With the recent rainfall we still have a saturated ground. You can probably tell the air is nearly saturated by how humid it is today. Dew Points as of 10am were in the lower-70s. We will likely to continue having this high humidity for the rest of the day and possibly for most of this week.

Warm & Humid

The setup for this Monday is watching an area of low pressure track across the northern states. This will keep a strong south wind today and keep our temperatures and humidity high. As the cold front and center of energy in the atmosphere move in we also have a chance for seeing some strong thunderstorms this evening.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather out West

The risk for strong storms is mostly for Richmond and Raleigh, but Williamsburg, Gloucester and the Northern Neck are part of the slight risk.

Heavy Rain/Flooding Risk Today

Flash Flood Watch

All of us are under a flash flood watch for today until midnight tonight. That is why I have us in a higher risk for Heavy Rain/Flooding today. The timing for these storms should be early afternoon towards rush hour this evening across the Hampton Roads cities.

Future Trak @ 4pm

This model brings in the rain at or before 4pm. I have seen a few models bring in the rain around 6pm. The timing should be somewhere in that window of 4-6pm for the southside cities. 2-5pm for the Peninsula, and 5-8pm for the Outer Banks and Eastern Shore. Rainfall estimates are 1-2″ for today and tonight. Most of the rain will move out by tomorrow morning. I have us seeing some light rain tomorrow afternoon, but the chances are around 30%.

Wednesday will be a dry day, but the highs will be near 91° and the humidity will be stifling.

Stay cool and dry today!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

Most of your Sunday was dry, but we did have a few showers and storms develop a few hours before sunset. The severe storm in Southampton County barely moved and dumped heavy rain over the same area. Some places near Franklin saw 2-4 inches of rain in just 1-2 hours. These rainfall totals prompted a Flash Flood Warning. According to the National Weather Service, there are reports of trees down in Gum, high water in Sunbeam and half dollar size hail in Newsoms.

Radar Image with Warning

We may see a few more showers develop tonight, but I think the activity will diminish after sunset and then ramp up again tomorrow. There is plenty of moisture in place across the region. Check out the dew points.

Dew Points

We can typically feel the humidity when dew points are in the 60s. Dew points in the 70s are extremely high, which is why it feels so muggy and uncomfortable outside. Patchy fog may develop overnight in some areas if wind speeds come down.

A few widely scattered showers will be possible Monday morning.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Better chances for rain and storms arrive late in the afternoon and evening.

Future Trak at 5 PM

Rain should increase in coverage starting around 4-5 PM and should continue right through midnight. Looks like rainfall totals will range from 0.5-1 inch with higher totals possible. The cold front will move through Hampton Roads early Tuesday morning. Typically, we cool down after a cold front moves through the region. Instead, we will heat up even more! This front will bring in slightly drier air from the west, which will knock our humidity levels down a little bit for a day or so. Dry air warms up more efficiently, so temperatures will be soaring close to 90° Tuesday and Wednesday. Next strong cold front moves in late Thursday into Friday bringing another good chance for showers and storms along with “slightly” cooler weather for the end of the week and into the weekend.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

We are looking at another hot and humid day with highs in the 80s this afternoon. A few showers and storms are possible around the middle of the day:

Future Trak @ 1pm

Spotty Showers are possible around 11am – 3pm today as a weak area of low pressure moves across Hampton Roads. I don’t expect much more than 1/2″ of rain today from this disturbance. For the OBX there may be a few lingering storms in to the afternoon.

PM Storms for OBX

The rain chance will diminish after sunset. Tomorrow we have a small (30%) chance to see a few popup afternoon showers. Right now I am thinking the 3-5pm timeframe. Temperatures will be even warmer with highs close to 90 inland tomorrow.

Saturday Surf Update:

Surfers wanting to check out the leftovers from the Andrea swell should have decent 2-4ft waves today. High Tide was at 9am and Low tide will be at 2pm today, so this afternoon conditions should still be 2-3ft+ with an occasional 4ft wave as the swell recedes. Winds should be Southwest all day. Tomorrow 2-3ft waves are possible early in the morning, but count on 1-3ft waves for the afternoon.

1st St. Jetty Camera courtesy: Surfline.com

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

For some of us this has been a fairly quiet storm. Other areas have seen a true Tropical Storm. First of all Andrea has become post-tropical. Dry and some cooler air has infiltrated inside the center of the storm to slightly weaken it.

Andrea Weakens

Around Williamsburg there has been some very heavy rainfall. As of 6pm over 7 inches of rain has fallen in Williamsburg. Around 5″ of rain fell in and around West Point, and close to 3.5″ for Gloucester.

This storm will continue to quickly move north tonight. As it moves out of Hampton Roads the threats will diminish for our area. Tomorrow we will be looking at a dry day in the morning with a few scattered storms in the afternoon/evening.

Possible PM Storms Saturday.

Surf Update:

I am a bit late to give you a heads up, but tomorrow (Saturday) is looking like a great day to catch some waves. The swell left behind from Andrea will mean chest high sets for the Oceanfront (Jetty and North End) for tomorrow morning. We should also have a decent offshore SW wind tomorrow at 5-15mph. In the evening we may see a light NE wind develop, but the waves should still be a solid 2-3ft+ tomorrow. On Sunday the swell will diminish quickly and will likely be 1-2ft in the afternoon. I’ll be out there Saturday night somewhere between the North End and the Jetty, see you out in the surf!

High Rip Current Risk & Swell Saturday

Stay safe tonight, and remember if you see a flooded roadway turn around and find an alternate route.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

The 11am update came out a little bit ago on Andrea.  The National Hurricane Center has kept it as a tropical storm.

Andrea Track

Andrea has entered into southern North Carolina.  It was about 50 miles southwest of Fayetteville, NC in the last update.  It is moving quickly to the northeast at 28mph.  So it has picked up speed.  There have been some strong wind gusts near the shore from Charleston to Hatteras.  We’ve seen a few gusts between 30-40mph in that region.  Winds will increase in the metro area as the center gets closer.  We will see gusts up to 25-30mph inland and in the metro, with gusts up to 35-40mph near the shore later this afternoon into the evening.

Radar And Wind Gusts

There has been waves of rain coming through with peeks of sunshine at times.  These brief sunny spots are allowing us to warm up quite a bit. Some temps are in the 80s already. There was a long break in the rain between about Noon and 1pm across North Carolina and the Southside

Area Of Clearing

This is starting to really heat things up.  Plus, we have ample humidity at the surface.  So instability will increase, and that will probably increase the chance for severe weather later today.  Especially as Andrea gets closer and our local pressure drops.  We still have the tornado watch up until 1pm, but that will likely get extended north.  It will probably also get extended in time.

So far the rain has varied in amounts.  We have had anywhere from a half in up to 2 and a half inches of rainfall across the region.

Rain Totals So Far

The good thing is, is that this break in the rain will allow for the water to soak into the ground a bit before the next round this afternoon. Having said that there has been a steady line of rain right along I-95 that isn’t moving much.  This area will probably have some flooding and/or street flooding.  There is a flash flood warning for western Northampton County in North Carolina.   The system will move out tonight a little before midnight.  Winds will turn from southeast to southwest.  We will dry out for tomorrow morning, but we will see a few storms pop up tomorrow afternoon.  Chance for rain is still about 30-40%.  We should only have a slight chance for a shower on Sunday.

I’m still not expecting any tidal flooding.  Perhaps a small water rise on the sounds this evening, and also a little down towards coastal Hatteras with their stronger winds.  That’s all I expect though for tidal.

We’ll have more updates later today.  We will be doing updates on-air at the top of the hour.  Then we’ll have longer updates as it gets closer to 5pm.  Be safe out there.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Andrea is on track as far as the forecast goes.  The current sustained winds are 45mph, but those stronger winds have been offshore or near the shore. There is one important update that I need to mention.  There is a heavier rain band coming up from the south.  The center of circulation is over southern South Carolina, but the heavier bands have moved in earlier than the models had it yesterday.

Satellite/Radar

Because of this and the broad rotation in the atmosphere the Storm Prediction Center has put part of our area in a Tornado Watch until 1pm.

Tornado Watch

This watch could get stretched northward later this morning.

We have some heavy rain and are on track to get 1-3″ of rain with a few cities getting more than 4″.  The heaviest rain is supposed to be concentrated over in the higher elevations of western Virginia, but this recent band will will probably put down a good inch or two itself.  Our Future Trak model actually picks up on a dry pocket of air that is south of the storm.  So it brings a little clearing up this way towards the afternoon.

Future Trak (3pm)

If this happens, then it will decrease the chance for flooding, but it will increase the chance for severe weather as we would get some heating and therefore more instability.  Winds are light this morning, but will pick up this afternoon to southeast at 15-25mph with gusts up to 35-40mph near the shore.  I am still not expecting tidal flooding, but street flooding is very possible from the heavy rain.

This is a quick blog.  I’ll try to post one with more detail later this morning.  We will have updates throughout the morning and afternoon on TV and online.  Be careful driving this morning.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

We’ve been following the latest on tropical storm Andrea, and it has definitely strengthened in the last 6 hours.  In fact when you look at the satellite and radar, it looks like it may be briefly trying to become a hurricane.

Andrea On Satellite/Radar

Now there is some dry air just to the west of the storm.  However, look at how the storms (orange/red areas) are wrapping into the center of circulation.  This is a clear sign of strengthening as the upper level winds (shear) aren’t strong enough to blow the storms away from the center. In fact the structure is looking so good, that I wouldn’t be surprised if Andrea briefly becomes a hurricane for one update.  Keep in mind though that the water temperatures are cooler along the west coast of Florida.  Also, the dry air may be trying to wrap into that center on the southern end.  So I suspect that the storm would resume weakening after several hours even if it does drop its pressure.  The latest info from the National Hurricane Center has Andrea located about 160 miles west of Tampa, FL.  It is moving north/northeast at 13mph.  The sustained winds were near 60mph, and the pressure had dropped to 997mb.  Heavy rain was pouring over a huge portion of Florida.  They can expect 3-6″ there.  This storm is forecast to make landfall over Florida later today.  Then it is expected to move northeast over land and along the coast.

The latest computer models do generally agree on the forecast track, and now the GFS and European models agree on the speed.  The NAM doesn’t look like it’s capturing the strength of the storm very well.  It is doing a good job with the rain though.  It has the storm moving northeast, weakening, and then passing through the region as a very broad area of low pressure.  It is a bit slower than the other models, but I don’t like its solutions.  I also don’t trust it much with tropical systems.  Both the GFS and European models take the storm inland sometime this evening over the Big Bend of Florida.  Then they put it over South Carolina by Friday morning.  They quickly push it into our region late Friday into Friday night.  It does look like it weakens at that point.  Hopefully to a depression or remnant low.  Looks like Andrea will shoot away from us after that.  Here is our computer model (Future Trak) on Friday at 10pm.

Future Trak 10 PM Friday

It is just a little slower than the other models.  The latest track from the National Hurricane Center is a blend of the GFS and European models.

Track Of Andrea

Here are some of the impacts that we can expect from the storm.  Some showers will start up late today into tonight way ahead of the storm.  A few showers may be around tomorrow morning, but the bulk of the rain and heavy downpours are expected Friday afternoon and evening.  That is when we could see 1-3″ of rain and some cities even more. I think our model is underestimating things a bit, but here is its latest forecast:

Forecast Rain Totals

I suspect that it will increase the rain totals as the storm gets closer.  Due to the speed of this storm and the eventual weakening, I do not anticipate any tidal flooding.  We may see some localized flooding from the heavy rain, but the recent dry ground should soak up a lot of what initially falls.   Ponding on roadways and some flooded back yards will be a good bet.  Winds are expected to pick up in that same time-frame.  Winds will be southeast at  15-25mph with some gusts up to 35-40mph near the water.  This typically doesn’t do much damage.  There may be some scattered power outages, but I don’t think that will be a huge issue.
Finally, we could see some isolated tornadoes.  There is already so much rotation in the atmosphere when tropical storms systems move through.  Some of that rotation is concentrated in a thunderstorm and therefore a quick spin-up can occur.  These are usually very quick/weak tornadoes that don’t do much damage.  Not like the monsters in Tornado Alley.  Still any possible warnings need to be treated with respect.

Things are coming together a bit on this with the exception of the strong look it has on radar.  There will be an update out later this morning. We’ll get another blog out later today.  Tropical storm warnings are in effect for our region.  That means that some of the gusts may be up to 40mph, and so the warning is basically a precaution.  Remember a tropical storm has winds of 39mph up to 73mph.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

It’s official.  Tropical Storm Andrea has formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  It has sustained winds of about 40mph.  It’s about 310 miles southwest of Tampa Florida moving at an “uncertain” (NHC) northerly direction at less than 5mph.  The general thinking from my previous blog has not changed much.  The models still generally bring the system north/northeast through Florida tomorrow.  Then an upper level trough will pick it up and accelerate it to the northeast on Friday.  The timing and the placement of the models still differ.  The NAM actually takes it slower through western Virginia by late Friday.  The GFS has the low jumping or reforming ahead of a cold front as it moves through the region during the day on Friday.  It has it as a broad area of low pressure when it moves through.  I can’t see it remaining a tropical system for long after landfall looking at either of these models.  The European model still keeps an intact low through the period and brings it through mostly late Friday into the overnight hours.  It looks like a pretty reasonable solution, but I would also buy into the reforming of the center on the GFS.  So most likely we would see a blend of the two models.  Sorry for getting a little technical there.  Let’s dumb it down a little.

Here is the latest track from the National Hurricane Center:

Track Of Andrea

They follow the European track pretty closely.  If it holds this track then it will be in northeast North Carolina by Friday morning, and would quickly speed through Virginia during the afternoon and evening.  All of the models show heavy rain now.  There’s so much moisture coming up that I don’t think the heavy rain greatly depends on the exact track.  However, a small area of flooding rain (possibly) may set up near the center.  Here is the latest forecast for rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center (formerly the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center).

3 Day Rainfall Forecast

I still don’t see any tidal flooding from this.  It’s just not that type of setup.  The winds may pick up to 35mph in some of the gusts, but overall I don’t think the winds will be too bad.  With the broad rotation in the atmosphere, there will be a chance for some isolated tornadoes in the region.  These are usually small/quick types though.  Not like the monsters in the Plains.

There is some dry air in place right now.  Also, despite recent rain the ground is starting to dry out.  So unless we get over 2-3inches in an hour, then we should be able to soak up a lot of that rain.

The system will move out on Saturday.  Some of the models still have some scattered showers and storms firing up along a lingering boundary behind Andrea, but the rain chances look much less than Friday.  I’d say 80% chance for Friday.  20-30% Saturday morning.  Up to a 40-50% chance Saturday afternoon.  We may be able to drop that so stay tuned.  Even less chance for Sunday. Chief meteorologist Don Slater will have an update tonight.  I’ll be in with a full update tomorrow morning.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

There are several areas of active weather across the country.  There are more storms in the Plains and there is more rain in the Midwest.  The new boy in town is the potential tropical system in the Gulf Of Mexico.

Active Weather Regions

To me it looks like the system in the Gulf is starting to get its act together.

Satellite/Radar

So far most of the storms have been well east of the center of low pressure, but it looks like some of the storms may have started to wrap in closer to that center this morning.  This could become a tropical depression or tropical storm Andrea in the next 24-48 hours.  The National Hurricane Center has a 50% chance for this developing into a tropical system.  Their latest statement says that the circulations still remains poorly organized.  They might investigate it later today with flight reconnaissance.  So stay tuned for updates.  It is already bringing heavy rain to south Florida.  The models do pick up on this system, and bring it into Florida as a weak system by tomorrow.  There is a big upper level trough (dip in the jetstream) over the central U.S.  While it is currently aiding storm development over Oklahoma and Kansas today,  it will also help to move the Gulf low northward over the next couple of days.  As the trough slides east, the upper level winds out ahead of it will be south/southwesterly.  This will pick up the Gulf system and move it along the east coast through the weekend.

I’m thinking it will be a weak non-tropical low as it heads up this way.  However, some of the surrounding tropical humidity will move up with it. This will create a region of heavy rain as it interacts with the relatively cooler/drier air in place right now.  The track for that heavy rain area has been shifting with each model run, but it looks like it will generally lie over or very near the viewing area sometime from Friday through early Saturday.

So with all that said. Here’s what it looks like for our local forecast…We’ll see some more Great (with a capital G) weather today due to a big dry airmass and an area of high pressure.  Skies will be mostly sunny with upper 70s and light east winds.  There will be some 80s inland.  Tomorrow most of the day will be rain free, but late in the afternoon into the evening we’ll have some scattered showers and storms.  These will push from North Carolina into southeast Virginia.  Some of the heavy rain will already start to move in by Friday even though the low will likely be to our south.

Future Trak (6AM Friday)

Friday has the highest potential for rain and heavy rain, but the location of the heaviest downpours will depend on the track of the low.  If it does move right across the region, then there may be a potential for severe weather as well.  We could even see a threat for isolated tornadoes as there may be a quick moving area of helicity near the low.  By Saturday the system looks like it will have moved through and should head off towards the northeast states.  However, a weak boundary left behind the system could trigger at least some scattered showers and storms. Due to this feature I put the rain chances at 50-60%. By Sunday the rain chances go down to a 20-30% chance as the boundary will likely wash out.  Speaking of… I don’t think this weekend will be a washout.  So don’t cancel your outdoor plans just yet.  However, I would have a backup plan for outdoor events on Friday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler