Weather

Cold Front And Severe Weather

July 24th, 2014 at 10:26 am by under Weather

We are in the middle of coverage, but I wanted to just do a quick mention.  We’ve had strong storms in the region this morning along a cold front.  The system is moving east/southeast.  We have had reports of a tornado that touched down near the Cherrystone area of the Eastern Shore.  Here was the radar just shortly after that time:

Severe Storm On Radar

Severe Storm On Radar

We also had reports of large hail in that zone.  Storms continue this morning as the front slowly pushes east.  Heavy rain and strong gusty winds will be possible through noon.  There will be another round of rain later today.  The atmosphere has been worked over pretty good.  So the severe threat should diminish.  However, storms will likely fire up over northeast North Carolina this afternoon where storms have been sparse so far.  We’ll have a bigger update either later this morning or around the midday.  Be safe out there.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Depression 2 Has Weakened. A Cold Front. And Social Weather.

July 23rd, 2014 at 9:06 am by under Weather

*Update on Tropical Depression 2…see bold text below.

Ok, we’ve got a few topics in the cards today.  Let’s talk about the tropics first.  Tropical Depression 2 is having trouble hanging on.  By the time you read this, the system may be dead.  It was looking very ragged on the satellite by 8 am.

T.D. 2 On Satellite

T.D. 2 On Satellite

Officially, the system had winds of 35mph, and it was moving WNW at 20mph.  That’s a pretty fast mover for a tropical system, and it will probably act to weaken it further. So we are about ready to write off ole’ T.D. 2.

*11 AM Update: Tropical Depression 2 has weakened to a tropical wave. This weak area of low pressure will still bring some gusty winds and rain to the Lesser Antilles tonight.

Locally there will be some changes taking place across the region.  Today we started off with patchy fog in the region.  Otherwise it was a quiet morning.  We’ll go to partly cloudy skies today with some isolated showers and storms in the area.  High pressure is in control, so the chance for rain is fairly low.

Today's Weather Map

Today’s Weather Map

Winds will be southwest at 8-12mph.  High temperatures will be in the low/mid 90s with a few 80s near the shore.  So it will be hotter and very humid today.  Tomorrow, however, a large cold front will move through the region.  This will bring us a pretty decent chance for rain to the region.  I put the chance at 60%, but stay tuned.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The front will come through sometime between the mid morning and the early afternoon.  We could see some heavy rain and gusty winds along the front.  I would say that a half inch to an inch is possible, but higher amounts may form in a few of the storms.  We’ll still manage to get into the upper 80s, but I’ve backed off the 90s as the front looks to move through a little quicker.  We will start to dry out late Thursday night.  A stray shower could linger over North Carolina Friday morning. Otherwise, we’ll see some nice weather on Friday. Highs will be in the mid 80s.  We’ll see another nice day on Saturday with highs in the low/mid 80s and dry.  However, it will warm up again on Sunday. Highs will be in the low 90s again, and we’ll also see a few late day showers and storms.  Another mega cool-down is headed for the Midwest early next week (I’ll never call it the “Polar Vortex”.  Some of that cooler weather will move into our region by mid week.  Stay tuned for updates.

Finally, we’ve talked about the benefits and challenges of doing weather on social media.  The challenges have been more prevalent and increasing over the past couple of years.  Our region is not alone though.  There have been problems around the entire country.  Here is a new article from tvnewscheck.com.  Facebook No Friend To Weathercasters.  I have worked across town from both meteorologists Brad Travis and Dan Satterfield.  They really know their stuff.  So this article was especially enlightening to me.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


High Humidity And Tropical Depression 2

July 22nd, 2014 at 8:13 am by under Weather

I’ll start off talking about the tropics since that is the hotter topic right now.  I say that, but keep in mind that we are only talking about a tropical depression.  Yesterday was interesting.  I’m not criticizing, but…yesterday morning the National Hurricane Center had the area as a 10% chance for development.  By the mid morning it was a 50% chance.  Then by the midday it was 70%.  Finally, the area was classified as a depression during the afternoon.  That’s a big jump in a short period of time.  In their defense the system did organize during that time.  So today tropical depression number 2 is breezing westward over the central Atlantic Ocean.

T.D. 2 On Satellite

T.D. 2 On Satellite

T.D. 2 is moving west at 16mph.  It had sustained winds of 35mph.  The system is hitting some pretty dry air, and it is moving at a decent speed.  So the latest forecast keeps the system weak through Thursday.  Then the system is forecast to die out or become a remnant low near the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Tracker

Tropical Tracker

It’s possible that it could die out sooner, but it does have a few strong thunderstorms near the center this morning. So we’ll see.  There is a pretty high confidence in the forecast as the models are in good agreement over the strength and path.

Locally, we have some pretty quiet weather.  We have had some scattered showers since last night.  As they moved up from the south, a lot of them fell apart.  This as they encountered an area of high pressure that sits to our north.

Clouds, Rain, & Surface Features

Clouds, Rain, & Surface Features

Despite a small difference between temperatures on each side of the front, the humidity is thick both north and south of it. The exception is the Eastern Shore.

Dew Points

Dew Points

We’ll see some scattered showers over North Carolina today with isolated showers over Virginia.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Winds are from the east at 5-10mph.  Tomorrow the winds will be out of the south.  So high temps will rise to near 90.  We’ll have some scattered showers and storms in the afternoon, but not a high chance for rain.  A cold front will move in from the Midwest late Thursday into early Friday.  So a line of showers and storms is expected then.  We’ll cool down from 93 on Thursday to 85 for a high on Friday.  We’ll dry out by Friday afternoon, and we’ll stay dry through Saturday.  A few showers will try to return on Sunday with some heat returning as well.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tropical Depression TWO Has Formed

July 21st, 2014 at 2:47 pm by under Weather

There was a big afternoon update sent out by National Hurricane Center. We are watching an area of showers and thunderstorms located across the Central Atlantic.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

There was only a 10% chance of development last night, so that is why I didn’t talk about it. Now…since the disturbance has become more organized, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours. Satellite data has shown that the circulation has become more defined and the National Hurricane Center is saying that there is a small area of winds up to tropical storm force. We could see a depression or tropical storm develop at any time if the winds increase or if the storm becomes more organized. The next name on the list is Bertha. This disturbance is currently moving WNW at 15-20mph, heading for the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are favorable for development now, since the wind shear is low. But as this disturbance moves westward, it should encounter more wind shear, which would help to weaken the system.

Here are some computer model runs showing a preliminary track of this disturbance. Keep in mind that these track forecasts are extremely preliminary because this system hasn’t formed yet. I’m showing you this graphic to show the general westward movement of the system. Whether this develops into a tropical system or not, folks across the Lesser Antilles need to monitor this disturbance over the next few days.

Model Tracks

Model Tracks

I will have a full update coming up on WAVY News 10 at 4 PM and Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have more information on WAVY News 10 at 5 PM, 5:30 PM, 6 PM and 11 PM. Stay tuned!

NEW UPDATE: Tropical Depression TWO has formed in the Central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has the depression moving westward toward the Lesser Antilles by the end of the week. The depression will be moving into an unfavorable environment (increasing wind shear), not conducive for strengthening over the next few days. There is a chance that Tropical Depression TWO could weaken to an area of low pressure by the end of the week across the Atlantic. Stay tuned for updates!

Tropical Depression TWO

Tropical Depression TWO

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Warming Back Up This Week

July 20th, 2014 at 8:53 pm by under Weather

It has been unseasonably cool for summer standards in Hampton Roads over the past 5 days. High temperatures have been in the 70s and 80s since last Wednesday. Average high this time of year is 88°. The clouds and a persistent northeasterly breeze held temperatures down this weekend.

Past 5 Days

High Temperatures Over The Past 5 Days

It was not the sunniest of weekends, but not the rainiest of weekends either. We did see a few light showers here and there both yesterday and today, but most of us just saw a lot of clouds. Get ready for a gradual warm-up over the next few days. Highs will return to the 90s by the middle of the week. The weather pattern is going to remain unsettled this week. The jet stream will stay well to the north of us through the middle of the week. An upper level ridge will strengthen out west resulting in highs in the 90s and triple digits across the Southern Plains and the Desert Southwest.

Weather Pattern Monday-Wednesday

Weather Pattern Monday-Wednesday

Our next storm system won’t arrive until the end of the week. Until then, we will have slight chances for rain in the forecast almost every day. Several weak upper level disturbances will move across Virginia and North Carolina Monday through Wednesday. These pieces of energy will bring in some colder air aloft, which promotes rising air. Rising air creates showers and storms. So we will see the typical summertime pop-up showers and storms over the next few days. Don’t expect to see rain everyday because the rain that develops will be hit or miss. The best chance for widespread rain arrives late Thursday into Friday when a cold front slides through Hampton Roads.

Weather Pattern Thursday - Friday

Weather Pattern Thursday – Friday

There is a chance the cold front could stall out across the region next Saturday and Sunday. Cold fronts typically stall out across Hampton Roads during the summer months due to the weak steering winds aloft. If this happens, then we will see rain continue into next Saturday and Sunday. For more on the short term forecast, here is what you can expect for tonight and tomorrow. We will continue to see more clouds overnight and some patchy fog may develop by Monday morning. Some of the clouds will break up by tomorrow afternoon as highs rise into the mid 80s. Future Trak has a few showers and storms developing by 3 PM as an upper level disturbance moves across Virginia and North Carolina.

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

Notice that the best chance for rain will be across inland areas. Any rain that develops should fizzle out by sunset.

I hope everyone had a great weekend! Don’t forget to tune into WAVY News 10 at 11 for your latest forecast.

 

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 


Scattered Showers This Weekend

July 19th, 2014 at 8:52 am by under Weather

Across Hampton Roads we will see isolated showers and sprinkles this weekend. Remember the cold front that moved through our area a few days ago? That same front stalled just 200 miles offshore. As it slowly drifts back towards land a weak area of low pressure has formed along it. That is the source of the rain. Showers moved in to the OBX region this morning. We will see the rain move to the northeast today.

Future Trak @ 1pm

Future Trak @ 1pm

In to the afternoon we may also see a few showers across our area. Tomorrow, there may be a shower or two, but it is looking drier than today. Highs will be in the 70s today and 80s again tomorrow.

Beach Forecast:

Waves will be 2-4ft for VB and the OBX beaches. Rip Current Threats will be moderate thanks to the higher surf. Remember, if you are caught in a rip current; Don’t Panic! Swim along the shore to get out of it, and then swim towards shore.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Dry And Mild For Now

July 18th, 2014 at 8:30 am by under Weather

It was a great start to the day this morning, and it will be a great start to the weekend.  Since we had dry air and mostly clear skies, the temperatures dropped down to the low 60s in our inland locations.  It felt like a taste of Fall.  High pressure is in control of our weekend weather while a stationary front looms a couple hundred miles offshore.

Satellite, radar, & fronts

Satellite, radar, & fronts

We’ll have northeast winds today at 8-12mph.  We’ll be dry from start to finish.  Highs will be in the mid 80s with a few cooler readings near the shore.  Over the weekend the flow will turn more out of due east.  So the front will try to push back to the west as a wind-shift line.  This may bring a few showers to the region.  I only have a slight chance for Saturday, and a 30% chance on Sunday.  However, the models have been going back and forth on the rain chances for the weekend.  So stay tuned for updates if you have plans.  Believe it or not a few cities in the region still need rain.  A lot of the Peninsula up to Richmond missed out on the recent downpours that we had.  My weather watcher Scott in Yorktown barely had any rain over the last 3-4 days.  Here are some cities in the region and their departure from the average annual rainfall.

Departure From Avg. Rainfall

Departure From Avg. Rainfall

It’s interesting to see the huge differences in the region.  Norfolk is 3.15″ above average.  Elizabeth City is fairly close to average, but remember the recent downpours over Currituck county of 5″ or more.  Meanwhile Richmond is a whopping 3.44″ below the average.  If we get any rain over the weekend, then it will be very light and scattered.  So that shouldn’t change the gauges much.  Stay tuned for updates.

While we’ll see below average temps over the next few days, we’ll heat up to the upper 80s/low 90s by next Wednesday.  The humidity will increase by the weekend.  So enjoy the dry weather for now.

With the big recent cool down over a huge section of the country, there is a recent article that may be pertinent to the topic.  The sunspot activity has been very low lately.  In fact we are coming out of one of the weakest sunspot cycles in a long time.  They may have been responsible for some of the coolness of recent.  Let alone this past Winter.  Here’s the article: Quiet Sunspots. Could we be in for another cold Winter this year?  We’ll see.  Remember despite some regional coolness, we have been very warm globally.  According to a recent a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) article, the world had either its 2nd or 6th warmest year on record in 2013 depending on which data set is used. Here’s the article: NOAA Warm Earth.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Time To Chill Out!

July 17th, 2014 at 8:03 am by under Weather

Yep! After all of the rough weather for the past couple of days, we now have some nice weather on the way.  It wasn’t rough for everybody, but we had some strong-severe storms on Monday.  Then there was very heavy rain over northeast North Carolina yesterday.  My weather watcher in Currituck, NC (Greg) had 5″ in a short period of time.  Elizabeth City didn’t have that much rain, but they did get 1.85″.  This gives them 5.22″ for the month of July.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

The rain and the cold front have moved well offshore.  It is going to stall-out offshore near the Gulf Stream today.  The rain will stay east of us as well.

Satellite, Radar, & Fronts

Satellite, Radar, & Fronts

High pressure and drier air are pushing into the region.  Dew points are dropping from the 60s to the 50s.  It is going to be a very dry and comfortable afternoon.  Winds will pick up out of the northeast at 8-12mph with a few higher gusts near the shore.

As far as temperatures go…Here’s a neat look back at high temps for the month of July so far.

Recent High Temps

Recent High Temps

Clearly we’ve had some up and downs.  It’s been nice.  Even though we’ve seen periods of hot/humid weather, there have been some pretty good breaks in-between.  Notice that yesterday we had a high of 77 degrees at Norfolk International Airport.  We’ll see highs in the mid 80s today and tomorrow.  In fact, highs are forecast to be in the 80s for the next 7 days.  Lows will be in the 60s for a couple of mornings.

Other than a few showers on Sunday, the weekend looks great.  I’ll update more on that in tomorrow’s blog.  Till then… enjoy the great weather!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cooler Weather And Rain Arrive

July 16th, 2014 at 9:19 am by under Weather

As expected, things got pretty rough yesterday for parts of our area. We had many reports come in of trees down over sections of Virgina Beach.  Here was one photo sent it from Brie Sanders.

Tree Down, Virginia Beach

Tree Down, Virginia Beach

While there were only a handful of official reports from the Storm Prediction Center, we also had many unofficial reports come in. Here are the official reports:

Storm Reports

Storm Reports

In the reportit@wavy.com folder, I saw one report of part of tree down in Suffolk.  I saw one report of a limb down in Hampton.  On the official report I noticed that there was a wind gust report to near 60mph in Yorktown (yellow dot).  I didn’t see any damage reports from there, but I had one viewer on facebook say that they were on the Coleman bridge when that happened.  They said it was very scary, and they were surprised the report wasn’t higher.  I wouldn’t want to be on the Coleman bridge during any type of storm. That thing is taalllll.

It was interesting to watch. The weather was very quiet at the noon hour.  Then within about 45 minutes, the storms flared up.  They started inland and then pushed northeast.  Here is what it looked like around 3:30pm.

Satellite/Radar Yesterday

Satellite/Radar Yesterday

Showers and storms continued on and off during the overnight.  Then this morning they became some light/scattered showers.  Here are the rain totals for the last 24 hours.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

The rain from Elizabeth City all fell this morning.  My weather watcher in Currituck had nothing from yesterday, then he also picked up about 0.8″ between about 6 and 8am.  There was a whopping 2.76″ of rain at West Point, but Don in Toano only had 0.67″.  Oceana missed a lot of the rain, but I believe northeast Chesapeake and northern Virginia Beach had about 1-2″.  There was some street flooding reported there.

Today a cold front is still moving through the region, but very slowly.  There is also a weak area of low pressure creeping along the front.  So the rain will hang on for a little while longer.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

The models hold onto the rain through about the mid afternoon.  Then the drier weather should take over and end the rain.  We’ll dry out tonight with low in the 60s.  There may be some patchy fog.  Then tomorrow looks great.  We’ll see mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s.  Winds will be northeast at about 8-12mph.  We’ll see nice weather on Friday and Saturday too.  Just a slight chance for a shower on Saturday.  There’s a little higher chance for rain on Sunday, but the models keep going up and down with the rain chances.  So stay tuned if you have outdoor plans.

Now I looked at some of the technical stuff for yesterday’s storms.  There are some differences between last week’s and yesterday’s weather.  So I’m going to get very nerday ( I made that up) for this paragraph.  Anyone afraid or bored can skip to the end. Ahem… So yesterday we had a lot of instability.  According to the  SPC forecast tools, we started to see a CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) of about 4,000-4,500 J/Kg.  that is huge.  Plus, we had some upper level winds move in.  The 0-6km shear was about 30 knots.  That’s not too impressive, but it’s enough.  That’s also about the same as last Thursday.  However, yesterday we were in a wider area of those winds.  Last Thursday we had a jetsreak at the 700mb (millibars) level. We didn’t have that this time, but we did have some upper level divergence around the jetstream level (300 mb).  This means that winds were set up to spread out in the upper levels.  This promotes rising air underneath to take its place. Which is what storms like.  We had a lifted index of -7 to -8 yesterday.  That is also very unstable.  So the storms yesterday occurred on a larger scale.  (Basically the whole east coast).  They exploded around 1 in the afternoon.  They were roaring for a couple of hours, but then the outflows became widespread.  This shut off a lot of the storms as most temps dropped into the 70s.  So things quieted down during the evening.  Since the cap wasn’t too strong yesterday, the storms didn’t get a chance to build as tall as last week.  So there were few reports of hail yesterday. Also, I believe that there was a pocket of cooler weather at 700mb last week with that jetstreat, but I can’t prove it.  Either way, I am ready for some quieter weather.

The tropics are quiet right now.  Our weather will be quiet for a few days.  So enjoy the peace.  Seems like mother nature has had a little bit of high blood pressure lately.  This weekend is the Jazz Festival in Norfolk.  So let’s hope the weather stays calm for that.  Plus, Don Roberts is going to throw out the first pitch at the tides game on Friday.  We HAVE to have nice weather for that event.  Otherwise Don might have a bad throw.   :  )

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tuesday’s Severe Weather

July 15th, 2014 at 7:16 pm by under Weather

Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler talked about the possibility of severe weather in his blog from this morning. As expected, strong to severe storms quickly developed this afternoon as the upper level trough moved closer to Virginia and North Carolina. There were many boundaries (wind shift lines) across the area, some due to earlier convection. Once we saw enough heating, these storms rapidly developed along these boundaries. The severe storm over Virginia Beach produced a waterspout. Check out this awesome video sent in from Nancy Gorell. Meteorologist Don Slater and I noticed an area of rotation offshore during WAVY News 10 at 4. That area of rotation most likely produced that waterspout.

There were many reports of downed trees and power lines in Virginia Beach. We have also received numerous photos showing tree damage due to lightning strikes.  This photo was taken by Jordan Crute in Kempsville. Notice the large gash down the tree. That is where lightning stuck the tree.

Lightning Strikes Tree

Lightning Strikes Tree

Here is a close up photo of tree damage due to a lightning strike sent in from Jenn in Thalia.

Lightning Strikes Tree in Thalia

Lightning Strikes Tree in Thalia

Check out this tree damage sent in from Patrick Nolan in Virginia Beach. It looks like this large branch snapped off the larger tree that is still standing. Unfortunately, it looks like the branch fell on part of the roof causing damage to the house.

Lightning Strikes Tree

Lightning Strikes Tree in Virginia Beach

We are not done with the rain just yet, but the severe threat is winding down across the region. I wouldn’t be surprised if the severe thunderstorm watch was cancelled early.  Our Future Trak model has been doing a really good job with the placement of the showers and storms that developed earlier, so I am putting a lot of stock into the solution it has overnight. Scattered showers are still possible tonight. Here is what our Future Trak model has at 9 PM. Best chance for rain will be across our western areas.

Future Trak 2

Most of the rain fizzles out after midnight, but then re-develops early Wednesday morning as the cold front moves through Hampton Roads.

Future Trak at 7 AM Wednesday

Future Trak at 7 AM Wednesday

The front will stall out across North Carolina, so I expect scattered showers to continue into the afternoon there. But we should see drier conditions by tomorrow afternoon across Southeast Virginia. Get ready for a much cooler day tomorrow too with highs in the lower 80s. This is a strong cold front for this time of year. Drier weather is expected Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid 80s. Average high this time of year is 88°.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona