As of this writing early Friday morning the tide is rolling back into the area. The high tide yesterday evening was officially 2 inches below hurricane Isabel in 2003 for the metro area. Many people have reported tides higher than Isabel and many have said it was lower. Why the discrepancy? This noreaster has brought a consistent northeast wind throughout the storm. That tends to pond the water in areas “downwind” of that direction. With Isabel, the wind started northeast but turned east and then southeast at the time of high tide. This tended to push the water a bit higher on the shores facing the east and south. So it simply depended where you live. Tides on the Eastern Shore, Outer Banks, and northern areas on the Chesapeake Bay experienced tides running about 1 foot or so below Isabel levels. The high tide this morning will be less than yesterday evenings…but it will still be severe!

We just got the official reports in from the National Weather Service.  Here are the wind gusts from earlier this evening: Norfolk International: 74mph at 6:11pm, Wallops Island 59mph at 7:58pm, Oceana Naval Air Station 75mph, Elizabeth City 54mph at 2:04pm.  Some of these wind gusts are hurricane strength, even though this was not a hurricane. 

Rain totals from NWS: Newport News airport 8.99″, Norfolk International 6.06″, Langley Air Force Base 9.07″, and NAS Oceana had 7.82″. 

The sheriff’s office was  evacuating some residents in the Gloucester Point area this evening.  I got a call from a viewer that said that a lot of people had 3-4 feet of water in their home in the Guinea Neck section of Gloucester County.  We have about 160,000 people without power in southeast Virginia.  I’ve seen probably 20-30 instances of cars flooded.  I’m sure there were 10 times that, but I have no proof.  We are getting reports from just about everywhere of tidal flooding being on the the same level (roughly) as Isabel.  Some residents had a little more, some a little less this evening.  You have to remember that the rain around the region was a lot, but varied from place to place.  This rain is significant when you add it to the tidal flooding.  Also, different folks may have leaves or other debris clogging their storm drains.  The winds are finally beginning to taper off tonight as of 9:30pm.  The winds won’t die off completely overnight.  They’ll stay up through the day tomorrow too, but will be more in the 15-20mph range with gusts to 25 maybe 35mph. 

The next high tide between 5-7am is expected to be close to the one this evening.  If these cursed winds can stay down where they are now, then the tide will be a little less than this evening.  Maybe by about 5inches.  If the winds pick up again, then they will be close to the evening’s levels.  I doubt we’ll see another wind event like we saw earlier this evening.  That was a brief, forceful core of winds that moved across the area.  When people wake up and begin to go out tomorrow, I think we’ll see a lot more damage than we have already seen.  Jon Cash was definitely right in calling this a historic event.  We’ll see how much so after the dust settles. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The winds have increased as the low offshore has increased a little in strength.  We are seeing some gusts to near 70 mph.  This storm has changed quickly.  With these strong gusts we can expect more power outages a now some wind damage.  Stay away from windows until the winds settle down.  This is on the Southside and Peninsula.  It’s possible that the winds are using less friction with the high water.  Stay tuned.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

It looks like we topped off at about 7.56ft at Sewell’s Point.  (At 6:00pm it moved a little higher to 7.63ft, but it should be dropping soon).   It takes a while for the water to go down though, so be patient.  Also the winds gusted briefly to 60 mph in Norfolk.  The winds are still really gusty here at the station.  We’ve gone from 11mph up to 36mph in a short period of time.  You’ve probably seen Mary Kay Mallonee reporting from Ocean view.  She’s been rocked by the winds. 

I haven’t seen too many direct reports from the Peninsula, but there are sections of Hampton at least that have had cars flooded. 

Finally, DON’T move the power line in your yard.  Call the fire department if that’s the case.  Don’t even go near it. 

Check out the previous blogs as there is much more information.  This is just a quick update.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

I think it’s good news, but I don’t want to get anyone’s hopes up.  The rain is letting up across North Carolina with a few isolated exceptions.  Some upper level dry air has wrapped into the system.  We are not done with the rain, but the steady/constant rain is easing.  That easing is moving onto the southside.  Rain totals are updated now with Greg in Currituck getting 13.1″ of rain so far.  Donna in Blackwater (SouthVirginia Beach) had 13″.  A viewer in Suffolk (Magnolia) received 10″ of rain.  Pam in Gloucester just called in 6.5″ of rain.  Things have definitely improved along the Outer Banks in terms of rain and wind, but the waves and tides are still rough.  Here’s the latest radar image from Super Doppler 10: (4:20pm)

  Winds have varied over the last couple of hours.  They have been really gusty.  There have been some periods of letup followed by some gusts to about 45mph.  Winds are still forecast to stay up tonight.  With the easing rainfall, perhaps the winds will not gust as high as this afternoon.  No promises though.

The other bit of good news is that the tide forecast has changed a little.  Here is the updated tide history/forecast from the National Weather Service:

You’ll note that the high tide for Sewell’s point has come down several inches (not seven, several) from the previous forecast.  Also it may be hinting at coming in even below this forecast as it is bending a little at the last red x.  Again I don’t want to get folks hopes up, but it’s possible that this tide won’t be as high as forecast.  It will still be worse than this mornings tide.  At the low end 7.2ft.  At the high end 7.8ft.  This morning was 6.7ft.  Again this is at Sewell’s Point.  For some context about these numbers please read the previous blog.  Also the new forecast calls for the highest tide for tomorrow morning now.  Stay tuned, the tide forecast has been changing often, but that is natural in these situations.

I wish I could talk about every area, but you can see from the comments that a lot of people are affected by the rain and tidal flooding.  I’ve got pictures of flooded streets coming in from parts of Poquoson, Windsor Woods in Virginia Beach, Sandbridge, Bennetts Creek Marina in Suffolk, Armistead in Hampton, Quail Run in Moyock, Norview and Tidewater Dr. in Norfolk….This list goes on.  We have about 1,300 emails from folks, and they are still coming in.  So we can’t mention everybody.  Again don’t head out tonight if you can help it.  There is a lot of street and tidal flooding out there tonight.  It’s rough out there. 

Finally, Nicole Livas just mentioned that the Color Purple has been cancelled for this evening.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Ok folks.  I braved the way into the station this morning.  It’s bad out there.  If you have an appointment or meeting tonight, then you need to cancel it.  Tomorrow…cancel it.  Yes some folks will make it through.  Interstates have been doing fine.  But I’m getting a lot of reports that the secondaries are still flooded and we are at low tide.  When we hit high tide this evening those roads will add on another foot to foot and a half.  This morning’s high tide was about 6.7ft at Sewell’s Point.  Tonight’s high tide will be between 7.5 – 7.8 ft.  Ths is just below Hurricane Isabel’s levels.  Here is the latest tide forecast/history from the National Weather Service:

I don’t have the actual tide from Gloucester Point, but Yorktown got up to about 6ft this morning.  The tide there this evening will be around 6.5ft -7.2ft.  (rough estimate)  This is above Mean Lower Water.  Basically that’s the height above the lowest tide possible for the area.  I know it’s confusing, but at least you can relate each number to the other.   Wachapreague got up to about 7ft this morning.  The next high tides will only be about 7.5ft or a tad more there.  This is considered moderate tidal flooding.  Jon had been saying that the Eastern shore wouldn’t be as bad as the southside due to the direction the wind is coming from.   The Outer Banks tidal flooding shouldn’t be too bad on the south end (Rodanthe, Hatteras), but overwash is possible from Nags Head Northward. 

I don’t have the tide during Ernesto in 06′, but the tide at Sewell’s Point during the Thanksgiving Nor’easter of 06′ was 6.77ft. 

On top of the tidal flooding we are getting general flooding from the heavy and persistent rain.  Weather watchers are calling in rain totals over 8″.  Greg in Currituck recorded 11″ for a storm total.  Scott in Pembroke, VA Beach recorded 9″ total.  Ed in Williamsburg has received 5.7″ so far.   This is adding to the flooding problems. 

I just checked the main rivers.  The Blackwater River in Franklin is forecast to crest at 9.3ft  on Saturday.  Flood stage is 12ft.  The Nottoway Creek at Sebrell is forecast to reach 10.7ft.  Flood stage is 16ft.  If you live on another River and have some conditions, then please leave a comment below.  So they are looking pretty good with less rain than we recieved on the southside and in North Carolina. 

The winds will gradually taper off Friday afternoon.  The winds could still gust to 55mph near the shore through tomorrow morning. 

Be safe everyone.  Please don’t head out.  You may get stuck as many city blocks have low points.  You may be able to get in to a location, but not get out.  I’ll try and update again later this evening. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The new forecast is for the high tide this evening to hit 7.5 feet above mean low water level or average low tide. Stick a ruler in that water and measure up 7.5 feet…that’s how high the water should go this evening. This morning it hit 6.7 feet..so a good 10 inches higher…and compare that to 7.9 feet for Isabel…and that’s only a few inches below Isabel! Here’s the deal. The current near shore wind during the early morning hours is 50-60 mph. I believe those winds will decrease slightly through the afternoon…if they don’t…then that wind will push even more water into the coastal zones and the flood could come too close to Isabel levels. Stay tuned on this one.
Jon Cash

Today is the day! The highest winds and the worst tides will occur today as the remnants of Ida glides by just south of Hatteras. The low has gotten close enough to the southern part of the Outer Banks to allow the pressure gradient (difference in pressure) to relax greatly…so the wind hasn’t been bad at all down there. While Hatteras has been experiencing 25 mph with gusts…Duck to Corolla has been experiencing 50 mph gusts and they are close to 60 mph from Sandbridge to Cape Henry. It’s all about where the greatest pressure “gradient” is that leads to the highest winds…hence the biggest waves…and then the biggest problems with flooding, overwash, and coastal property damage.
Jon Cash

This evening’s high tide ran slightly above predicted which makes me think that tides could top 8 feet by Thursday afternoon/evening’s high tide.  During the height of Isabel, the tide was 7.9 feet.  The highest tides for Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina will be between 4pm-7pm Thursday and 4am-7am Friday.  If you live in a low-lying or flood prone area, please move your vehicle to higher ground and do not attempt to drive through water of unknown depth.  If your area flooded during Isabel, chances are it will flood again.  Hopefully you already have a “hurricane kit” in place so you don’t have to run out to the store to get supplies at the last minute.  As of this writing, there are already 8000+ homes without power in Hampton Roads/NE North Carolina due to downed trees.  Winds offshore are already gusting to 56 mph at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel and could gust close to or even over 60 mph Thursday and Thursday night.  As more rain continues to fall, the saturated ground will likely lead to more downed trees and power outages.

If you don’t have to travel over the next couple of days, it may be better just to stay home.

Stay safe.

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

This November Noreaster will be a very strong storm. The key to the forecast will the exact wind speed just off shore. The Ash Wednesday storm of 1962 brought tens of millions of dollars in damage to the area and a tide one foot higher than Isabel in 2003. That storm was three days long. The offshore winds were 60-65 mph for three days leading to that historic high tide. Currently the thinking is that the winds will be running 45-55 mph off shore for three days…that lower wind should keep the tide just below Hurricane Isabel levels…any increase of decrease in that wind will either add to or subtract from the water levels and the damage in the region.  Remember the tide was one foot higher during Ash Wednesday than Hurricane Isabel.  With the projected winds from this storm…the tide should top out a big below Hurricane Isabel.  So the wind speed offshore is CRITICAL to this forecast and the damage that could occur.  Stay tuned!

Jon Cash