Weather

Almost A Repeat

April 2nd, 2014 at 8:32 am by under Weather

As advertised…yesterday had some mixed temperatures.  There was a big difference between the inland and coastal cities.

Highs Yesterday

Highs Yesterday

I don’t believe that it made it up to 74 in Kill Devil Hills, but I’m checking on that.  Regardless, today we’ll see similar weather.  Highs will be just a bit warmer.  We’ll see temps near 60 along the shore, mid-upper 60s in the metro, and it will warm to the mid-upper 70s inland.

Today's High Temps

Today’s High Temps

During the afternoon we’ll see the sea breeze kick-in along with a wind shift line.  Winds will be variable at 5-10mph, but will be more easterly during the afternoon.  So some temperatures near the shore will cool down to the mid 50s.  We’ll be dry again today.  Then tomorrow the wind-shift/trough will push back north.  This will give us some spotty showers during the afternoon.  For now I’ve kept the chance for rain at 20%, but I may have to raise it.  Highs will be a little warmer, but will be fairly mixed again.  On Friday we’ll have a different setup.  Winds will be strong out of the south.  They’ll be strong enough to stop the sea-breeze.  Therefore highs will be in the upper 70s across much of the region.  We’ll probably see some 80s inland.  On Saturday a cold front will move through early.  This will give us a few showers into the early morning, and then we’ll dry out.  Highs will be in the upper 60s Saturday.  We’ll be dry and cool on Sunday. Highs will be in the mid 50s.

A big area of low pressure will develop over the Midwest next Monday.  It will move through northern Virginia.  This will give us a better chance for rain along with some thunderstorms.  A few showers could linger on into Tuesday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Mixed Temps

April 1st, 2014 at 9:34 am by under Weather

Today will be a quiet weather day, but it won’t be a simple forecast.  Temperatures will be tricky.  One easy thing is that the winds have died down.  Yesterday an area of low pressure lingered offshore from the northeast states as high pressure was building into our region from the west.  This created the strong northwest wind.

High Pressure & Sunshine

High Pressure & Sunshine

Today the high will sit right on top of us.  This will make for fair skies and light winds.  The wind will be light and easterly at times, but overall the direction will vary.  As we get into the midday hours the air temperatures will quickly warm to the 50s and 60s.  Remember though that the water temperatures are really cool for this time of year.  They are still in the 40s.  Even some of the nearby ocean temperatures.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.cf.gif

Sea Surface Temperatures

This will be a good setup for a sea breeze to form.  This is a common occurrence, but today it will be more amplified.  When the warm air over land heats up, it rises.  Meanwhile, the cooler water temperatures keep the air cool above it, and this promotes sinking.  The sinking air has to go somewhere.  So it spreads out over the water and onto land.

Sea Breeze

Sea Breeze

The cooler air moves inland and can travel anywhere from 10 city blocks up to 20 miles depending on the local winds and the temperature difference.   So this setup will let our inland temps warm to the low 70s while temps along the shore will likely be in the upper 50s.

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Temperatures

This is our model, but it does show the general outline.  I think Virginia Beach will be in the upper 50s.  Norfolk and Newport News in the 60s.  I do think Williamsburg will make it to the low 70s.

By tomorrow the winds should be more out of the south.  It still won’t be a strong wind, but it may be enough to stop the sea breeze from forming.  Highs will generally be in the 70s with 60s near the shore.  We’ll see highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday with dry conditions.  Rain showers are expected on Saturday, but at least it still looks warm.  Another cool down will approach into Sunday, but at least this time it looks dry unlike last weekend.

They say if you don’t like the weather in Hampton Roads, then just wait 10 minutes…It will change.  Well today if you don’t like the temperature, then just drive 10 minutes west or east.  You’ll find something you like.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


What’s That Yellow Orb?

March 31st, 2014 at 8:14 am by under Weather

As meteorologist Tiffany Savona correctly indicated in her previous blog/forecast…. there is a large yellow orb in the sky today, and it isn’t a UFO.  The sun has come out after hiding all weekend.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

The forecast is very easy for once.  After some clouds along the coast this morning we’ll see lots of sunshine today with highs near 60.  Winds have been breezy this morning with northwest winds at 10-20mph and gusts up to 30mph near the shore.  The winds will taper off this afternoon as high pressure builds in.  We’ll see dry conditions and highs in the 60s and 70s for the next few days.  The next chance for rain will be late Friday.  It may even hold off until Friday night.  I’m ready for a nice stretch of dry/mild weather.

In national news there is a new report from the United Nations today.  There is another part of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report which has just been released.  It is making headlines across the country.  Here is the article from Reuters: U.N. report.  The report is probably very hard to believe after this year’s Winter in the Midwest and Northeast states.

Lately the snow has melted over a large area.  Especially in the Midwest.

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201403/nsm_depth_2014033105_National.jpg

snow cover across the U.S. from NOAA

I haven’t seen large reports of flooding, although there is still snow in the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast.  Has the Midwest dodged a flood bullet?  There’s still a lot of snow across northern Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan.  So we’ll see how they fare over the next month.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Who Is Ready For The Sunshine?

March 30th, 2014 at 8:32 pm by under Weather

After a rainy and gloomy weekend, I think we are all in need of some sunshine.

View of out Tower Cam 10 today

View of out Tower Cam 10 Earlier Today

There was severe weather across North Carolina last night. A tornado was reported near Garner, south of Raleigh, around 9 PM last night.  This tornado was confirmed by the National Weather Service and rated an EF-0 with estimated maximum sustained winds of 80mph. Minor damage was reported.

Last Night's Storm Reports

Last Night’s Storm Reports

We did not see severe weather, but we did see a decent amount of rain, especially north of the metro. Over the past 48 hours, many locations picked up at least 0.5 inches of rain with many spots seeing over 1 inch. Pam in Gloucester reported having just over 2 inches in her rain gauge.

48-Hour Rain Totals

48-Hour Rain Totals

Where does this put us for the month of March? Many spots have picked up between 2-4 inches for the month, which is above average for some and below average for others.

Departure From Average for March

Departure From Average for March

The rain will slowly come to an end from west to east tonight as an area of low pressure slowly pushes away from us. Scattered showers will be possible until midnight. Our Future Trak shows most of the rain ending by 12 AM.

Future Trak at 12 AM

Future Trak at 12 AM

Lows will drop into the upper 30s to around 40° overnight. It will feel even colder with a northwest breeze at 10-20mph gusting up to 30mph at times. Since winds are blowing from the northwest, we could see Sound Side flooding along the Outer Banks early tomorrow morning. High tide is around 8:30 AM. Water levels could rise between 2-3 feet above normal along the Outer Banks. Over wash is also possible along Highway 12 from Buxton to the Oregon Inlet.

Clouds will clear out from west to east overnight. Expect a few clouds around in the morning, especially for coastal areas. Coastal clouds will quickly clear out, giving way to lots of sunshine on your Monday. Highs will be around 60°, but winds will still be breezy out of the north at 10-20mph. Computer models have the warm weather sticking around for a while. Could this be the end of the cold weather? I certainly hope so!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Tornado Watch Tonight, Plus Rainy and Cooler on Sunday

March 29th, 2014 at 9:01 pm by under Weather

First, let’s talk about the Tornado Watch that has been issued for Northampton County, Bertie County and Hertford County until 1 AM Sunday.

Tornado Watch

Tornado Watch In Effect Until 1 AM Sunday

This watch doesn’t include any counties in Virginia. The severe weather threat is very low for the rest of the area. I am tracking a cluster of severe storms near Raleigh that is moving northeast. These storms are feeding off of some instability across central North Carolina. The hi-res models show this cluster moving into Virginia closer to midnight, but I think it will be weaker by then. Stay tuned!

It has been a soggy Saturday across Hampton Roads, but at least it was warm outside. High temperatures were in the 60s and 70s. More rain is possible tomorrow, but it will be much cooler. Rain will be scattered on and off during the day tomorrow. We may see a few light showers early Sunday morning, but there are slightly better chances during the afternoon.

Future Trak at 12 PM

Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday

Here is Future Trak at 5 PM.

Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday

Best chances for rain tomorrow will be north of the metro, closer to the area of low pressure. Rain shouldn’t be as heavy or as widespread as earlier today. Once the cold front moves in tomorrow morning, temperatures will begin to fall. We will likely see our high temperature around 60° shortly after midnight. It will be mild in the morning and chilly in the afternoon with a strong westerly breeze blowing at 10-20mph.

Falling Temperatures Tomorrow

Falling Temperatures Tomorrow

Thankfully the cooler weather will be short-lived, as the warmer weather will return by early next week. I will have a full update on tonight’s severe weather threat coming up on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


A Rainy Weekend

March 29th, 2014 at 9:32 am by under Weather

We have a large area of low pressure that is going to bring us rain for today and tomorrow. The good news is that we won’t have the high chances for the severe weather today as I was thinking in last nights blog. Clouds and scattered showers are expected will keep us cooler in our area versus down to the south. Strong storms are possible in South Carolina and Georgia.

Storm System Bringing Us Rain

Storm System Bringing Us Rain

Today we are in the “warm sector” which is the area ahead of the cold front. That front is going to pass by tonight which will drop our temperatures for Sunday.

Future Trak @ 2pm

Future Trak @ 2pm

Scattered showers are expected this morning and all of the way in to tomorrow.

Future Trak @ 6am Sunday

Future Trak @ 6am Sunday

We’ll see light rain and drizzle for just about all day tomorrow. It will also be colder with temperatures in the 40s for most of the day. Starting on Monday an area of high pressure will move in which should keep us dry all of next week.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

 


Rain & Maybe Stormy This Weekend

March 28th, 2014 at 5:40 pm by under Weather

Here is a quick evening update regarding tomorrow’s storms. The Storm Prediction Center has included the Southside cities and NE N.C. in a Slight Risk for strong storms tomorrow. The latest models have pulled back the chances for strong storms a little bit and are trending to keep the storms to our west.

Future Trak @ 7am

Future Trak @ 7am

It looks like heavy rain is going to move in tonight and tomorrow morning across the Tidewater area. Temperatures will be mild with lows tonight near 55. Tomorrow we could see our highs near 70 degrees again. If we get some clearing late in the morning and in to the afternoon, that may provide enough fuel for strong storms in the evening. Once again, the latest models are keeping the clearing to our west and the storms towards Raleigh and Danville in the afternoon/evening.

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

You can see where the thunderstorms are more likely, heavier rain totals are expected. Don Slater will be tracking the new models that come in tonight during our evening newscasts, and I will be in tomorrow morning to give you the latest.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Warmer/Wetter Start To The Weekend!

March 28th, 2014 at 8:28 am by under Weather

We have some warmer temperatures building into the forecast over the next few days.  In fact there will only be one day in the next 8 days that I would call cool.  Today will not be that day.  This morning was great with beautiful sunshine and temps in the 40s and 50s.

Nice Morning

Nice Morning

Meanwhile there was a good amount of rain to our west from parts of the Midwest down to the deep south.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The rain will stay west of us this morning, but a few showers will sneak in this afternoon.  It’s a slight chance in the mid afternoon with a better chance by the early evening.  The good news is that temps will be soaring.  We’ll see highs in the 70s for much of the area.  Outside of the few rain showers, it will be a nice day.

By this evening we’ll see a higher chance for rain.  Lows will be mild in the upper 50s.  Oh heck…  That’s warm not mild.  Winds today and tonight will be south at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph. Tomorrow we’ll see scattered to occasional rain showers.  During the afternoon an area of low pressure will move into the region along a stalled out front.  We’ll be in the warm sector.  So highs will be near 70 once again.  During the afternoon and evening we have a chance for thunderstorms.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Now there may be some severe storms tomorrow, but it’s not a done deal just yet.  Part of the area is in a slight risk for severe, but I’m sure that the outline will change.  So I haven’t included it here.  Here is the link to the Storm Prediction Center: SPC. The area of low pressure will move very close to us.  When it gets into central Virginia, then typically bad things happen.  Also, it will be fairly warm outside and the humidity will increase.  Dew points will rise to the mid 50s.  Upper level winds will be pretty strong.  So those are some things in favor of strong/severe storms.  The main threat would be strong gusty winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out (within the entire region).  However, there will be some things working against sever.  For one, we do expect a lot of clouds and on-and-off rain showers.  So there shouldn’t be a lot of instability.  Also if the low tracks a little closer to the Appalachians then that is better than if it tracks closer to southeast Virginia.  That has to do with the amount of helicity or spin in the atmosphere.  Also while the humidity will increase, it won’t be that high.  Dew points in the 50s are not that impressive in terms of severe, unless you have super strong upper level winds to go with it.  So basically the chance for severe weather will hinge off of the exact track of the low, and whether or not we get the sun to break out for a while.  Either way I do expect rain and storms tomorrow in the region.  It will likely impact the Tides game.  At this time I still have a decent chance for rain during game-time.  Here is what Future Trak looks like at 3pm tomorrow:

Future Trak (3pm Sat)

Future Trak (3pm Sat)

I go back and forth for the rain chances at game time.  For now I put it between 40% and 60%.  Both of which are decent chances.  I do think the rain will be more scattered than what our model shows. So maybe we can get a few dry spots.

The rain will continue Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Some models keep the rain going longer now.  So I’ve been trending it later Sunday.  For now I have rain through the mid-morning. Either way it will be cooler with highs in the low/mid 50s.  The good news is that we won’t have a mega cool down as we go into next week (for once).  Instead we will warm up again.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s for probably all next week.  Things look dry through at least Thursday.  Too bad we can’t fast-forward the weather a bit.

Have a good weekend.  Try to enjoy the warm temperatures when you can.  Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will be in tomorrow morning talking about that chance for severe weather  based off of the low track and amount of sunshine.  Try to catch him if you have plans.

One last thing.  In yesterday’s blog there was a good link/article about the Outer Banks and sea-level rise.  It is a great article and very detailed.  I welcome you to read it if you hadn’t already.  Here is the link: Outer Banks Seas.

Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Much Quieter…How About Warmer? Plus… OBX Coast.

March 27th, 2014 at 8:46 am by under Weather

Things have really quieted down since yesterday.  The nor’easter is long gone now. Even for the northeast states. It was a monster storm that had the strength and winds of a hurricane.  Heavy snow and powerful winds buffeted the northeast U.S. coast.  Here’s an article with more information about the storm.  Nor’easter

Speaking of hurricanes.  I found another article about how the Hurricane Hunters are getting some new equipment this year to help with their communications during hurricane season. (Hurricane Hunters get new equipment).

Locally, we saw some strong winds yesterday, but then they died down last night.  The clear skies and light winds allowed temperatures to drop to the 20s in many inland locations.  As we go through the day, high pressure will provide for ample sunshine.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Winds will be east/southeast at about 10mph.  Temperatures will rise into the low/mid 50s.  With the lesser wind and full sun it will feel much warmer today even though it won’t be super warm just yet.   Clouds will increase tonight.  Winds will be southerly.  So we aren’t looking as cold as this morning.  Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Tomorrow the wind will be out of the south at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.  We’ll have partly cloudy skies.  So high temperatures are aiming for around 70 degrees.  Late in the day some rain showers will approach from the west.  This will give us a chance for rain, but mostly for the evening.  Not so much during the day.

Future Trak (5pm Friday)

Future Trak (5pm Friday)

The rain will continue on and off into Saturday.  At this point I have a 40% chance for rain during the Tides game versus the Baltimore Orioles.  I’ve lowered the chance since earlier this morning.  It was at 60%.  I’m hoping the rain will shift inland a bit.  For now, here’s what Future Trak shows for game time:

Future Trak Saturday PM

Future Trak Saturday PM

Highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70.  We’ll cool down on Sunday.  After a few early morning showers we’ll dry out.  Highs will be in the 50s.  We are still looking warm next week.  Highs will be in the 60s Monday through at least Wednesday.

One last note before I go…. I found an interesting article about sea-level rise and how the Outer Banks is dealing with it.  This a lengthy article that talks about the local science and politics of it from newsobserver.com: Seal level rise and the Outer Banks

Whether you’re a local or a vacationer, I encourage you to read.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Nor’easter Heads Northeast

March 26th, 2014 at 8:57 am by under Weather

The blog title wasn’t meant to be funny, but I guess it might have produced a chuckle or two.  Anyway, yesterday we had a mess out there with rain and snow and dropping temperatures.  As predicted we had a dusting in many areas, but it was coming down pretty good for a while from the Peninsula northward.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

A lot of the snow melted between last night and this morning.  However, Accomack county had about 2-3″ of snow.  So the public schools had to cancel today due to the road conditions.  This photo was sent in by Dan and Connie which shows some of the conditions up there:

Snow In Accomack County

Snow In Accomack County

Today the nor’easter has pushed up towards Boston.  It is causing some bad blizzard conditions up there.

Nor'easter Hits The Northeast

Nor’easter Hits The Northeast

Along with heavy snow, I saw a wind gust to 69mph up in Nantucket, MA.  They may see some gusts to hurricane force today.  That’s incredible!  Meanwhile around here, high pressure is building in from the west.  Between the building high and the departing low we’ll see strong winds from the northwest.  Winds will gust up to 35-40mph near the shore.  We’ll see a lot of sunshine, but highs will only be in the low 40s.  Wind chills will be in the 20s and 30s through the afternoon.  By tonight the wind will settle down.  With clear skies and dry air this will let the temperatures drop to the 20s in most locations.  There will be some 30s near the shore.  Bring in the potted plants again if you haven’t already.  You also may want to bring the pets in for the night.  Especially the little Chihuahuas.

The record low for tonight is 23 degrees (1955).  I doubt we’ll get that low in Norfolk, but it will be well below the average low of 43.

Tomorrow will be quiet with highs near 50.  We’ll see warmer temperatures (70s) Friday and Saturday.  There will be a chance for rain from Friday evening through Saturday.  We may even see some thunderstorms on Saturday.  As I mentioned before….the long term looks pretty mild/warm compared to the recent wintry temperatures.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler