Here it comes. Another huge warmup followed by a mega 24-hour cool down. Without looking it up, I figure we had about 5-6 of these since mid December. In some cases we had severe weather. In others we had snow. This time I’m not expecting terrible weather, but the winds will pick up. First off, let’s talk about the best part of the forecast…Today!
Unlike yesterday’s cold start in the 30s, today we had lows in the 50s. It was great. Winds will keep running out of the southwest at about 10mph. High pressure is in control. Throw in lots of sunshine and voila….It’s going to be a wonderful day. Highs will be in the low/mid 70s. Now if the winds let up just a little bit, then we could get a sea breeze to form. That would cool down some cities right near the shore. I believe that happened yesterday in Virginia Beach. So keep that in mind. Either way it will be great.
Tonight we’ll increase the clouds a bit with lows in the 50s again. By tomorrow morning we could see some spotty showers. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible about any time tomorrow although our Future Trak model does dry things up in the early afternoon. Other models show a few showers and storms at that time. We’ll have mostly cloudy skies, but the winds will pick up out of the southwest. So highs will still manage to rise into the low/mid 70s. A cold front will approach from the west through the day, but we’ll stay in the warm sector for almost all the daylight hours.
A broken line of showers and storms is expected to develop out ahead of the front by the evening.
Stay tuned as the timing for this will be a little variable. That’s due to the models and how they have a tough time detecting the local scale winds. Winds ahead of the front will be southwest at 10-20mph and gusts to 25mph, but during the evening gusts may get above 35mph. Behind the front the winds will turn north/northwest. That will develop into a very cold wind. Temperatures will drop sharply, and lows will be in the low 30s. A couple of flurries are possible at the end, but we aren’t expecting any accumulating snow. I don’t think we’ll see much rain from this system, but perhaps a few folks could see a quarter of an inch.
On Thursday we’ll see dry weather, but a very strong wind out of the north (gusts to 40mph) will keep the temperatures from rising above the low 40s. We might even see highs in the upper 30s over parts of the region. Wow! That will be a 30-35 degree drop in temps over a 24 hour period. Again, we’ve seen this a few times this year.
We’ll warm up a little on Friday, but only to the upper 40s. We’ll warm up again over the weekend. However, there is now a chance for a few showers on Saturday. That could affect the St. Patrick’s Day parade in Norfolk, and also some of the races for the Shamrock marathon in Virginia Beach. The chance is low for now, and really only on 1 computer model (GFS). But that model has shown rain for Saturday over the last 4 runs. Hopefully, the updates will dry up the forecast before we get to that point.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler