Weather

Drier And Cooler Breezes.

April 21st, 2015 at 8:16 am by under Weather

It’s always fun to get a text at 12:45 in the morning telling you that there is a tornado watch until 5am.  Being the next meteorologist on deck, I decided to get up and check the radar.  Sure enough we had a line of showers and storms flare up ahead of the cold front during that time.  Oy!   So I headed in.  Luckily the storms didn’t produce any warnings in our area, but the rain was very heavy.  Check out the satellite/radar at 3:00am:

Satellite/Radar (3am)

Satellite/Radar (3am)

I did see a couple of reports of small hail, but otherwise it was just heavy rain and gusty winds.  However, there were a lot of severe weather reports in the region.  Mostly over central and western North Carolina:

Storm Reports

Storm Reports

The cold front has since moved through and now we are drying out:

Cold Front Moving Through

Cold Front Moving Through

Winds have turned out of the west/northwest and dew points are dropping into the 50s.  They will keep dropping through the day to the 40s.  So it is going to feel great out there with highs in the low/mid 70s.   The only real negative will be the pollen.  It will be at about an 8 out of 10 today.  Tonight we’ll see clear skies and light southwest winds.  Temps will drop down to the upper 40s to low 50s.   It will get a little chilly.  Plants and pets should be ok though.

Tomorrow we’ll be ahead of another cold front.  However, this time we won’t have the humidity out ahead of it like we did yesterday.  So that should stop any thunderstorms from forming.  However scattered showers are forecast for the late afternoon/early evening.  We’ll cool down for a while behind that front.   In fact…highs will only be in the low/mid 60s for about 5-6 days.  The average high is 69 degrees.  The period will be mostly cool and dry, but a few showers on Saturday as a weak area of low pressure forms well to our south.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Stormy Night Ahead!

April 20th, 2015 at 6:36 pm by under Weather

A severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued for most of our viewing area until 10 PM.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

The clouds cleared out and the sun came out today allowing temperatures to heat up into the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon. Any storm that pushes in before sunset (7:45 PM) will be able to tap into more instability and will have a better chance of turning severe. Any storm that pushes in after sunset will probably not be as strong. The main threat with any storm that turns severe will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph and quarter size hail. Here is the solution from our latest Future Trak computer model. A few isolated discrete storms will be possible between 7 PM-9PM with the activity becoming more widespread from 9 PM-12 AM.

Future Trak at 10 PM

Future Trak at 10 PM

It looks like the storms will become more linear tonight. If that happens, the damaging wind potential will still exist. Rain and storms will come to an end after midnight as a cold front drops southward. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front. Temperatures will drop into the lower 60s by tomorrow morning. Tuesday is looking spectacular! Lots of sunshine and lower humidity with highs in the lower 70s.

If you have any storm pictures or damage pictures, please send them to reportit@wavy.com or post to our social media pages. Now is a good time to download the WAVY Weather app, so you can track the storms with us. Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be tracking these storms all night and will have a complete update on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Stay tuned!

 

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Lots Of Heat, Then Strong Evening Storms

April 20th, 2015 at 9:12 am by under Weather

This morning things were heating up on the radars and on the thermometers.  (I’m here all week!).  A warm front was lifting through the region and focused the rain in a line that moved through Hampton Roads.  Here was the view on radar at about 3am:

Radar At 3am

Radar At 3am

We had reports of a few flooded roads as well as 1 report of a tree down in Virginia Beach.  Between last night’s rain and the deluge we had this morning, there was a good amount of rain in the local gauges.  Here are some of the totals:

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

Norfolk had 1.04″ inches, but the highest amounts were in Suffolk and Chesapeake with 2.15″ and 2.57″ respectively.   Edenton had a soaker with 2.72″.  Now the warm front is to our north and the rain is offshore to the east.  We’ll see clearing skies today.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-20mph.  This is a recipe for maximum warming in the region.  So high temps will rise to the mid-upper 80s.  Along with the heat, it will be fairly humid too.  Dew points will be in the 60s.  Luckily there will be a good breeze.  So that should help to make us feel a little more comfortable.  By this evening we’ll see a return of some scattered showers and storms.  Now the models differ a little on the coverage, but trend is agreed upon.  Here is what our Future Trak computer model looks like at 9pm:

Future Trak (9pm)

Future Trak (9pm)

Some models have more coverage of the thunderstorms.  Ours is a bit more isolated to scattered.  I think there will be more coverage than this, but probably not area-wide.  Regardless, there is a chance for severe weather during the evening.  As I write this there is an enhance risk for severe weather for most of the entire viewing area except there is a slight risk in northeast North Carolina.

Risk For Severe Weather

Risk For Severe Weather

 

The risk may be upgraded or downgraded later today.  Overall there have been changes to the severe weather risk this year that the Storm Prediction Center  (NOAA) puts out.  The risk used to have 3 categories (slight, moderate, high) along with an area of general thunderstorms.  Now the risk is 5 tiered along with the general thunderstorm area.  Here is a graphic that shows the updated version.

Understanding Categories

Severe weather risk categories from the Storm Predicition Center in Normal Oklahoma.

This is good in that we can gauge the risk for severe weather a little better.  The slight risk is less broad now.  The only potential problem is that it may be hard for the public to differentiate between the levels.  Especially when there is a large gradient.  We will likely tweak how we present this information in the future.  Any suggestions would be most appreciated.  You can leave them in the comments below.

Anyway, the main threat from the storms would likely be gusty winds. Some large hail is also possible.  The threat for tornadoes is much lower (though not a complete zero threat).  There should be a decent amount of instability (tendency for storms to form) as well as some decent wind shear (upper level support).   If the timing changes for the storms, then that could change the risk.  For instance, if they are later then it will cool down a bit more.  So the threat may diminish.  A little sooner and the threat could increase.  Stay tuned for updates.

After midnight we’ll start drying out.  Lows will drop to the upper 50s to low 60s.  Then tomorrow the weather looks fabulous.  Mostly sunny with highs in the low 70s.  Lows humidity and west winds.  Nice! The only negative will be the pollen.  It crushed me this weekend.  Course it didn’t help that I was out camping in the woods.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Rainy Tonight, Storms Possible Monday

April 19th, 2015 at 9:36 pm by under Weather

At least we had a nice start to your Sunday, so hopefully you had the chance to take advantage of the pleasant weather before the rain moved in this evening. Expect a steady rain all night long. Rain will be heavy at times, especially after midnight. We can’t rule out the chance for an isolated thunderstorm, but we are not expecting severe weather overnight or early tomorrow morning. Rain is good news for all of the allergy sufferers out there, because this heavy rain will wash the pollen out of the air! So the pollen forecast for tomorrow will be low….at least some relief after a rough weekend.

A warm front will move in overnight, so expect temperatures to rise into the low to mid 60s by tomorrow morning. If you wake up early, expect rain for your morning commute.

Future Trak at 5 AM Monday

Future Trak at 5 AM Monday

By tomorrow morning, rain totals should range between 1-1.5 inches in the rain gauge. That is a good amount of rain in just about 12 hours. Showers will taper off from west to east anytime between 6-9 AM. Then the clouds will clear out and the sun will come out. It will be a warm and breezy day with highs in the low to mid 80s! Average high this time of year is 69° and the record high tomorrow is 91°. Most of the day will be rain-free. A line of showers and storms will develop out ahead of a cold front tomorrow night. Some of the computer models have this line of storms moving in after dark. If that is the case, then the severe potential will be limited. However, if these storms move in between 7-8 PM, like the model has below, then they will be able to tap into some instability before the sun sets around 7:45 PM.

Future Trak at 8 PM Monday

Future Trak at 8 PM Monday

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our area in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow.

Severe Weather Threat

Monday’s Severe Weather Threat

Time frame for storm development would be between 7 PM-1 AM. If any storm turns severe, then the main threats would be damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy rain. It really depends on what time these storms move in to whether we see severe weather tomorrow night. If these storms develop before or slightly after sunset, the chances for severe weather would be higher. If they develop later tomorrow night, then the chances would be lower. Stay tuned to this developing situation.

The cold front will move through after midnight. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front. It will feel great on Tuesday with highs in the lower 70s and less humidity. Full forecast is coming up on WAVY News 10 at 10 PM on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11 PM.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Nice Start, Shaky Finish

April 18th, 2015 at 7:31 am by under Weather

Despite a little bit of patchy fog, it was a nice start to the day – a few clouds with temperatures in the upper-50s to low-60s!

We had a great shot of the sunrise on Tower Cam 10:

Saturday Sunrise

Saturday Sunrise

Anytime you want to send us your cool weather photos, feel free to email us at REPORTIT@WAVY.COM or you can post them to our social media pages!  We always love to hear from you!

Morning clouds will give way to plenty of sunshine this afternoon across Hampton Roads.  If you’re going to be in North Carolina, expect more of a mix of sun and clouds along with a slight chance for a pop-up shower or two.  Don’t get me wrong – it’s not going to be a wet afternoon in North Carolina, but a few clouds may attempt to squeeze out a quick shower.

Future Trak Forecast - 5 PM

Future Trak Forecast – 5 PM

If you’re going to be in Ahoskie, Edenton, Elizabeth City – those are the places that have the best chance of seeing a quick pop-up shower.

Expect mainly clear skies overnight with temperatures dropping back into the mid-50s.  It’ll be a great night to open the windows and get some fresh air IF your allergies aren’t bothering you!  Just a warning, the pollen count will be high today and tomorrow!

We’ll start with mostly sunny skies Sunday morning.  You can see on our Future Trak Forecast, we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds by Noon.  As our next storm system approaches, clouds will fill in through the afternoon.  Most of your Sunday will be dry, so don’t cancel any outdoor plans!

Future Trak Forecast - 12 PM Sunday

Future Trak Forecast – 12 PM Sunday

Future Trak Forecast - 5 PM Sunday

Future Trak Forecast – 5 PM Sunday

After 7 PM, rain will start to spread into North Carolina and Hampton Roads.  Suffice to say, if you’re going to be out Sunday night, make sure you have an umbrella handy!  You’ll definitely want an umbrella as you head out the door Monday morning since we will be tracking steady rain through your morning commute.

Monday is actually going to be an interesting day.  As I said, we’ll start with rain Monday morning, but the rain will taper off just after your morning commute.  Between 9 AM to 3 PM, we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid to upper-70s.  Here’s the problem – the sun, coupled with a passing trough, will destabilize the atmosphere and lead to the re-development of showers and thunderstorms.  The Storm Prediction Center is already showing a slight chance for some isolated strong storms Monday afternoon with the primary threats being gusty winds and hail.  Take this with a grain of salt for nowthings can certainly change between now and then.  Just know that we’ll keep a close eye on it over the weekend!

In the meantime, have a great weekend!!

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


If Today Were A Movie. Also 2011 Tornado Outbreak.

April 17th, 2015 at 8:47 am by under Weather

If today’s weather were a movie, then it would actually be fairly dull and quiet.  No big players, no big plots, no big song and dance.  So why would I even mention it.  Probably, because I am an avid movie lover as well as a meteorologist.  And if you haven’t heard…The new trailer for the upcoming Star Wars sequel is out.  Here it is: Star Wars: The Force Awakens Trailer.   Also, you may have heard that the Super Man versus Batman trailer will be out on Monday officially.  There have been some leaks, but I won’t post them here.   I am very psyched about Star Wars, and I’m very curious about the D.C. movie. Even this Summer will be huge with the Avengers sequel and Jurassic Park.  I can’t wait.  Sorry, I just had to mention it.  This weekend will be more for the outdoors though.

As I mentioned…the weather today is pretty quiet, but a tad tricky too.  (oops I guess that’s a plot twist).  Like yesterday, we are in-between systems.  There is still an area of high pressure to the northeast.  There’s also a weak area of low pressure to the south.

In-Between Systems

In-Between Systems

There is a good amount of moisture in the region.  So that’s mainly why we’ve had some showers lately.  There were a few north of the metro this morning, but they were light and scattered.  Through the day we’ll see partly to mostly cloudy skies.  The trend has been for clearing around the midday hours with clouds returning in the afternoons and evenings.  Our computer model (Future Trak) shows isolated showers around the 3:00pm hour. (Give or take an hour)

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

The spotty showers will be light and brief today.  So most of the day will be good.  High temps will rise to the mid-upper 70s.  Winds will be light and from the southeast.  With the warm and moderately humid air in place we’ll see a lot of pollen in the air.  (And on the cars).  I put the pollen forecast up to a 10 out of 10.  Pollen counts will be between 1,000-2,000 grains.  It stinks, but you have been warned.

This evening a wind-shift line will move through the area from north to south.  This will create a few scattered showers between 9pm and 1am.  These will probably fall apart as they roll through Hampton Roads.  Tomorrow we’ll see drier weather behind the wind-shift line.  This boundary will settle across North Carolina.   So I expect a good amount of sunshine over most of the region, but a stray shower could pop up there .  Highs will still be in the mid 70s.  Winds will be out of the north at 8-12mph.

We’ll be dry for most of Sunday.  Highs will still be in the 70s.  However, rain will move in by the evening.  Then rain is likely Sunday night into Monday.  Monday could be a washout.  At least it will wash-out some of the pollen.  There’s a silver lining for you.

On a more somber note…yesterday was the 4 year anniversary of the tornado outbreak in the region.  We has numerous tornadoes in the region as well as several deaths.   Here is a link to more information from the National Weather Service in Wakefield: 2011 Tornadoes.  A meteorologist in Charlotte also has a nice blog about the tornadoes over the rest of North Carolina.  It has a little more information and the science behind the outbreak. 2011 Tornado blog. It was a rough month for the whole country. This was actually a smaller outbreak (relatively speaking) with an even larger one happening towards the end of April.  The outbreaks caused hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars in damage.  It was a scary time.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


No Big Systems

April 16th, 2015 at 7:32 am by under Weather

There is an area of high pressure to our north, but really there are no big weather systems in our region today.  Therefore, I will stop this Blog right now and take a nap……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

 

Ok. I guess I’ll add a little more detail.  The nap can wait.   Recently we’ve had a lot of rain showers to our west, but they have been very limited as they’ve moved east.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High pressure has been sliding east through the northeast states, but it has not moved down here.  Meanwhile moisture has moved back into central Virginia/North Carolina.  So our forecast is pretty quiet today.  We’ll see lots of clouds with an isolated shower possible.  Most of the rain should stay to our west.  Surface winds will be out of the northeast at 10-15mph.  So it will be cooler near the shore.  Highs will be in the 60s near the water and in most of the metro, but it will be in the 70s as you go just a little bit inland.

Tomorrow we’ll see a lot of the same except there will be a little more sunshine. This will allow the whole area to warm up to the 70s.  We’ll also lose the northeast wind.

Luckily the weekend forecast has dried up.  At this time both Saturday and Sunday look dry.  Now the rain looks to hold off until Sunday night.  With highs in the 70s, it is looking pretty good.  There will be a lot of rain in the region from Sunday night into Monday.  There will probably be some thunderstorms as well.

Ok.  Now on to my nap.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


The Rain Is Gone…Well Mostly.

April 15th, 2015 at 9:03 am by under Weather

As expected we saw some downpours yesterday evening.  Here was the view around 5pm Tuesday.

Radar (5pm Tue)

Radar (5pm Tue)

There were a few reports of street flooding over the Southside.  Mostly in Norfolk.  Here was one photo that was posted on our facebook page yesterday from Frizzell Ave:

Street Flooding In Norfolk

Street Flooding In Norfolk

The rain really added up in the rain bucket there.  Norfolk International Airport picked up 1.80″.

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

This brings the monthly total to 2.07″ which is 0.46″ above average.  It brings the rain totals up to 10.94″ for the year which is 0.87″ below average.  However, I like to remind folks that we had a significant amount of snow which likely added to the actual ground water for the year.

A cold front was the main focus for the rain yesterday.  The front is stalling out to our south today.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We had scattered sprinkles and light showers through the early morning, but they have since dried up.  High pressure is sliding east through Pennsylvania, but it is not sliding in our direction.  Notice that there is rain building to our southwest.  Most of that rain will stay away from our region.  However, a few models bring some of those showers into Hampton Roads late in the day.  So I’m calling for an isolated shower later this afternoon into the early evening.  Not much.  Regardless we will see the clouds increase again during that time.  The clouds and the north/northeast breeze will keep highs in the low/mid 60s.  The wind will blow at 10-20mph near the shore and 8-12mph inland.

Tonight we’ll hold on to the clouds, but there shouldn’t be any rain.  Maybe a few sprinkles.  Tomorrow we’ll see a somewhat similar setup.  So there will be scattered showers to our southwest with some isolated showers in Hampton Roads.  Here is what Future Trak shows by 3pm:

Future Trak (3pm Thu)

Future Trak (3pm Thu)

Keep in mind that I look at several computer models daily.  A couple of those models have quite a bit of the rain making it into Hampton Roads.  So for now I’m splitting the difference.  Highs will be in the 60s.  A few of the showers will linger into Friday morning.  Then we’ll dry out Friday afternoon into Saturday.  Yep…Dry!  That’s a change from yesterday.  The rain keeps getting pushed back.  So for now there looks to be showers on Sunday.  If this trend keeps up, then maybe we’ll be able to push the rain all the way into Monday.  I hope so, because I have some outdoor activities for scouts this weekend.  So that would be great.

In International News… It looks like California is not the only area to have a bad drought recently.  Apparently there is also a bad drought in Taiwan.  They are normally a wet country.  So it’s interesting to see their long-term response.  Here is an article with more details: Taiwan drought.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Rainy, But Turning Cooler Overnight

April 14th, 2015 at 6:06 pm by under Weather

It has been a rainy evening commute for most folks on this Tuesday. This is what it looks like out of Tower Cam 10 around 5:45 PM. Scattered showers will continue tonight as a cold front moves southward through the region. Can’t rule out an isolated storm, but chances are low right now.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Heavy rain will be the main threat tonight because we have plenty of moisture in place across the region. Watch out for some localized street flooding. Here is our Future Trak solution at 7 PM…still shows some heavy rain across the metro and North Carolina.

Future Trak

Rain should become more scattered closer to midnight and the rain should taper off by tomorrow morning.

Rain Chances Overnight

Rain Chances Overnight

Winds will turn more northerly and northeasterly tonight behind the front and usher in much cooler and drier air. Temperatures will drop into the mid 50s by Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be about 15 degrees cooler and much less humid with highs in the low to mid 60s. We will be watching a disturbance that will produce showers to our west Wednesday afternoon. Some of these showers could sneak into North Carolina and our westernmost counties across the Southside after 12 PM.

Future Trak at 3 PM Wednesday

Future Trak at 3 PM Wednesday

Here are the rain chances for tomorrow afternoon. I think most areas will stay dry.

Rain Chances Wednesday Afternoon

Rain Chances Wednesday Afternoon

Rain chances will be going back up Thursday and Friday. Keep the umbrella close by over the next few days!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Heavy Rain On The Way

April 14th, 2015 at 8:33 am by under Weather

The area of high pressure that brought us the nice weather yesterday is heading east.  Rain and humidity are moving in to take its place.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We did have some showers already this morning, but the heavier rain will move in later today.  A cold front to our north is steadily creeping into the region.   So far this has been a focus for heavy downpours, and it will do so in our region this afternoon/evening.  The morning commute was pretty good (in terms of weather), but the evening commute could be hampered by wet roads and lowered visibilities.  Here is the rain forecast from Future Trak at 5pm:

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

The area of heavy rain (orange/red areas) won’t be as widespread as it was in the deep south recently.    However, even light rain can slow down the Hampton Roads commutes.  So be ready for a possibly lengthy this evening.  A few thunderstorms are also possible, but the cloud cover and lack of upper level winds should keep the severe weather to our south.  Rain showers will taper off tonight.  A stray shower may linger into tomorrow morning, but then we’ll dry out.  Tomorrow there will be some rain close to the region, but it should stay just to our west.  Stay tuned in case the rain gets a little closer.  For now I only have a low chance for a shower.  Rain will add up over the next 24 hours.  We are looking at an inch for most cities.  There will be several cities that will get between 1-2″ of rain.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

Our model does a good job, but remember the area of heaviest rain can move around a bit. Also remember the time says 8:00am, but that is up through 8:00am tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will be warm today.  We started in the 60s, we’ll top off in the mid 70s with a few upper 70s.  It will be very warm and muggy.  Behind the front tomorrow we’ll see highs in the low 60s with a few upper 50s north of the metro.  It will be cooler with a north breeze at 10-20mph.

There will be another chance for rain on Thursday and early Friday.  This will be from some moisture and warmer temperatures returning.  The forecast for the weekend is tricky.  The models haven’t come into agreement on when the rain is going to move through.  So we’ll have to wait a day or two to let them settle out.  Basically though there are several weak systems which will move through the region over the next few days.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler