Weather

Arctic Air Eviction

February 20th, 2015 at 5:54 pm by under Weather

It hasn’t paid its dues and it has overstayed its welcome..

The arctic air is getting an eviction notice tomorrow!  Grab your icy mess and get outta here!!

Although, I will say, the ice can provide a good photo op!  This was a shot of the James River taken earlier today, around Noon:

James River Bridge Friday

James River Bridge Friday

We’ll be tracking warmer temperatures and rain over the weekend, so I would be very surprised if all of the snow and ice survived by Monday.

Expect some sunshine Saturday morning with temperatures starting off in the teens.  Even though clouds will gradually increase throughout the day, a light southerly breeze will boost temperatures into the 30s during the afternoon, and then the 40s by the evening hours.

Saturday Planner

Saturday Planner

Most of your Saturday will be dry.  It’s possible that the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore could see a mix of sleet and rain as early as 5 PM, but I expect dry conditions along the Southside and North Carolina.

Saturday Rain Chances

Saturday Rain Chances

After 9 PM, rain will spread across southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina.  The rain will continue through Sunday morning, so the roads will likely be a bit slushy – just something to keep in mind if you’re going to go to church or taking the dog for a walk!  This is probably a good point where I should mention clearing ice from storm drains so the water has a place to go once we see some melting!

Future Trak Sunday Morning

Future Trak Sunday Morning

The rain will not last all day!  By Sunday afternoon, I’m optimistic we’ll see some sunshine with temperatures warming into the mid-50s.

The 50s won’t stick around long – highs will be back in the 30s on Monday.

Temperature Trend

The Next 5 Days

Hey, at least we don’t have highs in the teens or 20s on our 7-Day forecast..

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Cold Today, Melting Weekend, Snow Next Week?

February 20th, 2015 at 8:57 am by under Weather

Brutal cold has moved into Hampton Roads. It is historically cold outside.  My weather watcher (Doris on the lower Eastern Shore) had 9 degrees.  We both couldn’t remember a time in the last 10 years when she had a temperature like that.  I do remember a cold morning or two in 2005/2006.  Norfolk International Airport’s temperature broke the record this morning.  As of this writing we bottomed out at 9 degrees.  (It may have dropped to 8 briefly). The old record was 13 degrees set back in 1896.

Morning Temps

Morning Temps

The coldest temperature that I saw was at Wakefield.  It dropped to zero there for about 2 hours.  My weather watcher, Don in Toano, reported -3 degrees at 7:30am.  Wow!  Wind chills were between -5 and 0.  The wind chill at Wallops Island was at -14. Luckily we do have a lot of sunshine out there.  So we will warm up at tad.  Literally a tad.  We’ll rise to the upper teens later today.  If we’re lucky then we’ll get some low 20s mixing-in.  Let the good times roll!  Wind chills will be between 9-14 degrees.  Winds will be northwest at 10-15mph, but should lighten up by the late afternoon.

We had a lot of water main breaks recently.  If a pipe freezes then the ice expands and can crack the pipe. Expanding ice is a huge force.  Also, Tthere is a lot of pressure going through the main lines themselves.  The problem in our region is that the pipes are not buried as deep as they are to our north.  I did work for the city water department for a Summer back up in Illinois.  The pipes were buried fairly deep up there.  About 6 feet. I don’t know the depth of the pipes here, but the recent cold is able to penetrate to the pipe depth.  So there will likely be more main breaks.  Here is one article from FEMA about the subject: Pipe burial depth.

By tonight the high will move offshore.  We will develop light southerly winds.  That may help the temps (A TAD) during the overnight.  So instead of Norfolk bottoming out at 9 degrees, it may drop to 11 or 12.  The record low for tomorrow is 11 degrees (also 1896).  Through the day tomorrow we’ll have southerly winds.  However, it will be such a cold start that it will take a while before the temps really rise.  Moisture will be streaming up from the south. We’ll see a little bit of overrunning precipitation around the midday and early afternoon.   This will lead to some snow in western and central Virginia.  Most of the snow will stay west of us.  However, there will be a brief wintry mix of rain, sleet, and some snow from the Peninsula to the Northern Neck.  Our model even has a little for the Eastern Shore (rain and sleet there) by 5:00pm.

Future Trak (5pm Sat.)

Future Trak (5pm Sat.)

I believe it will be too warm on the Southside and North Carolina for anything other than rain with a few sleet pellets.   High temps will be in the low 40s there with upper 30s from the Peninsula northward.  Again..this is late in the day.  The precipitation will mainly turn into rain as the upper levels warm even more by Saturday night.  Some sleet may continue to mix in during the overnight.  We’ll keep warming on Sunday.  Highs will be in the mid 50s.  Yahoo!  While it will be warm, there will be a high chance for rain for the first half of the day. Then the rain chances will taper off through Sunday afternoon.  This will help to melt the ice/snow in the region.

Monday will by dry here.  At least during the day.  Highs will drop to the upper 30s.  Now…. some models have an area of low pressure forming to our southeast late Monday into Monday night.  The Canadian model and European (at the time of this writing) showed either snow or a wintry mix edging into the region between Monday night into Tuesday.  The northern extent making it up to about the Peninsula in those cases.  Temps would probably be cold enough for mainly snow in that scenario with some wintry mix possible.  However, the GFS model shows the low staying farther southeast.  It does have a little wintry mix up to parts of northeast North Carolina, but not much more north of there.  The GFS has been doing better this Winter.  It’s actually done a very good job lately with the recent weather.  So there’s a little more stock in that one, but you have to stay tuned to the forecast.  I’m hoping we get a break from the snow, but I’m trying to keep an objective eye on the forecast.  Regardless, it shouldn’t be as cold behind that system.  Highs will be in the 30s for most of next week.  In fact…I don’t know if there is any cold air left in the Arctic.  It all came down to the southern U.S.

Try to stay warm folks.  We still have a little ways to go with the cold.  I’m looking forward to the heat wave of 55 degrees on Sunday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Teeth Chattering, Record Shattering..

February 19th, 2015 at 6:05 pm by under Weather

The warm air is just a plane ride away!

Thursday High Temps

Thursday High Temps

It’s not often you see warmer temperatures in Montana, Wyoming, or Alaska in the winter..

These were our high temperatures today:

Thursday High Temps

Thursday High Temps

Here’s the bottom line: if you didn’t like the weather today, you reaaaaally won’t like it tomorrow!

With mainly clear skies overnight, the mercury will tumble back into the single digits by Friday morning.  We could potentially break shatter a 119-year old low temperature record!!  Our current record is 13° set back in 1896.

Friday Morning Low Temps

Friday Morning Low Temps

Friday Morning Wind Chills

Friday Morning Wind Chills

With bitterly cold temperatures and breezy conditions, wind chills will be well below zero!  A *WIND CHILL ADVISORY* will be in effect through Noon on Friday for wind chills between -5° to -10°.  If you are going to be out Friday morning:

  • Wear warm layers, including a hat, gloves, and scarf.
  • Slow drip your faucets to keep pipes from freezing.
  • Use towels or blankets to block the cold seeping in through doors and windows.
  • Keep your pets inside.

Despite plenty of sunshine in the forecast, temperatures won’t rebound much Friday afternoon – expect highs in the teens with wind chills in the single digits!  This is the coldest air (as far as high temperatures go) we have seen in over 20 years!

The Next 5 Days

The Next 5 Days

Clouds will increase on Saturday and it’s possible that the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore may initially see a snow/sleet/rain mix during the early afternoon hours.  By Saturday evening, we will all see rain with temperatures warming into the low-40s.  (That high of 41° will likely come late in the day.)  Temperatures will continue to warm through the overnights hours into Sunday morning.  Expect rain for the first half of your Sunday, but things will start to dry out during the afternoon with highs in the mid-50s!

Ahhhhhh..rain and warm temperatures..the snow’s natural enemy….

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Record Cold Is Here!

February 19th, 2015 at 8:39 am by under Weather

Last night we did have some snow fall during the evening.  This was as the arctic cold front moved through the region.  So some areas pickup up another half inch to an inch of snow.  I’ve heard reports of a little more between the Peninsula and Middle Peninsula.   N9w high pressure is building in from the west as cold air plunges down from the northwest.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Temperatures dropped down to the teens by the early morning.

Morning Temps

Morning Temps

The wind chills were in the single digits. A couple of readings were even negative.  We’ll see a lot of sunshine today, but the wind will stay strong.  It will be out of the west/northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph.  This will reinforce the cold air through the day.  So highs will only be near 20.   Tonight high pressure will settle into the region.  Winds will very gradually taper off.  We’ll see clear skies.  Low temps will drop to the single digits.  It’s been a long time since we’ve seen air that cold.  In fact the record low for tomorrow morning is 13 (1896).  Tomorrow through the day we won’t warm up much.  We’ll only see highs in the upper teens.  It will be sunny and a little breezy.  Then we’ll be cold again Friday night into Saturday morning.  The forecast low is near 10 in Norfolk.  The record for that day is 11 (1896). Notice that these are long-standing records.  I haven’t seen a lot of record lows broken in the last few years in our area.  So this cold is for real.

By Saturday afternoon we’ll have southerly winds.  So we’ll warm up to the upper 30s.  Then on Sunday we’ll warm it up even more. We’ll see highs in the low/mid 50s. Rain is likely through the day.  So we’ll finally see a lot of melting on Sunday.  Another cold front will move through the region Sunday evening.  We may see a few flurries on the backside of it into Monday morning, but that’s all I see for now.  Highs will be in the 30s on Monday.  On Tuesday there will be an area of low pressure offshore.  It will move fairly close to our region.    For now it looks like it will stay offshore as well as the precipitation, but stay tuned.  It could get a little closer.

When you head out, then be sure to put on the proper gear.  Take the hats, gloves, scarves, etc.  Also it’s good to dress in layers.  Not just one big puffy coat; but a shirt, a sweater, light jacket, and then the big coat.  The layers help to trap the body heat closer to you.  Air can get in under a big puffy coat by itself.  Also be sure to drip the faucets.  Even during the day.  You may have gotten away with it recently, but now with the temps in the single digits we are dealing with possible pipe-busting temps.  Bring in all pets.  Even big dogs will have a tough time handling this cold.  Finally, block the air from getting into your home.  Put a rag or towel by the door jambs and cracks in your home.  Close the drapes too, unless you are home during the day.  Then you may let the sun it to help warm things up a bit.  Close them at night though.

Stay warm and be safe out there.  Watch out for icy roads in the neighborhoods this morning.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tracking Snow Showers, Record Cold!

February 18th, 2015 at 6:36 pm by under Weather

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater and I have been tracking a cold front moving from west to east across Virginia all afternoon. Scattered rain and snow showers have developed along and behind the front. The snow will be moving in between 6-10 tonight, so this is a very short window, because it is a quick moving front.

Future Trak at 8 PM

Future Trak at 8 PM

At first, it should be a wet snow, but then should transition to a drier snow as colder air rushes in behind the front. Winds will pick up out of the northwest behind the front at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35mph. So visibilities will be reduced if you are driving and the snow is blowing. Temperatures will plummet into the teens by Thursday morning and it will feel even colder when you factor in the wind. Remember to drip the faucets before heading to bed tonight and over the next few nights, since we should be below freezing for at least the next 48 hours. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for the entire region late tonight through Friday afternoon. Wind chill values will hover between -5° and 5° by early tomorrow morning. The graphic below shows the temperatures in white and wind chill values in blue for 7 AM Thursday. Thank goodness most kids are off from school, so they don’t have to wait outside for the bus in this cold weather.

Temperatures/Wind Chills Thursday AM

Temperatures/Wind Chills Thursday AM

Highs Thursday afternoon will only rise into the upper teens to around 20°. When you factor in the wind, it will feel more like the single digits and teens most of the day.

Thursday Temps. vs. Wind Chill

Thursday Temps. vs. Wind Chill

The record low for Thursday morning is 14° set back in 1903. We will be close with temperatures hovering in the mid teens. The record for the lowest high temperature tomorrow (or coldest February 19th) is 30°, which was set back in 1993. We will likely shatter that record with highs only around 20°. Friday will be even COLDER! Lows in the single digits and highs in the upper teens. This will be the coldest weather since January 19, 1994.

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have another update coming up on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Icy Roads, Brief Snow, & The Coldest Blast!

February 18th, 2015 at 8:14 am by under Weather

Today we are not Hampton Roads.  We are icy roads.  There was a bit of melt yesterday during the afternoon, but it was minimal.  Then everything refroze last night.  So there is going to be a minefield of different ice on the roads this morning.

Patches Of Different Ice

Patches Of Different Ice

Another problem that has developed are ice piles.  When I left for work this morning the roads were ok.  However, the main road outside of my neighborhood had been plowed overnight.  This piled up the snow along the entrance, and then it refroze.

Ice Pile Ups

Ice Pile Ups

So there was basically an ice hump that I tried to get through.  I tried to run through it (not too fast), but the snow piled up under my car.  So luckily a gentleman stopped to help me out on his way home.  Thank you very much Ben Litman.  He had a couple of shovels, and apparently had helped other folks through the night.

Temperatures were in the teens and 20s this morning along with mixed cloud cover.  We should see a fair amount of sunshine for the late morning and early afternoon, but clouds are expected to increase.  High temperatures will aim for the mid-upper 30s in North Carolina, low-mid 30s in the metro, and low 30s north of the metro.  IF we can get more sunshine in here between 11am and 3pm (prime heating time), then we may be able to get a fair amount of melting.  If the clouds roll in sooner, then we won’t see as much.

We will stay dry today, but by tonight a cold front will move in from the west.  The front has been causing lots of snow showers to our west this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This is headed our way, but the models don’t show as much snow for us.  It should become a thin line of rain/snow showers by this evening.  Between about 7 and 10pm we’ll see that line move through the region.  Temps will be dropping from the low 30s to the 20s during that time.

Future Trak (7pm tonight)

Future Trak (7pm tonight)

The moisture should be pretty limited in our region, but we can expect a quick dusting up to a half an inch of snow.  This will be on top of what is out there.  If there is a little rain at the beginning, then this could cause some more glazing on already treated roads.  After 10pm we’ll clear out, and temps will drop.  We’ll bottom out in the teens tonight.  High pressure will settle in tomorrow.  This will give us a lot of sunshine, but highs will only be in the low 20s.  THEN on Thursday night we’ll see mostly clear skies.  Temps will drop to the single digits.  Wind chills will be near zero or in the negatives.  After that we’ll only warm up to the upper teens on Friday.  This will be one of the coldest high temperatures that we’ll have seen since 1994.  This information comes from the National Weather Service.  Here is a direct quote from their forecast discussion this morning:

"THE LAST TIME NORFOLK HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE TEENS
WAS JAN 19 1994...13 DEGS F."

So this will be some serious stuff.  It's been a while since we've broken a record low.  We'll see lows between 5 and 10 degrees both Friday and Saturday morning.
the record low for Friday is 13 degrees set back in 1896.  So we'll likely break that record.  Highs will be in the teens to near 20 both Thursday and Friday.  We should be dry.
On Saturday into Sunday we'll have an area of low pressure develop to our west.  This should allow for southerly winds and a warmup.  Highs will be in the upper 30s Saturday, then
upper 40s on Sunday.  We'll have some rain move in during Saturday evening into Sunday. We'll have more on this forecast this evening.  Until then...think warm thoughts. 
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Black Ice, More Snow, RECORD COLD!

February 17th, 2015 at 6:17 pm by under Weather

Mother Nature doesn’t want to give us a break! Luckily the sun came out this afternoon and helped to melt some of the snow and ice, but not much. Many spots didn’t even make it above freezing. Any slush or standing water will re-freeze again overnight, so there is potential for black ice and regular ice overnight into tomorrow morning. Temperatures will hover in the 20s all night long, so watch out for slick spots, especially on bridges and overpasses. Keep in mind that just because some roads were in good condition this afternoon doesn’t mean they will be in good condition overnight. Reduce your speed and stay off the roads if possible. Secondary roads are still snow covered for the most part.

Black Ice Possible Overnight

Black Ice Likely Overnight

We should see more sunshine tomorrow and high temperatures should rise above freezing for at least a few hours in most locations. That should allow a little bit more of the snow and ice to melt, but not much. A very strong cold front will swing into the region Wednesday night and bring a chance for scattered snow showers. The snow will be light and short-lived. Our Future Trak computer model has scattered light snow between 6-10 PM on Wednesday.

Future Trak at 7 PM Wednesday

Future Trak at 7 PM Wednesday

This is going to be a quick moving front, so little to no accumulation is expected. Any snow that we see will just add to the snow already on the ground. The bigger story will be the RECORD COLD on tap for Hampton Roads Thursday and Friday. I made this graphic comparing the record highs and lows for Thursday and Friday to our forecast numbers. The light blue bars represent our forecast numbers and the dark blue bars represent the record values.

Record Cold!

Record Cold!

***The last time the Norfolk Airport had a high temperatures in the teens was back on January 19, 1994. The high temperature that day was 13°. That is 21 years ago! Wow! Make sure you are prepared for this upcoming cold weather.

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Snow Is Wrapping Up. How’d We Do?

February 17th, 2015 at 10:17 am by under Weather

“HEY JEREMYYYYY….I HEARD SUCH AND SUCH SAY THAT WERE WERE GOING TO GET 8-12 INCHES.  IS THAT TRUE True trueeee…?”  I then wake up from my nightmare where a ton of armchair and network forecasters had called for snowmageddon in Hampton Roads with a possible foot of snow in the metro area.  Now I’m not saying that I nailed this event, but I will say that anyone that called for 8-12″ in Virginia Beach was way off.  Here was my forecast from yesterday:

Yesterday's Snow Forecast

Yesterday’s Snow Forecast

I started increasing the totals to the north as the models started trending upward there.  There was also talk in the forecast discussions that the snow-water ratio was going to be more than 10 to 1.  Then it started snowing ahead of schedule yesterday. Tthat got me thinking that we might have to start increasing the amounts even more.  It snowed for a long period of time, but I didn’t see a lot of reports of really heavy/wet snow.  Not like the models were showing anyway.  It did look heavy on the radar at times.  A lot of the heaviest snow fell when people were probably sleeping.  Here was the view at 3:30am this morning:

Radar This Morning

Radar This Morning

Blue is snow.  Dark blue is moderate to heavy snow.  Pink is a mix, and green/yellow are rain.  I’ve gathered some snow reports, and tried to make a map of what fell.  It’s not exact, but it’s a good average for the region.

Actual Snowfall

Actual Snowfall

I did see one report of 11″ up towards Richmond, but otherwise the highest amounts were around 7″.  The mix zone was well forecast by our computer models yesterday.  That was expected to affect the Southside and northeast North Carolina.  So that took down the amounts in Virginia Beach, southeast Chesapeake, and Currituck.  The highest amounts were from James City County up to Richmond.  Don, my weather watcher in Toano, had 7″ of snow.  Jan in Reedville had 6″.  Pam in Gloucester had 4″.  She’s near the courthouse.  Doris on the lower Eastern Shore had 5″.  Henry in Denbigh (Newport News) had 5″.  We had about 3-4″ on the north end of Virginia Beach, but Donna in Blackwater (south end) had less than 3″.  A lot of that was from the melting overnight.  This system did have a good amount of moisture, but perhaps some of it got robbed by the initial dry air.  After all dew points yesterday were in the negatives.  Otherwise it’s hard to determine why there wasn’t more north of Hampton Roads.  I will try to analyze things some more to see if anything sticks out.

I will say that there were some great photos taken from folks.  Here was one from Gerald at the Virginia Beach Oceanfront:

Snow At The Oceanfront

Snow At The Oceanfront

It’s not often that you see palm trees and snow at the same time, but there you go.  Here was another photo from Portsmouth.  It shows the partially frozen Elizabeth River:

Snow Near The Elizabeth River

Snow Near The Elizabeth River

Meteorologist Ashley Baylor brought up a good point.  Be sure to tell the kids not to walk on the ice over any rivers or creeks.  They will likely fall through.  We have had some cold air, but the ice is not able to support the weight of a human…or animal, at this time.  The snow/mix has tapered off this morning. We’ll see drier conditions for the rest of the day, but we will still have a lot of clouds.  Temperatures will only rise to the upper 20s to low 30s.  So there won’t be any melting unless the sun can come out.  Winds will be out of the north at 10-15mph.  That will put the wind chills in the teens for most of the day.  So any kids playing outside will likely need some hot chocolate when they come back in to warm up.

Tonight we’ll see partly cloudy skies. Lows will drop to the teens and 20s.  With the snow on the ground we’ll probably be colder than forecast.  So possibly some low teens in the region.  A lot of the snow on the roads have been compacted.  So we’ll likely have ice mixed with some patchy black ice tonight.  Drip the faucets tonight if you haven’t already.  Actually, you may have to do that for a while.

Tomorrow we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds.  Highs will get a chance to warm to just above freezing. So we should get some melting later in the day.  (operative word “some”).  Then late in the day another strong cold front will move into the region. We will see some flurries ahead of it.  Then there will be one broken band of rain and snow in the evening.  This will provide us with a little more snow, but it won’t be anything like today.  Maybe a dusting in some spots.  Of course this will fall on top of snow that is already on the ground.  Hopefully, it won’t be enough to make the roads worse.  So we’ll monitor that feature for updates.  Behind the front we’ll see some of the coldest air that we’ll have seen in decades.  At least according to the National Weather Service.  Highs will only be in the 20s or near 20.  It’s possible that we may see highs in the teens.  That is what is rare around here.  I thought we had a time or two in the last 10 years that I’ve been here, but I’m not sure.  Either way, get ready for the deep freeze….again!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


It’s a Bit Ruff Out There

February 17th, 2015 at 7:13 am by under Weather
Courtesy: Donna Sipes

Courtesy: Donna Sipes

So the weather is a bit ruff….err rough out there!  This picture is a bit blurry because that pug ran as fast as his little legs could carry him through the snow!

Courtesy: Deborah Cochrane

Courtesy: Deborah Cochrane

And clearly Princess Phoebe knows how to dress for the snow!  Thank you to everyone who sent in snowfall totals, pictures, and videos!  If you want to send us your snowy pictures, feel free to email us at REPORTIT@WAVY.COM

The snow started around 3 PM on Monday and we are almost out of the woods!  Most cities/towns across Hampton Roads picked up 4-7″ of snow overnight.  Around 1 AM, the snow started to transition over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain, so that compacted the snow and made it really heavy!

Snowfall Totals

Snowfall Totals

If you do have to travel, just make sure you completely clear off your car, including the roof – it can be a disaster for the driver behind you if a sheet of snow goes flying off your car.

As this storm pulls away, the snow, sleet, and freezing rain will taper off over the next couple of hours.

Future Trak Tuesday Morning

Future Trak Tuesday Morning

For the rest of the day, we will be tracking mainly cloudy skies with temperatures only topping out in the upper-20s to low-30s.

This won’t be the only chance we have for snow this week – I can’t rule out some passing flurries or snow showers Wednesday night.  Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will have a more in depth blog a little later on..

Until then..

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor

 


Enough To Shut Us Down, But Not The Big One

February 17th, 2015 at 1:19 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

The opportunities for further big snowfall are rapidly dwindling. For most of us, we’ll still see some sleet…changing back over to snow…but the amounts should not add up to too much more than we’ve already gotten.

I have revised the forecast snowfall amounts downward throughout the region for the most part. It is a significant snowfall for our part of the world…certainly enough to close schools, etc. for Tuesday…but for the vast majority of us, I don’t see any significant accumulation added to what we’ve already gotten.

Additionally, the sleet has been knocking down the existing snow cover. There could be an hour or two of light rain over the south side Hampton Roads Cities; that would knock the snow cover down to just a little slush.1889039_1099616370065285_3075772450993985539_o