Weather

Another Mess In March

March 17th, 2014 at 7:49 am by under Weather

Here we go again!  Did we ever stop?  It’s another lovely wintry mix in the region.  Yes…that was sarcasm.   I mentioned in a blog weeks ago, that we would have a chance for snow through at least March.   I wouldn’t be surprised to see this keep up through April.  Anyway, here’s what’s happening with the current system.  We have had snow and sleet falling to the north of Hampton Roads through the overnight.  We had mostly rain with some sleet in the metro area.  It has been trying to change over to some snow this morning in the metro, but surface temperatures are above freezing.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

An offshore low was scooting northeast along a stationary front.  As the moisture pushed up from the south it hit some colder air over northern Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Heavy snow was falling from D.C. to New York.

As we go through the day, the precipitation will taper off for a while.  This is expected from the late morning through the early afternoon.

Future Trak (Noon)

Future Trak (Noon)

By the mid-afternoon another round of moisture will push into the region.  This will be along an upper level pocket of energy.  So another mix of rain, sleet, and snow (blue) will enter the viewing area:

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

This second round will push through by about 6-7pm, then precipitation will become widely scattered again except for coastal North Carolina .  Forecast snow totals will be highest on the Northern Neck.  Jan in Reedville had about an inch from last night.  Factoring in what we’ve already had, and another inch or so here’s what the snowfall forecast is for today.

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

Highs today will only be in the upper 30s.  Winds will be northeast at 15-25mph with a few gusts up to 45mph near the shore.  The winds will lead to some nuisance to minor tidal flooding between 9:30 and 11:30am.  High tide is at 10:30am this morning.

Tide Forecast

Tide Forecast

By tonight the precipitation will taper off even more.  We should hold on to quite a bit of clouds.  This should stop the temperatures from falling too much.  So lows will be in the low/mid 30s.  Northeast winds will still gust up to 30mph, but they won’t be as strong as today.  We’ll see some scattered rain showers with a bit of sleet mixing in at times.  Tomorrow another offshore low will form, but farther away than today’s system.  This will give us another chance for rain showers.  The good news is that we are expected to warm up a bit.   Highs will be in the 40s.  We’ll still have northeast winds, but not as strong as today.

We could see a few more rain showers between Wednesday and Thursday.  I can’t rule out a couple of sleet pellets in the mornings.  At least high temperatures will warm up into the 50s for both of those days.  We’ll be warm going into next weekend, but we’ll come out of the weekend with another shot of cold air.  I’m over it as many of you have also indicated.  In like a Lion, Out like a Lamb?  I think we’re more like in like penguin, and out like a laughing hyena.  The latter due to this weather being a joke.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Definitely A Moving Target!

March 16th, 2014 at 11:00 pm by under Weather

Just to add a little to what Tiffany posted earlier. I’ve taken some screen shots of “accumulated snowfall” from two different models. I am posting from home, so I don’t have access to the better illustration of the Future Trak models. Nevertheless, these are certainly some of the other models that we look at on a daily basis. First, the GFS:Screen Shot 2014-03-16 at 10.23.27 PMScreen Shot 2014-03-16 at 10.23.44 PMAnd secondly, the NAM:

Screen Shot 2014-03-16 at 10.24.17 PMYou will note that for the Hampton Roads cities, each of these are showing a 0″ to 1″ accumulation across at least parts of the Peninsula. The GFS is a little farther south with snowfall accumulations, but the NAM has heavier accumulations for the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck. With all that being said…precipitation amounts are likely to be even lighter than either of these models are projecting! A lot of the precipitation just isn’t happening…or is lighter than expected. Additionally, the colder air has just not pushed far enough southward.

Through last Thursday and even into early Friday, the forecast models were showing rain for everywhere except the Northern Neck. But then the Friday afternoon and evening model runs started showing the snow (& wintry mix) farther south. Then throughout the early part of the weekend, the models were just not coming into agreement at all at a final solution for Monday and Tuesday. And as I type this out, Winter Weather Advisories have been dropped for the Peninsula. Those Winter Weather Advisories continue for the Middle Peninsula and Accomack County on the Eastern Shore. Winter Storm Warnings continue for the Northern Neck. And in all of these areas, forecast snow totals have been been significantly pulled back. Just as an example, here is the latest snow total map from the National Weather Service:totalThis storm is definitely a moving target. For the vast majority of us, this will likely be occasional chilly rain! Tiffany Savona has a much more detailed snow total map on WAVY News10 at 11. Jeremy Wheeler will be on the air with WAVY News10 Today at 4:00 AM and Noon. And of course, I’ll be there bringing you the latest Monday afternoon and evening.


Winter Weather Possible on St. Patrick’s Day?!

March 16th, 2014 at 9:00 pm by under Weather

The answer to the title of this blog is YES. We are tracking the chance for another round of rain/sleet/snow to impact Virginia and North Carolina overnight and into Monday. A Winter Storm Warning is still in effect for areas in pink until Monday afternoon. These areas will likely have the highest snow accumulations. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for all areas in purple until Monday afternoon. These areas could see minimal accumulations.

Winter Weather Alerts

Winter Weather Alerts

This doesn’t mean we won’t see any sleet or snow across the Southside. I think we could see sleet and snow mixing in across the Southside at times, but I don’t think it will accumulate with the rain falling and temperatures above freezing. Ground temperatures are in the 50s right now, so it will be hard for the snow to overcome the warm ground and accumulate.

Read more –> Blog: Definitely a moving target!

Rain showers moved into the region earlier this afternoon and will continue overnight. We should begin to see the transition to snow and sleet across our northern areas just before midnight tonight. Reminder: Blue is snow, green is rain and pink represents a snow/sleet mix.

Future Trak at 12 AM

Future Trak at 12 AM Tonight

Latest computer models are showing the precipitation becoming more scattered in nature by tomorrow morning. But if we do see snow across our northern zones overnight, then roads could be slippery, especially bridges and overpasses. Temperatures will remain above freezing overnight, except across parts of the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. Keep in mind that travel could become more difficult in these areas by tomorrow morning.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Future Trak at 7 AM Monday

We may get a break from the rain/sleet/snow from the late morning into the early afternoon before a new round of snow/sleet moves back into the area. This is a new feature that the computer models are picking up on. Here is Future Trak at 3 PM. This round of snow may have a better chance at sticking on grassy areas and cars since temperatures will be just above 32°.

Future Trak at 3 PM

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

After looking at all of the new data, here is the latest snow totals map through Monday afternoon. Computer models are now showing a little bit more sleet and less snow, so I have brought totals down a bit. Best chance for accumulating snow will be north of Gloucester. Keep in mind that if we see more of a mix, then these accumulations will be too high. When you see a mix, you usually do not see much accumulation because the rain helps to melt the snow and the sleet.

Updated Snow Accumulation Map:

Snow Totals

Snow Totals

The wind could also be a problem on Monday. Expect sustained northeasterly winds from 20-30mph close to the coast and 15-25mph for inland spots. Winds could gust up to 40mph and up to 45mph along to the coast. That will put wind chill values into the 20s during the day tomorrow. Tides will be running higher than normal due to the strong northeasterly winds and the full moon tonight. We could see nuisance tidal flooding during high tide on Monday.

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Make sure you take the umbrella and winter coat back to work tomorrow morning. Happy early St. Patrick’s Day! Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will be here tracking rain/sleet/snow on Super Doppler 10 tomorrow morning on WAVY News 10 Today starting at 4:30 AM.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Tracking Rain and Snow

March 16th, 2014 at 9:28 am by under Weather

I have been watching this storm system closely for the past few days. One thing that has changed the most since yesterday is the models are trending for a warmer solution. If the models are warmer, that means less snow and more rain across our area.

Future Trak @3pm Today

Future Trak @3pm Today

We’ll see scattered showers move in across the Tidewater area around 2-3pm today. At this point, no sleet or snow is expected.

Future Trak @ 11pm

Future Trak @ 11pm

Late this evening we’ll start to see the rain changing over to sleet/snow across the Middle Peninsula, N. Neck, and Accomac County on the Eastern Shore. If you live in this area, you have the best chance to see some accumulations. If you are south of that line, snow totals will be minimal.

Storms Moves Out Tomorrow Morning

Storms Moves Out Tomorrow Morning

The wintry precip begins to fade away tomorrow morning which should decrease the impact across many areas.

Snow Totals For Tonight/Tomorrow Morning

Snow Totals For Tonight/Tomorrow Morning

The majority of the Hampton Roads cities will be spared from this storm only receiving a chilly rainfall. Other areas to the north still have a chance to see snow. Travel will be difficult tonight and tomorrow in the areas where the snow falls. Temperatures will be near 37 tomorrow afternoon, so the melting process will be slow for areas that do receive snow and ice.

We will see more rain Late on Monday night and also Tuesday before we dry out on Wednesday.

 

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Winter Storm Watches Posted!

March 15th, 2014 at 9:38 pm by under Weather

After seeing highs in the 70s today, it is hard to talk about snow and highs only in the 40s tomorrow.

Today's Highs

Today’s Highs

There will be a 25-30 degree temperature drop between highs today and forecast highs on Sunday. A cold front will move in overnight switching our winds out of the north at 10-15mph. We are tracking a piece of energy over Texas which will combine with an area of low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas to bring us a mixed bag of precipitation across Hampton Roads late Sunday into Monday. Winter Storm Watches have been posted across our northern areas from Sunday evening until Monday afternoon.

Winter Storm Watch

Winter Storm Watch

Areas highlighted in blue have the best chances for seeing higher snow accumulations. We should see more of a wintry mix across the Peninsula and more of a rain event across the Southside and North Carolina, which would lower potential snow totals.

If you are running in the Shamrock 1/2 marathon or full marathon Sunday morning, dress for the colder weather. It will be dry, but chilly with temperatures in the lower 40s. We will start off with some sunshine, but the clouds will quickly move in by the late morning hours. Rain showers should move in after 3 PM. Any rain that tries to move in before 3 PM will likely evaporate before reaching the ground since we have a lot of dry air in place right now. Notice that the rain is mainly located across the Southside and North Carolina at 5 PM, so most of your Sunday will remain dry, but much colder.

Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday

Before midnight, the rain should change over to snow and sleet north of the Southside, mainly across our northern areas. Keep in mind that the rain/snow line could easily shift a little farther to the south or a little bit more to the north. This would have a big impact on snow totals.

Future Trak  at 12 AM Monday

Temperatures will continue to fall close to the freezing mark for areas north of the Peninsula by Monday morning. This is where the best chance will be for accumulating snow. Keep in mind that the ground temperatures are very warm, especially after a 70° day today. Jeff talked about this in his blog he wrote earlier today. So, it will be hard for the wintry precipitation to overcome the warm ground for areas south of the Middle Peninsula.

Future Trak  ar 12 PM Monday

Future Trak at 7 AM Monday

It will be a wet Monday morning commute for most people. Travel will become more difficult the farther north you go. Here is my latest thinking regarding snow totals.

Snow Totals

Forecast Snow Totals

Highest totals should still be across the northern zones with the minimal accumulations across the metro areas. This will be mainly a rain event for the Southside and North Carolina. We may see a little bit of sleet and snow mix in across the Southside at times, but I think any snow/sleet will melt on contact with temperatures above freezing. The forecast for the Peninsula is tricky because that is where the rain/snow line will be located. If the Peninsula sees more sleet, then the 1-2″ forecast will be too high. This map is subject to change. Stay tuned!

I will have another update on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX 43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Make sure you tune into WAVY News 10 starting at 6 AM Sunday morning. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will have another computer model update at this time.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 

 


Nice Today; Is Winter Really Over Yet?

March 15th, 2014 at 10:01 am by under Weather
Another Nice Sunrise Today

Another Nice Sunrise Today

We had another nice sunrise today with the passing clouds we had overnight. For today, mostly sunny skies with a nice breeze is what I would count on. High temperatures should be near 70 degrees. Tonight we will see mostly clear skies with lows near 42.

Tomorrow is the day to watch as we have another storm system to track.

Future Trak @ 5pm

Future Trak @ 5pm

For the majority of the day we will see cloudy skies with a strong northeast wind at 10-20mph. I am not expecting any rain until 4-5pm. For the Shamrock Marathon in Virginia Beach, it will be dry and cool tomorrow morning.

Future Trak @ 8pm

Future Trak @ 8pm

As more moisture moves in from the south, the cold air will change the type of precip from rain to snow for the Hampton Roads cities and even for the Eastern Shore. Some other models have the colder air further to the north, meaning more rain and less snow.

Future Trak @ 6am Monday

Future Trak @ 6am Monday

The storm starts to wrap up around midday on Monday. Snow totals from this latest run of Future Trak are high:

Future Trak Snow Totals

Future Trak Snow Totals

I like what the model is doing for the Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore, but I think it is going too high for the Peninsula and Southside. There are two factors I want to point out: 1. The Soil temperatures are warmer which will “eat” some of the snow that falls on it. 2. For the areas I just mentioned, the majority of the precip type will be sleet which is more compact than snow.

My Snow Total Map

My Snow Total Map

Right now, I am being cautious with my totals and trying to find a nice blend between all of the models I looked at this morning. I am also thinking of factors 1 & 2 that I just talked about. This map is subject to more change. Keep an eye our for an update from Tiffany tonight.

Bread & Milk Index: 3 Out of 5

Bread & Milk Index: 3 Out of 5

I kept the index at a 3/5 today just because the confidence is still low on how much snow we may actually get, or not get. It’s still not a bad idea to get the supplies before tomorrow evening. Also, there is a chance we could see additional rain and if it is cold enough, snow again Tuesday.

Regardless of the forecast for this week, lets enjoy the 70 degree weather today!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


More Sun Today, Getting Warmer

March 14th, 2014 at 11:26 am by under Weather

We are in a Two-Day warming trend across Hampton Roads.

Morning Sunrise

Morning Sunrise

We are going to see plenty of sunshine today and tomorrow thanks to an area of high pressure in control. That high pressure will also promote warmer temperatures.

Warm Airmass Moving In

Warm Airmass Moving In

Southwest winds at 10-15mph are expected for today and tomorrow. This will keep our highs at or above average today and we will be in to the 60s tomorrow. This pattern will only last through tomorrow, on Sunday we will have to track a new storm system. The good news is that the next area of low pressure moving in will just bring us rainfall. The latest computer models have been slowly trending warmer, so we shouldn’t have to worry about snow in our area. The latest says that the rain will arrive Sunday afternoon.

Enjoy the mild temperatures!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Winter Has Returned!

March 13th, 2014 at 8:32 am by under Weather

As promised the cold air has arrived.  The cold front arrived last night with some brief showers and some gusty winds.  There were no reports of damage, but there were a few gusts above 40mph.

Cold Front Last Night

Cold Front Last Night

The rain was so brief that most folks barely had two-tenths of an inch.  There probably aren’t too many people complaining about that.  Temperatures dropped to the low/mid 30s this morning.  Wind chills were in the 20s.  As we go through the morning, we’ll see the winds increase.  They were already running from the northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph.  Gusts will increase to 35mph later today.  We’ll have a lot of sunshine as high pressure controls our skies today.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Temperatures will struggle to reach the low 40s this afternoon.  Some areas will only see highs in the upper 30s.  Wind chills will be in the low 30s this afternoon.  Bundle up if you haven’t already.  And don’t worry about the layer thing today.  It will be cold from start to finish.

By tonight the winds will taper off.  Temperatures will drop to the mid-upper 20s with a few 30s near the shore.  Be sure to cover up any flowering plants before tonight.  They will take a hit with lows in the 20s.  Bring in the potted plants and the pets.  You may even want to drip the faucets in some of the inland locations.  I don’t think you’ll have to do that if you live near the coast or shore, and most of the metro should be ok.

Tomorrow the high will slide east allowing for a more southwesterly breeze.  With the ample sunshine we’ll warm from the 20s in the morning up to the low/mid 50s by the afternoon.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we even hit some upper 50s.  Then Saturday looks even better.  The forecast has dried up completely.  So Saturday will be partly sunny now with highs in the low 60s.  The forecast for Sunday has also changed. The rain has been pushed back more and more.  So now it looks like rain will hold off until Sunday afternoon, and will last through Sunday night into Monday.  A stray shower may still be possible Sunday morning, but the bulk of the rain will fall later in the day.  It will be cold again on Monday with highs again near 40.

For those wondering…I will start doing a pollen forecast soon.  It hasn’t hit me too bad just yet, but it’s coming.  Especially with the warm spells and budding trees.  Stay tuned.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Severe Weather Chances For Tonight

March 12th, 2014 at 5:27 pm by under Weather

As a strong cold front moves closer to Hampton Roads, we have a risk for seeing severe weather.

Slight Risk & A Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Slight Risk & A Severe Thunderstorm Watch

All of the areas in the slight risk are in the severe thunderstorm watch tonight until 10pm. The biggest risks are for damaging wind gusts as these storms move in. The risks for hail, flooding and tornadoes remains very low with this setup.

Future Trak @ 6pm

Future Trak @ 6pm

Future Trak @ 9pm

Future Trak @ 9pm

The storms are moving to the East at 45mph. We will likely see the storms across the Hampton Roads Cities around 8pm. The storms will be gone by 10pm. Don Slater will be tracking the storms with Super Doppler 10 all evening on WAVY TV 10.

Stay Sky Aware and stay tuned for warnings.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 


The Spring Tease

March 12th, 2014 at 9:07 am by under Weather

I was out in the yard yesterday doing some yard work.  My trees still drop a lot of leaves during the Winter.  So I have to rake for about 7 months out of the year.  It’s that time again.  It’s worth it though to make the yard look good, and to enjoy the weather.  In the back of my mind I kept imagining Thursday’s weather when I’ll probably be bundled up in 4 layers of clothing.  Big changes are on the way.

It was a real mess in Chicago this morning.  Residents there were getting dumped on with snow.

Midwest Snow-Southeast Rain

Midwest Snow-Southeast Rain

A large area of low pressure was moving from Illinois towards Ohio.  The snow will keep moving east and affect a large part of the Ohio River Valley, the Great Lakes area, and the northeast states.  Some states will see a foot of snow.  We are not expecting snow here, but we will get the cold.  Today we will still be very warm.  Despite lots of clouds, we’ll go for highs in the 70s.  I was thinking upper 70s, but now I’m thinking mid 70s due to the clouds thickening early.  We’ll see a few showers in the late morning to early afternoon. Then we’ll see some scattered showers and storms during the late afternoon into the evening.  A cold front will stay to our west today, but it will move in this evening.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Winds will gust up to 25-30mph out of the southwest this afternoon, but we could see some gusts above 40mph this evening as the front passes.  The chance for severe weather is hard to pin down.  The Storm Prediction Center has our area on the very edge of the slight risk.  Most of us are not in the slight risk, but I’m curious to see the updates.  In my mind, we have a few things working against severe weather.  The first is the ample cloud cover that’s out there.  That is always a big factor when it comes to severe forecasting.  Also, we don’t have a lot of deep moisture in place. In fact…dew points are only going to be in the mid 50s later today.  That’s not impressive.  Upper level winds are strong, but you need big thunderstorms to be able to pull those stronger winds down to the surface.  So for now I think we’ll just see a few strong storms this evening. An isolated severe storm is possible.

Here is the front and the rain on Future Trak at 8pm.  That’s about the best time best time to see storms:

Future Trak 9pm

Future Trak 8pm

Once the front comes through the winds will turn out of the northwest, and temperatures will drop like a brick.  A heavy brick.  So lows tonight will fall all the way down to the low 30s.  Keep that in mind for the sensitive plants that are blooming in the yards.  You may want to cover them with some mulch.  If you’re like me, then you can take some pine straw and cover a few things up.  My day lilies are flowering.  If you don’t get it done today, then you will need to tomorrow as low temps Thursday night will be in the upper 20s. That will be a bigger hit to the flora and fauna.

I didn’t mean to skip tomorrow’s forecast.  I just wanted to stay on topic.  Ahem.. so tomorrow we’ll see partly cloudy skies, but the strong northwest winds will keep the temperatures down.  We’ll be in the 30s almost all day.  We’ll top-off just around 40 degrees for an hour or two.  Remember it will feel like the 20s in the morning with the wind chills.  It will feel like the low 30s during the afternoon.

We will warm up a bit on Friday.  We’ll be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40s.  Then there’s Saturday… The models have been pushing the timing of the rain back.  So that is good news for the St. Patrick’s Day parade and some of the events for the Shamrock Marathon.  For now it looks like some scattered showers late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.  However, it’s possible that the rain may keep getting pushed back.  If it goes into Sunday morning, then that will impact the bigger races for the Shamrock.  I’ll be able to lock that down tomorrow when the weekend gets into closer range of the hi-res models.

Until then.  Get the coats back out of the closet.  You’ll need them by tomorrow.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler