Weather

More 90s For Labor Day

August 31st, 2014 at 8:30 pm by under Weather

The heat and the humidity will return just in time for the unofficial end to summer (Labor Day). Norfolk International Airport reached 93 degrees today and it was the only 90 degree day this month! Most of August has been cooler than average with highs in the 70s and 80s.

August High Temperatures

August High Temperatures At Norfolk Airport

Highs on Labor Day will be in the low to mid 90s. When you factor in the humidity, it will feel more like 100 degrees. Make sure you and your family stay hydrated, especially if you are spending any time outside.  This heat can be dangerous. If you are outside for an extended period of time, take breaks by going into an air-conditioned room or by resting in the shade.

Labor Day Temperatures

Labor Day Temperatures

A good place to beat the heat will be the beach or the pool. Don’t forget the umbrella and the sunscreen! Rip current risk will be low, which is good news for swimmers. Wave heights should range from 2-3 feet in Virginia Beach and along the Outer Banks. An upper level area of high pressure kept us dry this weekend. This high will move east tomorrow and with all of the heat and humidity in place, there will be a chance for a few pop-up afternoon showers and storms. Rain could develop anytime after 3 PM and will be hit or miss. I think a lot of places will miss out on the rain. Our Future Trak computer model has a few showers/storms developing around 4 PM and continuing through around sunset.

Future Trak at 4 PM Monday

Future Trak at 4 PM Monday

I wouldn’t cancel any of your outdoor plans tomorrow because most of the day will be dry. Just have a back-up plan in case a storm develops near you. We are not expecting any severe weather, just typical summertime pop-up storms.

Tuesday is going to be the hottest day of the week with highs in the mid 90s, which is close to record levels. Record high on Tuesday (September 2) is 97 degrees set back in 1993. Average high is 83 degrees. Just when you thought fall was around the corner, the 90s make a comeback! A weak cold front will push into the region on Wednesday and bring us a better chance for rain and slightly cooler weather by the end of the week. Highs on Thursday and Friday will drop into the mid 80s.

Tropical Update:

We are watching a broad area of low pressure moving across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. This disturbance is expected to strengthen once it moves into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center is giving this area a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours and a 60% chance over the next 5 days. Most of the computer models track this disturbance into Mexico this week.

Invest 99

Invest 99

Stay safe in the heat and enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Dry For Labor Day Weekend

August 30th, 2014 at 8:43 am by under Weather

Our weather pattern is going to slowly change over the next three days. Starting today we will start to see a southeasterly wind. That breeze will bring back the humidity and heat. Highs will be near 86 degrees today with afternoon sunshine likely.

High Pressure In Control

High Pressure In Control

That area of high pressure is going to keep us with this southeast wind for the weekend. One thing that you will notice is going to be an increase in the humidity from the Atlantic Ocean. Also, do you see the line of thunderstorms and showers over Indiana through Missouri? That is part of a weak front that will move closer to us by Monday (Labor Day). By then high temperatures will climb back to the 90s and stay there for the majority of next week.

The tropics are going to remain quiet this weekend. That also means that the surf conditions will be smaller.

Surf Report

Surf Report

The risk for rip currents will be low today with 1-2ft waves at the Oceanfront. For the OBX, smaller waves will also be likely. We may see a new swell of waves move in late Sunday and Monday, but wave heights will still be mostly below 3ft.

Enjoy your Labor Day Weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Calming Ocean

August 29th, 2014 at 8:21 am by under Weather

The waves have been up recently.  Surfers have been having a great time, while swimmers have mostly watched from them from the beach.  The good news is that the waters will be calming today.   Cristobal is becoming post-tropical, and is moving very fast to the northeast.  I was amazed to see it moving earlier at 50mph and still holding together (somewhat).

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

That speed may be a record.  I will have to check.  Earlier as a hurricane it had winds of 80mph.  The winds won’t subside too much as an extratropical cyclone.  It may hit Iceland as a strong storm.  However, for us the local waters will be calming.  The waves will be decreasing today.  They’ll run about 2-3 ft with some 3-4 footers along the Outer Banks.  They should be decent swells like yesterday.  Here is the more detailed forecast from Surfline.com

In other weather….We had a few showers in the region since last night as the cold front slowly pushed south through the area.

Few Showers Earlier

Few Showers Earlier

The front will stall out to our south today.  North of the front, winds will be northeast at 5-10mph.  South of the front winds will vary.

Front Stalls Out

Front Stalls OutThis

Gosh!  How many times have I said that this Summer?  “The front will stall out”.  Hampton Roads has become the cold front graveyard this year, and frankly that stinks!  Anyway, today skies will be partly cloudy with a stray shower over northeast North Carolina.  With the northeast breeze it will be cooler near the shore and warmer inland. Highs will be near 80 at the shore, low 80s in the metro, and mid 80s inland and south.   Tonight the front will try to drift back north.   So we’ll see some isolated showers in the region.  Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Tomorrow skies will again be partly cloudy. However, the winds will be more out of the southeast.  The front will have pushed through, but a stray shower or storm is possible in the region.  I only  put the chance for rain at 10%.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s and humid.  Sunday looks good, but it will be even warmer. Highs will be in the upper 80s solid.  Then on Monday a weak mid-level disturbance will move into the region.  So scattered showers and a few storms are possible.  Highs will rise to near 90.  We expect much of the same for Tuesday.  That could impact the kids heading back to school in Virginia. (most of the North Carolina schools are already back).

The forecast looks good for the American Music Festival, the Outer Banks Pro, and the American Music Festival.  Have fun if you are going to one of those events.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Better Waves. Cool Front Moves In

August 28th, 2014 at 8:29 am by under Weather

Yesterday the waves were big, but very choppy.  It was tough for local surfers to fully enjoy the wave heights of 4-7 ft.  Today the waves should be cleaner.  The cause of the high waves, Cristobal, is actually moving farther away from the U.S.  It was north/northwest of Bermuda this morning by about 300 miles and it was moving very rapidly northeast.

Cristobal On Satellite

Cristobal On Satellite

Cristobal has sustained winds of 80mph, but it looked like it was expanding on the satellite.  By tomorrow it is forecast to make the transition to post-tropical as it wraps in some of the cooler air over the North Atlantic.  As the system moves away from us, it is transforming the local waves.

Waves This Morning

Waves This Morning

The waves were up this morning at about 3-6 ft.  They should drop about a foot or two by this afternoon.  As they decrease in height, they are also decreasing in chop.  So surfers will enjoy some nice sets today.  This is good news for the Outer Banks Pro surf competition over the Outer Banks. Here is the latest surf forecast from surfline.com.  The problem is for anyone wants to just swim in the water.  There will be a high threat for rip currents again at the local beaches.  Red flags will likely fly again at the oceanfront.  Luckily this should improve by the weekend for folks trying to get in a last minute vacation before school starts.

Outside of beach weather we have some pretty good conditions for today.  However, there is one caveat… A weak cool front will move through the region later today.  This may kick off a few isolated showers.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The wind will turn from out of the west to out of the north at about 10mph.   Highs will be in the low 80s north, mid 80s in the metro, and mid-upper 80s south.  Tomorrow the front will stall to our south.  We’ll have a nice northerly breeze at 10mph.  Highs will be in the low 80s with partly cloudy skies.  We may be mostly cloudy at times.  We’ll heat up over the weekend though.  Highs will rise to the upper 80s with a few 90s inland.  A stray shower is possible, but not likely.  The rain chances go up a little on Monday for Labor Day, but the showers look to be pretty hit-or-miss now.  So stay tuned if you have some outdoor plans that day.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Surfs Up, Fog Burns Off, Cristobal Stays Out

August 27th, 2014 at 8:57 am by under Weather

We started the day with some patchy thick fog, but most of that was outside of the metro.  When I say that the fog is going to “burn off”, it means that the atmosphere warms up enough to dry out and unsaturate the atmosphere.  So the fog doesn’t literally burn up, but it does require the temperature to warm.  After that goes away, then we are in store for another nice day.  High pressure will dominate the weather.  Skies will be mostly to partly sunny.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll still have a northeast breeze at 8-12 mph, but it won’t be too strong today.  High pressure will provide for nice weather today and tomorrow.  Highs will be in the low 80s today and mid 80s on Thursday.  A weak cool front will move into the region Thursday into Friday, but it shouldn’t bring any big changes to our weather.  It could kick off a stray shower in the region, but the chance is very low.

Hurricane Cristobal is over 400 miles west of Bermuda and is moving northward.  It has sustained winds of 80mph.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

Once again, it isn’t too impressive on satellite.  This time there is some dry air wrapping into the center.  This exposed the eastern side of the hurricane.  However, it looks like the thunderstorms are beginning to wrap back around the center.  The storm has sustained winds of 80mph.  It will continue with this intensity into the afternoon as it moves north or north/northeast.  By tomorrow it should be moving northeast and it is forecast to strengthen a bit more.

Cristobal Forecast

Cristobal Forecast

The hurricane will probably make the transition to extratropical by Friday afternoon.   While the system is expected to miss the United States (by far) and Bermuda, there will still be one impact.  Waves!  Today we are looking at some high waves in the region.  They will get up to 5-7 ft along the Outer Banks. Especially towards Hatteras.  They will run about 4-5 ft at Virginia Beach.  This is great news for surfers, but bad news for swimmers.  The rip current threat is high.  So many folks heading down to the beaches today will be greeted by red flags from the life guards.  That means that it is dangerous to swim in the water.  Usually folks won’t be able to go in above their waist on days like this.  So keep that in mind.  The waves will subside a bit tomorrow, but the rip current threat will likely stay up for one more day.  It should drop by the weekend. Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Biggest Waves on Wednesday

August 26th, 2014 at 5:56 pm by under Weather

Wave heights will increase even more tomorrow thanks to Hurricane Cristobal.

Wave Heights

Wave Heights on Wednesday at 3 PM

Wave heights should range from 4-5 feet at Virginia Beach and from 5-7 feet at the Outer Banks tomorrow. I think Cape Hatteras could see even higher waves ranging from 7-9 feet. Remember the risk for rip currents will be very high. That means the water will be extremely dangerous for swimmers. We will likely see red flags flying at the beaches tomorrow. Make sure you go to a beach with lifeguards, since the water will be rough. Surfers, winds will be blowing out of the northeast around 10-15mph along the coast. Cristobal will take a hard right turn on Thursday and move away from the East Coast, so the swell will begin to fade a little bit. Here are the forecast wave heights through Friday.

Wave Heights This Week

Wave Heights This Week

Wave heights should really drop down by the weekend and the threat for rip currents will drop too, which is good for all of the vacationers here for the Labor Day Weekend.

Here is the 5 PM update on Hurricane Cristobal. Maximum sustained winds are still at 75mph. The wind shear is starting to decrease, so Cristobal is looking like a healthier storm on satellite imagery. Cristobal is expected to strengthen even more tomorrow and on Thursday.

Hurricane Cristobal

Hurricane Cristobal – 5 PM Update

Our weather is going to remain quiet as high pressure remains in control. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 80s. The heat and humidity will return by the weekend.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Checking On Cristobal, Rip Currents Stick Around

August 26th, 2014 at 9:10 am by under Weather

Yesterday was nice but very breezy.   The northeast wind has kept up the surf, but that has also kept up the rip current threat at the local beaches.  We ran a great story about how this has been affecting businesses near the oceanfront.  Rip Currents & Business.   Today the wind won’t be quite as strong.  High pressure was building-in over the last couple of days, but now it sits on top of our region.  This will allow for nice weather in the area.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Skies will be mostly to partly sunny.  Temperatures will rise to the low 80s for most cities with a few upper 70s near the shore and a few mid 80s inland.  This niceness will continue into tomorrow, but the wind will be more out of the west.  So temperatures will heat up more into the mid 80s area-wide.  A weak front will move into the region Thursday into Friday, but it probably won’t have too much of an impact on our weather.  It may create a stray shower Friday night into early Saturday as it stalls out near the region.

Here’s the latest on hurricane Cristobal.  It has become an interesting storm, not in its fury, but by it’s randomness.  The past path has been wobbling quiet a bit.  The latest satellite doesn’t look anything like a hurricane.  It almost looks like 2 areas of disturbed weather.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

This may be a sign of weakening, but it’s a little early to tell.  There is an old frontal boundary out there.  So perhaps it is trying to interact with it.  The system is a minimal hurricane with  winds around 75mph.  It has finally picked up speed as it is moving north at 12mph.

Cristobal Forecast

Cristobal Forecast

The hurricane is forecast to move north/northeast over the next 48 hours.  It is also forecast to intensify with sustained winds of 90mph by early Thursday morning.  This will be fairly close to category 2 status (96mph).  The latest track looks like it will miss Bermuda.  However, they are likely to see some big waves.  They may see a few high wind gusts too.  The waves could be 10-15ft or higher there.  Meanwhile the waves will also travel west.  So we’ll see waves of 4-5ft near the Virginia coast tomorrow.  There may be some waves to 6-8 ft over the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Wave Forecast

Wave Forecast

This will keep the rip current threat high through Thursday.  However, by Thursday the system will be moving farther away.  So the waves will steadily decrease into the weekend.  Cristobal will head to the north Atlantic, and will become extratropical by that time.  There is a high confidence in it’s current track as many of the models are in good agreement.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

One last thing before I go.   The “Farmer’s Almanac” forecast is out for the upcoming Winter.  It is calling for another cold Winter for much of the U.S (snowy over much of it too).  Here’s the link with more info: Farmer’s Almanac Forecast.  I’ll try to give my forecast for the Winter sometime over the next month or two.  For now I do think it will be an early Fall and (maybe) an early Winter.  We’ll see.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Cristobal Monday Afternoon Update

August 25th, 2014 at 4:55 pm by under Weather

The National Hurricane Center is still keeping Tropical Storm Cristobal on a northerly track. The 5pm Update states that:

  • 60mph Winds
  • Storm Moving NNE at 5mph
  • Going to stay offshore of the USA for its entire track.
Credit: NASA GOES 13 Satellite

Credit: NASA GOES 13 Satellite

Latest Track

Latest Track

 

Surf Update:

Dangerous rip currents will exist tomorrow with waves around 3-5ft across the VB Oceanfront. Wave Heights will be similar for the OBX. For surfers, onshore winds will continue tomorrow which will keep waves choppy. Look at the full forecast:

Wave Forecast

Wave Forecast

Remember, with a large swell like this: “If in Doubt, Don’t Go Out” if you are new(er) to surfing or boogieboarding have your session with a buddy or a group of people and if you can near a life guard. Have Fun!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Hot, Cold, Rip, & Cristol Ball?

August 25th, 2014 at 9:08 am by under Weather

Relax!  I misspelled the name of the tropical system on purpose….Cristobal-Crystal Ball.  Get it?  There’s actually a big puzzle of weather across the country with rotating pieces across the board.  It’s very interesting actually.  Today we have a big area of high pressure in the region which is providing for nice weather and a persistent/cool northeast breeze.  In the central U.S. the same system is pumping in the heat.  So they are dealing with highs in the 90s and 100s there and out west.  The winds will be northeast at 10-20mph with a few higher gusts near the shore.  That breeze is creating some waves and a high threat for rip currents today.  High temperatures will be in the upper 70s with some 80s inland.  That is incredible for late August.  So the high pressure area will sit over the region during the next few days.  This will continue to produce nice weather and northeast breezes. It will also help to block Cristobal from moving northwest.

Areas Of High Pressure

Areas Of High Pressure

Right now Cristobal is just north of the Bahamas with sustained winds of 60mph.  Thunderstorms have fired up around the system, but they are stronger and more numerous to the south of the center.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

It is slowly moving northward.  Over the next 36 hours it is forecast to move more northeast in-between the two areas of high pressure.  The wind shear is forecast to weaken. So the system is expected to become a minimal hurricane by Wednesday morning.

Cristobal Forecast

Cristobal Forecast

Eventually the upper level winds will dip down and help carry the storm faster to the east/northeast.  The models are in pretty good agreement in keeping the storm far from the east coast.  There are only a couple of outliers that take it closer to the coast.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

There is a low confidence in the 2 models that do bring it closer to the U.S.  The European model (not shown) also keeps it offshore.  This model has had a lot of weight as it’s done well overall for the past couple of years.  The GFS model also keeps it well offshore (red line above).  I wouldn’t say that the forecast is not set in stone just yet, but the odds are good that it will follow the current forecast.

I don’t expect any impacts here in Hampton Roads from the storm other than a continuing high threat for rip currents.  The northeast winds will likely continue as the storm moves away from our region.  So we will see some nuisance type tidal flooding over the next few days as well.  The wind and the rain will stay well away from our region.  Bermuda may see some wind and higher waves, but the most likely path keeps the impacts minimal at this time.  Stay tuned for updates.  Remember the forecast has changed quite a bit over the last few days.  It’s still possible that Cristobal will have a couple of surprises.  One possibility is that the storm may stall out for a bit longer over its current waters.  Again…stay tuned.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tidal Flooding, Cooler Weather, Tropics Update

August 24th, 2014 at 8:41 pm by under Weather

As the title suggests, there is a lot to talk about in the weather department. Our strong northeast winds will continue tonight and so will the risk of nuisance tidal flooding. Tides will be running higher than normal tonight and tomorrow thanks to the persistent northeast winds and the new moon tomorrow night. If you saw nuisance tidal flooding this morning, you will definitely see it again tonight as water levels should rise even more. Here is the forecast for Sewells Point, which is a benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads and parts of the Peninsula, including Hampton and Newport News.

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Water levels will be rising in Yorktown and this could impact parts of York, Gloucester and Mathews Counties tonight. Here is the forecast.

Yorktown Water Levels

Yorktown Tide Forecast

Wind speeds should range from 5-10mph inland and from 10-15mph along the coast overnight. It will be a cool and breezy night with lows in the mid/upper 60s along the coast and lower 60s inland. You may even need the light jacket or sweater early Monday morning.

Forecast Lows Tonight

Forecast Lows Tonight

A ridge of high pressure will build in tomorrow and keep us dry for most of the week. The strong northeast winds will keep us on the cool side once again tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to around 80°. Average high temperature this time of year is 84°. With the higher than normal tides, there will also be a high risk for rip currents at the beaches and higher surf tomorrow. Wave heights should be between 3-4 feet. Even though we will see perfect beach weather tomorrow, the water will be dangerous to swimmers. Swim near a lifeguard if possible and if caught in a rip current, make sure you swim parallel to the shore until you can swim out of it.

Tropical Update:

Tropical Storm Cristobal is spinning over the Bahamas tonight. Cristobal is expected to slow down as it encounters weak steering currents Monday and Tuesday. This storm is expected to strengthen to a category 1 hurricane by Wednesday as it moves over warmer water and into an area with less wind shear.

Tropical Storm Cristobal

Tropical Storm Cristobal

The computer models are now in better agreement with the track staying out to sea. If you check yesterday’s blog, you can see the cone of uncertainty was touching North and South Carolina. Now, the cone has been shifted eastward as the models have trended more east with their solutions. I noticed this trend last night.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

A trough will move off the East Coast on Wednesday and help keep this storm out to sea. The only impacts that we will see here in Hampton Roads from Cristobal will be higher surf and a high threat for rip currents all week along. Right now it looks like the highest waves will be on Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona