A very active pattern is setting up the next couple of weeks.  The jet stream will be split into two wind streams…a southern one that will bring moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean and a northern one that will bring cold weather from Canada.  It would be surprising if we *did not* receive more winter precipitation sometime in the next two weeks.

The next event I am watching closely is for Friday and Saturday (February 5-6th).  The pattern is very similar to the setup from last weekend.  A low pressure system will travel from Southern California through Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico during the week and then track south of us later Friday and Saturday.  Cold high pressure north and west of the region will supply the area with a fresh shot of Canadian air.  Water temps of 37 degrees will help.  It’s too early to tell how much snow verses rain or even sleet we may get this far out but it looks very interesting…stay tuned!

Meteorologist Jon Cash

This is a quick blog before I go to bed so that you folks don’t think that I’m not monitoring things.  Don Slater may post a blog on here a little later too.  The models are still showing a good chance for snow across the region.  Both the GFS and NAM models are consistently showing a strong high to the north that will reinforce the cold air.  A moderate low will stay well south of the area until it moves offshore Saturday night.  It seems that the models have trended a little further south over the last couple of runs.  I’ll admit I haven’t looked at the Canadian or Navy model tonight.  I will tomorrow morning though.  A lot of the precip that we will see will be from overrunning.  This could create a narrow band of freezing rain, but I can’t determine where that would set up.  Also, there is a potential here for dry air to come in and limit the snow in our northern sections.  So let’s keep that in mind.  The snow hope is still at an 8 for me.  It’s good (for snow lovers) to see that the models have not flip-flopped as of yet.  This does have the potential to be a big event.  I still can’t give specific predictions for amounts.  Tomorrow things will be in range that will allow my tools to start estimating.  NAM fous data, Futuretrak, National Weather Service’s grid points, etc. 

  Yes a lot of big stuff happens when Jon is out of town.  I’ve covered a lot of snow, severe, and tropical events while he’s been away.  And besides a lack of sleep, I’m looking forward to covering this one….zzzzzzzzzzzz

You can look at my previous blog for my overall thoughts from the earlier model runs. I’ll blog again in the morning probably during the 2nd hour of WAVY news or shortly after that. 

I spoke with Don earlier and there is a potential for inland (vague for now) areas to especially get hit hard.  Inland North Carolina could see some very heavy snow as well as inland Virginia.  Again, I’ll be more specific tomorrow.  Have a good night.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

As of 11:00 PM, we’ve got a narrow stripe of moderately heavy rain from near Ahoskie, North Carolina northeastward through southern Chesapeake to near the resort strip in Virginia Beach.

Most areas have only seen a steady light rain during the evening (around .20″ to .40″), but that stripe of heavier rain is likely to continue moving northward & northeastward through around 2:00 AM. We could see around 1″ to 1.5″ of rain out of that one little “stripe” of rain.

Rain should tend to taper off considerably by around sunrise. We’ll see a few off and on showers for Friday.

The northeast wind is picking up and should peak at around 20-30 mph overnight and through the first half of Friday.

Temperatures should hold in the low 40s overnight, rise into the mid 40s early Friday, then drop into the upper 40s for Friday afternoon.

Oh boy!

On Monday, December 21,  I visited Crestwood Middle School in Chesapeake. I was invited to talk to the 6th graders about bullying.

It’s a popular topic these days with young people and social networking plays a big part.  I told them about my experience with bullying as a child and I also showed them a story I did with a local teen who had a bright future, but who took her own life after being picked on by other students.

I gave them some tips on what they can do if they are bullied or see someone else being bullied.  The big thing is to find an adult- a teacher, parent, relative or resource officer- and tell them what’s going on.   I also told them to be careful about what they post on internet sites and send to others via text message.  It was a wonderful discussion that generated great questions.

I thought I’d have trouble keeping them engaged- especially since it was Christmas week, but this was one of the most well-mannered groups of students I’ve visited.  They also gave me some cool gifts that included a Crestwood tee shirt and a snowman light!

Thank you,  Crestwood!

As temperatures cool significantly over the next 24 hours, it may start to “feel” a lot more like the holidays.  If the cold weather doesn’t put you in the holiday spirit, perhaps the holiday lights will!

Thanks to everyone who submitted an entry for our Holiday Lights Contest on wavy.com. The photos are wonderful!  Our panel of judges have selected the top 10 finalists.  Now it is your time to view the top 10 photos and vote for your favorite here: 

The 5 photos with the highest votes will be our “top 5,” and our panel of judges will then select a winner.  I’ll announce the winner during WAVY News 10 at 6PM on Saturday.  I’ll broadcast live from the winning house on Monday, December 21st. 

Thanks for voting!  Good luck to all of our finalists! 

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

Winter Heating Safety Tips

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA: – Cold temperatures typically increase the number of fatal home fires.  The United States Fire Administration confirms this with a 2007 report that shows a rise in the number of people killed during cooler months compared to warmer months. 

One likely explanation for the escalation in fatal fires is the heavy use of fuel-fired appliances, such as fireplaces, wood stoves, and furnaces during winter months.  While heating systems can malfunction despite being serviced, many of the incidents are attributed to poor maintenance, which means that heating related fires during cooler months can be prevented.    

The key to preventing heating related fires is proper maintenance.  You may also want to adopt the following safety tips to protect your family and household: 

Heating – Keep Fireplaces and Wood Stoves Clean

• Have your chimney or wood stove inspected and cleaned annually by a certified chimney specialist.
• Clear the area around the hearth of debris, decorations and flammable materials.
• Kerosene heaters may not be permitted in certain areas.  If you use a kerosene heater, use only the recommended fuel.  Always refuel outdoors safely away from your home.  Allow the heater to cool before refueling and only refuel outdoors.
• Just like its name, space heaters need space.  Remember to keep all combustibles at least three feet away from each heater. When buying a space heater, look for control features, such as automatic shut-off and tip-over shut-off.

Protecting the Inside/Outside of Your Home

• Stack firewood outdoors at least 30 feet away from your home.
• Keep the roof clear of leaves, pine needles and other debris.
• Cover the chimney with a mesh screen spark arrester.
• Remove branches hanging above the chimney, flues or vents.
• Install smoke alarms on every level of your home.  Test them monthly and change the batteries at least twice a year.  Consider installing the new long life smoke alarms.
• Provide proper venting systems for all heating equipment.

It was a cold rainy day in Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina on Saturday.  If you wanted accumulating snow, you would have had to drive well to the north and west.

From Jessica, student at JMU inHarrisonburg, VA

Here are some snow totals I found from today:

Harrisonburg  5.5″

Blacksburg  3.9″

Fairfax  3.5″

Roanoke  2.3″

Springfield  2.0″

Charlottesville  1.5″

Look for full sunshine and chilly temperatures on Sunday.  Have a great night!

Meteorologist Cheryl Nelson

Will try to update when I can. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 4:00 AM for virtually our entire area.

Midnight: A skinny band of very strong storms extends south from Richmond along I-95 to near Emporia, VA. This area has big potential to be pretty nasty. But it has yet to enter our area. Watching this one closely.

Another bigger area of mostly weaker thunderstorms is widely clustered across virtually all of eastern North Carolina. While this area is not well-defined and is weaker now…any of these individual storms has the potential to strengthen very rapidly.

No warnings as of this time, but that could change!!

12:47 AM: The very strong line of thunderstorms that I mentioned previously is hanging in there and now passing east of I-95 from east of Richmond to near Emporia. This is still the area to watch!

The clusters of thunderstorms in North Carolina are generally weakening in strength. However, there is one strong area moving rapidly northeastward through the Nags Head & Manteo areas. Kitty Hawk & Kill Devil Hills are next…and soon! No warnings , though. I do expect that the threat for N.E. North Carolina should diminish after 1:00 AM.

Just a quick mention as to where we get these Watches and Warnings. Watches are issued by the “Storm Prediction Center” of the National Weather Service. Watches are issued for a wide area…with the indication that severe thunderstorms and/or tornadoes could develop. Severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings are issued by the local National Weather Service Office in Wakefield, VA. Warnings are issued for a small area and for a short time-frame when a specific storm is identified as a threat.

The sum total of all the above is to tell you that we do not issue Warnings or Watches…they come from the National Weather Service. And that’s good for public safety! Could you imagine the chaos if each and every media outlet were issuing their own conflicting Watches and Warning?

1:25 AM: Nasty thunderstorms headed through Virginia’s Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck! No warnings at this point, though. These could approach northern Accomack County on Virginia’s Eastern Shore within about an hour.

The storms over eastern North Carolina have become more widely scattered and weaker. The Tornado Watch may end up being cancelled a bit early here…but not yet.

Not a great deal of lightning or hail out of these storms so far tonight. Wind and brief, torrential rain appear to be the biggest threats…especially the wind within any storms.

2:15 AM: The storms over the Northern Neck weakened very rapidly as they moved closer to the Bay. They’re also moving up into Maryland and posing no real threat.

Likewise for pretty much all other storms in the region since my last post. Yay! There are still quite a few skinny little NE to SW lines of storms; none of these has shown any signs of significant development.

A reminder that you can always see our radar here.

The Tornado Watch has been whittled away at its western side as storms have moved eastward. Frankly, I don’t think that the Watch will continue until 4:00 AM. The strongest thunderstorms have either moved out of the region or are weakening quite steadily. We’ll wait for the final word from the Storm Prediction Center, though; they tend to be ultra-cautious.

2:35 AM: I was just going to type, “When are they gonna’ cancel this Watch?”…I looked over at another computer…and bingo! The Watch has been cancelled!

There are still a few scattered thunderstorms in the region, but they’re not likely to reach severe limits (57 mph winds). It’ll still be somewhat windy overnight (25-35 mph), but nothing too dangerous.

Have a good night, all.

-Don

Tuesday night’s ring around the moon is actually a very common occurrence…perhaps, a couple of times per month. It happens when high, thin clouds overspread the area as the moon is high in the sky. Those high, thin clouds are actually ice crystals…which reflect & refract the moon’s light…creating the “halo” effect.

Here’s a bit more of a technical explanation from Wikipedia.

Very often, high, thin clouds signal the approach of lower cloudiness and rainy weather. That is certainly the case for Wednesday. We’ll continue to see the clouds get thicker and lower…finally giving way to rain by mid-afternoon.

Meteorologist Don Slater

The new forecast is for the high tide this evening to hit 7.5 feet above mean low water level or average low tide. Stick a ruler in that water and measure up 7.5 feet…that’s how high the water should go this evening. This morning it hit 6.7 feet..so a good 10 inches higher…and compare that to 7.9 feet for Isabel…and that’s only a few inches below Isabel! Here’s the deal. The current near shore wind during the early morning hours is 50-60 mph. I believe those winds will decrease slightly through the afternoon…if they don’t…then that wind will push even more water into the coastal zones and the flood could come too close to Isabel levels. Stay tuned on this one.
Jon Cash