Get ready for 2 rounds of rain and then much colder weather! First round is tonight and the second round will arrive tomorrow. The rain has already pushed into Hampton Roads tonight thanks to a weak area of low pressure offshore.
This low will move northeast tonight, so the rain will increase in coverage. Showers should gradually taper off after midnight.
The cold front located across Alabama and Louisiana is the same cold front that will move into Virginia and North Carolina tomorrow evening. So we are seeing the first round of rain tonight. Then round two moves in Monday afternoon.
Monday morning is going to start off cloudy and chilly with temperatures hovering in the mid to upper 40s. It will not be nearly as cold as this weekend when temperatures were in the 20s and 30s during the early morning hours.
Future Trak at 7 AM Monday
The morning commute should be just fine, but the evening commute could be messy. A line of showers and isolated storms should develop out ahead of the cold front at 3 PM. Southwesterly winds running between 15-25mph will boost high temperatures in the lower 70s. That is about 20 degrees warmer than today! Humidity levels will be higher too.
Future Trak at 3 PM
The line of rain will continue to move east, so the rain will be hit or miss during your evening commute. Best chances for rain tomorrow will be between 3-8 PM.
Future Trak at 6 PM
Cold front will move into the metro area anytime between 7-10 PM. Once the cold front moves in, colder and drier air will move into the region. All rain should come to an end before midnight. Temperatures will drop into the 30s by Tuesday morning and highs Tuesday afternoon will only be in the upper 30s! That is after seeing highs in the lower 70s on Monday. So high temperatures will drop 30° or more over a 24-hour period. Wow!
And then it gets colder! Near record cold is expected Wednesday morning as lows drop into the lower 20s with teens possible inland. The record low for Norfolk Airport Wednesday morning is 25° set back in 1959. The cold weather sticks around on Wednesday as highs only rise to around 40°.
*This upcoming cold blast is going to be stronger than the one we saw this weekend. Make sure your are prepared!
Bring pets inside
Dress in layers and cover exposed skin (gloves, hats, scarves)
We had temperatures drop to 19 degrees this morning across our area. Both the towns of Zuni and Franklin had a cold morning. The previous unofficial record for Franklin was 26 degrees set in 1950. (Official records are only kept for Norfolk, Elizabeth City, and Wallops Island) Other areas had lows in the 20s.
A Cold Morning
As we go through the day, we should see sunny skies and temperatures making their climb to the mid-40s this afternoon. High pressure will stay in control today. Tomorrow it will begin to fade as a new storm system develops off of our coast into Monday.
Rain On Monday
With both of those areas of low pressure across the USA, that will allow from a strong northwest wind to redevelop. That will pull in another blast of colder temperatures arriving on Tuesday and Wednesday. For both days, highs will be near 42 degrees with lows in the mid-20s.
Yesterday, I mentioned that if the moisture could linger a little longer this morning, then we could see some sleet or snow mixing in with the rain showers. Well…it happened. This morning we have numerous reports of sleet mixing in with the light rain showers.
Radar This Morning
Luckily the surface and ground temperatures were well above freezing. So anything frozen that fell had melted. We were in the upper 30s to low 40s with a few mid 30s north of the metro. Remember while it’s above freezing near the surface, it’s below freezing a couple thousand feet up in the atmosphere. So that’s how sleet was able to form. Through the day we’ll have clearing skies. However, we’ll see strong winds from the north at 10-20mph and gusts up to 25mph. So despite the clearing we’ll only top out in the mid 40s for highs today. The average high is 62 degrees. Wow! Basically the cold front that stalled out offshore is finally making a push east again. High pressure is building east. So the cold air is resuming its eastward march.
Tonight the winds will letup and skies will clear out. It’s a recipe for freezing conditions in the region. In fact we’ll see freezing conditions even to near the coast tonight. There are freeze warnings for some cities. I won’t give them as they’ll update through the day, but you can find them here: National Weather Service warnings/advisories.
The lows tonight will be in the 20s inland with low 30s even near the shore. Probably a few 40s right along the shore, but that’s within a half mile.
Forecast Low Temps
Tomorrow we’ll see a fair amount of sunshine as high pressure settles into the coastal states. but with the north winds at 8-12mph, temps will still only be in the mid 40s. We’ll warm it up on Sunday into the low/mid 50s. We’ll see some clouds building into the region. Then Sunday night into Monday we’ll have widespread rain showers. At least the highs will rise up to near 60. This will be ahead of the next cold front. Behind that front high temps will once again be in the 40s for Tuesday into Wednesday. This could be a very long Winter….
I’d say that the cooler air has already moved into the region, but the cold air is still on the way. Yesterday was nice and warm. The whole region topped out in the low/mid 70s. It was a bit cooler along the coast. Clouds rolled in last night, and that actually stopped the temperatures from falling too much. So lows were in the 50s over most of the metro with 40s inland and north. At least we didn’t have any fog to track this morning. So that was a nice change.
Today the cold front that moved into the region is stalling out to our south. A weak area of low pressure is forming and is moving north along the front.
Stalled Out Front
This is stopping the really cold air from surging in already. The cold surge is briefly paused, but it’s not far away. Look at the forecast (model) high temps for today:
Forecast High Temps
I wanted to point out that these are model-based because we are likely to get more into the mid 50s since we stared near 50. As we go through the day we’ll develop some scattered showers. We might see a few sprinkles this morning, but we’ll see scattered rain showers this afternoon and evening. Here is Future Trak 3 pm:
Future Trak (3pm)
The rain looks to increase by the evening commute. In fact…we might see some spots of heavy rain between 4 and 7 pm.
Future Trak (5pm)
The rain will taper off by 9pm. Overnight the colder air will start to surge into the region. The showers may come back for a bit as a 2nd cold surge moves into the region. The showers should wrap up by 2-3am. However, if the moisture lingers a bit longer, then some sleet pellets or a few wet snowflakes could mix-in. Surface air temperatures would be above freezing and ground temps are well above freezing. So no problems are expected. The higher chance for any mix would be towards the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and/or Accomack county on the Eastern Shore. Low temps will drop to the 30s across the region tonight.
Tomorrow will be colder. As the low pushes away and pulls the cold front with it, winds will pick up. Today they are northerly at 10-15mph. Tomorrow they will be out of the north at 10-20mph with a few higher gusts near the shore. Highs will only be in the mid 40s, and the wind will make it feel even colder. On Sunday we’ll see a lot of clouds, but the models have slowed the rain moving in. So mostly cloudy skies for Sunday with highs in the low 50s. Rain will move in by Sunday night and will last for most of Monday. The good thing about Monday is the temperature. Highs will rise to near 60s or even in the low 60s. We’ll be chilly again though Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
This morning I was tracking two things. First, there was some pretty thick fog in the area. It did make for some cool camera shots. This was one from our tower cam at Windward Towers in Newport News.
Fog On Tower Cam
This was an image of the James River Bridge. You can barely make out the top of one of the cranes near the bridge. Then the fog burned off, and the sun started to pop out. It was a warm/humid morning with temps in the 60s. The strong cold front was still to our west. The weak low that brought us rain yesterday was heading farther out to sea.
Cold Front To The West
During the day we’ll see more and more sunshine. As brief high pressure moves in. This will let temps warm up to near 70 degrees. Then the front will move through this evening and will start to drop the temperatures. No rain is expected with the front. We’ll be mostly clear tonight and chilly. We’ll start in the 40s Thursday morning, but will only rise to the low 50s during the afternoon. A weak upper level disturbance and a weak low offshore low will help to create some scattered showers by Thursday afternoon. Here is what Future Trak shows for 3pm tomorrow.
Future Trak 3pm Thu.
The showers will continue into the evening, but should push out by Friday. The models have backed off of the snowflakes at the end of the precipitation. I still won’t rule it out, but I still think it would only be a few melting flakes on the tail-end early Friday morning if any fall at all. We’ll dry out through Friday. Highs will only be in the mid 40s. We’ll see lows in the 20s/30s Saturday morning. Then highs will be in the mid 40s with partly cloudy skies. We’ll rise to the 50s by Sunday, but some rain showers will move back into the picture.
Yep! That’s the short answer to the rhetorical question posed in the title to this blog. The longer answer is more interesting. They are definitely seeing an early Winter in the northern States today. Some areas could see more than 10 inches of snow. Maybe even over 15″. It’s way too early for that type of snow. Even in the Midwest. Here is the snow this morning on the satellite/radar:
Blue = Snow, Green/Yellow = Rain
Meanwhile a weak area of low pressure is sitting to our southeast. It will continue to throw some moisture/showers in our direction through the day. So if you have some outdoor events to attend for Veterans Day, then be sure to take the umbrella. With the low to our southeast, the highest chances for rain will be closer to the low. So here is my rain chance map for today:
Rain Chances Today
The showers will come in waves or pockets of light rain. Here is what Future Trak shows for 3pm:
Future Trak (3pm)
We’re not looking at much for amounts. Maybe a tenth of an inch or two. We’ll dry out tonight as the low moves northeast (staying well offshore).
As far as temps go…Get ready for some big changes. Let’s look at this forecast high temperature map.
Forecast High Temps
Today we’ll see highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Meanwhile they’ll only see highs in the 20s in Minneapolis and teens in the Dakotas. Youch! That cold air will keep sliding southeast over the next 48 hours. So today and tomorrow we’ll see highs near 70. Then highs will be in the low 50s on Thursday. The first cold front will move through early on Thursday, but we are not expecting rain with that. A second front looks to move through on Friday. So that’s when we’ll see a few rain showers and the bigger temperature drop. Highs will only be in the mid 40s on Friday. We’ll see a few showers in the morning. It could possibly end as some wet melting snowflakes, but the models aren’t very aggressive with this this morning. No matter what falls it would melt anyway. Still…it’s interesting to even have a chance for Wintry weather in early November. I think this is a sign that we’ll be dealing with snow in December. It would probably be an offshore low throwing moisture at us after one of these cold bursts come through. Or we’ll get some lingering moisture on the back side of one of these fronts. Either way I’d head out and buy those snow shovels while the prices aren’t too high. Way too early for bread and milk though.
The remnants of Nuri, which was a record breaking storm, will be responsible for an arctic blast across the U.S. this week. Thanks to Nuri, a strong ridge will develop across the West Coast and a large trough will develop across the rest of the country. This will open the door for cold Arctic air to move into the U.S.
Jet Stream Position
Here is a look at the weather pattern early this week. A strong ridge develops across California and the rest of the West Coast, while the jet stream takes a large dip across the rest of the country. This dip in the jet stream will allow cold arctic air to filter in behind the cold front. Notice that Virginia and North Carolina are going to stay warm through Wednesday.
Weather Pattern Early This Week
By the end of the week, the weather pattern will look more like this.
Weather Pattern Late This Week
The coldest weather will be across the Northern Tier of the country and the Midwest where temperatures will drop below zero degrees in the morning and not make it out of the teens and 20s by the afternoon. Our temperatures will drop a good 20 degrees, but the air will moderate by the time it reaches us. So, our cool down will not be as extreme as some of our northern states. But it will still be the coldest air we have seen so far this season.
As high drop into the 40s, lows will be dropping to around 32 degrees Saturday and Sunday mornings. If you have any yard work to do, make sure you plan time over the next few days before it gets much colder. Have a good week!
As the title suggests, the remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri is now one of the strongest non-tropical storms on record coming in with a central pressure of 924 millibars. This is the strongest storm to impact the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands since October of 1977. Back in October of 1977, another strong area of low pressure moved across the Bering Sea. Dutch Harbor, Alaska measured a central pressure of 925 millibars with that storm.
Monster Alaska Storm
Hurricane force winds and 45-50 foot waves can be expected across the Aleutian Islands and the Bering Sea tonight. The remnants of Nuri will have a ripple effect on the weather across the U.S. Thanks to Nuri, a strong ridge will develop across the West Coast and a large trough will develop across the rest of the country. This will open the door for cold Arctic air to move into the U.S.
Cold Air Coming Soon….
The coldest weather will be felt across the Northern Tier of the U.S. and the Rockies where temperatures will drop below zero degrees in the morning and only rise into the teens and 20s during the afternoon. We will see a big drop in temperatures here, but it won’t be as extreme.
Another batch of cooler air has moved across our area this morning. At least this weekend we will see sunshine thanks to an area of high pressure in control. (Remember we had the coastal storm with 50mph winds last weekend) Our temperatures were cold this morning.
A Few Low Temperatures
Other temperatures in out area were in the low-30s this morning. Many of you had a heavy frost across your lawns.
High Pressure In Control
That area of high pressure should give us sunshine all morning and into the afternoon. We should see a few more clouds this evening as a new storm system develops over the ocean. This storm will stay off our coast, but may bring some rain for the OBX tomorrow morning. Cloud cover is also likely tomorrow morning for our area. We should see more sunshine tomorrow afternoon. Highs on Sunday should be near 61 degrees. Our wind speeds will be much lighter this weekend. Wind from the south at 5-10mph today and north at 5-10mph tomorrow.
Some folks had some pretty rowdy weather yesterday evening. Others saw a brief gust of wind with a brief downpour and that was it. There weren’t too many thunderstorms, but the winds did gust above 40mph in a few locations. From the sound of it things were very windy with heavy downpours on the Eastern Shore.
Heavy Rain Yesterday
My weather watcher on the lower Eastern Shore (Doris) had about an inch of rain, and she said that the wind was strong for a while. Meanwhile Mike in Whaleyville only had a tenth of an inch of rain, and the wind wasn’t too bad. Here are some rain totals for the region:
Today we’ll have a lot of sunshine at first. Then an upper level pocket of energy will move through the region. This will increase the clouds, and could even produce a sprinkle. Winds will be northwest at 10-20mph. So highs will only rise to around 60. Tonight it will be pretty cold out. Winds will die down to northerly at 5-10mph. Lows will be in the 30s with some 40s near the shore.
Low Temps Tonight
Tomorrow we’ll have a lot of sunshine for the entire day. However, we’ll only see highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Winds will turn out of the south at 5-10mph. On Sunday I’m still seeing an offshore area of low pressure on the models. For now I’m only calling for a few showers over the Outer Banks. The models still aren’t in full agreement about the moisture from the system. One model has quite a bit of rain for the Outer Banks and a few showers in northeast North Carolina. Meanwhile another model has our region totally dry. So check back for updates, but I think the Hampton Roads area will remain dry on Sunday. We will warm up early next week, but some much colder air will move in by the end of the week. The models are calling for another Arctic Blast. Some say it will be tied into a very strong area of low pressure that will impact Alaska in the next 2 days. I’m not sure about the teleconnection, but the jetstream will definitely be heading south at that time.