Weather

Afternoon Showers & Then Cooler

September 13th, 2014 at 9:19 am by under Weather

We had about 1 hour of sunshine this morning before the clouds rolled in. We could see a few more peaks of sunshine before midday, but this afternoon I would count on clouds and rainfall possible.

Afternoon Showers and Thunder Likely

Afternoon Showers and Thunder Likely

Today we will see highs near 80 degrees. For college football fans wanting to support your team tonight, I would bet on rain during parts of the game.

Bring the Poncho

Bring the Poncho

Tomorrow, after the passage of the cold front, we will see temperatures in the lower 70s! That will be one of the coolest dry days we have had in awhile. It will feel like fall with a crisp breeze from the north at 10-15mph. Sunday we should be dry with partly cloudy skies.

Highs will remain in the 70s on Monday with mostly cloudy skies. More rain will come again on Tuesday.

Tropical  & Surf Update:

Tropical Storm Edouard remains as a strong Tropical Storm in the Central Atlantic. The latest update had this storm with 50mph winds.

Swell Coming Wednesday

Swell Coming Wednesday

This storm will stay offshore of the USA. Surfers; we will see a nice swell from this storm coming in Wednesday-Friday next week. This storm is likely going to make the same track that Hurricane Leslie did in 2012. If you remember that storm gave us 3-4ft waves at its peak. The only thing I am concerned about is a northeast wind developing locally which would prevent clean surf. Stay tuned for more updates.

Have a great weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Stalling Front And Edouard

September 12th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

A cold front is struggling to move south this morning. So far (as of this writing) it has only made it to the Peninsula.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were moving from the Middle Peninsula over to the Eastern Shore.  Some of these were real downpours.

Super Doppler 10

Super Doppler 10

There was also an isolated downpour between Wanchese and Rodanthe N.C.  Some of these showers will slowly sink south along with the cold front through the afternoon.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Temperatures in the Midwest (north of the front) are in the 30s, 40s, and 50s.  Around here today temperatures will stay in the 70s with just a few 80s south.  Winds are turning out of the north this morning, and they will run at about 10-15mph.   By this evening the front will settle into northeast North Carolina.  This will decrease the rain chances for Friday night football games.  It will be cool and cloudy with just a sprinkle or two.  Tomorrow the front will stay over northeast North Carolina.  A few showers may try to push north of the front.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80.  Some rain will move back north as we get later in the day.  This will be aided by a weak mid-level disturbance.  So by the late afternoon/early evening we’ll see some scattered showers in the region.  This could impact some of the local college football games.  The rain chances will increase by tomorrow evening.  According to the models, rain is mostly likely Saturday night into early Sunday.  A few showers are then again possible for the rest of Sunday.  It doesn’t look like much right now, but stay tuned for updates.  Especially with that tricky front.  Let’s see that makes it stalled-out front # 59 of the year I think. (I have no idea if we’ve really had 59 stalled out fronts.  It was just for effect).  It will be cooler on Sunday as the front pushes south once again.

Monday looks to dry out, but then some more scattered showers are expected on Tuesday.

In the Atlantic we have two areas that I am tracking.  The first one is a namedl system. That is tropical storm Edouard.  It is in the eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west/northwest.

Track Of Edouard

Track Of Edouard

The storm will move northwest for a while as a tropical storm.  By Tuesday it is likely to become a hurricane.  It should begin to move north at that point.  It will stay out to sea, and is likely to stay east of Bermuda.  It may bring us some waves by late next week, but we’ll see.  There is also a weak disturbance near Florida.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

That feature is drifting west.  It may survive moving over Florida with some heavy rain.  If it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, then it could develop into a tropical system.  It’s not likely to affect us, but could become a problem for the Gulf Coast. Stay tuned!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Some Temporary Heat

September 11th, 2014 at 8:21 am by under Weather

The day started off on a good note.  We had a gorgeous morning with a little deck of clouds moving through, and the sun peaking out in between.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Conditions looked right for some fog to form, but the clouds swooped in and stopped that from happening.  The clouds act like a blanket and can stop the temperatures from dropping to the dew p0int.  Luckily the clouds are temporary, and we’ll see lots of sunshine today.  However, that same sunshine will help to heat things up this afternoon.  Highs will rise to near 90.  The average high is 81 degrees for this time of year.  Winds will be southwest around the high that sits to our southeast.

 

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

The humidity will be high as well, but the breeze should help.  By tonight a strong cold front will move into the region.  It will form a line of showers and storms that will swipe through between 9pm and 2am (more specific time will depend on location).  We may see a few strong storms with some heavy rain and gusty winds.  However, this system will be on the move.  So it won’t be like the last system.  We are looking at a quarter to a half an inch of rain.  Perhaps a little more in a few storms.

Tomorrow we are looking at cooler weather.  Highs will be in the upper 70s.  A few showers may linger during the morning, but it doesn’t look like there will be much in the afternoon (isolated shower).  Winds will turn out of the north.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The weekend forecast has become very muddy.  Not all in terms of rainfall, but in clarity.  How about that for a pun?  Ahem…Anyway, the cold front is now expected to stall out just south of the region.  Some models (like the NAM and European) bring rain into the region each day.  The GFS model keeps the front a little farther south, and doesn’t have as much rain.  So until the models come into better agreement, I’ve just put in a chance for some scattered showers each day.  Hopefully, the models will close in on a more definite solution by later today. I will have an update tomorrow on that.

Finally there is a cluster of storms over in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that is likely to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next few days.  It is moving west, but it is far away.  The satellite is fairly impressive, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes an organized system later today.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Steady Weather Improvement And Golf & Climate

September 10th, 2014 at 8:36 am by under Weather

The weather has been steadily improving in the region, but it isn’t too rosy just yet.  When I came into work I ran into a bunch of drizzle and light showers.  This continued on until about 7am.  The area of low pressure that caused the bad weather has moved offshore, but a moist marine layer has been pushing in from the northeast.  As the low continues to push away, high pressure will build in from the northwest.

Today's Forecast Map

Today’s Forecast Map

We’ll dry things out and get more sunshine as we go into the midday and the afternoon.  Highs will be in the low 80s with a few upper 70s near the shore.  The wind is out of the north/northeast.  It won’t be as strong as the past 24 hours.  It was pretty breezy yesterday afternoon as the low began to depart.  With the recent winds and full moon there has been some minor tidal flooding.  This was on top of (or really underneath) the flooding from the recent rain.  The tide at Sewell’s Point made it up to 4.6′/4.7′ over the last 2 tide cycles.  This morning the tide will rise to about 4.4′.  That is just below the threshold for minor tidal flooding.  So it is more in the nuisance category.  After that the tide will drop further.

Tide Forecast (Sewell's Pt.)

Tide Forecast (Sewell’s Pt.)

By tomorrow high pressure will shift to the southeast.  This will allow for more southerly winds.  It will stay close enough to provide for some nice weather.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The southerly winds will boost the temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s.  A cold front will then move into the region by tomorrow night.  This will create a return of some scattered showers and storms.  Unlike the last system, this next one will move through the region.  So no flooding is expected.  However, it is forecast to stall out to our south.  So showers will linger on Saturday.  At least we’ll be cool again.  Highs in the 70s Friday through Sunday.

I found this article about how the U.S. Golf Association has been trying to find a more efficient lawn.  One that can especially handle a warmer climate.  Here is the article: Golf courses and climate. There is a lot of input into golf courses across the country.  So any increase in efficiency/heat tolerance will have a big impact.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tidal Flooding Still Possible Tonight

September 9th, 2014 at 6:15 pm by under Weather

The rain has finally ended for the most part across Hampton Roads, other than a few spotty light showers. There are still a lot of dark clouds on Tower Cam 10, but thankfully no rain!

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Thank you to everyone for sending in your rain totals by email, Facebook or Twitter. These totals help give us ground truth. The National Weather Service in Wakefield created the graphic below with the help of your rain totals to show where the heaviest rain fell. There is a legend at the bottom of the graphic explaining what each color means. The heaviest rain fell over parts of Isle of Wight County, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Newport News, Hampton and Virginia Beach. The highest total I have seen was in Smithfield where the report was over 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period. WOW!

Rain Totals

Even though the rain has ended, we could still see tidal flooding tonight during high tide at 10:15. Tides have been running higher than normal because of our persistent northeasterly and easterly wind and because of the full moon last night. Water levels at Sewells Point peaked at 4.7 feet earlier this morning. The threshold for minor tidal flooding is at 4.5 feet. Minor tidal flooding will be possible again tonight because water levels are forecast to be right around that threshold. Keep that in mind if you live in a flood prone area. Move your car to higher ground.

Sewells Point Water Levels

Sewells Point Forecast Water Levels

Nuisance tidal flooding is still possible Wednesday and Thursday during high tide as water levels stay elevated, but below the threshold for minor tidal flooding.

Wednesday is looking much drier. We should start off with the clouds in the morning, but then transition to a mix of sun and clouds during the afternoon. A stray coastal shower is possible, but chances are very low.

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have another update on the tides coming up on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Flooding Continues

September 9th, 2014 at 8:34 am by under Weather

Wow! Some of the heaviest rain that I’ve seen in years has recently fallen in the region.  It has been pretty wild.  This is one example of the flooding that was out there:

Portsmouth Flooding

Portsmouth Flooding

This photo was sent in from Sam Butler in Portsmouth.  We had a lot of flooding from yesterday.  There was really bad flooding in many parts of Portsmouth.  A group of kids had to be boated out of a daycare in the Churchland area.  That really hits home because my own kids used to go there.  There were a couple of other cities that saw similar flooding.  Last night the rain did not stop, but it did let up.  However, it re-intensified this morning.
This was the radar earlier this morning.

Heavy Rain This Morning

Heavy Rain This Morning

Note the heavy downpours over Newport News, Smithfield, and Norfolk.  It was heavy in Portsmouth, but then that moved east.  Some of the areas that had flooding yesterday probably didn’t go down much.  So the rain all added up.  Up to the time of this writing many cities saw 4-6 inches.  Chesapeake had over 7 inches.  That is within 24 hours and in some cases most of it fell in 3 hours.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

I saw 2 reports of over 10″.  One was a National Weather Service employee near Smithfield.  He/She had 12.21″.  The other report was a viewer in Virginia Beach.  Hard to believe some of these totals.

On top of the rain that is falling, the tide is also expected to rise.  Now the tidal flooding should only be about a foot to a foot and a half above normal.  That’s not bad, and is considered nuisance tidal flooding.  However, with the tide coming up that will stop the drains from being effective.  So we could see some more street flooding over some cities that are prone to tidal flooding.  Especially Norfolk, Portsmouth, and parts of the Peninsula.  The main cause for the rain is a weak area of low pressure that is tracking northeast along a stationary front.

Weak Low Along A Front

Weak Low Along A Front

Deep moisture wrapped around this low as it came up from the south.  The low is slowly edging out to sea.  As it pushes away the rain will become more scattered.  This is what Future Trak shows for this afternoon at 3pm.

Future Trak 3pm

Future Trak 3pm

The rain will keep decreasing through tonight.  Tomorrow the low will keep edging away offshore.  However, some models have it throwing some spotty showers back to the west.  So we could see some spotty/light showers.  Overall though we’ll dry out Wednesday and Thursday.  Highs will be in the 80s.  Then a cold front will move through the region on Friday.  This will produce some more scattered showers and storms.  Although it shouldn’t be nearly as heavy as the last 24 hours.  Stay tuned for updates, and drive safe today.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Flooding Across Hampton Roads

September 8th, 2014 at 7:22 pm by under Weather

It has been a busy afternoon with all of the reports of flooding coming in across the Hampton Roads cities. The heavy rain hit at the worst time, from 1-6 PM, because it impacted the commute home from work and school. Check out the WAVY slideshow of all of the photos of flooding sent into our newsroom. Here are the rain totals so far as of 7 PM. These totals will continue to rise even more tonight.

Rain Totals Forecast

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

Keep in mind that the heaviest rain may not always fall where there is a rain gauge. In fact, a National Weather Service employee, reported over 10 inches of rain near the MMBT. That was the highest total of the day! Many of you reported between 4-6 inches of rain in Norfolk, Portsmouth, Virginia Beach, northern Suffolk, northern Chesapeake, Hampton, Newport News and Isle of Wight County. Other areas saw much less rain. Rain will continue tonight and heavy rain is still possible. We are concerned about the additional rain tonight because it will be falling during high tide which is at 9:25 PM at Sewells Point.

Future Trak at 9 PM

Future Trak at 9 PM Tonight

Tides will be running higher than normal tonight due to the northeasterly winds and the full moon. With the water levels approaching the minor flooding threshold and the rain still coming down, we could see additional street flooding near coastal areas. Here is the forecast for Sewells Point, which is a good benchmark for the Southside and the Peninsula.

Forecast Water Levels

Forecast Water Levels

Water levels will peak tonight and then come down, but stay elevated Tuesday and Wednesday. Nuisance tidal flooding will be possible during periods of high tide Tuesday and Wednesday. We are tracking an area of low pressure that will move north through North Carolina and Virginia tomorrow. Rain is likely in the morning, so prepare for another messy morning commute.

Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday

Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday

Rain will become more scattered in the afternoon as the low pushes away from us. Then we are looking at a drier day on Wednesday. Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have another update coming up on WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Afternoon Update: Heavy Rain Continues

September 8th, 2014 at 2:14 pm by under Weather

Here is just a quick afternoon update to Jeremy’s previous blog. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for all of the counties highlighted in green until Tuesday morning.

Flood Watch

Flood Watch Until Tuesday Morning

Many areas have already picked up between 2-3 inches of rain. Some reports are coming in of 4-5 inches already and we are not done yet. We are getting many reports of street flooding. Here is a photo taken at the Virginia Beach Oceanfront by Paula. If you have any photos of flooding, please send them to reportit@wavy.com.

Virginia Beach Street Flooding

Virginia Beach Street Flooding

Very heavy rain has been falling across Newport News, Hampton, Portsmouth and Norfolk over the past 2 hours. This heavy rain is slowly pushing east toward Virginia Beach. Expect the evening commute to be a messy one. Leave yourself extra time to get where you need to go tonight. Heavy rain will reduce visibilities and cause ponding on the roads. Make sure you don’t drive through a flooded road. Turn around!

Future Trak at 5 PM

Future Trak at 5 PM

Full update is coming up on WAVY News 10 at 4 PM.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Heavy Rain Moving Into The Region

September 8th, 2014 at 9:04 am by under Weather

The sentiment from many of my weather watchers recently is that we all need some rain in the region with only a few exceptions.  Some of them haven’t needed any for the entire Summer as they have had ample, I.E. Greg in Currituck.  Just over the past 2 weeks he has changed his tune.  Well, now the rain is moving in.   Last night there wasn’t much out there, but it really picked up between 5 and 8 am.  This caused many problems with traffic during the morning commute.  Here was the view from Super Doppler 10 this morning:

Super Doppler 10

Super Doppler 10

Over the weekend a cold front moved through the region. This caused a few scattered showers, but it also push the heat to our south.  At least on Sunday.  Now the front is sitting to our south.  A weak area of low pressure is forming and pushing north into the front.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is some deep/rich moisture south of this boundary.  It is all slowly going to push north through the day.  So we have a high chance for rain.  This is NOT like rain events during the past couple of months.  No chance for a few pop up showers and storms.  No hit-or-miss showers and storms.  No!  This is the real deal.  Widespread rain for everybody, and a few areas of heavy rain to boot.  Here is what Future Trak looks like at 3pm this afternoon:

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

There will be ponding on the roads and probably some street flooding as well.  Due to the clouds and rain, the temperatures will stay in the 70s today.  The rain will continue into tonight, but it should break up a little bit.  Then the rain will continue into tomorrow.  At least the models are backing off the rain a little bit for Tuesday.  So as the low slowly pushes away, then we’ll see scattered showers on the back side.  Today the rain chances are 80–90%.  Tomorrow it should be more in the way of 50-60%.  It will taper off to just a few showers late in the day.  Highs will again be in the 70s.  We’ll dry out on Wednesday and Thursday.  Highs will be in the 80s.

For rain totals we are looking at a solid 2-4″ of rain.  There may even be a few spots of 5″ or more.  That will likely lead to some localized flooding.

Rainfall Totals Forecast

Rainfall Totals Forecast

Stay tuned for updates to this.

If we don’t get flooding from the rain, then we may see some from the wind.  Winds will be persistent from the northeast over the next couple of days.  It will generally run at 5-15mph with higher gusts near the shore.  This and the full moon will lead to some nuisance-type tidal flooding.  It will come up about 1-1.5ft above normal.  So no big problems are expected, but it will rise in those typical areas that see the higher tide-waters.

Next weekend we’ll see some more changes.  There will be scattered showers and storms along a big cold front on Friday.  That front will cool us down next weekend.  We’ll see high in the low/mid 70s on Saturday and Sunday.  Lows will probably drop to the 50s and low 60s.  It will feel great for the Fall-lovers.  That same cold air may bring some snow to a few cities in the northern part of the Midwest.  Way too early to drop down here though.

Before I go.  There is one disturbance over in the eastern Atlantic that may develop into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days.  It is coming out of the Cape Verde area, and is moving west.  Stay tuned for updates, but it is way out there at this time.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Rainy, Cloudy Start To The Week

September 7th, 2014 at 9:03 pm by under Weather

It was a cloudy, dreary day with some on and off rain, mostly in the morning for Virginia. Heavy rain fell across the Eastern Shore last night and early this morning. Melfa picked up 1.38 inches and Wallops Island picked up 1.79 inches just over a period of several hours. We were significantly cooler than yesterday with highs in the upper 70s to around 80°. Another round of storms fired up along the Outer Banks this afternoon as the cold front was moving southward. These storms produced heavy rain and dumped a good 1.7 inches of rain in Manteo. One of the storms even produced a waterspout over the Pamlico Sound. This photo was taken by Gerry in Waves, just south of Rodanthe.

Waterspout

Waterspout near Waves, NC

Showers are possible across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks tonight. The rain will slowly push northward overnight. Rain should become more widespread by 7:00 AM Monday. Our latest hi-resolution computer model shows a wet morning commute for most folks. Make sure the kids pack their rain jacket/umbrella for school in the morning.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Future Trak at 7 AM Monday

The red and yellow colors show pockets of heavy rain. Showers will be slow moving and we will have plenty of moisture to work with, so heavy rain will be the main threat. Heavy rain could lead to some localized street flooding. There may be a few breaks in the rain here and there, but I wouldn’t count on a lot.

Future Trak at 5 PM

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

The evening commute could be even worse, especially if some roads/low lying areas are flooded. An area of low pressure will ride along that stationary front located in North Carolina keeping the chance for rain in the forecast on Tuesday. Rain should be more scattered on Tuesday because the low will be pushing away from us. Forecast rain totals should range from 2-3 inches on average with a few higher totals possible, mainly in areas that see heavy rain for a long period of time. Behind the front, winds are blowing out of the northeast. With strong northeasterly winds and a full moon coming up tomorrow night, tides will be running higher than normal. Nuisance tidal flooding will be possible Monday through Wednesday during times of high tide. See graphic below for times and forecast water levels.

Sewells Point Tides

Sewells Point Tides

Water levels should stay below the threshold for minor tidal flooding for now, but things could still change. Water levels will be the highest Wednesday morning and then should come down on Thursday. We dry out Wednesday and Thursday before another round of storms arrives late Thursday night into Friday. At least the cooler weather has returned! Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80°  Monday through Wednesday. Have a great week! Don’t forget the umbrella!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona