Weather

Event Weather This Weekend

May 15th, 2015 at 7:44 am by under Weather

There are a TON of outdoor events happening this weekend.  We will have some good weather for them, but it will be warm.  Today we started with some cool air and nice weather.  Temps bottomed out in the 40s and 50s early.  There were some clouds around, but these will thin out through the late morning and midday hours.  High pressure is in control, but some upper level moisture is causing the thin clouds to spread over our region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The high is scooting offshore today. This will allow for light southeast winds to form.  So high temps will warm up a bit compared to yesterday. They will rise to the low/mid 70s.  Tomorrow a warm front will lift through the area.  This will boost the high temps up to the mid 80s.  Plus the humidity will increase.  Some showers may return by Sunday night, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

As mentioned…there are a lot of events in the region this weekend.  We have good weather for all of the events.  Rather than label them all, here is a link with more information to most of the events: hrscene.com.

Whatever you are doing, have a great weekend!

One more thing.  They recently got some rain in southern California.  While it won’t break the drought, it is great news in the short term.  Here is a link to the story: California Rain.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Breath Of Fresh Air

May 14th, 2015 at 8:09 am by under Weather

Well, this will be brief.  After all, we have a quiet weather pattern for the next few days.  A large area of high pressure has taken over the eastern 1/3rd of the United States.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This is going to give us a lot of sunshine and a cool northeast breeze. High temps will be cool this afternoon. We’ll be running in the upper 60s to low 70s.  The humidity is very low.  Dew points are in the 40s today.  That is bone dry for this time of year.  The humidity and temperatures will increase into the weekend.

Humidity Forecast

Humidity Forecast

We’ll warm to the low/mid 70s tomorrow. We’ll be in the low/mid 80s this weekend. There will be some rain showers close to our region this weekend, but it looks like they’ll stay just west of us. Stay tuned to see if they try and get any closer.  Rain is likely to move in by Sunday night into Monday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


The 7-10 Storm Split

May 13th, 2015 at 8:19 am by under Weather

I’ve seen it in action.  Some call it the Hampton Roads bubble.  Today I called it the 7-10 split.  That is a bowling term in which the 7 pin and the 10 pin (yes, they are numbered) is left.  They are totally split on opposite ends of the lane after your first try.  The only way to get both is basically to bounce one pin into the other on your second try.  I’ve done it, but it is tough.  So in weather…. Check out the first frame on the satellite/Radar yesterday afternoon:

Developing Storm To Our West

Developing Storm To Our West

It looked like Hampton Roads was going to be in for a soaker as the storm near South Hill started to grow and move east.  Then… it split.  Take a look:

Splitting Storm

Splitting Storm

Not only did it split, but it weakened.  To add to the weirdness…the atmosphere was very unstable yesterday.  It was the type of instability that storm-chasers look for.  CAPE (Instability) was up to 3,000 J/KG.  The minimum for thunderstorms is about 500.  However, there was hardly any upper level wind support.  If there was, then it would have been severe weather city.  So we got lucky.  There were a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings over our western counties, but Hampton Roads fared well.  The “Marginal” risk for severe weather was a good call by the Storm Prediction Center.

Those storms were just ahead of a cold front.  Now that front is to our south.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High pressure is settling in nicely.  There were some clouds around this morning, but they will break up through the day.  The air is getting drier by the minute.  Dew points were near 70 yesterday.  They are dropping to the 40s today.

Dew Points

Dew Points

Winds will be out of the north/northwest today at 10-15mph.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 70s.  Tomorrow we’ll have a northeast breeze at 10-15mph.  So tomorrow will be even cooler.  In fact highs will be in the upper 60s.  The average high temperature for this time of year is 75 degrees.  We’ll see more 70s for Friday and Saturday with some low 80s on Sunday.  The weekend forecast has dried up since yesterday.  So I now have both Saturday and Sunday dry.  Looks good for any outdoor events.  And there are quite a few.

In national news…The worlds biggest hurricane simulator has just been built in Miami, Florida. “SUSTAIN” will help researchers better understand how waves impact structures.  Here’s the article: Worlds largest hurricane simulator.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

 


Waiting On The Cold Front

May 12th, 2015 at 6:37 pm by under Weather

We called for isolated severe storms and that is what we got. Although I have to admit, I thought we would have a little bit more action with all of the instability in place, but that was not the case. There were 2 storms that developed to our west and intensified as they moved into Southampton County, Sussex County and Northampton County (NC). Highs reached the 90s as expected and we were 3 degrees shy of breaking the record of 92° set back in 1881 at the Norfolk Airport.

High Temperatures Today

High Temperatures Today

The heat and humidity along with a wind shift line helped produce the storms across our westernmost counties. But these storms weakened as they pushed east, so expect some light rain showers across the Peninsula, Southside and North Carolina. Here is a look at the weakening storm heading northeast of Portsmouth out of Tower Cam 10.

Thunderstorm

Thunderstorm Out of Tower Cam 10

Are we done with the storms yet? I think most of us are, but the computer models are still hinting at some development across North Carolina, and maybe the Southside, between now and 10 PM. The only way areas north of the Peninsula would see any rain would be from an outflow boundary moving northward.

Future Trak at 9 PM Tonight

Future Trak at 9 PM Tonight

The cold front should move through the region closer to midnight, so any rain will come to an end before then. Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front and temperatures will drop into the mid 60s by tomorrow morning. Wednesday afternoon is looking perfect with highs in the mid 70s and low humidity!

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be watching the radar all night and will have updates on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Any additional watches or warnings will be scrolling at the bottom of your screen. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Cold Front On Approach!

May 12th, 2015 at 8:37 am by under Weather

Thank you Jen Lewis!  I couldn’t think of a good name for this weather blog this morning.  While she was doing traffic she said the words “…on approach”.  Voila!  There’s the title for the blog.  Thanks Jen.  So let’s talk about what’s happening out there.  Yesterday tropical depression Ana moved through the region.  It caused heavy rain at times.  Winds weren’t too bad for most, but they briefly gusted over 35mph down towards the Outer Banks.  The region had varying rainfall amounts.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

My weather watcher,Greg in Currituck NC, had 1″ of rain.  Pam in Gloucester had 1.5″.  Lee near Elizabeth City had about 1.3″ of rain.  Jan in Reedville had 0.3″.  I am surprised by the amount of rain in Norfolk.  Or lack of it…. The remnants of Ana moved out, but a few of her leftovers hung around.  A little windshift line (perhaps in the upper levels) created some scattered showers this morning.  They were actually very heavy with some thunderstorms, but they only lasted about 2 hours.

Storms This Morning

Storms This Morning

Now those storms have ended.  We’ll see quiet weather through midday.  Weak high pressure will build in, but briefly.  A cold front is setting up to our west (hence the blog title).

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll be ahead of the front most of the day.  Winds will be southwest at 10-20mph. This will allow the temperatures to spike to near 90 degrees.  The record in Norfolk is 92 set back in 1881.  That is a long-standing record.  It will be very hot and humid. However, the breeze will help offset (some) of the mugginess.  Dew points are in the upper 60s.

Dew Point temperatures

Dew Point temperatures

Unfortunately, storms don’t get cooled off by the breeze. They can use the heat and humidity as fuel.  So as we get into the late afternoon/early evening, those storms will be able to use the instability to get a little rowdy.  As of this writing, there is a marginal risk for severe weather.  That is the lowest tier (besides general thunderstorms) of the severe risk spectrum.  It basically calls for isolated severe weather.  The main threat will be strong gusty winds and possibly some hail.  Keep in mind that we may get upgraded later today (slight?).   The storms will roll through pretty quickly.  So I don’t anticipate flooding.  However, a brief heavy downpour is possible.  The chance for storms looks highest between 5pm and 8pm.

Future Trak (6:30pm)

Future Trak (6:30pm)

The storms should head out by 9-10pm.  Then it will be smooth sailing for several days.  Highs will be in the 70s Wednesday into the weekend.  We’ll be dry Wednesday through Saturday.  Rain looks to return by Sunday.  I can’t wait for the nice weather.  Time for yard work.  Oh and allergies aren’t too bad today.  They are moderate 5 out of 10.  They should be low-moderate from here on out.  Yeah!!!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Goodbye Ana, Hello Storms!

May 11th, 2015 at 6:18 pm by under Weather

Rain is finally tapering off across most of the region as the remnants of Ana push away from us. Ana did bring us some heavy rain and gusty winds along the Outer Banks. Here are rain totals over the past 24-hours. Keep in mind, that these totals are taken at specific locations. The heavy downpours were scattered around the region, so the heavy rain may have missed the airports shown below. So if you saw heavy rain, then you probably saw rain totals over 1 inch at your house. Notice that the highest totals were across the Outer Banks!

48-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

So we can say goodbye Ana! Next up…showers and storms developing across the western part of Virginia. These storms are moving southeast, so there is a chance they could hold together tonight. If the storms survive the journey to Hampton Roads, we could see another round of rain closer to 10 PM-12 AM. If the storms weaken before getting here, then we will stay dry, warm and muggy with temperatures hovering in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Future Trak at 10 PM Tonight

Future Trak at 10 PM

All of the rain should be gone by tomorrow morning and most of your Tuesday will be rain-free. Near record heat is likely tomorrow as high temperatures rise to around 90° with the help of our strong southwesterly winds. The record high at the Norfolk Airport is 92° set back in 1881. The humidity will be on the high side as we will still have plenty of moisture in place thanks to Ana. A cold front will move into Virginia Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and storms may develop out ahead of this front anytime after 3 PM. Best chance for rain will be across the Southside and North Carolina.

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Any storm that develops could turn strong to severe. The atmosphere should be quite unstable tomorrow afternoon with highs around 90° and lots of moisture in place. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon.

Marginal Risk For Severe Weather

Marginal Risk For Severe Weather

The marginal risk level is the lowest level for potential severe weather. That means there is only a slight chance for isolated severe storms. We are not expecting this to be a widespread event. Just stay tuned to our latest forecast and download the WAVY Weather app so you have access to the latest watches/warnings and radar on-the-go. The line of storms that develops should move fairly quickly across the region, so don’t expect the rain to last for too long tomorrow. Once the front moves through, winds will turn more northerly and usher in some much cooler and drier air. I’m really looking forward to Wednesday! Highs in the mid 70s with low humidity…sounds like perfection to me! :)

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be watching the radar tonight. He will have a full update on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Monday Afternoon Update

May 11th, 2015 at 1:18 pm by under Weather

This is just going to be a quick afternoon update on what to expect throughout the rest of the day. Check out Jeremy Wheeler’s morning blog for a more details. The remnants of Ana are right over top of us. Rain will continue on and off this afternoon. There may be some heavy downpours in some areas, but most folks should just see a steady light to moderate rain. The threat for any storms or tornadoes has gone down even more. We have plenty of tropical moisture in place, but we missing the instability (heat). The rain, thick cloud cover and fog have kept temperatures down into the 70s so far, so I don’t think many spots will be hitting 80 degrees. Highs will likely be in the mid 70s this afternoon.

Expect a few lingering showers around the evening commute, but the rain shouldn’t be as widespread as it is right now (lunchtime).

Future Trak at 3 PM

Future Trak at 3 PM Today

Winds have been running between 10-15mph for inland locations. Along the coast, winds are sustained between 10-20mph with gusts exceeding 30mph at times. Strongest winds have been reported along the Outer Banks in Manteo and Hatteras.

Manteo Past Wind Gusts

Manteo Past Wind Gusts

Wave heights have been running between 4-6 feet, but I don’t think anyone will be in the water today. Maybe a few surfers, but that is about it. There may be some overwash along Highway 12 in the Outer Banks.

I will have a complete updated forecast coming up on WAVY News 10 beginning at 4 PM.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Ana And The Heavy Rain

May 11th, 2015 at 8:28 am by under Weather

Ana is still surviving as a weak area of low pressure.  It was still classified as a tropical depression this morning, but it is morphing into a broader extratropical low.  However the system is surrounded by plenty of tropical moisture, and that has led to heavy downpours.  Mostly over the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The center was located near Rocky Mount, NC and was moving slowly to the east/northeast.  This will move through Hampton Roads through the day.  It will create on-and-off rain showers, and they will be heavy at times.  Once we get some heating in here, say by the afternoon, then the thunderstorms will increase. The storms don’t look to be severe, but localized flooding will be possible.  Here is what Future Trak shows for this afternoon:

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

Notice the small patches of yellow, orange, and red.  That indicates convection (rapidly rising air).  There won’t be a lot of upper level wind support, but there will be some instability.  Now we’ll already have some broad spin from the low itself.  That could get focused to a small area where the thunderstorms form.  Therefore, we could get a quick-lived (and isolated) tornado in the region as the storms roll through.  The threat is low, but not zero.  It would be similar in nature to a brief water spout if it forms at all.  By the evening the low will start moving out.  The rain chances will taper off.  A lot of the area will see a half inch up to an inch of rain.  However, 1-2″ is possible if you get caught under one of the downpours for a while.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

Luckily the wind won’t be much of an issue.  The winds will be breezy along the shore with some gusts to 25mph down towards the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach.  Overall, we are only looking at southeast winds at 10-15mph with a few higher gusts.

Wind Forecast (mph)

Wind Forecast (mph)

Tides won’t be an issue, but there are still some high waves along the shore.

The system will move out by tonight, but we are not out of the woods yet.  We’ll be ahead of a cold front for most of the day Tuesday.  With a southwest wind, the thermometers will start to sweat (not literally).  High temps will rise to the upper 80s.  We may even see a few 90s.  It will still be fairly humid too.  So the when the front comes through in the evening, then we could see some strong/severe thunderstorms.

Future Trak (5pm Tue.)

Future Trak (5pm Tue.)

The main threat from tomorrow would be some strong gusty winds.  It should move through pretty quickly, so there is less potential for flooding.  Then it will be easy going.  We’ll see some nice cooler/drier air Wednesday through Friday. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s and 60s.  By next weekend we could see some more scattered showers, but we’ll see.  There’s no big weather system,  it’s still a ways out, and there will be some upper level ridging.  So it’s in no way a done deal.

In national news.. The weather has been pretty wild in other locations.  There has been snow over parts of the Rockies, tornadoes in the Plains states, and of course our local tropical system.  Here’s a link with more info: Wild U.S. weather.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Remnants Of Ana To Bring Rain Overnight

May 11th, 2015 at 1:47 am by under Uncategorized, Weather

I’m writing this from home, so I don’t have access to the better graphics available at work. But I do feel that I should weigh in before this dying storm moves through. The remnant winds of Ana are around 30 mph…and are likely to continue to diminish through the night. 15 to 25 mph winds are possible through the region through tomorrow. Rain should begin to be a little more steady after midnight and continue off and on through early Monday.

Here’s a radar picture (NWS) from about 12:30 A.M.:

Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 12.57.46 AM

The center of the storm is located just to the northeast of Fayetteville, N.C. in this radar shot. I don’t want you to notice the center so much in this picture (hard to see, anyway!), but I do want you to note that the most concentrated area of rain is to the southeast of where the storm’s center is located. As the storm continues north-northeastward overnight and early Monday, that heavier area of rain is likely to continue northeastward through eastern North Carolina. Here’s another screen shot from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center:

Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 1.14.19 AMIt’s a small screen-shot, but it’s easy to see that the heaviest concentration of rain (purple) is over eastern North Carolina. There could be as much as 2″ to 4″ of rain there. In the Hampton Roads area, look for .50″ over the Peninsula…with .50″ to 1.5″ over the South Side cities. The heavier amounts for the South Side will fall over southern sections of Chesapeake and especially Virginia Beach.

One more picture here. I’ve taken the above radar picture and added a circle at the location of the storm’s center. Arrows very generally define the wind direction. Remember that this is a low pressure system…a veritable whirlpool of air spinning inward toward its center. Hopefully, this will give you some idea of wind flow as the storm passes overhead. Winds are likely to be in the 15 to 25 mph range…not likely to be dangerous from the remnants of Ana.

RADAR_HIGHLIGHTEDOne last thing. The storm had 65 mph winds for quite a while before it made landfall near Myrtle Beach. That means that some residual wave action is likely to be active for another day for especially the Outer Banks. Beach erosion (road damage?) and rip currents are extremely likely for the Outer Banks. Farther north, wave action is not likely to be as significant. However, rip currents are still quite likely for Virginia’s beaches.

That’s it! Ana has behaved pretty much as we expected…and will likely continue to diminish in intensity as it moves through into the day Monday.


Ana Weakens, Heavy Rain Still Possible

May 10th, 2015 at 8:11 pm by under Weather

Ana made landfall around 6 AM near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and has already weakened to a tropical depression. The 5 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center was the last advisory that will be issued on Ana. Ana will likely weaken even more overnight as the storm moves northeast. The remnants of Ana will impact Hampton Roads tomorrow. The forecast has the strongest winds at 30mph tomorrow over our region, but I think those winds are going to be too high. Coastal areas may see wind gusts up to 25mph, but 30mph may be too high.

Tropical Depression Ana

Tropical Depression Ana

Some of Ana’s outer bands moved across Virginia and North Carolina today. Rain was hit or miss and if you experienced a heavy downpour, it only lasted a few minutes. The shower activity is winding down now as we get closer to sunset, so we should see a break in the action until at least midnight. Then the rain will push back in from the south as the remnants of Ana move toward us. Expect scattered rain showers as you wake up tomorrow morning. Make sure you grab the umbrella before heading off to work!

Future Trak at 8 AM Monday

Future Trak at 8 AM Monday

Rain will continue right into the afternoon as what is left of Ana moves across North Carolina and Virginia.

Future Trak  at 12 PM Monday

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Isolated storms may develop during the afternoon as high temperatures rise to around 80°. We will have plenty of tropical moisture in place, so the main threat tomorrow will be the potential for heavy rain. Heavy downpours will cause ponding on the roads and that could lead to localized street flooding. Rain will taper off Monday evening as we lose the heating of the day and the remnants of Ana push offshore.

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Any heavy rain that falls will add up quickly in the rain gauges. 0.5-1 inch of rain is expected across the region over the next 24 hours. Some isolated areas may see higher totals.

The remnants of Ana will also bring increasing wave heights and dangerous rip currents to the area beaches. Wave heights should range from 2-3+ feet for Virginia Beach and 3-5 feet along the OBX. Winds are not going to be that bad. We could see gusts up to 25mph, but that would only be right along the coast. Gusty winds will also be possible within any storm that develops. Small craft advisories have been issued for the bay and the ocean until Tuesday morning. Use caution boaters! Overall….this storm is going to have minimal impacts across our region. Here is the breakdown.

Monday Impacts

Monday Impacts

A cold front will keep rain chances alive Tuesday afternoon. Near record heat is possible Tuesday with highs around 90°! Then we cool back down and dry out by Wednesday.

Download the WAVY Weather app so you can have access to Super Doppler 10 radar on-the-go! The app is free of charge.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona