Weather

Sunny & Cooler Today

November 8th, 2014 at 8:57 am by under Weather

Another batch of cooler air has moved across our area this morning. At least this weekend we will see sunshine thanks to an area of high pressure in control. (Remember we had the coastal storm with 50mph winds last weekend) Our temperatures were cold this morning.

A Few Low Temperatures

  • 26, Corapeake
  • 28, Franklin
  • 29, Gatesville

Other temperatures in out area were in the low-30s this morning. Many of you had a heavy frost across your lawns.

High Pressure In Control

High Pressure In Control

That area of high pressure should give us sunshine all morning and into the afternoon. We should see a few more clouds this evening as a new storm system develops over the ocean. This storm will stay off our coast, but may bring some rain for the OBX tomorrow morning. Cloud cover is also likely tomorrow morning for our area. We should see more sunshine tomorrow afternoon. Highs on Sunday should be near 61 degrees. Our wind speeds will be much lighter this weekend. Wind from the south at 5-10mph today and north at 5-10mph tomorrow.

Have a great weekend!


Chilly Weekend Coming Up

November 7th, 2014 at 8:16 am by under Weather

Some folks had some pretty rowdy weather yesterday evening.  Others saw a brief gust of wind with a brief downpour and that was it.  There weren’t too many thunderstorms, but the winds did gust above 40mph in a few locations.  From the sound of it things were very windy with heavy downpours on the Eastern Shore.

Heavy Rain Yesterday

Heavy Rain Yesterday

My weather watcher on the lower Eastern Shore (Doris) had about an inch of rain, and she said that the wind was strong for a while.  Meanwhile Mike in Whaleyville only had a tenth of an inch of rain, and the wind wasn’t too bad.  Here are some rain totals for the region:

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

Today we’ll have a lot of sunshine at first.  Then an upper level pocket of energy will move through the region.  This will increase the clouds, and could even produce a sprinkle.  Winds will be northwest at 10-20mph.  So highs will only rise to around 60.  Tonight it will be pretty cold out.  Winds will die down to northerly at 5-10mph.  Lows will be in the 30s with some 40s near the shore.

Low Temps Tonight

Low Temps Tonight

Tomorrow we’ll have a lot of sunshine for the entire day.  However, we’ll only see highs in the upper 50s to near 60.   Winds will turn out of the south at 5-10mph.   On Sunday I’m still seeing an offshore area of low pressure on the models.  For now I’m only calling for a few showers over the Outer Banks.  The models still aren’t in full agreement about the moisture from the system.  One model has quite a bit of rain for the Outer Banks and a few showers in northeast North Carolina.  Meanwhile another model has our region totally dry.  So check back for updates, but I think the Hampton Roads area will remain dry on Sunday.  We will warm up early next week, but some much colder air will move in by the end of the week.  The models are calling for another Arctic Blast.  Some say it will be tied into a very strong area of low pressure that will impact Alaska in the next 2 days.  I’m not sure about the teleconnection, but the jetstream will definitely be heading south at that time.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Moisture Plume, And 2 Cool Links.

November 6th, 2014 at 9:11 am by under Weather

The moisture has really increased over the last 24 hours.  We were very dry over the last couple of days, but my how we’ve changed.  What’s interesting is how far reaching the plume of moisture is.  It is crawling up from the Gulf of Mexico and reaches all the way into the Canadian Maritimes.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The moisture has led to a lot of rain over parts of Texas.  This has all pushed east, and the rain has now made it into Hampton Roads.

Rain In The Region

Rain In The Region

The moisture was focused out ahead of a large cold front.  That front is sweeping east/southeast out of the Midwest this morning.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

We’ll be cloudy all day so we won’t get too warm.  But with pretty persistent southwest winds at 10-15mph we’ll raise the temperatures up to the low 70s.
Scattered showers will occur on and off today.  This afternoon we could even see a few thunderstorms, although the instability will be rather low.  Here is what Future Trak shows for 3pm.

Future Trak 3pm

Future Trak 3pm

The front will move in during the evening and will start dropping our temperatures to the low/mid 60s.  Winds will turn out of the west. Then the rain will shut down by this evening around 9-10pm.  Overall we’re looking at about a quarter to a half an inch of rain.  I would suspect that the quarter inches will be more common.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

Tomorrow we’ll dry out and cool down.  Highs will be in the low 60s.  Winds will be northwest at 10-15mph.  We’ll have fair skies.  We’ll see lows in the 30s and 40s Saturday morning.  Then highs will only rise to the mid 50s on Saturday afternoon. We will be dry.  I mentioned in the last couple of blogs that a weak offshore low would form on Sunday.  The latest models have dried things up quite a bit.  They have the low weaker and farther out to sea now.  So there may be a few showers for the Outer Banks, but otherwise Sunday is looking pretty good.  However, I’ve kept in a slight chance for a shower for Sunday only because of the recent flip-flopping. I’ll probably take out the rain chances completely by this midday.  We’ll warm up early next week, but we’ll see a big cool down later in the week.

In world news…This was brought to my attention recently by a viewer.  Apparently the super typhoon Nuri in the Pacific Ocean is poised to become a monster storm in the north Pacific.  It will become extratropical as it interacts with some colder air.   I checked out a link with more info, and it’s possible this could become one of the strongest non-tropical areas of low pressure ever recorded.  Here’s the link with more information: Monster Pacific Storm. 

I also found this cool link that shows how humans have impacted some of their surroundings.  It talks a little about Global Warming, but it mostly shows (via NASA satellite) how land use and pollution have changed large areas of geography.  Here is the link for that: Humans Change The Environment.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Clouds Aloft, But Dry Below

November 5th, 2014 at 8:45 am by under Weather

It’s been like that lately.  We’ve seen the clouds overhead, but the surface has been very dry.  In fact my coworkers have been mentioning that their clothes have been very staticky lately even though it’s not Winter yet.  You see, dry air allows electrical charge to build up on objects whereas more humid conditions will let the charge dissipate a little bit.  So there’s less of a build-up.  At least that’s my understanding of it.  Currently the dew points are in the 30s.

Regional Dew Points

Regional Dew Points

The humidity should pick up a little more tomorrow.  If it doesn’t, then the rain chances will decrease.  This area actually needs some rain.  We are in the typically driest part of the year, but overall 2014 has been a wet year.  We have had 0.09″ of rain over the past few days.  We finished October with 1.57″ which was 1.85″ below the average for that month.  We are ahead 2.67″ for the year, but remember we had a real wet period there for a while.  Especially this last Summer.  We are expecting scattered showers tomorrow which will bring a couple tenths of an inch to the region.  We may see some more rain on Sunday, but it’s not a definite.

So let’s back up for a second and talk about the weather pattern.  Today we have a lot of clouds in the region with rain over parts of the Midwest.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The drier lower levels should erode the clouds at least a bit.  So I’m expecting them to thin out a bit around midday.  Skies will go between mostly and partly cloudy skies.  Luckily we’ll have southwest winds at 8-12mph.  So temps will still manage to reach the low 70s.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

The front to our west will pick up some speed and will move in by late tomorrow.  We’ll see a few showers ahead of the front in the morning, but we’ll see more showers during the midday and the afternoon.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

We may even see a few thunderstorms as the front passes, but overall the rain will be light and occasional.  Here is Future Trak at 3pm Thursday:

Future Trak (3pm Thursday)

Future Trak (3pm Thursday)

The rain will pull out by Thursday evening.  Then we’ll dry out for Friday.  Highs will be in the 70s tomorrow before the front dives in.  Then we’ll see highs near 60 on Friday.  We’ll be chilly on Saturday with fair skies. Highs will be in the low 50s.  On Sunday we’ll still be cool, but an area of low pressure may bring some rain to the region.  For now it looks like the low and most of the rain will stay offshore.  However, the models keep going back and forth on how close it all is to Hampton Roads.  One model yesterday had a deluge over us.  The same model run prior to that was almost totally dry.  We’ll have to let the models settle out before we can get a good forecast.  I hope this is not a sign of what’s to come.  If this happens over the Winter, then we may be calling for flurries one day and a foot of snow the next.  Can’t wait…. (sarcasm).

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Election Day Forecast And Winter Forecasts

November 4th, 2014 at 8:34 am by under Weather

How’s the weather out there?  Nice!  That what most folks will say today.  It will be great weather for voters in the region.  We started off with some milder temperatures this morning.  Lows were in the 40s and 50s instead of the 20s, 30s, and 40s that we had the day before.  Light southwest winds and a little cloud cover helped prop up the overnight temps.  High pressure will stay in the region today, but it will move offshore a bit.  So we’ll hold onto the southwest winds and sunshine through the day.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

It’s also very dry outside.  The relative humidity yesterday afternoon had dropped to 20-30%.  Today the dew points are only in the 20s and 30s.

Regional Dew Points

Regional Dew Points

That is bone-dry.  We won’t get much moisture back in here until Thursday.  We’ll be dry and mild for the next couple of days. Then a cold front will move through the region late Thursday.  We’ll get some scattered rain showers then.  By Friday we’ll cool down a little.  Highs will be near 60.  Then we’ll be even cooler on Saturday with highs in the 50s.  On Sunday a weak area of low pressure will form offshore.  It may bring a few showers to the region. but at this time the rain chances look low.  Yesterday the models had it bringing rain right into the region.  Now the models keep the rain just offshore. Stay tuned.

In science news there is one update that I thought was worth mentioning.  I’ll admit I’ve never heard of “Far-Infrared Radiation”.  At least I’ve never heard of it called that.  However, there is some new research that suggests that it may partly be behind warming in the Arctic.  Here is the article with more: Far-Infrared Warming.

On that note… I found another neat article about Winter Forecasts and their accuracy.  It is a bit regional at times (Midwest), but still has some interesting points.  Winter Forecasts Accurate?

If we keep up our current weather pattern, then it is only a matter of time before we get hit with some big snow.  These huge upper level lows keep moving across the country with large cold surges right behind.  As we get into the colder months these features are likely to move more to the south.  So any coastal lows that form will be capable of throwing snow up our way.  We’ll see if the pattern changes, but overall it hasn’t changed much in the last year.  We’ll see what happens.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Trying To Warm Up

November 3rd, 2014 at 8:49 am by under Weather

It was a very cold start to the day.  As predicted, temperatures fell to the 20s and 30s inland with some 40s near the shore.

Temps This Morning

Temps This Morning

The wind was up for a bit along the shore, then it dropped before sunrise.  So temps dropped in Virginia Beach to the 30s after holding in the 40s most of the night.  The sun came out, and it will warm us up nicely this afternoon.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High pressure is in control of the region.  So we’ll see a lot clear skies for the next 48 hours.  Temps will warm up to near 60 today with a light west wind.  Winds will turn out of the southwest tonight That should keep the temps a few degrees milder overnight.  Lows will be in the 40s in the metro and near the shore with 30s inland.  Don’t get me wrong though… It will still be quite chilly.

Tomorrow we’ll continue with a southwest wind.  With the ample sunshine we’ll manage to get into the low 70s.

Temperature Trend

Temperature Trend

We’ll stay in the 70s on Wednesday and Thursday.  Then a sizable cold front will move through the region.  This will start dropping the temperatures by Friday.  We’ll see scattered showers with the front on Thursday into early Friday.  We are looking mostly at a cool dry weekend next Saturday and Sunday.  It doesn’t look as cold as this last weekend, but it will be chilly. Highs will be in the 50s both days.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.  The models are showing some scattered showers trying to come back later on Sunday.  They may hold off until the evening.  We’ll refine those details as it gets closer.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Freeze Warning In Effect Tonight!

November 2nd, 2014 at 8:55 pm by under Weather

The coastal storm that brought us rain, strong winds and higher tides is now bringing snow and strong winds to New England tonight.

Coastal Low To Our North

Coastal Low To Our North

Here are some of the peak wind speeds that were recorded over the past 24 hours.

Peak Wind Speeds

Peak Wind Speeds

Wind speeds have come down, the clouds have cleared out and high pressure is building in from the west, which is a perfect recipe for a cold morning ahead.  Inland areas could see the first freeze of the season early Monday morning. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all areas in purple.

Freeze Warning

Freeze Warning In Effect Overnight

Here are the forecast lows for the metro area tonight.

Forecast Lows Monday Morning

Forecast Lows Monday Morning

If you live in an area where temperatures are expected to drop below freezing, then cover or bring any sensitive plants inside to avoid damage. Don’t forget about your pets! Bring them inside too! Keep in mind that areas in Chesapeake, Portsmouth and Williamsburg are going to be close to freezing. So I would protect your plants in these areas too, just in case the temperature drops a few more degrees at your house. Here is a wider view to include areas outside the metro. Inland areas in North Carolina will also see temperatures at or below freezing. The Eastern Shore should remain above freezing because winds will be a little bit stronger there (10-20mph overnight).

Forecast Lows Monday Morning

Forecast Lows Monday Morning

Is it normal to see our first freeze/frost for inland spots in early November? After looking at the graphic below, the answer is YES.

First Freeze/Frost Dates

Average First Freeze/Frost Dates

Keep in mind that these numbers are averages over time. So it is possible that the first freeze may come before or after these dates.

Quick update on the tides. Water levels went way down during high tide at 5:02 this evening. However, we may see another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding Monday morning around 5:32 AM. So, water levels should be a little bit lower than what we saw early this morning.

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Nuisance to minor tidal flooding will also be possible on the bay side of the Eastern Shore around 5:06 Monday morning.

*Make sure the kids have the heavier coats tomorrow morning. After seeing temperatures in the 30s, we expect to see highs rise into the upper 50s to around 60° by Monday afternoon. We should warm up even more Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with highs back in the 70s. Our next cold front arrives Thursday bringing another chance for rain and cooler weather by the weekend.

Have a great week everyone!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 

 


Rain & Sleet To Start Our Sunday

November 2nd, 2014 at 8:59 am by under Weather

Temperatures were so cold in the upper atmosphere that a few of you may have seen sleet this morning.

Sleet Diagram

Sleet Diagram

As the snowflakes fall through the warm layer, they melt. Temperatures then caused some of the liquid to refreeze before falling to the ground, which is sleet. The sleet won’t accumulate or cause any travel problems for our area today.

Another thing that I have been tracking is the winds; wind speeds were around 20mph this morning.

Another Windy Day

Another Windy Day

It will be a windy and cold day across our area. Temperatures will stay cool with highs only at 50 degrees this afternoon. We will see some sunshine this afternoon which will improve conditions a bit. Tonight the wind should die off. Calm winds an clear skies will equal cold temperatures tonight. Some folks could see lows in the low 30s.

Freeze Watch

Freeze Watch

A freeze watch has been issued for the light blue counties and cities. Temps will dip below freezing for several hours tonight which could kill tender plants.

Over the next few high tide cycles we will continue to see nuisance flooding.

Next High Tide: 5pm

Next High Tide: 5pm

For the next few days will will see sunshine and a warming trend. Highs will be near 60 tomorrow, near 70 on Tuesday and then mid 70s by Wednesday.

Stay Warm Today!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

 


Winds & Tides Peak Overnight

November 1st, 2014 at 9:15 pm by under Weather

Wind speeds and tides will peak early Sunday morning as an area of low pressure strengthens offshore. Scattered light showers are possible on and off this evening, but the main impacts from this coastal storm will be the strong winds and the tidal flooding. Almost all areas have seen less than 0.25″ of rain so far today and the rain is almost done. Winds will be strongest along the coastline. Here is the forecast. Gusts could exceed 50mph along the coast. Virginia Beach just saw a wind gust up to 53mph as I’m typing this blog.

Wind Forecast

Overnight Wind Forecast

Here is a closer look at the metro area.

Wind Forecast

Overnight Wind Forecast

Tides will be running much higher than normal overnight. Moderate soundside flooding will be possible across the Outer Banks. There will likely overwash along Highway 12. The worst of the tidal flooding will be across the Southside because we have a northerly wind. So the wind is pushing the water down the Bay and it piles up near Sewells Point. Sewells Point, Yorktown and Kiptopeke are locations where tidal gauges are kept. This diagram shows which areas are affected by each tidal gauge. When we refer to Sewells Point, it is a good benchmark for the Southside cities and even parts of the Peninsula along the James River.

Tidal Gauge Locations

Tidal Gauge Locations

If you saw tidal flooding around 5 PM this evening across the Southside, then you will definitely see additional tidal flooding around high tide Sunday morning (4:31 AM). Keep in mind that flooding will be possible about an hour or so before high tide and an hour or so after high tide. Here is the forecast.

Sewells Point Tides

Sewells Point Tides

Areas along the Chesapeake Bay on the Eastern Shore could see MODERATE tidal flooding tomorrow morning around 4:05 AM. Here is the forecast for Kiptopeke.

Kiptopeke Tides

Kiptopeke Tides

MINOR tidal flooding will be possible for areas affected by the York River. See map above. Here is the forecast for Yorktown.

Yorktown Tides

Yorktown Tides

***If you live in a flood prone area, move your car to higher ground ASAP. You want to make sure your boat is tied up as well.

The rain will taper off tonight and temperatures will drop into the upper 30s inland and lower 40s along the coast by tomorrow morning. Winds speeds will gradually die down throughout the day tomorrow. Wind speeds will still range from 20-30mph Sunday morning, but by Sunday afternoon winds will only be running between 10-20mph. Sunday’s highs will only be in the upper 40s to around 50° and the wind will make it feel even COLDER. So make sure you have a warm jacket as you head to those church services in the morning.

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater and I will have the latest and most up-to-date forecast coming up on WAVY News 10 at 11. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will be here in the morning tracking the tides and will have the latest on WAVY News 10 starting at 6 AM.

***REMINDER: TURN YOUR CLOCKS BACK 1 HOUR BEFORE BED TONIGHT!***

Fall Back Tonight!

Fall Back Tonight!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Coastal Storm Brings High Winds Today

November 1st, 2014 at 9:07 am by under Weather

This morning folks in western Virginia and North Carolina say 2-3 inches of heavy wet snow. That area of snow will fade away before it gets close to us. However, the cold air will not fade away.

Below is the video forecast:

A few highlights from the video:

Tides Increasing

Tides Increasing

Wind Gusts Later Today

Wind Gusts Later Today

Less than 0.50" of rain expected.

Less than 0.50″ of rain expected.

Remember, temperatures will be in the 30s tonight and tomorrow night. We could even see patchy frost.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson