Weather

Goodbye Ana, Hello Storms!

May 11th, 2015 at 6:18 pm by under Weather

Rain is finally tapering off across most of the region as the remnants of Ana push away from us. Ana did bring us some heavy rain and gusty winds along the Outer Banks. Here are rain totals over the past 24-hours. Keep in mind, that these totals are taken at specific locations. The heavy downpours were scattered around the region, so the heavy rain may have missed the airports shown below. So if you saw heavy rain, then you probably saw rain totals over 1 inch at your house. Notice that the highest totals were across the Outer Banks!

48-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

So we can say goodbye Ana! Next up…showers and storms developing across the western part of Virginia. These storms are moving southeast, so there is a chance they could hold together tonight. If the storms survive the journey to Hampton Roads, we could see another round of rain closer to 10 PM-12 AM. If the storms weaken before getting here, then we will stay dry, warm and muggy with temperatures hovering in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Future Trak at 10 PM Tonight

Future Trak at 10 PM

All of the rain should be gone by tomorrow morning and most of your Tuesday will be rain-free. Near record heat is likely tomorrow as high temperatures rise to around 90° with the help of our strong southwesterly winds. The record high at the Norfolk Airport is 92° set back in 1881. The humidity will be on the high side as we will still have plenty of moisture in place thanks to Ana. A cold front will move into Virginia Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and storms may develop out ahead of this front anytime after 3 PM. Best chance for rain will be across the Southside and North Carolina.

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Any storm that develops could turn strong to severe. The atmosphere should be quite unstable tomorrow afternoon with highs around 90° and lots of moisture in place. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon.

Marginal Risk For Severe Weather

Marginal Risk For Severe Weather

The marginal risk level is the lowest level for potential severe weather. That means there is only a slight chance for isolated severe storms. We are not expecting this to be a widespread event. Just stay tuned to our latest forecast and download the WAVY Weather app so you have access to the latest watches/warnings and radar on-the-go. The line of storms that develops should move fairly quickly across the region, so don’t expect the rain to last for too long tomorrow. Once the front moves through, winds will turn more northerly and usher in some much cooler and drier air. I’m really looking forward to Wednesday! Highs in the mid 70s with low humidity…sounds like perfection to me! :)

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be watching the radar tonight. He will have a full update on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Monday Afternoon Update

May 11th, 2015 at 1:18 pm by under Weather

This is just going to be a quick afternoon update on what to expect throughout the rest of the day. Check out Jeremy Wheeler’s morning blog for a more details. The remnants of Ana are right over top of us. Rain will continue on and off this afternoon. There may be some heavy downpours in some areas, but most folks should just see a steady light to moderate rain. The threat for any storms or tornadoes has gone down even more. We have plenty of tropical moisture in place, but we missing the instability (heat). The rain, thick cloud cover and fog have kept temperatures down into the 70s so far, so I don’t think many spots will be hitting 80 degrees. Highs will likely be in the mid 70s this afternoon.

Expect a few lingering showers around the evening commute, but the rain shouldn’t be as widespread as it is right now (lunchtime).

Future Trak at 3 PM

Future Trak at 3 PM Today

Winds have been running between 10-15mph for inland locations. Along the coast, winds are sustained between 10-20mph with gusts exceeding 30mph at times. Strongest winds have been reported along the Outer Banks in Manteo and Hatteras.

Manteo Past Wind Gusts

Manteo Past Wind Gusts

Wave heights have been running between 4-6 feet, but I don’t think anyone will be in the water today. Maybe a few surfers, but that is about it. There may be some overwash along Highway 12 in the Outer Banks.

I will have a complete updated forecast coming up on WAVY News 10 beginning at 4 PM.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Ana And The Heavy Rain

May 11th, 2015 at 8:28 am by under Weather

Ana is still surviving as a weak area of low pressure.  It was still classified as a tropical depression this morning, but it is morphing into a broader extratropical low.  However the system is surrounded by plenty of tropical moisture, and that has led to heavy downpours.  Mostly over the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The center was located near Rocky Mount, NC and was moving slowly to the east/northeast.  This will move through Hampton Roads through the day.  It will create on-and-off rain showers, and they will be heavy at times.  Once we get some heating in here, say by the afternoon, then the thunderstorms will increase. The storms don’t look to be severe, but localized flooding will be possible.  Here is what Future Trak shows for this afternoon:

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

Notice the small patches of yellow, orange, and red.  That indicates convection (rapidly rising air).  There won’t be a lot of upper level wind support, but there will be some instability.  Now we’ll already have some broad spin from the low itself.  That could get focused to a small area where the thunderstorms form.  Therefore, we could get a quick-lived (and isolated) tornado in the region as the storms roll through.  The threat is low, but not zero.  It would be similar in nature to a brief water spout if it forms at all.  By the evening the low will start moving out.  The rain chances will taper off.  A lot of the area will see a half inch up to an inch of rain.  However, 1-2″ is possible if you get caught under one of the downpours for a while.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

Luckily the wind won’t be much of an issue.  The winds will be breezy along the shore with some gusts to 25mph down towards the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach.  Overall, we are only looking at southeast winds at 10-15mph with a few higher gusts.

Wind Forecast (mph)

Wind Forecast (mph)

Tides won’t be an issue, but there are still some high waves along the shore.

The system will move out by tonight, but we are not out of the woods yet.  We’ll be ahead of a cold front for most of the day Tuesday.  With a southwest wind, the thermometers will start to sweat (not literally).  High temps will rise to the upper 80s.  We may even see a few 90s.  It will still be fairly humid too.  So the when the front comes through in the evening, then we could see some strong/severe thunderstorms.

Future Trak (5pm Tue.)

Future Trak (5pm Tue.)

The main threat from tomorrow would be some strong gusty winds.  It should move through pretty quickly, so there is less potential for flooding.  Then it will be easy going.  We’ll see some nice cooler/drier air Wednesday through Friday. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s and 60s.  By next weekend we could see some more scattered showers, but we’ll see.  There’s no big weather system,  it’s still a ways out, and there will be some upper level ridging.  So it’s in no way a done deal.

In national news.. The weather has been pretty wild in other locations.  There has been snow over parts of the Rockies, tornadoes in the Plains states, and of course our local tropical system.  Here’s a link with more info: Wild U.S. weather.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Remnants Of Ana To Bring Rain Overnight

May 11th, 2015 at 1:47 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

I’m writing this from home, so I don’t have access to the better graphics available at work. But I do feel that I should weigh in before this dying storm moves through. The remnant winds of Ana are around 30 mph…and are likely to continue to diminish through the night. 15 to 25 mph winds are possible through the region through tomorrow. Rain should begin to be a little more steady after midnight and continue off and on through early Monday.

Here’s a radar picture (NWS) from about 12:30 A.M.:

Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 12.57.46 AM

The center of the storm is located just to the northeast of Fayetteville, N.C. in this radar shot. I don’t want you to notice the center so much in this picture (hard to see, anyway!), but I do want you to note that the most concentrated area of rain is to the southeast of where the storm’s center is located. As the storm continues north-northeastward overnight and early Monday, that heavier area of rain is likely to continue northeastward through eastern North Carolina. Here’s another screen shot from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center:

Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 1.14.19 AMIt’s a small screen-shot, but it’s easy to see that the heaviest concentration of rain (purple) is over eastern North Carolina. There could be as much as 2″ to 4″ of rain there. In the Hampton Roads area, look for .50″ over the Peninsula…with .50″ to 1.5″ over the South Side cities. The heavier amounts for the South Side will fall over southern sections of Chesapeake and especially Virginia Beach.

One more picture here. I’ve taken the above radar picture and added a circle at the location of the storm’s center. Arrows very generally define the wind direction. Remember that this is a low pressure system…a veritable whirlpool of air spinning inward toward its center. Hopefully, this will give you some idea of wind flow as the storm passes overhead. Winds are likely to be in the 15 to 25 mph range…not likely to be dangerous from the remnants of Ana.

RADAR_HIGHLIGHTEDOne last thing. The storm had 65 mph winds for quite a while before it made landfall near Myrtle Beach. That means that some residual wave action is likely to be active for another day for especially the Outer Banks. Beach erosion (road damage?) and rip currents are extremely likely for the Outer Banks. Farther north, wave action is not likely to be as significant. However, rip currents are still quite likely for Virginia’s beaches.

That’s it! Ana has behaved pretty much as we expected…and will likely continue to diminish in intensity as it moves through into the day Monday.


Ana Weakens, Heavy Rain Still Possible

May 10th, 2015 at 8:11 pm by under Weather

Ana made landfall around 6 AM near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and has already weakened to a tropical depression. The 5 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center was the last advisory that will be issued on Ana. Ana will likely weaken even more overnight as the storm moves northeast. The remnants of Ana will impact Hampton Roads tomorrow. The forecast has the strongest winds at 30mph tomorrow over our region, but I think those winds are going to be too high. Coastal areas may see wind gusts up to 25mph, but 30mph may be too high.

Tropical Depression Ana

Tropical Depression Ana

Some of Ana’s outer bands moved across Virginia and North Carolina today. Rain was hit or miss and if you experienced a heavy downpour, it only lasted a few minutes. The shower activity is winding down now as we get closer to sunset, so we should see a break in the action until at least midnight. Then the rain will push back in from the south as the remnants of Ana move toward us. Expect scattered rain showers as you wake up tomorrow morning. Make sure you grab the umbrella before heading off to work!

Future Trak at 8 AM Monday

Future Trak at 8 AM Monday

Rain will continue right into the afternoon as what is left of Ana moves across North Carolina and Virginia.

Future Trak  at 12 PM Monday

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Isolated storms may develop during the afternoon as high temperatures rise to around 80°. We will have plenty of tropical moisture in place, so the main threat tomorrow will be the potential for heavy rain. Heavy downpours will cause ponding on the roads and that could lead to localized street flooding. Rain will taper off Monday evening as we lose the heating of the day and the remnants of Ana push offshore.

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Any heavy rain that falls will add up quickly in the rain gauges. 0.5-1 inch of rain is expected across the region over the next 24 hours. Some isolated areas may see higher totals.

The remnants of Ana will also bring increasing wave heights and dangerous rip currents to the area beaches. Wave heights should range from 2-3+ feet for Virginia Beach and 3-5 feet along the OBX. Winds are not going to be that bad. We could see gusts up to 25mph, but that would only be right along the coast. Gusty winds will also be possible within any storm that develops. Small craft advisories have been issued for the bay and the ocean until Tuesday morning. Use caution boaters! Overall….this storm is going to have minimal impacts across our region. Here is the breakdown.

Monday Impacts

Monday Impacts

A cold front will keep rain chances alive Tuesday afternoon. Near record heat is possible Tuesday with highs around 90°! Then we cool back down and dry out by Wednesday.

Download the WAVY Weather app so you can have access to Super Doppler 10 radar on-the-go! The app is free of charge.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Mama Ana

May 10th, 2015 at 9:02 am by under Weather

First off, HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY to all of the Moms out there!!

Just going to give a quick update here..

Tropical Storm Ana is loitering around Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.  Ana has already lost some strength – if you remember, on Saturday morning, she had sustained winds of 60 MPH, now winds are down to 40 MPH.  Tropical Storm Warnings are still posted from Morehead City, NC to Georgetown, SC.

Tropical Storm Ana

Tropical Storm Ana

As this storm moves farther inland, it’ll continue to lose a lot of energy.  Ana will start make a northeast trek this evening, so the remnants of Ana will be here in Hampton Roads tomorrow!  Even though our Tropics Tracker (graphic below) shows winds around 35 MPH in Hampton Roads, that’s a little on the high side.  We’ll likely see sustained winds around 10-15 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH..mayyyybe 25 MPH.

Tracking Ana

Tracking Ana

The bottom line here – we will have widespread showers and storms on Monday….not today!

So.. In the meantime, we’ll enjoy some decent weather on Mother’s Day!  From this morning into the midday hours, expect a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures warming into the low-80s.  Just so you know, dewpoints will be in the mid-60s, so it’s going to be quite humid out there – it’ll feel more like it’s in the mid to upper-80s!

Future Trak Forecast - 12 PM

Future Trak Forecast – 12 PM

As some of the outer bands of Ana move northward, there will be a chance for some hit or miss style showers this afternoon.  It’s one of those situations where some of us will stay completely dry all day whereas others will get a quick drink of water!  Cities and towns farther south (NC and the Southside) have a better chance of seeing some isolated showers.  Points farther north (the Peninsula, Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore) will likely stay dry!

Future Trak  Forecast - 5 PM

Future Trak Forecast – 5 PM

I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans with Mom – just keep a close eye on the radar or look for those clouds with the dark gray bases!  With a light onshore breeze, it’ll be a little bit cooler along the coastline.

Here’s what you can expect in Hampton Roads and North Carolina:

Impacts From Ana - Today

Impacts From Ana – Today

As the remnants of Ana move north overnight, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance for a few stray showers.  Showers will become more likely towards morning.  Look for rain in North Carolina first, then the wet weather will move into the Southside and Peninsula, then into the Middle Peninsula and Eastern Shore.

Future Trak Forecast - 7 AM Monday

Future Trak Forecast – 7 AM Monday

We’ll be tracking scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, so make sure you have your umbrella as you head out to work or school!  With some of these embedded thunderstorms, expect heavy downpours that could lead to some localized flooding!  There will be a marginal chance for a strong storm or two.

There will be another chance for showers and storms on Tuesday, but not associated with Ana!  A cold front will swing through on Tuesday, so with the heat, instability, and lift, there will be another marginal chance for a couple of strong storms.  By the way, Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week – highs in the upper-80s + dewpoints in the mid-60s = heat indices near 90°!

The second half of the week will be way more comfortable!  Highs will be back in the mid-70s on Wednesday, then only upper-60s on Thursday!

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor

Just a fun fact – Tropical Storm Ana is the earliest named storm in the Atlantic since Ana in 2003!!  Crazy coincidence, huh??  The National Hurricane Center recycles storm names every 6 years, so expect another Ana in 2021!


All About Ana

May 9th, 2015 at 9:03 am by under Weather

It’s supposed to be all about Mom this weekend….but it’s all about Ana!

We are now tracking Tropical Storm Ana!  Early this morning, Ana was upgraded to a tropical storm because we are seeing stronger winds and more thunderstorms near the center of the storm.

Here’s a look at the latest information on Tropical Storm Ana:

Tropical Storm Ana

Tropical Storm Ana

Ana has sustained winds around 60 MPH and it’s moving very slowly..north-northwest at 5 MPH.  It’s about 105 miles south-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina and 115 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.  This storm will stay offshore today, but will start to move onshore by early Sunday morning.  Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted from Morehead City, NC to Georgetown, SC.

In the meantime, we have been dealing with some rather dense fog across Hampton Roads.  Several places reported under a quarter-mile of visibility this morning.  You couldn’t see anything through our Tower Cam:

Dense Fog on Tower Cam 10

Dense Fog on Tower Cam 10

Once the wind picks up, the fog will lift and dissipate….then our attention will turn to Tropical Storm Ana.

I want to start out by saying, Ana will have very little affect on your weekend plans!  We will catch some of the outer bands of Ana today, but overall, just expect a mix of sun and clouds with a chance for a few isolated showers.  Since we are just talking about a chance for a few isolated showers, I would not cancel any outdoor plans!  If you are concerned with the showers, be sure to download our Super Doppler 10 Weather App – that way you can have the radar and our latest forecasts at hand anytime you need them!  It’s going to be a warm and slightly humid day with highs in the upper-70s to low-80s!

As I said, Ana will stay offshore all day.  The farther south you go, towards the Outer Banks, that’s where you will likely see more clouds and a few scattered showers.

Future Trak Forecast - 5 PM

Future Trak Forecast – 5 PM

I wouldn’t recommend going in the water along the Outer Banks due to high waves and strong rip currents.  If you do go in the water, make you stay close to a lifeguard tower!

Tropical Storm Ana will start to move onshore early Sunday morning.  She will likely make landfall somewhere between Wilmington, NC and Myrtle Beach, SC.

Future Trak Forecast - 7 AM Sunday

Future Trak Forecast – 7 AM Sunday

As Ana moves onshore, she will start to lose a lot of strength.  Expect partly cloudy skies across Hampton Roads tomorrow.  As this storm moves farther onshore, there will be a slightly better chance for some isolated showers and storms tomorrow afternoon, but most of the shower action will stay south and west of the Metro.  Obviously, the Outer Banks will have a good chance of seeing scattered showers, but it looks like those rain bands will also affect places like Ahoskie, Franklin, Emporia, and Richmond.

Future Trak Forecast - 5 PM Sunday

Future Trak Forecast – 5 PM Sunday

Showers aside, winds will remain pretty light across Hampton Roads, but we could see gusts around 20-30 MPH along the Outer Banks, especially towards Hatteras and Rodanthe.

So here’s the bottom line for your weekend:

Ana Impacts - Hampton Roads

Ana Impacts – Hampton Roads

Ana Impacts - North Carolina

Ana Impacts – North Carolina

By Monday morning, the remnants of Ana will start to move northeast towards Hampton Roads.  At this point, Ana will no longer be a tropical storm..just an area of low pressure.  This means we actually have the best chance of seeing widespread showers and storms on Monday..not today or tomorrow!

Tracking Tropical Storm Ana

Tracking Tropical Storm Ana

Future Trak Forecast - 7 AM Monday

You will need an umbrella all day on Monday since we will be tracking on and off showers with some embedded thunderstorms.  But that’s not all folks!  A cold front will swing through the region on Tuesday, so that will bring us another chance for some scattered showers and storms.  Tuesday will be a very warm and humid day with highs in the mid-80s, but it’ll feel closer to 90°.

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona will have another update for you this evening!

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Unimpressed

May 8th, 2015 at 6:15 pm by under Weather

It’s Mother’s Day weekend and Momma Ana is making her presence known in the Carolinas!

As of the 5 PM update from the National Hurricane Center, Ana is still a Subtropical Storm.  Since this storm is starting to show more tropical characteristics, (stronger winds and heavier rain near the center) it’s possible it may transition into a tropical storm by Saturday morning….but that’s a wait and see situation..  Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted from Morehead City, NC to Georgetown, SC.

This is what Subtropical Storm Ana looks like right now:

Subtropical Storm Ana

Subtropical Storm Ana

Subtropical Storm Ana has sustained winds of 45 MPH.  This storm is stationary..about 170 miles south-southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.  Ana has made very little, almost no advancement today.  It is expected to begin moving north-northwest overnight.

By Saturday morning, Ana will still be well offshore with sustained winds of 50 MPH.  Again, it’s possible this storm may become Tropical Storm Ana by then..

Ana - Saturday Morning

Ana – Saturday Morning

Future Trak Forecast - 7 AM Saturday

Future Trak Forecast – 7 AM Saturday

For us in Hampton Roads, we’ll catch some of the outer bands of Ana.  Just like today, we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds along with a chance for some isolated showers.  Since we are just talking about a chance for isolated showers, I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans.  I maaaaaayyyy hesitate to go in the water since wave heights will be a little higher and the rip currents will be stronger.  If you do go in the water, stay close to the lifeguard towers!

If you’re going to be in northeast North Carolina, expect more clouds along with intermittent showers.  The wind gusts will be a little bit higher along the Outer Banks, between 20-30 MPH.  The waves will be higher and the rip currents will be stronger, so once again, I wouldn’t recommend going in the water.

Very little change in our Future Trak Forecast from Saturday morning to Saturday evening.  We will continue to track partly cloudy skies with a chance of isolated showers.  We have a better chance of seeing isolated showers along the Southside, but I can’t rule out a stray shower near Hampton or Newport News.

Future Trak Forecast - 5 PM Saturday

Future Trak Forecast – 5 PM Saturday

Between Saturday night and Sunday morning, Ana is expected to move onshore, most likely in or around Myrtle Beach with sustained winds of 45 MPH.

Ana - Saturday Night

Ana – Saturday Night

Even though Ana will move onshore, there won’t be any change in the forecast for Hampton Roads.

Future Trak  Forecast - 7 AM Sunday

Future Trak Forecast – 7 AM Sunday

Don’t change any plans with Mom!  Expect a mix of sun and clouds on Sunday with another chance for isolated showers.  Just keep an umbrella handy in case you get caught under one of those waterlogged clouds!

So here’s the bottom line:

Impacts - Hampton Roads

Impacts – Hampton Roads

Impacts - North Carolina

Impacts – North Carolina

The one thing that won’t be affected by Ana – temperatures!  Highs will range from the upper-70s to low-80s Saturday and Sunday!

As Ana moves farther onshore, she will lose a lot of strength.  (Not that there was much to being with..)  By Monday morning, Ana will just be an area of low pressure in southern North Carolina.

Ana - Monday Morning

Ana – Monday Morning

The remnants of Ana will actually bring us our best chance of showers, primarily Monday afternoon to Tuesday morning.  Monday and Tuesday will be a pair of warm and humid days with highs ranging from the low to mid-80s.

We will be tracking Ana every hour, so if anything changes, we’ll update you on WAVY.com and our social media pages!  This would be a great time to download our Super Doppler 10 Weather App – that way you have our radar and the latest forecast anytime you need it!

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Subtropical Storm Ana And Your Weekend.

May 8th, 2015 at 9:08 am by under Weather

What is Ana doing?  Will it rain this weekend?  Will it rain on Mother’s Day?  How much hairspray do I use?  These are all questions that folks want to know.  The hairspray question is easy….A pretty good amount.  The other questions will take a little longer to explain.

Subtropical storm Ana formed last night off the coast of South Carolina.  This morning the broad center was located about 160 miles south/southeast of Myrtle Beach, SC.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Looking at the latest satellite/radar, this system is not looking very impressive.  It actually lost a lot of the bigger thunderstorms around its broad center.  This system is wrapping in some dry air.  Since it is subtropical this may be a significant factor in the intensity forecast.  It is near the Gulf Stream.  So that is one source of fuel for the system, but that is a narrow corridor of warmer waters.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.cf.gif

Sea Surface Temps (NOAA)

The system is forecast to slowly drift north/northwest.  Officially, the storm is expected to strengthen slightly over the next 24 hours.  Then it is forecast to move towards the shore.  If you look at the above map, you’ll notice that there is much cooler water near the coast.  This should weaken the system dramatically if it doesn’t weaken already before moving towards the shore.  The European model and the National hurricane center are a little slower in bringing it ashore.  They have it more towards Sunday.

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast

Meanwhile the GFS and our Future Trak model have it moving inland more between late Saturday into Sunday:

Future Trak (Saturday)

Future Trak (Saturday)

The sooner it moves ashore, the sooner it should weaken further.  All forecasts still have the system moving inland and then to the northeast after that point.  I think the system will become a remnant low or even an open wave as it moves into our region by Monday.  This means that the winds will be down to nothing, but the rain chances will go up.  The moisture around the center would give us that higher chance for rain.  Then the system will kick out by Tuesday.  However, we’ll still see a chance for rain ahead of a cold front which will arrive on Wednesday.

So with all of that said. Let me spell out the expected impacts:

Hampton Roads/southeast Virginia:

Rain: We’ll see (isolated) showers in the region.  Pretty low chances (20-30%).  There may be some scattered showers for a brief period, but overall the weekend looks good.  Rain will probably increase on Monday.

Wind: Hardly anything.  The low will be far from us, and by the time it makes it up here the system will either fall apart or will be very weak.

Waves/rip currents: There will be a higher threat for rip currents and the waves will be above 3ft.

Tides: Tides won’t be a problem.  The winds and moon phase just won’t be conducive to higher than normal tides.

Northeast North Carolina/Outer Banks:

Rain: Isolated to scattered showers.  A stray thunderstorm possible.  (About a 30-40% chance for showers).  Also, a little higher chance at seeing a little heavy rain.  Highest chances for rain south, but NOT a washout for the weekend.  Higher chance for rain on Monday.

Wind: Light breezes this weekend. Mostly near the shore.  Hatteras/Rodanthe could see some gusts above 25mph as they are closer to the system.

Waves/rip currents: This could be a big problem along the southern Outer Banks.  The waves will be about 5-7 feet.  The rip currents threat is high.  So folks may not be able to get in the waters along the Southern Outer Banks.  Be sure to swim near a life guard, and be extra vigilant.  Have fun surfers.  Should be a nice southeast swell for a while.

Tides: Not a problem here either.  One exception… If the tide increases just a bit more than normal, then the high waves may be able to cause some beach erosion.  That would be a real problem where they are repairing highway 12.  Other than that, folks should be fine.

Tornadoes: Huh?  Well…if the area of low pressure remains intact as it moves through (though weak), then there may be enough rotation to spin up a quick/weak tornado or water spout. This would be on Monday.  The Storm Prediction Center even has a marginal risk for tornadoes tomorrow towards Hatteras.  So keep an eye to the sky down that way.

Now the forecast may change a bit.  The strength and timing of Ana may change.  But the overall forecast for our area has a good consensus by the models.  It should be a pretty good weekend including Mother’s Day.

Stay tuned for updates and have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

 

 


Ol’ No Name

May 7th, 2015 at 5:59 pm by under Weather

Here’s the great thing about social media – you can get updates minute by minute..no need to wait for updates every few hours!  During the 4 o’clock show, the National Hurricane Center tweeted that they will NOT be issuing any immediate advisories associated with this coastal storm because the thunderstorm activity was pretty limited.  It’s possible they will issue advisories around 11 PM, so be sure to catch Chief Meteorologist Don Slater on WAVY News at 11 to see if this storm becomes “Ana”.

This is what we are tracking right now:

Coastal Storm

Coastal Storm

The National Hurricane Center is giving this storm an 80% chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.  You’re probably asking, why a subtropical cyclone and not a tropical storm?  A tropical storm, is a warm core low with the heaviest rain and the strongest winds near the center of the storm.  A subtropical cyclone is a cold core low with the strongest winds and heaviest rain approximately 100 miles from the center of the storm.  Subtropical cyclones generally do not form into hurricanes, that’s not to say they can’t, but it’s unlikely.  The center of this storm is about 200 miles south southeast of the South Carolina coastline, but they’ve already been dealing with periods of heavy rain.

So here’s what we are thinking with this coastal storm..

The center of this storm will still be off the coast of South Carolina by Friday morning.  You can see on our Future Trak Forecast that Hampton Roads will catch some of the outer bands of this storm.  That means we’ll likely see partly sunny skies along with a chance for a few stray showers.  Northeast North Carolina and the Outer Banks have better chances for seeing more clouds a few scattered showers.

Future Trak Forecast - 7 AM Friday

Future Trak Forecast – 7 AM Friday

This storm will pretty much sit and spin off the coast all day.  With very little advancement, we’ll keep isolated showers in the forecast through Friday evening.

Future Trak Forecast - 7 PM Friday

Future Trak Forecast – 5 PM Friday

The farther north you go, (Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, Eastern Shore) the less likely you are to see any wet weather!  Even along the Peninsula and Southside, I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans on Friday, but you may want to keep an eye on the radar..just in case!  You can download our Super Doppler 10 Weather App to your smartphone, so you’ll have the radar at hand anytime you need it!

By Saturday morning, this storm will start to push farther onshore somewhere between Wilmington, North Carolina and Charleston, South Carolina.  (Myrtle Beach may be the bullseye.)  Even with this storm moving onshore, it will have very minimal affect on Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina.

Future Trak Forecast - 7 AM Saturday

Future Trak Forecast – 7 AM Saturday

We’ll be tracking a mix of sun and clouds along with a chance for a few isolated showers on Saturday AND Sunday.  Cities and towns along the Outer Banks have a better chance of seeing scattered showers with bouts of heavy rain.

Here’s the bottom line for Hampton Roads and North Carolina:

Storm Impacts For Hampton Roads

Storm Impacts For Hampton Roads

Storm Impacts for North Carolina

Storm Impacts for North Carolina

Again, minimal impacts!  We’ll be in and out of the clouds with the possibility of some isolated showers.  There could some pockets of heavy rain along the Outer Banks, but we are not concerned with any flooding.  We’ll be more concerned with higher waves and stronger rip currents stretching from Virginia Beach to Kill Devil Hills.  There will be a slight onshore breeze in Hampton Roads from Friday through Sunday, but wind gusts will be higher along the Outer Banks..up to 25-30 MPH.  I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans, but I would hesitate to go in the water!

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor