We have a little bit of everything in the forecast over the next few days. From spring to winter in just a 24-hour period. First, I’m tracking the chance for rain overnight. Another batch of rain should move in as warmer air moves in from the southwest behind a warm front. Our Future Trak has been consistent on bringing the rain in just before midnight.
Rain will quickly move out and temperatures will continue to rise overnight. Patchy fog may develop in some areas as temperatures rise into the upper 40s/lower 50s early Wednesday morning. Give the kids a light jacket tomorrow instead of the heavy winter coat. It will feel more like spring tomorrow afternoon with highs around 70° across the Southside and North Carolina and highs in the 60s from the Peninsula northward. A great day to grab lunch outside or to take a walk during your lunch break. Just watch out for those breezy southwest winds blowing at 15-20mph.
A strong cold front will slowly move through Hampton Roads from north to south Wednesday evening. Temperatures will drop a good bit once the front moves through, but the really cold air will lag behind the front. The upper level winds are going to be running parallel to the cold front, which is going to slow its movement and slow the arrival of the cold air. Rain will develop behind the front and slowly fill in across Virginia and North Carolina Wednesday night. The precipitation at this point will fall in the form as rain since temperatures will still be in the upper 30s and lower 40s at 7 AM Thursday.
As colder air moves in behind the front, the rain will change over to a mix of wet snow and sleet (purple area on Future Trak) by 3 PM. Notice that rain is still falling across North Carolina and areas just north of the state line. The mix has moved south into the Peninsula and Southside. The Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and Eastern Shore will see the mix change over to ALL snow. These areas have the best chances for seeing accumulating snow.
Here are some key things to remember. The snow will probably melt once it hits the wet roads and sidewalks. If we do see any accumulations, it would likely be on grassy areas, decks and cars. Once again the chance for rain and sleet will really cut down on snow totals. It seems like most computer models are coming in with a warmer and drier solution. If this trend continues, then we may need to bring snow totals down even more. However, there are still some models that are wetter and colder and we can’t discount them just yet. With that in mind, here is my snow totals forecast. I’m leaning toward the warmer and drier solutions based on the set-up of this storm system. I just don’t think the cold air is going to be here in time to really allow the snow to accumulate.
Bottom line: This is not going to be a big storm for us, but it will impact your Thursday evening commute. If we see more sleet, then we could see some minor ice accumulation. Right now it looks like the sleet would be mixing in with rain and wet snow. The wintry mix will taper off Thursday night. Any standing water or slush will freeze Thursday night into Friday morning because temperatures will drop into the 20s. So expect some slick spots early Friday morning, especially on bridges and overpasses. Friday will be dry with highs in the lower 30s.
Snow totals will change over the next 24 hours, so stay tuned! I will have more on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.
-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona