Weather

Nice Monday Ahead. Does Thunder Mean Snow?

January 19th, 2015 at 7:32 am by under Weather

I almost wasn’t going to write a blog this morning.  Meteorologist Tiffany Savona wrote a good one last night about yesterday’s rain and a little about the upcoming forecast.  So I’m just adding a couple of small details.  For instance… We picked up 0.94″ of rain at Norfolk International Airport yesterday.  This gives us 2.6″ of rain for the month/year.  This is 0.6″ above the rainfall average. It has been very wet lately.  In fact, despite the cold weather my grass seems like it is actually trying to grow already ???

Anyway, we started this morning with a weak disturbance over the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore.  There were a few sprinkles there and probably a few sleet pellets.

Sat/Rad This Morning

Sat/Rad This Morning

My weather watcher, Doris, mentioned that her husband saw some icy patches as he went out.  Her temperature in Machipongo was 32 degrees, but then rose to 34.  Other than that the area saw partly cloudy skies and dry weather.  High pressure will build in today.  So we’ll have mostly sunny skies for much of the day.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Highs will be in the low 50s.  We’ll see some pretty nice weather today and tomorrow.  On Wednesday we’ll see a weak system bring some spotty showers to the area.  The timing has been changing for that.  Before it looked like it would be late Wednesday.  Now it looks to come in early.  I put the rain chance at 20-30%.  So it won’t be anything like yesterday.  We’ll be dry and cooler for Thursday.  Friday into Saturday there still will be a system to our south.  A couple of days ago it looked like this system would bring us some mixed/wintry weather to parts of North Carolina (at least).  The latest models keep most of the precipitation to our south if not all of it.  The latest GFS model (as I write this) has Hatteras, NC on the edge of some heavy rain now. It came in with a slightly warmer scenario.  We have to keep an eye on this as there will probably be some pretty cold air in place in Hampton Roads.  For now all the models keep Hampton Roads dry.  As per usual….stay tuned for updates.

We had thunder in the region yesterday.  The rule of thumb this time of year is that if you hear thunder, then you’ll (usually) see snow within the next 10 days.  Though that isn’t always the case.  I’d say it’s the case about 7 times out of 10.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Here Comes The Sun!

January 18th, 2015 at 9:17 pm by under Weather

The rain has ended and the sun will be out in full force tomorrow! Heavy rain fell across Hampton Roads earlier today and some thunderstorms even managed to develop in some areas. There were reports of some localized street flooding, but the rain drained rather quickly. Rain totals were impressive. Most locations saw at least 1 inch of rain as expected.

Today's Rain Totals

Today’s Rain Totals

Today's Rain Totals

Today’s Rain Totals

Once the heavy rain moved offshore, the sun came for a few hours before the clouds moved back in from the west. Check out this great shot from Tower Cam 10 this afternoon!

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Drier air will filter in overnight and the clouds should clear out by tomorrow morning as low drop into the mid to upper 30s. A much nicer day is on tap for MLK Day tomorrow. We will see lots of sunshine with highs in the lower 50s. Great weather for any local events, parades or marches. The weather will stay dry until Wednesday. A few light rain showers may develop Wednesday as a cold front moves across the region. Colder air will move in by the end of the week and highs will drop to around 40° Thursday and Friday.

The forecast gets complicated by Friday. We are watching an area of low pressure that will develop to our south late Thursday into Friday. Right now, most of the computer models keep the rain south of us.

Future Trak on Friday

Future Trak on Friday

But a couple of previous model runs brought the precipitation into Hampton Roads and it should be cold enough to at least get a rain/snow mix. We have Friday dry for now, but that could change. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Warm/Soaking Sunday. Any Snow Soon?

January 18th, 2015 at 8:13 am by under Weather

Well the temperatures this morning were great.  We had a little sunshine near the coast while rain moved in from the west.

Rain Moving In

Rain Moving In

Rain will pick up through the morning and will last through about the mid-afternoon. The rain is enhanced today for a couple of reasons.  First, there is an upper level disturbance moving in from the west.  Secondly, there is a stationary front running right through Hampton Roads.  It was already in the 50s east of the front with some low 40s towards Williamsburg.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Winds have been breezy out of the south.  Some of the gusts have been over 25mph near the coast.  This has let a lot of moisture move into the region.  We’ll keep warming up for a bit.  I put many highs up to near 60 today with cooler temps north and west of the metro.  Temps will drop a by by the mid afternoon.  Rain will be heavy at times today.  In fact we could see some localized flooding this afternoon.  By this evening we’ll be drying out.  We’ll drop to the mid 30s tonight with some low 30s inland.  Tomorrow there will be a lot of sunshine for Martin Luther King day.  It will be cooler, but not too bad.  Highs will be near 50.  We’ll be dry for Tuesday as well, but a few showers will try to move in on Wednesday.  If those showers linger into the evening, then that could wrap up as a few flurries. Stay tuned.

There is still a system that could impact us next Friday.  The models are in a lot of disagreement about it at this time.  An area of low pressure is expected to form well to our south. Some models have us on the edge of the precipitation.   Some have it all staying south.  Cold air will be in place.  So this one bears watching.  We’ll refine the forecast over the next couple of days.  Still plenty of time for the models to come together.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Rainy Sunday

January 17th, 2015 at 8:44 pm by under Weather

It was a sunny start to the weekend, but that will change tomorrow. Rain will push into Hampton Roads after midnight tonight as an area of low pressure develops across the Carolinas. This area of low pressure will move northward and bring a steady rain to the region tomorrow morning through the early afternoon. Rain could be heavy at times as the moisture values increase. Here is what the latest Future Trak has at 8 AM. Don’t forget the umbrella if you plan on going to a morning church service!

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

Notice that most of the rain is located across our western zones. At this time, temperatures will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s, so it won’t be too chilly in the morning. The rain shifts eastward as a wind shift line moves from west to east. Winds should range from 10-20mph, but there could be higher gusts once the wind shift line moves through your neighborhood. The yellow and orange colors indicate heavy rain, so that will be a threat also. Heaviest rain should fall between 10AM-12 PM. Watch out for localized street flooding.

Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday

Then we will see a break in the rain and some of the clouds will thin out, so we may see some sunshine tomorrow afternoon. The actual cold front/arrival of the dry air won’t move in until later in the afternoon. So we may see a few hit or miss light showers between 3-6 PM as the front clears the area.

Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday

Rain totals should range from 0.5-1 inch. Some inland spots could see higher totals because the rain will move into our westernmost counties first.

Rain Totals Forecast

Rain Totals Forecast

Highs will be in the mid 50s tomorrow. Drier air will move in Sunday night and highs on Monday will drop into the upper 40s, which is seasonable this time of year.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Up And Down Weekend… Plus Football & Cold?

January 16th, 2015 at 8:39 am by under Weather

I’ll admit…Up and down is pretty vague.  In this case it pertains to temperatures and rainfall.  Let’s back up and start with what happened last night. We had a few scattered showers in the region.  They moved through between about 10pm and 3 am.  Then we had some clearing.  The clearing let the temperatures cool by sunrise. This led to some fog in the region.  Inland temperatures were around the freezing mark.  So there may have been some freezing fog in a few locations.  That does happen sometimes in this region.  High pressure is building into the area.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This will give us a lot of sunshine from start to finish.  Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.  This should allow temperatures to rise to near 50 degrees.  That’s not a heat wave, but it will be a nice change from the last few days.  It won’t last long though.  Notice there is a cold front on the above map.  This front will move through tonight from the north.  It will move through as a dry front.  So no precipitation is expected.  That’s pretty common for fronts that are lined up west-east and move due south.  They just don’t get a chance for moisture to pool up from the south.  So tomorrow we’ll still have sunshine, but high temps will only be near 40 degrees. Winds will be northeast at 10-15mph.

By Sunday the winds will change again.  Southerly winds will allow temps to rise to the mid 50s.  However, moisture WILL be able to rise back into the area this time.  So we have a pretty high chance for rain.  This is forecast from the early morning hours until the mid afternoon.  Here is Future Trak at noon on Sunday:

Future Trak (Noon Sun.)

Future Trak (Noon Sun.)

Rain may be heavy at times. Then it is forecast to move out between 3 and 5 pm, but don’t treat that as a hard time just yet.  It could change, so stay tuned.  We’ll be fairly mild and dry on Monday and Tuesday.  Highs will be in the 50s.  Then another quick system will bring us a few more showers on Wednesday.

Ok that’s it.  We’re all wrapped up and I can go home…. right????     Ok there is that one thing that folks are wondering about. (Possible snow the following weekend).  Some of the models are forecasting an area of low pressure to form offshore Friday into Saturday.  This time it will be a stronger low.  High pressure to the north will keep the cold air in place.  Now the amount of moisture that works northward is still in question.  It is very early in the game.  Just note that the models are hinting at possible snow at this point.  The ground temperatures have really dropped over the last week due to the recent ice and wintry weather.  However, they may warm back up a bit this week as most of the highs will be in the 50s during the daytime.  We’ll see.

Finally… Football weather?  I found this neat article about how cold weather affects football players.  While it talks a little about that.  It’s even more interesting to see how some of them deal with it.  Cayenne pepper?  Here’s the article: Football and cold.

Ok.  Now I’m done.  Oh…P.S.  Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson is leaving our station.  His last day is Saturday.  He is heading back up to Minnesota which is where he is from.  I wish him well.  He is a great meteorologist and a good friend.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Black Ice, Flurries, & Still Cold

January 15th, 2015 at 8:14 am by under Weather

While the main system that brought us the wintry weather has moved out of the region.  Some lingering moisture and a weak mid-level disturbance created some light snow this morning.  Flurries were falling from Gloucester through the Peninsula down to Suffolk.  It had already passed over cities like Wakefield, Franklin, and Ivor.  There was a dusting on some decks and cars, but most of it melted on the roads.   Here was a photo from one viewer in Ivor:

Light Snow In Ivor, VA

Light Snow In Ivor, VA

That was sent in by Joanne Hickman.  For a while the snow wasn’t showing up on radar.  By the late morning the radar finally picked up on it.

Light Snow On Radar

Light Snow On Radar

The area was drying  up as I typed the blog.  Black ice was also a problem in our inland areas.  Temperatures hovered near the freezing mark in many places that had the icy mess yesterday.  So there were several delays this morning, and that was a good call.  As we go through the day we’ll steadily warm up to near 40 or the low 40s.  As mentioned, the area of low pressure is long gone, but high pressure is not building into the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

That’s why we’ll probably see a lot of the clouds continue, but at least the precipitation will shut down. I believe there will be some clearing through midday, especially compared to yesterday.  Winds will be light and northwest.  Later today the clouds will re-build into the region.  I’m even calling for a stray shower by the early evening.  Our model has another pocket of energy coming in during the overnight.  So we may catch a few spotty showers with some sleet after midnight.  Surface temperatures should be above freezing at that time.  So we shouldn’t see any problems.  We’ll clear out by early tomorrow morning. That’s when temps will drop to near freezing again.  We’ll be dry all tomorrow into Saturday. Highs will be in the 40s.  Then on Sunday a warm/southerly flow will pump some more moisture into Hampton Roads.  This will bring us a good chance for rain again.  At least we’ll warm up in the 50s.  We’ll cool down and dry out again early next week .

Thanks again to all that sent in reports this morning. It really helped to track the precipitation.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Frozen Roads Not Likely To Be A Problem

January 14th, 2015 at 10:16 pm by under Uncategorized, Weather

The last of the light rain moved off by around 6:30 PM. Temperatures have not dropped significantly (or at all!) through the region. So there’s not a good likelihood of wet roads re-freezing. Additionally, the wind is still blowing from the north at about 10 to 15 mph. That wind also helps to dry out the roads.

Here’s a look back at what we predicted for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. That general area of freezing rain was of greatest concern. For the most part, that area of freezing rain was correct. However, we did get a little more than expected (~.25″) for the Middle peninsula. Basically though, the forecast was pretty good.

zSpecial_full

Here’s a map of the actual reported amounts through the region. It’s from here:

24HR_Mixed_Precip_Jan14_2015


Rain’s Gone…

January 14th, 2015 at 10:12 pm by under Uncategorized, Weather

The last of the light rain moved off by around 6:30 PM. Temperatures have not dropped significantly (or at all!) through the region. So there’s not a good likelihood of wet roads re-freezing. Additionally, the wind is still blowing from the north at about 10 to 15 mph. That wind also helps to dry out the roads.

Here’s a look back at what we predicted for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. That general area of freezing rain was of greatest concern. For the most part, that area of freezing rain was correct. However, we did get a little more than expected (~.25″) for the Middle peninsula. Basically though, the forecast was pretty good.

zSpecial_full

Here’s a map of the actual reported amounts through the region. It’s from here:

24HR_Mixed_Precip_Jan14_2015


Slow Melting Mix

January 14th, 2015 at 9:18 am by under Weather

Things are improving across the area.  We had a lot of sleet and freezing rain in our inland sections. Some of it accumulated on tree branches.  Then the branches broke and fell onto power lines.

Tree On House

Tree On House

This picture was from the Carter family in Ware Neck, Gloucester county.  Here was the radar from earlier this morning.  (Pink is the wintry mix, green/yellow are rain).  Blue is snow or a mix of snow/sleet in this case:

Radar (4 AM)

Radar (4 AM)

Then as the morning went on the wintry mix started to change into scattered rain showers.  Temperatures were inching upward.  Many cities in the metro started out near freezing or just above.  By 8am many temperatures were in the mid 30s.  It was still in the low 30s in places like Wakefield and Franklin.  Many places had a glaze over elevated surfaces and walkways.  Then there were some cities that had iciness on the roads.  Luckily many of the ground temperatures have been in the 40s lately.  This REALLY helped our region.  If they were in the 30s, then we would have had ice across most of the big roads.  The area of low pressure offshore, that has been causing a lot of this mess, is beginning to move to the north/northeast.   High pressure was basically sitting still over the Great Lakes region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This is forcing our winds out of the north today.  They will run at 10-20mph.  We’ll see a few gusts to 25mph.  Between the winds and the clouds, temperatures will be stuck in the 30s with only a few 40s from Virginia Beach southward.  Scattered showers will continue into the afternoon as the low slowly drifts offshore to the north.

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

by tonight the low will be far enough away to end the rain chances.  However, we’ll still have lots of clouds.  Lows will be in the low 30s.

Now I’m hoping that we get a few hours of dry weather to dry out the roads.  If the rain shuts off in the early evening and the winds stay up, then we’ll probably dry out.  However, if the rain lingers into the late evening, then we could see a problem with water re-freezing on the roads.  That would give us some scattered black ice tomorrow morning.  I’m optimistic for now, but this will have to be monitored through the afternoon.  Our Future Tak model has the showers moving out by about 7pm.  Stay tuned for updates.

We’ll be mostly dry tomorrow.  A weak mid-level disturbance may bring a stray shower to the region late in the day.  Otherwise we’ll see quiet weather. Highs will be in the low 40s.  We’ll warm a bit going into the weekend.  Then on Sunday we’ll see highs in the 50s, but the models have gotten wetter. So we could see rain for most of the day.  We’ll be cooler and dry early next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Wintry Mix: 6 AM Update

January 14th, 2015 at 5:59 am by under Weather

Jeremy and I have been getting mixed reports from across our area. Mostly inland locations are seeing ice on cars, trees, decks, and possibly on the roads/ground.

Radar @ 5:40am

Radar @ 5:40am

That purple zone is mostly freezing rain and sleet. These areas have seen temperatures at or below the freezing mark all night. Our temperatures will start to warm up to the mid-30s by noon and highs will climb to the upper 30s this afternoon.

Icy Deck

Icy Deck

This first wave of precipitation will taper off this morning. We will still see scattered showers into the afternoon, but as our temperatures warm, we will get a break from the freezing rain.

We will be on air until 9 am with weather and traffic updates every 10 minutes.

Quick Links:

http://www.511virginia.org/

http://www.ncdot.gov/travel/511/

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson