Weather

February 2015 – Going Down In The Record Books

March 1st, 2015 at 9:33 pm by under Weather

February of 2015 is going down in the record books for being the 3rd COLDEST February since record keeping started in the 1800s! The graphic below shows the high temperatures from February 1 through February 28. Notice that temperatures were WAY BELOW average for more than half the month.

February High Temperatures

February High Temperatures

Being so cold, it was only fitting that we broke 4 temperature records. This February will also go down as being the 7th snowiest on record. The Norfolk Airport recorded 11.5 inches of snow for the month. Keep in mind that you may have seen more snow at your house. All of our climate data is taken from observations at the Norfolk Airport.

Today (March 1st) is the first day of Meteorological Spring. Meteorologists define seasons based on the annual temperature cycle. Each season consists of a group of 3 months. The winter months are December, January and February, otherwise known as the coldest months of the year. This makes it easier to keep seasonal data because the dates never change. This year, astronomical spring begins on March 20th, which is based on the position of the Earth in relation to the sun.

So far…it has been a cold and dreary start to March. Highs were only in the 30s today and we saw a mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain most of the day. The rain will taper off before midnight, but fog will likely develop overnight and could reduce visibilities in the morning. Monday will be a drier, FINALLY! Expect clouds and fog in the morning. A cold front will move through the region around midday and switch our winds, allowing drier air to move into the region. The clouds will clear out and the sun will be out with highs in the low to 40s. The weather pattern will remain very unsettled this week, meaning lots of rain chances are in the forecast. Most days this week will be chilly, with Wednesday being an exception.

Temperature Trend

Temperature Trend

Don’t get too excited for the 60s because we are tracking the chance for rain Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday could get interesting. A very strong cold front will move into the region Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Rain will develop behind the front. As colder air moves in, the rain will change over to sleet and snow. Accumulations are possible, especially for areas north of the metro. It’s still too early for numbers, so stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Glazed

March 1st, 2015 at 7:43 am by under Weather

Glazed donuts?  Yes please!

Glazed roads?  No thanks!

We will be tracking some freezing rain through the morning hours, mainly north and west of the Metro, so if you live in Suffolk, Hampton, Newport News, Williamsburg, Gloucester, Mathews, Cape Charles, Melfa..be aware of a glaze of ice on roads, sidewalks, and cars.

Freezing Rain This Morning

Freezing Rain This Morning

We are less likely to see freezing rain in Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and North Carolina since temperatures are already a couple degrees above freezing.  That’s the key here – if surface temperatures are at or below freezing, we’ll see frozen precip..places above freezing will just see regular rain showers.  We’ll be tracking scattered rain showers this afternoon with highs in the low-40s, so keep your umbrella on standby!

Future Trak 12 PM

Future Trak 12 PM

By the way, if you’re looking for an indoor activity today, you can check out the McDonald Garden Center Outdoor Show in Hampton from 9 AM until 6 PM.  Admission is free and you can meet Lex Gray and Joe Fisher at 10 AM, then Meteorologist Tiffany Savona and Deanna LeBlanc at 1 PM!  (That’s even better than a glazed donut!)

This is not the only chance we’ll have for showers this week.  Our weather pattern will be rather unsettled through Thursday, so most days come with a chance of wet weather.

Rain Chances - 5 Days

Rain Chances – 5 Days

Leave your umbrella at home on Monday!  We’ll kick off the work week with clouds in the morning, but more and more sunshine is expected through the afternoon with highs in the upper-40s.  Most of your Tuesday will be dry – I don’t expect any rain to develop until late in the day.  Wednesday looks to be the wettest day of the week, but also the warmest thanks to a brisk southwest breeze.  Between the rain and highs in the mid-60s, that snow pack will diminish quite a bit!  As temperatures drop off into the 30s Wednesday night, we may see the transition from rain over to a wintry mix/snow by Thursday morning.

*Sigh* Now I really want a donut….  See you later!

- Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Freezing Rain Sunday Morning?

February 28th, 2015 at 10:16 pm by under Weather

First off…today we tied the record for the COLDEST February 28th EVER! Back on February 28, 1934, the high at the Norfolk Airport was only 30°. Today, the high temperature at the Norfolk Airport was 30°. Average high this time of year is 54°! February has been a very cold month and it looks like it will be one of the coldest on record. I will have more on that in my blog tomorrow.

Highs Today

Highs Today

I’m tracking another disturbance to our south that will merge with an area of low pressure to our west to bring us the chance for rain on Sunday. One problem…if the rain moves in during the early morning hours, then we could have freezing rain because temperatures will still be in the 20s at that point. So it will be a battle of the rain vs. the temperature. I don’t think we will have a widespread freezing rain event, but I think a few spots could see freezing rain between 7 AM-12 PM tomorrow morning. Here are the areas at risk.

Freezing Rain Possible In Pink Areas

Freezing Rain Possible In Pink Areas

Our Future Trak model has some light freezing rain moving in around 8 AM for some of our inland and northern areas.

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

If you see any freezing rain, then you may have a light coating of ice on your car in the morning. There may also be some slick spots on bridges and overpasses. If you have a garage or a carport, I suggest moving your car into your garage or under your carport tonight. This will keep you from having to scrape the ice off your car just in case you see freezing rain.

Future Trak has some lingering freezing rain over the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck around Noon.

Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday

The wintry precipitation will change over to rain as temperatures warm up into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Rain will continue into the afternoon and evening. The rain and slightly warmer weather should help melt more of the snow and ice.

**Reminder** Deanna LeBlanc and I will be at the McDonald Garden Show in Hampton from 1-3 PM tomorrow. If you plan on going, come stop by and say hi to us! The show is indoors, so don’t let the rain keep you away.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Trading the Ice Scraper for the Umbrella

February 28th, 2015 at 9:32 am by under Weather

There’s the saying, “When life gives you lemons, make lemonade!”..

So what do you do when life gives you massive piles of snow?

Build ridiculously awesome snowmen!

Actually..in this case we got pictures of ridiculously awesome Olafs, Minions, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Penguins, and Sharks!

Did anyone build a Wicked Witch of the West?  Because unfortunately for the snowmen, we will see a lot of melting over the next few days.

What To Expect

What To Expect

With sunshine in the forecast today, that snow pack will get even smaller!  Just remember – temperatures do not have to be above freezing for us to see melting..the snow will melt anytime its in direct sunlight.  It’ll be a nice, quiet start to the weekend, but some changes are on the way for Sunday.

Clouds will gradually increase overnight, so expect mainly cloudy skies by the time you wake up tomorrow morning.  As we head through the morning hours, a batch of rain will approach from the west.  We’ll be tracking scattered showers anytime after 10 AM.  If you look at our Future Trak map, you’ll note that this model picks up on a few splashes of purple along the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore – this indicates the possibility for some freezing rain and sleet.

Future Trak 12 PM Sunday

Future Trak 12 PM Sunday

Williamsburg, Gloucester, Mathews, Melfa, Chincoteague – these are the places that have the best chance of seeing a frozen mix of precip.  The Southside and North Carolina should just see garden-variety rain showers.  We’ll be keeping a very close eye on surface temperatures since that will play a big role in whether you see rain or freezing rain.  I’m going to keep scattered showers in the forecast through Sunday evening.

Showers aside, a warming trend will start on Sunday!

Temperature Trend - 5 Days

Temperature Trend – 5 Days

Highs will be close to 40°, then the mercury will make another 10-degree jump on Monday!  Temperatures will drop slightly on Tuesday, but at this point, 46° will probably feel like 70°!  With a southwest breeze on Wednesday, we’ll trade highs in the 40s, for highs in the mid-60s!!

But hold on..don’t get your hopes up for a sunny and 64-degree day.

Our weather pattern will be a little unsettled next week, so with this warm up comes several chances for rain showers.

Rain Chances - 5 Days

Rain Chances – 5 Days

We’ll be tracking rain late Tuesday through Wednesday, into Thursday.  Wednesday and Thursday may be complete washouts.  As temperatures are expected to drop through Thursday afternoon, we may see a transition from rain to a rain/snow mix, but that’s six days out and a lot can change between now and then, so just get your regular, weekly amount of bread and milk..

If you need me, I’ll be in the cracker and soda aisle..

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Slow Improvement For The Weekend

February 27th, 2015 at 6:44 pm by under Weather

Sunshine this morning helped improve the streets a bit. Additionally, we’ve had an afternoon breeze which has dried the main roads a little more.

However, the neighborhood roads are still a slushy frozen mess and will freeze hard as temperatures drop to between 16 and 22 by dawn. It’ll actually be a couple of degrees cooler for Saturday. But more sunshine should help melt the roads just a bit more. Sunday looks a bit warmer (near 40) with a stray rain shower or two. Much warmer next week!

urgh


Warmer and Wetter Weather..BUT NOT TODAY

February 27th, 2015 at 7:43 am by under Weather

Lets see here..

THE DRESS (the one that some people see black and blue, others see white and gold)..
Llamas on the loose in Sun City, Arizona..
Spring is 21 days away..

Just trying to find other things to talk about other than the cold and snow!

Okay, I do have to talk about a chance of a few passing flurries today, but I don’t think everyone will see snowflakes.  Williamsburg, Gloucester, Mathews, Melfa, Chincoteague – these are the places that have the best chance of seeing flurries, but we may see the snowflakes as far south as Newport News and Poquoson.

What To Expect

What To Expect

Future Trak 3 PM

Future Trak 3 PM

You can see our Future Trak Forecast shows some faint splashes of blue around the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore, indicating that 2 in 10 chance for flurries.

After yesterday, I think we can handle some flurries!  Luckily, little to no accumulation expected.!

Snowflakes aside, expect scattered clouds out there today with highs in the low to mid-30s.  Even though temperatures will only be a couple degrees above freezing, we will still see some melting with those snow piles in direct sunlight.

As high pressure builds in overnight, we’ll have mainly clear skies with temperatures dropping back to about 20°.

We’ll kick off the weekend on Saturday with plenty of sunshine with highs near 30°.  We’ll trade the sun for more clouds on Sunday, but it’ll be about 10° warmer with highs near 40°.  You can thank a shift in the wind direction for that warm up!

Next 5 Days

Next 5 Days

Temperatures will be below average all weekend, but that won’t be the case next week!  You can see on our Temperature Trend graphic that the mercury will surge close to 50° Monday and Tuesday.  Believe it or not, we may be talking about highs in the 60s by Wednesday!

But hold that thought..

With the warmer weather comes the wetter weather.  (I would never be able to say that perfectly on-air..)  We will be tracking a chance of rain showers on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, so get ready to trade the snow boots for rain boots….the ice scraper for the umbrella!

Stay safe….and dry….and warm!

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Snow Totals And What’s Next

February 26th, 2015 at 1:38 pm by under Weather

The snow tapered off around 9-10am, but there was still a small batch going on the Peninsula and Middle Peninsula around midday.

Satellite/Radar At Midday

Satellite/Radar At Midday

The flurries and light snow showers will be pushing out soon. It is caused by a little wave of energy in the mid levels that is behind the main system.  The surface low is happily farther heading out to sea.  We picked up some decent-high snow totals.  The highest totals were from inland areas of the Southside,  as well as the Pesinsula, and the Middle Peninsula.

Snow Totals

Snow Totals

There were a couple of isolated spots that had a little more, but these were the average.  The amounts for parts of the northern Peninsula and Middle Peninsula were underforecast (by me), but parts of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake were overforecast.  One thing we did really well was to forecast for that mix zone which set up in North Carolina and the Southside.  There were even periods of rain and sleet last night which lowered the snow totals there.  That is something that a lot of other forecasters didn’t really cover much.  Here was one photo of the heavy snow from the Gloucester area:

Snow On Deck (Gloucester)

Snow On Deck (Gloucester)

Wow!  Have a seat eh?  That photo was from Tracy.  It really came down up there.  Also we did have reports of some trees that had either bent over or had branches broken.  Here was an example of that from Newport News:

Snow Bends Tree

Snow Bends Tree

A lot of the roads are being plowed and treated today.  Temps have risen to the low/mid 30s.  So there will be some minor melting today.  Hopefully that will get some of the ice off of the power lines and trees.  The problem is that tonight the temps will drop down to the teens and 20s.  So we’ll see a refreeze of the roads.  So there will be black ice along with the ice and snow out there tomorrow morning. Many schools will be closed again, and many businesses will be either delayed or possibly closed again.  This is getting tough for the local economy.  Many businesses have been losing a lot of money (not all).  And now a lot of schools will have to double up their lessons to try to catch up.  Let alone the increasing amount of make up days.

Here’s a little bit of good news….Tomorrow we’ll see partly cloudy skies.  Highs will rise to the low/mid 30s.  If we’re lucky, then we’ll squeeze out some mid-upper 30s.  This should help to melt a lot of the roads.  Saturday we’ll see sunshine, but highs will only be in the low 30s.  We’ll finally warm up to the 40s on Sunday with partly cloudy skies.  Speaking of warm…we’ll see highs in the 50s next Monday and probably some 60s on Wednesday.  Rain will move in though.  It may be wet for 2 of those 3 days.

Thanks again for all of your reports and feedback.  They really do help with the forecast.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Mid-Morning Snow Update

February 26th, 2015 at 8:29 am by under Weather

Snow has been coming down heavily at times, but it also keeps going back and forth with a mix of sleet up onto the Southside.  We’ve seen a lot of rain across northeast North Carolina.  Here was the radar at about 8:00am this morning.

Super Doppler 10

Super Doppler 10

Notice that the back edge of the precip has made it to Emporia.  Snow will taper off over the next hour and a half.  Then we’ll just see flurries for the midday and the afternoon. The actual surface low is southeast of Hatteras and is moving northeast.  We’ve had reports of about 6-7″ from the Peninsula to the Middle Peninsula.  About 5-7″ on the Southside with a few higher amounts from Suffolk westward.  Lesser amounts over most of northeast North Carolina. We’ll see another inch – inch and a half before it wraps up.

I’ve updated the snow totals so far.  I’ve increased the amounts on the Middle Peninsula.

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

We are on track to get that 7-9″ from the Peninsula and Middle Peninsula.  A few isolated areas will see 10″ before it comes to an end.  We’ll see flurries continue through the midday and the early afternoon.  Temps will hover in the low/mid 30s.  There may be a few peaks of sun this afternoon.  If that happens, then we could get some minimal melting.  Tonight whatever melts will re-freeze and turn into patch black ice.  It will probably be a messy commute again tomorrow morning.  Especially in the higher total areas.    We’ll put out one more blog either later this morning or around midday.  Thanks for all your input and reports.  They have really helped.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Thursday Morning Update

February 26th, 2015 at 5:23 am by under Weather

I wanted to put out a quick update on the snow and wintry mix.  Snow has moved into the region.  We have heavy snow in places, but we have also had that wintry mix in the region.  Here was the view on Super Doppler 10 around 5:00am:

Super Doppler 10 Radar

Super Doppler 10 Radar

The interesting thing about this is that we have had numerous reports of rain with the moderate snow.  Ive had reports of rain in Franklin, Virginia Beach, and even Newport News. It seems that when the precip lightened up it would turn to rain.  Then when things picked up it would turn to snow.  This is probably due to the snow dragging the cold air down. This is a common occurrence.  The snow that does fall is heavy and wet.  Temps were actually a little above freezing, but the heavy snow was enough to overcome that.  It was around 32 degrees inland and north.

Based off the latest, here is the latest snowfall forecast:

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

I’ve increased the heavy snow area from last night by an inch or two.  The precip was ending over towards Raleigh/Durham.  There is some dry air moving in from the west/southwest.  So our snow should taper off between 8-9am.  At least that’s the ballpark.  we’ll have a longer blog out later this morning with more details.  Please stay in today if you can.  The roads are rough.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Midnight Update

February 26th, 2015 at 12:27 am by under Weather

And so it begins!!! The snow began just after 10 PM across North Carolina and now the snow is pushing into Virginia as I start writing this (11:30 PM). Once the snow starts, it will really comes down quickly. It should also start out as a wet snow, so the flakes may be rather large. Our Liz Palka reported that the roads in Elizabeth City became snow covered in less than an hour. So road conditions are going to deteriorate quickly, so it’s best to stay off the roads tonight and even early tomorrow morning. This event is just starting and the heaviest snow will fall between now and 7 AM Thursday morning. Our latest Future Trak model is doing a very good job of showing where the snow is right now, so its solution should be reliable over the next few hours. Here is what it has at 3 AM. Notice the heavy snow is located right across the Metro area.

Future Trak at 3 AM

Future Trak at 3 AM Thursday

The snow will continue right into tomorrow morning. Notice that the model has rain for much of North Carolina most of the night. I think the snow will change over to more of a mix of snow/sleet/rain for North Carolina. That is why we think snow totals will be lower there. I even think we will see some of the mix move into Virginia Beach and Chesapeake, which could reduce totals there too. Keep in mind that there is going to be a tight gradient in snow totals. For example…you may live in Northern Virginia Beach and see a few more inches than areas in Southern Virginia Beach.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Future Trak at 7 AM Thursday

Roads are still going to be snow covered in the morning because the snow will not stop falling until Thursday afternoon. Make sure you check the closings scrolling at the bottom of our screen on WAVY-TV 10 or check the closing lists on wavy.com here.

Here are our latest snow totals forecast zone by zone.

North Carolina Snow Forecast

North Carolina Snow Forecast

Southside Snow Totals

Southside Snow Totals

Peninsula Snow Totals

Peninsula Snow Totals

Northern Zones Snow Totals

Northern Zones Snow Totals

We also expect a burst of heavy snow to develop overnight. If that band moves over your region, you could see snow fall at the rate of 1-2 inches per hour. So isolated higher totals are definitely possible. You may even hear some thunder, since this system is so dynamic.

High temperatures will only rise into the lower 30s tomorrow, so don’t expect a lot of melting. The kids will have plenty of time to enjoy the snow!

If you are going to be up late tonight, tune into WAVY TV 10 at the top of each hour. Chief Meteorologist Don Slater and I will have continuous updates on this winter storm. Our next newscast begins at 4 AM with Meteorologists Jeremy Wheeler and Ashley Baylor.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona