Weather

Time For Jackets And Hot Chocolate!

October 3rd, 2014 at 8:44 am by under Weather

There’s some cooler weather on the way.  It’s about time to pull out those sweaters, and to buy the big packets of hot chocolate.  But hold on! We have one more warm day to get through first.  High pressure is in the region, but it is pushing offshore.  This will allow for more southerly winds today.  That will help to get the temperatures going into the upper 70s to low 80s in the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

As you can see there were some heavy duty showers over Kentucky and Tennessee. As these move east, most of them will fall apart.  A few of them may survive and push in by the early evening.  1 or 2 may even reach our far inland areas late in the afternoon.  However, the models only show a stray shower possible during that time.  The bulk of the rain will come in after midnight.  The cold front will move through the region early tomorrow morning.  There will be scattered showers moving through with the front.  They will linger behind the front until about 10-11am.  Here is what Future Trak shows for 7 am and noon tomorrow.

Future Trak (7am Sat)

Future Trak (7am Sat)

 

Future Trak (Noon Sat.)

Future Trak (Noon Sat.)

Notice at noon that there may be a stray shower along the coast, but it will push out shortly after that.  We are only looking at a couple tenths of an inch of rain in the region.  The cold front will quickly dive to the east/southeast.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

This will allow us to quickly dry out during the afternoon. However high temps won’t be too cool just yet because the winds will be more out of the west than the north.  So temps will still be able to rise into the mid 70s.  Saturday night will be a different story.  We’ll have clear skies, lighter winds, and dry air.  So low temperatures will drop down to the 40s area-wide.  We may even see some low-mid 40s inland.  It will be chilly.  Especially if you are in a tent.  Yep.  I’ll be camping this weekend with the scouts.  Also it will be chilly for the JT Walk down at the oceanfront on Sunday.  Also… the Crawlin Crab events up in Hampton will be chilly.  We’ll only see highs in the mid 60s on Sunday, but at least we’ll have plenty of sunshine.  We’ll warm up to the low 70s by early next week, but Monday will also start with lows in the 40s.  Ladies and gentlemen…get your hot chocolate mugs ready!  Or your pumpkin flavored latte mugs.  Either way.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


An Interesting Way To Look At Hurricanes

October 2nd, 2014 at 5:08 pm by under Weather

I was presented this infographic from Adam Levenson (Community Manager UNC-Chapel Hill)

Decade of Destruction: High Cost of Hurricanes

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The infographic was created by MPA@UNC, the online format of the UNC School of Government’s Master of Public Administration Program

 

It really gives an interesting way to look at our recent hurricanes.

-Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


On Track For Change

October 2nd, 2014 at 9:02 am by under Weather

We are still on track to get some big changes this weekend.  Even this morning there was one noticeable change…A lack of fog.  A weak disturbance rolled in last night and produced a few sprinkles.  It also increased the clouds in the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The clouds helped to prohibit fog formation.  This happens as the clouds act like a blanket and keeps the surface temps from falling. Therefore since temps don’t drop to the dew point, then the water vapor in the air does not condense.  So fog is not likely during cloudy nights.  There are exceptions.  One area was an exception to the lack of fog this morning.  The Eastern Shore did have some for a brief while.  For the rest of the day though high pressure will dominate the weather.  So we’ll have partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 70s.  There may be 1 or 2 inland readings near 80.

There is a cold front in the Midwest that is causing lots of stormy weather today. As this system moves east it will weaken over the next 24 hours.  The front will make it to western Virginia by tomorrow evening.  We’ll be ahead of it with some warm temperatures during the day.  Skies will be partly cloudy

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The front will move through our area late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Rain will move in with the front.  The latest models have the rain lasting through most of the morning Saturday.  They may continue up until noon along the coast, but then they will push out during the afternoon.  Some of the models are calling for more in the way of scattered showers for Saturday morning.  The GFS still has a continuous line of showers.  Either way at least some rain is likely during Saturday morning.  Temperatures won’t cool down too much on Saturday.  However, we’ll drop down to the upper 40s to low 50s Saturday night.  Skies will clear.  Then we’ll see nice weather and highs in the mid-upper 60s on Sunday.  By Monday morning we’ll see lows in the 40s area-wide.  It will be some of the coolest air that we’ll have had since last Spring.  Course we did have that one weird/cool day in the middle of last Summer, but it didn’t get that cool in the metro.

We’ll have nice weather and mild temps early next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cool Front For Now, Big Change This Weekend!

October 1st, 2014 at 8:15 am by under Weather

While it was another quiet morning across the region, it was also foggy again for some local towns and counties.  We had more school delays in North Carolina. Yesterday that fog held on for a long time over parts of central Virginia/North Carolina.  Hopefully, that won’t happen again.

Today there is a weak cool front moving through the region.  Also, there is a weak mid-level disturbance to our north.  This is causing a few showers over Maryland this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Both of these features will sink south through the afternoon.  This will give us a few sprinkles in the region later today.  It will also keep the temperatures mild.

By Friday we’ll change the weather pattern up.  A warm front will make it through the region.  Winds will be out of the south/southeast and skies will be partly cloudy.

Friday's Forecast

Friday’s Forecast

High temps will push up to near 80 on Friday, but this warmth is temporary.  A strong cold front will move through the region late Friday night into early Saturday.

Saturday's Forecast

Saturday’s Forecast

There will be some rain showers near the front.  An isolated thunderstorm is even possible.  For now this looks like it will happen late Friday night, and the rain will last through the mid morning on Saturday.  Keep in mind that the trend has been to hold on to the showers a little later in the morning on Saturday.  Cooler/Drier air will filter in through the day.  So by Saturday afternoon we should be partly cloudy with highs in the 70s.  Temps may even drop a bit.  The colder air will really sink in by Saturday night.  Lows will be in the 50s area-wide.  There may even be some 40s inland.

If you like Fall weather, then it should be very nice for you on Sunday.  We’ll be partly sunny with highs in the mid-upper 60s.  Then we’ll warm up just a bit on Monday.

The tropics are awfully quiet lately.  We are coming out of the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and we are running below average.   Usually by mid-October, Hampton Roads is in the clear.  That is for MOST years.  Not all years. I.E. Hurricane Sandy.

Average Hurricane Season

Average Hurricane Season

Higher wind shear along with some dry Saharan air has helped to keep the activity down this year in the Atlantic, but the Pacific has been busy.

I did find a neat article which talks about the Hurricane Hunters and those that fly into hurricanes.  It gives a little history including the first official flight into a hurricane and some losses that have happened while flying. Here’s the story: Hurricane Hunters (70 years of info).

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


In-Between Distubances

September 30th, 2014 at 8:36 am by under Weather

There was some rain in the region yesterday and last night.  This was along a weak disturbance in the atmosphere that has since moved out.  The rain didn’t add up to much, but a couple tenths of an inch did fall from the Peninsula northward.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

Pam in Gloucester had 0.25″ of rain.  The moisture on the ground, light winds, and inland clearing led to some fog this morning.  It was pretty thick inland, but it wasn’t bad along the coast.  Today high pressure will build in a bit from the west.  So we’ll see some nice weather with partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Tomorrow another weak disturbance will move into the region (in the mid levels).  This will increase the clouds and may even cause a few sprinkles.  Highs will be in the 70s.  We’ll stay mild and go dry for Thursday.  Then we’ll warm up on Friday.  Highs will get up into the 80s ahead of the next big cold front.  So the front will move through Friday night into early Saturday.  This will give us some scattered rain showers.  Those should push out by mid-Saturday morning.  Then we’ll have some beautiful weather for the rest of the weekend.  However, it will be much cooler. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Lows will be in the 50s with some 40s possible inland.  Now there’s a taste of Fall for you.  We’ll warm up a bit then by next Monday.

I found this on the internet this morning.  I’ve never seen a cloud like this before.  At least not this large.   Apparently it is a large circle cloud that was spotted on satellite.  Very cool. Check it out. Circle cloud over the Pacific.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cloudy Start To The Week

September 29th, 2014 at 8:44 am by under Weather

It was a very nice/quiet weekend.   We had a lot of sunshine with some clouds building in late yesterday.  After the dryness over the last 48 hours, now the moisture is pushing back in.  In fact this has caused some showers to form just to our west in the overnight.  The scattered light showers are pushing east and will move through the region today.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There are actually no big weather systems around.  There’s a weak high to the north, a weak low to the southwest, and a weak front over the Midwest.  So our showers are coming from the moisture push, some weak overrunning, and a weak mid-level disturbance.  See a theme?

I put the chance for rain at 30% with a higher chance later this afternoon into the evening.  Amounts should be a couple tenths of an inch or less.  This will all push out by tomorrow. We’ll see nice weather by the late morning and afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s both days.  We’ll stay in the 70s until Friday.  Then we’ll warm up to near 80.  This warmth will be ahead of the next cold front.  That front will move through Friday night into early Saturday.  So we’ll cool down Saturday and Sunday.  If we’re lucky then the rain will be confined to Saturday morning.  I’ve got some camping and the Children’s festival.  So I’ve got my fingers crossed.  Stay tuned for updates to the timing.  Highs on Sunday will be near 70.  Maybe even in the 60s.  We’ll see.

The tropics are still quiet, however, there is one area to note.  There is a weak disturbance near Bermuda that has brought that region some heavy rain.  It isn’t a strong system, but it does have a low potential for forming into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days.

Disturbance In The Tropics

Disturbance In The Tropics

For now it is expected to stay out to sea.  Stay tuned for updates.

Speaking of updates….The drought in California is causing more and more problems.  Here’s one that may affect you locally:  Food prices.  Here’s an article with more info: California Crop Shortages.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


A Sunny Weekend Ahead

September 27th, 2014 at 6:00 am by under Weather

Well, at least for half of the weekend we are looking sunny. An area of high pressure is in control off to our north today. That will keep us with a fresh northeast breeze at around 10-15mph.

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

The dry air should keep our skies mostly clear this afternoon. The OBX still has a chance to see more cloud cover since you will be a bit closer to the offshore area of low pressure.

Future Trak @ Noon

Future Trak @ Noon

Overall, we are looking sunny and dry for today. Tomorrow may be a bit different, more cloud cover will be the theme. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday. Our weekend is looking dry, into next week Tuesday and Wednesday another coastal storm may bring us rain and wind. Stay tuned for updates.

Tropical Update:

No organized storms exist in the Atlantic Ocean, the tropics remain quiet.

Surf Update:

The northeast windswell will continue for the next week. Sunday could be more fun since our northeast winds are expected to die down a bit.

Saturday Wave Heights

Saturday Wave Heights

That coastal storm next week may boost our waves in the 4-6ft range…stay tuned!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 


Ready….Set…..Wait…Waiiiitt.

September 26th, 2014 at 8:17 am by under Weather

Like Runners at a starting line, folks are lined up waiting for some sunshine.  They are hungry (for the sun), and they are ready to dry out.  This morning was well before start time.  We had lots of clouds and pockets of drizzle.  It wasn’t windy, but there was a breeze out of the north.  The area of low pressure that caused all the rain is long gone.  However, we are still on the edge of some moisture and clouds.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High pressure will gradually try to build in from the west today.  We’ll gradually try to clear up through the day.  So my race metaphor may be a little misleading.  It won’t clear up all at once.  Still… we will improve by later this afternoon/evening.  The wind will be out of the north at 10-15mph.  It’s tough to clear out on a north wind during the cool season, but I’d say we aren’t fully into cool season yet.  Plus some drier air to the north should filter in today as well.  Therefore I’m optimistic.  Cautiously optimistic.  Highs will be in the mid 70s.  We’ll clear out tonight for sure with just a few clouds.  Lows will be in the 60s.

We are still looking good this weekend. High pressure will sit over the region. This will give us fair skies and highs in the 70s.  Should be great for all the outdoor events.  We’ll see a return of some rain early next week.

Now you may have heard about this story recently.  Radars don’t just detect rain and snow.  Sometimes wildlife can be picked up on radar.  Bugs and birds are often detected.  Here was one recent episode from Missouri: Butterflies on radar.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


The Moisture Won’t Leave

September 25th, 2014 at 8:33 am by under Weather

The rain picked up yesterday.  It was a widespread/soaking rain that lasted for a long time.  The cause was an area of low pressure that was wrapped in a lot of humidity.  It dropped a solid 1-2″ of rain through the region. Some cities even saw about 2.5″ of rain.

24  Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

My weather watcher Mike in Whaleyville had 2.9″ of rain.  Pam in Gloucester had 1.5″.  We had a little more rain than forecast in the inland locations as the low expanded quite a bit, and was also a little farther west than anticipated.  The rain started to break up by yesterday evening.  However, the clouds and moisture are sticking around.  This moisture is in a fairly isolated area when you look at things region-by-region.

Dew Points

Dew Points

The moisture will hang around today.  Also, even though the low is to our north, there is a stationary front stretching through our area.

Stationary Front

Stationary Front

So we will have a few showers today, but it won’t be like yesterday.  The chance for rain is only 20%.  A little higher over the Outer Banks.  High pressure is trying to build in from the west, but it has put on the brakes and is stalling out.  We’ll have a lot of clouds, but the winds are not as bad.  Yesterday we had some gusts to 35mph.  Today we’ll see a northwest wind at 10mph.  10-15mph on the Eastern Shore.

The spotty showers and sprinkles will continue into tonight and even a little early tomorrow.  However, we’ll clear up nicely late Friday, and the good weather will continue into the weekend.

In national news…I found this neat article about cicadas.  Looks like we may see more of them in the future.  Cicadas and climate.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Wednesday Evening Update

September 24th, 2014 at 5:10 pm by under Weather

It has been a rainy, nasty and windy day across Hampton Roads. Here is the view outside of Tower Cam 10.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

So far we have seen between 1-3 inches of rain depending on where you live.

24-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

More rain is likely tonight as the area of low pressure moves inland across North Carolina and Virginia. Rain should taper off after midnight from south to north as the low moves out over the ocean and pushes away from us. Here is our Future Trak computer model at 10 PM tonight.

Future Trak at 10 PM Tonight

Future Trak at 10 PM Tonight

Some drier air will try to push into some areas tomorrow, although we could still see a few showers on Thursday. Best chances for rain will be across the Eastern Shore before sunrise and across North Carolina during the late afternoon/evening.

Future Trak at 7 AM Thursday

Future Trak at 7 AM Thursday

Winds will stay up tonight and range between 15-25mph. We could see another round of nuisance tidal flooding during high tide tonight around 10 PM. Water levels are forecast to reach around 4 feet tonight. If you saw any nuisance tidal flooding this morning, then you will probably see additional tidal flooding again tonight. The weekend is looking great!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona