The leaves are changing across Virginia and North Carolina.  October is my favorite time of the year! 

In the mountains of VA and NC, there is 50-75% change in color.  The Piedmont has 25-50% color and so far there is less than 25% change in Hampton Roads and northeast NC.  Expect peak color within the next one to three weeks depending on location.

Please send your fall foliage pictures to us at weather@wavy.com.  We’d love to see them!

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

Yesterday we did hit 83 degrees at Norfolk International.  It was a nice day out for most of the area.  The showers came in during the evening between 7:30 and 10pm.  Here’s the estimated rainfall from Super Doppler 10:

We had a pretty good strip of rain start up over Newport News and North Suffolk.  It made it to Norfolk where the airport picked up 0.20″ of rain.  Then it dried out over Virginia Beach.  Look at Wanchese/Manteo.  A viewer emailed in that they got almost 2″ of rain down there yesterday around 5:00pm.  The storms didn’t materialize thankfully, but some areas got a quick downpour.  Today we started with temperatures in the upper 50s.  Highs though will only top out in the low/mid 60s.  The clouds should thin out this afternoon, but the winds will be northerly at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph near the shore.  Small craft advisories are up for the boaters on the ocean and the bay. 

  We’ll warm up by mid week with highs in the 70s.  We’ll probably see some 80s on Thursday with a cool down for Halloween. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Ok, I know warmy is not a real word…but it could be someday.  (Cheesy grin)

Today we will really warm up.  We hit 81 degrees yesterday at Norfolk International.  Today we’ll be in the low 80s again.  We will have a lot of cloud cover, but the sun will peak through.  We’ll feel strong southerly winds with gusts up to 30mph.  The Storm Prediction Center does have us under a slight risk for severe weather.  The clouds should limit instability somewhat, but the wind shear is pretty strong.  Remember wind shear is the strong increase in winds with height.  This limits hurricane formation, but it aids thunderstorm formation over land.  0-6km wind shear (low-mid level) will be about 50-60 knots.  40 is about the threshold for severe.  So we’ll be on the lookout later today.  The front won’t move through until later this evening though.  So the bulk of the storms are expected more towards the dinner hour and sunset.  The 6z raw NAM (model text) doesn’t spit out precipitation until overnight tonight, but our Future Trak computer model shows scattered showers and storms by this mid-afternoon.

Tomorrow we’ll drop the high temperature by about 20 degrees.  Look at the temperature trend.  The average high is 67 degrees (white horizontal line):

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Hello fellow earthlings!  Wow! Check out this sunset.  This was a beautiful shot from our tower cam in Portsmouth Thursday evening.  Great colors.  Today we got up to 77 degrees.  A few inland areas hit 80.  It was nice and warm.  The average high is 67 degrees.  We’ll stay mild through Saturday.  Saturday we will be warm with highs near 80.  We’ll also see some scattered showers and T’storms with another cold front moving in Saturday evening.  We’ll cool down and clear out on Sunday.  Should be nice with highs near 70.  Transmission out….

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

After feeling like Winter this weekend in Hampton Roads, we are topping off the cold airmass with a cherry on top.  A frost advisory has been issued for inland areas.  This includes Gates county, N.C.; Suffolk, Isle of Wight county, James City county, and all points westward.  A strong area of high pressure will dominate the weather tonight through Thursday.  Tonight the high will create clear skies and light winds.  Dewpoints are in the 20s in some inland areas.  This creates a big potential drop in temperatures.  Lows will be in the low 40s near the shore and in most of the metro.  Inland locations will be in the mid/upper 30s.  However, a few rural areas will be in the low/mid 30s.  Watch the usual cold spots.  Blackwater, south Chesapeake, Franklin, and Gloucester Courthouse.  Bring in the sensitive plants and pets.  You will not have to drip the faucets tonight.  A hard freeze is not expected. 

  Interestingly enough we will see temperatures climb over the next few days.  Highs on Thursday will be near 80 degrees.  You may say that this is crazy weather.  I say welcome to Hampton Roads.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

If you thought it was unusually chilly today, you’re exactly right!  A record low maximum of 50 degrees was set at Norfolk International Airport today.  The average high temperature for this time of the year is around 70 degrees.  Expect more of the same on Sunday: clouds, drizzle, a few showers, and highs in the 50s.  It will also be breezy with northerly winds between 10-25 mph.  Strong northerly winds combined with high astronomical tides will lead to minor to moderate tidal flooding during high tide on Sunday.  High tide will be between 8 AM and 10 AM.  Move your car if you live in a low-lying flood prone area.

Stay warm!

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

A large upper level low is sitting over us today.  There is also a surface low just offshore.  The mid level flow off of the ocean will collide with the cool airmass in place.  We’ll see cloudy/drizzly conditions continue through tonight.  The weather for the NAS airshow today will be cool, damp, drizzly, and breezy with scattered light showers.  If the ceilings are too low, then the pilots will not be able to fly.  I think if the deck is 1000ft or less, then the aircraft are grounded.  Especially during an airshow where safety is vital. 

Minor tidal flooding is likely this evening between about 7:30pm and 9:30pm.  The Eastern Shore may even see some moderate tidal flooding.  So there is a coastal flood warning for there.  Tides will be running about 1.5 to 2ft above normal.   Here’s a photo from a viewer from Chincoteague at around 9:30 this morning:

The photo was from Monnie Terry.  Thanks for sending!

Tomorrow the surface low will slowly drift away from the region.  The upper level low will still be here though.  I’m thinking that the clouds will stick around all day, but the showers should mostly be in the first half of the day.  A few scattered showers will probably linger into the afternoon, but I’m hoping that the cloud deck rises a little.  Also, I think the widespread drizzle will shut down tomorrow afternoon.  Winds today will be NNW at 10-20mph.  Tomorrow they will be NW at 15-20mph with higher gusts.  So I am calling for cooler highs (lower 50s) for Sunday. 

  We’ll improve on Monday.  Late day clearing and highs near 60.  Tuesday…Full sun and 67 degrees.  Nice. 

Meteorlogist: Jeremy Wheeler

The headline is for temperatures…NOT snow.  Sorry if that was a tease, but they did have snow up in Pennsylvania and upstate New York.  Locally, high temperatures over the next 3-4 days will be in the 50s.  These are typically our average high temperatures in the middle of Winter.  Very chilly!  I mentioned months ago that we would probably have an early Winter.   The cool/cold pool up in Canada only eroded for a month or two this Summer.  Usually it goes away for the entire Summer plus another month or two.  Well it’s in full force now.  Northern Canada already has some -20 degrees (C) at 850 mb.  This is pretty cold for this time of year.  I’ve occasionally mentioned that once in a while we used to trick-or-treat in the snow up in Illinois.  However, I don’t think I mentioned that in the late 80s we once played high school football in freezing fog.  It was in the Fall.  The fog on the field was actually freezing on our legs (at least the sideliners).  I was a runt on the team my freshmen year.  3rd string all the way.  I don’t miss the cold!

  Anyway, the cool air in Hampton Roads will remain for a few days.  Monday we should see some drying and then we’ll have sunshine return by Tuesday with highs back in the 60s.  As far as rain chances go… a doubled barrelled Nor’easter will form near the northeast coast.  (north of Hampton Roads).  We will not get the full brunt of the systems.  Instead we should see scattered light precipitation through the weekend with a brief period or two of moderate rain.  We could get some drying for one day, but it’s tough to lock down the timing of the features. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

After some patchy dense fog in spots this morning, skies will become mostly sunny today.  It’ll be warm too with highs in the lower to middle 70s.  Enjoy today because it will be the last nice day for a while.  Expect clouds, rain showers and windy conditions late Wednesday into Saturday morning.  A possible coastal storm will keep our weather quite unsettled through the rest of the work-week.  Temperatures will be drastically cooler with high temperatures only in the 50s. 

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

I’ve mentioned that I try to stay objective in the Global Warming camp.  Well, here is some interesting information about some recent cool weather.  Snow has fallen  in parts of Colorado and Wyoming.  It was enough snow to postpone the Phillies-Rockies game.  Temperatures fell to record lows.  It’s not completely unheard of for snow this time of year in the Rockies, but it is early. 

To add to the Global Warming confusion here is a recent article from the BBC about Global warming and the recent lack of it: BBC

Here’s another article from the New York Times about how Arctic sea ice grew thicker this Summer. Arctic

Amazing that we can have such a polarized view coming from the same data overall.  There is still a lot of questions about how the sun contributes to Earth’s natural warming.  Here is wikipedia’s section on sunspots: Sunspots  Notice that some of the warmest years in recent history (early 1930’s) had a relatively lower number of sunspots compared to the last 2 decades.  I wonder if there has been any study about the total area of sunspot size compared to Earth’s temperatures.  I.E. if you have 5 big sunspots versus 10 small ones.  There are lots of different views on this.  I just thought I’d highlight some recent news.  Especially with unnatural climate change becoming a major political topic lately. 

Locally we had temperatures in the 80s over the last 2 days.  Average highs are in the lower 70s this time of year.  A cold front dropped temperatures yesterday afternoon.  We’ll stay cool/mild today with highs near 70. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler