The three objects will be spreading apart from our perspective over the next week, so if the sky is clear in the morning look for the objects. For today we will be seeing cloudy skies with a few scattered showers possible.
Light Rain Today
Wind speeds will be also strong from the northeast at 15-20mph by the afternoon. Gusts could be over 25mph. This wind is going to push in a new swell where we could see 3ft waves today and 4 ft waves tomorrow at the beach. That will mean a high threat for rip currents. Tomorrow, we will still see strong winds, but the skies will be clearer. Highs will be near 77 tomorrow.
As of now, the storm system near the Dominican Republic still has not formed into a depression or tropical storm. There is a high amount of shear in the environment which has been ripping apart the storm. Shear is a change in wind speed with height. The higher the shear, the less likely a hurricane can develop and survive.
The forecast models are still all over the place. The 6Z GFS has this storm making landfall near Miami, FL. The Euro still keeps it out to sea.
SAT AM Tracks. (GFS = Redline, Euro = Greenline)
Notice how all of the models have it closer to land? Look at the snapshot I took yesterday:
Forecast Tracks (From Friday’s Models)
There is a closer to USA trend happening, also the storm is slowing down. Keep an eye on it as it may be named Christobal either today or tomorrow.
By 9am this morning the clouds cleared out and we have been getting a nice dose of sunshine. That sunshine will warm us up to the upper-80s today. That will be one of the ingredients for thunderstorms this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe weather today. We have a chance to see damaging wind gusts and hail if strong storms develop this afternoon.
Future Trak @ 2pm
Tonight we will see more rain as cooler air moves in from the north. For the next several days, starting tomorrow we will see northeast winds. These winds will keep us cooler and eventually dry. By Sunday we will be dry with highs near 80 degrees. The extended forecast looks dry as high pressure builds in to keep Hampton Roads dry into Wednesday.
Tropical Wave near Puerto Rico
We will see this storm move towards the Bahamas into the weekend. The National Hurricane Center will be sending another plane into the storm this afternoon to gather more data. They expect it to become a tropical storm by this weekend. The tracks are still all over the place, but there is starting to be more of a trend. That trend moves it due north towards Bermuda. On Wednesday, the models do keep it offshore from Hampton Roads, but still close by. We could see strong winds (30-40mph) because of the storm for the OBX if it gets any closer. At this point it is still early to really tell what exactly is going on. We will keep an eye on it over the weekend.
We had one thunderstorm develop this morning near Edenton and Hertford. As we go into the midday hours we will see more sunshine with temperatures climbing to the upper-80s. There is a new storm system in the Midwest right now. That is expected to move closer to our area by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday.
Future Trak Friday @ 3pm
The rain should begin after 2-3pm tomorrow. The storm system will move offshore Saturday and Sunday which will push in a strong northeast wind. That breeze will push in a new swell of waves for the VB Oceanfront and the OBX. That is good news for the ECSC where waves have been small all week.
Chest High + Waves may move in on Sunday. That will also mean we will see a high threat for rip currents this weekend.One of the issues will be the wind. That onshore breeze will keep the choppy conditions at the oceanfront.
I am still watching a storm system in the Atlantic, as of now it still is disorganized, but is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours.
Past this weekend, there is still low confidence in the models. The trend has it moving towards Bermuda and staying out to sea. Remember yesterday the tracks had it near the Gulf of Mexico. I will continue to watch this storm over the next few days.
Most folks would have considered yesterday quiet. However, if you were up on the lower Eastern Shore, then you may have had to head to higher ground. My weather watcher Doris in Machipongo said that she was out driving and she saw some of the heaviest rain that she’s ever seen in her life. Here was the view on the satellite/radar.
When she got back home she said that she had 2.5″ of rain, but more likely fell north of her home. Notice the rest of the region just had some scattered light showers. So most folks had a quiet afternoon. Today we will be in-between systems. One weak area of low pressure is moving offshore. Another is forming over the Midwest.
In Between Systems
Notice too that a cool front has passed through the region. So we are looking good today. Skies will be partly cloudy. We’ll have highs in the low 80s near the shore with mid 80s inland. Winds will be northeast at 8-12mph with a stronger breeze near the shore. By tomorrow the cool front will pass back north as a warm front. Dun dun duhhh. So we’ll have some scattered showers and a few storms in the region.
Despite the front, the models aren’t showing much rain for tomorrow. I put our chance for rain at 40%. High temps will aim for the mid-upper 80s. However, an area of low pressure will form along the front on Friday as it stalls out near the region. So the rain chances will increase. We’ll see a few lingering showers on Saturday, but I’m a bit dubious as it looks (to me) like the system will be moving out to sea. Stay tuned for updates. Sunday still looks good regardless.
Speaking of updates. There is an update in the tropics. There is a cluster of thunderstorms near the Lesser Antilles that is likely to develop into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. Currently it is a couple hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving west. It is forecast to develop and move into the Caribbean.
Forecast Models For Invest 96
Some models have it going into the Gulf of Mexico and even possibly becoming a hurricane. We’ll be monitoring this tropical feature over the next few days to see where it goes. Unlike other recent systems the global models actually do something with Invest 96. So we’ll see what happens.
The clouds got very dark, and then the rain moved in yesterday. We had street flooding over part of the region. Here was one example of that from Shirl Johnson in Virginia Beach.
The rain really dropped over that area in a short period of time. My weather watcher Donna in Blackwater had 1.3″ of rain in a span of about an hour. Greg in Currituck, NC had 0.9″. Both of these folks didn’t need any rain. However, my weather watcher Don in Toano had a quarter of an inch. Also, Doris on the lower Eastern Shore had a half inch. Both of those regions did need some rain. Here were some of the reports from the rest of the area:
This was all prompted by a pocket of energy in the mid levels as well as an area of low pressure at the surface. The low is still sitting near our region this morning.
It will slowly push east and offshore today. For a while it looked like the low would push away by midday and allow for some drying this afternoon. However, the models have been trending a little slower for that to happen. So while the rain chances do look to drop a bit this afternoon, they probably won’t drop much until the late afternoon/early evening. Highs will be in the mid 80s. Winds will be northeasterly at 5-10mph.
Tomorrow the front should push away, and the low should move offshore. So we’ll see quiet weather for Wednesday. Highs will be in the 80s. Then late Thursday into Friday another system will move into the region. Heavy rain will be possible once again. At least the weekend looks quiet for now.
The waves are still fairly low today at the oceanfront. They are running around 1ft. However, the waves are forecast to increase a bit tomorrow. They are currently forecast to pick up nicely by the weekend.
Thunderstorms developed off to our west earlier today. These storms moved across Hampton Roads early in the evening.
Shelf Cloud Moving into Norfolk
Look at the shelf cloud in this picture! A shelf cloud is the line of bright white clouds that you see in the picture. These types of clouds are usually on the leading edge of a thunderstorm. When you see a cloud like this it usually means the thunderstorm is strong and will contain strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Some areas in Virginia Beach saw over 2 inches of rain in under an hour. This caused street flooding in many areas. Looking ahead to tonight we should start to see a break from the thunderstorms, but the rain will continue.
Future Trak at 12 AM
Most of the rain should push offshore by tomorrow morning.
Future Trak Tomorrow at 5am
Scattered showers with an occasional rumble may occur, otherwise the severe threat is going to be low. We will keep an eye on these storms as we go into the evening.
Scattered showers will continue overnight. Severe weather threat is over, but heavy rain is still possible. Here are Tuesday’s rain chances starting at midnight tonight.
Tuesday’s Rain Chances
Scattered showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but the rain shouldn’t be as widespread as what we saw today. Rain will be hit or miss.
Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday
Tune into WAVY News 10 Today at 4:30 AM for another update with Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler.
There is a small line of strong storms moving through the area. It is holding together pretty well as it moves east. This may produce some damaging winds and large hail over some inland locations. Perhaps even into Hampton Roads. Here is what it looked like at about 2:30pm.
Super Doppler 10
The storms are moving east at about 35mph. Folks will need to keep monitoring the weather. Especially since many folks are down at the ECSC this afternoon. It will take a while before it gets to Virginia Beach, but some scattered storms will probably fire up out ahead of it. What interesting is that there isn’t much shear (upper level wind support) for this system. However, the instability has increased. Especially since we had a little sun break out. There is a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the region until 7pm. Scattered storms will continue into the afternoon and the evening as an area of low pressure moves in from the west. It will kick out tomorrow. So the rain chances will decrease as we head through the day.
Well the humidity has increased quite a bit lately. Also we’ve seen the on and off showers over the past 2 weeks. It has made for a mosquito heaven in our area. Especially yesterday. I noticed that they were swarming in my back yard. My son had about 5-10 bites within the first 2 minutes. I sprayed him after 1 minute, but it wasn’t enough. Mike, my weather watcher in Whaleyville, also noticed the same. We’ll see more rain today. In fact the rain chances will keep increasing through the afternoon. This as an area of low pressure moves east along a stationary front.
The area is very mixed as to who needs rainfall. I’d say that Virginia Beach into North Carolina is doing just fine on rainfall lately. However, from about Norfolk through the Peninsula and Middle Peninsula there are some areas that still need some rain. Jan, my weather watcher in Reedville, said that she still needs rain. So today the rain chances will increase in the whole region. Amounts will vary widely. Most areas will get about a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Then some folks may get over an inch of rain within the scattered downpours. High temps will struggle to reach the mid upper 80s. If there is some clearing, then we’ll hit the upper 80s solid. The humidity is high with dew points in the low 70s. The breeze won’t help either. We’ll see winds out of the southeast at only 5-10mph.
Rain may linger into tomorrow morning. However, scattered showers will taper off through Tuesday afternoon. That’s when the low should push offshore. Highs will be in the mid 80s tomorrow. We’ll hold on to the chance for at least a few showers for the next few days. Although it looks like Wednesday will only have a slight chance for rain. That’s not good news for the folks down at the ECSC. Unfortunately, the surfers will be pretty bummed out today. Not only is there a chance for rain, but also there are no waves out there. It is flat. It may pick up a bit later this week. The forecast calls for waves building to 2 feet. Maybe up to 3 feet by next weekend. Stay tuned.
In national news there are a couple of stories that caught my attention this morning. The first is that there is a corn surplus across the country. This despite a bad drought in the west. However, the Midwest corn belt is booming. Also, the demand has dropped lately. Especially with the lower number of cattle in the central U.S. Less cattle equals less feed. This is all found in a Wall Street Journal article here: Corn Surplus. Now if the food prices would just come down as well. Also, there is an article from the Daily Caller about how last year’s Winter storms put a lot of strain on the U.S. power grid. I didn’t realize it got that bad. If we get another bad Winter this year with big storms, then parts of the U.S. may be in trouble. Here’s the article: 2014/2015 Winter strain.
The heat and the higher humidity will be here to stay this week and rain chances will be going up too. Right now the best chance for rain this week looks to be Monday afternoon/evening into early Tuesday. We are tracking an upper level disturbance that is producing showers and storms across Kentucky and Tennessee right now.
This upper level disturbance is going to provide some cool air aloft. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90° tomorrow. So the hot air will rise and showers and storms will be able to develop. A stationary front will be located to our north, so we may see enhanced activity across our northern zones since that boundary will be a focal point for additional showers and storms. We should start off dry Monday morning with lots of clouds and temperatures in the 70s. Showers and storms will start to develop by the early afternoon. Notice that the rain is still hit or miss at this point.
Future Trak at 3 PM Monday
The rain becomes more widespread as we get closer to 6 PM.
Future Trak at 6 PM
The stronger storms will contain heavy rain, since we have plenty of moisture to work with across the region. The rain will continue Monday night and into Tuesday. Rainfall totals should range from 0.75″-1.5″ on average. Higher totals are possible in areas that see heavy rain. If you want to go to the beach tomorrow, the earlier you go, the better. By the afternoon, you may have to dodge the showers and storms. There will be a lot of clouds, so don’t expect much sunshine. There will also be a low risk for rip currents at the beaches.
Make sure you take the umbrella to work with you tomorrow! Chances are you won’t need it in the morning, but will need it by the afternoon.
Monday’s Rain Chances
We are watching an area of showers and storms in the central Atlantic between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center is giving this a 30% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 5 days.
A weak boundary is over Hampton Roads which brought the clouds and sprinkles this morning. It is part of a larger storm complex that is in the Midwest.
Weather Surface Map
That area of low pressure will be closer to our area tomorrow. That may help to bring in a few PM storms tomorrow. Thunderstorms are also likely on Tuesday. Over this upcoming week our temperatures will be near the 90 degree mark in the afternoon.
The area of energy we were watching near the Cape Verde islands has weakened and does not look likely to develop over the next 24 hours.
With the lack of an offshore hurricane this year the ECSC competition will be starving for waves during the first half of this week.
Wave Heights Monday @ Noon
Wave Heights This Week
I was hoping that Mon/Tues storm system could have brought in a windswell, but it looks like we’ll stay with waves at 1-2ft at best through Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday an offshore low may bring in a NE swell that could bring in some fun waves for the end of the week and possibly lingering in to the weekend.
I will keep an eye on the models regarding the swell and have another update later this week.