Well we know that the 2013 Hurricane Season was a quiet one, there are many factors why this season didn’t pan out.
NOAA put out a bold forecast which agreed with many other hurricane forecasters earlier in the spring. While we did meet the forecast for named storms at 13, we did not see the amount of hurricanes predicted. (Which is a good thing!) This year was advertised to be a very active season…so what happened?
1. Dry air off of the coast of Western Africa
These large airmasses of dry air moving to the west over the Atlantic Ocean helped to inhibit the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes during the early months of the season (June-August)
2. High amounts of Wind Shear
See the black arrows on the left, think of those as wind speeds. The higher you are in the atmosphere, the stronger the wind. Now if you want the development of severe weather like squall lines or supercells, then you want wind shear. If you want to develop a hurricane, wind shear will rip apart a storm.
These are two of the biggest reasons why this hurricane season was a “bust” and over-forcasted. In fact, this hurricane season had the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982!
Tropical Storm Andrea was the only storm that made landfall in the USA. Most of the storms stayed out to sea. Two storms did impact Mexico. Some people have been asking me if this may correlate to a higher chance of seeing winter weather and more snow this season. While the quick answer is “no”. There is something important to consider. We did have a cool fall, that cooler air did keep a few storms offshore, if we have colder temperatures in place there is a higher chance for seeing more snow this year compared to average. (Which I believe it will be a cooler than normal winter) The average amount of snow we see across Hampton Roads is close to 8 inches.
At this point our weather should remain calm with no snowstorms or hurricanes on the horizon.
Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson