Weather

The Heat Breaks…For Now

June 17th, 2015 at 8:37 am by under Weather

Speaking of breaks…Yesterday we broke  one record high and tied another.  Norfolk International Airport hit 98 degrees. This beat the old record of 96 (1991). Elizabeth City hit 97, but that was shy of the record of 98.  Wallops Island tied the record of 94 degrees.  There were even a couple of 100′s.

Highs Yesterday

Highs Yesterday

Today will be better, but it won’t be a cool/crisp day by any means.  The cold front moved through last night and caused some scattered thunderstorms.  In fact, the storms kept me up for a while last night.  So I am a little cranky this morning.  Anyway, the storms are long gone, and the cold front is slowly moving to our south this morning.

Cold Front Moving South

Cold Front Moving South

The winds have finally turned out of the northeast.  They will run at about 8-12mph.  This should help to keep the temperatures down for most locations this afternoon.  We’ll see highs in the mid-upper 80s for most cities.  There will be some low/mid 80s near the shore.  However, we’ll still see some 90s inland.  Also, it will still be fairly humid out.  So it is a cool down, but it will still be a few degrees above average.  The front will stall out to our south later today. Then it will move back north as a warm front tomorrow.   This will cause some scattered showers and storms around/after midnight.  A few of those could continue into early tomorrow morning.  Highs tomorrow will be in the low 90s or near 90.  We’ll stay in the upper 80s to low 90s into the weekend.

Meanwhile tropical depression Bill is moving towards Dallas, TX.  Sustained winds were down to 35mph this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is a lot of flooding over parts of eastern Texas.  The rain is heading into eastern Oklahoma.  Heavy rain will continue over these areas despite slow weakening of the system.  It will move into Arkansas and Oklahoma over the next 2 days.  It will become post-tropical at that point.  However, the moisture from the system will keep moving east.  It will move closer to us over the weekend.  Yesterday it looked like it would move in by Saturday giving us a higher chance for rain there.  However, the models seem to slow down the timing a bit.  So we may see scattered showers from late Saturday into Sunday now.  It’s still early to call this though, and the models don’t agree on how much moisture arrives.  So stay tuned for updates.  For now I just have some scattered showers for each day, but not a washout.

Finally, in national news… May was wet for the U.S.  In fact…we broke a record.  It was the wettest May on record over the contiguous U.S. according to a report from NOAA: Wettest May on record. There was some extreme flooding in Texas in May, but it’s interesting since the extreme drought continues in California.  What’s amazing is how the drought in Texas from the last couple of years is completely gone.  Here’s the latest U.S. Drought Monitor:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor

U.S. Drought Monitor

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Record Heat & Tropical Storm Bill

June 16th, 2015 at 8:48 am by under Weather

Yesterday was rough.  Today is going to be rougher.  High temps on Tuesday reached the upper 90s in many locations.  Even Norfolk hit 97 degrees.

Highs Yesterday

Highs Yesterday

That actually tied the old record set back in 1885.  Today we will likely be a couple of degrees hotter.  So today we will see some 100′s in the area.  The record high at Norfolk International Airport is 96 degrees for today.  Norfolk will likely get to 99.  Our lovely Bermuda High/heat pump is in full swing.  We will see winds out of the west/southwest today at 8-12mph.  Dew points are in the low/mid 70s.  Skies are clearing a bit this morning, and they will become mostly sunny soon.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 90s to around  100 degrees.  Even temps near the shore will be in the 90s today.  It will only be right there next to the water where the cooler temps will lie. If I’m wrong about the winds, then a sea breeze could develop.  Keep that in mind.  Here’s my forecast for some of the local temperatures this afternoon:

Forecast High Temperatures

Forecast High Temperatures

The heat index will be between 100 and 109 degrees.  Williamsburg tends to run a little high, but I bet the heat index there will approach 110 today.  The light breeze out of the west should help a bit, but not much.  Now we may kick off some isolated showers and storms this afternoon.  We had a few rowdy storms on the Northern Neck, Eastern Shore, and Middle Peninsula yesterday evening.  There is a slightly higher chance for rain in those locations (30%). Whereas the chance for rain is only 20% elsewhere.

By tonight the cold front will move down into our region.  We’ll see some scattered showers and storms as the front moves through.   So by tomorrow the front will clear the region,  and it will stall out to our south.  Winds will be northeast at 5-10mph.  This will keep our highs in the mid-upper 80s.  Keep in mind that it will still be humid.  So the heat index will still be in the low 90s in the afternoon.  Better, but not a cool/crisp day by any means.  The front will move back north as a warm front on Thursday.  Highs will be back in the low 90s.  The heat index in the upper 90s.  We’ll basically be in the upper 80s to low 90s into the weekend with some scattered storms possible each day.  I’ll refine the weekend forecast as it gets closer.

In the Gulf of Mexico Tropical Storm Bill is making its way towards the Texas coast.  The winds had increased to 60mph around the mid morning.  It will make landfall just northeast of Corpus Christi.  Then it will move inland and weaken this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Bill

Tropical Storm Bill

The winds may cause some light damage, but the big problem will be the flooding and the rain.  Especially in the Houston Area.  A lot of Texas has had recent flooding over the past couple of months.  Houston had a major flood last month from non-tropical systems.  They have been preparing for this next round of flooding.  The rain has already started pouring in. That region could see over 6 inches of rain.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The rain will keep moving north towards Dallas, but the system will lose its strength.  Some of the moisture from the system may migrate our way by Friday, but the system will have fallen apart by then.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Near Record Heat

June 15th, 2015 at 8:35 am by under Weather

The heat has moved in early this year.  Believe it or not yesterday there was some relief.  The highs were in the upper 80s to low 90s.  However, the humidity was high for most of the day.  I was doing some yard work in the morning, and it was rough.   Yesterday afternoon/evening there were a few showers and storms around.  There were some boundaries in the region including a warm front. Today the warm front is to our north.  So we’ll only see some isolated/pop-up showers and storms this afternoon.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The breeze will only run out of the southwest at 5-10mph.  This could allow a sea breeze to form later today.  However, the water temperatures are really warming up.  So the breeze could be delayed a bit.  The water temperatures at the local beaches are in the low-mid 70s now, and some of the local waterways are running in the mid-upper 70s.  That is very early for those types of temperatures.  Wasn’t there ice on the Bay up until late February?  Wow!

The air temperatures are aiming for the mid-upper 90s this afternoon with some locations near the shore in the upper 80s to near 90. The record high for today at Norfolk International Airport is 97 degrees (1885).  The record high for tomorrow is 96 (1991).  We may break that record.  The heat index will be between 100-105 degrees this afternoon  This is not a good way to start Summer camp. Which many kids will do this week.  Skies will be partly cloudy.  Again, a few pop up storms are possible.

Tomorrow we’ll likely see more sunshine in the morning.  Therefore temps are forecast to rise to the upper 90s in more areas.  The heat index will be between 100 and 107.  There may be heat advisories issued for tomorrow afternoon.  The winds will change by Wednesday.  Highs will be more in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday and Thursday.  The rain chances will also go up later this week.  Overall the warm/hot weather looks to continue into next weekend.

Heat Forecast

Heat Forecast

In the tropics…there is a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that may become a tropical storm or depression soon.

Tropical Disturbance

Tropical Disturbance

There is a high chance of it forming according to the National Hurricane Center.  Tropical storm force winds have been registered north of the cluster of storms, but the disturbance is still disorganized (as of this writing).  Whether it officially forms or not, it is likely to move westward.  It may run as far south as Brownsville and as far north as Houston.  This situation could be a major problem for Texas as large areas of flooding are possible once again.  They have already had a lot of flooding recently up in the Midwest including some near my hometown.  Illinois Flooding.

Too bad we can’t bottle some of that up and send it to California.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Sweating in the Sweltering Heat

June 14th, 2015 at 8:10 pm by under Weather

It’s been SO hot that I’ve actually been dragging a plastic kiddie pool to and from the dog park everyday this week – need to make sure the dogs have a chance to cool down in this stifling heat!  (Best $4.84 I’ve ever spent!)

We had a few showers and storms this afternoon, which helped cool things down..briefly..

Check this out – this is a picture of mammatus clouds taken near Naval Station Norfolk from Chief Meteorologist Don Slater!

Mammatus Clouds - Norfolk

Mammatus Clouds – Norfolk

Mammatus clouds often extend from the base of cumulonimbus clouds, but can be associated with other cloud types.  They do not produce any rain, but are indicative of stronger storms.  (Although in this case, we did not have any strong or severe storms today!)

I don’t anticipate any thundershowers over the next couple of days, but it’s going to get even HOTTER!

Temperature vs. Heat Index

Temperature vs. Heat Index

You can see temperatures will top out in the mid to upper-90s Monday and Tuesday, but when you factor in the high humidity, it’ll feel like it’s in the 100s across all of Hampton Roads and North Carolina!  There will be a slight drop in temperatures on Wednesday, but once again, with dewpoints near 70°, you won’t notice much of a difference.

On these very hot and humid days, remember:

Heat Safety Tips

Heat Safety Tips

Our next chance of showers and storms will hold off until late Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  I’ve thrown in a chance for some thundershowers Friday and Saturday, but that will won’t knock temps down much..

Be sure you take good care of yourself in this searing heat!
-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Muggy, Mississippi Style Forecast

June 13th, 2015 at 8:09 am by under Weather

I thought I woke up in southern Mississippi or Louisiana this morning – it was that muggy out there!!  I suppose if it feels like Louisiana, I might as well have a crawfish omelet right??

I digress..

You don’t need me to tell you it’s going to be another hazy, hot, and humid day!  The beach will be the place to be today – that water will feel nice and refreshing!

Beach Forecast

Beach Forecast

There will be a low risk for rip currents stretching from the Eastern Shore, through Virginia Beach, and along the Outer Banks.  Since the UV index will be very high, I would recommend wearing at least SPF 30 today and keep re-applying throughout the day!  Also, make sure you stay well-hydrated, wear loose, light-colored clothes, spend some time in air-conditioned areas, and make sure the pet don’t stay out long, and certainly, make sure you don’t leave them in hot, locked cars!

Speaking of pets..

Norfolk SPCA Dog Walk

Norfolk SPCA Dog Walk

Hawaiian Dog Parade

Hawaiian Dog Parade

We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds out there with temperatures surging into the low-90s.  When you combine highs in the 90s with dewpoints in the 70s, the heat index will range from 97° to 103° this afternoon!  Most of the day will be dry, but a back door cold front may spark a few isolated showers and storms after 5 PM.

Future Trak Forecast - 5 PM

Future Trak Forecast – 5 PM

We won’t have to worry about any strong or severe storms..only garden-variety thundershowers.

There will be a slightly better chance for some showers and storms Sunday afternoon, but I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans, just keep an eye on the radar!

Future Trak Forecast - 5 PM Sunday

Future Trak Forecast – 5 PM Sunday

You would think some of these showers could cool us down a bit, but noooope, it’s going to stay hot and humid for the next several days!

Temperature vs. Heat Index

Temperature vs. Heat Index

Even though temperatures will only range from the upper-80s to low-90s, it’ll feel hotter because of the high humidity.  Dewpoints are expected to stay in the low-70s through next Thursday.

Be sure you take good care of yourself in this searing heat!

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


A.C.s Are Humming!

June 12th, 2015 at 7:49 am by under Weather

The air conditioners are working a little overtime lately.  The heat hasn’t broken any records, but the humidity is high for this time of year.  Dew points are in the low 70s.  High temperatures rose to the 90s for most of the region yesterday.

Yesterday's High Temperatures

Yesterday’s High Temperatures

Inland temps hit the mid 90s in several cities.  It was more in the 80s near the shore.  A sea breeze did form yesterday in the afternoon.  It cooled down parts of Norfolk and Virginia Beach, but the rest of the region just sizzled.  The breeze was only 5-10mph yesterday, but today it will be a bit stronger (8-12mph out of the southwest).  This may stop the sea breeze from forming.  10-15mph will usually keep the coolness over the water.  So we’ll see.  High pressure is over the region.  So we’ll see partly cloudy skies.  With all of the heat and humidity we may squeeze out a few pop-up showers and storms, but the chance for rain is very low.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

All of this continues tomorrow.  The only real difference is that a back-door cold front will move in tomorrow night.  This will increase the rain chances by the evening and overnight.  The front will decrease the temperatures on Sunday. Highs will be in the 80s.  It will still be warm inland, but not as bad as today.

The cold front will likely stall over or near the region from Sunday through early next week.  This could easily kick off some scattered showers and storms through Wednesday.  So unfortunately, we’ll have to take the weather day-by-day Sunday through Wednesday.  Stay tuned and have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Heat Index Going Up

June 11th, 2015 at 8:35 am by under Weather

Heat and humidity.  That’s the big story for the next couple of days.  High pressure has built into the region.  We have a typical weather pattern called the Bermuda or Azores high setting up.  This is where the a large area of high pressure basically sits offshore for days (or even months) pumping in the heat from the southern U.S.  Winds are out of the southwest today, but they are very light (5-10mph).

Bermuda High

Bermuda High

So the heat and humidity will increase today.  Highs will be in the low 90s.  Dew Points are in the upper 60s.  This will put the heat index or “feels like temperature” up into the mid-upper 90s.  The bad news (if you hate heat) is that this weather pattern will continue for the next couple of days.

Temp & Heat Index Forecast

Temp & Heat Index Forecast

This will impact a lot of outdoor workers.  Plus, some kids are just getting out of school for the year.
Whatever you are doing…remember to:

1. Drink plenty of fluids, especially water.

2. Take breaks if you are working or doing outdoor activities

3.  Wear light-weight/light-colored clothing

This isn’t the biggest heat wave, but it is a bit early.  It’s not even Summer yet.  Plus, the heat indices will be fairly high for this time of year.  A cold front is expected to move through between Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. This will bring us scattered showers and storms along with a cool down.  The timing may change on that, so stay tuned.  Sunday’s forecast high temperatures are in the mid 80s.

Try to stay cool.  Hopefully, you can hit the pool or beach.  There’s a low threat for rip currents today.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


It Ain’t Summer Yet

June 10th, 2015 at 7:46 am by under Weather

It’s not Summer yet…technically.  The first day of Summer is on June 21st this year at 12:38pm EDT.  However, we’ll see some pretty Summery weather over the next few days.  A cool front has moved through the region, but it is falling apart.

Cool Front

Cool Front

High pressure is building in from the west.  So we are seeing clearing skies.  Yesterday the high temps were in the upper 80s to low 90s.  Today we’ll be more in the mid-upper 80s.  You most likely won’t notice the cool down as we have lost our breeze.  Yesterday it was out of the southwest at 10-15mph.  Today it will be variable at 5-10.  It should turn a little more easterly by the afternoon.

Tomorrow the winds turn out of the south.  So hello heat-wave.   Highs will be in the low 90s.  However, it will also be pretty humid. So the heat index will be in the mid-upper 90s.  Skies will be partly cloudy with only a stray shower or storm in the whole region.  This will continue into Saturday.  Then we may see a few showers and storms popping up by Sunday and Monday afternoons.  Stay tuned for updates.

I found this interesting article about a current conflict between some climatologists and environmentalists about a planned sediment study.  There are a few groups that are hoping to study sediment cores from the last 60 million years to better understand how the shoreline has changed off of New Jersey.  Apparently the study will use sound waves along the ocean floor.  Environmentalists and some citizens are concerned about wildlife and possible noise from the study.  Here is the article with more information: Sediment Study.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


June Heat Coming

June 9th, 2015 at 8:35 am by under Weather

Before I talk about the heat.  Let’s talk about the rain this morning.  Scattered showers and storms formed over central Virginia/North Carolina yesterday evening (as expected).  They were forecast to move into our region and die down to just some spotty showers by this morning.  Instead they held up, and they produced some heavy showers early this morning.

Radar This Morning

Radar This Morning

The showers ended around 7:30am, and the sun is starting to pop out as I write this.  At the same time, there is a cool front out to the west over West Virginia.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll be ahead of the front through most of the day.  Then it will move through this evening.  Again…we’ll see some quiet weather for the midday hours.  Then some scattered showers and storms will pop up ahead of the front in the late afternoon into the evening.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

These showers and storms may hold off until the evening as this morning’s showers may stabilize things for a while.  (That’s through subsidence or sinking air behind them). Tomorrow the front will hang-up and fall apart over northeast North Carolina.  There may be a shower or two in the region, but the rain chances look low at this time.  Then high pressure will build in for Thursday and Friday.

Ok..let’s talk temperatures.  Today with some midday clearing expected, temps will rise to the upper 80s with low 90s inland.  It is going to be hot and humid, but at least there will be a breeze.  It will be out of the southwest at 10-15mph.   Behind the cool front tomorrow we’ll see light easterly winds.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Then the front is forecast to fall apart over northeast North Carolina tomorrow.  That’s when some heat will build-in from the west.  On Thursday and Friday high temps will rise to the low 90s with some mid 90s inland.  The heat index will likely be in the upper 90s.  The heat will continue into Saturday, and it could even linger beyond that.  Stay tuned.  this could be a medium-sized June heat wave.  The average high temperature is about 82 degrees for this time of year.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Turning Up The Heat

June 8th, 2015 at 7:56 am by under Weather

We had a cool start to the day this morning as temps dropped down to the 50s inland.  This will be as cool as it gets this week.  We’ll be warming up for the next few days.  Look at the high temperature forecast:

Temperature Trend

Temperature Trend

Today and tomorrow we’ll be in the upper 80s.  Temps will drop a tad on Wednesday behind a cool front.  Then we’ll be soaring into the 90s Thursday and Friday.  The average high for this time of year is in the low 80s.  Today we have high pressure in the region.  So we are looking good.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll have a southwest breeze, and a warm front will brush the region.  Between that and the sunshine, temps will warm up this afternoon.  By tomorrow the cool front (now in the Midwest) will move into the region.  We’ll see some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing later in the day.

Future Trak (3pm Tuesday)

Future Trak (3pm Tuesday)

The front will likely get hung up to our south on Wednesday.  So we will still have a few isolated showers in the region.  Then we’ll dry out Thursday and Friday as the heat builds in from the west.

In world news… A new study has come out recently that focuses on how the Atlantic weather pattern may have more of an influence on the long-term Atlantic ocean currents than previously thought.  The study comes from the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom.  Here is the link: Jet Stream Steers Atlantic Currents.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler