While I like to keep the blogs on a fun tone with an occasional joke.  Today is not that day.  A Nor’easter is forecast to develop southeast of our area and sit for 3-4 days.  With the high pressure area to the north we are going to get the usual squeeze play between the different pressures (pressure gradient force).  This will give us persistent winds out of the Northeast/East for several tidal cycles.  Winds will be running 15-30mph with higher gusts near the shore.  Here is the forecast map for Wednesday afternoon from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC):

A Coastal flood watch is up for all Atlantic/Bay coastal cities in the viewing area tomorrow through Thursday.  This could get extended into Friday.  Jon Cash showed a graphic with his latest thinking at midday as far as tidal flooding.  He mentioned that Hurricane Isabel produced a water rise of 7.9ft.  Severe flooding starts at about 7ft.  At the low threshold the water with this Nor’easter may rise up between 6-7ft.  At his higher threshold the water could rise above Isabel’s level (possibly).   Here is the latest forecast for the tide at Sewell’s Point from the National Weather Service.

The tallest black hump early Friday is what should grab your attention.  That’s about 7.2ft.  Now I guarantee you this forecast will change.  It is based off of a lot of factors (wind, tides, surge, etc.).  According to Jon Cash the Ash Wednesday Storm produced a water rise of 9ft.  We probably won’t see that, but there has been a lot of coastal development since then.  We will probably see a lot of beach erosion along the Outer Banks. 

  On top of the tides and winds we will also have to deal with the rainfall.  Here is the forecast for rain totals from HPC for Tuesday through Friday:

Several inches of rain are forecast for Southeast Virginia.  We could see a possible 5-7 inches across parts of Northeast North Carolina.  If the track of the low changes, then these numbers will shift around.  A Flood Watch is posted, due to rainfall, for most of the viewing area through Thursday.  So this rain could also aid in the flooding.  The rivers could discharge a little more into the Chesapeake Bay and add to the tidal flooding a little. 

So let’s sum up some things.  We are expecting a Nor’easter to interact with an area of high pressure and bring at least moderate-severe tidal flooding to the region.  Rain from the system could create some flooding away from the waterways.  This is not as definite as the tidal flooding.  Winds will be gusting between 40-50mph near the coast.  Gusts could be 30-45mph inland.  The main reason that there will be a problem is due to the blocking nature of the storm.  It will sit relatively in the same region for several days.  The persistent winds stack up the water in the bay and produce a lot of wave action along the coast. 

With the leaves falling off the trees gutters may become clogged and add to the problem.  So please clean them out if there is one near your home.  Also, remove lawn furniture from the yard and put it in the garage.  Garbage cans too.  Now’s a good time to review your flood insurance policy in case the worst happens.  Stay tuned to the forecasts as there will be changes in the details.  Overall though, the models are agreeing that this will be a significant event.  Be safe everyone.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Imagine three days of rain heavy at times and very windy conditions…especially near the coast. While inland winds will barely reach 30 mph, winds along the coast could easily gust between 45-50 mph for several days. This will lead to a massive build-up of water that will only get worse with each tidal high cycle starting tomorrow morning. While the exact height of the tidal flooding is still questionable over the next several days…the potential exists for tidal flooding that could come close to what we experienced with Hurricane Isabel in 2003. It will depend on the winds speeds off shore. If the winds hit 55-60 mph offshore…for several days…the flooding could even be a bit worse…while if the winds remain between 40-45 mph…the flooding will be about a foot below what we experienced during Isabel. You might remember or have heard about the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962. That storm lasted three days (sound familiar?) and brought winds over 60mph offshore. The water was one foot higher with that storm than with Isabel! This will have to watched very, very closely! Property damage could be very high if those offshore winds get over 50 mph for that length of time. Weaker dunes could be destroyed and the ocean could invade inland spots…especially along portions of the Outer Banks.

Jon Cash

The set up Wednesday through Friday looks very ugly! A strong high pressure to the north of the area pumping in strong winds…and then add onto that the remnants of Ida stalling out east of the Georgia coast…pumping in wind as well. It’s a perfect set up for a rather large, long noreaster for the local area. Winds of 20-30 inland…30-40 in the metro and 40-50 on the coast and down on the Outer Banks. Not a big deal if it lasted 10 or 12 hours…some minor tidal flooding and rain. Not this time! This pattern stalls out bring these terrible conditions for 72 hours…leading to more significant coastal flooding and possibly some homes perched too close to the ocean on the Outer Banks to fall in! This is is going to have to be watched…very carefully…
Meteorologist Jon Cash

Ida is pretty healthy right now.  With sustained winds of 105 mph as of the 6PM CDT update, Ida is a strong category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Tomorrow and Tuesday, Ida should start to weaken as it encounters more upper-level wind shear and moves into somewhat cooler waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Ida is expected to make landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida panhandle late Monday or early Tuesday.  No one really knows how strong the storm will be at that point.  Ida will be interesting to watch to say the least.  We’ll keep you posted.

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

Ida has cleared the region between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba.  It’s what I like to call threading the needle, even though there is over 100 miles between the 2.  It is now moving into the Gulf of Mexico as predicted.  Here’s the latest satellite:

It’s still looking healthy.  You can’t see an eye on this satellite, but you might be able to by tonight.  The storm is forecast to continue strengthening.  Here’s the latest info and forecast:

By Monday morning winds are forecast to approach 100mph.  It’s possible that it could reach category 3 status at that point.  Remember the cutoff between a cat 2 and a cat 3 is 111mph.  So far it has intensified stronger than the recent forecasts by a little bit.  By Monday, however, it will start to see stronger wind shear.  Also the sea surface temperatures will be much cooler.  Here is a link to a sea surface temperature chart that shows where the cutoff is for 80 degree water: Sea Surface Temps

This system may undergo robust intensification, and then may weaken dramatically between Tuesday and Wednesday.  The forecast is for Ida to turn more to the northeast/East in the 5 day forecast.  You can go to wavy.com and check out the latest updates.  Just follow this link: wavy/hurricane

Locally, another nice day. Lots of sun.  Highs near 70.  Ida may bring us some moisture late Tuesday into Wednesday.  A cold front will interact with that moisture to bring us scattered showers by midweek.  Maybe some heavy rain, but it is a little far out to base a forecast off of a tropical system.  They are finicky.  Enjoy the nice weather. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

After a chilly start this morning we are looking at a fantastic forecast today.  Highs will be in the mid 60s.  Sunshine the whole way through.  Then tomorrow highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  A great weekend for a change. 

 Ida has strengthened a little more. 

The latest winds were at 60mph.  The pressure is at 997mb.  More strengthening is forecast in the next 2 days.  Eventually Ida will become extratropical.  It will become broader and will interact with some cooler air.  The upper level winds will increase.  While this will increase the wind shear, that actually may not weaken the storm in this case.  As it becomes extratropical it may actually use these upper level winds to maintain its intensity.  Mid-latitude storms (non-tropical storms) do use the upper level winds as part of their energy source.  Plus, the pressure gradient between Ida and the high to the north could create a broad area of strong surface winds along the Gulf coast.  It will be interesting to watch.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Frost advisories have been issued for Virginia Beach, Currituck county, N.C., and Northampton County, VA.  (update: Portsmouth and Norfolk are included in the advisory). Freeze warnings are up everywhere else.  Bring in the sensitive pets and plants.  I used to have a dog in Illinois when I was young.  It was a beagle that lived outside in a dog house.  Even for most of the Winter.  That was pretty common where I lived.  That dog used to be fine in weather that we call cold here, but there were of course times that we had to bring him inside.  You probably won’t need to drip the faucets unless you have pipes that are exposed to the elements or near some thin walls.  Temperatures should only drop below the freezing mark for a couple of hours.  Plants, however, will be in trouble as the freeze will kill even the mightiest of pansies. 

  I won’t talk too much about Ida, but for now it is a strong tropical depression.  It will probably become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours as it has moved back over water.  It still has the potential to move towards Florida.  We’ll update more on that tomorrow.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Ida is over land and has been weakening.  It is a tropical storm now with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.  It was briefly a hurricane before making landfall this morning over eastern Nicaragua.  The storm is expected to keep moving on a general northward motion.  If it survives and goes back over water, then it may restrengthen.  The latest track from the National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov shows that Ida could thread the needle and pass between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba.  There is plenty of warm ocean water for the storm to feed off of, but the wind shear will be moderate.  The forecast will likely undergo some changes over the next 24 hours.  As Jon Cash mentioned in the previous blog, it’s even possible that we could even get some rain from the remnants of Ida.  That’s possible, but not likely.

  Locally, we have an offshore non-tropical low that is actually far away.  However, the low is expected to strengthen and increase our winds out of the North/Northwest.  (mostly over the water).  Winds near the shore may gust to over 30mph tonight into early tomorrow.  Then, the winds will die off Friday night.  That’s when the bottom drops out and temperatures area wide will drop to the 30s.  We’ll probably see widespread frost and a possible inland freeze. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

After a super-quiet hurricane season, hurricane Ida formed near the Central American coast early this morning. This is not unusual. Prime locations for late season storms are in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Carribean. Why? The jet stream drops south through the Fall season and tends to rip apart thunderstorms from centralizing around a central core or low pressure system. The Fall jet stream has not made it that far south as of yet and the water temps are still very warm…above 80 degrees…the temp your need for tropical system formation. Where is it going. It is moving inland now and whatever is left of it should eventually make it into the Gulf of Mexico later in the weekend or early next week. It’s way to early to tell if we could get some rain from that later next week…but stay tuned! Crazier things have happened…

Jon Cash

Ok…you’re right… all the doomsdayers out there kept saying:  “Something could still happen this hurricane season”.  “It’s not over”…  And so Ida was born this afternoon to prove that you can never count out mother nature too early.  This image is from the National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov .  Ida is a healthy tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.  The storm is expected to move northwest and affect Central America with some gusty winds and heavy rain.  Flooding and mudslides are the main threat from Ida.  If it survives and goes back over water, then it could reintensify before moving towards the Yucatan Peninsula.  It may shake things up a little down that way, but it has no bearing on our forecast. 

  Our local forecast is actually chilly.  Tomorrow we’ll see mid 60s (not too bad), but on Friday winds will be NNE at 15-25mph with higher gusts.  Temperatures will be in the low-mid 50s.  Futuretrak temps are even forecasting upper 40s at Norfolk Friday afternoon.  That may be a little too cold, but it will be a chilly November day. 

Finally, (just for fun) remember last year that we had snow in November.  Here’s the blog from last November about the event: http://blogs.wavy.com/2008/11/21/snow-in-november/ 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler