Weather

Supermoon, Higher Tides, More Rain Chances

August 10th, 2014 at 9:07 pm by under Weather

Tonight’s full moon is a supermoon, one of the five supermoons in 2014. A supermoon is when a new or full moon occurs at the same time the moon is at its closest point to Earth in its orbit. This supermoon in particular is the closest supermoon of the year, so it will appear bigger and brighter than all of the other full moons this year. On average, we see about 4-6 supermoons each year. The next and last supermoon of the year is on September 9th. Here is the view out of Tower Cam 10.

Supermoon Sunday

Supermoon Sunday

Tides are going to be higher than normal and lower than normal for the next few days. I put together this graphic showing the water levels for Sewells Point, which is a benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads. The threshold for minor tidal flooding occurs at 4.5 feet. Water levels should get close to 4 feet late tonight and during times of high tide tomorrow. When we see water levels get close to 4 feet, we can expect to see some nuisance tidal flooding.

Sewells Point Tides

Sewells Point Tides

Winds will increase out of the southeast tomorrow, so with an onshore wind and higher than normal tides, we are going to see a high risk for rip currents along the beaches tomorrow. Wave heights should range between 2-3+ feet. Moisture levels should also increase tomorrow, so we can’t rule out a few isolated showers, but many areas should miss out on the rain. Future Trak has a few rain showers developing around 12 PM.

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Any rain that develops tomorrow will be hit or miss. Rain chances really increase on Tuesday as our next storm system gets closer to us. The cold front will move in Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, rain chances will go away and we should cool back down into the lower 80s.

Tropics Update:

We are watching an area of showers and storms spinning south of the Cape Verde Islands, which is just west of the African coast. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a medium chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 5 days. Some computer models have it strengthening, as it moves west, and getting close to the Lesser Antilles by next weekend. This area of disturbed weather is still very far away, so we will have plenty of time to track it.

Invest 94 Tracks

Invest 94 Computer Model Tracks

Have a great work week!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Sunday’s Looking Dry For Most

August 9th, 2014 at 8:08 pm by under Weather

Some of us saw clouds today, while others saw rain. Some areas in North Carolina saw rain for most of the day! Check out these rain totals. Most of our Virginia counties missed out on the rain.

24-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

Areas that did see rain today could see patchy fog develop by tomorrow morning. Sunday’s forecast is looking drier.  With high pressure close by and the stationary front moving south into South Carolina, the best rain chances tomorrow will be well to the south of us, into South Carolina and Georgia. There will be a slight chance for an isolated shower, but most areas will stay dry tomorrow.

Sunday's Rain Chances

Sunday’s Rain Chances

I think we will start off with the clouds and then see a few more peeks of sunshine by tomorrow afternoon. High will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. If you plan on going to the beach tomorrow, keep in mind that there will be a moderate threat for rip currents. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Looking Good For the Weekend

August 9th, 2014 at 9:08 am by under Weather

This morning we woke up to a few showers across NE N.C., but across Virginia we had this view:

Sunny Morning

Sunny Morning

There has been a nice flow of dry air from the northeast for the past few days, that flow will continue today and tomorrow. It will keep us mostly dry across Hampton Roads.

Future Trak @ 3pm

Future Trak @ 3pm

As we warm up this afternoon, a popup shower may develop across Hampton Roads and areas to the north. I wouldn’t expect widespread showers, but more of a quick downpour. Highs will be near 80 today thanks to the sunshine and clouds. The ENE wind will keep places near the water in the 70s today.Tomorrow we will see passing clouds and sunshine. Highs should be near 78 tomorrow. I am thinking our next chance of widespread rain won’t come until Tuesday.

Surf Update

Our waves will be flat today from the lack of any swell in the region. We will see Easterly winds get stronger late tomorrow and Monday. That could bring in 2-4ft waves in by Tuesday. There may be a small window in the afternoon when the waves clean up.

Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


A Shifty Weekend?

August 8th, 2014 at 8:44 am by under Weather

The forecast over the last 24 hours has been very very….Shifty!  I’ve mentioned how the whole weather pattern has been frustrating for the past month or so.  When it comes to stationary or slow moving fronts this time of year, the models have a difficult time determining where the convection (thunderstorms) will form.  Case in point….this weekend.  Today is easy.  High pressure is in control.  Partly cloudy with highs in the 80s and a light northeast breeze.  Done!

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

By Saturday the area of low pressure over Tennessee is forecast to move east/southeast along a drifting stationary front.  Now yesterday some of the computer models had it moving to about central Virginia/North Carolina.  It brought the front north up to just south of our area.  This created a scenario where flooding rain was possible for our region.  But!  I mentioned in yesterday’s blog that I had a low confidence in this as the models haven’t handled things well lately.  The rain is very dependent on where the front and low setup.  So… since just last night the models have trended south/southwest with the rainfall.  In fact some of them now call for a pretty dry forecast for Hampton Roads.  I am skeptical.  Officially, I’m calling for some spotty showers tomorrow morning with a 30% chance for scattered showers tomorrow afternoon.  Then a 50% chance for rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.  (It was up to 70-80% during that time). The latest forecast from the Weather Prediction Center (a branch of NOAA) puts the heavy rain over central and western Virginia/North Carolina for the whole weekend.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

NOAA Rain Forecast

Now we need to be careful.  With such a dramatic shift in the last 18 hours, it’s possible that it could shift back the other way.  Heavy rain is possible for at least some of our northeast North Carolina counties. There has already been a lot of rain there lately. So localized flooding is still possible for some cities to the southwest.   Stay tuned for updates.

The low will move slowly to the southeast into Tuesday.  So at least some scattered showers are possible through then.

The Atlantic ocean is quiet, but Hawaii is dealing with Iselle this morning in the Pacific.  Luckily it had weakened on satellite before landfall.  Also the Central Pacific Hurricane Center had downgraded the storm.  In fact the winds were brought down to 60mph as it moved over land.  That was good news.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

The island is experiencing some strong gusty winds and heavy rain, but I believe the overall impacts won’t be too bad.  There have been some trees down and power outages so far.  There may be some mudslides along the higher elevations though.  The storm will move away from the big island later this morning and will weaken as it moves west.  Now Julio is a strong hurricane. However, it is likely to weaken and move north of the islands.  So I don’t think it will have much of an impact on the region.  Outside of a few problems, many residents will be just fine despite two storms near the Hawaiian waters.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Hawaiin Hurricane, And Local Rain Chances

August 7th, 2014 at 9:04 am by under Weather

What a year for rain.  One of the main rainfall records that the National Weather Service keeps is from Norfolk International Airport.  (The sensor was moved there years ago).  It has had 1.56″ already this month.  That is 0.40″ above the average.  However, we have had 30.96″ for the year already.  That is a whopping 3.38″ above the annual average.  So it has definitely been a wet year, and it doesn’t look like it is letting up soon.  Last night Norfolk only had a trace of rain. However, there were some scattered downpours elsewhere.  In fact there were some reports of trees down over parts of Isle of Wight County and Suffolk.

Radar Yesterday

Radar Yesterday

A cool front moved through the region last night and caused the scattered storms.  Today that front is to our south.

Cold Front In The Region

Cold Front In The Region

Yesterday temperatures were in the upper 80s to low 90s.  Behind the front today we’ll go more for low/mid 80s.  It will be a little drier, but it’s not going to be what I would call a dry day.  Just not as bad as yesterday.  Skies will be partly cloudy.  There may be a stray shower over some far inland locations and northeast North Carolina.  Otherwise the area is looking good.  Tomorrow we are looking even better. Skies will be mostly sunny.  It will be a little drier still. Highs will be in the mid 80s and winds will still be northeast at 5-10.  However, an area of low pressure will develop over the Tennessee River Valley by Friday night.  This will move into our region late Saturday into Sunday.  So the rain chances will increase from the late morning into the evening on Saturday.  Heavy rain is possible in the region Saturday night.  It’s possible that part of the area could see some flooding.  Stay tuned for updates.  I’ll have a lot more on that tomorrow as the models get a little closer in range.  They haven’t handled the weather very well over the past couple of weeks.  We’ll see if they change before then.

The Atlantic is quiet now.  Bertha is long gone.  However, things are pretty rough in the Pacific.  In fact hurricane Iselle will likely move right over the big Island of Hawaii.  At the moment there are 2 hurricanes which are heading in that direction.  (Iselle and Julio).

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

Julio is likely to pass north of the islands.  It may bring them some heavy rain and it will probably keep up the surge, but I think the overall impact will be low from the wind.  However, Iselle is forecast to bring wind gusts of near 90mph, flooding rain, and a storm surge of 1-3 feet.  Hilo may take some of the strongest winds and the storm is forecast to move just south of there.

Iselle Forecast

Iselle Forecast

It will pass south of Honolulu, but will probably still bring them some strong winds.  Stay tuned for updates.  Hopefully, those folks will fare the storm ok.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


More Heat, Humidity, Plus the Chance for Storms (Updated)

August 6th, 2014 at 9:31 am by under Weather

Midday Update: Bertha is now a post-tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. This means Bertha has lost its tropical characteristics and has merged with a frontal system offshore. This was the same system that brought us the rain over the past few days. A few showers and storms have already developed over Virginia Beach this afternoon. Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be tracking the storms for you on WAVY News 10 starting at 4 PM. You can always track the rain and storms on Super Doppler 10 Live.

The 90° heat is back, but not for too long. High temperatures should hit 90° for many locations this afternoon with highs the mid/upper 80s for coastal area. We haven’t see Norfolk hit 90° for about 2 weeks now. We are also tracking a cold front that will bring us a chance for showers and storms this afternoon. The cold front won’t move in until after midnight so any storms that develop this afternoon will be along a pre-frontal trough (wind shift line) and will likely be hit or miss. Storms will be possible anytime after 12 PM. Our Future Trak model has a few storms developing by 2 PM. Any storm that develops could be on the strong side with gusty winds and heavy rain as the main threats.

Future Trak at 2 PM

Future Trak at 2 PM

Rain chances will be a little be higher tonight as a cold front gets closer to the region.

Future Trak at 9 PM

Future Trak at 9 PM

Cold front will move through Hampton Roads after midnight tonight and should be south of the area by tomorrow morning. Thursday is looking cooler and drier overall with highs in the lower 80s and lower humidity.

Tropical Storm Bertha is still spinning out in the Atlantic and has maximum sustained winds of 50mph. Bertha is currently moving over an area with high wind shear. This should help weaken Bertha even more. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Bertha weakening to an area of low pressure early tomorrow morning. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bertha weakened to an area of low pressure tonight.

Tropical Storm Bertha

Tropical Storm Bertha

Bertha does not pose any threat to land, but it did impact use here in Hampton Roads yesterday. We saw higher waves yesterday and a high risk for rip currents. Wave heights will not be as high as yesterday, but will still be running above normal during the day today. Here is your beach forecast. The water will still be rough for swimmers, so swim near a lifeguard if possible.

Beach Forecast

Beach Forecast

If you plan on beating the heat by going to the pool or to the beach, make sure you keep an eye to the sky to watch for developing storms.

While Bertha weakens in the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific is really heating up with tropical activity. Hurricane Iselle is a category 1 hurricane and moving straight toward the Big Island of Hawaii. Iselle is forecast to weaken over the next few days as it impacts Hawaii Thursday and Friday. Julio was just upgraded to a hurricane early this morning.  Julio is currently trailing Iselle and could impact Hawaii by the end of the weekend. So Hawaii could get hit by 2 storms within a couple days of each other.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Tuesday 5 PM Bertha Update, Surf Forecast

August 5th, 2014 at 5:38 pm by under Weather

The 5 PM update from the National Hurricane Center is in and Bertha weakens even more. Maximum sustained winds are at 50mph. Bertha continues to weaken because it is currently moving into an area with very high wind shear especially on the west side of the storm.

Tropical Storm Bertha

Tropical Storm Bertha Weakens Even More

As Bertha weakens and moves farther away from the East Coast, wave heights will begin to subside. But the swell is still looking good for surfers tomorrow morning, especially since the winds will be more southwesterly at 5-10mph. Check out the forecast wave heights at 7 AM Wednesday morning. Waves will be biggest in the morning and then will start to come down during the afternoon.

Wave Heights Wednesday Morning

Wave Heights Wednesday Morning

Virginia Beach, Sandbridge, Croatan Wave Forecast:

AM: 2-4 feet
PM: 2-3 feet

Outer Banks Wave Forecast:

AM: 3-5 feet
PM: 3-4 feet

*Remember that red flags will likely be up at the beaches tomorrow due to a high risk for rip currents. Red flags mean that the water is dangerous for swimmers.

Weather looks good for the most part if you plan on going to the beach tomorrow. We will start off with partly cloudy conditions with temperatures in the 70s. The heat and humidity will be back too with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the coast with lower 90s inland. Keep an eye on the sky tomorrow afternoon as we will be tracking the chance for a few pop-up showers and storms out ahead of a cold front. Cold front will move through late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. We will dry out and cool back down Thursday afternoon with highs in the lower 80s.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Bertha Weakens, But Waves Increase (Updated)

August 5th, 2014 at 7:45 am by under Weather

Midday Update (See below for morning update):

Bertha has weakened even more and now has maximum sustained winds of 60mph. Bertha should continue to weaken as it will move into an area with high wind shear. Red flags are flying at the Virginia Beach Oceanfront thanks to Bertha. Waves heights will increase even more this afternoon and there will be a high threat for rip currents. Here is the latest beach forecast.

Beach Forecast

Today’s Beach Forecast

It has been interesting to track Bertha over the last couple of days.  It started as such a weak system, that it was hard to believe that it could become a hurricane.  Yesterday it was a hurricane, but it has already weakened back to a tropical storm since the overnight hours.  It is about 200 miles ESE of Hatteras, NC.  It is moving northeast at over 20mph and now has sustained winds around 65mph.  The storm really looked like it fell apart on the satellite.  Then a few storms fired up north of the center.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

The system is fairly disorganized.  It is beginning to move over cooler waters, and the wind shear has picked up as well.  So the storm may weaken a bit more in the short term.  It is forecast to stay as a tropical storm for the next 48 hours.  In that time, however, it will start to wrap in some cooler air and make the transition to extra-tropical.  That will probably happen Wednesday into Thursday, but may happen sooner.

Bertha Forecast

Bertha Forecast

While the storm will stay far from here, we will still see some impacts.  We will NOT see any rain nor any wind from Bertha.  Instead we will see an increase in waves.  About 4-6ft around the Outer Banks.  3-5 ft around Virginia Beach.  This will also, however, increase the rip current threat (high).  So swimmers will need to use caution.  Red flags will likely be flying at the beaches.

Other than those local affects, we have also had some nuisances in the region.  We had some patchy thick fog this morning in a few locations.  We also had some scattered light showers.  We’ll continue to see a few scattered showers today as moisture lingers behind a developing cold front.  This is the stationary front that has been sitting over the region for the past 3 days.

Cold Front Developing

Cold Front Developing

The cold front will slowly move away from the region today.  That should help skies to clear up a bit later this afternoon as some dryer air moves into the region.  The showers will be scattered with a 30% chance for rain.  There will be a little higher chance over northeast North Carolina.  Highs will be in the low/mid 80s with east winds at 5-10mph.

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with some warmer temperatures.  Highs will be in the upper 80s with just an isolated shower or storm late in the day.  There will be a few scattered showers tomorrow night into early Thursday. That will be another cold front moving through the region.  So we should dry out by Thursday afternoon. Then we are looking good through Saturday.  There will be a few showers trying to return by Sunday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Monday 5PM Update On Bertha

August 4th, 2014 at 5:22 pm by under Weather

The 5pm update just came in from the National Hurricane Center and Bertha remains a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75mph. Wind speeds have decreased a little bit as the hurricane looks a little bit more disorganized on satellite imagery. The Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Bertha to see if winds have decreased even more. Bertha is going to pass between the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda. Check out the latest track below.

Hurricane Bertha

Hurricane Bertha’s Track

Bertha should begin to weaken late Tuesday and Wednesday as it runs into cooler waters and increasing wind shear. Bertha will remain offshore but will still bring us higher waves and a high threat for rip currents Tuesday and Wednesday.

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

Surf Update

The track of this storm is perfect for a nice swell of waves for us across Virginia Beach and the OBX. Having a storm thread the needle between Bermuda and the USA should bring in some fun waves starting tomorrow. Lets talk about the swell; it will begin to arrive tomorrow afternoon with wave heights around 4-6ft for Hatteras and 3-5 for Kill Devil Hills/Nags Head. VB (including Croatan and Sandbridge) will see 2-4ft waves in the afternoon and evening. Our wind speeds should be Easterly at 5-10mph on Tuesday.

Wave Heights Wednesday

Wave Heights Wednesday

The surf could be fun tomorrow afternoon evening. Keep an eye on your favorite surf cam! On Wednesday, you may want to plan on some fun sets in the morning. We will likely see 3-4ft+ waves (Shoulder-High) for VB in the morning and around 3ft in the afternoon. For the OBX, you will see 3-5ft waves (Head) in the morning and 3-4ft in the afternoon. Our winds will be offshore on Wednesday (West 5-10mph).

Remember, the threats for rip currents will be high starting tomorrow and Wednesday, swim near a lifeguard and be careful if you want to swim.

 

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


More Rain, Bertha, And Waves

August 4th, 2014 at 8:49 am by under Weather

**11 AM Bertha Update Below**

Things have been pretty soggy for the past few days.  I’ve actually grown to like cool, cloudy, and rainy days.  I guess that’s a result of living in the Southeast for the past 15 years.  We have had some decent rain totals lately.  Some areas have had over 2″ of rain.

Rain Totals Fri-Sun

Rain Totals Fri-Sun

My Weather watcher, Brian in Smithfield, has had over 2″ of rain.  Yesterday the rain was confined to northeast North Carolina and a little over the Southside.  Today the rain is forecast to push back north along a stationary front.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The rain is forecast to pick up through the late morning and early afternoon.  The chance will be highest south/southeast and lowest north of the metro.  It is very humid outside.  High temps will be in the upper 70s to near 80. Winds will be light and easterly.

Tomorrow the front will turn into a cold front.  This will move east/southeast, and it will help to keep tropical storm Bertha out to sea.  Also the upper level winds should help to keep Bertha away.  So the forecast for Bertha is to move about half way between Hatteras and Bermuda.

Bertha Forecast

Bertha Forecast

Bertha is now forecast to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours.  Wind shear has already decreased and is forecast to decrease even more.  Also the Gulf Stream is providing for plenty of warm ocean water.  The confidence is high in the forecast track.  The forecast models are all in pretty good agreement.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

Bertha will eventually move north of Bermuda into the north Atlantic and will become extratropical by Friday.  While the winds will stay offshore from Bertha, it will increase the wave heights and rip current threat in the region.  So keep that in mind if you are going to the beach over the next couple of days.  Today it is a moderate threat, but it will be high by tomorrow.  Waves are about 2 feet today (maybe up to 3), but they will rise to 2-5ft tomorrow into Wednesday.  There might be some 5-6 footers down towards the Outer Banks.   Surfers should be happy.

11 AM Update: Bertha is now a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80mph.

Hurricane Bertha

Hurricane Bertha

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler