Weather

Cool Pocket Departing Soon

August 15th, 2014 at 8:33 am by under Weather

Brrrr!  Yep it’s August and parts of the Midwest are cold.  Not cool, not a bit chilly, but cold.  Lows this morning were in the upper 30s over parts of Michigan and Wisconsin.  It’s no joke.  Now locally we had low temps in the 60s mostly.  If we kept mostly clear skies this morning, then we might have seen some more 50s.  But a small pocket of clouds did move through early.  It is already pushing out, and overall the day is looking good.  Skies will be partly sunny with high pressure in the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is a stationary front to our south.  A weak area of low pressure will form along that today and will nudge the front northward.  This will create a few spotty showers over northeast North Carolina this afternoon. Tonight into tomorrow morning we’ll see a few showers in the region, but overall skies will be partly cloudy over the next 24 hours.  We’ll have fair skies on Sunday, however,  the heat and humidity will build in quickly.  So let’s look at the weather pattern causing this big change.

Today there is a rather large trough in the Midwest down to the Mid Atlantic.  This is bordering the cooler/colder airmass.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

The trough would normally produce some thunderstorms in the region, but the air at the surface is very dry.  So only isolated showers in the region are forecast for today (northeast North Carolina).  Highs will be in the 70s in the Midwest with low 80s around here.  Tomorrow the trough will lift north a bit.  Winds will be light out of the southeast.  This will allow for some warming in the region.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  By Sunday the trough will push back up to the Canadian border.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

So as the trough lifts,  the heat will be allowed to spill east into the Mid Atlantic and the Southeast.  Locally our high temperatures will rise to the low 90s.  Humidity will also increase.  Highs will stay in the low 90s through Wednesday.  There may even be some mid 90s in the region.  We haven’t seen Norfolk hit 90 degrees or more since July 23rd.  That’s when we hit 91 degrees.

Things are getting set up for the ECSC this weekend.  The main events will happen next week into next weekend.  I don’t think we’ll see too much surf this weekend for warmups and practices.  Perhaps we’ll get some waves building next week.  The finals are next weekend, so I’ll cross my fingers for the surfers.  The Atlantic is quiet for now.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tracking Nothing And Loving It

August 14th, 2014 at 8:28 am by under Weather

Yep… It’s true.  I’m tracking nothing today.  (Sorry boss!)  No tropical systems, no thunderstorms, no meteorites.  Nothing.  Well, I guess you could argue that I’m tracking cooler weather.  Ok…You got me.  This morning temperatures were in the upper 50s to low 60s in our inland locations.  It was still in the 70s right near the shore.  Today we have a large area of high pressure in the region.  We’ll see lots of sunshine and it will be super dry outside.

Regional Dew Points

Regional Dew Points

The air is dry all the way down to Georgia and South Carolina.  Incredible.  Highs will be in the low/mid 80s and there will be a light north/northwest breeze.  It will feel like a little taste of early Fall.  Tonight we’ll have a few clouds and lows in the 60s.  Highs will be in the low 80s tomorrow.  However, we’ll heat up on Sunday to near 90.  We’ll be in the 90s also early next week.

In International News, Australia has downgraded the chance for El Nino forming this year.  This according to Bloomberg.com: Less Chance For El Nino.  This could really impact the west which is in great need of rain.  Especially California.  According “The Desert Sun”, 82% of the state is in either extreme (level 4 of 5) or exceptional (level 5) drought.  Here’s the story.  California Drought/Heat.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Drying Out Today

August 13th, 2014 at 8:48 am by under Weather

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona did a great blog last night about the flooding and storms from yesterday.  So I’ll just do a quick update to do more on the forecast for today.  Yesterday a warm front and ample humidity helped to create a lot of the rain in the region.  It wasn’t everywhere though.  There was heavy rain over the Middle Peninisula, lower Eastern Shore, and southern Outer Banks.  However, places in between had much less.  Take a look:

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

Today a cold front is moving through the region from the west.  This may kick off an isolated shower this morning, but the window of opportunity is closing.

Satellite/Radar/Fronts

Satellite/Radar/Fronts

Even though there is a cold front moving through, we won’t really cool down today.  The sun will pop out (it has already).  So this will still allow temperatures to heat up to the mid 80s  The good news is that the dry air will gradually push in.  So we will go from dew points near 70 to dew points to near 60 by the end of the day.  Winds will be northwest at 5-10mph.

Other than a possible stray shower on Saturday, we are looking good for the next few days.  Highs will be in the 80s. Lows in the 60s and 70s.  The Atlantic is nice and quiet.  I think we could all use some quiet weather for a while.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Heavy Rain & Lots of Lightning

August 12th, 2014 at 11:33 pm by under Weather

Talk about a light show tonight! We had some strong storms move through the Middle Peninsula, Peninsula and Eastern Shore earlier this evening. We told you the activity would be scattered and it most certainly was. Some folks got nothing while others got hammered. The strongest storm moved across the Middle Peninsula around 6 PM. It was a slow mover, so it dumped a couple inches of rain in some spots in a short amount of time.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar at 6PM

Pam, our weather watcher in Gloucester Courthouse, received 1.75″ of rain tonight. Steve in Ware Neck, in Mathews County, saw over 2 inches of rain. This same storm continued to move east over the Chesapeake Bay. The storm intensified as it moved closer to the Eastern Shore.

Satellite/Radar at 8 PM

Satellite/Radar at 8 PM

I noticed some rotation with this storm as it was over the Chesapeake Bay around 8:12 PM, so there is a possibility there was a waterspout occurring at that time. When we see the red colors and the green colors touching, that means we are seeing rotation within the storm. Luckily, the rotation weakened as it moved closer to the Eastern Shore.

Rotation Over The Bay

Rotation Over The Bay

Heavy rain was the main threat tonight due to the high moisture content in the atmosphere and the slow movement of the storms. Here is a picture of the estimated rain totals across the region. It doesn’t have any numbers because I wanted to show where the heaviest rain fell. Most areas highlighted in green received between 1-3 inches of rain, while some spots saw more.

Radar Estimates

24- Hour Radar Estimates

Here is a picture of the street flooding across the Eastern Shore tonight. Jason send these photos into reportit@wavy.com

Cape Charles Street Flooding

Cape Charles Street Flooding

Cape Charles Street Flooding

Cape Charles Street Flooding

Folks that did not see the heavy rain saw a light show tonight with that strong storm over the Chesapeake Bay. I even captured a few lightning strikes on Tower Cam 10.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Check out this awesome picture sent in from Dan of the lightning at Croatan Beach.

Croatan Lightning

Croatan Lightning

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue overnight, but the severe weather threat is winding down. We may see a few showers develop along the front tomorrow morning. Once the front moves in, drier air will move into the area. It will still be warm with highs in the mid 80s. The humidity will really drop by Thursday and Friday as highs will only reach the lower 80s. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will have the latest forecast coming up on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 AM.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Showers & Storms Likely Today

August 12th, 2014 at 9:09 am by under Weather

A couple of things are working together to increase our rain chances today.  We have already had some scattered showers this morning.  It was rather heavy near Hatteras, NC to the Rodanthe area.

Radar This Morning

Radar This Morning

Along with ample moisture pooling into the region, we also have a warm front to our south.  The front will move into the region this afternoon.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Southeast winds will prevail.  They’ll run about 10-15mph.  We are expecting lots of clouds today.  Despite this, high temperatures are forecast to rise up to the mid 80s.  This should help to create a little instability in the atmosphere.  Also, there will be some upper level winds moving into the region that will be able to support some strong storms.  So because of this, part of our area is under a slight risk for severe weather.

Slight Risk For Severe

Slight Risk For Severe

The main threat will be strong straight-lined winds, but an isolated tornado is not out of the question.  Large hail and heavy rain will also be possible.  Don’t rule out of couple of strong storms south of the slight risk area.  Here is what our Future Trak computer model shows for 3pm:

Future Trak (3 PM)

Future Trak (3 PM)

Rain will continue into tonight and early tomorrow as a cold front pushes in from the west.  This front will keep the rain chances in for tomorrow morning, but the front and the rain should push east of us by midday.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

In fact the rain should push out by mid-morning Wednesday. We are looking at about a quarter to half inch of rain in general, but if you get under some of the downpours, then you will likely see over an inch of rain.  Once the front pushes through, then the winds will flip around to northwesterly.  They won’t be too strong, but eventually they will pull in some drier air.  Highs will still be warm though as sunshine breaks out during the afternoon.   So we’ll see mid 80s again.  On Thursday and Friday we are looking good.   We’ll have drier air moving in, and highs will be in the low 80s.  Lows will be in the 60s.  It will be more great weather.  For now things look good next weekend.  One model shows a couple of stray showers on Saturday, but it is a pretty low chance.  Stay tuned.

With the recent full moon and the persistent east-southeast winds, there has been some nuisance tidal flooding lately.  This will happen around midday today and midnight tonight, but it shouldn’t be too bad.  It should be between 3.75 ft and 4 ft at Sewell’s Point.  For reference, minor tidal flooding there starts at 4.5 ft.

I didn’t mention the tropics during the newscast, but that is because the chance for development has dropped.  There is still a small cluster of thunderstorms in the eastern Atlantic that may develop, but it is a small chance for now.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Hot & Cold….Wet too?

August 11th, 2014 at 8:17 am by under Weather

Yesterday was great.  I took advantage of the nice weather and took my family to one of the local water parks.  It’s been tough to fit in outdoor stuff lately with a lot of the cool and wet weather that we’ve had in the region.  Dog Days of Summer?  Hmph!  More like the fancy cat days of Summer.  In fact there has been some very polarized temperatures lately over much of the world.  Take a look at this image of temperature anomalies for July from NASA.

http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/84000/84150/namericalsta_tmo_2014215_lrg.jpg

North American Temperature Anomalies

Look at the spike in temps west and over central Canada with the large area of coolness over the rest of the U.S. and Canada.  Mexico was above average as well.  It was also unusually cool over western Europe, but very warm over eastern and northern Europe.

So our forecast is pretty mild as well.  There are no 90s in the 7 day forecast.  Today we could see some isolated showers.  Highs will be in the low/mid 80s.  Humidity won’t be too bad, but it is increasing.

Isolated Showers Today

Isolated Showers Today

Tomorrow we’ll see a higher chance for rain as both a warm and cold front approach from the west.  We haven’t had a lot of thunderstorms over the last few days.  (Though heavy rain fell Saturday over northeast North Carolina). Scattered storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Behind those systems we’ll see some more nice weather from Wednesday through the weekend.  Of course I’d check back on that part of the forecast.  Lately it’s been day by day.

Along with the skies, we’ll have to watch the waters today.  There is a high threat for rip currents at the local beaches.  The waters are churned up pretty good.  Waves will be running about 3ft and there is an onshore breeze.  So be careful if you are going down for a swim.  Remember if you are caught in a rip current, then swim parallel to the shore and then back in up or down the beach.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Supermoon, Higher Tides, More Rain Chances

August 10th, 2014 at 9:07 pm by under Weather

Tonight’s full moon is a supermoon, one of the five supermoons in 2014. A supermoon is when a new or full moon occurs at the same time the moon is at its closest point to Earth in its orbit. This supermoon in particular is the closest supermoon of the year, so it will appear bigger and brighter than all of the other full moons this year. On average, we see about 4-6 supermoons each year. The next and last supermoon of the year is on September 9th. Here is the view out of Tower Cam 10.

Supermoon Sunday

Supermoon Sunday

Tides are going to be higher than normal and lower than normal for the next few days. I put together this graphic showing the water levels for Sewells Point, which is a benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads. The threshold for minor tidal flooding occurs at 4.5 feet. Water levels should get close to 4 feet late tonight and during times of high tide tomorrow. When we see water levels get close to 4 feet, we can expect to see some nuisance tidal flooding.

Sewells Point Tides

Sewells Point Tides

Winds will increase out of the southeast tomorrow, so with an onshore wind and higher than normal tides, we are going to see a high risk for rip currents along the beaches tomorrow. Wave heights should range between 2-3+ feet. Moisture levels should also increase tomorrow, so we can’t rule out a few isolated showers, but many areas should miss out on the rain. Future Trak has a few rain showers developing around 12 PM.

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Any rain that develops tomorrow will be hit or miss. Rain chances really increase on Tuesday as our next storm system gets closer to us. The cold front will move in Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, rain chances will go away and we should cool back down into the lower 80s.

Tropics Update:

We are watching an area of showers and storms spinning south of the Cape Verde Islands, which is just west of the African coast. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a medium chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 5 days. Some computer models have it strengthening, as it moves west, and getting close to the Lesser Antilles by next weekend. This area of disturbed weather is still very far away, so we will have plenty of time to track it.

Invest 94 Tracks

Invest 94 Computer Model Tracks

Have a great work week!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Sunday’s Looking Dry For Most

August 9th, 2014 at 8:08 pm by under Weather

Some of us saw clouds today, while others saw rain. Some areas in North Carolina saw rain for most of the day! Check out these rain totals. Most of our Virginia counties missed out on the rain.

24-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

Areas that did see rain today could see patchy fog develop by tomorrow morning. Sunday’s forecast is looking drier.  With high pressure close by and the stationary front moving south into South Carolina, the best rain chances tomorrow will be well to the south of us, into South Carolina and Georgia. There will be a slight chance for an isolated shower, but most areas will stay dry tomorrow.

Sunday's Rain Chances

Sunday’s Rain Chances

I think we will start off with the clouds and then see a few more peeks of sunshine by tomorrow afternoon. High will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. If you plan on going to the beach tomorrow, keep in mind that there will be a moderate threat for rip currents. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Looking Good For the Weekend

August 9th, 2014 at 9:08 am by under Weather

This morning we woke up to a few showers across NE N.C., but across Virginia we had this view:

Sunny Morning

Sunny Morning

There has been a nice flow of dry air from the northeast for the past few days, that flow will continue today and tomorrow. It will keep us mostly dry across Hampton Roads.

Future Trak @ 3pm

Future Trak @ 3pm

As we warm up this afternoon, a popup shower may develop across Hampton Roads and areas to the north. I wouldn’t expect widespread showers, but more of a quick downpour. Highs will be near 80 today thanks to the sunshine and clouds. The ENE wind will keep places near the water in the 70s today.Tomorrow we will see passing clouds and sunshine. Highs should be near 78 tomorrow. I am thinking our next chance of widespread rain won’t come until Tuesday.

Surf Update

Our waves will be flat today from the lack of any swell in the region. We will see Easterly winds get stronger late tomorrow and Monday. That could bring in 2-4ft waves in by Tuesday. There may be a small window in the afternoon when the waves clean up.

Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


A Shifty Weekend?

August 8th, 2014 at 8:44 am by under Weather

The forecast over the last 24 hours has been very very….Shifty!  I’ve mentioned how the whole weather pattern has been frustrating for the past month or so.  When it comes to stationary or slow moving fronts this time of year, the models have a difficult time determining where the convection (thunderstorms) will form.  Case in point….this weekend.  Today is easy.  High pressure is in control.  Partly cloudy with highs in the 80s and a light northeast breeze.  Done!

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

By Saturday the area of low pressure over Tennessee is forecast to move east/southeast along a drifting stationary front.  Now yesterday some of the computer models had it moving to about central Virginia/North Carolina.  It brought the front north up to just south of our area.  This created a scenario where flooding rain was possible for our region.  But!  I mentioned in yesterday’s blog that I had a low confidence in this as the models haven’t handled things well lately.  The rain is very dependent on where the front and low setup.  So… since just last night the models have trended south/southwest with the rainfall.  In fact some of them now call for a pretty dry forecast for Hampton Roads.  I am skeptical.  Officially, I’m calling for some spotty showers tomorrow morning with a 30% chance for scattered showers tomorrow afternoon.  Then a 50% chance for rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.  (It was up to 70-80% during that time). The latest forecast from the Weather Prediction Center (a branch of NOAA) puts the heavy rain over central and western Virginia/North Carolina for the whole weekend.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

NOAA Rain Forecast

Now we need to be careful.  With such a dramatic shift in the last 18 hours, it’s possible that it could shift back the other way.  Heavy rain is possible for at least some of our northeast North Carolina counties. There has already been a lot of rain there lately. So localized flooding is still possible for some cities to the southwest.   Stay tuned for updates.

The low will move slowly to the southeast into Tuesday.  So at least some scattered showers are possible through then.

The Atlantic ocean is quiet, but Hawaii is dealing with Iselle this morning in the Pacific.  Luckily it had weakened on satellite before landfall.  Also the Central Pacific Hurricane Center had downgraded the storm.  In fact the winds were brought down to 60mph as it moved over land.  That was good news.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

The island is experiencing some strong gusty winds and heavy rain, but I believe the overall impacts won’t be too bad.  There have been some trees down and power outages so far.  There may be some mudslides along the higher elevations though.  The storm will move away from the big island later this morning and will weaken as it moves west.  Now Julio is a strong hurricane. However, it is likely to weaken and move north of the islands.  So I don’t think it will have much of an impact on the region.  Outside of a few problems, many residents will be just fine despite two storms near the Hawaiian waters.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler