Weather

Benefit Of Odd Weather

July 29th, 2014 at 8:05 am by under Weather

We are seeing that odd weather pattern again over the United States.  An unusually cool airmass has pushed into the eastern half of the United States, and it has created a large trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

Odd Weather Pattern

Odd Weather Pattern

The reason it is odd is because this type of pattern hardly ever happens in the Summer.  Also, the pattern looks like it will be stuck for a few days.  Luckily this will give us some nice weather locally. Highs will be in the 80s and lows will be in the 60s for the next 3-4 days.   Other than an isolated shower in the region, we’ll have a dry forecast.

By next weekend things will change.  The trough will lift north, and we’ll warm up again.  The humidity will flow back northward. This will give us a higher chance for rain.

In the tropics I am tracking a large area of thunderstorms in the east central Atlantic.  It is moving west and is likely to become a tropical depression or storm in the next few days.

Area In The Tropics

Area In The Tropics

The models detect this area and generally strengthen it.  Over the next few days the system is forecast to move west and then northwest towards Puerto Rico.  The GFS model keeps it out to sea, but we’ll see what happens beyond the Greater Antilles.  For now it’s just something to watch.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Dry Air Is The Trick!

July 28th, 2014 at 7:57 am by under Weather

It has been a tough forecast over the last 24 hours.  While we did have a couple of rounds of showers and storms, they weren’t too bad.  Meanwhile there were many reports of severe weather around parts of the Midwest and Southeast. A strong cold front moved from the Midwest into the Appalachians overnight. Showers and storms along the front fell apart since then.

Satellite/Radar/Fronts

Satellite/Radar/Fronts

The trick today was tracking the moisture…or lack of it.  At the surface this morning there was ample moisture and even some instability.  Here were the dew points:

Dew Points (Surface Moisture)

Dew Points (Surface Moisture)

It was warm and muggy.  Temps started in the upper 70s to low 80s.  However, at the mid-levels, there was a strong punch of dry air coming in from the west.  This can be seen very well on our Water Vapor product.

Water Vapor

Water Vapor

This tool shows the dry/moist air at the mid levels of the Troposphere.  I’ll admit it’s pretty complicated how it works.  There’s more info on the link above.  However, all you need to know in this context is that the dry air has reached our area, and that will lower our rain chances today.  Even though the cold front still lies to our west.  The dry air is the dark and orange area on the above map.

Eventually we’ll also dry out at the lower levels.  You will notice it by the end of the day.  Highs will be in the low 90s, but there will be a strong breeze through the day.  It will run out of the southwest, then west at 10-20mph.  Other than a few isolated showers and storms, we’ll see some nice weather.

Tomorrow the front will stall out off shore.  We could see a few isolated showers or storms during the afternoon.  Otherwise, it will be a very nice day.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.  Winds will be out of the north at 10mph.  Great weather will follow for Wednesday through Friday.  Highs will be in the 80s.  It will be nice and dry.  Lows will be in the 60s.  By next weekend we’ll up the humidity and the rain chances.  I don’t see a washout, but stay tuned for finer details as it gets closer.

In the tropics there is one small area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic.  This set of showers has a medium chance for development over the next few days as it moves west.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

For me…until it’s something, it’s nothing.  Meaning… until NHC gives it a label I’ll only keep an eye on it.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Storm Threat Not Over Yet!

July 27th, 2014 at 9:08 pm by under Weather

We told you yesterday that we would have a chance for severe weather this afternoon. But that never materialized earlier today. We saw widespread rain and cloud cover instead.  Here is what the radar looked like at 9 AM.

Sunday Morning Showers

Sunday Morning Showers: 9 AM Radar Image

The areas that didn’t see rain this morning saw the rain early this afternoon.

2 PM Radar

Sunday Afternoon Showers: 2 PM Radar Image

The widespread rain and cloud cover held down the severe weather threat this afternoon. Last night’s computer model runs underestimated the amount of rain and cloud cover this morning, therefore overestimated the amount of instability in the atmosphere. Temperatures stayed in the 70s and 80s all afternoon. Future Trak has a few showers and storms developing around midnight.

Future Trak at Midnight

Future Trak at Midnight

An upper level disturbance should be responsible for triggering these storms overnight. These storms could be on the strong side as we will have plenty of wind shear to keep these storms alive. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats with any storms that develop overnight. Tornado threat is low, but can’t be ruled out completely. The wind shear is high, which means that storms will be able to rotate. All storms should weaken before sunrise tomorrow morning. The cold front won’t move into the Hampton Roads cities until late Monday afternoon. Since we are going to be south of the front most of the day, we are still going to see heat up with highs around 90°. The actual cold front may spark off an isolated storm, but the best chances will be across North Carolina, especially the Outer Banks.

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Most computer models keep us dry as the front moves through Hampton Roads, but I think we still may see a few storms with all of the heat and humidity in place tomorrow. Once the front moves through, cooler and drier air will move into the area. High temperatures will only be around 80° on Tuesday with less humidity! I’m excited! Tune into WAVY News 10 at 11 for an update. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will be on-air Monday morning starting at 4:30, tracking any rain or storms on Super Doppler 10.

Midnight Update: Super Doppler 10 is quiet and I think the chances of us seeing storms overnight is going down. We may see a few showers/storms over the next few hours, but we are not looking at any widespread activity. However, if any storms develop, they could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts as the main threat.

 

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Storm Threat Today: Afternoon Update

July 27th, 2014 at 1:21 pm by under Weather

The rain and cloud cover basically kept us cool so that the severe storms weren’t able to develop this early afternoon. Earlier this morning I said there would be two chances for severe storms today. Round 1 would have been now, since that isn’t panning out we need to look forward to round 2. That could happen tonight after sunset.

Future Trak @ 10 PM

Future Trak @ 10 PM

That may produce a squall line with damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph. Remember, it is still a model. Things may change during the afternoon. Watch the video forecast I made below for more information.

Stay Sky Aware, Tiffany Savona will have another update this evening.


Severe Weather Threat Today

July 27th, 2014 at 9:00 am by under Weather

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk of severe weather. Our threat will be enhanced this afternoon as our temperatures warm up.

Slight Risk

Slight Risk

Threat Index

Threat Index

Straight Line wind gusts are my biggest concern today. I believe the majority of these storms will either develop in West Virginia or in Central Virginia and track to the east into Hampton Roads. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 90s this afternoon which will be the major fuel source for storms. Levels like CAPE, Shear, and the Lifted Index are expected to remain in the favorable category for severe weather development. The high resolution weather models have been showing two different times when we could see thunderstorms today.

Future Trak @2pm

Future Trak @ 2pm

Supercells may develop, like the one from yesterday, across our area today. Future Trak has been hinting at a time frame of 12pm-2pm for development of these storms. Another wave of strong storms may come through tonight.

Future Trak @ 10pm

Future Trak @ 10pm

A Squall Line, or sometime of multicell structure may move through the area tonight into NE NC. This line may also contain damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph. Remember, you can keep an eye out for the storms with Super Doppler 10 and check our our Alerts page for any watches or warnings that may be issued.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 


Tonight’s Storms Plus Sunday’s Severe Weather Threat

July 26th, 2014 at 9:08 pm by under Weather

Most of your Saturday was dry, but there were a couple of strong storms that developed across our northern areas as a warm front lifted northward. The storms first developed across the Middle Peninsula. The storms grew in size and intensity and impacted folks across the Peninsula, Eastern Shore and Southside Hampton Roads. These storms dumped a lot of rain in a short period of time. This is what the radar looked like at 6 PM.

Satellite/Radar at 6 PM

Satellite/Radar at 6 PM

The storms held together and made it through Virginia Beach and even south of the state line before weakening. Lots of photos were sent in from viewers showing the low hanging clouds associated with this strong storm. This photo was taken by Susan in Great Bridge and it shows great structure of a supercell thunderstorm. The circular part of the storm is called a mesocyclone, which is essentially a rotating updraft.

Storm Looking From Great Bridge

Storm Looking From Great Bridge

The areas that saw rain tonight saw a lot of it. Some totals are over an inch of rain in just a 1-2 hour period.

Rain Totals

Tonight’s Rain Totals

Storms should wind down before midnight tonight. Another active weather day is in the forecast for tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our area in a slight risk for severe weather. We may see a stray shower in the morning north of the metro, but we have better chances for rain during the afternoon. A wind shift line will move through Hampton Roads tomorrow afternoon along with an upper level disturbance. We will have plenty of heat and humidity to work with since temperatures will be in the low 90s. The upper level disturbance will bring in some cool air aloft allowing the air to rise. Showers and storms should develop along wind shift line anytime after 12 PM. Any storm that develops tomorrow could turn severe with damaging winds in excess of 60mph and large hail as the main threats. Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out completely, but the higher tornado threat will be located across West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky. Here is what our latest Futuretrak model has at 3 PM.

Future Trak at 3 PM

Future Trak at 3 PM

Some computer models are hinting that we could see another round of rain and storms late Sunday night into Monday morning. If this happens, then the severe weather threat will be going down during the day on Monday. Stay tuned! I will have another update coming up on WAVY News 10 at 11. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will have another forecast for you starting at 6 AM on WAVY News 10 Sunday morning.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Isolated Showers Possible Today, Strong Storms Return Tomorrow

July 26th, 2014 at 9:00 am by under Weather

Isolated showers will develop this afternoon as warmer and more humid air works its way back in to Hampton Roads.

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

Usually along warm fronts, we get showers and areas of light rain. That will be the theme today. As the warmer air moves in a few isolated showers will develop along the front and around Hampton Roads this afternoon. I don’t expected thunderstorms to develop today. Tomorrow is the better day for thunderstorm development.

Damaging Wind Gusts & Hail Possible Tomorrow

Damaging Wind Gusts & Hail Possible Tomorrow

Damaging wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes may be a result of the severe weather setup we have for tomorrow. That threat is expected to continue into the overnight hours.

Future Trak @ 5pm Sunday

Future Trak @ 5pm Sunday

High temperatures will be in the 90s on Sunday. The dew points will be in the 70s, so it will feel like it reaches over 100 degrees tomorrow. We will continue to monitor the sever weather setup for Sunday and Monday. Stay tuned for another update tonight from Tiffany Savona on WAVY TV and myself tomorrow morning starting at 6am.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


The Tornado And Other Damage From Thursday

July 25th, 2014 at 8:56 am by under Weather

It’s sad when you hear about a person that died from the weather.  Especially when you are covering it.  You try and keep people as safe as you can, but meteorologists can only do so much.  Yesterday, there was a confirmed tornado on the Eastern Shore.  It was rated an EF-1 tornado with estimated winds between 80 and 100mph.

Tornado/Wind Info

Tornado/Wind Info

The tornado moved through Cherrystone.  It especially hit hard a large campground there.  There were 2 deaths as a tree fell on a tent.  It was a family and the child is in the hospital  A very sad story.

There was a 150 yard wide path of damage.  It lasted for 8 miles.  One viewer sent in this photo of their camper which had been overturned.

Damage In Cherrystone

Damage In Cherrystone

This person said that her child had been hit in the head by a branch.  They are all ok according the the email, but there were numerous injuries at the park.  There was also some straight-lined wind damage from the storm that stretched down to Cape Charles.  Large hail also fell in the region.  It made it up to about golf-ball sized.

Looking back at what happened, this was an almost worst case scenario. (a stronger tornado in the middle of the night would be THE worst case).  For example, while there was some broad rotation in the storm, but  it didn’t tighten up until about 2 miles from the shore.  It then dropped a waterspout that moved onto land and became a tornado.  With the storm moving east at 25mph, that doesn’t leave much time to warn.  There was a lead time between the warning and the actual tornado.  I’ve heard different numbers, but 8 minutes is the most common. Also, this happened early in the morning. This is typically our most stable time of day.  In a previous blog I mentioned that the instability was actually growing at this time.  Also at that time of day most folks are just waking up when they are on vacation.  It was very warm and humid out.  The deep humidity led to lower clouds than usual.  With the localized spin this helped lead to a tornado.  Finally, the area hit was one of the largest campgrounds in the region.  Campers and trailers are highly susceptible to damage during severe winds, and it’s even worse during a tornado.  So say a prayer for the folks that are over on the Eastern Shore today.

Aside from that we also had strong storms yesterday morning and evening in some other Virginia cities.  Here are the 24 hour severe weather reports:

Storm Reports

Storm Reports

We also had numerous reports sent into the station.  Here was one photo of a huge tree down in Hunterdale, VA.

Tree Down In Hunterdale, VA

Tree Down In Hunterdale, VA

It had to be a strong wind to be able to do that as the tree looked pretty thick.  Also, I had one viewer send me a report on facebook.  This is of a silo in Sedley, VA which took some major damage.

Silo Down In Sedley

Silo Down In Sedley

There were also many reports of street flooding, lightning, and hail.  The one bright spot out of all of this is that one large area got rain that needed it.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

From the Peninsula northward there was over an inch of rain.  About 1-2 inches in some cases.  This region had missed out on a lot of the recent rain.  So I am happy for them.  Jan in Reedville had been hoping for rain for weeks.  She got over an inch.

Today the cold front has settled to our south.

Satellite/Radar/Fronts

Satellite/Radar/Fronts

We had a cooler morning with lows in the 60s and 70s.  There were a few sprinkles early, but then they moved south.  High pressure will build in through the day and we’ll gradually dry things out.  We’ll see highs in the low/mid 80s.  Winds will be out of the north at 10mph. Tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the upper 60s to near 70.  Tomorrow looks good.  Skies will be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s.  Heat will build in again by Sunday. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s.  We’ll see some late day showers and storms.  Storms will fire up again on Monday out ahead of another cold front.  Since we’ve had this crazy pattern, I would expect more strong-severe storms.  So stay tuned to the weather.  There will be another batch of much cooler air over the Midwest.  Behind the front, some of that will move into our region by the middle of next week.

I miss the old days of partly cloudy with a few pop up showers and storms each day during the Summer.  I’m not a fan of this crazy pattern.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


EF1 Tornado Confirmed On The Eastern Shore

July 24th, 2014 at 6:05 pm by under Weather

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for all of the yellow counties and cities until 11pm.

Severe TStorm Watch Until 11pm

Severe TStorm Watch Until 11pm

The storms may contain damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph and also quarter sized hail. Keep your television set tuned to WAVY TV for more information.

Tornado Recap:

The strong storm that moved across the Chesapeake Bay was able to create a tornado and straight-line wind damage.

Super Doppler 10 Radar

Super Doppler 10 Radar

Severe Storm On Radar

Severe Storm On Radar

Tornado Path

Tornado Path

Here are the details:

  • EF1 Tornado with winds up to 100mph
  • 150 yards wide
  • 8 mile path length (Some was over water)
  • 2 Fatalities
  • 36 Injuries

There was also reports of baseball sized hail near the Cherrystone Campground and 75mph straight line wind damage.


Severe Weather From Today

July 24th, 2014 at 2:02 pm by under Weather

I won’t lie…This morning was rough.  Storms fired up early and produced severe weather across the region.  A cold front entered the region and kicked off numerous downpours.  There was a very humid airmass out ahead of the boundary.  Temperatures were already very warm in the upper 70s to near 80.  There was some instability, but it wasn’t off the charts.  In fact…there was no smoking gun for this morning.  Through the early morning hours there was no slight risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center.  It was upgraded by mid morning, but that was about the time of the damage on the Eastern Shore.  The computer models did not pick up on the earliness of the storms.  I will say that there were a couple things that favored strong storms.  There was some upper level wind support.  It was decent for this time of year.  Plus, the instability was growing despite the early time of day.  The cold front provided a focus for storms, and the cloud decks were very low due to the deep humidity.  As a few of the storms started they produced heavy rain to our west, but there were no warnings initially.

Satellite/Radar (7:30am)

Satellite/Radar (7:30am)

By about 8:30 am one of the storms moved from the Middle Peninsula across the Chesapeake Bay.  As it did so, it gained a lot of strength.  Before it reached the Eastern Shore there was a severe thunderstorm warning for one of the inland storms.  So we started to focus on that.  The radar had already showed an area of strong reflectivity over the Bay storm.  This was a sign of heavy rain and hail.  However, there wasn’t much rotation as it was over the Bay.  About 1-2 miles offshore it did pick up the rotation, and it did likely form a waterspout.  At it moved over land it likely became a tornado.  The National Weather Service is working to confirm this as I type.

Super Doppler 10 Radar

Super Doppler 10 Radar

The rotation moved right over Cherrystone and Cheriton, VA.  There was a brief spinup, and then the rotation dissipated shortly after those towns.  There was a lot of damage to a camp ground in Cherrystone.  There was also some large hail reported.  Again, there wasn’t a lot of time to warn folks as the storm really took shape just offshore.  There was a marine warning for over the Bay for mariners.  Unfortunately, there were some deaths.  Here’s the story so far: Eastern Shore.

Storms continued a while longer.  The front slowly slipped southward, and temperatures dropped.

Satellite, Radar, & Fronts

Satellite, Radar, & Fronts

We’ll still see scattered showers and storms this afternoon into the evening. A few storms will be strong over northeast North Carolina, but the storms shouldn’t be too bad for the rest of the region.  Heavy rain will still be possible.  The models do show that.  There’s a lot of storm reports coming in, but I haven’t see many photos of the actual tornado.  I have seen one possible photo, but no others.  We’re trying to confirm.  We’ll have more updates this evening.  We will see a nice day tomorrow.  I think we all need it at this point.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler