Weather

Wet Start To The Work Week

April 6th, 2014 at 9:19 pm by under Weather

It is going to be a wet start to the week, but at least we had nice weather over the weekend. The clouds have already moved in and should thicken up tonight ahead of the rain. All of the rain and thunderstorm activity is located to our south right now.

Satellite/Radar at 8 PM

Satellite/Radar at 8 PM Sunday

This stationary front is going to lift northward as a warm front tonight. That means the warm air and the moisture will be lifting northward as well, heading in our direction. Severe weather is possible tonight across Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. These areas will be just south of the warm front and closest to that area of low pressure which is tracking east. Our Future Trak model has the rain pushing in anytime after 5 AM. The rain should be scattered around 7 AM for your morning commute, so it may not be raining at every location at that time.

Future Trak at 7 AM Monday

Future Trak at 7 AM Monday

Rain becomes even more widespread by 12 PM. A warm front will move northward through the region tomorrow afternoon. This warm front will bring in warm air and an increase in moisture. Once the warm front moves in, temperatures will really start to rise, even though it will be raining.

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

With warmer air, an increase in moisture and a lot of wind shear, we may see a few thunderstorms develop during the late afternoon and evening hours. Best chance for storms will be across Southside Virginia and North Carolina where we will have slightly warmer air. I think the chance for severe weather across Hampton Roads is going to be on the low end. We will have the warm air in place with temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, we are going to be lacking some moisture at the surface. Dew point temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 50s, maybe 60 degrees. We like to see dew point readings well into the 60s if we are talking about the potential for stronger storms. The rain and the clouds should keep the instability down. The best lift or energy associated with this storm system won’t move in until after sunset, which is not the most favorable time frame for severe storms. I am not completely ruling out the chance for stronger storms. There may be one or two that can get going with all of the wind shear in place, especially out in front of the cold front. But, at this time, it doesn’t look like we will have a good chance for severe weather. Stay tuned for any changes.

We may see a few breaks in the rain during the early evening hours before another round of heavier rain moves into the region. Thunderstorm chances will be increasing late Monday night before the cold front moves through Hampton Roads. Future Trak has a line of scattered showers and storms at this time.

Future Trak at 12 AM Tuesday

Future Trak at 12 AM Tuesday

The cold front will move in Tuesday morning. Computer models have changed their tune a little bit regarding the ending time of the rain. Now it looks like the rain will linger into Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening for coastal areas. The front should stall offshore, but an area of low pressure will develop along it. An upper level trough will still be located overhead, so we will have plenty of moisture to work with on Tuesday. Therefore, rain will stay in the forecast through Tuesday night. Check out the forecast rain totals through Tuesday night.

Monday-Tuesday Rain Totals

Monday-Tuesday Rain Totals

Rain totals should average anywhere between 1-1.5 inches of rain. Some areas that see heavier rain/thunderstorms could see totals up to 2 inches, maybe more. Norfolk Airport is now 0.75 inches below average for the year, so we do need a dose of some healthy rain.

I will have another update on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Make sure you tune into WAVY News 10 Today starting at 4:30 AM. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will be tracking the rain for you on Super Doppler 10 Live Radar. Don’t forget the umbrella!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Cool & Dry…For Now

April 6th, 2014 at 8:33 am by under Weather

We started off today with cool temps and sunshine.  Lows were in the 30s by West Point and Richmond, but it was in the 40s elsewhere.  We were much cooler due to the cold front that brushed through here on Saturday.  Today the front is well to the south.  We saw more clouds to the south as well.  High pressure was building in.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll stay dry today, but northeasterly winds will keep it cool with highs in the low/mid 50s.  Clouds will push back from the south later today.  So we’ll go from mostly sunny to partly cloudy through the day in southeast Virginia.  By late tonight some of the moisture will push up from the south.  We could see a few showers before sunrise tomorrow.  Then through the day rain will be on and off.  We could even see a few thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Future Trak (Noon Monday)

Future Trak (Noon Monday)

Rain will continue not only into Monday night, but now it looks to stretch through midday Tuesday.  With that in mind, I’m surprised that the forecast rain totals aren’t higher.  Overall it looks like we’ll see about a half an inch.  Some locations could see closer to an inch.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

At least it will be in the 60s both tomorrow and Tuesday.  We will cool down and dry out for Wednesday.  Highs in the low/mid 50s.  Then we’ll rise back up to the 609s on Thursday and 70s by Friday.

2 things to note before I go.  First, many folks are planting flowers in the yard and garden.  You may want to wait just a bit longer.  We had some mid 30s this morning over some northern parts of the viewing area.  We could easily see one more frost over the next couple of weeks.  Especially since this has been a colder year so far.  If you do plant, then be ready to cover them up if a frost does arrive.

Second, the pollen has really increased over the past 2-3 days.  It’s due to the warmer soil temperatures and the natural tree cycle.  The grass will start pollinating soon as well.  So expect the pollen to really increase over the next 3-4 days.  It will be down a bit today with the offshore breeze and tomorrow and Tuesday due to the rain.  But it will be back up by next Wednesday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Beautiful, But Cooler, Weekend Ahead!

April 5th, 2014 at 9:12 am by under Weather

Get ready for a beautiful weekend across Hampton Roads! It will be much cooler compared to yesterday when we saw highs in the mid 80s! Norfolk Airport recorded a high temperature of 85° Friday afternoon, which was only 1° shy of the record high of 86° set back in 2011. Talk about some heat!

Friday's High Temperatures

Friday’s High Temperatures

Areas north of the metro did see a little bit of rain last night as showers and storms moved across our northern zones. Our weather watcher Don in Toano said he heard thunder around midnight and Jan in Reedville heard thunder a little after midnight. Most of the metro did stay dry.

Last Night's Satellite/Radar

Last Night’s Satellite/Radar at 12:30 AM

Patchy fog did develop across the Eastern Shore, Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula this morning. These areas were north of the front, where temperatures cooled back down into the 50s. Once the cold front moves through your neighborhood, expect temperatures to drop a few degrees before rising back up this afternoon. Norfolk was at 66° at 8 AM and has now dropped to 49° as of 9 AM.

9 AM Temperatures

9 AM Temperatures

Areas in the 60s should drop back down into the 50s once the front moves through this morning before rising back into the 60s this afternoon. It should be cooler along the coast with afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Inland spots should warm up into the upper 60s. The cold front brought cooler air into Norfolk dropping the temperature down into the upper 40s, which was close to the dew point temperature. This is how fog developed in Norfolk and along the beaches. The northerly wind coming off of the cooler water (water temperature around 49°) helped to reinforce the cool air in place. Check out the view from Lynnhaven Inlet.

Foggy at Lynnhaven Inlet

Foggy at Lynnhaven Inlet

Make sure you bring the jacket with you if you are headed to Harbor Park tonight to cheer on the Norfolk Tides. Temperatures will be in the lower 50s around the start of the game and will drop into the upper 40s by the end of the game. Sunday will be even cooler with highs only in the mid 50s. This is what our Future Trak has at 5 PM Sunday.

Future Trak Temperatures

Future Trak Temperatures at 5 PM Sunday

Enjoy the nice weather this weekend because rain and storms will move back in Monday morning.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


The Big Warmup…Plus Lasers & Lightning.

April 4th, 2014 at 8:32 am by under Weather

We are advertising a big warmup for today.  While some inland temperatures have recently been as warm as the mid 80s, it has been much cooler near the shore each day.  Today a warm southwest breeze will be picking up.  That should be able to push the warmth to the shoreline. Also a warm front is lifting through the region.  Hampton Roads was on the cool side of the front this morning.  So we cooled down to near 50, and patchy fog formed.  The fog will burn off later this morning.  Then we’ll see clearing and Summer-like conditions:

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

I’m calling for highs in the mid-upper 80s inland, upper 70s to low 80s in the metro, and 70s near the shore.  The Eastern Shore will be tougher to warm up.  So highs will be in the 60s and 70s there.  Winds will be southwest at 10-15mph. It may take a while for the wind to really develop.  So it may be later this afternoon before some of you see the warming.

It will be nice this evening when many of you get off of work.  Skies will be partly cloudy and temps will be in the 70s and low 80s.  It should be good for the Norfolk Tides game tonight.  During the overnight a cold front will move through the region.  It will bring us some scattered showers.  There has been a lot of strong storms to our west, but the center of the storm system (area of low pressure) is moving northeast through the Midwest.  So basically it’s only the front that will cause the rain, and as it moves east it will dwindle down to just some scattered showers.  Tomorrow we’ll dry out early.  Saturday is looking good.  We’ll have a westerly wind at 10-15mph, and skies will be partly sunny.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 60s.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

We’ll stay dry then through Sunday, but it will be cooler.  Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Highs will be in the mid 50s.  We’ll warm up on Monday, but there will be rain through most of the day.  There could be a few thunderstorms too depending on how much warmth moves in.  We’ll have another cool-down by the middle of next week, but it doesn’t look too cold.  There could be a little snow over the Appalachians though.  None of that here in the 7 day forecast.

The weather looks good for the Daffodil festival in Gloucester this weekend.  It will be dry both Saturday and Sunday.  Highs will be in the 60s on Saturday…50s on Sunday.

Before I go…I found this new article about lasers and lightning.  This article from Digitaltrends.com talks about how lasers could be used to direct lightning away from objects.  Very interesting. Here is the link: Lightning and lasers.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Here Come Some Changes

April 3rd, 2014 at 8:21 am by under Weather

After some clouds in the morning, skies cleared nicely yesterday.  This allowed some of the inland temperatures to skyrocket into the 80s.  Meanwhile it warmed to the 60s near the coast.  Then temps fell back to the 50s as the winds shifted from offshore.  A cool front/wind-shift line moved through yesterday and helped to push the winds from the east.  Now that boundary is sitting over the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

As the day goes on, the boundary will slowly drift north.  A few showers are possible along this front.  We already saw a couple of showers north of the metro.  Highs will be mixed again, however, the clouds should stop the temperatures from being as dramatically different as they were yesterday.  So I’m thinking highs will be in the mid-upper 70s inland with a few 80s possible.  Upper 60s to low 70s in the metro.  Then 60s near the shore.

Another shower or two is possible tonight with lows in the 50s.  Tomorrow a strong area of low pressure will form over the Midwest while our local area of high pressure drifts east.  This will allow for the winds to pick up out of the southwest.  Skies will go to partly cloudy.  The April sun will allow for strong warming, and this time the wind should be able to push back the cooler air that sits over the water.  So highs tomorrow will be near 80 for many.  We’ll probably hit the mid 80s inland.  It will feel like early Summer.

Then a cold front will move through late tomorrow night into early Saturday morning.  It will cool things down for the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s on Saturday and mid 50s on Sunday.  Other than a few showers early Saturday, the weekend looks dry.

In the national news…They had some rough storms over the central U.S. yesterday.  The Storm Prediction Center has put a moderate risk for severe storms and tornadoes out for states in the central Mississippi River Valley for today.  This is due to a strong upper level trough and a lot warmth and humidity out there.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Almost A Repeat

April 2nd, 2014 at 8:32 am by under Weather

As advertised…yesterday had some mixed temperatures.  There was a big difference between the inland and coastal cities.

Highs Yesterday

Highs Yesterday

I don’t believe that it made it up to 74 in Kill Devil Hills, but I’m checking on that.  Regardless, today we’ll see similar weather.  Highs will be just a bit warmer.  We’ll see temps near 60 along the shore, mid-upper 60s in the metro, and it will warm to the mid-upper 70s inland.

Today's High Temps

Today’s High Temps

During the afternoon we’ll see the sea breeze kick-in along with a wind shift line.  Winds will be variable at 5-10mph, but will be more easterly during the afternoon.  So some temperatures near the shore will cool down to the mid 50s.  We’ll be dry again today.  Then tomorrow the wind-shift/trough will push back north.  This will give us some spotty showers during the afternoon.  For now I’ve kept the chance for rain at 20%, but I may have to raise it.  Highs will be a little warmer, but will be fairly mixed again.  On Friday we’ll have a different setup.  Winds will be strong out of the south.  They’ll be strong enough to stop the sea-breeze.  Therefore highs will be in the upper 70s across much of the region.  We’ll probably see some 80s inland.  On Saturday a cold front will move through early.  This will give us a few showers into the early morning, and then we’ll dry out.  Highs will be in the upper 60s Saturday.  We’ll be dry and cool on Sunday. Highs will be in the mid 50s.

A big area of low pressure will develop over the Midwest next Monday.  It will move through northern Virginia.  This will give us a better chance for rain along with some thunderstorms.  A few showers could linger on into Tuesday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Mixed Temps

April 1st, 2014 at 9:34 am by under Weather

Today will be a quiet weather day, but it won’t be a simple forecast.  Temperatures will be tricky.  One easy thing is that the winds have died down.  Yesterday an area of low pressure lingered offshore from the northeast states as high pressure was building into our region from the west.  This created the strong northwest wind.

High Pressure & Sunshine

High Pressure & Sunshine

Today the high will sit right on top of us.  This will make for fair skies and light winds.  The wind will be light and easterly at times, but overall the direction will vary.  As we get into the midday hours the air temperatures will quickly warm to the 50s and 60s.  Remember though that the water temperatures are really cool for this time of year.  They are still in the 40s.  Even some of the nearby ocean temperatures.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.cf.gif

Sea Surface Temperatures

This will be a good setup for a sea breeze to form.  This is a common occurrence, but today it will be more amplified.  When the warm air over land heats up, it rises.  Meanwhile, the cooler water temperatures keep the air cool above it, and this promotes sinking.  The sinking air has to go somewhere.  So it spreads out over the water and onto land.

Sea Breeze

Sea Breeze

The cooler air moves inland and can travel anywhere from 10 city blocks up to 20 miles depending on the local winds and the temperature difference.   So this setup will let our inland temps warm to the low 70s while temps along the shore will likely be in the upper 50s.

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Temperatures

This is our model, but it does show the general outline.  I think Virginia Beach will be in the upper 50s.  Norfolk and Newport News in the 60s.  I do think Williamsburg will make it to the low 70s.

By tomorrow the winds should be more out of the south.  It still won’t be a strong wind, but it may be enough to stop the sea breeze from forming.  Highs will generally be in the 70s with 60s near the shore.  We’ll see highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday with dry conditions.  Rain showers are expected on Saturday, but at least it still looks warm.  Another cool down will approach into Sunday, but at least this time it looks dry unlike last weekend.

They say if you don’t like the weather in Hampton Roads, then just wait 10 minutes…It will change.  Well today if you don’t like the temperature, then just drive 10 minutes west or east.  You’ll find something you like.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


What’s That Yellow Orb?

March 31st, 2014 at 8:14 am by under Weather

As meteorologist Tiffany Savona correctly indicated in her previous blog/forecast…. there is a large yellow orb in the sky today, and it isn’t a UFO.  The sun has come out after hiding all weekend.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

The forecast is very easy for once.  After some clouds along the coast this morning we’ll see lots of sunshine today with highs near 60.  Winds have been breezy this morning with northwest winds at 10-20mph and gusts up to 30mph near the shore.  The winds will taper off this afternoon as high pressure builds in.  We’ll see dry conditions and highs in the 60s and 70s for the next few days.  The next chance for rain will be late Friday.  It may even hold off until Friday night.  I’m ready for a nice stretch of dry/mild weather.

In national news there is a new report from the United Nations today.  There is another part of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report which has just been released.  It is making headlines across the country.  Here is the article from Reuters: U.N. report.  The report is probably very hard to believe after this year’s Winter in the Midwest and Northeast states.

Lately the snow has melted over a large area.  Especially in the Midwest.

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201403/nsm_depth_2014033105_National.jpg

snow cover across the U.S. from NOAA

I haven’t seen large reports of flooding, although there is still snow in the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast.  Has the Midwest dodged a flood bullet?  There’s still a lot of snow across northern Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan.  So we’ll see how they fare over the next month.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Who Is Ready For The Sunshine?

March 30th, 2014 at 8:32 pm by under Weather

After a rainy and gloomy weekend, I think we are all in need of some sunshine.

View of out Tower Cam 10 today

View of out Tower Cam 10 Earlier Today

There was severe weather across North Carolina last night. A tornado was reported near Garner, south of Raleigh, around 9 PM last night.  This tornado was confirmed by the National Weather Service and rated an EF-0 with estimated maximum sustained winds of 80mph. Minor damage was reported.

Last Night's Storm Reports

Last Night’s Storm Reports

We did not see severe weather, but we did see a decent amount of rain, especially north of the metro. Over the past 48 hours, many locations picked up at least 0.5 inches of rain with many spots seeing over 1 inch. Pam in Gloucester reported having just over 2 inches in her rain gauge.

48-Hour Rain Totals

48-Hour Rain Totals

Where does this put us for the month of March? Many spots have picked up between 2-4 inches for the month, which is above average for some and below average for others.

Departure From Average for March

Departure From Average for March

The rain will slowly come to an end from west to east tonight as an area of low pressure slowly pushes away from us. Scattered showers will be possible until midnight. Our Future Trak shows most of the rain ending by 12 AM.

Future Trak at 12 AM

Future Trak at 12 AM

Lows will drop into the upper 30s to around 40° overnight. It will feel even colder with a northwest breeze at 10-20mph gusting up to 30mph at times. Since winds are blowing from the northwest, we could see Sound Side flooding along the Outer Banks early tomorrow morning. High tide is around 8:30 AM. Water levels could rise between 2-3 feet above normal along the Outer Banks. Over wash is also possible along Highway 12 from Buxton to the Oregon Inlet.

Clouds will clear out from west to east overnight. Expect a few clouds around in the morning, especially for coastal areas. Coastal clouds will quickly clear out, giving way to lots of sunshine on your Monday. Highs will be around 60°, but winds will still be breezy out of the north at 10-20mph. Computer models have the warm weather sticking around for a while. Could this be the end of the cold weather? I certainly hope so!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Tornado Watch Tonight, Plus Rainy and Cooler on Sunday

March 29th, 2014 at 9:01 pm by under Weather

First, let’s talk about the Tornado Watch that has been issued for Northampton County, Bertie County and Hertford County until 1 AM Sunday.

Tornado Watch

Tornado Watch In Effect Until 1 AM Sunday

This watch doesn’t include any counties in Virginia. The severe weather threat is very low for the rest of the area. I am tracking a cluster of severe storms near Raleigh that is moving northeast. These storms are feeding off of some instability across central North Carolina. The hi-res models show this cluster moving into Virginia closer to midnight, but I think it will be weaker by then. Stay tuned!

It has been a soggy Saturday across Hampton Roads, but at least it was warm outside. High temperatures were in the 60s and 70s. More rain is possible tomorrow, but it will be much cooler. Rain will be scattered on and off during the day tomorrow. We may see a few light showers early Sunday morning, but there are slightly better chances during the afternoon.

Future Trak at 12 PM

Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday

Here is Future Trak at 5 PM.

Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 5 PM Sunday

Best chances for rain tomorrow will be north of the metro, closer to the area of low pressure. Rain shouldn’t be as heavy or as widespread as earlier today. Once the cold front moves in tomorrow morning, temperatures will begin to fall. We will likely see our high temperature around 60° shortly after midnight. It will be mild in the morning and chilly in the afternoon with a strong westerly breeze blowing at 10-20mph.

Falling Temperatures Tomorrow

Falling Temperatures Tomorrow

Thankfully the cooler weather will be short-lived, as the warmer weather will return by early next week. I will have a full update on tonight’s severe weather threat coming up on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona