We have some warmer temperatures building into the forecast over the next few days. In fact there will only be one day in the next 8 days that I would call cool. Today will not be that day. This morning was great with beautiful sunshine and temps in the 40s and 50s.
Meanwhile there was a good amount of rain to our west from parts of the Midwest down to the deep south.
The rain will stay west of us this morning, but a few showers will sneak in this afternoon. It’s a slight chance in the mid afternoon with a better chance by the early evening. The good news is that temps will be soaring. We’ll see highs in the 70s for much of the area. Outside of the few rain showers, it will be a nice day.
By this evening we’ll see a higher chance for rain. Lows will be mild in the upper 50s. Oh heck… That’s warm not mild. Winds today and tonight will be south at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph. Tomorrow we’ll see scattered to occasional rain showers. During the afternoon an area of low pressure will move into the region along a stalled out front. We’ll be in the warm sector. So highs will be near 70 once again. During the afternoon and evening we have a chance for thunderstorms.
Now there may be some severe storms tomorrow, but it’s not a done deal just yet. Part of the area is in a slight risk for severe, but I’m sure that the outline will change. So I haven’t included it here. Here is the link to the Storm Prediction Center: SPC. The area of low pressure will move very close to us. When it gets into central Virginia, then typically bad things happen. Also, it will be fairly warm outside and the humidity will increase. Dew points will rise to the mid 50s. Upper level winds will be pretty strong. So those are some things in favor of strong/severe storms. The main threat would be strong gusty winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out (within the entire region). However, there will be some things working against sever. For one, we do expect a lot of clouds and on-and-off rain showers. So there shouldn’t be a lot of instability. Also if the low tracks a little closer to the Appalachians then that is better than if it tracks closer to southeast Virginia. That has to do with the amount of helicity or spin in the atmosphere. Also while the humidity will increase, it won’t be that high. Dew points in the 50s are not that impressive in terms of severe, unless you have super strong upper level winds to go with it. So basically the chance for severe weather will hinge off of the exact track of the low, and whether or not we get the sun to break out for a while. Either way I do expect rain and storms tomorrow in the region. It will likely impact the Tides game. At this time I still have a decent chance for rain during game-time. Here is what Future Trak looks like at 3pm tomorrow:
Future Trak (3pm Sat)
I go back and forth for the rain chances at game time. For now I put it between 40% and 60%. Both of which are decent chances. I do think the rain will be more scattered than what our model shows. So maybe we can get a few dry spots.
The rain will continue Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some models keep the rain going longer now. So I’ve been trending it later Sunday. For now I have rain through the mid-morning. Either way it will be cooler with highs in the low/mid 50s. The good news is that we won’t have a mega cool down as we go into next week (for once). Instead we will warm up again. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s for probably all next week. Things look dry through at least Thursday. Too bad we can’t fast-forward the weather a bit.
Have a good weekend. Try to enjoy the warm temperatures when you can. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will be in tomorrow morning talking about that chance for severe weather based off of the low track and amount of sunshine. Try to catch him if you have plans.
One last thing. In yesterday’s blog there was a good link/article about the Outer Banks and sea-level rise. It is a great article and very detailed. I welcome you to read it if you hadn’t already. Here is the link: Outer Banks Seas.
Have a good weekend!
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler