Weather

Ready….Set…..Wait…Waiiiitt.

September 26th, 2014 at 8:17 am by under Weather

Like Runners at a starting line, folks are lined up waiting for some sunshine.  They are hungry (for the sun), and they are ready to dry out.  This morning was well before start time.  We had lots of clouds and pockets of drizzle.  It wasn’t windy, but there was a breeze out of the north.  The area of low pressure that caused all the rain is long gone.  However, we are still on the edge of some moisture and clouds.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High pressure will gradually try to build in from the west today.  We’ll gradually try to clear up through the day.  So my race metaphor may be a little misleading.  It won’t clear up all at once.  Still… we will improve by later this afternoon/evening.  The wind will be out of the north at 10-15mph.  It’s tough to clear out on a north wind during the cool season, but I’d say we aren’t fully into cool season yet.  Plus some drier air to the north should filter in today as well.  Therefore I’m optimistic.  Cautiously optimistic.  Highs will be in the mid 70s.  We’ll clear out tonight for sure with just a few clouds.  Lows will be in the 60s.

We are still looking good this weekend. High pressure will sit over the region. This will give us fair skies and highs in the 70s.  Should be great for all the outdoor events.  We’ll see a return of some rain early next week.

Now you may have heard about this story recently.  Radars don’t just detect rain and snow.  Sometimes wildlife can be picked up on radar.  Bugs and birds are often detected.  Here was one recent episode from Missouri: Butterflies on radar.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


The Moisture Won’t Leave

September 25th, 2014 at 8:33 am by under Weather

The rain picked up yesterday.  It was a widespread/soaking rain that lasted for a long time.  The cause was an area of low pressure that was wrapped in a lot of humidity.  It dropped a solid 1-2″ of rain through the region. Some cities even saw about 2.5″ of rain.

24  Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

My weather watcher Mike in Whaleyville had 2.9″ of rain.  Pam in Gloucester had 1.5″.  We had a little more rain than forecast in the inland locations as the low expanded quite a bit, and was also a little farther west than anticipated.  The rain started to break up by yesterday evening.  However, the clouds and moisture are sticking around.  This moisture is in a fairly isolated area when you look at things region-by-region.

Dew Points

Dew Points

The moisture will hang around today.  Also, even though the low is to our north, there is a stationary front stretching through our area.

Stationary Front

Stationary Front

So we will have a few showers today, but it won’t be like yesterday.  The chance for rain is only 20%.  A little higher over the Outer Banks.  High pressure is trying to build in from the west, but it has put on the brakes and is stalling out.  We’ll have a lot of clouds, but the winds are not as bad.  Yesterday we had some gusts to 35mph.  Today we’ll see a northwest wind at 10mph.  10-15mph on the Eastern Shore.

The spotty showers and sprinkles will continue into tonight and even a little early tomorrow.  However, we’ll clear up nicely late Friday, and the good weather will continue into the weekend.

In national news…I found this neat article about cicadas.  Looks like we may see more of them in the future.  Cicadas and climate.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Wednesday Evening Update

September 24th, 2014 at 5:10 pm by under Weather

It has been a rainy, nasty and windy day across Hampton Roads. Here is the view outside of Tower Cam 10.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

So far we have seen between 1-3 inches of rain depending on where you live.

24-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

More rain is likely tonight as the area of low pressure moves inland across North Carolina and Virginia. Rain should taper off after midnight from south to north as the low moves out over the ocean and pushes away from us. Here is our Future Trak computer model at 10 PM tonight.

Future Trak at 10 PM Tonight

Future Trak at 10 PM Tonight

Some drier air will try to push into some areas tomorrow, although we could still see a few showers on Thursday. Best chances for rain will be across the Eastern Shore before sunrise and across North Carolina during the late afternoon/evening.

Future Trak at 7 AM Thursday

Future Trak at 7 AM Thursday

Winds will stay up tonight and range between 15-25mph. We could see another round of nuisance tidal flooding during high tide tonight around 10 PM. Water levels are forecast to reach around 4 feet tonight. If you saw any nuisance tidal flooding this morning, then you will probably see additional tidal flooding again tonight. The weekend is looking great!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Coastal Low Moving Through

September 24th, 2014 at 7:25 am by under Weather

The area of low pressure is moving into the region.  It’s not a strong system, but it does have quite a bit of moisture to it.  The rain has already been pushing into the region this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Some of this rain was caused by overrunning as the warm/moist air moved over the cooler/drier airmass that has been in place in the region.  However as we go through the later morning the rain will be primarily from the low.  One interesting thing about this system is that if it weren’t for an interaction with a high to the north, then our winds actually wouldn’t be too bad.  We’ve seen this happen many times.

Today's Forecast Map

Today’s Forecast Map

The winds will be out of the northeast at 15-25mph with gusts up to 35mph.  Especially near the shore.  Between that and the rain today the temperatures will be stuck in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Rain will be pretty widespread by the late morning and midday hours.  It will be heavy at times.

Future Trak (Noon Today)

Future Trak (Noon Today)

The trend has been earlier and earlier with everything.  So since the rain has started earlier, it will also taper off sooner.  By 5pm we’ll only see a 40% chance for rain.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

Then during the overnight the low will push north, and the rain will push out.  Tomorrow the weak low will move north and the high will push more west.  We’ll still see lots of clouds and perhaps a stray shower, but the forecast has dried up significantly.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

 

The wind will be out of the northwest, but not as strong.  It will run at about 10-15mph.  We’ll see nice weather then going into the weekend.

Rain totals were tricky today.  I saw the models yesterday from our other meteorologists and it looked like we were going to get 3-4″.  This morning the models have definitely backed off.  I’ve put together a map of what I think is going to fall in the next 24 hours.  Here it is:

Rain Totals Forecast

Rain Totals Forecast

That is based off of several different sources including our Future Trak model, the National Weather Service, and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).  Even the WPC backed off the rain a bit since yesterday.  Regardless it will be wet and windy.

Now some of the rain will fall during high tide today.  That may be a problem.  Luckily the tide itself won’t be too bad.  The moon is in the new moon phase.  So the tide is up a bit anyway.  With the northeast wind added to it, we are looking at a 1 – 1.5 ft rise in water levels.  So Sewell’s Point is forecast to get up to a touch above 4 ft.  Remember minor tidal flooding starts at 4.5 ft.
Here is the tide forecast for that location:

Tide Forecast (Sewell's Point)

Tide Forecast (Sewell’s Point)

The tide will rise between 9-11am.  If the rain gets heavy during that time, then it just won’t drain well.  This could create some street flooding in the tidal-prone areas.  Luckily this will be after most of the morning commute.  The evening commute will be closer to low tide. So that shouldn’t be an issue. Plus, the rain will taper off by then.

So overall we will be fine today.  There will be a few problem areas, but it could be much worse.  I’m already looking forward to the nice weekend.  The Neptune Festival is happening in Virginia Beach.  Gotta have good weather for the sand sculpture contest.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Rainy and Windy Wednesday

September 23rd, 2014 at 6:14 pm by under Weather

Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler wrote a long blog this morning about our developing coastal storm over the next 24 hours. Since he wrote that blog, there have been a few big changes to the forecast. The computer models are now bringing in the rain earlier. Rain should push into North Carolina tonight and Virginia early tomorrow morning. A few showers are trying to push into North Carolina this evening, but the rain is having a hard time reaching the ground because of the dry air in place. We have plenty of moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, but we are lacking surface moisture. The atmosphere should moisten up by tomorrow morning. That is when dew point readings will be in the 60s. Right now, dew point readings are in the 50s. So a few showers are possible overnight, but the widespread rain won’t move in until tomorrow.

Future Trak at 7 AM Weds

Future Trak at 7 AM Wednesday

The heaviest rain looks to fall tomorrow afternoon and then gradually taper off tomorrow night.

Future Trak at 12 PM

Future Trak at 12 PM Wednesday

Rain totals should range between 2-3 inches on average over the next 24-36 hours. There is a possibility we could see isolated higher totals along the coast.

Here are Wednesday’s rain chances. Luckily for us, this is not going to be a long lasting event. So we are not looking at major flooding, although we could see some street flooding and tidal flooding during times of high tide.

Wednesday Rain Chances

Wednesday Rain Chances

Along with the rain, the wind will really ramp up tomorrow. Wind speeds will range from 20-30mph with gusts up to 35mph at times.

Future Trak Wind Speeds

Future Trak Wind Speeds on Wednesday

With the strong northeast winds and a new moon tomorrow night, tides will be running higher than normal. Nuisance to minor tidal flooding will be possible during high tide tomorrow, especially in the morning around 10 AM. This is when water levels will be the highest, hovering near the minor tidal flooding threshold. If heavy rain is falling at this time, then the rain will not be able to drain properly in coastal areas, which could lead to bigger problems. Our computer model above shows that heavy rain could be falling during high tide, so make sure you move your car to higher ground if you experience tidal flooding often.

Sewells Point Tides

Sewells Point Tides

Thursday is looking much drier now. We may see a few showers before sunrise, but then drier weather is expected for the rest of the day. We will still see a lot of clouds on Thursday and highs will be in the mid 70s. Weekend is looking great right now.

*You can always track the rain on Super Doppler 10 Radar
*Latest forecast discussion can be found on wavy.com
* “Like” our WAVY TV 10 Facebook page and follow WAVY_Weather on Twitter for frequent updates

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have an updated forecast on WAVY News 10 at 11 and Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will be tracking the rain for you on WAVY News 10 Today starting at 4:30 AM Wednesday.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 


Coastal Low To Develop

September 23rd, 2014 at 8:48 am by under Weather

It’s the first day of Fall.  Many folks will want to think thoughts of leaves turning color, campfires, hot apple cider…take your pick.  However, we’ll have to hold off on those thoughts for a bit, and instead think about this coastal low that is forecast to develop over the next 24-36 hours. Let’s start with today.  The clouds increased overnight.  The clouds are increasing from the warm/moist air in the mid levels riding over the cooler/dry airmass at the surface.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There was some rain to our south, but as it hit the dry air it all disappeared. The dew points at the surface are in the 40s solid.  That is bone-dry.

Dew Points

Dew Points

The surface winds were out of the northeast.  So the higher dew points around Wilmington will not push back north today.  In fact…the breeze was pretty strong this morning.  We even had a few gusts to 25mph near the shore.  What’s happening is that along with the drier air pushing in from the north, there is also an area of high pressure to the north.

Today's Weather Map

Today’s Weather Map

Meanwhile a stationary front and area of low pressure is developing to our south.  Between the high and low there is a pressure gradient which leads to a funneling effect.  I’m hoping the dry weather at the surface undercuts the clouds and breaks them up a bit by later this morning.  If that happens then temperatures will rise to near 70.  If the clouds stay thick, then we’ll see highs in the mid-upper 60s.  Tonight the low will migrate north along the coast.  I’m not calling it a nor’easter because for most of its life it will be more of a trough (windshift line) as opposed to a bona-fide closed off low.  Also the system is expected to weaken as it begins to move out of area.  Typically a nor’easter revs up at that time.  Having said that… The low is expected to bring us some rain.  We may see a few spotty showers tomorrow between 8am and 2pm. Then the rain will pick up.  By the early evening the low and the rain will be right on top of our area.  Here is what Future Trak shows for 8pm on Wednesday:

Future Trak (8pm Wed)

Future Trak (8pm Wed)

Now the wind will be strong at that time.  Not just because the weak low will be close by, but also because the high to the north won’t move much.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The wind will run out of the northeast at 15-20mph with gusts up to 25mph near the shore.  There may even be a few gusts to 30mph at the beaches.  By early Thursday morning the low will move north and is actually forecast to weaken.  The rain will taper off.  It will be much more scattered on Thursday.  It may even dry up depending on which model you believe.  Then we’ll have some nice weather going into next weekend.

The rain is forecast to add up.  Our model shows about 0.75″ up to 2 inches along the coast:

Rainfall Totals Forecast

Rainfall Totals Forecast

I’m calling for 1-2″ along the coast with a half inch to an inch inland.  This could change, so stay tuned for updates.

Tides will run about 1 – 1.5 ft above normal.  This will create some nuisance to minor tidal flooding.  The problem will be if the higher water rise happens when the heavy rain comes in.  Especially Wednesday night.  We’ve had that happen a lot lately, and it has caused some problems.  The exact timing of the low moving through is apt to change.  Here is the latest tide forecast from the National Weather Service: Tide Forecast.

So we’ll see how this system plays out.  Hopefully, it’s not a warmup for the rest of the Fall.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Fall Begins…Cue The Music

September 22nd, 2014 at 8:47 am by under Weather

The Autumnal Equinox begins at 10:29pm EDT tonight.  Yep, that’s right.  It’s at night.  It is an astronomical event when the plane of Earth’s Equator passes the center of the Sun.  Course this will happen somewhere else on the planet since it will be nighttime here.  Here’s a lot more information on the subject: Autumnal Equinox.  So tomorrow is the first full day of Fall.  Interestingly this year will see cooler temperatures just in time for the event.  Usually we have a weird warmup right as this day rolls around.  Not this year.

A cold front has moved through the region as of this morning.  There were only a few sprinkles with the front.  We’ll see drying and cooling weather today as the front pushes south.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Winds will be north/northwest at about 8-12mph.  This will push in dew points in the low 50s this afternoon.  So it will feel great out there with highs in the mid-upper 70s and fair skies.  Tonight we will really notice the coolness.  With mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dry air we will drop our temperatures to the low/mid 50s.  There will be some upper 50s near the shore.  It will be time to open up the windows (if it is safe to do so in your neighborhood).

Forecast Lows

Forecast Lows

We might even see a few 40s inland and north.   Wow!  Tomorrow we’ll have some very nice weather.  Skies will be partly sunny.  After the cool/chilly start we’ll see mild highs in the low 70s.  There may be a few upper 60s north of the metro.  We’ll warm up just a bit Wednesday into Thursday.  A weak coastal system will try to bring us some rain from Wednesday night into Thursday.  However, it looks to push out by Friday.

All is quiet in the tropics for now.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Hello Fall!

September 21st, 2014 at 8:36 pm by under Weather

Fall officially begins at 10:29 PM Monday night, so the first FULL day of fall is on Tuesday. Tomorrow is also known as the autumnal equinox, which is when the sun’s direct rays shine over Earth’s equator.  Our days will be getting shorter as we approach the start of winter. Between tomorrow (start of Fall) and December 21 (start of winter), we are going to lose a total of 2 hours and 31 minutes of daylight.

Shorter Days Coming

Shorter Days Coming

I am tracking a cold front that will move in tomorrow morning, so it should feel like fall as we start off the fall season.

Cold Front Moving East

Cold Front Moving East

Notice there are a few showers developing out ahead of this front. We are not expecting much in the way of rain as this front moves through Hampton Roads. We may see an isolated shower develop tonight/early Monday, but that’s about it. Most of the energy is going to lag behind the front and our moisture levels aren’t too impressive. Cold front will switch our winds out of the north and northeast at 10-15mph tomorrow. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front. Here are the forecast dew points (surface moisture) on Monday. Notice that the dew point temperatures drop once the front moves into Hampton Roads. This is the best part of the forecast because humidity levels will be dropping tomorrow and will stay low Tuesday and part of Wednesday. It may be muggy outside when you are waking up Monday morning, but by Monday afternoon, it’s going to feel great!

Forecast Dew Points

Forecast Dew Points

Highs on Tuesday (first FULL day of fall) will only be around 70° with low humidity. Sounds like a perfect fall day to me! :)
High pressure will build into the region and our persistent northeast flow will stick around for the rest of the week. Tides are going to be running a little bit higher over the next few days, especially on Wednesday, when there is a new moon. Expect nuisance tidal flooding during times of high tide on Wednesday (9:51 AM, 10:06 PM).

The extended forecast is a little bit more complicated. The European model develops a wave of low pressure along the front offshore and brings some of that moisture into Virginia and North Carolina late Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. The GFS model keeps the rain to our south. Right now, I have Wednesday through Friday dry at this time. But we may need to put rain chances in the forecast if the GFS model trends more toward the European model. Stay tuned! Regardless of what happens, temperatures will be running below average for the rest of the week. Average high is 78° this time of year. Have a great Monday!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Isolated Showers Possible Today

September 20th, 2014 at 8:21 am by under Weather

A coastal storm is developing to our south right now. This storm system is not going to be strong enough to cause any major problems this weekend, however, we may see isolated showers later today and tomorrow.

Radar Snapshot at 8am

Radar Snapshot at 8am

The isolated showers are expected to move in to our area after the noon hour today. Sprinkles/Light Rain is what I would expect. This storm system won’t have the energy to produce flooding or thunderstorms. Wind speeds will be Easterly today at 10-20mph.

Future Trak @ 3pm

Future Trak @ 3pm

Tonight we will see mostly cloudy skies, isolated showers are still possible. Tomorrow, the majority of the rain will be over the Outer Banks. Temperatures should still be near 80 tomorrow with westerly winds.

Surf Update:

Sunday’s surf should be pretty fun in the afternoon as this NE swell will still be at its peak. Waves will be 3-4ft.  Rip Current Threats will remain high.

Beach Forecast

Beach Forecast

We should see more offshore winds tomorrow afternoon/evening which should clean up the surf.

Have a great weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


The Final Weekend Of Summer Coming Up

September 19th, 2014 at 8:59 am by under Weather

That’s right, the fall equinox is on Tuesday next week. So how are we looking this weekend? We will see a mix of cloudy cover and sunshine today.

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

Since we are stuck in this pattern again today, temperatures are going to be in the 70s this afternoon. A sprinkle or light shower may popup today with the clouds around noon.

Tomorrow we could also see rain:

Future Trak Saturday at 10am

Future Trak Saturday at 10am

Isolated showers will move inland around 10am tomorrow. Mostly cloudy skies are also expected. If you are going to the NAS airshow, keep in mind that the rain will be light and scattered, so the event should still be fun and mostly dry. Showers are possible into the afternoon. Highs should be in the 80s this weekend.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson