The area of low pressure is moving into the region. It’s not a strong system, but it does have quite a bit of moisture to it. The rain has already been pushing into the region this morning.
Some of this rain was caused by overrunning as the warm/moist air moved over the cooler/drier airmass that has been in place in the region. However as we go through the later morning the rain will be primarily from the low. One interesting thing about this system is that if it weren’t for an interaction with a high to the north, then our winds actually wouldn’t be too bad. We’ve seen this happen many times.
Today’s Forecast Map
The winds will be out of the northeast at 15-25mph with gusts up to 35mph. Especially near the shore. Between that and the rain today the temperatures will be stuck in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain will be pretty widespread by the late morning and midday hours. It will be heavy at times.
Future Trak (Noon Today)
The trend has been earlier and earlier with everything. So since the rain has started earlier, it will also taper off sooner. By 5pm we’ll only see a 40% chance for rain.
Future Trak (5pm)
Then during the overnight the low will push north, and the rain will push out. Tomorrow the weak low will move north and the high will push more west. We’ll still see lots of clouds and perhaps a stray shower, but the forecast has dried up significantly.
The wind will be out of the northwest, but not as strong. It will run at about 10-15mph. We’ll see nice weather then going into the weekend.
Rain totals were tricky today. I saw the models yesterday from our other meteorologists and it looked like we were going to get 3-4″. This morning the models have definitely backed off. I’ve put together a map of what I think is going to fall in the next 24 hours. Here it is:
Rain Totals Forecast
That is based off of several different sources including our Future Trak model, the National Weather Service, and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC). Even the WPC backed off the rain a bit since yesterday. Regardless it will be wet and windy.
Now some of the rain will fall during high tide today. That may be a problem. Luckily the tide itself won’t be too bad. The moon is in the new moon phase. So the tide is up a bit anyway. With the northeast wind added to it, we are looking at a 1 – 1.5 ft rise in water levels. So Sewell’s Point is forecast to get up to a touch above 4 ft. Remember minor tidal flooding starts at 4.5 ft.
Here is the tide forecast for that location:
Tide Forecast (Sewell’s Point)
The tide will rise between 9-11am. If the rain gets heavy during that time, then it just won’t drain well. This could create some street flooding in the tidal-prone areas. Luckily this will be after most of the morning commute. The evening commute will be closer to low tide. So that shouldn’t be an issue. Plus, the rain will taper off by then.
So overall we will be fine today. There will be a few problem areas, but it could be much worse. I’m already looking forward to the nice weekend. The Neptune Festival is happening in Virginia Beach. Gotta have good weather for the sand sculpture contest.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler