Weather

Heating Up Across Hampton Roads & The Tropics

October 12th, 2014 at 9:09 pm by under Weather

Our warming trend begins tomorrow in Hampton Roads and the tropics are becoming more active too. First we will talk about our local weather. It was cloudy and cool today with highs only in the upper 60s for many of you. The clouds will stick around on Monday, but it will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The reason we are going to be warmer tomorrow is because a ridge of high pressure will build into Hampton Roads. The jet stream will slide to our north as our next storm system gains some energy across the Central Plains.

Monday Set-Up

Monday Set-Up

Our southeasterly winds will increase our moisture levels tomorrow. Since our moisture levels will be on the rise, we can’t rule out a few isolated showers Monday afternoon, but most areas should remain dry. Our latest Future Trak model only has a few showers developing by 3 PM.

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

The cold front will get closer to us on Wednesday, therefore Tuesday will be even warmer with highs in the lower 80s. Wednesday will be a day of change. We may see a few showers in the morning, but the main area of showers and storms won’t arrive until late in the day on Wednesday. Some of the storms may be on the strong side. Rain will continue into early Thursday morning.  The computer models are still in disagreement with the timing of the rain. The GFS model pushes all of the rain east of us early Thursday morning. The European model is slower and keeps the rain here until Thursday evening. We will probably see the models meet somewhere in the middle, so stay tuned for changes. Cooler and drier weather will move in behind the front. Highs will drop into the 70s Friday and Saturday and lows will be in the 50s. Next weekend is looking great so far!

Tropical Update:

The tropics are also heating up! We have 2 systems spinning in the Atlantic Ocean right now. Fay became a Category 1 Hurricane at 5 PM. Fay brought tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the island of Bermuda last night and early this morning. There have been reports of thousands without power, downed trees, some roof damage and flooding across the island. Fay is moving east northeast and is forecast to rapidly weaken Monday and Tuesday.

11 PM Update: Fay has now weakened to a tropical storm.

Hurricane Fay

Hurricane Fay

Hampton Roads will see higher surf Monday and Tuesday thanks to the swell from Fay. Expect wave heights to range between 3-4 feet for Virginia Beach and 4-5 feet for the Outer Banks Monday. Wave heights will come down on Tuesday, but should range between 2-3 feet for Virginia Beach and 3-4 feet for the Outer Banks. The water temperature is around 69-70 degrees at this time. Surf conditions won’t be ideal since winds will be strong out of the southeast both Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo developed just east of the Lesser Antilles around 1:30 this afternoon. Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday as it moves westward toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Many of the global computer models have Gonzalo interacting with the same cold front that will impact Hampton Roads this week. This front should steer Gonzalo to the east, which would keep the storm out to sea and away from the U.S. Stay tuned for more updates!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Cooling Down!

October 11th, 2014 at 9:18 pm by under Weather

It was a warm day for some and a cool day for others depending on when the cold front moved through your neighborhood. Check out the highs across the region.

Highs Today

Highs Today

Heavy rain moved across Virginia and North Carolina early this morning. Then we saw a break for much of the afternoon before another round of showers and storms developed along the cold front as it pushed into North Carolina. Most areas saw around 0.25″, while others saw much more than that.

24-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

Rain should taper off late tonight and lows will drop into the upper 50s. Sunday will be much cooler and breezy. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 60s and it will feel even cooler with a strong northeast breeze. A few showers are possible during the afternoon, but the rain will be very hit or miss.

Future Trak 3 PM Sunday

Future Trak 3 PM Sunday

Monday and Tuesday will be warmer with highs in the 70s on Monday and 80s on Tuesday.  A strong cold front will move into the region Wednesday night. Showers and storms will likely develop out ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and continue into early Thursday morning. Some of the storms could be on the strong side. Thursday and Friday will be cooler with highs in the 60s on Thursday and 70s on Friday.

Tropical Update:

Tropical Storm Fay continues to move northward tonight. Fay will bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to Bermuda tonight as it passes just east of the island.

Tropical Storm Fay

Tropical Storm Fay

Fay will stay out to sea, but will bring us higher surf Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. We are watching another area of showers and storms just east of the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center is giving this area of disturbed weather a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours and a 60% chance over the next 5 days. The next name is Gonzalo.

Area to Watch

Area to Watch

Computer models track this disturbance westward toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic over the next few days. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


A Cloudy And Cooler Weekend

October 11th, 2014 at 9:03 am by under Weather

We will see mostly cloudy skies today and tomorrow across Hampton Roads as a weak cold front moves down to the south.

Tracking The Colder Air

Tracking The Colder Air

Areas in N. Carolina will see highs in the 80s with some sunshine today. This front will help to bring in showers for areas north of the Peninsula this morning and into the early afternoon. After 3pm the rain chances will shift to the Southside and NE N.C.

Future Trak @ 6pm

Future Trak @ 6pm

This afternoon a few thunderstorms may also develop, most of them will just bring periods of heavy rainfall. There is a small risk of one or two becoming stronger later today. The levels of shear and CAPE (Wind Speeds and Energy) are at marginal which could support a supercell or multicell thunderstorm. We will keep an eye out for those later today.

Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Fay is still in the central Atlantic ocean.

Fay's Track

Fay’s Track

This storm will stay out to sea. It will bring rain and wind to Bermuda today and tomorrow. We will see a increase in the surf across Hampton Roads starting tomorrow and going into the upcoming week. The waves will peak on Tuesday night and then decrease and clean up on Wednesday.

Have a great weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Subtropical Storm Fay Develops

October 10th, 2014 at 2:02 pm by under Weather

**As of the 5pm Update, Subtropical Storm Fay has developed**

 

A subtropical storm is being tracked by the National Hurricane Center in the central Atlantic Ocean. A subtropical storm is a little different than a tropical storm here are a few main reasons:

  1. The main thunderstorm activity is more than 100 miles away from the center of circulation.
  2. The center of circulation is mostly cloud free, versus in a tropical system.
  3. Colder air is wrapped up inside the storm.
Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

This storm is still to the south of Bermuda, and will likely track towards there over the upcoming weekend.

Tracking The Storm

Tracking The Storm

The only thing we’ll see from his storm is a swell of waves coming on Wednesday. Waves at 3-4ft+ is possible by the middle of next week.

There are a few other areas further upstream from this subtropical storm. We will monitor those over the weekend.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 


Front Forming…Is Fay Forming Too?

October 10th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

Locally we have some pretty good weather today.  However, there is a stationary front forming in the region, and it will have an impact on our weekend weather.  The front is developing this morning just to our north.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The boundary was really just a wind-shift line, but the cold and warm air on both sides are getting reinforced.  As high pressure slides to our southeast, we’ll develop southwesterly winds locally.  This will let the temperatures rise up to the upper 70s to low 80s.  Meanwhile it will only be in the upper 60s in Washington D.C.

Forecast High Temps

Forecast High Temps

Along the front there will be some spotty showers today.  These will try to move into the region this afternoon.  However, I’m only calling for a slight chance for that shower or a 20% chance.  That is for southeast Virginia, but I doubt we’ll see anything in North Carolina.  Otherwise we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds.

Tomorrow the front will slowly sink south as a cold front. Though it will be very slow moving.  This will create a chance for scattered showers in the region.  I put the chance at 20% tomorrow morning, and then 40% by the late afternoon.   It definitely won’t rain all day.  Here is what Future Trak shows for Saturday at 3pm:

Future Trak (3pm Sat.)

Future Trak (3pm Sat.)

The boundary will keep heading south late Saturday into early Sunday.  We’ll dry out on Sunday, but not completely as the front stalls out over North Carolina.  So we could see an isolated shower or two.  Otherwise Sunday is looking pretty good.  Highs will be in the low 70s on Saturday….upper 60s on Sunday.

We’ll be mild and dry Monday and Tuesday.  Then a large system will move through the region on Wednesday.  Rain is likely and there will probably be some thunderstorms.  The deep flow out of the south will let the moisture pool into the region.  So heavy rain will be possible.  Stay tuned for updates.

In the tropics there is an update.  By the time you read this, tropical storm Fay is likely to have formed.  Or at least it will shortly.  It is very impressive on the satellite, and has been all morning.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

Ok.  Maybe it will be subtropical storm Fay.  Either way, this area looks like it has its act together as it moves to the north/northwest. You can find the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center here: NHC forecast.  The forecast models keep it out to sea, but it may impact Bermuda.  It may also bring us some higher waves by the weekend.  So we’ll have to monitor.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Up And Down Temps, And Tidal Flooding Report

October 9th, 2014 at 8:34 am by under Weather

Yesterday we had a weak cool front move through the region.  It didn’t really cool us down much at first.  However, temps did fall last night as the skies were clear and the winds were light.  It was in the 40s inland with some milder 60s near the coast.  A northeast breeze coming off of the ocean and bay kept the temps up in Norfolk and Virginia Beach.  Later today high pressure will provide for a very nice day.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll see fair skies and highs in the low/mid 70s.  Tomorrow the clouds will increase, but winds will be out of the southeast. So we’ll warm up a bit.  We’ll see highs back in the upper 70s to low 80s.  Then a cold front will move into the region over the weekend and cool us down again.  The front is still expected to stall out over the region.  This will give us a chance for some scattered showers both days.  The models are still looking at only some light/scattered showers.  In fact they have been trending drier over the last 24 hours.  So I still believe there will be a lot of time in between the rain.  I may even drop the chance on Sunday to slight.  We’ll see.   If you have outdoor plans, then this is good news.  The models are actually picking up on a bigger storm system next Tuesday into Wednesday.  This is looking like it will cause lots of showers and storms in the region.  It will be a big trough that will slide out of the Midwest into the Southeast.   A lot of deep moisture looks to move into the region so stay tuned for updates.

In the tropics things are fairly quiet.  There is a weak disturbance north/northeast of the Leeward Islands that may develop over the next few days.

Weak Disturbance In The Tropics

Weak Disturbance In The Tropics

It is moving generally northwest.  It is expected to stay out to sea, and it could impact Bermuda.  Also it could bring us some waves down the road.  We’ve see a lot of tidal flooding this year.  Some of it has been indirectly from systems well offshore.  So we’ll monitor this system for that.

In that same realm.  A new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists is out, and it talks directly about how tides are rising along the East Coast.  Nuisance to minor tidal flooding has increased in frequency over the years.  I have personally witnessed this in my 10 years at WAVY.  It is getting to the point that we have nuisance tidal flooding even with the weakest disturbances.  I now have to factor in the tide when heavy rain is forecast.  This is from systems that are not even coastal in nature.   The article specifically talks about the Norfolk and Outer Banks areas on pages 34-36.  So this really hits home, and is a good read.  Here is the article: Increasing Tidal Flooding.

Let me know your thoughts about it in the comment section.  Thanks!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Eclipse Photos And A Warmup

October 8th, 2014 at 8:58 am by under Weather

Some lucky folks got to see the lunar eclipse this morning.  Others had clouds in the way.  Here is one photo from Eric Quarles in Virginia Beach.  He got a nice close up view:

Lunar Eclipse

Lunar Eclipse

Here is what we saw on Tower Cam 10 as it turned into a crescent:

tower cam

Tower Cam

The sun came up and made it difficult to see the moon in the shore time before setting.  So Hampton Roads was unable to see the simultaneous eclipsing moon-sun combo this morning.  Bummer.  At least most of us got to see the eclipse.  Here is a slideshow with more high quality photos. Lunar Eclipse photos.

Now the sun is up and the moon is gone.  We’ll see increasing sunshine today.  A cold front is turning into a wind-shift line as it moves into our region this morning.  The cold air behind it is modifying.  So that’s why I call it a wind-shift line at this point.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

With the westerly winds and clearing skies we are going for a warm afternoon.  Highs will rise to the low 80s with some mid 80s inland.  At least it will dry out and the breeze will help.  So it shouldn’t get too terribly warm.  By tonight the boundary will be well to our south.  So we’ll have light winds and mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s.

Tomorrow we’ll be a little cooler as the winds will be out of our north/northeast.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  Then we’ll warm up again on Friday to the upper 70s.

It will be cooler this weekend as the next cold front moves into the region.  The models haven’t been all over the place, but they do keep changing with each run.  The generally show some scattered light showers for both Saturday and Sunday, but nowhere near a washout.  In fact a lot of the showers could just be sprinkles.  I put the chance for rain at 30-40% for each day, but I’m wondering if we can drop the chance to slight by tomorrow.  I’m downplaying it a little prematurely.  The models may wetten up before we get to that point.  So stay tuned.  Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  At least it will be cool.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Hey It’s Warm, And Moon Odds!

October 7th, 2014 at 9:13 am by under Weather

Warm?  This morning some of our temperatures were 10-20 degrees warmer than yesterday…which was already a few degrees warmer than the prior day.  That’s Hampton Roads for you.  Ever changing weather.  So this morning the temperatures started in the 50s and 60s.  We did have a lot of clouds around.  In fact…The sun was shining behind a deck of clouds and some rays of light shone from behind.  It was a beautiful sight.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Clouds will break up by the late morning and midday.  High pressure will keep any rain to our west.

Today's Forecast Map

Today’s Forecast Map

The southerly winds and partial clearing will kick the temps up to near 80 degrees.  Wow!  That is a big warmup from Sunday when highs were in the mid 60s.  Humidity shouldn’t be too bad, but it will increase a bit.  The cool front will move through tonight.  We’ll only see some spotty showers along the weak boundary.  Lows will be in the mid 60s.

Tomorrow the front will move through, but it will pretty much fall apart too.  So we’ll have westerly winds and drying through the day.  Skies will likely go to mostly sunny by the afternoon after partly cloudy skies in the morning.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Highs will still manage to get up to near 80 degrees.  Then the wind will turn on Thursday.  They’ll be out of the north/northeast.  So high temps will only be in the low 70s that day.  We’ll go right back up to the upper 70s by Friday.  I’ve taken the rain chances out for Friday.   The next cold front will move in late Friday night into Saturday.  Unlike last weekend, this next front looks to stall out just south of the region.  Some scattered showers will move along this front, but they won’t last the entire weekend.  In fact some of the model trends have been do put in a lot more time in-between the showers.  It does look like some rain on both Saturday and Sunday.  For now it looks like the better chance will be on Sunday, but I’d wait before you solidify any outdoor plans.

As far as the total lunar eclipse….Weeelll….  It could be tough to see it.  First off…the weather.  We are looking at partly cloudy skies tomorrow morning.  It’s tough to say if the clouds will allow for viewing, but I’m optimistic for now.  Perhaps they will be very thin.  We’ll see.  Then there’s the astronomical hurdles.

Total Lunar Eclipse

Total Lunar Eclipse

The eclipse will really start going around 5 am, but it won’t be in full until about 6:30 am.  It’s a pretty slow process.  The sun will rise at 7:06 am.  This will allow for a brief window where you (may) be able to see the rising sun and the setting eclipsed moon at the same time.  The problem is that the moon sets at 7:11am.  With the moon getting darker during the pre-dawn twilight it may be tough to see it for a while.  So the window will be brief.  In fact the moon is typically not visible when it is 1-2 degrees above the horizon.  Especially if there is haze.  So there is even less time really.

Now some may ask.  If the moon and the sun are directly opposite, how can we see them at the same time?  Especially with the earth exactly in-between the two.  The answer is refraction.

Refraction Of Light

Refraction Of Light

Light bends around the earth and makes the moon and sun appear a little higher than they actually are.  Here is a link with more information about that.  Eclipse And Light Refraction.  So the odds are decent of seeing the eclipse itself (if the clouds cooperate), but there is a much lower chance of seeing the sun and moon at the same time.  If you get any cool photos, then please send them to reportit@wavy.com.  Good luck junior astronomers! May the odds be with you.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Total Lunar Eclipse Soon

October 6th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

Normally, I start off by talking about the local weather story.  However, meteorologist Tiffany Savona already did a good job of that last night.  So here is her blog with the details: Tiffany’s Weather Blog.

Since she had the local weather covered, I wanted to mention an upcoming celestial event.  There will be a total lunar eclipse this next Wednesday morning (Oct. 8th).  However, it may be difficult to see.  First off there is likely to be at least some clouds in the region.  They may clear out in time, but we’ll see.  Secondly, the window to see it will be fairly brief.  This is because it will happen just a little before the moon sets, and shortly after the sun rises.  So due to the curvature of the earth and refraction you will be able to see both at the same time. (Weather pending).  This is called a syzygy.   Here’s a link with more information.  Total lunar Eclipse.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cooler Weather Is Short-Lived

October 5th, 2014 at 9:14 pm by under Weather

It was a perfect fall day in my opinion! A bit chilly in the morning with lows in the 40s for most areas. But some of our inland spots saw lows in the 30s this morning! It was the coolest morning since last spring, more specifically last April. The record low at Norfolk Airport this morning was 40° set back in 1974. So we didn’t break any records, but we were close.

Lows This Morning

Lows This Morning

High temperatures did reach the mid 60s this afternoon. We saw this cooler weather thanks to a big dip in the jet stream this weekend. A strong cold front moved in on Saturday. Cooler and drier air from Canada moved into the northern U.S. and continued to push south this weekend.

Big Dip in the Jet Stream

Big Dip in the Jet Stream This Weekend

We are going to have ideal conditions (clear skies and light winds) for radiational cooling overnight. This means that all of the heat that was stored during the day will escape back into space at night. This process allows temperatures to drop quickly overnight. Sometimes the temperature can drop all the way to the dew point temperature. When this happens fog develops (frost develops if temperatures are at or below 32 degrees.) Tomorrow morning will be similar to what we experienced this morning. Upper 30s west, low to mid 40s for most areas and then upper 40s close to the coast. Make sure you give the kids the sweater/sweatshirt/jacket before they head out to catch the school bus in the morning.

Forecast Lows Overnight

Forecast Lows Overnight

Southwesterly winds will take over tomorrow and help temperatures rise into the mid 70s Monday afternoon. The jet stream is going to move north by the middle of the week, which is going to allow warmer air to move in by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Warm Air Returns This Week

Warm Air Returns This Week

The weather will stay quiet this week with the jet stream sliding to our north. A weak mid-level disturbance will produce showers to our north and west Tuesday night. A few of these showers may move into Hampton Roads late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but chances are low. It looks like most of the rain will stay north of us. Highs will be in the upper 70s on Tuesday and around 80° on Wednesday. Our next cold front will arrive this weekend and bring us a better chance for rain Friday night into Saturday. If the front stalls out, we could be talking about more rain on Sunday. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona