WAVY.com Blogs » Weather

The Winter Forecast

Jon Cash — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:30:12 +0000

Everybody is emailing me about the Winter Forecast. Some major weather firms across the country are forecasting a cold snowy Winter for this area. While I love snow more than any human alive…I am not prepared to make such a forecast. In fact I must tell you the science behind long-range forecasting is so suspect…I simply ignore it. I would love to do those forecasts because I know everybody is curious about the season ahead. But this fact is irrefutable…nobody can accurately forecast the weather more than 5-7 days in advance. The Farmers Almanac can not…the hurricane forecasters cannot…rug rats and groundhogs cannot…the smartest Doctor of Weather cannot. This is why I do not place much trust in the forecasts for global warming…if we can’t accurately forecast the weather a week or two in advance…then why I should I place my faith and trust in a forecast a decade or more out including the global warming hype? The variables that go into forecasting are simply too complex and variable and often not measured well on an empirical basis to be very accurate. So enjoy those forecasts but don’t be surprised when they are wrong!
Jon Cash

Next Weekend; River Update

Jeremy Wheeler — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 22:59:05 +0000

This will be just a quick blog. The models have come in a little weaker with the next system on Sunday. Saturday looks fine with partly cloudy skies and highs near 60. It will still be breezy on Sunday though with scattered showers and highs in the upper 50s. We still could see some minor tidal flooding, but it shouldn’t be bad.

The Blackwater River near Franklin is going down. It is at 11.32ft. Flood stage is 12ft. The Nottoway is still pretty bad according to the numbers. It was at about 18ft today. That is the threshold between minor and moderate flooding. It is going down and should be below flood stage by about Friday afternoon. If it is still bad out there, then please leave a comment. Or you can email us at weather@wavy.com.

The forecast for the next 24 hours is quiet. Clearing skies tomorrow with highs in the low/mid 60s.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Few More Photos, Weekend?

Jeremy Wheeler — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 23:38:07 +0000

These ants were riding out the Nor’easter’s flooding. I’ve never seen anything like this before. Biologists are probably used to sights like these. Hmm.

This was another photo from Terry Thompson in Hampton:

This was from First St. between the Bay and the Salt Ponds marina.

This third photo is from Mathews county near the North River. It’s from Tolar and Debra Nolley.

This upcoming weekend we’ll see another system move through the region. It will move through much quicker than last week’s Nor’easter, but it will let the winds pick up. We will probably have some minor tidal flooding. If the system slows down then we may see some problems. It’s still early though. It’s not expected to be as bad as the last system. It will probably be more of a problem for the Northeast states this time. I’ll have more details tomorrow.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Leonid Meteor Shower

Cheryl Nelson — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:47:30 +0000

After all the bad weather we’ve had recently, I wanted to post some good science news.

The Leonid Meteor Shower peaks each November and this year’s shower will peak around 4 AM Tuesday morning, November 17th. Over the Northern Hemisphere, we can expect to see 20-30 meteors per hour. With a new moon and mainly clear skies, viewing conditions will be ideal tonight. If you’ll be heading outside to view the meteor shower, make sure you have a jacket. Temperatures will drop to between 46 and 53 degrees overnight.

Happy viewing!

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

More Nor’easter Damage

Jeremy Wheeler — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 14:31:40 +0000

We are sifting through the photos of damage. We’ve had a lot of flooding photos, but I haven’t had a lot of aftermath photos. The tide this morning was the last of the significant tides. Even that was minor. We’re still expecting minor flooding on the Blackwater River. Possibly some moderate flooding now on the the Nottoway near Sebrell, VA. Here is a photo from the Blackwater River:

This was taken by Vonnie Raiford from Burdette Bridge near Franklin. The water has probably come up a little since then.

Here’s another tree on a house. This one was from Newport News. It’s from George Link.

This was some flooding in the Wachapreague area on the Eastern Shore. It was a carnival area. This was taken by Mike and Mary Kay Hawker.

This was a tree that fell on some power lines over in the Western Branch section of Chesapeake. This was sent in from Bill Stavenger. Even inland locations had some strong wind gusts.

This was some debris from South Nags Head on the Outer Banks. Jon Cash and I both think that the debris was from one or more houses as a hot water heater is in view. This photo is from Annette Ratzenburger.

I’ve seen some marina damage, but I haven’t seen a boat submerged like this. This was at Menchville Marina in Newport News. It was sent to us from Jacob Biever.

Finally to lighten things up a little. Here are some Otters from Phoebus in Hampton:

The photo is from Janet Gordon.

Thanks to everyone for sending these in. We are still sorting through the photos. We’ve got it down to about 2,600 left. As always I encourage you to look at some of the previous blogs for more photos and some explanations about what occurred. We’ll be posting more I’m sure.

By the way the forecast is dry all the way through Thursday. So we’ll all have a chance to clean up now.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Improvement Coming Soon!

Cheryl Nelson — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 04:55:06 +0000

We’ve all been through a rough few days in Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina. Thankfully, improvement is in sight for many of us. However, we will see at least one more round of minor tidal flooding on Sunday morning. Tides are still running about 2 feet above normal and minor tidal flooding will occur between 6am and 8am. River flooding will also be an issue along the Blackwater River at Franklin and the Nottoway River at Sebrell. The Blackwater River is currently at 13 feet and will rise to about 13.5 feet in the next day or so (flood stage is 12 ft). The Nottoway River is currently at 15.4 feet and will rise to about 17.8 feet over the next few days (flood stage is 16 ft). Minor tidal flooding is expected at both locations.

For the rest of us, expect gradual clearing from west to east on Sunday. Be patient for the sunshine. If the beaches stay socked in with clouds for most of Sunday, sunshine is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday! Can’t wait for the sun to return!

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

After The Storm

Jeremy Wheeler — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:40:56 +0000

The last of the moderate high tides is starting to recede. Now we’ll see minor tidal flooding during the next 2 cycles. We’ll see tides rise back up to about 4.5 ft between 6-8pm tonight and 6-8am tomorrow morning. We rose up to about 5.56 ft this morning at Sewell’s point. The heavy rain is over with, but persistent drizzle and/or light showers will plague the day. We are getting in a lot of photos. About 4,000 in all. Some are very telling.

Here’s a picture of some damage to one of the hangars at Norfolk International Airport according to Jeff from Landmark Aviation.

This was sent in by Thomas M. He says this is the inside of Alexander’s On The Bay. We’ve heard conflicting reports about the damage it received.

The Anderson’s sent this in from Poquoson. Looks like the National Guard was out helping folks.

This was some of the common flooding we saw. This was taken by Tony in Park View, Portsmouth.

This was taken by Michelle Johnson. It shows some damage from a tree falling on a house in the Kempsville area of Virginia Beach.

This was taken by Earl Beasley in Hampton. He says the dock floated up above the main pier and caught on some pilings. He said the tide was just a little higher than Isabel.

Finally, this was taken by Steve Simmons in Rodanthe. Looks like it will take a while to repair that road. I’m still not sure of the status of highway 12 south of Oregon Inlet down to Hatteras.

We’ll get more photos on here. There is a slide show on wavy.com, but the blogs will still be up for months…I hope.

Again tidal flooding improves today along with the winds, but light showers/drizzle will continue. A coastal flood warning is still in effect for the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck for this afternon. Flood advisories are in effect for the rest of the coastal cities from the Eastern Shore down to the Outer Banks. Tomorrow the low pressure system finally moves far enough away that it will not affect us except for possible spotty drizzle in the morning. We will probably see a little sunshine tomorrow afternoon. There are flood warnings for the Blackwater River at Franklin and the Nottoway River at Sebrell. Minor flooding is expected. Before I go I encourage you to check out the previous blogs. They have some photos, but also a lot of information on the storms. Thanks to all who left comments. I try and write the blogs to them, rather than reply to each one.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Livin’ on lake WAVY

Stephanie Harris — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 22:24:15 +0000

High Water

On our way

Well I always wanted a house on the lake…instead I work on one. We’re approaching high tide on our second full day of this Nor’easter and the flooding is back in force. Don is telling us right now that its not over. Will we ever get home? Not that I’m complaining (too much). Covering events like this is always and incredible adventure. This one, for me, started with an unusual ride to work. The firefighters from station one in Portsmouth helped two co-workers and me get to WAVY yesterday. No, we didn’t drive into a flood and get stuck (at least not right away). We asked to park at the fire station and walk to WAVY because we couldn’t get through. They graciously allowed us to park and offered to take us as far as they could in one of their trucks. Well we got about half a block and the truck stalled. Reinforcements came with a boat to get us to “shore” and we ended up walking the rest of the way.

So, “THANK YOU” to the firefighters at station one in Portsmouth. You guys and gals are awesome!

Still Rough

Jeremy Wheeler — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:23:17 +0000

The tide is going down, but remember we are falling from a high tide of 7.3 ft. Sewell’s point is down to 5.43″. Here is a pic from the Guinea area of Gloucester:

Thanks Angie. There are scattered showers out there, but the wind gusts aren’t too bad. They’ve been running about 30-35mph. Again next high tide will be between 5 and 7pm. Someone wanted me to mention that you should also try to avoid driving in water because the water is salty and will corrode the metal under your car along with your brakes. I know there are a lot of comments on here still about specific areas, but I think the better question is who hasn’t had flooding? I look forward to tomorrow.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

One More Big Tide!

Jeremy Wheeler — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:34:12 +0000

We are in high tide right now. We are getting reports from the Eastern Shore that the tide is the highest tide so far. Wachapreague is running about 7ft. That is near moderate tidal flooding, but the reports are saying that it is pretty bad. The tide will start going out in the next hour. Winds have not been as strong as yesterday. This will help the next low tide drop quite a bit. Midday will be the first time some folks get out and get to look around. Some people will not like what they find.

We’re getting lots of emails from the Sandbridge area that it is pretty bad. We will try to get Chopper 10 up later today to view the damage around the region. The visibilities and winds will have to improve of course. Here are some photos from yesterday’s storm. There will be a lot of them over the next couple of days:

This was from Chicks Beach. I believe near Alexander’s restaurant. There was some debris from the docks that washed toward the shore. Here is another picture from Virginia Beach where a tree fell on a house:

We’re going to see a lot more photos like this. You can view the slide show on this site. It’s on the main page near the live stream. Be careful this morning. The winds are not as strong, but the tides are up just a little below yesterday’s levels. Jon mentioned that Sewell’s Point is at 7.3ft and still creeping up. The tide has been lagging the forecast by about a half hour. So it will take another half hour for the tide to start retreating even though we just passed high tide.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler