Weather

Goodbye Sunshine, Hello Coastal Storm

April 29th, 2015 at 5:40 pm by under Weather

The sun is out and all is quiet for now….so enjoy the last few hours of nice weather, because we are tracking some big changes. These changes come in the form of a developing coastal storm slated to impact us Thursday into Friday. The low still hasn’t developed yet, but should get its act together tonight off the coast of Georgia and Florida. This low will move northeastward from there, staying well offshore, but getting close enough to bring us some rain, wind and tidal flooding over the next 48 hours. There has been an shift in the computer model’s solution this afternoon…a good change for us. Over the past few days, the GFS and EURO models have consistently kept the low offshore, but close enough to bring us some rain and wind. The NAM’s solution has kept the low closer to the coast (farther inland), which would give us more rain and stronger winds. Now the NAM’s solution has the low located more offshore, closer to the solution of the EURO and GFS. This gives us higher confidence that this is going to be a weaker storm for us. We could still see rain, wind and tidal flooding, but this is not going to be a huge storm for us.

Now onto the forecast…the high clouds have already moved into the region and the clouds will continue to thicken up overnight. A few showers will be possible across North Carolina overnight, but most will stay dry with lows in the mid 50s. Scattered showers will move in Thursday afternoon, but the rain will be hit or miss. It is not going to rain all day long, just keep the umbrella with you.

Future Trak at 12 PM Thursday

Future Trak at 12 PM Thursday

When you are not seeing rain tomorrow, expect to see a lot of clouds and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Northeast winds will only be running between 5-15mph tomorrow. Expect winds to really increase late Thursday night into Friday as the low strengthens offshore. Northeast winds should range between 15-25mph inland and 20-30mph along the coast with higher gusts possible during the day on Friday. This is what our Future Trak Wind Speed model has at 12 PM Friday.

Forecast Wind Speeds Friday at 12 PM

Forecast Wind Speeds Friday at 12 PM

As the low continues to move away from us on Friday, we are going to be watching an upper level low pushing into the region from the west. I think this is when we will have the best chance for rain over the next 2 days….Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Rain could be heavy at times, but I don’t think it will amount to much in the rain gauge. Forecast rain totals should range between 0.5-1 inch of rain. Notice how the rain becomes more widespread at 7 AM Friday.

Future Trak at 7 AM Friday

Future Trak at 7 AM Friday

Rain will continue into Friday afternoon and highs will be kept down into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Rain will come to an end by Friday night, but we may see some lingering moisture in the form of cloud cover on Saturday.

*Keep in mind that some of the computer models have this upper level low diving to our south on Friday. If this solution pans out, then North Carolina would see rain and most of Virginia would stay dry on Friday. So a lot can still change at this point.*

With the strong northeasterly winds and an almost full moon, tidal flooding will become a possibility. Nuisance to minor tidal flooding will be possible Friday night during high tide, which is around 8:30 PM. Winds will subside on Saturday, so the water levels should drop below the threshold for tidal flooding at that time.

Forecast Water Levels

Forecast Water Levels

The weekend is looking fantastic! Lots of sunshine both days with highs around 70° on Saturday and mid 70s on Sunday.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Enjoy Today, Rain On The Way!

April 29th, 2015 at 8:34 am by under Weather

The weather pattern has finally shifted.  High pressure has built into the region.  Plus the offshore low that was east of Maine has finally moved out to sea.  So we have lost our cool northerly winds that have been around for the past few days.  We’ll see a pretty nice day, but clouds will be increasing from the south. Highs will mainly be in the 70s.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

A weak area of low pressure has been forming over southern Georgia.  This will be a big player in our weather game over the next 48 hours.  Notice the rain that lies between northern Alabama and South Carolina.  These rain showers will steadily scoot north/northeast.  We may see a few sprinkles in our area by this evening, but it won’t be much.  We’ll increase the rain chances tonight.  Especially after midnight.  Then scattered to occasional showers will continue through tomorrow.  The low will be well to our south, but it will keep throwing moisture into our region. Here is the view from Future Trak at 3pm Thursday:

Future Trak (3pm Thursday)

Future Trak (3pm Thursday)

The rain will continue on and off through Thursday night into Friday.  Some upper level energy will enter the region, and will enhance the low.   The surface low looks to stay offshore, however it will strengthen through Friday.  Also it may retrograde (back up) a bit.  At the same time high pressure will try to build in from the west.  So there will be a decent pressure gradient (difference in value over a given distance).  So the wind will increase out of the northeast through Friday evening.

Future Trak (Friday AM0

Future Trak (Friday AM)

At this time I think we’ll see some gusts to over 30mph near the shore as the gradient briefly increases Friday evening.  The winds will be persistent enough that we may see some nuisance to minor tidal flooding.  This would happen late Friday night or early Saturday morning.   The moon is also full which creates a naturally higher tide.  The good news is that all of this is expected to move out by the weekend.  Then we’ll see clearing skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.  We may see some 80s even by early next week.

In regards to the Thursday/Friday system… The models still haven’t locked into a solution.  They generally disagree on the strength and track.  However, they are in general agreement on the setup.  Also they are suggesting a potential for the low to stretch to the southwest for a bit.  Probably along a cold front.  If that happens, then the onshore winds could increase even more.  So we’ll need to pay close attention to the forecast.  Overall we are looking at about 1-2″ of rain.  However, that also depends on the track.

Stay tuned for updates to this system.  It is still forming, and the computer models will have a better idea of what will happen within the next 12-24 hours.  It will also be in closer range of the higher-resolution computer models by then.

Speaking of offshore systems….I found one interesting article about the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project. That is a program that is working to improve the intensity and track forecasts of tropical systems.  While this is mostly through NOAA, there are other agencies and academic partners involved.  I’ve read a lot of good things about the program in my BAMS journals (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society).  They really did a lot with improving the forecast accuracy of tropical systems over the last few years.  Especially in terms of the forecast path.  Anyway, the recent article talks about how the program is having a lot of its funding cut by the government.  This is sad news.  Here is the article: Funding cut for HFIP.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Quiet And Then Not So Quiet

April 28th, 2015 at 8:41 am by under Weather

In the short-term our weather is pretty groovy.  We started our morning a tad milder than yesterday.  There was a lot of sunshine.  High pressure is building in from the west.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The offshore low is still there off the coast of Massachusetts and Nova Scotia.  We are still getting cool north/northwesterly winds in the region.  In fact we had a few gusts up to 25mph near the shore earlier this morning.  The breeze will be steady out of the north/northwest today.  So that will keep temps a bit cool this afternoon. Especially near the shore.  Highs will be in the mid 60s with a few 70s inland.  The high pressure area will allow for fair skies today.  By tonight the high will sit over us.  Winds will die down.  Temps, however, won’t cool down too much.  Lows will drop to near 50 with 40s inland.  By tomorrow some moisture will run up out of the south. At least in the upper levels.  So clouds will build through the day.  Some models bring in a few showers by the evening.  Others just show clouds.  I think a few sprinkles aren’t out of the question, but rain should hold off.  Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow depending on how fast the clouds build in.

By Thursday an area of low pressure will come up out of the south.  It will be weak at first.  In fact the rain along it looks to be more scattered in our region on Thursday compared to yesterday’s forecast.  Still there is a chance for some rain.

Thursday's Forecast Map

Thursday’s Forecast Map

The breeze will pick up a bit out of the northeast ahead of the system.  By Thursday night the low will nudge offshore.  It will then move offshore and strengthen through Friday.  The rain may be heavy for a while by Friday morning.  I won’t go into rain totals just yet as it depends on the specific track.  Just know that more than an inch is possible.  As the low pushes away, the winds will increase behind it

Friday's Weather

Friday’s Weather

Again, depending on the track, the winds may be out of the northeast for a while.  Rain will taper off late Friday, but the wind will increase.  Then we should dry out on Saturday as the system moves well offshore.  There may be a bit of a breeze and some clouds still on Saturday morning.  The rest of the weekend looks good.  Sunday will see partly cloudy skies and warming temps.

So…temps.  Today we’ll see highs in the mid 60s.  Upper 60s tomorrow to near 70.  Then temps will drop Thursday into Friday.  We’ll see low 60s to near 60.  If the winds are strong enough, then we may even see highs in the upper 50s on Friday.  Saturday we’ll warm up to the upper 60s.  Then we’ll see mid 70s both Sunday and Monday.  I think almost everyone is looking forward to the warmer temperatures at this point.  Crops too.

We are approaching full moon.  So if the winds pick up, then we could see some nuisance or even minor tidal flooding by Friday.  It’s still an early call for that.  So check back with us.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


System Later This Week

April 27th, 2015 at 8:50 am by under Weather

This is going to be a quick blog this morning.  (Gasp!).   Meteorologist Tiffany Savona did an excellent job of talking about the short-term forecast in last night’s blog.

The only thing I want to add is this:  The computer models are showing an area of low pressure over our region later this week.  It has the potential to have some impacts on our weather.  It could create some thunderstorms and maybe even severe weather if it tracks a little farther north and pulls up some heat and humidity.  With its current track this may already be an issue for coastal North Carolina.  Also as it moves away it could create some very gusty winds.  For now the winds look to be mostly out of the northwest.  But if the storm changes track, then it’s possible to see more of a northeast wind.  This could lead to some minor tidal flooding.  Heavy rain will also be possible.   This is still up in the air, but it’s something that I’ll be focusing on tomorrow and the next couple of days.  It is still early after all.  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Chilly Start To The Week!

April 26th, 2015 at 10:45 pm by under Weather

The rain is gone! The clouds have cleared out…at least for the most part. That means we are in for a chilly night tonight! Lows will drop into the mid 40s on average with some upper 30s possible inland. Patchy fog may develop overnight. Make sure you grab the jacket or give the kids the jacket in the morning.

Monday AM Forecast Lows

Monday AM Forecast Lows

Monday will be a little bit warmer than today, but we are still going to stay unseasonably cool most of the week. Highs on Monday will reach the mid 60s, which is still pleasant, but cooler than the average high of 71°. The reason for the cooler weather is because of a large dip in the jet stream over New England and the Mid-Atlantic. A surface low off the coast of Canada and an upper level low spinning overhead will keep winds out of the north over the next few days. This will reinforce the cooler air mass in place.

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

With a mid level disturbance pivoting through the region, we can’t rule out the chance for an isolated shower developing Monday afternoon, although chances are very low. Notice how our Future Trak model doesn’t have much rain on the map, so I don’t think you will need the umbrella tomorrow.

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Technically we will be unseasonably cool all week long, but highs in the 60s are still not that bad. :)

Forecast Highs This Week

Forecast Highs This Week

Have a great week everyone!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

Highs will remain


Perfect Movie Night!

April 25th, 2015 at 8:25 pm by under Weather

It has been a wet, dreary and chilly Saturday across Hampton Roads. High temperatures only maxed out in the low to mid 50s! Average high this time of year is 70°! Unfortunately there were lots of outdoor events going on today. The Tour de Cure and the Suffolk Wine Fest were some of the more popular ones. The Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in Richmond was postponed due to the rain. The race is scheduled to start at 1 PM Sunday. The rain should be done by that time in Richmond, so the weather shouldn’t be a problem for the race tomorrow.

It is going to be a rainy and chilly night across the region as the rain continues and temperatures hover in the 40s. If you get wet, it will feel even colder than that! Sounds like a perfect movie night to me! :) The rain should taper off shortly after midnight, so we should see a break in the activity overnight. But that doesn’t mean we are done with the rain yet!

Future Trak at Midnight

Future Trak at Midnight

A stationary front is draped across North Carolina. We are watching an area of low pressure that is producing rain across Kentucky, Indiana and Illinois. That rain is headed in our direction as the low is forecast to ride along the front to our south.

Second Round of Rain Arrives Sunday Morning

Second Round of Rain Arrives Sunday Morning

So don’t be fooled if you wake up around 5-6 AM and it is just cloudy outside. Rain will push in from west to east anytime after 6 AM. Make sure you have those jackets and the umbrellas before heading out to those church services. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s tomorrow morning.

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

The area of low pressure will move away from us tomorrow afternoon, so rain will be ending from west to east. Most locations will be drying out by Noon, but some coastal areas could see a few showers linger past 12 PM. The clouds will stick around tomorrow afternoon with highs only in the mid to upper 50s. Even though it has been raining most of the day, we haven’t seen too much rain accumulate in the rain gauges. Most areas have picked up between 0.25″-0.5″ of rain with some isolated higher totals. I think we could see another 0.25″-0.5″ before the rain ends tomorrow afternoon.

Rain Totals So Far

Rain Totals So Far

If you have any outdoor plans scheduled for tomorrow, I would try to push them off until tomorrow afternoon since it will be raining in the morning. Much drier weather is in the forecast next week! Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Bad Timing

April 25th, 2015 at 8:02 am by under Weather

From time to time you’ll hear me say, “it could always be worse”!  This is one of those times.  Even though it’s going to be a damp, dreary, and cool weekend, at least we don’t have to deal with an severe storms or snow!

That’s right.  Snow!

Parts of New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts have seen some snowflakes flying over the past couple of days!

I digress..

We will be tracking dry conditions through the morning hours, so if you have any outdoor activities planned, I would try to limit them between now and 3 PM.  If you’re going to be participating in or watching the Tour de Cure in Suffolk, make sure you have warm layers since it will be cool from start to finish!

Tour de Cure - Today

Tour de Cure – Today

Best of luck to all of the cyclists!  Be sure to say HI to our own Nicole Livas, Jen Lewis, and Ty Lorenzo, the Face of Fox 43!

By Noon, we’ll be tracking mostly cloudy skies across Hampton Roads and North Carolina.  Because of the clouds, it’s going to be cool this afternoon with highs only ranging from the mid to upper-50s.  At least we won’t have much wind out there!

Future Trak - 12 PM

Future Trak – 12 PM

Highs Today

Highs Today

These temperatures will occur around 1-2 PM.  I expect the rain will move in by 3 PM and once the rain starts, that will cause temperatures to drop a few degrees.  (The wet weather will move from west to east, so once the rain starts in Richmond and Franklin, you’ll get fair warning when it’ll be in our neck of the woods!)  By 5 PM, we’ll have light, steady rain with the mercury hovering in the low-50s.  Feel free to download our Super Doppler 10 Weather App so you can have the radar at hand anytime you need it!

Future Trak - 5 PM

Future Trak – 5 PM

For the most part, the rain will be light, but I can’t rule out some pockets of moderate to heavy rain at times.  We’ll leave thunderstorms out of the forecast!

By the way, if you’re heading to the Toyota Owners 400 in Richmond, bring a warm jacket and umbrella!

NASCAR Forecast - Saturday

NASCAR Forecast – Saturday

Expect periods of on and off rain from this evening through Sunday morning.

Future Trak - 7 AM Sunday

Future Trak – 7 AM Sunday

We’ll be tracking scattered showers through the first half of your Sunday.  There may be a lingering shower or two tomorrow afternoon, but I’m optimistic things will dry up!  One thing is for sure – we won’t be able to shake the clouds, so once again, it’s going to be cool with highs only in the upper-50s.

Of course, conditions will be a lot nicer for the start of your work week!  Expect more sunshine Monday and Tuesday with temperatures back in the mid to upper-60s!

- Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Race Cars and Cool Air Stuck in PARK

April 24th, 2015 at 5:59 pm by under Weather

It was a little bit on the cool side today, but hey, at least we had plenty of sunshine!

We’ll put El Sol in our rear view mirror tomorrow..  On the horizon?  Rain and cool temperatures.

Okay Dad, you can turn this car around and drive right back to blue skies..

So here’s the deal – a storm system will approach from the Midwest.  Initially, we’ll start with sunshine mixed in with some high, thin clouds Saturday morning.  The first half of your Saturday will be dry, so if you have any outdoor activities planned, I would try and limit them to the morning hours.

Future Trak - 7 AM

Future Trak – 7 AM

If you’re heading to Tour De Cure tomorrow, cyclist or spectator, make sure you dress warmly since temperatures will start in the 40s and only warm into the upper-50s.

Tour De Cure - Saturday

Tour De Cure – Saturday

The 100-mile race starts at 7 AM and temperatures will only be in the mid to upper-40s in Suffolk.  By the time the 10-mile race starts, the mercury will warm (and I use that term loosely) into the upper-50s.  Our own Nicole Livas, Jen Lewis, and the Face of Fox, Ty Lorenzo will be there!

Clouds will quickly fill in through the morning.  By Noon, we’ll be under mostly cloudy skies, but it’ll still be dry!

Future Trak - 12 PM

Future Trak – 12 PM

The rain will spread from west to east, so once you see rain popping up in Richmond and Rocky Mount, you get fair warning that it’s heading towards Hampton Roads next!  The rain will likely start around or just after 3 PM.  Be sure to download our Super Doppler 10 Weather App so you can have the radar at hand anytime you need it!

Future Trak - 5 PM

Future Trak – 5 PM

Our Future Trak forecast shows steady light rain by 5 PM in Hampton Roads and North Carolina.  For the most part, the rain will be light, but I can’t rule out some pockets of moderate to heavy rain at times.  I don’t anticipate and thunderstorms.  In addition to the rain, temperatures will be way cool this weekend!  Highs will leave a lot to be desired..only ranging from the mid-50s to low-60s.  (Low-60s more likely in Chesapeake, Suffolk, Franklin and points south.)

Well….this rain is bad news for anyone that had tickets to the Toyota Owners 400 in Richmond.  It’s not only going to be wet, it’s going to be cool with temperatures in the mid-50s.

Toyota Owners 400

Toyota Owners 400

So 3 things to remember:
1. You’ll need a jacket all weekend.
2. Keep an umbrella handy.
3. I’m just the messenger.

- Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


So THIS is beach weekend???

April 24th, 2015 at 8:40 am by under Weather

It’s too bad that we can’t use a crystal ball to look into the FAR future to see the weather.  Lots of planning goes into these big events in Hampton Roads.  There are several outdoor events this weekend which will be directly impacted by the weather.  Beach Weekend, the Tour De Cure, 2 March of Dimes walks, a wine festival in Suffolk, and the NASCAR race in Richmond.  So what is going to happen?  ?  ?     Oh right I have to answer.  I’m the blogger.   Uh well  uh… Let me show you some things.  First off this is the satellite/radar from this morning:

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Notice that the area of low pressure in the northeast states is still causing snow showers.  Yikes!  That’s 2 days in a row in late April.  Meanwhile high pressure is building into our region nicely.  This is allowing for lots of sunshine to spread across the area.  With the clear skies, light winds, and dry air we started our day rather cold this morning.  We had some mid 30s in Wakefield.  Upper 30s in Franklin and Gloucsester.  Lots of 40s elsewhere.  The sun is starting to warm things up (a bit).  Today the winds will be out of the north/northwest due to the flow between the high and the low.  The high will keep us dry.  Temps will rise to the low 60s this afternoon.  We’ll stay dry tonight with lows mainly in the 40s.  Then tomorrow things will change.  A mass of warm air will edge towards Hampton Roads.  Don’t get too excited though.  At the surface this air mass will put the brakes on before it gets here.  A warm front will basically become stationary to our south.

Tomorrow's Weather Map

Tomorrow’s Weather Map

However, with the push of warmth and moisture in the upper levels over the cool airmass at the surface (overrunning) , there will be some rain moving in.  It will be dry at the surface.  So some of the rain may not reach the ground at first, but eventually we will moisten up.  Here is what Future Trak shows for Saturday afternoon:

Future Trak (3pm Saturday)

Future Trak (3pm Saturday)

So the first half of Saturday will be dry, but some showers will try to move in sometime between 3pm and 7pm.  After that rain is likely through Sunday morning.  Through Sunday a weak area of low pressure will form along the front and will move east through the area.  This will let the rain continue until at least the midday hours.  It’s possible that the rain could linger longer, but the trend is for a drier Sunday afternoon.  Prior forecasts had the low more to our south.  Lately though, the models have brought the low closer to the region.  So that’s whey the forecast has gotten wetter.  It’s possible that the low could kick out sooner on Sunday.  Then we will be drier.  Stay tuned for updates if you do have outdoor plans.   I’ve got a birthday party with 10 kids.  So I am not immune.

We’ll warm up slightly next week, but highs will still mainly be in the 60s.  The next chance for rain moves later next week.  Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cool Air In The Long Term

April 23rd, 2015 at 8:47 am by under Weather

We are in for a good stretch of cooler temperatures.  Yesterday was the last warm day for a while.  We were in the upper 70s to near 80.  Norfolk International Airport hit 77 degrees.  Then the cold front came through in the evening and caused some spotty showers.   Now the front is to our south.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Cooler air is pushing into the region.   I’d say drier air is too, but we were actually pretty dry yesterday.  That’s why most of the rain fell apart in our region.

It wasn’t too chilly this morning, but highs today will only be cooler.  They’ll top off in the mid 60s.  Winds will be out of the north at 10-15mph and could blow at 20mph near the shore at times.  We will be dry today with lots of sunshine.   Notice that there are snow showers to our north.  Whoa!  There has been a lot of cold air in the north-central U.S. recently.   Now it is moving east.  In fact tonight some of our local temperatures will drop to the upper 30s in some of our inland locations.

Tonight's Forecast Lows

Tonight’s Forecast Lows

Along with the colder air, there has also been some some heat in the deep south.  Yesterday this clash of the air-masses caused a lot of stormy weather in the middle part of the country.

yesterday Reports Graphic

NOAA SPC storm reports

Our weather pattern is going to change this week.  The high will stay to our northwest, and the low will drift around eastern Canada.  This will let the cool air continue to pour into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

Upcoming Weather Pattern

Upcoming Weather Pattern

For us this means that highs will be in the 60s and lows will mostly be in the 40s for the next few days.  I’m still looking at a weak low to form to our south this weekend.  The models still show this bringing scattered showers to our region late Saturday (probably in the evening) into Sunday morning.  I’m hoping the models change their tune.  It is a weak low after all.  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler