Weather

Really? A Thanksgiving Blog??

November 27th, 2014 at 6:37 am by under Weather

Yep!  Normally I would take the holiday off and give my typing hands a break for Thanksgiving.  But NO!  I’m toughing it out for the sake of weather.  Ok, I’m being dramatic, but it’s sorta true.  For this Thanksgiving we are looking at some wet weather in the region.  Scattered showers will be falling today.   It won’t be like yesterday with the heavy rain and gusty winds, but rain is in the forecast.  This is coming from a weak disturbance that is riding out of the Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

As the system moves east it will encounter warmer temperatures.   So a lot of the region will see scattered rain showers.

Travel Forecast

Travel Forecast

There will also be scattered snow showers over the Appalachians, but it shouldn’t be as heavy as yesterday.  While the surface temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s in our region, the temperatures aloft will be well below freezing.  The freezing level will be at about 2-3,000 ft.

Wintry Mix Explained

Wintry Mix Explained

So there will be snow in the mid-upper levels, but it is likely going to melt as it travels through the bottom 3,000ft.  Sometimes though, if the precipitation gets heavy, then the cold air can get dragged down to the surface.  This is possible today.  So that will allow for some sleet (partially melted snow) and wet snowflakes to mix in with the rain at times.  With temperatures above freezing it should all melt.  But don’t be surprised if you head outside and see a little brief snow.  This all pushes out by tonight. Lows will drop to the 30s.  Then we’ll see dry weather for the rest of the weekend.  It will be chilly tomorrow. Highs will be in the low 40s.  Then we’ll be in the 50s on Saturday and 60s on Sunday.

Hope you have a nice holiday.  Safe travels!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Wednesday Afternoon Weather Update

November 26th, 2014 at 2:23 pm by under Weather

Are you flying or driving out of town today? Is your family coming in to town? Here is an update for our area.

Future Trak @ 6pm

Future Trak @ 6pm

Remember, there will be icy roads around DC and anywhere west of Charlottesville tonight as temperatures go below freezing.

Road Conditions Links:

Travel safe and have a Happy Thanksgiving! Thanksgiving_3

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Nor’easter Hurts Travel!

November 26th, 2014 at 8:33 am by under Weather

It’s a rough go this morning.  Whether you’re a commuter or a traveler , you are going to have to take it slow today.  We’ve had widespread rain since the overnight.

Local Satellite/Radar

Local Satellite/Radar

The rain has been heavy at times. So far we’ve picked up about a half inch to an inch.  The rain is continuing to add up.  The reason we have this rain is due to an area of low pressure that is creeping north along a stationary front.  This is happening offshore.   The system is becoming a weak nor’easter.

Nor'easter Developing

Nor’easter Developing

There is a lot of moisture being thrown back to the west.  This moist air mass is hitting a colder air mass to our west. This is creating snow showers over the Appalachians already.  Snow will be a problem for folks traveling to the west or the north.  Anyone crossing the regional mountains will have to be very careful today.  Winter storm warnings affect a large area.  Some locations will see 3-6″.

Winter Storm Warnings/Advisories

Winter Storm Warnings/Advisories

Our local area will be too warm for snow today, but the rain will plague anyone driving across the region.

Travel Forecast

Travel Forecast

Actually along the entire east coast there will be problems with travel.  There will also be some snow showers from Minneapolis down to St. Louis.
The southwestern U.S. is the place to be today.

U.S. Travel Today

U.S. Travel Today

Fur us, the rain will be widespread through the mid afternoon.  Between 3-5pm the showers will become more scattered.  We aren’t expecting thunderstorms, but we will likely see 2-3″ of rain.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

Ponding on roads will be very common as well as some localized flooding.  This will especially be a problem around tidal areas.  While the tidal flooding isn’t expected to be too bad (mostly nuisance), the problem is a newly common one.  When the tide comes up during big rain events, the rain doesn’t drain very well.  So you get minor tidal flooding even when nuisance is forecast.  This will mostly be along the southern Chesapeake Bay.  Here is the tidal forecast for Sewell’s Point.

Tide Forecast

Tide Forecast

This tidal rise of about 1-1.5 ft above normal will come around the midday hours.

Rain will finally come to an end by this evening.  Unfortunately, another system will impact the area tomorrow.  The nor’easter will be long gone, but a weak upper level disturbance and a small push of colder air will move into the region.  Scattered rain showers are expected from the late morning through the mid afternoon.

Future Trak (Noon Tomorrow)

Future Trak (Noon Tomorrow)

The precipitation should be light.  Keep in mind that it will be below freezing up just a couple thousand feet while temps will be in the low-mid 40s at the surface.  So I would expect some wet snowflakes and sleet pellets mixing in with the light rain showers.  Nothing should stick though as the surface will be too warm.  We should dry up by the time we get to Thanksgiving dinner.

After that we’ll have a nice dry period.  It will be cold and dry for Black Friday.  Lows will be in the 30s and highs in the 40s.  Then we’ll warm up for the weekend.  Highs will be in the 50s on Saturday and 60s on Sunday.  At least folks that are traveling will have some nice weather this weekend.  It will be nice for shopping and decorating as well.

Good luck in your travels out there.  Try to allow plenty of time to reach your destination.  Also, check your flights and your routes.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Holiday Travel Mess Ahead

November 25th, 2014 at 8:50 am by under Weather

The weather is going to be pretty tough for travelers over the next couple of days.  If you are driving out of town or have a loved one coming in, then you will want to continue to monitor the weather.  We’ve already had scattered showers out there today.  This is from a lot of moisture pooling in ahead of a cold front.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The cold front is closing in from the west.  We started with a very warm and humid morning. Temps were mostly in the 60s.  As the front passes the winds will turn from southwest to out of the northeast.  This will drop temperatures to the 50s this afternoon. We’ll be in the low 50s by the evening.  The scattered showers will continue on and off through the afternoon.

Today"s Forecast

Today”s Forecast

The front will push offshore through the evening. However, it is forecast to stall out over the ocean.  An area of low pressure will form along the front and move northward tomorrow.  This will push the moisture back to the west.  So rain is likely for most of the day and most of the region.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Rain will be heavy at times.  We are looking about about 1-2 inches of rain for our region with higher amounts possible.  If you are traveling south, west, or north you’ll hit at least some rain.

Regional Travel Map

Regional Travel Map

This will be there in the early morning.  So don’t expect to head out early to beat the weather.  It should taper off later in the day as the low begins to move away.  Snow is possible over the Appalachians tomorrow.  So keep that in mind if you are going to travel out that way.  This will impact cities like Blacksburg, Charlottesville, and Staunton.

We’ll dry things out a bit by tomorrow night.  However, another pocket of moisture and an upper level disturbance will move through Thursday morning.  This will bring us some scattered showers.  It’s possible that sleet pellets and/or wet snowflakes will mix in with the rain.  Even if that happens though, nothing should stick to the ground.  Temps will be above freezing.  According to the National Weather Service, there have only be 3 Thanksgivings with snow.  The latest one was in 1912 with 0.5″ of snow on the ground.

We will dry out by Thursday evening.  Highs will be in the 40s.  We’ll be dry and chilly on Friday for the big sales.  Highs will be in the 40s.  At least we’ll be dry and warmer over the weekend.  So that let of the journey will be good for travel.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Record Heat, Then… A Wintry Mix?

November 24th, 2014 at 8:35 am by under Weather

I’ll admit…this week will be very interesting and kind of fun to forecast.  However, this active weather could mean big problems for travelers.  Especially on Wednesday.  Let’s start with today, and then I’ll get to the upcoming holiday.

Overnight we had some heavy rain along with a warm front moving through the region.

Radar From Last Night

Radar From Last Night

The rain pushed out by 5am.  We picked up about 0.5″-0.75″ of rain.  Winds gusted up to 30mph as the front moved through, but they settled a little around sunrise.  We are in the warm zone today as the warm front is to our north and the cold front is back to the west.

Warm Zone

Warm Zone

The warmth is also heading up to western New York.  So between that and some rain showers, they are expecting lots of melting in that region.  This will cause flooding for many residents that had the recent heavy snow.  Meanwhile there is some snow falling over parts of the Midwest.

Locally today, we’ll see partly to mostly cloudy skies and a few rain showers.  The chance for rain is about 30% which is pretty hit or miss.  We may even see some isolated thunderstorms.  We have already cleared out a bit, and temperatures started in the upper 60s to near 70 this morning.  With the southerly winds at 10-20mph and a few higher gusts we’ll manage to rise to near 80 degrees today.  We’ll even see some low 80s in the region.  The record high for Norfolk is 78 degrees (1983).  The high temperature record in Elizabeth City is 77 degrees (also in 1983).  Wallops Island’s record is easy to break.  They had 67 degrees in 1979.  All of these records are likely to fall today.

Monday Record HIghs

Monday Record HIghs

By tomorrow a cold front will move into the region, and will begin to cool things down.  We’ll see highs in the low/mid 60s with a mix of sun and clouds.  A few showers are possible, but the chance is fairly low.

As we get into Wednesday, the cold front will stall offshore.  (Sound familiar).  An area of low pressure will form along the front and move northward.  Deep moisture will try to push west into the the cooler air mass in the region.  This will condense a lot of the moisture right over us.  So we’ll see widespread rain in the region.  We could easily see 1-2 inches of rain.  Some models turn this moisture into a wintry mix by the evening.   Some also have a band of snow from Charlottesville northeast up through D.C. to New York.  Even if it were just heavy rain, then that alone would cause a lot of problems for travelers on Wednesday.  If we throw in a wintry mix, then this will multiply those problems.

Possible Wintry Mix Wednesday

Possible Wintry Mix Wednesday

In the viewing area, the precipitation could become a brief wintry mix from Gloucester county northward.  It’s still a bit early to refine the details, but that’s what some models are showing for Wednesday evening.  The models do agree that Thanksgiving will be cold and dry.  Highs will be in the 40s with lows in the 30s.  It will stay cold on Black Friday with lows in the 30s and highs in the 40s again.  Things look dry for that day.  So shoppers should be able to camp out in some nice warm gear before the big sales.  Stay tuned for updates to all of this.  The forecast will be tricky at times.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Storms Possible Tonight, Record Heat on Monday

November 23rd, 2014 at 9:12 pm by under Weather

Most of us have just seen scattered light rain so far this evening. Rain should become more widespread and heavier as we get closer to midnight tonight. I am tracking a warm front that will continue to lift northward through Hampton Roads overnight. Once the warm front moves through, warm, moist air will move in and the winds will really pick up. So temperatures will be rising into the 60s overnight instead of falling. Winds will increase out of the south and southeast at 20-30mph with gusts up to 40mph along the coast. Inland areas can expect sustained winds between 15-25mph with gusts up to 30mph.

Wind Forecast

Wind Forecast

The best dynamics with this storm system will move in around 12-2 AM, so if we are going to see any storms, that will be the small window when storms can develop. There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms overnight just south of the warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Southside and North Carolina in a marginal risk for severe weather and the Outer Banks in a slight risk for severe weather.

Severe Weather Risk

Severe Weather Risk

This means that the atmosphere will be a little bit more favorable for severe weather across the Outer Banks. Temperatures and dew point readings will be higher there since the warm front will move through these areas first. If any storms develop, heavy rain, gusty winds and an isolated tornado will be possible. Notice the storms developing in North Carolina by 1 AM Monday morning.

Future Trak at 1 AM

Future Trak at 1 AM Monday

Heaviest rain should move offshore by 3 AM. There may be a few showers around 7 AM, but most of the rain will have tapered off by then. Fog will likely develop overnight and become widespread by Monday morning, so watch out for reduced visibilities.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Future Trak at 7 AM

It will be a very warm and muggy morning as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s by 7 AM.  Near record heat is possible Monday afternoon as highs climb into the mid to upper 70s. Here are the current record highs for each climate site in our region.

Monday Record HIghs

Monday Record Highs

After the near record heat expected tomorrow, our focus shifts to the next coastal system that will impact holiday travel on Wednesday. Rain and wind is likely all day on Wednesday. A wintry mix will be possible for our northern and inland counties Wednesday night. Here is a preview of our long-term Future Trak model.

Future Trak at 8 PM Weds

Future Trak at 8 PM Weds

Keep in mind that this forecast WILL change over the next few days. Right now, we are certain that Wednesday will be a messy travel day across our area. Travel may even be difficult farther north toward Richmond, DC and into New England. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Strong Thunderstorms Possible Tonight, Also Watching Wednesday

November 23rd, 2014 at 11:21 am by under Weather

Here is your mid morning video update:

A few highlights from the video:

Storm Risk: Possible Hail, Damaging Wind Gusts and Tornadoes tonight.

Storm Risk: Possible Hail, Damaging Wind Gusts and Tornadoes tonight.

Warming Up Tonight, Strong Storms Possible

Warming Up Tonight, Strong Storms Possible

Future Trak Snow (Subject To Change)

Future Trak Snow (Subject To Change)

Stay tuned for updates!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 


Rainy/Stormy Sunday Night

November 22nd, 2014 at 10:02 pm by under Weather

It was a cold night for the Grand Illumination in Norfolk and Light Up The Town in Virginia Beach. Check out the view of the lights out of Tower Cam 10 and our Virginia Beach Town Center webcam!

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Virginia Beach Town Center

Virginia Beach Town Center

With a mostly clear sky overnight, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s by Sunday morning. Sunday will be a day of change across the region. Sunday morning will be cold and dry and Sunday night will be warm and wet. Rain chances go up by the late afternoon, so Sunday will not be a wash-out. Moisture levels will be on the rise tomorrow, so clouds will be increasing throughout the day. It will take a little while to moisten up the atmosphere so rain shouldn’t develop until late in the day. North Carolina and the Southside could see rain anytime after 3 PM. Rain becomes more widespread by the dinner hour. Here is what our Future Trak model shows by 6 PM.

Future Trak at 6 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 6 PM Sunday

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Outer Banks and Mainland Dare County in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow.

Sunday Storm Risk

Sunday Storm Risk

The rest of Virginia and North Carolina could still see isolated thunderstorms, but the chance is higher for stronger storms across the Outer Banks and down through South Carolina and Georgia. The warm front will push through the Outer Banks a little bit earlier in the day, so moisture values will be higher there. Wind shear will be decent, which is when winds change speed and direction with height in the atmosphere. So storms will be able to rotate, that is IF they get going. We will have a lot of clouds most of the day and the sun sets at 4:51 PM. I think there will be a small window for the potential for strong storms across the Outer Banks. Any instability will be going down once the sun sets, which is early now. As the night wears on, the potential for severe weather will go down and the potential for heavy rain will go up as warm, moist air moves into the region. The rain gets even heavier late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Future Trak at 3 AM Monday

Future Trak at 3 AM Monday

Rain should taper off early Monday morning, but it will be a foggy, windy and warm morning with temperatures in the 60s. Highs Monday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 70s, so we will be close to record levels once again!

Tune into WAVY News 10 at 11 for an updated forecast. Plus Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will be on WAVY News 10 from 6-8 AM Sunday morning with an update on the timing of the rain.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


A Developing Drought, Relief Coming

November 22nd, 2014 at 9:23 am by under Weather

November has been a dry month for Hampton Roads. Below are a few rain totals from each area:

  • Southside: 0.75″
  • Peninsula: 0.96″
  • OBX: 0.48″
  • NE NC: 0.87″
  • E. Shore: 1.73″
  • Middle Peninsula: 1.13″

As you see, most areas are still below one inch of rain for November. October was also dry for us, this is helping to form a minor drought for our area.

Drought Update

Drought Update

Being “Abnormally Dry” isn’t a major cause of concern. What is more interesting is to see what happens over the next few weeks. If we stay dry, this winter will be hard on our plants and trees since they will have a lack of moisture.

We could see some rain tomorrow with the arrival of a warm front.

Future Trak Saturday Afternoon

Future Trak Sunday Afternoon

We could see a few scattered showers as early as 3pm tomorrow as warmer temperatures start to move in from the south. More rain is likely into the evening. The storm prediction center has areas in North Carolina in a slight risk for severe weather. Right now it looks like the timing for thunderstorms will be after sunset Sunday. Computer models are giving us around 1 inch of rain.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving and travel around the holiday, another storm system may bring us rain, and give D.C. a chance for snow.

Future Trak Wednesday

Future Trak Wednesday

Future Trak does bring in a chance for a mixture on Wednesday evening. Right now it is still questionable to see if this can happen. The wind would be northeasterly, so with that fetch going over 50 degree water, the snow chances look slim to our north, and especially low for our area.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

 


Warmer Weather Will Make A Comeback!

November 21st, 2014 at 8:20 am by under Weather

While we warmed up a bit yesterday, we knew it was temporary.  Highs got into the upper 50s with sunshine and southwest winds.  Today we’re headed back to the cold.  At least for a short stint.

Cold Front In The Region

Cold Front In The Region

A cold front has already cleared the region.  It shifted the winds in the overnight, but there wasn’t any precipitation along the boundary.  Winds will be northwest today behind the front. They will run at 10-15mph with gusts up to 20mph.  High pressure is building into the region.  So we’ll have a lot of sunshine.  But it will be cold sunshine.  Highs will only be in the low 40s with some mid 40s over North Carolina.  Tonight as the high builds in stronger, we’ll lighten the winds.  Lows will drop to the 20s with some 30s near the shore.  Then tomorrow we’ll have a light southerly wind.  So highs will rise to the upper 40s. Skies will stay sunny.   We are really going to warm up after that.  On Sunday we’ll see highs in the low 60s.  Rain will move-in, but it may not arrive until the evening.  Then we’ll see scattered rain showers on Monday with highs in the 70s.  There will probably be some thunderstorms near the coast.  Especially over coastal North Carolina.

We won’t cool down much on Tuesday.  We’ll see highs in the 60s with a few more showers.  On Wednesday things could get interesting.  Emphasis on Could.  A colder surge of air is going to move into the region.  Also an upper level disturbance will push into the area.  Some moisture will linger behind a slow moving cold front.  So we could see some cold rain late Wednesday.  Perhaps ending as a brief Wintry mix.  The main part of the upper level disturbance is expected to move through on Thursday….Thanksgiving.  If the moisture is there, then we may see a little wintry mix or maybe even some snowflakes.  At this time it looks like the area will be mostly dry, but some models hint at some pockets of moisture.  This is still far out.  So I’m not putting my stamp on that.

In the Great Lakes area there is a new problem that will be developing.  Warmer temperatures are expected over the next few days.  So all of the snow that is there in western New York could melt soon and cause flooding.  When you have several feet of snow it could potentially melt down to several inches of water.  This will be a developing story into next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler