Low Dark Clouds

You can see several scud clouds and on the right one possible funnel cloud.  You can’t tell whether there is rotation from the photo, but there’s no doubt that that cloud is low to the ground.  Here is another photo sent in from Randy in Virginia Beach.  His daughter took this photo of a possible funnel cloud.  Possibly from the same storm at a different time and angle.

Possible Funnel Cloud

Again, you can’t tell if there is rotation from the photo, but it definitely has some shape to it.  There were also some tornado warnings over North Carolina, but I haven’t seen any reports of damage from there.  The radar looked pretty impressive through midnight last night.

Satellite/Radar

We had about a half inch up to an inch of rain from the storms.  My weather watcher Greg in Currituck had the most with 1 inch.  Pam in Gloucester had a half inch.   Scott in Yorktown had 0.3 inches.

24 Hour Rain Totals

It was a nice soaking rain at my house, and I think many agree that we needed some rainfall.

Today we will steadily dry out and clear out.  We may see an isolated shower or two, but that should be mostly inland and south.

Today’s Forecast

Winds have been turning more out of the northeast.  So high temperatures will be in the upper 70s with a few warmer 80s inland.  By this evening the dry weather will take over and high pressure will build in.  So overnight low temps will drop to the low/mid 60s with only a few clouds.
Tomorrow looks great with a lot of sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to near 80.  It will be even drier and very comfortable.  The cold front may stall out to our south.  Sometimes this lets a weak area of low pressure form along it.  This will be something to watch over the next 2-4 days, as some of the models are hinting at it. The NAM model actually tries to bring some rain back into the area on Friday while the GFS model keeps us dry.  We’ll monitor the next couple of model runs to see which way things trend.

Finally, tropical depression 2 now has a better shot at becoming tropical storm Barry in the next 24 hours.  It is over the Bay of Campeche right now, and it has strengthened a little bit.  If it becomes a tropical storm then it may bring some gusty winds to Veracruz Mexico, but it shouldn’t be destructive.   Heavy rain is likely for that region regardless of the winds.

Tropical Depression 2

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Satellite/Radar

There were a lot of showers and storms to our west along an area of low pressure over Tennessee.  These were moving quickly to the east.  So the chance for rain has increased quite a bit since yesterday due to these increasing factors.  High temperatures will be in the mid 80s today and it will be soupy.  The cold front will stay north of our region this afternoon.

Today’s Forecast

Rain chances will increase to 50% by noon, and 70% thr0ugh the afternoon.  By tonight the front will start moving through.  Also, the energy from the storms over Tennessee will be arriving.  So there will be another bout of heavy rain tonight as those two features coincide.  Probably between 9pm and 1am.  That is when our Future Trak model brings it in.

Future Trak (Midnight)

By tomorrow things will change.  The front will be mostly through the region, but it may linger into northeast North Carolina.  Winds will turn northeast and will run about 10-15mph.  Temps will start in the low 70s, but will only top off in the upper 70s with a few 80s over North Carolina.  We’ll see some scattered showers in the morning and midday.  Most of that will dissipate by the afternoon.  A few showers and storms may linger over North Carolina though closer to that front.

Tomorrow’s Forecast

After that we are looking at some great weather for Thursday and Friday.  Highs will be in the low 80s and humidity will be low as well.  I’m still going for a dry forecast into next weekend.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Lows mostly in the 60s.

In the tropics there is one lone entity at this time.  Tropical depression 2 formed yesterday near the coast of Belize.  It’s funny because NHC had it as a 30% chance for formation in the morning.  So I didn’t mention it.  Then all of a sudden it became a depression.  It is now moving over land to the west.  It may grind down into nothingness today. The track is a little farther south.  So it looks like it will stay over land for a longer period of time.   If it survives then it will probably keep moving west as a depression.  It will likely die out over the higher elevations of central Mexico.

Tropical Depression 2

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Tropical Depression # 2

The storm should weaken a bit as it moves over Belize, Guatemala and Mexico later tonight and early Tuesday. However, the depression may strengthen again as it moves over the Bay of Campeche where the water is very warm. If Tropical Depression #2 strengthens while over water and becomes a Tropical Storm, the next name on the list would be Barry. If this storm becomes Barry, it shouldn’t remain as a tropical storm for very long considering it will likely move back over Mexico early Thursday. Main threats with this storm will be heavy rain and possible tropical storm force winds across Belize, Guatemala and Mexico. Rainfall totals could range anywhere from 2-5 inches of rain.

***Tropical Depression # 2 will NOT affect our weather at all. Jeremy wrote a blog earlier this morning with more details on our local weather.

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

Triplets

1 niece and 2 nephews.  My sister and brother-in-law will have their hands full for a while.  So that was the main motivation for going home.  The family is doing well, and all are in good health.  Another side item that was motivation for going home was this:

Chicago Pizza

This is Chicago style deep-dish pizza.  They have several layers of cheese and other ingredients, but the sauce layer is on top.  I didn’t used to be a big fan when I was young, but I’ve learned to appreciate the saucy pie over the last couple of years.  Along with that there were other sights to see.  The zoo in Norfolk is nice, but I grew up with Brookfield Zoo in Chicago.  This has some of the most amazing displays of animals that I’ve ever seen.  One exhibit is called tropical world.  It’s been open for over 20 years, but it is still amazing.  It is an indoor area of 3 huge rooms probably the size of a football field.  It has an exhibit from South America, Asia, and Africa.  These are quasi-open rooms with animals all around you. There is even one room where you walk under an indoor waterfall.

Tropical World

They also have a dolphin show that is pretty good as well.  We sat in the front row which is called the splash zone. Needless to say…I got soaked.

Dolphin Show

There are a lot more photos, but I just wanted to give you an idea of where I was.  It was a very busy time, and I think I am still a bit worn out.

So with that said, let’s get to the weather….We started today with some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Satellite/Radar

This was created by a small pocket of energy in the mid levels, as well as a nearby windshift line.  These features will stick around today.  So scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will come and go.  It won’t rain the whole way straight through, but heavy rain is possible in a few areas.

Today’s Weather

Tomorrow it looked like there would be an even higher chance for rain, but the models have backed off a bit.  So scattered showers and storms are still possible, but I think we’ll see a little more sunshine than today.  Also, I think there will be more rain in the afternoon than the am unlike today.  The cold front will finally move through by early Wednesday morning.  However, a few showers will be possible north of the front.  This will all push south of here by Thursday.  So we should see some nice weather going into next weekend with lower humidity and mild temperatures.

Kudos to the weather team for covering the severe storms while I was gone.  It’s good to be back.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Changes on the Way!

Notice there is a stationary front to our northwest. This boundary will stay to our north on Monday. A few pockets of upper-level energy will move from west to east across Virginia tomorrow. We will likely see highs in the mid 80s with lots of moisture in place to the south of that front. Therefore, scattered showers and storms will be possible on and off throughout the day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday Rain Chances

Our Future Trak model has a few showers possible around 7 AM, with most of the rain to our west. So besides the normal traffic, the morning commute shouldn’t be too bad tomorrow.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Slightly better chances for rain by 5 PM.

Future Trak at 5 PM

It will not rain all day in one location. Like I mentioned before, the activity will be very scattered. Some folks may see rain while others miss out.

Rain chances increase even more on Tuesday as our next cold front pushes into Hampton Roads late Tuesday into Wednesday (this is the same front to the west of Minneapolis at the beginning of the blog). Some of the computer models have the rain continuing into Wednesday morning before drying out Wednesday afternoon.  This cold front will cool us down somewhat by the middle of the week. Humidity levels will be going down by the middle of the week too.

Temperature Trend

Hope you all have a great start to the work week. Keep the umbrella with you just in case over the next few days.

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

430 Total Storm Reports in this view!

Some wind gusts from yesterday: 66mph at Fort Eustis, 64mph from the Newport News Airport, and 61mph from Jennette’s Pier near Nags Head. On our website we have several pictures of damage from the Peninsula.

Starting today, you probably noticed how the humidity has dropped. A cooler and drier airmass from Canada has made a rare, but strong push across Hampton Roads to give us a break from that early season heat and humidity.

Sunshine for the Weekend

The pattern today will keep a fairly strong northwest wind at 10-15mph. This will keep our highs near 76 this afternoon. Tonight the wind will become calm and we will likely see lows in the upper 50s inland and near 60 by the water. Tomorrow the warming process will begin, but with a limited west wind we should still see highs below normal and near 81 in the afternoon. That area of high pressure will also be in control for the weekend which will keep us sunny and dry until early next week.

Warmer on Father’s Day

Father’s Day will be the warmest day this weekend with a high near 88. Some afternoon clouds are also possible on Sunday as a weak storm system gets closer to Tidewater. This may bring us rain by Monday afternoon.

Enjoy a break from the humidity this weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

Mod. Risk for Hampton Roads Cities.

We usually do not see too many moderate risk’s every year, usually 3-4 days, and that’s it. We need to stay Sky Aware this afternoon and especially when we could see these storms develop.

Threat Index

Heavy rain is likely, but the High Wind will be the biggest threat for tonight. The risk for large hail (1″/Golf Ball) is also possible with these storms. The tornado risk is low, but still present. The timing for these storms will still be late today, and close to sunset.

Future Trak & 6pm

Future Trak @ 7pm

You can see hour-by-hour on what our Future Trak is thinking for tonight. We should see the development of these storms early towards Richmond. They could be moving at 40 and maybe up to 50mph to the East, similar to the line of storms this morning. This will keep the threat for damaging wind gusts high. Some have asked me if these storms are pushing in around 8pm will they be weaker since peak heating is done? Usually I would say yes, but since there is already so much heat/humidity available in the atmosphere they already have plenty of fuel to stay strong.

The mid levels of the atmosphere also look promising for severe weather. There is plenty of CAPE (Lift), Low CIN (Opposite force of CAPE), and we should also be able to reach the Convective Temperature of 93 degrees today. Conv. T is how warm we need to be to erase all of the CIN and allow the air to freely rise (creating clouds and storms). The shear should be high today for the development of storms, but the helicity and directional shear are lower which should help to inhibit a tornado outbreak. Isolated Tornadoes are still possible.

Stay sky aware this afternoon and evening. Meteorologist Tiffany Savona and Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be in this evening to track the storms.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

Wednesday Record Highs

Remember these are the only locations that have climate data. With highs in the lower 90s, I think the records will be safe today. One of the reasons why temperatures are going to be so high today is due to the location of a stationary front to our north.

Today/Tonight Forecast

This front causes the air to south of this boundary to be compressed. Compression results in warming. The average high temperature is 83° today, so we should be a good 10 degrees hotter than that. This boundary should spark off showers and thunderstorms to our north. Storm motion is determined by the upper-level wind pattern. Upper level winds are blowing from northwest to the southeast, so storms will develop and move in that direction. That means we could see a few showers and storms move into Hampton Roads later today and tonight.

Future Trak at 9 PM

Midday Update: Future Trak has some of the storms moving in after 3 PM this afternoon. Any storm that develops today could become strong with damaging winds as the main threat.

Future Trak at Midnight

The best chance for rain will be from Norfolk and points to the north and northwest.

Rain Chances Tonight

Thursday is shaping up to be an active day across Hampton Roads. First off…we could see record breaking heat across the region. The record high temperature in Norfolk tomorrow is 96° and we are forecasting a high temperature of 97°. We are also tracking a powerful storm system that will bring a cold front closer to us by the late afternoon and early evening hours. The ingredients are coming together for a good chance for severe weather. There will be plenty of instability, moisture and energy to work with. The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted our area for the potential of severe weather on Thursday.

Thursday’s Severe Weather Risk

There is a moderate or enhanced risk for the Peninsula, Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and Eastern Shore. These areas will be closer to that area of low pressure. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, but isolated tornadoes are not out of the question. Stay tuned to WAVY TV 10 and wavy.com for the latest.

Remember to stay safe in the heat and to drink plenty of water!

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

Severe Storm in Gates County

This same storm quickly developed a hook echo, a feature that can indicate possible tornado development. This storm had strong rotation as it moved over Corapeake and the Great Dismal Swamp. The tornado warning continued as the storm moved into Chesapeake and Virginia Beach. The rotation weakened once this storm moved out of Chesapeake and into Virginia Beach. We received lots of storm photos of weird looking clouds. I did look through a number of the photos and I believe this is one of the only photos that shows a possible tornado since it looks like the funnel is in contact with the ground. But there is still some question to whether it touched down because the trees block the view. This picture was sent to us by Rebecca Greene in Gates County looking toward Corapeake.

Possible Tornado in Gates County

Heavy rain became an issue as well since we saw several rounds of showers and storms throughout the day. Plus the ground has been saturated due to Andrea, so any extra rain would just run-off and cause problems. Check out these 24-hour rain totals.

24-hour Rain Totals

Yesterday, Suffolk was the winner with just over 5 inches of rain. Places near Corapeake saw around 4 inches. Street flooding was reported across parts of Chesapeake. The Triple Decker Bridge in Chesapeake had to close due to flooding as well. Ironically, the heaviest rain fell across the areas that missed out on the rain last week from Andrea.

So for today….we started off with a few showers across the region.

Satellite/Radar – 8:50AM

Notice the clearing back towards Lynchburg. Drier air is working its way into the western half of the state. That is why the clouds are breaking up. That drier air is headed our way.

Future Trak at Noon

A wind shift line will move closer to us around midday. This boundary may spark off a few isolated showers and storms out ahead of it, but most of us should remain dry. Once this boundary passes us by this afternoon, winds will shift more out of the west, bringing in slightly drier air. Rain chances will be going away and the humidity will go down just a touch. Highs will be in the mid 80s this afternoon. Get ready to sizzle tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s!

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

Warm & Humid

The setup for this Monday is watching an area of low pressure track across the northern states. This will keep a strong south wind today and keep our temperatures and humidity high. As the cold front and center of energy in the atmosphere move in we also have a chance for seeing some strong thunderstorms this evening.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather out West

The risk for strong storms is mostly for Richmond and Raleigh, but Williamsburg, Gloucester and the Northern Neck are part of the slight risk.

Heavy Rain/Flooding Risk Today

Flash Flood Watch

All of us are under a flash flood watch for today until midnight tonight. That is why I have us in a higher risk for Heavy Rain/Flooding today. The timing for these storms should be early afternoon towards rush hour this evening across the Hampton Roads cities.

Future Trak @ 4pm

This model brings in the rain at or before 4pm. I have seen a few models bring in the rain around 6pm. The timing should be somewhere in that window of 4-6pm for the southside cities. 2-5pm for the Peninsula, and 5-8pm for the Outer Banks and Eastern Shore. Rainfall estimates are 1-2″ for today and tonight. Most of the rain will move out by tomorrow morning. I have us seeing some light rain tomorrow afternoon, but the chances are around 30%.

Wednesday will be a dry day, but the highs will be near 91° and the humidity will be stifling.

Stay cool and dry today!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson