Weather

A Nearby Low

October 21st, 2014 at 9:06 am by under Weather

This upcoming weather system is going to have more of an impact on the northeast states compared to our region, but it will have an impact nonetheless.  An area low pressure was swinging through the Ohio river valley and was moving east/southeast.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Out ahead of it we had some moisture this morning which caused a few sprinkles here and there.  However, there is clearing off to our west that will push in through the late morning.  Meanwhile the low will continue to move east and will create some scattered showers just to our northwest.

Today's Forecast Map

Today’s Forecast Map

The showers will mostly stay to our west through the day.  However a few showers will try to sneak in late in the afternoon into the evening.  Our Future Trak model shows a few showers just west of us by 5pm.  I think a few could come in by then.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

The cold front (above map) will work through the area this evening.  The chance for rain will pick up.  We’ll keep scattered showers overnight into tomorrow even though the front will have cleared the region.  The reason is that the area of low pressure will strengthen off to our northeast.  Plus, some upper level energy will swing through our area behind it.  So we aren’t looking at thunderstorms, but scattered showers will continue.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Both of these lows (upper and lower level) will push out by Thursday.  Then we’ll be dry going into the weekend.  (Which looks great by the way!).  All in all we are looking at a couple tenths of an inch in the region between today and tomorrow night, but they are expecting several inches in the northeast states.

Temps will rise to the low 70s today.  Then we’ll be in the mid 60s tomorrow and Thursday.  We’ll steadily rise into the upper 60s to low 70s over the weekend.   Winds will be southwest today at 8-12mph.  Tomorrow they will increase to 10-20mph with gusts to 25mph. They will run from the northwest through tomorrow evening. We’ll stay breezy on Thursday.

In the tropics there is one area that has a medium chance for development over the next couple of days.  Near the Bay of Campeche there is a cluster of thunderstorms that is getting better organized.

Bay Of Campeche

Bay Of Campeche

Even if it does become tropical, it will eventually interact with the same cold front that will impact our region.  Therefore it will probably become non-tropical again down the road.  We’ll continue to monitor.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Chill Is In The Air

October 20th, 2014 at 8:47 am by under Weather

Well…today Don Roberts actually had a right to complain about the cold temps.  I’ve gave him a hard time when he said he was running the heat in his car while the morning temps were in the upper 50s to near 60 last week.  Now this morning we started with lows in the 30s and 40s.  So even I ran the heat in my car a bit.

Temps This Morning

Temps This Morning

The average lows are in the 50s this time of year, but 40s are still normal.  30s are a bit early though.  We even had a couple of reports of patchy frost.  We had clear skies and light winds.  So that promoted a lot of cooling.  Today we’ll see a lot of sunshine with high pressure pushing just offshore.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The cloud cover will be the high-thin cirrus type clouds.  So plenty of sunshine will be able to get through.  With the high pushing offshore we’ll see light southerly winds this afternoon.  That will warm us up to the upper 60s to low 70s.  Tomorrow some moisture will work into the area and will try to create a few spotty showers.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  However, another cold front will move through the region on Wednesday.  This will knock the highs back down to the low/mid 60s.  Lows will be in the 40s again as well.  We’ll see a few showers on Wednesday near and behind the front.  Then we’ll have lots of sunshine from Thursday into the weekend.  Temps will rise to the 70s during the weekend as well. Should be beautiful.

Gonzalo is now a post-tropical system.  It is basically like a large nor’easter that is headed for the U.K.  They are preparing for the storm.

Post-Tropical Gonzalo

Post-Tropical Gonzalo

There is also a weak disturbance over towards Africa that may become a subtropical system.  You can see it on the lower right hand side of the above image.  Plus there is a weak disturbance over towards central America that may become a tropical system in the next few days.  We’ll continue to monitor these areas

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Colder Air Is Coming

October 18th, 2014 at 9:03 am by under Weather

As we enter the second half of October I believe we are going to be seeing cooler temperatures than we did for the first half. Our highs today will be in the mid-70s. Starting tomorrow, for at least a week, we will be having highs in the 60s. That will all start to happen later today.

Gonzalo Fading Away, Watching A Cold Front

Gonzalo Fading Away, Watching A Cold Front

The cold front to our northwest will be moving through today, we will likely see extra cloud cover this afternoon because of the passing front. Temperatures should still be in the 70s this afternoon. Tonight, we will see mostly cloudy skies with temperatures going all the way down to the 40s by tomorrow morning. A few sprinkles are possible.

Future Trak @ 9pm

Future Trak @ 9pm

Our best chance of rain won’t be till after sunset. We could see some light rain across the entire viewing area sometime tonight. The rain and clouds will clear out tomorrow morning. Since we will have strong northwest winds tomorrow, high temperatures will struggle to make it to the mid 60s in the afternoon. We should be sunny tomorrow. Lows will be in the 30s Sunday night.

Surf Forecast:

The leftovers of the Gonzalo swell is still giving us plenty of good surf across the area. Wave heights are in the 2-4ft range for Virginia Beach. Bigger waves can still be found across the OBX.

Surf Report

Surf Report

Some of the camera’s that our partners have over on Surfline.com have shown 5-8ft waves early this morning. (Around Rodanthe and Hatteras)

Have a great weekend!

 

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

 


Weekend Cool-Down And Gonzalo

October 17th, 2014 at 8:46 am by under Weather

Locally we have some great weather on the way.  We started today with this:

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

The sunshine was aplenty and the temperatures were in the 50s.  We’ll see lots of sun today as high pressure has sunk into the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The upper level low that moved over us yesterday has moved out to sea.  Highs will be in the mid 70s.  Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.  Not too shabby.  Tonight will be quiet with lows in the 50s.  We’ll start off tomorrow with clear skies and cool temps.  By the afternoon things will change a bit.  A cold front will move through the region along with a weak mid level disturbance.  Normally this would cause some showers, but at this time it looks too dry.  I will say that there may be a couple of sprinkles, but for now the models only really show an increase in clouds.  Highs will still manage to get into the 70s.  By Sunday the front will have cleared the region.  We’ll have clearing skies and dry weather behind it.  So Sunday will see lots of sunshine and highs in the mid 60s.  The low temperatures won’t be too cool yet.  However, by Monday morning we’ll see temps drop to the 40s area-wide.  It’s possible that we could even see a few 30s inland between Monday and Tuesday morning.  It’s probably too early for frost, but stay tuned for updates.

Speaking of updates…Hurricane Gonzalo remains a powerful hurricane.  The eye of the hurricane has become more ragged, but the latest winds are still high.

Gonzalo On Satellite

Gonzalo On Satellite

The filling in of the eye may be a sign of longer term weakening, but that remains to be seen.  This morning the hurricane had winds of 130mph.  This is likely to go down as the forecast calls for, but they probably won’t drop too much before landfall.  It is still forecast to hit Bermuda as a category 3 hurricane later today.

Gonzalo Forecast

Gonzalo Forecast

This means that the winds will be about 120mph sustained with gusts up to 150mph.  These are similar conditions to when hurricane Fabian hit the island back in 2003.  That hurricane caused extensive damage to the Bermuda coast and to much of the island.  The surge was about 11ft then.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the surge got above 12 feet from Gonzalo.   Either way, the waves are forecast to reach 35-40ft.

Wave Height From Gonzalo

Wave Height From Gonzalo

Those wave heights are on top of the surge.  Luckily much of the island is elevated and there are some coral reefs surrounding it as well.  Notice that even here locally we’ll see an increase in the waves.  Expect about 4-5 ft waves with some 5-7 ft waves near Hatteras.  This will stay up a bit tomorrow, but will drop on Sunday.  Should be good surf with our winds out of the west.  The hurricane will move over the north Atlantic waters and will gradually weaken this weekend.  It doesn’t look like it will impact Newfoundland much anymore.  It is forecast to stay a little farther out to sea.  They will get some high waves though.  Hopefully, Bermuda will be ok.  As I mentioned in a previous blog, they have had a lot of storms over the last few years.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Coolness, Gonzalo, & Snowy Winter?

October 16th, 2014 at 9:03 am by under Weather

We did have the rain yesterday, but luckily we didn’t have any severe weather in the region.  A pocket of drier air in the mid levels and lots of clouds helped to limit the bad weather in the region.  The rain totals weren’t too bad.  We had about 3/4″ up to 1″ from the Peninsula northward with 0.25″ to about 0.5″  for the Southside, Eastern Shore, and northeast North Carolina.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

Another reason that we probably didn’t see strong storms was that the cold front moved way out ahead of the upper level low.  Today that will play a part in our forecast.  For instance…this morning we had a lot of sunshine and cooler temperatures behind the front.  The rain had pushed well offshore.  Other than some patchy light fog it was a nice morning.  However, the upper level low still hasn’t passed through yet.  It is off to our west.

Sattelite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

So as the upper level pocket of energy moves into Hampton Roads this afternoon we’ll see the clouds increase, and a couple of sprinkles will form.  Highs will be in the low/mid 70s.  By tomorrow this system will push out to sea.  So we’ll have lots of sunshine.  However, the winds will be more northerly.  So we’ll hold onto the highs in the low 70s.  Another weak upper level low will move through on Saturday, but it only looks to increase the clouds for now.  Then more sunshine on Sunday.  Highs will be in the 70s on Saturday, but cooler air will surge into the region on Sunday.  So highs will be in the 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

Speaking of cooler weather…. The Winter forecast is still up in the air a bit.  (No pun intended) However, there are some signs that it really could be as snowy and wintry as some sources are suggesting.  One big indicator for the Winter forecast is the amount of snowpack over Siberia.  Yep, the geographic area over Asia.  There is more and more research on how snowpack in Siberia is linked to U.S. snowfall through teleconnections.    Here is a new article with an update on the current snowpack, and the possible effects it could have on global weather.  Siberia Snowpack.   This is not the only thing to watch, but signs are pointing to a colder snowier Winter at this point.  We’ll see what happens in October.

Last, but not least… Hurricane Gonzalo is still a major hurricane.  It went up to category 4 (winds of  130-156mph) status yesterday.  Then it went back down last night to a cat 3.  This morning the 5 am update came in very early.  At that time the National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm to a category 4 again. What happened was that the eye went under an eyewall replacement cycle.   It even disappeared on satellite, but then came back this morning.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

The storm was over 500 miles SSW of Bermuda and was moving north.  Sustained winds were at 140mph.  The hurricane is forecast to head straight towards Bermuda in the next 36 hours.  This is terrible news for the island.  In fact it is currently forecast to move over Bermuda as a major hurricane on Friday.   Damaging winds and possible flooding are forecast for the region along with high waves.  This could be the most destructive storm to hit there since hurricane Fabian in 2003.  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Wednesday Midday Update

October 15th, 2014 at 1:21 pm by under Weather

So far we have seen scattered showers this morning. Now, the main line of showers and storms is pushing into our western counties. The large area of rain will be in the metro area in the next hour or so, between 2-3 PM. Heavy rain and gusty winds will still be the main threats.  Our instability remains limited, which is why we haven’t seen many thunderstorms. A few may develop this afternoon, but this is not looking like a big severe weather event. Our latest hi-resolution computer model has widespread showers and storms by 3 PM.

Future Trak at 3 PM Weds

Future Trak at 3 PM Weds

Rain looks to become more scattered by the 5 PM, so the evening commute may not be that bad.

Future Trak at 5 PM Weds

Future Trak at 5 PM Weds

The cold front will move through Hampton Roads from west to east early this evening. Rain will taper off before midnight, so Thursday is looking much drier. We should start off with a mix of sun and clouds Thursday morning. Then the clouds will fill back in thanks to an upper level low overhead. We may even see a few sprinkles by Thursday evening. Cooler and drier weather is expected Friday through the weekend. Meteorologist Don Slater and I will have a full update coming up on WAVY News 10 starting at 4 PM.

In the tropics, Gonzalo is now a Category 4 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. This is the first category 4 storm since Ophelia back in 2011. This major hurricane will impact Bermuda early Friday. Gonzalo will stay away from the U.S.

Hurricane Gonzalo

Hurricane Gonzalo

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Strong Storms And Hurricane Gonzalo

October 15th, 2014 at 8:49 am by under Weather

No doubt that there’s been some rough weather to our west over the past couple of days.  A powerful system has brought numerous reports of severe weather to the Deep South and the Midwest.   As the system moved east it is lost some of its energy.  However, we could still see a few strong storms in our region today.

A cold front was the focus for a long line of showers and storms since the overnight hours.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The line was moving very slowly to the east.  Meanwhile we’ve had a few showers moving up from the south ahead of the line.  We will be ahead of the front during the day.  The low level winds will be very strong.  Surface winds will gust up to 30mph.  This will let the temperatures climb into the low 80s this afternoon.  Also, the moisture is continuing to pool into the region.  The line of storms will slowly edge east through the day.  We may see a brief break in the clouds and rain, but this will be short lived.  Here is what our Future Trak model shows for noon:

Future Trak (Noon)

Future Trak (Noon)

If we do get some sunshine, then it will add to our instability.  Then the storms will feed off of this between noon and 3pm.  Wind shear is fairly high today, but the instability should be somewhat limited.   The main threat from the storms will be strong gusty winds over 45mph.  Also, heavy rain will be a threat as well.  Hail should be very limited.  An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, but the chance is very low.  The showers and storms will still be going into the evening, but they should be a bit more scattered at that time.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

The showers and storms will taper off through the late evening.  The cold front will finally move through in the late evening hours between about 9pm and midnight.  All-in-all we are looking at about an inch of rain in the region.  A few locations will see over an inch and a half.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

By tomorrow we’ll see much quieter/cooler weather.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  We may see some sunshine in the morning, but we’ll have an increase in clouds during the afternoon.  The upper level low will push through the region at that time.  So we could even see a few sprinkles.  Shouldn’t be much.  Then we’ll finally dry out by Thursday night.  Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look great. We’ll see lots of sunshine and highs in the 60s and 70s.

Hurricane Gonzalo is churning over the central Atlantic waters.  It has sustained winds of 125mph.  This is a category 3 hurricane.  It was located about 650 miles south of Bermuda, and was moving northwest at 13mph.  The hurricane lost its eye for a bit this morning. Then it re-formed.  But it was much smaller than it was last night.

Gonzalo On Satellite

Gonzalo On Satellite

The storm is forecast to move more to the north today, and then north-northeast by tonight.  Gonzalo is encountering some wind shear and a little drier air.  Soon it will also move over cooler waters.  So it’s possible that it will weaken a bit as it heads towards Bermuda.  However, the latest forecast still has it as a major hurricane as it approaches the island tomorrow.

Gonzalo Forecast

Gonzalo Forecast

This could really disrupt things over Bermuda.  They not only just had hurricane Fay, but overall they have had a lot of storms over the last few years.  In fact Bermuda has seen more than twice as much tropical activity as the state of Florida over the last few years.

We’ll see some waves come in from Gonzalo.  We are looking at some 4 foot waves today with a few 5 footers possible.  Friday and Saturday could see some 5 foot waves with a few 6 footers.  Stay tuned for updates to all of this.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Warm, Windy & Stormy Wednesday

October 14th, 2014 at 9:18 pm by under Weather

Changes are coming over the next 12-24 hours. We have been tracking a very powerful storm system that has brought severe weather to many states over the past few days. This cold front will move into Hampton Roads tomorrow evening.

Tracking The Cold Front

Tracking The Cold Front

I think the rain will stay off to our west overnight, but we may see showers and storms fire up early tomorrow morning around 7 AM. Any discrete storm will have the potential to turn strong, even during the morning hours.

Future Trak at 7 AM Weds

Future Trak at 7 AM Weds

It looks like we may get a break for a few hours before a second line of showers and storms moves through the region. This second round of storms could also be strong, but that highly depends on what happens in the morning. If we see more rain and more clouds in the morning, then the storms will be weaker during the afternoon. If we see more sunshine in the morning, then the storms that develop during the afternoon will have more instability to work with.

Future Trak at 3 PM Wednesday

Future Trak at 3 PM Wednesday

The best chance for rain and storms will be between 1-7 PM. The main threats with any storm will be the chance for damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. The tornado threat is low, but not out of the question. This system has a lot of energy along with it, so we will have plenty of wind shear in the atmosphere. Forecast rain totals are going to be about 1 inch on average. However, if you get stuck under a thunderstorm, then you could see higher totals. Wednesday will still be warm and windy with highs around 80° and southerly winds from 15-25mph. The front will clear most of the area just after sunset. We could see a few lingering showers Wednesday night, but the storm threat will be over. The latest computer models are pushing the rain out a little bit earlier on Thursday. Rain should be done before 8 AM on Thursday. Clouds should break up a bit by Thursday afternoon. Then we will see the clouds build back in thanks to the upper level low sitting overhead. There may even be a few sprinkles by Thursday night. Cooler and drier weather will be back just in time for the weekend.

Tropical Update:

Hurricane Gonzalo is now a category 3 storm and the second major hurricane of the year. Gonzalo will continue to strengthen and is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane at some point tomorrow. This storm will move right over Bermuda on Friday, so the island needs to prepare for another hurricane. This is just one week after Fay damaged parts of Bermuda this past weekend.

Hurricane Gonzalo

Hurricane Gonzalo

The storm system that will move through Hampton Roads tomorrow will steer Gonzalo to the east and keep it away from the East Coast of U.S. We will see some higher surf by the end of the week and into the weekend.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Warm and Sunny Today; Tracking The Tropics

October 14th, 2014 at 9:18 am by under Weather

High temperatures are going to be well above average today thanks to a strong flow of warm and humid air from the southeast. Temperatures will be in the 80s this afternoon. Most of us will be dry today, a isolated pop-up show may develop this afternoon. Rain is expected to arrive tomorrow morning and then again in the afternoon.

Future Trak Wednesday @8am

Future Trak Wednesday @ 8am

Future Trak @ 7pm

Future Trak @ 7pm

As the cold front comes through our area late tomorrow afternoon we may see a strong thunderstorms across Hampton Roads. The biggest risk will be for damaging wind gusts. I am expecting for many of our areas to receive around 1 inch of rain. The rain will clear out on Thursday.

Tropical Update

Watching Gonzalo

Watching Gonzalo

Gonzalo will pass to our east, it will likely hit Bermuda as a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane late on Friday. It will be far enough away from us so we should see sunshine and calm weather. The swell from Gonzalo will make for some great surf later this week and weekend.

Surf Update

Surf Update

Wave heights will be 3-4ft Thursday-Friday. Possibly up to 5ft on Saturday, then going back down on Sunday. We should see offshore winds all weekend.

Have a good Tuesday!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

 


Warming Up Today, Possible Afternoon Shower

October 13th, 2014 at 9:32 am by under Weather

Today we will see our temperatures warm up to be above average again. Highs are going to climb into the upper 70s this afternoon. (Average: 71 degrees)

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

A large trough is in place over the center of the country. This trough will bring severe weather to Tennessee and the Southern States today. As of the morning the center of the low was in Oklahoma.

Isolated PM Showers today.

Isolated PM Showers today.

Since our temperatures are going to warm to the 70s today, an isolated shower is possible from the extra heat and humidity we will have available. These showers will fade away tonight, and tomorrow we should be dry with partly cloudy skies. Rain is still expected to arrive on Wednesday.

Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Fay is in the central Atlantic fading away today. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is getting stronger, right now it has 60mph sustained winds.

Gonzalo Track

Gonzalo Track

Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow, and then become a Cat. 2 Hurricane with 110mph winds by Friday. Since we have a large trough and storm complex moving across the USA this week, that storm should help to force this storm on a more easterly track. Models are saying that this storm will stay out to sea, but impact Bermuda by Sunday. We  could see a swell from Gonzalo arrive next weekend.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson