Weather

Back To The 90s This Week

July 6th, 2014 at 9:15 pm by under Weather

Hurricane Arthur moved out just in time for folks to enjoy the holiday weekend. I hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July. Highs on Saturday were around 80° and today we saw highs in the low to mid 80s. Average high this time of year is 87°. The heat and the humidity will make a big return this week starting tomorrow.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We are tracking a weak area of low pressure off the coast of Florida and Georgia that will move northeast during the day tomorrow. The low may get close enough to North Carolina to bring the Outer Banks a few showers tomorrow, but chances are only running around 20%-30%. The rest of the region will remain hot and dry with highs in the lower 90s. Winds will turn more southwesterly tomorrow, ushering in the warmer air to the south.

Hot & Humid Early in the Week

Hot & Humid Early in the Week

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Average high on Tuesday is 88°, while the record is 102° set back in 2012. A large upper level trough  (big dip in the jetstream) will move east and bring a cold front closer to Hampton Roads by Wednesday afternoon, allowing for a few afternoon storms to develop.

Late This Week

Weather Pattern Late This Week

This cold front will stall out across Hampton Roads Thursday and Friday bringing better rain and storm chances to the region. Some computer models are even hinting that the front may linger across the region this weekend. Right now I have a slight chance for rain on Saturday. If the front remains draped across the area this weekend, then rain chances will be going up on Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the link to Jeremy’s latest blog on heat safety tips. Remember to take the heat seriously. Heat is the number one weather-related killer in the U.S. Stay cool this week!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Arthur Is Over, Now Let’s Enjoy The Sunshine

July 5th, 2014 at 9:06 am by under Weather

Hurricane Arthur did cause some damage across the Outer Banks to businesses and some homes. I am happy the storm was moving through at 20 mph yesterday, if it was slower, there would have more areas with heavy damage. Right now Arthur is a tropical storm:

Arthur heading towards Greenland

Arthur heading towards Greenland

I wanted to zoom out the map and show you how far north Arthur is going to travel, all the way to Greenland! I bet by the time it gets that far north it will dump a few feet of snow over that region. Anyway, back to Hampton Roads, our weather will be calm and pleasant today. Highs should be in the upper-70s to low 80s across our area. If you want to go to the beach today the threat for rip currents is still high.

Beach Forecast

Beach Forecast

The swell from Arthur is going to drop during the day. Winds will be onshore likely all day at 10-15mph.

Dry air has also moved back in to our area, today and tonight the humidity levels will remain low. Tonight for fireworks displays, temperatures will be in the mid-60s, so you might want to grab a sweatshirt on the way out the door. Tomorrow morning a few cities may see low temperatures as cool as 49 degrees! Most areas will have lows near 59-63. Then near the water lows will be near 70. Tomorrow, we will be sunny again with highs near 85.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Arthur Is Gone, Looking Nice For The Weekend

July 4th, 2014 at 12:19 pm by under Weather

The winds are still going to be up this afternoon with mostly NW winds at 10-15mph, gusts could still be near 30mph.

Recent Wind Gusts

Noon Wind Gusts

Winds This Evening

Winds This Evening

If you want to go out to the beach for your Independence Day, conditions will still be dangerous in the water. The wind from Arthur helped to create a large swell that did cause some damage to Hwy 12. Looking ahead to this evening, waves will still be high for the area beaches.

Wave Forecast

Wave Forecast

Beach Forecast

Beach Forecast

The rip current threat looks to remain high again tomorrow as the swell begins to fade. Remember, Arther will still be in the North Atlantic tomorrow with 70mph winds sending a swell back towards us. Weather this weekend will still be quiet with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s.

Fireworks Forecast

Fireworks Forecast Friday

Remember, many cities will have their displays tomorrow or later. Find out the schedule here.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

 

 


Hurricane Arthur (8am Update)

July 4th, 2014 at 8:24 am by under Weather

Hurricane Arther is a Category 2 Hurricane with 100mph sustained winds. We will see the storm moving further to the northeast and offshore during the rest of our morning. As it moves further away the rain will slow down and eventually dissipate in to the afternoon. Rain totals have been near 2.6″ in WIlliamsburg and Gloucester, Around 1″ for the Southside Cites and the Eastern Shore. For

Still Windy

Still Windy

Wind speeds will decrease to about 15-25mph by midday and 10-20mph this afternoon. Gusts could still be at 30mph.

The strong winds helped to cause some minor flooding across the OBX. This water came up and flooded from the sound side of the OBX. The sound side flooding should decrease this afternoon.

We have a chance to see some sunshine this afternoon. High temperatures will be near 83 degrees.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Hurricane Arthur (5am Update)

July 4th, 2014 at 4:56 am by under Weather

The eye of Arthur has moved further to the northeast over the last 3 hours since my last update.

Radar Snapshot (4:30am)

Radar Snapshot (4:30am)

Arthur's Track

Arthur’s Track

As the storm continues it’s path offshore the wind speeds will still remain strong for the next 3 hours (Until 8am). Some of the recent wind gusts:

  • Waves, NC: 84mph
  • Rodanthe: 96mph
  • Frisco: 91mph
  • Avon: 84mph

Our winds will start to turn more northwesterly across our region over the next few hours. Regardless, wind speeds will still be 20-30mph across Virginia and inland N. Carolina. 30-40mph for the OBX with gusts still near 60mph. This afternoon our winds will be NNW at 15-25 G30.

I will continue to monitor Arthur and will have another update close to 8am.

Surf Update:

As we are starting to get more light, the swell near Jennette’s Pier in Nags had had 8-9ft waves with offshore winds, the sets haven’t cleaned up yet, but they will likely this afternoon. Be careful and only go out if you are experienced since there will be rip currents.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

 


Hurricane Arthur (2AM Update)

July 4th, 2014 at 2:09 am by under Weather

Tiffany Savona and Don Slater have been tracking the storm all night as Arthur made landfall, as the hurricane moves in to the Hampton Roads cities, we will begin to see our wind gusts increase over the next few hours. From now until 7-8am weather conditions will be the most intense for the Hampton Roads cities and the Eastern Shore. (Also of course for NE N.C.)

Check this out if you didn’t see this update from Tiffany earlier: http://blogs.wavy.com/2014/07/03/how-will-arthur-impact-you/

Super Doppler 10 @ 2am

Super Doppler 10 @ 2am

The one thing that we cannot forget about is the isolated risk for tornadoes in these outer bands. Early this morning we had tornado warnings for Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake, and parts of Portsmouth. These bands may create waterspouts which could move onshore as tornadoes.

The National Hurricane Center also has a quick update on Arthur as of 2am:

  • Category 2
  • 100mph Sustained Winds
  • Arthur is moving NE at 21mph

*Arthur is the earliest Hurricane to hit North Carolina in a season since records began in 1851. The previous record was July 11, 1901.

Stay tuned for more updates…

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


How Will Arthur Impact You?

July 3rd, 2014 at 7:10 pm by under Weather

*9 PM Update: Arthur is now a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.

The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has shifted a little bit more to west. This means that Hatteras Island along with the rest of the Outer Banks will get hit with the strongest part of the storm shortly after midnight. Remember the strongest part of the storm is the right front quadrant. Isolated tornadoes are also a threat within the right front quadrant, which is why a Tornado Watch has been issued for Mainland Dare County and Outer Banks Dare County until 2 AM.

Arthur's Track

Arthur’s Track

I’m showing you this wide view of Arthur and the cold front to the west because the cold front is very important to the forecast. This cold front will be moving through Hampton Roads overnight sparking off numerous showers and storms across the region. As the tropical moisture moves in, the potential for heavy rain will go up as well. Upper level winds ahead of the front are blowing from southwest to northeast, so these winds are going to push Arthur to the northeast or out to sea by late Friday morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Here is a close-up of Arthur on Super Doppler 10 Live. Storm is looking healthy and there is a well-defined eye south of the North Carolina coast.

Super Doppler 10 Radar

Super Doppler 10 Radar

Arthur is moving to the NNE at 15mph so the center should be near Hatteras around 2 AM. That means the strongest wind will move in before then, closer to around midnight for the Outer Banks and closer to 4-6 AM for Virginia.

I am going to break down what you can expect across your area over the next 12-24 hours.

Outer Banks including Hatteras Island, Rodanthe, Nags Head, Kill Devil Hills, Kitty Hawk and Corolla:

  • Sustained winds between 80-90 mph with gusts ranging from 100-110 for 4-6 hours
  • Rain Totals: 2″-5″
  • Waves: 14-20 feet
  • Storm Surge: 3-6 feet

Highway 12 will definitely see overwash and will likely be impassable down toward Rodanthe. Expect beach erosion. Prepare for widespread power outages.  We will likely see sound side flooding Friday morning. If you did not evacuate, make sure you have a hurricane kit ready in case power is out for hours/days. Secure your boat, board up your windows and make sure your cell phone is charged.

 Inland Northeast North Carolina:

  • Sustained winds between 40-50 mph with gusts up to 60 mph for 4-6 hours (Elizabeth City and points east)
  • Sustained winds between 20-30 mph with higher gusts for 4-6 hours. (West of Elizabeth City)
  • Rain Totals: 2″-4″

Bring in any loose patio furniture, garbage cans or anything that can be picked up by the wind. Prepare for scattered power outages and make sure your cell phone is charged.

Coastal Virginia, including Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake and Portsmouth:

  • Sustained winds between 35-45 with gusts up to 50 mph for 4-6 hours
  • Rain Totals: 1″-3″
  • Waves: 10-15 feet

Bring in any loose patio furniture, garbage cans or anything that can be picked up by the wind. Prepare for scattered power outages and make sure your cell phone is charged.

Inland Virginia (including Suffolk, Franklin), the Peninsula, Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore

  • Sustained winds between 25-35mph with gusts up to 45 mph for 4-6 hours
  • Rain Totals: 1″-3″

Bring in any loose patio furniture, garbage cans or anything that can be picked up by the wind. Prepare for scattered power outages and make sure your cell phone is charged.

We are not too concerned about tidal flooding across the Hampton Roads cities as the worst of the storm will be moving through during low tide, which is around 6:30-8:30 AM Friday. However we could see localized street flooding where the heaviest rain bands set up due to Arthur or the cold front moving eastward. Stay tuned!

 

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Arthur Gains More Strength

July 3rd, 2014 at 1:34 pm by under Weather

Arthur has gained more strength.  It has increased its winds to 90mph.  The pressure has dropped to 981 mb.  It is moving a little faster at 10mph to the NNE.  The eye is still present on the radar, and the rain has already made it onto southern North Carolina.

Arthur On Radar

Arthur On Radar

There have been a couple of tornado warnings in that area as well.  There is a tornado watch up for Dare county until about 2am.   Since the sustained winds have increased already, the forecast has also increased.

Track Of Arthur

Track Of Arthur

Now Arthur is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane as it approaches the Hatteras area.  This is terrible news.  The consensus is for the system to move right over Hatteras or within 20 miles.  I have one new thought about this. If the hurricane were to move a little more to the west, then it’s possible that the water on the sounds will surge to over 4 ft.  Especially if the winds are above 100mph.  Even the Atlantic tide could see moderate tidal flooding in that scenario, but that could be a real developing problem.  So keep that in mind residents along the Outer Banks.  Especially from Kill Devil Hills southward.  I have a longer blog with more information here: AM Blog. It goes into more detail.  Be safe out there.  This looks like it will be pretty rough for folks along the Outer Banks.  Hampton Roads will have some impacts, but it would be similar to a long-lived squall line.  Stay tuned for updates!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Hurricane Arthur Is On The Move (CAT 2 Update)

July 3rd, 2014 at 9:15 am by under Weather

(update: The 11am update just came out from the National Hurricane Center.  The current sustained wind speeds have increased to 90mph.  It is moving NNE at 10mph.  The forecast now has Arthur as a category 2 hurricane when it approaches the Hatteras area tomorrow morning. We’ll have a new blog out shortly after the midday show.  Plus a full update on WAVY News 10 Midday). 

Hurricane Arthur has gained size and strength.  The winds increased to 80mph.  Looking at the latest satellite/radar it looks like it is bigger than the state of Georgia.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The system clearly has an eye, but it already had an eye during its history as a tropical storm.  There has been dry air to the north of the storm, but that has not stopped Arthur from strengthening.  However, I have noticed that the eyewall has begun to open up a bit on the western side.  There has been very little wind shear and the water temperatures are near 80 degrees.  The pressure has dropped to 983 mb (millibars of pressure).  That is about 29.03″ of mercury.  For reference we are at 29.91″ of mercury right now at the station.  Remember, the lower the pressure-the stronger the storm.  Sustained winds have risen to 80mph already.

In the last few frames of the satellite/radar it appears that the storm is beginning to take a more northeast motion.  That was indicated in the last update as it is moving NNE at 9mph.  It’s possible that the upper level winds are beginning to influence the storm slightly, but there is still no wind shear. The wind shear will increase, but not soon enough.

The hurricane will move move northeast today and it will pick up speed.  By late tonight it will be within 100-200 miles from Hatteras.

Track Of Arthur

Track Of Arthur

By 2am tomorrow morning the storm is expected to have 85mph winds sustained.  According to the latest it will pass either right over or very close to the southern Outer Banks between 3 and 8am.  By the afternoon the storm should have pushed well northeast of the region.  We’ll see improving weather into the evening.

The main drivers of Arthur will be the upper level winds and a cold front moving in from the west.

Tomorrow Morning

Tomorrow Morning

The cold front will not stall out, but it will slow down.  This will create the chance for heavy rain over the whole region as it interacts with the moisture from Arthur.  Here is the latest forecast for rain totals from our Future Trak computer model.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

With the front interaction, be prepared for the rain forecast to increase.  Especially over Hampton Roads.  With other models in mind I would say that the area could see 1-3 inches with higher amounts closer to the storm. (Most likely the Outer Banks).

The winds will be a major problem based off of the latest track.  If it follows the current path, then we are looking at winds between 55 and 75mph over the Outer Banks.  Especially near Hatteras.  Winds over northeast North Carolina will be between 35 and 55mph.  Gusts will be higher for both.  Winds over Hampton Roads will run about 15-25mph with gusts up to 45mph.  Winds will be northerly for most.  Here are the forecast wind gusts tomorrow morning from Future Trak.  Wow!

Forecast Wind Gusts

Forecast Wind Gusts

Currently, the tides are not expected to be too high for Hampton Roads.  Along most of the Chesapeake Bay the tide is currently forecast to rise about 1-1.5 ft above normal. It helps that low tide will be tomorrow morning when the storm is closest.  Along the Outer Banks, however, we will probably see moderate tidal flooding.  That will be about 2-4ft above normal.   2-4ft surge could also affect the sounds of North Carolina.  That would be Friday morning through Friday afternoon.  Remember too, on top of that, waves will be about 10-15ft.  Remember those waves will affect any homes that are right on the beaches.  Waves could even be higher near a few beaches over the OBX.  There may be flooding similar to hurricane Sandy over the Outer Banks.  Even though Sandy was well offshore.  Add to that, that the rain will be falling at the same time.

The forecast models are all in fair agreement of the track.  They still aren’t in exact agreement, but there is a consensus for near the Hatteras area.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

The GFS model takes it right over Hatteras.  The European model has it just east of Hatteras by only a few miles early Friday morning.  It has been one of the strongest and most consistent models with the storm so far.  So basically there is a pretty high confidence in the southern Outer Banks taking a direct hit or a very close call.

Folks over the southern Outer Banks should evacuate.  Hatteras, Rodanthe, Waves, and Salvo.  The rest of the Outer Banks should prepare for strong damaging winds, power outages, and tidal flooding.  Northeast North Carolina should also prepare for those strong winds.  I’ve heard from a local farmer (Greg my weather watcher) that crops will take a hit with the strong winds expected.  Let alone any damage to homes.  Hampton Roads should also expect strong winds.  I don’t expect widespread damage at this time, but we could easily see a few tree limbs down, heavy rain, and scattered power outages. It will be the equivalent of a strong afternoon Summer-time thunderstorm, but for a long period of time.  If the storm wasn’t growing in size, then it wouldn’t be too bad, but the storm size has been increasing.

We’ll be updating again around midday.  Maybe the storm can weaken a bit in the short-term.  Stay tuned!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Wednesday Evening Update On Arthur

July 2nd, 2014 at 6:00 pm by under Weather

The 5pm update has been issued by the National Hurricane Center. Here is the latest forecast track:

Forecast Track

Forecast Track

You can see the current information box on the graphic above. This storm has 70mph winds, remember winds at 74mph is the threshold for being a category 1 hurricane. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for more counties than what was issued earlier today. There were the areas added: Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Norfolk, Virginia Beach. Go HERE to see the current warnings.

Future Trak @ 1am Friday

Future Trak @ 1am Friday

Impacts

OBX Impacts

VA Impacts

VA Impacts

Overwash is a highly possible along Hwy 12 especially south of the Oregon Inlet. The northern half of the Outer Banks will also see significant surf with waves around 10ft.

The computer models have been trending a path just slightly to the west of the NHC’s forecast line putting the center of the storm over Cape Hatteras around 2am. If the storm makes a westerly track the wind speeds will be higher for the OBX cities. For the Hampton Road’s cities wind speeds will be 20-30mph with gusts around 40mph. Flooding doesn’t look to be an issue as the storm surge will be less than 1 foot.

As new models come up we will let you know, keep an eye on the warnings page and WAVY TV 10 for any further updates.

*Helpful Links*

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson