s Highs

There will be a 25-30 degree temperature drop between highs today and forecast highs on Sunday. A cold front will move in overnight switching our winds out of the north at 10-15mph. We are tracking a piece of energy over Texas which will combine with an area of low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas to bring us a mixed bag of precipitation across Hampton Roads late Sunday into Monday. Winter Storm Watches have been posted across our northern areas from Sunday evening until Monday afternoon.

Winter Storm Watch

Winter Storm Watch

Areas highlighted in blue have the best chances for seeing higher snow accumulations. We should see more of a wintry mix across the Peninsula and more of a rain event across the Southside and North Carolina, which would lower potential snow totals.

If you are running in the Shamrock 1/2 marathon or full marathon Sunday morning, dress for the colder weather. It will be dry, but chilly with temperatures in the lower 40s. We will start off with some sunshine, but the clouds will quickly move in by the late morning hours. Rain showers should move in after 3 PM. Any rain that tries to move in before 3 PM will likely evaporate before reaching the ground since we have a lot of dry air in place right now. Notice that the rain is mainly located across the Southside and North Carolina at 5 PM, so most of your Sunday will remain dry, but much colder.

Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday

Before midnight, the rain should change over to snow and sleet north of the Southside, mainly across our northern areas. Keep in mind that the rain/snow line could easily shift a little farther to the south or a little bit more to the north. This would have a big impact on snow totals.

Future Trak  at 12 AM Monday

Temperatures will continue to fall close to the freezing mark for areas north of the Peninsula by Monday morning. This is where the best chance will be for accumulating snow. Keep in mind that the ground temperatures are very warm, especially after a 70° day today. Jeff talked about this in his blog he wrote earlier today. So, it will be hard for the wintry precipitation to overcome the warm ground for areas south of the Middle Peninsula.

Future Trak  ar 12 PM Monday

Future Trak at 7 AM Monday

It will be a wet Monday morning commute for most people. Travel will become more difficult the farther north you go. Here is my latest thinking regarding snow totals.

Snow Totals

Forecast Snow Totals

Highest totals should still be across the northern zones with the minimal accumulations across the metro areas. This will be mainly a rain event for the Southside and North Carolina. We may see a little bit of sleet and snow mix in across the Southside at times, but I think any snow/sleet will melt on contact with temperatures above freezing. The forecast for the Peninsula is tricky because that is where the rain/snow line will be located. If the Peninsula sees more sleet, then the 1-2″ forecast will be too high. This map is subject to change. Stay tuned!

I will have another update on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX 43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Make sure you tune into WAVY News 10 starting at 6 AM Sunday morning. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will have another computer model update at this time.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 

 


Nice Today; Is Winter Really Over Yet?

March 15th, 2014 at 10:01 am by under Weather
Another Nice Sunrise Today

Another Nice Sunrise Today

We had another nice sunrise today with the passing clouds we had overnight. For today, mostly sunny skies with a nice breeze is what I would count on. High temperatures should be near 70 degrees. Tonight we will see mostly clear skies with lows near 42.

Tomorrow is the day to watch as we have another storm system to track.

Future Trak @ 5pm

Future Trak @ 5pm

For the majority of the day we will see cloudy skies with a strong northeast wind at 10-20mph. I am not expecting any rain until 4-5pm. For the Shamrock Marathon in Virginia Beach, it will be dry and cool tomorrow morning.

Future Trak @ 8pm

Future Trak @ 8pm

As more moisture moves in from the south, the cold air will change the type of precip from rain to snow for the Hampton Roads cities and even for the Eastern Shore. Some other models have the colder air further to the north, meaning more rain and less snow.

Future Trak @ 6am Monday

Future Trak @ 6am Monday

The storm starts to wrap up around midday on Monday. Snow totals from this latest run of Future Trak are high:

Future Trak Snow Totals

Future Trak Snow Totals

I like what the model is doing for the Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore, but I think it is going too high for the Peninsula and Southside. There are two factors I want to point out: 1. The Soil temperatures are warmer which will “eat” some of the snow that falls on it. 2. For the areas I just mentioned, the majority of the precip type will be sleet which is more compact than snow.

My Snow Total Map

My Snow Total Map

Right now, I am being cautious with my totals and trying to find a nice blend between all of the models I looked at this morning. I am also thinking of factors 1 & 2 that I just talked about. This map is subject to more change. Keep an eye our for an update from Tiffany tonight.

Bread & Milk Index: 3 Out of 5

Bread & Milk Index: 3 Out of 5

I kept the index at a 3/5 today just because the confidence is still low on how much snow we may actually get, or not get. It’s still not a bad idea to get the supplies before tomorrow evening. Also, there is a chance we could see additional rain and if it is cold enough, snow again Tuesday.

Regardless of the forecast for this week, lets enjoy the 70 degree weather today!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


More Sun Today, Getting Warmer

March 14th, 2014 at 11:26 am by under Weather

We are in a Two-Day warming trend across Hampton Roads.

Morning Sunrise

Morning Sunrise

We are going to see plenty of sunshine today and tomorrow thanks to an area of high pressure in control. That high pressure will also promote warmer temperatures.

Warm Airmass Moving In

Warm Airmass Moving In

Southwest winds at 10-15mph are expected for today and tomorrow. This will keep our highs at or above average today and we will be in to the 60s tomorrow. This pattern will only last through tomorrow, on Sunday we will have to track a new storm system. The good news is that the next area of low pressure moving in will just bring us rainfall. The latest computer models have been slowly trending warmer, so we shouldn’t have to worry about snow in our area. The latest says that the rain will arrive Sunday afternoon.

Enjoy the mild temperatures!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Winter Has Returned!

March 13th, 2014 at 8:32 am by under Weather

As promised the cold air has arrived.  The cold front arrived last night with some brief showers and some gusty winds.  There were no reports of damage, but there were a few gusts above 40mph.

Cold Front Last Night

Cold Front Last Night

The rain was so brief that most folks barely had two-tenths of an inch.  There probably aren’t too many people complaining about that.  Temperatures dropped to the low/mid 30s this morning.  Wind chills were in the 20s.  As we go through the morning, we’ll see the winds increase.  They were already running from the northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph.  Gusts will increase to 35mph later today.  We’ll have a lot of sunshine as high pressure controls our skies today.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Temperatures will struggle to reach the low 40s this afternoon.  Some areas will only see highs in the upper 30s.  Wind chills will be in the low 30s this afternoon.  Bundle up if you haven’t already.  And don’t worry about the layer thing today.  It will be cold from start to finish.

By tonight the winds will taper off.  Temperatures will drop to the mid-upper 20s with a few 30s near the shore.  Be sure to cover up any flowering plants before tonight.  They will take a hit with lows in the 20s.  Bring in the potted plants and the pets.  You may even want to drip the faucets in some of the inland locations.  I don’t think you’ll have to do that if you live near the coast or shore, and most of the metro should be ok.

Tomorrow the high will slide east allowing for a more southwesterly breeze.  With the ample sunshine we’ll warm from the 20s in the morning up to the low/mid 50s by the afternoon.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we even hit some upper 50s.  Then Saturday looks even better.  The forecast has dried up completely.  So Saturday will be partly sunny now with highs in the low 60s.  The forecast for Sunday has also changed. The rain has been pushed back more and more.  So now it looks like rain will hold off until Sunday afternoon, and will last through Sunday night into Monday.  A stray shower may still be possible Sunday morning, but the bulk of the rain will fall later in the day.  It will be cold again on Monday with highs again near 40.

For those wondering…I will start doing a pollen forecast soon.  It hasn’t hit me too bad just yet, but it’s coming.  Especially with the warm spells and budding trees.  Stay tuned.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Severe Weather Chances For Tonight

March 12th, 2014 at 5:27 pm by under Weather

As a strong cold front moves closer to Hampton Roads, we have a risk for seeing severe weather.

Slight Risk & A Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Slight Risk & A Severe Thunderstorm Watch

All of the areas in the slight risk are in the severe thunderstorm watch tonight until 10pm. The biggest risks are for damaging wind gusts as these storms move in. The risks for hail, flooding and tornadoes remains very low with this setup.

Future Trak @ 6pm

Future Trak @ 6pm

Future Trak @ 9pm

Future Trak @ 9pm

The storms are moving to the East at 45mph. We will likely see the storms across the Hampton Roads Cities around 8pm. The storms will be gone by 10pm. Don Slater will be tracking the storms with Super Doppler 10 all evening on WAVY TV 10.

Stay Sky Aware and stay tuned for warnings.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 


The Spring Tease

March 12th, 2014 at 9:07 am by under Weather

I was out in the yard yesterday doing some yard work.  My trees still drop a lot of leaves during the Winter.  So I have to rake for about 7 months out of the year.  It’s that time again.  It’s worth it though to make the yard look good, and to enjoy the weather.  In the back of my mind I kept imagining Thursday’s weather when I’ll probably be bundled up in 4 layers of clothing.  Big changes are on the way.

It was a real mess in Chicago this morning.  Residents there were getting dumped on with snow.

Midwest Snow-Southeast Rain

Midwest Snow-Southeast Rain

A large area of low pressure was moving from Illinois towards Ohio.  The snow will keep moving east and affect a large part of the Ohio River Valley, the Great Lakes area, and the northeast states.  Some states will see a foot of snow.  We are not expecting snow here, but we will get the cold.  Today we will still be very warm.  Despite lots of clouds, we’ll go for highs in the 70s.  I was thinking upper 70s, but now I’m thinking mid 70s due to the clouds thickening early.  We’ll see a few showers in the late morning to early afternoon. Then we’ll see some scattered showers and storms during the late afternoon into the evening.  A cold front will stay to our west today, but it will move in this evening.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Winds will gust up to 25-30mph out of the southwest this afternoon, but we could see some gusts above 40mph this evening as the front passes.  The chance for severe weather is hard to pin down.  The Storm Prediction Center has our area on the very edge of the slight risk.  Most of us are not in the slight risk, but I’m curious to see the updates.  In my mind, we have a few things working against severe weather.  The first is the ample cloud cover that’s out there.  That is always a big factor when it comes to severe forecasting.  Also, we don’t have a lot of deep moisture in place. In fact…dew points are only going to be in the mid 50s later today.  That’s not impressive.  Upper level winds are strong, but you need big thunderstorms to be able to pull those stronger winds down to the surface.  So for now I think we’ll just see a few strong storms this evening. An isolated severe storm is possible.

Here is the front and the rain on Future Trak at 8pm.  That’s about the best time best time to see storms:

Future Trak 9pm

Future Trak 8pm

Once the front comes through the winds will turn out of the northwest, and temperatures will drop like a brick.  A heavy brick.  So lows tonight will fall all the way down to the low 30s.  Keep that in mind for the sensitive plants that are blooming in the yards.  You may want to cover them with some mulch.  If you’re like me, then you can take some pine straw and cover a few things up.  My day lilies are flowering.  If you don’t get it done today, then you will need to tomorrow as low temps Thursday night will be in the upper 20s. That will be a bigger hit to the flora and fauna.

I didn’t mean to skip tomorrow’s forecast.  I just wanted to stay on topic.  Ahem.. so tomorrow we’ll see partly cloudy skies, but the strong northwest winds will keep the temperatures down.  We’ll be in the 30s almost all day.  We’ll top-off just around 40 degrees for an hour or two.  Remember it will feel like the 20s in the morning with the wind chills.  It will feel like the low 30s during the afternoon.

We will warm up a bit on Friday.  We’ll be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40s.  Then there’s Saturday… The models have been pushing the timing of the rain back.  So that is good news for the St. Patrick’s Day parade and some of the events for the Shamrock Marathon.  For now it looks like some scattered showers late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.  However, it’s possible that the rain may keep getting pushed back.  If it goes into Sunday morning, then that will impact the bigger races for the Shamrock.  I’ll be able to lock that down tomorrow when the weekend gets into closer range of the hi-res models.

Until then.  Get the coats back out of the closet.  You’ll need them by tomorrow.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

 

 


Here We Go Again!

March 11th, 2014 at 8:46 am by under Weather

Here it comes.  Another huge warmup followed by a mega 24-hour cool down.  Without looking it up, I figure we had about 5-6 of these since mid December.  In some cases we had severe weather.  In others we had snow.  This time I’m not expecting terrible weather, but the winds will pick up.  First off, let’s talk about the best part of the forecast…Today!

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Unlike yesterday’s cold start in the 30s, today we had lows in the 50s.  It was great.  Winds will keep running out of the southwest at about 10mph.  High pressure is in control.  Throw in lots of sunshine and voila….It’s going to be a wonderful day.  Highs will be in the low/mid 70s.  Now if the winds let up just a little bit, then we could get a sea breeze to form.  That would cool down some cities right near the shore.  I believe that happened yesterday in Virginia Beach. So keep that in mind.  Either way it will be great.

Tonight we’ll increase the clouds a bit with lows in the 50s again.  By tomorrow morning we could see some spotty showers.  Isolated to scattered showers will be possible about any time tomorrow although our Future Trak model does dry things up in the early afternoon.  Other models show a few showers and storms at that time.  We’ll have mostly cloudy skies, but the winds will pick up out of the southwest.  So highs will still manage to rise into the low/mid 70s.  A cold front will approach from the west through the day, but we’ll stay in the warm sector for almost all the daylight hours.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

A broken line of showers and storms is expected to develop out ahead of the front by the evening.

Future Trak (6pm Wed.)

Future Trak (8pm Wed.)

Stay tuned as the timing for this will be a little variable.  That’s due to the models and how they have a tough time detecting the local scale winds.  Winds ahead of the front will be southwest at 10-20mph and gusts to 25mph, but during the evening gusts may get above 35mph.  Behind the front the winds will turn north/northwest.  That will develop into a very cold wind.  Temperatures will drop sharply, and lows will be in the low 30s.  A couple of flurries are possible at the end, but we aren’t expecting any accumulating snow.  I don’t think we’ll see much rain from this system, but perhaps a few folks could see a quarter of an inch.

On Thursday we’ll see dry weather, but a very strong wind out of the north (gusts to 40mph) will keep the temperatures from rising above the low 40s.  We might even see highs in the upper 30s over parts of the region.  Wow!  That will be a 30-35 degree drop in temps over a 24 hour period.  Again, we’ve seen this a few times this year.

We’ll warm up a little on Friday, but only to the upper 40s.  We’ll warm up again over the weekend.  However, there is now a chance for a few showers on Saturday.  That could affect the St. Patrick’s Day parade in Norfolk, and also some of the races for the Shamrock marathon in Virginia Beach.  The chance is low for now, and really only on 1 computer model (GFS).  But that model has shown rain for Saturday over the last 4 runs.  Hopefully, the updates will dry up the forecast before we get to that point.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

 

 


Roller Coaster Temperatures Continue

March 9th, 2014 at 9:16 pm by under Weather

I hope everyone enjoyed the warmer weather this weekend! It was a perfect weekend for the McDonald Garden Show in Hampton too. I just want to say thank you to all of the nice people that stopped by the WAVY booth to say hi to me earlier this afternoon. If you bought plants and flowers at the garden show, you may want to wait a week to plant them. We could see temperatures dip below freezing by the end of the week.

The roller coaster temperature ride will continue this week. It will feel like spring Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will be a transition day. Then winter returns Thursday and Friday. A trough (big dip in the jet stream) will begin to form out west as the next storm system starts developing. When this happens, we usually warm up as a ridge develops over us.

Jet Stream Monday-Tuesday

Jet Stream Monday-Tuesday

Highs on Monday will be in the mid/upper 60s and we should see temperatures around 70° on Tuesday. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Wednesday will be our transition day, but still warm with highs in the 60s. Rain will move in during the afternoon ahead of our next cold front. With temperatures in the 60s, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a few thunderstorms develop. Cold front will move in during the early evening.

Future Trak at & PM Wednesday

Future Trak at 7 PM Wednesday

Computers models are hinting that we may see the rain change over to snow for some of us before ending all together early Thursday morning.

Future Trak at 12 AM Thursday

Future Trak at 12 AM Thursday

If we see any snow, it would only be for a very short time and we are not expecting any accumulation at this time. This all depends on if the cold air can move in before the moisture moves out. It is common for drier air to move in sooner than what the models show. In these cases, the precipitation usually ends before the cold air can really get locked into place. So right now, 3 days out, it looks like we may see a few snow showers behind the front. Stay tuned for updates. Cold weather returns for Thursday and Friday.

Jet Stream Thursday-Friday

Jet Stream Thursday-Friday

This is what the weather pattern will look like again Thursday and Friday. You may recognize this pattern by now because this is exactly what we have seen over the past 2-3 months. There has been a deep trough carved out over the eastern U.S. This helps keep the cold air in place across the east with warmer air trapped out west.

Lately, I have heard many Virginians say that this is one of the coldest winters they have ever experienced in Hampton Roads. After analyzing some data, I have come to the conclusion that this winter has been abnormally cold, but not the coldest on record. We have had a lot of extremes (cold and warm) this winter, which can balance each other out. Don’t get me wrong, we have seen many days where temperature didn’t crack 32° during the daytime hours. But we also set many new record highs. In December, we saw two 80° days! Here is the breakdown of each month with the temperature and precipitation data compared to average.

This Winter Compared to Average

This Winter Compared to Average For Norfolk

All of the high and low temperatures for each month are averaged out to a specific number. Then that number is either above or below average. The month of December was warmer than average, while January and February were colder than average. January 2014 was the 6th snowiest January on record with Norfolk seeing a total of 11.5″ of snow that month. The numbers show that this past winter has been colder and snowier than average, much different from just last year. The countdown to spring is on….only 11 more days!!!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Warmer With Sunshine Today

March 8th, 2014 at 9:17 am by under Weather
Clear Start

A Clear Start

Before the sun came up this morning our skies were clear. Today is looking like a sunny and warmer day across Hampton Roads. If you are interested in enjoying the day on the water be careful as there are still high waves from yesterday’s storm. Waves will be 3-5ft in the Ocean and 2-3ft in the Bay today.

High Pressure is in control.

High Pressure is in control.

An area of high pressure is in control just for today, tomorrow another changes is going to come. For Sunday, a cold front is going to pass by which will once again drop our temperatures. It isn’t going to be cold tomorrow, but there will be a chilly wind. We may also see a stray shower in the morning.

Passing Cold Front Tomorrow Morning

Passing Cold Front Tomorrow Morning

Future Trak has a few showers across the Eastern Shore and the Middle Peninsula tomorrow morning, We may also see a sprinkle across the Peninsula and the Southside around 8-9am. By 10am all of the models have us dry with Mostly Cloudy skies. The cooler air from the north will also be drier. That dry air will help to erase any cloud cover we have in the afternoon. Highs will be near 50 tomorrow.

Longer range models are warming us back up on Monday and Tuesday with highs back in the 60s. Besides tomorrow, we should remain dry until Wednesday.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson