Ana is still surviving as a weak area of low pressure. It was still classified as a tropical depression this morning, but it is morphing into a broader extratropical low. However the system is surrounded by plenty of tropical moisture, and that has led to heavy downpours. Mostly over the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
The center was located near Rocky Mount, NC and was moving slowly to the east/northeast. This will move through Hampton Roads through the day. It will create on-and-off rain showers, and they will be heavy at times. Once we get some heating in here, say by the afternoon, then the thunderstorms will increase. The storms don’t look to be severe, but localized flooding will be possible. Here is what Future Trak shows for this afternoon:
Future Trak (3pm)
Notice the small patches of yellow, orange, and red. That indicates convection (rapidly rising air). There won’t be a lot of upper level wind support, but there will be some instability. Now we’ll already have some broad spin from the low itself. That could get focused to a small area where the thunderstorms form. Therefore, we could get a quick-lived (and isolated) tornado in the region as the storms roll through. The threat is low, but not zero. It would be similar in nature to a brief water spout if it forms at all. By the evening the low will start moving out. The rain chances will taper off. A lot of the area will see a half inch up to an inch of rain. However, 1-2″ is possible if you get caught under one of the downpours for a while.
Forecast Rain Totals
Luckily the wind won’t be much of an issue. The winds will be breezy along the shore with some gusts to 25mph down towards the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach. Overall, we are only looking at southeast winds at 10-15mph with a few higher gusts.
Wind Forecast (mph)
Tides won’t be an issue, but there are still some high waves along the shore.
The system will move out by tonight, but we are not out of the woods yet. We’ll be ahead of a cold front for most of the day Tuesday. With a southwest wind, the thermometers will start to sweat (not literally). High temps will rise to the upper 80s. We may even see a few 90s. It will still be fairly humid too. So the when the front comes through in the evening, then we could see some strong/severe thunderstorms.
Future Trak (5pm Tue.)
The main threat from tomorrow would be some strong gusty winds. It should move through pretty quickly, so there is less potential for flooding. Then it will be easy going. We’ll see some nice cooler/drier air Wednesday through Friday. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s and 60s. By next weekend we could see some more scattered showers, but we’ll see. There’s no big weather system, it’s still a ways out, and there will be some upper level ridging. So it’s in no way a done deal.
In national news.. The weather has been pretty wild in other locations. There has been snow over parts of the Rockies, tornadoes in the Plains states, and of course our local tropical system. Here’s a link with more info: Wild U.S. weather.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler