Weather

From Spring To Winter In 24 Hours

March 3rd, 2015 at 9:05 pm by under Weather

We have a little bit of everything in the forecast over the next few days. From spring to winter in just a 24-hour period. First, I’m tracking the chance for rain overnight. Another batch of rain should move in as warmer air moves in from the southwest behind a warm front. Our Future Trak has been consistent on bringing the rain in just before midnight.

Future Trak at 12 AM

Future Trak at 12 AM

Rain will quickly move out and temperatures will continue to rise overnight. Patchy fog may develop in some areas as temperatures rise into the upper 40s/lower 50s early Wednesday morning. Give the kids a light jacket tomorrow instead of the heavy winter coat. It will feel more like spring tomorrow afternoon with highs around 70° across the Southside and North Carolina and highs in the 60s from the Peninsula northward. A great day to grab lunch outside or to take a walk during your lunch break. Just watch out for those breezy southwest winds blowing at 15-20mph.

Wednesday Temperatures

Wednesday Temperatures

A strong cold front will slowly move through Hampton Roads from north to south Wednesday evening. Temperatures will drop a good bit once the front moves through, but the really cold air will lag behind the front. The upper level winds are going to be running parallel to the cold front, which is going to slow its movement and slow the arrival of the cold air. Rain will develop behind the front and slowly fill in across Virginia and North Carolina Wednesday night. The precipitation at this point will fall in the form as rain since temperatures will still be in the upper 30s and lower 40s at 7 AM Thursday.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Future Trak at 7 AM Thursday

As colder air moves in behind the front, the rain will change over to a mix of wet snow and sleet (purple area on Future Trak) by 3 PM. Notice that rain is still falling across North Carolina and areas just north of the state line. The mix has moved south into the Peninsula and Southside. The Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and Eastern Shore will see the mix change over to ALL snow. These areas have the best chances for seeing accumulating snow.

Future Trak  at 3 PM Thursday

Future Trak at 3 PM Thursday

Here are some key things to remember. The snow will probably melt once it hits the wet roads and sidewalks. If we do see any accumulations, it would likely be on grassy areas, decks and cars. Once again the chance for rain and sleet will really cut down on snow totals. It seems like most computer models are coming in with a warmer and drier solution. If this trend continues, then we may need to bring snow totals down even more. However, there are still some models that are wetter and colder and we can’t discount them just yet. With that in mind, here is my snow totals forecast. I’m leaning toward the warmer and drier solutions based on the set-up of this storm system. I just don’t think the cold air is going to be here in time to really allow the snow to accumulate.

Thursday Snow Forecast

Thursday Snow Forecast

Bottom line: This is not going to be a big storm for us, but it will impact your Thursday evening commute. If we see more sleet, then we could see some minor ice accumulation. Right now it looks like the sleet would be mixing in with rain and wet snow. The wintry mix will taper off Thursday night. Any standing water or slush will freeze Thursday night into Friday morning because temperatures will drop into the 20s. So expect some slick spots early Friday morning, especially on bridges and overpasses. Friday will be dry with highs in the lower 30s.

Snow totals will change over the next 24 hours, so stay tuned! I will have more on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Huge Warmup, Then More Wintry Mix

March 3rd, 2015 at 8:36 am by under Weather

Temperatures are getting ready to go on a huge roller coaster ride over the next few days.  We’ll be basking in the warm 60s & 70s tomorrow, and then we’ll see a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow on Thursday.

Today we started with quiet weather.  I can’t believe I just typed that….  Quiet weather.  There was no fog, and we only had clouds in the region.  However, some showers were forming off to our west.  Temps started in the upper 20s to low 30s.  We will stay in the cool sector today.  There is a warm front closing-in from the west, but it won’t arrive until this evening.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll see overrunning precipitation today in the form of some scattered rain showers.  There could be a few sleet pellets, but there shouldn’t be too much of that.  High temps will rise to the upper 30s to low 40s.  We’ll see some mid-upper 40s over northeast North Carolina. The rain showers will pick up a bit towards the evening.  This will make for a wet commute for some folks.  The showers will continue overnight, but should taper off late.  Temps will drop a degree or two this evening. Then they will rise overnight.  We’ll likely start tomorrow morning near 50 degrees.  Since we’ll be in the warm sector tomorrow, we’ll probably clear out a bit.  Between the partly cloudy skies and southwesterly winds (10-20mph), we’ll get the temperatures going up to the upper 60s to near 70.  That won’t be a record, but it will be well above the average high of 54 degrees.  The models don’t show too much rain tomorrow except for some scattered showers in the afternoon. The rain will likely increase in the evening.  This rain will continue on and off into Thursday morning.  By Thursday afternoon the cold front will move into North Carolina.  Temperatures will keep dropping behind the front.  This will create a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow in Hampton Roads with rain changing to snow north of Hampton Roads.

Future Trak (3pm Thur.)

Future Trak (3pm Thur.)

I mentioned yesterday that this will be a race between the cold air and the dry air.  Between 3 and 5pm it looks like the dry air will quickly sink south.  So watch what our model does with the snow line by 5pm:

Future Trak (5pm Thur.)

Future Trak (5pm Thur.)

The snow line shrinks while the wintry mix area (purple) grows slightly.  This seems like a very reasonable solution.  This would greatly limit the snow accumulations in Hampton Roads.  However, several sources (including HPC/NOAA) is suggesting that accumulations will be possible or even likely between the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, And Accomack county.  Now there is still some snow on the ground in places.  This will likely melt over the next 48 hours.  Especially on Wednesday.  The warmup should help to warm the ground temperatures a bit.  So we may see the bulk of accumulations stick to grassy surfaces and not so much to the roads.  However, this will depend on how much of the leftover snow melts.  It could stop the ground from warming up much, even if it doesn’t melt until Wednesday night.  As per usual, the forecast may change.  So stay tuned!

We’ll be cold and dry on Friday with highs in the low 30s.  Then we’ll warm up over the weekend.  There will be an offshore low to our south over the weekend.  This could throw a few showers our way late Saturday into Sunday.  It’s a low chance, but if you look at the recent weather pattern, then we can’t make it 3 or 4 days without some type of precipitation moving into the area.  Hopefully, we’ll get a drier pattern soon.  If this keeps up, then we could be looking at some flooding during the Spring.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Can’t Catch A Break!

March 2nd, 2015 at 7:48 am by under Weather

I was hoping to come in this morning and deal with some patchy fog.  Then the forecast changed, and we had widespread fog with some scattered showers.  Oyy!  No rest for the weary!

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona put out a nice blog last night on the February temperatures, and how it was the 3rd coldest February on record.  I would have left it at that, but I wanted to do an update to the forecast for today.  Since yesterday the forecast had changed.  For starters, there was some fog in the forecast from last night, but the fog became widespread and heavy in many places.  So there were even dense fog advisories early today.  Along with the fog, there were also some scattered rain showers.  This had increased from an outside chance to scattered showers.

Scattered Showers This Morning

Scattered Showers This Morning

The showers will be around this morning with even a few sleet pellets.  Yep!  The good news is that things will improve this afternoon.  We’ll go to partly cloudy skies by the early afternoon.  Temps will rise to the mid 40s by midday.  Then a cold front will move through and slowly drop temperatures.  We’ll be in the upper 30s by the late afternoon-early evening.  Overnight we’ll clear our skies.  Temps will drop to the upper 20s.  Then tomorrow, more rain is in the forecast.  We’ll see scattered to occasional showers by the afternoon.

Future Trak (5pm Tuesday)

Future Trak (5pm Tuesday)

There may be a few sleet pellets mixing in, but they should be minimal.  Highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in the region.  The rain on Tuesday will be caused by a warm front which will start a nice warming period for a good 36 hours.  So we’ll be mild Tuesday night with rising temperatures.  We’ll keep rising on Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 60s.  Yeah!…upper 60s.  However, (you knew it was coming!) we can’t get used to the warmup, as a strong cold front will move in already by Thursday.  In fact we’ll go from the upper 60s for highs on Wednesday to the upper 30s on Thursday.  We’ll start the precipitation as rain showers, but this will try to transition into snow showers behind the front.  This will be a race between the dry and the cold air, but there may be some light accumulations by Thursday afternoon.  Probably on grassy surfaces.  Remember the ground will get a decent chance to warm up between Tuesday night and Thursday morning.

While we will get cold again, it won’t be like it was over the past 2 weeks.  We’ll see highs in the 40s returning by the weekend.

Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


February 2015 – Going Down In The Record Books

March 1st, 2015 at 9:33 pm by under Weather

February of 2015 is going down in the record books for being the 3rd COLDEST February since record keeping started in the 1800s! The graphic below shows the high temperatures from February 1 through February 28. Notice that temperatures were WAY BELOW average for more than half the month.

February High Temperatures

February High Temperatures

Being so cold, it was only fitting that we broke 4 temperature records. This February will also go down as being the 7th snowiest on record. The Norfolk Airport recorded 11.5 inches of snow for the month. Keep in mind that you may have seen more snow at your house. All of our climate data is taken from observations at the Norfolk Airport.

Today (March 1st) is the first day of Meteorological Spring. Meteorologists define seasons based on the annual temperature cycle. Each season consists of a group of 3 months. The winter months are December, January and February, otherwise known as the coldest months of the year. This makes it easier to keep seasonal data because the dates never change. This year, astronomical spring begins on March 20th, which is based on the position of the Earth in relation to the sun.

So far…it has been a cold and dreary start to March. Highs were only in the 30s today and we saw a mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain most of the day. The rain will taper off before midnight, but fog will likely develop overnight and could reduce visibilities in the morning. Monday will be a drier, FINALLY! Expect clouds and fog in the morning. A cold front will move through the region around midday and switch our winds, allowing drier air to move into the region. The clouds will clear out and the sun will be out with highs in the low to 40s. The weather pattern will remain very unsettled this week, meaning lots of rain chances are in the forecast. Most days this week will be chilly, with Wednesday being an exception.

Temperature Trend

Temperature Trend

Don’t get too excited for the 60s because we are tracking the chance for rain Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday could get interesting. A very strong cold front will move into the region Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Rain will develop behind the front. As colder air moves in, the rain will change over to sleet and snow. Accumulations are possible, especially for areas north of the metro. It’s still too early for numbers, so stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Glazed

March 1st, 2015 at 7:43 am by under Weather

Glazed donuts?  Yes please!

Glazed roads?  No thanks!

We will be tracking some freezing rain through the morning hours, mainly north and west of the Metro, so if you live in Suffolk, Hampton, Newport News, Williamsburg, Gloucester, Mathews, Cape Charles, Melfa..be aware of a glaze of ice on roads, sidewalks, and cars.

Freezing Rain This Morning

Freezing Rain This Morning

We are less likely to see freezing rain in Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and North Carolina since temperatures are already a couple degrees above freezing.  That’s the key here – if surface temperatures are at or below freezing, we’ll see frozen precip..places above freezing will just see regular rain showers.  We’ll be tracking scattered rain showers this afternoon with highs in the low-40s, so keep your umbrella on standby!

Future Trak 12 PM

Future Trak 12 PM

By the way, if you’re looking for an indoor activity today, you can check out the McDonald Garden Center Outdoor Show in Hampton from 9 AM until 6 PM.  Admission is free and you can meet Lex Gray and Joe Fisher at 10 AM, then Meteorologist Tiffany Savona and Deanna LeBlanc at 1 PM!  (That’s even better than a glazed donut!)

This is not the only chance we’ll have for showers this week.  Our weather pattern will be rather unsettled through Thursday, so most days come with a chance of wet weather.

Rain Chances - 5 Days

Rain Chances – 5 Days

Leave your umbrella at home on Monday!  We’ll kick off the work week with clouds in the morning, but more and more sunshine is expected through the afternoon with highs in the upper-40s.  Most of your Tuesday will be dry – I don’t expect any rain to develop until late in the day.  Wednesday looks to be the wettest day of the week, but also the warmest thanks to a brisk southwest breeze.  Between the rain and highs in the mid-60s, that snow pack will diminish quite a bit!  As temperatures drop off into the 30s Wednesday night, we may see the transition from rain over to a wintry mix/snow by Thursday morning.

*Sigh* Now I really want a donut….  See you later!

- Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Freezing Rain Sunday Morning?

February 28th, 2015 at 10:16 pm by under Weather

First off…today we tied the record for the COLDEST February 28th EVER! Back on February 28, 1934, the high at the Norfolk Airport was only 30°. Today, the high temperature at the Norfolk Airport was 30°. Average high this time of year is 54°! February has been a very cold month and it looks like it will be one of the coldest on record. I will have more on that in my blog tomorrow.

Highs Today

Highs Today

I’m tracking another disturbance to our south that will merge with an area of low pressure to our west to bring us the chance for rain on Sunday. One problem…if the rain moves in during the early morning hours, then we could have freezing rain because temperatures will still be in the 20s at that point. So it will be a battle of the rain vs. the temperature. I don’t think we will have a widespread freezing rain event, but I think a few spots could see freezing rain between 7 AM-12 PM tomorrow morning. Here are the areas at risk.

Freezing Rain Possible In Pink Areas

Freezing Rain Possible In Pink Areas

Our Future Trak model has some light freezing rain moving in around 8 AM for some of our inland and northern areas.

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

If you see any freezing rain, then you may have a light coating of ice on your car in the morning. There may also be some slick spots on bridges and overpasses. If you have a garage or a carport, I suggest moving your car into your garage or under your carport tonight. This will keep you from having to scrape the ice off your car just in case you see freezing rain.

Future Trak has some lingering freezing rain over the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck around Noon.

Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday

The wintry precipitation will change over to rain as temperatures warm up into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Rain will continue into the afternoon and evening. The rain and slightly warmer weather should help melt more of the snow and ice.

**Reminder** Deanna LeBlanc and I will be at the McDonald Garden Show in Hampton from 1-3 PM tomorrow. If you plan on going, come stop by and say hi to us! The show is indoors, so don’t let the rain keep you away.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Trading the Ice Scraper for the Umbrella

February 28th, 2015 at 9:32 am by under Weather

There’s the saying, “When life gives you lemons, make lemonade!”..

So what do you do when life gives you massive piles of snow?

Build ridiculously awesome snowmen!

Actually..in this case we got pictures of ridiculously awesome Olafs, Minions, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Penguins, and Sharks!

Did anyone build a Wicked Witch of the West?  Because unfortunately for the snowmen, we will see a lot of melting over the next few days.

What To Expect

What To Expect

With sunshine in the forecast today, that snow pack will get even smaller!  Just remember – temperatures do not have to be above freezing for us to see melting..the snow will melt anytime its in direct sunlight.  It’ll be a nice, quiet start to the weekend, but some changes are on the way for Sunday.

Clouds will gradually increase overnight, so expect mainly cloudy skies by the time you wake up tomorrow morning.  As we head through the morning hours, a batch of rain will approach from the west.  We’ll be tracking scattered showers anytime after 10 AM.  If you look at our Future Trak map, you’ll note that this model picks up on a few splashes of purple along the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore – this indicates the possibility for some freezing rain and sleet.

Future Trak 12 PM Sunday

Future Trak 12 PM Sunday

Williamsburg, Gloucester, Mathews, Melfa, Chincoteague – these are the places that have the best chance of seeing a frozen mix of precip.  The Southside and North Carolina should just see garden-variety rain showers.  We’ll be keeping a very close eye on surface temperatures since that will play a big role in whether you see rain or freezing rain.  I’m going to keep scattered showers in the forecast through Sunday evening.

Showers aside, a warming trend will start on Sunday!

Temperature Trend - 5 Days

Temperature Trend – 5 Days

Highs will be close to 40°, then the mercury will make another 10-degree jump on Monday!  Temperatures will drop slightly on Tuesday, but at this point, 46° will probably feel like 70°!  With a southwest breeze on Wednesday, we’ll trade highs in the 40s, for highs in the mid-60s!!

But hold on..don’t get your hopes up for a sunny and 64-degree day.

Our weather pattern will be a little unsettled next week, so with this warm up comes several chances for rain showers.

Rain Chances - 5 Days

Rain Chances – 5 Days

We’ll be tracking rain late Tuesday through Wednesday, into Thursday.  Wednesday and Thursday may be complete washouts.  As temperatures are expected to drop through Thursday afternoon, we may see a transition from rain to a rain/snow mix, but that’s six days out and a lot can change between now and then, so just get your regular, weekly amount of bread and milk..

If you need me, I’ll be in the cracker and soda aisle..

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Slow Improvement For The Weekend

February 27th, 2015 at 6:44 pm by under Weather

Sunshine this morning helped improve the streets a bit. Additionally, we’ve had an afternoon breeze which has dried the main roads a little more.

However, the neighborhood roads are still a slushy frozen mess and will freeze hard as temperatures drop to between 16 and 22 by dawn. It’ll actually be a couple of degrees cooler for Saturday. But more sunshine should help melt the roads just a bit more. Sunday looks a bit warmer (near 40) with a stray rain shower or two. Much warmer next week!

urgh


Warmer and Wetter Weather..BUT NOT TODAY

February 27th, 2015 at 7:43 am by under Weather

Lets see here..

THE DRESS (the one that some people see black and blue, others see white and gold)..
Llamas on the loose in Sun City, Arizona..
Spring is 21 days away..

Just trying to find other things to talk about other than the cold and snow!

Okay, I do have to talk about a chance of a few passing flurries today, but I don’t think everyone will see snowflakes.  Williamsburg, Gloucester, Mathews, Melfa, Chincoteague – these are the places that have the best chance of seeing flurries, but we may see the snowflakes as far south as Newport News and Poquoson.

What To Expect

What To Expect

Future Trak 3 PM

Future Trak 3 PM

You can see our Future Trak Forecast shows some faint splashes of blue around the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore, indicating that 2 in 10 chance for flurries.

After yesterday, I think we can handle some flurries!  Luckily, little to no accumulation expected.!

Snowflakes aside, expect scattered clouds out there today with highs in the low to mid-30s.  Even though temperatures will only be a couple degrees above freezing, we will still see some melting with those snow piles in direct sunlight.

As high pressure builds in overnight, we’ll have mainly clear skies with temperatures dropping back to about 20°.

We’ll kick off the weekend on Saturday with plenty of sunshine with highs near 30°.  We’ll trade the sun for more clouds on Sunday, but it’ll be about 10° warmer with highs near 40°.  You can thank a shift in the wind direction for that warm up!

Next 5 Days

Next 5 Days

Temperatures will be below average all weekend, but that won’t be the case next week!  You can see on our Temperature Trend graphic that the mercury will surge close to 50° Monday and Tuesday.  Believe it or not, we may be talking about highs in the 60s by Wednesday!

But hold that thought..

With the warmer weather comes the wetter weather.  (I would never be able to say that perfectly on-air..)  We will be tracking a chance of rain showers on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, so get ready to trade the snow boots for rain boots….the ice scraper for the umbrella!

Stay safe….and dry….and warm!

-Meteorologist Ashley Baylor


Snow Totals And What’s Next

February 26th, 2015 at 1:38 pm by under Weather

The snow tapered off around 9-10am, but there was still a small batch going on the Peninsula and Middle Peninsula around midday.

Satellite/Radar At Midday

Satellite/Radar At Midday

The flurries and light snow showers will be pushing out soon. It is caused by a little wave of energy in the mid levels that is behind the main system.  The surface low is happily farther heading out to sea.  We picked up some decent-high snow totals.  The highest totals were from inland areas of the Southside,  as well as the Pesinsula, and the Middle Peninsula.

Snow Totals

Snow Totals

There were a couple of isolated spots that had a little more, but these were the average.  The amounts for parts of the northern Peninsula and Middle Peninsula were underforecast (by me), but parts of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake were overforecast.  One thing we did really well was to forecast for that mix zone which set up in North Carolina and the Southside.  There were even periods of rain and sleet last night which lowered the snow totals there.  That is something that a lot of other forecasters didn’t really cover much.  Here was one photo of the heavy snow from the Gloucester area:

Snow On Deck (Gloucester)

Snow On Deck (Gloucester)

Wow!  Have a seat eh?  That photo was from Tracy.  It really came down up there.  Also we did have reports of some trees that had either bent over or had branches broken.  Here was an example of that from Newport News:

Snow Bends Tree

Snow Bends Tree

A lot of the roads are being plowed and treated today.  Temps have risen to the low/mid 30s.  So there will be some minor melting today.  Hopefully that will get some of the ice off of the power lines and trees.  The problem is that tonight the temps will drop down to the teens and 20s.  So we’ll see a refreeze of the roads.  So there will be black ice along with the ice and snow out there tomorrow morning. Many schools will be closed again, and many businesses will be either delayed or possibly closed again.  This is getting tough for the local economy.  Many businesses have been losing a lot of money (not all).  And now a lot of schools will have to double up their lessons to try to catch up.  Let alone the increasing amount of make up days.

Here’s a little bit of good news….Tomorrow we’ll see partly cloudy skies.  Highs will rise to the low/mid 30s.  If we’re lucky, then we’ll squeeze out some mid-upper 30s.  This should help to melt a lot of the roads.  Saturday we’ll see sunshine, but highs will only be in the low 30s.  We’ll finally warm up to the 40s on Sunday with partly cloudy skies.  Speaking of warm…we’ll see highs in the 50s next Monday and probably some 60s on Wednesday.  Rain will move in though.  It may be wet for 2 of those 3 days.

Thanks again for all of your reports and feedback.  They really do help with the forecast.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler