Weather

Cold Punches

January 29th, 2015 at 8:11 am by under Weather

Like a fighter trying to get up off the mat, cold punches are going to keep knocking us down.  While there’s no long-term deep freeze in the extended forecast, we’ll keep getting these short jabs of cold.  It’s interesting because they have had record heat over the central U.S. lately. Today we started with cold temps.  Lows were in the teens and 20s through much of the region.  We did have a lot of sunshine this morning though.  An area of high pressure was moving from Hampton Roads to offshore.  Clouds were chasing behind it from the west.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Winds will turn out of the south today at about 5-10mph.  So high temperatures will get a chance to rise up to the low/mid 40s.  Notice there is a cold front over the Mississippi River Valley.  This will move quickly east.  We’ll see a few spotty showers ahead of it tonight with lows in the upper 30s.  By 5-8am tomorrow morning the front will be moving through the region.  Temps will start out in the upper 30s.  Early on they’ll rise to the low 40s.  Then the winds will pickup out of the northwest.  We’ll clear out, but temps will drop through the afternoon to the 30s.  Winds will drive northwest to southeast at about 10-20mph with a few gusts to 30mph near the shore.  So even during the day wind chills will be in the teens and 20s.  By Saturday morning lows will be in the teens and 20s again.  Then we’ll only see highs in the mid 30s during Saturday afternoon.  At least we’ll see sunshine.  By Sunday we’ll warm things up a bit again. Highs will be in the low/mid 40s.  However, moisture will return to the region. We’ll see scattered rain showers later in the day.  Yes this will be around during the evening.  So that will impact travel to any of your Super Bowl parties.

Rain will continue into Monday.  The models have trended a little colder for Monday.  At least the GFS model did.  So while most of the precipitation should fall as rain, we may see this turn into a wintry mix by later in the day.  Highs are expected to be in the 40s, but cold air will surge southward late.  The timing for this is key.  Still too early to pinpoint, but that’s what I’m seeing for now.  We’ll have a big update tomorrow as the models should start to come to more of an agreement.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Quiet And Cold

January 28th, 2015 at 8:06 am by under Weather

Our weather is much quieter today, but it is also very cold outside.  We started this morning with temps mostly in the 20s.  Through the day high temps will only rise to the upper 30s to near 40.  High pressure is building into the region from the west.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This will bring us plenty of sunshine today.  However the winds will be out of the northwest at 10-15mph with a few higher gusts.  This will create wind chills in the 20s.  Meanwhile the area of low pressure is still churning in the northeast states.

Northeast Storm

Northeast Storm

While some areas in the northeast (like New York) didn’t get it as bad as forecast, there were still huge problems in many other cities.  Today the storm will move off into the Canadian Maritimes.

Locally we’ll see quiet weather in the region for a few days.  It will be cold today, but a little better tomorrow. Highs will be in the low/mid 40s both Thursday and Friday.  By Friday night a cold front will move into the region.  This will drop Saturday’s high temperatures into the mid 30s.  We’ll warm up on Sunday with a chance for a few showers later in the day.  Then Monday looks warm with highs near 50.  There will be a chance for rain in the morning.  The GFS model continues to suggest that Monday will be warmer (near 60).  However, the European model is not as warm. Oh yeah, that’s the same model that people talked about a couple of days ago that had huge snow in the forecast.  It was way too early to mention it, and now it has really changed its tune.  At this time both models keep the precipitation late Sunday into Monday as RAIN.  Maybe a brief wintry mix, but no big snows.  Sorry!

There are a couple of good international stories to talk about.  The first one is a good blog from the folks at the Washington Post. It is a recent article about the drought in California.  It outlines the drought over the last 15 years.  It has a nice graphic that shows the different levels of drought through those years.  Here’s the article: California Drought.

The next article is one about the different international agencies and how they calculate global temperatures.  It’s pertinent as many of the agencies have reported that 2014 was the warmest year on record.  It’s an interesting read.  Here is the article from NASA: Agencies and global temperatures.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


The Accuracies and Inaccuracies of Forecasting Light Snow

January 27th, 2015 at 11:49 pm by under Uncategorized, Weather

The first picture is my final snowfall prediction from Monday night’s forecast. The second (blue-ish) picture is a radar estimate/depiction of the snow that actually fell; the darker the blue…the heavier the snow.

2Radar
I spoke about this a couple of times on the air today. I basically talked about the accuracies, but also the shortcomings of snowfall forecasts. The snow forecast for last night and this morning can be considered a pretty good one; We generally got the areas of heaviest snow in the right places. And we didn’t see any big surprises. In other words, no bigger than expected snow amounts. The prediction was for a dusting to two inches for the vast majority of the area (see 1st picture) and that’s pretty much what we got.

The only real tangible mistake on the forecast was that I predicted 2″ to 3″ of snow for much of the Eastern Shore…and that just didn’t happen. To understand my thinking from last night regarding heavier snow for the Eastern Shore, look to that area over the water…in the lower Bay (2nd picture). At the time that the forecast was put together, I was concerned about a heavier slug of snow (2″-3″) for the Eastern Shore. It was close, but no cigar! Only about a half mile west of Cape Charles over the water…but that part of the snowfall forecast was indeed a little off. The Eastern Shore generally got 1″ to 2″ of snow and NOT the 2″ to 3″ that was predicted.

There’s one other thing to note. On the forecast graphic you will note that snow totals are a bit more “broad-brushed” than the reality shown in the second graphic. This reflects the realities of forecasting snow…especially relatively lighter amounts. We simply cannot predict all the smaller details and variabilities that you see on the second graphic. It is simply the “state of the art”.

All in all, though…I was pretty happy with the snow forecast. A big thanks to meteorologists Tiffany Savona and Jeremy Wheeler for their collaboration and hard work. I hope that you were able to make good use of the snow forecast!


Mid-Morning Snow Update

January 27th, 2015 at 9:05 am by under Weather

The snow continues to fall across Hampton Roads and North Carolina this morning. There were reports of snow as far south as Kill Devil Hills along the OBX. A band of moderate to heavy snow managed to develop as expected around 6 AM. This band continued to push south across the region.

Radar at 6 AM

Radar at 6 AM

On average, most areas have seen about a dusting to 1 inch of snow. But some areas close to the Chesapeake Bay have seen anywhere between 1-2 inches of snow, so our snow totals forecast have been fairly accurate.

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

Right now it looks like some drier air is starting to push in from the north. That drier air will shut down the snow by 10-11 AM.

Future Trak at 9:30 AM

Future Trak at 9:30 AM

Check out this picture of snow on King Neptune this morning! This picture was submitted by Matthew Presler.

Submitted by: Matthew Presler

Submitted by: Matthew Presler

This is another beautiful picture of the snow in Virginia Beach sent in from Tracy.

Submitted by: Tracy

Submitted by: Tracy

We have received many of your snow photos through reportit@wavy.com, Facebook and Twitter. Our web team has put together a slideshow, so you can view all of the snow pictures there. Here are some pictures.

Temperatures will rise into the upper 30s this afternoon, so most, if not all, of the snow will melt. Keep in mind that the wind will be blowing out of the northwest at 10-15, so it will feel a little bit colder out there. Bundle up! Enjoy the snow while we have it!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Tuesday Morning Snow Update

January 27th, 2015 at 5:52 am by under Weather

Scattered snow showers are falling this morning.  It was coming down pretty good in some areas (dark blue):

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The snow was accumulating on grassy and elevated surfaces, but not too much on the roads.  Temperatures had dropped to 30-34 degrees.  There was some slushiness on the roads, but I don’t think we’ll see too many problems with travel this morning.  I’ve made a forecast map, but I’ve basically had to adjust it every half hour. This is because it is high based off of the local snow band that moved from north to south.

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

The snow showers will taper off by the mid-morning hours.  Then we’ll see lots of clouds.  Winds will run out of the north/northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph.  So temperatures will only rise to the upper 30s today.  Wind chills will be in the 20s.  We’ll clear out tonight. Temps will drop to the low/mid 20s.  Then tomorrow we’ll see sunshine. High temps will only be in the mid-upper 30s.

We will see some nuisance tidal flooding near the Chesapeake Bay by the mid afternoon hours.  Tides will run about 1-1.5 ft above normal.

I’ll post a blot with more info later this morning.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Monday Night Update

January 26th, 2015 at 6:38 pm by under Weather

Winds have shifted more northerly this evening as an area of low pressure begins to strengthen offshore. Winds will increase in speed and range anywhere from 15-25mph with gusts up to 30mph at times overnight. This means that temperatures will be dropping tonight as colder air moves into the region. As I write this, we are already down into the lower 40s. Temperatures should be in the mid 30s around midnight and then drop to around the freezing mark by tomorrow morning. A few rain showers will be possible this evening, but the rain should change over to snow around or slightly before midnight tonight from north to south. Scattered snow showers are possible at 2 AM.

Future Trak at 2 AM

Future Trak at 2 AM

Our latest Future Trak model has the snow continuing into 7 AM. The latest computer models show some higher totals right along the coast.

Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday

Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday

Keep in mind that our ground temperatures are in the low to mid 40s, so the snow may have a hard time accumulating on the roads. That would be a good thing. But the snow will gradually accumulate on grassy surfaces, cars, decks and bridges/underpasses. So watch out for slick spots on the bridges/overpasses early Tuesday morning. It would also be a good idea to find your ice scraper or a broom, so you can dust the snow off your car in the morning. Here is the latest thinking on potential snow totals overnight/Tuesday morning.

Tuesday Snow Totals

Tuesday Snow Totals

Tuesday Snow Totals

Tuesday Snow Totals

So this is not going to be a big storm for us. It will be a monster winter storm for New England, but just a nuisance for us. Enough snow to create some travel problems tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be rising into the upper 30s by Tuesday afternoon, so most of, if not all of, the the snow should melt. It won’t stick around for too long, but it should be a pretty sight if we do see any accumulations.

One last note! With strong northwesterly winds, water will be pushed down the Chesapeake Bay. This will result in a piling up of water along Southside Hampton Roads. So we could see nuisance to minor tidal flooding over the next few high tide cycles. The highest tide should be tomorrow morning at 2:30 AM when water levels are expected to be around 4.3 feet. Nuisance tidal flooding typically begins around 4 feet and the threshold for minor tidal flooding is 4.5 feet.

Sewells Point Tides Tuesday & Wednesday

Sewells Point Tides Tuesday & Wednesday

Remember to email your pictures to reportit@wavy.com and let us know how much snow you get on our Facebook page (WAVY TV 10) or tweet us @WAVY_Weather. Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have another update on WAVY News 10 at 10 PM on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Plus we are starting WAVY News 10 Today 30 minutes early to keep you posted on the weather. WAVY News 10 Today will begin at 4 AM tomorrow.

Click here to download our new Super Doppler 10 Weather App

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Finer Snow Details For Tuesday

January 26th, 2015 at 12:59 pm by under Weather

I think I’m starting to see a trend in the models.  Some of the wetter models have gotten drier.  One of the drier models stayed dry.  Then our local model came in with a wild upswing in amounts.  It’s totals went from a couple tenths of an inch this morning to 1-4″ by the late morning.  This wild swing was temporary though.  Still… it made me wonder what was going on.  I think I figured it out.  The GFS model has had a small area of heavy snow over the past few runs very close to the Chesapeake Bay.  Our local model then came in with a small area very similar in size and position.  The hi-res NAM also had a small burst of snow between about midnight and 5am near the Chesapeake Bay, but not as heavy as the others.  What I think is happening is that the models are suggesting that most of the region will see scattered light snow showers.  However, a small area of heavy snow looks to develop.

When I re-ran our local model it came up with a more reasonable solution.  Here is what it shows for 4am tomorrow morning.

Future Trak (4am)

Future Trak (4am)

Now I still think that temps will be just above freezing at that time.  Here are the forecast temperatures at 6am.

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Temperatures

The local heavy band of snow will try to drift southward.  During that time temps will fall to near freezing.  The scattered snow showers will try to accumulate, but the snow showers will become more scattered and light through the morning.

Future Trak (7am Tue)

Future Trak (7am Tue)

Therefore I believe a lot of the area will only see a dusting up to an inch, but there will be a local zone of higher amounts near the band.  Here is the latest map that I have for the snow forecast.

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

IF the band sets up, then we may have to drag down the pink area to a section of the Southside.  What may happen is that we’ll broad-brush the dusting up to an inch area for most of the region and then just put the words “locally higher”.  I almost took out the 2-3″ around Chincoteague.  That has been trending downward in the last couple of model runs.

-Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler


Tracking Some Snow

January 26th, 2015 at 9:06 am by under Weather

The operative word in the title is (Some).  The latest forecast trends are drier and drier.  You will hear about this historic snow storm all day, but remember it’s the 2-3 feet of snow in the northeast states that will be historic.  Not our local snow.  There are Winter Weather Advisories up from the National Weather Service for all of our Virginia cities and counties.  However, this area may change before tomorrow.  The weather is coming together to create a large area of low pressure over the Ohio River Valley.  It is accompanied by a large upper level dip in the jetstream (trough).  Both of these features are moving east.

Area Of Low Pressure

Area Of Low Pressure

The low has some very cold air behind it.  Today Hampton Roads is in the milder zone of temperatures.  In fact we’ll see high temperatures in the low 50s.  There may be a few times during the day when it is actually fairly nice out.  The rain chances through the day will be between 25-40%.  Not too high.  The rain chances will increase a bit this evening.  Overnight we’ll see the rain pick up in coverage.  Then after midnight the low will move to our east.  This will allow for strong northerly winds to rapidly increase. We could see some gusts between 25-30mph.  This will allow the temperatures to drop considerably.  They will drop to the low-mid 30s.  Between 2 and 4am we’ll see the rain start to change over to scattered snow showers.

Future Trak (4am Tue)

Future Trak (4am Tue)

A lot of what falls initially will melt.  The soil temperatures are in the low 40s.  The air temperatures between 4 and 7 am will mostly be above freezing (about 32-36 degrees).  So that will probably take away from the snow totals.  The latest forecast models have come in drier.  Our model has very light/scattered snow showers or even flurries between 5 and 11am.

Future Trak (9am Tue.)

Future Trak (9am Tue.)

Some of the other models are coming in even drier as well.  The NAM model (at the time of this writing) is very unimpressive.  The 4km NAM only shows one decent band of snow between midnight and 4am.  Then it just has some flurries.  The European model is also fairly dry with only light/scattered snow showers in the forecast.  It has very low amounts of snow. Just a couple tenths of an inch.  The GFS model is the only one that paints a decent amount of snow in the area (about 1-2″).  Course that doesn’t take into account how much would melt.  The reason that we are looking dry compared to the northeast is because we will actually be on the edge of the system.

Tuesday's Forecast

Tuesday’s Forecast

So here’s my latest snow forecast, but keep in mind it is trending downward.

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

I was going to give a tighter view, but since the models are changing so much I’ll hold off.  I think a dusting to an inch is going to be the norm with higher amounts to the north and east.  A lot of the models have more than 3″ up into Maryland and Delaware.  Some of the northeast states are talking about 20-30″ of snow.  Wow!  That would cripple northeast travel and a lot of air travel for a couple of days.  Locally we will dry out by Tuesday afternoon.  Highs will be in the upper 30s.  So even if snow does stick, then it will probably melt by the afternoon.  (Course that depends on how much sticks).

We may see some minor tidal flooding tonight into tomorrow, but it looks to be mostly nuisance tidal flooding.  1-1.5 ft above normal.  Here’s the latest tidal forecasts from the National Weather Service: Tide forecasts.

We will dry things out Tuesday night into Wednesday.  It will get cold too.  Lows will be in the 20s and highs will only be in the mid 30s.  We’ll warm to the 40s by Thursday.

Down the road the models are hinting at some heavy rain next Sunday.  It’s still early, but that is something that we definitely don’t need.  Stay tuned!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tuesday Snow Totals

January 25th, 2015 at 10:14 pm by under Weather

This is a time to be thankful we do not live in New England because our friends up north are looking at a major snowstorm Tuesday into Wednesday. We will be on the southern edge of this developing Nor’ Easter, so we could see some winter weather, but nothing like what they will see in the upcoming days. There are blizzard warnings in effect for coastal areas from New Jersey all the way up to Maine, including New York City and Boston. Travel WILL be impacted and flights are already being canceled across some of the nation’s biggest airports. These areas along the coast (covered by the dark blue area on the map below) could see anywhere from 1-3 feet of snow! Businesses and schools could be shut down for days. Power outages are likely with wind gusts over 50mph.

Tracking a Developing Nor'Easter

Tracking a Developing Nor’Easter

Since we will be on the southern edge of the storm we are only expecting light accumulations. But any snow could cause some travel problems across Hampton Roads early Tuesday morning. Let’s first talk about tomorrow. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s Monday afternoon. Talk about a mild day! Scattered RAIN showers will be possible Monday afternoon and evening.

Future Trak at 5 PM

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Colder air will move in Monday night on the backside of the low. Temperatures will be dropping into the 30s and that is when the rain will change over to snow from north to south. Temperatures will be around 32° Tuesday morning, so minor accumulations will be possible. Here is what our Future Trak model has at 7 AM Tuesday.

Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday

Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday

The snow will accumulate on grassy surfaces, decks, cars, bridges and overpasses first. The snow may not accumulate on the roads at first because the ground temperatures could be too warm. Keep in mind that we will be in the 50s tomorrow. Our Future Trak computer model is the wettest model right now. Some other computer models don’t have much snow at all, indicating that drier air will be moving in from the northwest, so lack of moisture could be an issue. If that is the case, then we may not see any snow accumulation at all. So this forecast is subject to change. After looking at all of the guidance, here is my latest forecast snow total map.

Tuesday Snow Totals

Tuesday Snow Totals

It will be cold and breezy on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Winds will be strong out of the northwest at 10-20mph, gusting higher at times. This could result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding for Sewells Point, which is a good benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads. Northwest winds will push the water down the Bay causing the water levels to increase during high tide Tuesday and Wednesday.

Nuisance to Minor Tidal Flooding Possible

Nuisance to Minor Tidal Flooding Possible

I will have another update on WAVY News 10 at 10 PM on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Tune in!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 


Short Update On Upcoming Snow

January 25th, 2015 at 8:41 pm by under Uncategorized, Weather

The forecast models have come into better agreement as to the snowfall for Monday night into Tuesday. As you’ll see, the models are not in complete agreement quite yet…but it is reasonable to expect that we will see accumulating snow into the region. Virginia’s Northern Neck and Accomack County on the Eastern Shore are likely to receive the most snow (possibly 5″ in northern Accomack). Areas along the western and southern shores of the Chesapeake Bay are likely to receive 1″ to 3″ of snow. We’ll be able to fine-tune this a bit better as the storm draws closer tomorrow. As I mentioned yesterday, this is not likely to be “the big one”, but there is likely to be enough snow to affect traffic and may close businesses and schools.

Yesterday, the EURO model was predicting huge amounts of snow for the Eastern Shore (7″-9″!) and more significant amounts for the Hampton Roads cities, too. In my blog post yesterday, I had pointed out that the EURO was an outlier–predicting too much snow–and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Well, today the EURO backed off considerably for our part of the world. Here are two screen-grabs of the EURO…one fairly local and another for the Northeast U.S.:

EURO12

E COAST_EUROYou will note that the New York and Boston areas are just gonna’ get hammered with snow (24″+).

Here’s a look at the GFS model on a regional, then East Coast scale:

GFS18GFS_EASTYou will note that the GFS has a greater concentration of snow for areas west of I-95 and on into the Charlottesville area. It also has less snow for the Eastern Shore. The wider view shows Boston getting hit with heavier snow (18″-24″), but New York getting around 8″ to 10″.

While the forecast models are not yet in total agreement, they do agree on a couple of things:

(a). We’ll see some accumulating snow.

(b). For the vast majority of us, the total accumulated snow will be a relatively small amount (dusting to 2″).

That’s still enough to “shut us down”, though. Stay tuned!