Once again we are looking at a lot of clouds in the region. We have a weak area of high pressure to the north with a weak area of low pressure and a stationary front to the south.
Between 2 Systems
The moisture is trying to push north into the high. So we’ll see a lot of clouds, but not a lot of rain. There is a slight chance for a shower. We already saw one this morning over Norfolk and north Virginia Beach. Winds will be from the northeast at 10-15mph. This will keep the temperatures down later today. We’ll see highs in the mid 70s with some upper 70s inland. Tomorrow the low will move east. It will push slowly offshore. This should allow for some clearing, but perhaps not for everyone. Highs will stay in the 70s. Overall the models are showing a nice weekend ahead. Highs will warm from the mid 70s to near 80. We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds. There might be a few showers nearby, but so far they look to be mostly on the edge of the area. We’ll have updates.
In the tropics…Edouard continues to weaken over the north central Atlantic. It Is moving pretty quickly away from Bermuda.
Edouard On Satellite
It still has an eye even though it is moving northeast at about 20mph. It is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm by tomorrow. It will then become extratropical by Friday. It’s possible that it will curve south towards the end of the forecast, and it may even try to move back westward. However, this is pretty far out. So we’ll see. We will see some higher waves from Edouard today. Waves will run about 3-5 ft. The rip current threat will be up today as well. So be careful swimmers and surfers.
Meanwhile, Odile continues to bring heavy rain to Arizona. More flooding is expected today as the storm moves north.
Rain From Odile
I’ve been trying to think about it…. To my recollection I’ve never met or heard of anyone named Odile. It has an interesting origin though. Odile origin.
Speaking of tropics. A new study from Florida State is focusing on a new way to describe hurricane forecasts. It is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) scale, and it has been around for a while. However, soon it may be made more available to the public. Basically the hurricane wind scale just focuses on the maximum winds over a part of the storm. However, the IKE uses the max winds and the area of those wind speeds. Here is the article with more information: IKE forecasting. I would most welcome this scale. Hurricane Sandy would be a great of example of where it would have been very useful.
We are running a little warmer today, but it’s not a heat wave. Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80. We’ve seen a lot of clouds this morning with a few breaks to our west.
We’ve seen a few spotty showers in the region too, but they have been mostly north and south of Hampton Roads. A cold front is slowly pushing in from the northwest. It will be here later this afternoon. We’ll see a few showers along the front, but they should be spotty and light. Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 with a southwest breeze. Winds will turn out of the north as the front passes. Temps should hold in the upper 70s for a while as the front sinks south. Behind the front tomorrow we’ll be in the mid 70s with lots of clouds. So it’s not a huge difference in temperatures, but we’ll see a small rise today and a dip tomorrow. The good news is that high temps will stay in the 70s through the weekend.
Hurricane Edouard is an impressive hurricane in the central Atlantic.
It has a fairly large and distinct eye on satellite. The sustained winds were up to 110mph. This put it on the cusp between a category 2 and a category 3 hurricane. It is forecast to be a cat 3 by later today. Then it will be a major hurricane.
11 AM Update: Hurricane Edouard has become the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season. It is currently a category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115mph.
Luckily it will stay east of Bermuda. They will see some waves up to 12 feet today. Here on the U.S. east coast we’ll see some waves running about 3-5 ft with a few 6 footers possible. This will be for Wednesday into Thursday.
The storm will move into the cooler north Atlantic waters and will become extratropical by early next week.
In the west tropical storm Odile continues to move north of the Baja Peninsula.
Odile On Satellite
It is beginning to fall apart, but it will bring some more heavy rain to the region and to southern Arizona. Unfortunately, it looks like most of the rain will miss southern California. The wind has already caused extensive damage over parts of Mexico.
While there is some quiet weather locally, things are busy in the tropics. Last night Edouard became a hurricane, and it is now forecast to become the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season. This morning it was over 700 miles southeast of Bermuda and was heading northwest.
The hurricane will move northward by tomorrow and then northeast. This track will keep it away from Bermuda. At least the center. However, they may still see a little rain and some higher waves from the storm. The waves will travel (though weaken) all the way to the east coast. By Wednesday/Thursday the waves will try to rise up to about 3-5 feet (perhaps higher). There’s not as many swimmers out there right now, but the rip current threat will likely increase.
The storm will eventually become extratropical over the northeast Atlantic by the weekend.
Normally I don’t talk about hurricanes in the Pacific ocean. However, this one is noteworthy. Hurricane Odile (Oh-Deal) has hit the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula in Mexico. It moved ashore near Cabo San Lucas last night.
Odile was a major hurricane upon landfall. It had 115mph. This tied hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to hit that area since satellites began. The winds have come down a bit, but they are still very strong. This will create a lot of rain and damaging winds over the region. The silver lining is that it will eventually bring some rain to the southwestern U.S. Any rain in southern California would be a blessing. Stay tuned for updates.
Again, our local weather is quiet. We have a weak or “dirty” high in the region. This has allowed for some sunshine north with lots of clouds around the rest of the region.
Dirty High Nearby
Today we’ll go back and forth between partly and mostly cloudy. Highs will be in the mid 70s. It will be pretty nice out. Tomorrow a weak disturbance will move into the region. This will bring a few showers in the morning, and then a few more in the afternoon. They should be light and scattered. Winds will be out of the southwest tomorrow. So highs will rise to the upper 70s to near 80. We’ll resume with the cool temperatures from Wednesday into the weekend. There may be a few showers on Thursday, but overall the extended forecast looks quiet.
The weather today was PERFECT in my opinion. Felt more like fall with highs in the low to mid 70s and low humidity. The official start of the fall season begins Monday, September 22, so we are only a week away. Hopefully you had a chance to get outside for a little bit this afternoon.
Cooler and drier air moved in behind the front last night. Wind speeds have really come down, but the clouds should hang around overnight. The cloud cover will prevent most areas from seeing the air temperature fall all the way to the dew point temperature. But we will see some inland areas drop down into the upper 50s. These inland spots may see some patchy fog develop by the morning. Here are the forecast low temperatures overnight. You may need a light jacket or sweater early in the morning.
Another pleasant day is expected on Monday! Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with low humidity and a light breeze. A cold front will move in early Tuesday morning and bring us a chance for a few showers. The rain doesn’t look like it will be widespread at this time, just a few hit or miss showers.
Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday
We will dry out Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air will move back in and high temperatures will only be in the low to mid 70s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Average high this time of year is 80°.
Edouard has strengthened and is now a hurricane. Hurricane Edouard could reach category 3 status and become our first major hurricane of the year by Tuesday. Edouard is going to stay well out to sea, but should bring us higher waves Wednesday and Thursday.
Meanwhile Hurricane Odile is a monster category 3 hurricane spinning in the Eastern Pacific and headed toward Baja California. This dangerous hurricane could make landfall near Cabo San Lucas, a popular vacation destination, tonight or early Monday. This storm will move northwest and parallel the coast of Baja California over the next few days. Hurricane-force winds and coastal flooding can be expected. Heavy rain will lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Hopefully those folks have evacuated or are prepared for the worst.
Heavy rain moved in earlier this afternoon and dropped a good amount of rain in a short amount of time. The heaviest rain moved across the Southside first and then moved across North Carolina. Check out some of these impressive rain totals!
Tonight’s Rain Totals
Elizabeth City recorded 2.53 inches and Edenton picked up a whopping 4.16 inches so far over a 2-3 hour period tonight. The heaviest rain has pushed south into the Albemarle Sound, so another round of heavy rain is possible for the Outer Banks before midnight. The rest of the region could see a few more light showers, but no more heavy rain is expected.
Cooler and drier air will filter in tonight and drop temperatures into the mid 60s by tomorrow morning with some lower 60s inland. Winds will stay up tonight out of the north and northeast from 10-15mph. We will start off with a lot of clouds tomorrow morning and then become partly cloudy by the afternoon. Sunday will feel like a typical fall day. Highs in the low to mid 70s with LOW humidity. It will feel GREAT! If you have any yard work to do, tomorrow is the day to do it.
Tropical Storm Edouard is still spinning in the central Atlantic. Edouard is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night. This storm will stay out to sea, but should bring us some higher surf Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
We had about 1 hour of sunshine this morning before the clouds rolled in. We could see a few more peaks of sunshine before midday, but this afternoon I would count on clouds and rainfall possible.
Afternoon Showers and Thunder Likely
Today we will see highs near 80 degrees. For college football fans wanting to support your team tonight, I would bet on rain during parts of the game.
Bring the Poncho
Tomorrow, after the passage of the cold front, we will see temperatures in the lower 70s! That will be one of the coolest dry days we have had in awhile. It will feel like fall with a crisp breeze from the north at 10-15mph. Sunday we should be dry with partly cloudy skies.
Highs will remain in the 70s on Monday with mostly cloudy skies. More rain will come again on Tuesday.
Tropical & Surf Update:
Tropical Storm Edouard remains as a strong Tropical Storm in the Central Atlantic. The latest update had this storm with 50mph winds.
Swell Coming Wednesday
This storm will stay offshore of the USA. Surfers; we will see a nice swell from this storm coming in Wednesday-Friday next week. This storm is likely going to make the same track that Hurricane Leslie did in 2012. If you remember that storm gave us 3-4ft waves at its peak. The only thing I am concerned about is a northeast wind developing locally which would prevent clean surf. Stay tuned for more updates.
A cold front is struggling to move south this morning. So far (as of this writing) it has only made it to the Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were moving from the Middle Peninsula over to the Eastern Shore. Some of these were real downpours.
Super Doppler 10
There was also an isolated downpour between Wanchese and Rodanthe N.C. Some of these showers will slowly sink south along with the cold front through the afternoon.
Temperatures in the Midwest (north of the front) are in the 30s, 40s, and 50s. Around here today temperatures will stay in the 70s with just a few 80s south. Winds are turning out of the north this morning, and they will run at about 10-15mph. By this evening the front will settle into northeast North Carolina. This will decrease the rain chances for Friday night football games. It will be cool and cloudy with just a sprinkle or two. Tomorrow the front will stay over northeast North Carolina. A few showers may try to push north of the front. Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80. Some rain will move back north as we get later in the day. This will be aided by a weak mid-level disturbance. So by the late afternoon/early evening we’ll see some scattered showers in the region. This could impact some of the local college football games. The rain chances will increase by tomorrow evening. According to the models, rain is mostly likely Saturday night into early Sunday. A few showers are then again possible for the rest of Sunday. It doesn’t look like much right now, but stay tuned for updates. Especially with that tricky front. Let’s see that makes it stalled-out front # 59 of the year I think. (I have no idea if we’ve really had 59 stalled out fronts. It was just for effect). It will be cooler on Sunday as the front pushes south once again.
Monday looks to dry out, but then some more scattered showers are expected on Tuesday.
In the Atlantic we have two areas that I am tracking. The first one is a namedl system. That is tropical storm Edouard. It is in the eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west/northwest.
Track Of Edouard
The storm will move northwest for a while as a tropical storm. By Tuesday it is likely to become a hurricane. It should begin to move north at that point. It will stay out to sea, and is likely to stay east of Bermuda. It may bring us some waves by late next week, but we’ll see. There is also a weak disturbance near Florida.
That feature is drifting west. It may survive moving over Florida with some heavy rain. If it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, then it could develop into a tropical system. It’s not likely to affect us, but could become a problem for the Gulf Coast. Stay tuned!
The day started off on a good note. We had a gorgeous morning with a little deck of clouds moving through, and the sun peaking out in between.
Tower Cam 10
Conditions looked right for some fog to form, but the clouds swooped in and stopped that from happening. The clouds act like a blanket and can stop the temperatures from dropping to the dew p0int. Luckily the clouds are temporary, and we’ll see lots of sunshine today. However, that same sunshine will help to heat things up this afternoon. Highs will rise to near 90. The average high is 81 degrees for this time of year. Winds will be southwest around the high that sits to our southeast.
The humidity will be high as well, but the breeze should help. By tonight a strong cold front will move into the region. It will form a line of showers and storms that will swipe through between 9pm and 2am (more specific time will depend on location). We may see a few strong storms with some heavy rain and gusty winds. However, this system will be on the move. So it won’t be like the last system. We are looking at a quarter to a half an inch of rain. Perhaps a little more in a few storms.
Tomorrow we are looking at cooler weather. Highs will be in the upper 70s. A few showers may linger during the morning, but it doesn’t look like there will be much in the afternoon (isolated shower). Winds will turn out of the north.
The weekend forecast has become very muddy. Not all in terms of rainfall, but in clarity. How about that for a pun? Ahem…Anyway, the cold front is now expected to stall out just south of the region. Some models (like the NAM and European) bring rain into the region each day. The GFS model keeps the front a little farther south, and doesn’t have as much rain. So until the models come into better agreement, I’ve just put in a chance for some scattered showers each day. Hopefully, the models will close in on a more definite solution by later today. I will have an update tomorrow on that.
Finally there is a cluster of storms over in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that is likely to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next few days. It is moving west, but it is far away. The satellite is fairly impressive, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes an organized system later today.
The weather has been steadily improving in the region, but it isn’t too rosy just yet. When I came into work I ran into a bunch of drizzle and light showers. This continued on until about 7am. The area of low pressure that caused the bad weather has moved offshore, but a moist marine layer has been pushing in from the northeast. As the low continues to push away, high pressure will build in from the northwest.
Today’s Forecast Map
We’ll dry things out and get more sunshine as we go into the midday and the afternoon. Highs will be in the low 80s with a few upper 70s near the shore. The wind is out of the north/northeast. It won’t be as strong as the past 24 hours. It was pretty breezy yesterday afternoon as the low began to depart. With the recent winds and full moon there has been some minor tidal flooding. This was on top of (or really underneath) the flooding from the recent rain. The tide at Sewell’s Point made it up to 4.6′/4.7′ over the last 2 tide cycles. This morning the tide will rise to about 4.4′. That is just below the threshold for minor tidal flooding. So it is more in the nuisance category. After that the tide will drop further.
Tide Forecast (Sewell’s Pt.)
By tomorrow high pressure will shift to the southeast. This will allow for more southerly winds. It will stay close enough to provide for some nice weather.
The southerly winds will boost the temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s. A cold front will then move into the region by tomorrow night. This will create a return of some scattered showers and storms. Unlike the last system, this next one will move through the region. So no flooding is expected. However, it is forecast to stall out to our south. So showers will linger on Saturday. At least we’ll be cool again. Highs in the 70s Friday through Sunday.
I found this article about how the U.S. Golf Association has been trying to find a more efficient lawn. One that can especially handle a warmer climate. Here is the article: Golf courses and climate. There is a lot of input into golf courses across the country. So any increase in efficiency/heat tolerance will have a big impact.
The rain has finally ended for the most part across Hampton Roads, other than a few spotty light showers. There are still a lot of dark clouds on Tower Cam 10, but thankfully no rain!
Tower Cam 10
Thank you to everyone for sending in your rain totals by email, Facebook or Twitter. These totals help give us ground truth. The National Weather Service in Wakefield created the graphic below with the help of your rain totals to show where the heaviest rain fell. There is a legend at the bottom of the graphic explaining what each color means. The heaviest rain fell over parts of Isle of Wight County, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Newport News, Hampton and Virginia Beach. The highest total I have seen was in Smithfield where the report was over 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period. WOW!
Even though the rain has ended, we could still see tidal flooding tonight during high tide at 10:15. Tides have been running higher than normal because of our persistent northeasterly and easterly wind and because of the full moon last night. Water levels at Sewells Point peaked at 4.7 feet earlier this morning. The threshold for minor tidal flooding is at 4.5 feet. Minor tidal flooding will be possible again tonight because water levels are forecast to be right around that threshold. Keep that in mind if you live in a flood prone area. Move your car to higher ground.
Sewells Point Forecast Water Levels
Nuisance tidal flooding is still possible Wednesday and Thursday during high tide as water levels stay elevated, but below the threshold for minor tidal flooding.
Wednesday is looking much drier. We should start off with the clouds in the morning, but then transition to a mix of sun and clouds during the afternoon. A stray coastal shower is possible, but chances are very low.
Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have another update on the tides coming up on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.