As I typed yesterday’s blog the models had already started to transform. Yesterday morning it looked like the area of low pressure was going to pass just north of us, but instead it decided to form right over our region. Luckily it isn’t a strong low. It is fairly broad. But it did create a few thunderstorms last night. In fact there was one report of some small hail in Poquoson early this morning.
It was actually cool this morning. So for that to happen there must have been a much colder airmass aloft to create that instability. The low is steadily moving east. It will slowly push offshore through the early afternoon. The scattered rain showers will continue on the backside of the low.
The winds, however, haven’t been too bad so far. They are forecast to increase out of the northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph. Especially near the shore.
Temperatures will be held down to the low 60s today due to the clouds, wind, and rain. So be prepared for a chilly/windy day. Scattered showers will continue into the evening. The low will push farther northeast. The wind will stay up, but the rain will taper off overnight. Tomorrow the low will become a nor’easter-type storm for New York state up to Maine.
Clouds will hang around for a while in Hampton Roads. Then we’ll clear out later in the day. The wind will be north-northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph. So high temperatures will still be in the low/mid 60s. Since the wind will be out of the northwest I am not expecting tidal flooding. We aren’t looking at a lot of train either. I forecast a quarter inch up to an inch. Most should see the lesser amounts.
By Friday we’ll be forgetting this nasty weather as high pressure builds into the region. We’ll have fair skies and highs in the upper 60s. Maybe a few 70s by Sunday.
Meanwhile tropical depression number 9 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. It is likely to become tropical storm Hanna by later this morning or by the afternoon. It is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula mainly as a depression, but not initially.
The depression is not only forecast to survive its land-crossing. It is also forecast to drift east as a depression for a couple of days. It may interact with a cold front to the north, but if it stays south enough of the front, then it could gain strength again. The long-term GFS model had it going into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days. Stay tuned to see what this thing is going to do.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler