After a wonderful spring-like weekend, it is back to reality this week. It is still winter, which means we can still have cold spells. First check out the high temperatures recorded today.
Hopefully you were able to get out and enjoy the nice weather this weekend. It was a perfect day to open the windows and air out your house or apartment. Unfortunately, our cool down will begin tonight as our next cold front moves across the region. The cold front will move in just after midnight. Winds will increase out of the north and usher in cooler air for Monday. Highs tomorrow will only be in the lower 50s. 52° is the average high temperature this time of year. So it is not going to be that cold tomorrow, but it will FEEL much colder after seeing the 60s and 70s this weekend. Why are we going to see more cold weather this week? Well…the weather pattern is going to change once again.
Weather Pattern Change
We are going to see a large dip in the jet stream (trough) develop this week. That will allow cold Canadian air to move into the northeastern half of the country. So it is back to unseasonably cold weather for at least the next 5 days, if not more. Storm tracks follow the jet stream. With the cold air in place and a chance for precipitation every few days, we have rain and snow chances in the forecast this week.
We are watching an area of low pressure which is expected to develop off the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday. Monday will be dry and we could see a few rain showers Tuesday night, but most of the precipitation will arrive early Wednesday. Keep in mind that our Future Trak model has one of the wetter solutions out there. Temperatures should be just above freezing across the metro, but could be below 32° for our northern zones at 7 AM Wednesday.
Future Trak at 7 AM Wednesday
Future Trak shows snow showers continuing Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures should be above freezing at this point, so the snow should melt on contact. It may accumulate a little bit on grassy surfaces and decks.
Future Trak at 12 PM Wednesday
All of the rain and snow should end before 3 PM. The rain and snow could end even earlier if drier air from the northwest moves in a little bit sooner. A lot of you may be thinking that our Future Trak model is showing heavy snow, but the computers models are only showing about .1″-.25″ liquid equivalent, which would yield 1-2 inches of snow at best if it did all accumulate on the ground. Keep in mind that the ground is still very warm since we have seen temperatures in the 60s/70s for 6 straight days in a row.
Computer models are starting to come into somewhat of an agreement regarding Wednesday’s storm. The NAM is the outlier right now with the precipitation starting up Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday evening. It then shows a gap in the precip across the metro area on Wednesday with snow north of the metro Wednesday afternoon. Update: 0Z Nam is now more in line with the GFS and EURO. GFS and EURO are showing the rain and snow starting up early Wednesday morning and ending early Wednesday afternoon. These models paint a broad swath of snow across much of the region showing a dusting to 1 inch accumulation across most areas. The Canadian model is the driest of all models, with barely any precipitation, except for areas close to the coast.
Our Future Trak model is similar looking to the EURO and GFS right now.
Forecast Snow Totals
Keep in mind that this is just one model’s solution for total snowfall on Wednesday. However, EURO and GFS forecast snow totals are very similar. We will have a better idea of snow totals as we get within 48 hours of the event. This does NOT look like a big snow event for us in Hampton Roads since most of the computer models have the low pressure really strengthening once it is well to the northeast of us. Stay tuned! I will have another update on WAVY News 10 at 11 and Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will have more on WAVY News 10 Today starting at 4:30 AM Monday morning.
In other news, the closing ceremonies of the Winter Olympics aired on WAVY TV 10 tonight. The warm weather in Sochi created a lot of problems for the athletes participating in the Winter Games. Sochi, Russia now holds the title for the warmest weather during the Winter Olympics over the past 20 years. Temperatures in Olympic Village reached 68 degrees one day!
-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona