Tiffany Savona WAVY

It’s Spring…Where Is The Warm Weather?!

March 22nd, 2015 at 9:15 pm by under Weather

Spring officially began Friday night…so it should be getting warmer right?! Well, not yet! Don’t put away all of your winter clothes, because the unseasonably cooler weather is going to stick around for a few days. The reason…the weather pattern. There has been a dip in the jet stream across the Eastern half of the U.S., which correlates to temperatures below average. We will eventually see a warm-up by the middle of the week, but it will be extremely short-lived.

The clouds will move back in overnight and the northeasterly winds will pick up in speed as a storm system passes to our south. Most of the rain will stay to our south, but we can’t rule out the chance for a few showers moving across the Outer Banks tonight/early Monday morning.

Rain Moving East

Rain Moving East

Rain chances are small because we are very dry at the surface, but some of the hi-resolution computer models have some light rain developing from Kill Devil Hills down to Hatteras Island early Monday morning. Temperatures will only drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s by Monday morning with the increase in cloud cover. As that large storm system to our south moves offshore, the clouds will clear out from north to south across Hampton Roads Monday afternoon. It will stay cool with highs in the low/mid 40s along the coast with upper 40s inland.

Monday's Highs

Monday’s High Temperatures

A gradual warm-up is expected as we wait for our next cold front front to arrive.

Temperatures Trend

Temperature Trend

Thursday will be the warmest day of the week, but you won’t be able to enjoy it because showers will develop along a cold front that afternoon. We may even see an isolated thunderstorm. Then it’s back to the cooler weather Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Highs this upcoming weekend will only be in the 40s! Right now, the computer models are hinting at the possibility of an area of low pressure developing along the front Friday into Saturday. If this pans out, then the rain will continue Friday and Saturday as well. Stay tuned for updates!

One last side note…a lot of folks have been wondering if we are frost free? My answer to that is no, not yet. I know many of you want to get outside and start planting in your garden. There is still a chance temperatures could drop to 32° this week, so some of your sensitive plants could be damaged if planted too early. Here is a map that shows the average date of the last frost across Virginia and North Carolina.

Average Date of the Last Frost

Average Date of the Last Frost

Remember these dates are just averages. That means we could see frost and freezing temperatures after these dates too.

Have a great week!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Rain Chances Going Up!

March 18th, 2015 at 9:02 pm by under Weather

As expected, we were about 20-30 degrees cooler today as highs only reached the upper 40s and lower 50s across the region. Winter has returned and will not loosen its grip on Hampton Roads for at least the next 7 days. Temperatures are going to stay below the average of 59° thanks to a large dip in the jet stream across the Eastern U.S. So…don’t put the winter gear away just yet!

Wind speeds have finally come down and with mostly clear conditions, temperatures are going to drop quickly tonight. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s on average. With a deck of high, thin, clouds moving in after midnight, temperatures may actually rise a little bit into the upper 30s by Thursday morning. If you have any plants that are sensitive to the cold, bring them inside tonight. Not all locations will drop to 32°, but it will be close. The kids will need the winter coat and the gloves at the bus stop tomorrow morning.

Forecast Low Temperatures

Forecast Low Temperatures

I don’t think you will need to bring the umbrella to work with you tomorrow, since most of your Thursday will be dry. Expect increasing clouds with highs only in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Rain could move in anytime after 7 PM.

Future Trak at 7 PM Thursday

Future Trak at 7 PM Thursday

Rain will become more widespread Thursday night into Friday morning and could be heavy at times. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s Friday morning. It will be a chilly, soggy day with highs only around 50°.

Future Trak at 7 AM Friday

Future Trak at 7 AM Friday

Rain should become more scattered Thursday afternoon and eventually taper off Friday night. Rain totals should range between 0.75 to 1 inch on average with higher totals possible across North Carolina. The weekend is looking much better…drier, warmer with more sunshine! Highs will be in the upper 50s on Saturday and mid 50s on Sunday.

Stay warm and dry everyone!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Earthquake, Record Snow, Warm Weather

March 15th, 2015 at 9:10 pm by under Weather

The U.S. Geological Survey says a magnitude 2.8 earthquake struck around 3 AM. The epicenter was about 6 miles south of Louisa, which is a town northwest of Richmond.

Louisa Earthquake

Louisa Earthquake

This was a minor quake, but some people did feel the shaking. No injuries or damage have been reported. One interesting note…this recent earthquake was very close to the epicenter of the magnitude 5.8 earthquake back in August of 2011. Major damage and several injuries were reported in Mineral, a town in Louisa County, which was closest to the epicenter. The 2011 earthquake also caused damage to the Washington Monument in DC. Louisa County falls within the Central Virginia Seismic Zone. This seismic zone has many known faults and many unknown faults, so it’s always difficult to determine what fault caused an earthquake in Virginia. Most of the earthquakes reported in Virginia are minor.

As the title suggests…onto Record SNOW! As of 7 PM, an additional 2.9″ of snow fell in Boston. Boston has now broken the record for the SNOWIEST SEASON EVER WITH 108.6″ OF SNOW SO FAR!

Boston Breaks Record For Snowiest Season EVER

Boston Breaks Record For Snowiest Season EVER

Now…how about more on our local weather. Well…all is quiet and warm for now. It was a sunny, but breezy Sunday. Some winds gusts were over 30mph. Wind speeds should come down tonight. With clear conditions and light winds, temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to around 40°. It will be a chilly start to your Monday, but we will warm up quickly. Highs will be in the upper 60s with some lower 70s inland Monday afternoon. Tuesday will be even warmer out ahead of our next cold front. It will feel more like May with highs in the mid 70s. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a couple of inland spots hit 80°. A strong cold front will move through Hampton Roads Tuesday evening. The front may spark off an isolated shower, but most locations will stay dry. Temperatures will drop a good 20-25 degrees on Wednesday. Highs will only be in the 40s and lows will be in the 30s!

Temperature Trend

Temperature Trend

Our next storm system will bring rain chances back to the forecast Thursday afternoon. Rain looks to continue for most of the day on Friday too. Spring is right around the corner! Spring officially begins at 6:45 PM Friday. Don’t put away the winter coat just yet, because you will need it later this week, especially in the mornings.

Have a good week!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Pi Day, Sunny Sunday Ahead!

March 14th, 2015 at 8:39 pm by under Weather

Happy Pi Day everyone! This year, Pi Day is extra special, because all of the digits in today’s date match the number Pi. Pi (represented by the Greek letter omega) is the ratio of the circumference of a circle to its diameter. Pi is an infinite number, which means it never ends or repeats. For simple mathematical calculations, pi is usually rounded to 3.14. At precisely, 9:26:53 tonight, even more digits will match pi! I think Deanna and I will celebrate by eating some pie at that exact time. :)

Happy Pi Day!

Happy Pi Day!

Now what does pi have to do with weather….well…pi is used in mathematical calculations. And you have to study a lot of math and science to become a meteorologist. So… now onto the weather. Rain has ended across Hampton Roads. Most locations saw anywhere from 0.5 to 1 inch of rain. That puts us right on track for the month of March with a total of 1.74 inches of rain.

Today's Rain Totals

Today’s Rain Totals

We are going to hold onto a slight chance for a few more light showers before midnight. A weak cold front (wind shift line) is going to move through the region before midnight and some of the hi-resolution models have more showers developing between 9 PM-12 AM. If the rain develops, it will be very light and scattered, so I think many places will stay dry. Expect partial clearing overnight with low temperatures dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Sunday will be a few degrees cooler overall and much drier. Highs will be around 60° with some mid 60s possible across some inland areas. The weather is looking great for the  One City Marathon in Newport News. Just a little bit chilly in the morning, then warming up nicely by the late morning hours. The humidity levels will be much lower compared to what we saw today, which is great news for everyone participating in these events. Good luck to all the runners out there!

One City Marathon Forecast

One City Marathon Forecast – Newport News

The warm weather will continue Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid 60s. Spring officially begins Friday, March 20th at 6:45 PM.  But we can’t say we are done with the colder weather just yet because we are looking at another big cool down by the end of the week. A strong cold front will move into Hampton Roads Tuesday night and bring much colder air back to the region. Highs will drop into the upper 40s and lows will plummet into the 30s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will go back up Thursday and Friday as our next storm system moves into the region.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Feeling Like Spring!

March 8th, 2015 at 8:47 pm by under Weather

It felt more like spring this weekend across Hampton Roads! We did lose an hour of sleep, but we were able to enjoy the sunshine until the sun set at 7:05 this evening. High temperatures were in the mid to upper 60s earlier this afternoon. Lots of people took advantage of the warm weather by spending sometime outside and getting their cars washed. Luckily for us, the warm weather will stick around for a few more days. Check out this graphic below. The green bars show the high temperatures recorded from last Monday through Friday. The orange bars represent my forecast for this upcoming work week from Monday through Friday.

Last Week vs. This Week

Last Week vs. This Week

Overall, this week is going to be much warmer than last week. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s Monday through Wednesday. Then we cool back down into the 40s Thursday and Friday behind our next cold front. At least we will see temperatures closer to the average high of 56° this time of year. Over the past few weeks, we have been on a roller coaster ride of temperatures with lots of peaks and valleys. This week, it is going to be all about those rain chances bouncing up and down. More on that in a minute.

Monday will be dry with decreasing clouds and highs in the mid 60s on average. But with light winds, a sea breeze will likely develop during the afternoon. That means that winds will turn more northeasterly off the water and bring in some cooler air. Water temperatures are only in the upper 30s. So areas close to the water such as, Norfolk, Virginia Beach, the OBX, Hampton, Poquoson and the Eastern Shore, could see highs in the lower 60s around midday, but then drop into the 40s/50s just a few hours later. Inland areas will be warmer and will likely see highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Clouds will continue to increase Monday night into Tuesday out ahead of our next storm system developing to our south. A few showers will be possible during the afternoon north of the metro, but most areas will remain dry. Rain should become more widespread late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning as a warm front moves northward through Hampton Roads. Rain will be scattered on Wednesday, since most of the energy from the storm system will stay to our north. That warm front will then move back south as a cold front Wednesday night. Highs will still be in the lower 60s on Wednesday, but we should cool back down into the 40s Thursday and Friday.

Another storm system will move our way and bring rain chances back to the forecast Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Keep that umbrella close by this week!

Rain Chances This Week

Rain Chances This Week

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Here We Go Again!

March 4th, 2015 at 5:56 pm by under Weather

After a taste of spring today, it will be back to reality tomorrow. Winter returns with a vengeance! A cold front will be moving into the region tonight, so expect temperatures to gradually drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s by tomorrow morning. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for areas from Williamsburg and points northward from 6 AM Thursday to 12 AM Friday.

Winter Weather Advisory

Winter Weather Advisories

These areas in purple have the highest chances of seeing minor snow accumulations because these areas will be colder and will probably see the mix change over to ALL snow at some point. Let me explain. Let’s talk about tonight first. Rain will develop north of metro after 9 PM and then spread southward overnight. Rain is likely tomorrow morning as temperatures will be hovering in the upper 30s and lower 40s at that point. Here is what Future Trak has at 7 AM.

Future Trak 2

Notice how the changeover from rain to a mix of rain/sleet/snow starts around 12 PM, if not a little bit earlier across our northern zones.

Future Trak at 12 PM Thursday

Future Trak at 12 PM Thursday

That mix line will move southward into the metro area before the evening commute, so your commute WILL BE impacted.

Future Trak at 5 PM Thursday

Future Trak at 5 PM Thursday

Any snow/sleet that mixes in and falls with the rain will melt as it falls to the ground. Keep in mind that the roads and sidewalks will be wet. So we are thinking that most of the snow should melt on contact. Notice that the mix has changed over to all snow for Williamsburg, the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and the Eastern Shore. These areas could see some minor accumulations and some of the snow may stick to the roads initially if the snow comes down heavy enough. The wintry weather will taper off from north to south Thursday night and should end by midnight for everyone.

There are some computer models out there that have a colder and wetter solution, indicating higher snow totals. But a computer model can not predict what happens when the snow hits the ground (whether it accumulates or melts). Plus the ground temperatures probably warmed up a little bit today after seeing temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Northern zones only saw highs in the 50s, so not much of a warm-up there. We take everything into consideration and make our forecast. Here is our latest thinking.

Snow Forecast

Thursday Snow Forecast

North Carolina: Expect mostly rain with some sleet mixing in during the afternoon.
Southside: Morning rain changing over to a mix of rain/sleet/snow during the afternoon. Any snow that falls with rain or sleet will melt once it hits the ground. There is a small window where the Southside could see all snow late in the day. If so, we could see a dusting to 1″ on grassy areas, decks and cars. Inland counties could see a little bit more. I think roads will just be wet, instead of snow covered.
Peninsula: Expect morning rain, changing over to a mix of rain/sleet/snow and then changing over to all snow. 1-2 inches will be possible, but mainly on grassy areas, decks and cars. I think most roads will be wet.
Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, Eastern Shore: Early morning rain changing over to a rain/sleet/snow mix around Noon, then changing over to ALL snow during the afternoon. At this point, the snow will accumulate and it could cover the roads if the snow comes down heavy enough. 2-3 inches are possible with isolated higher totals if the change over to all snow happens a bit earlier in the day.

Some of you may have seen images showing more snow for your city on social media. Just remember…these images are usually the output of just 1 computer model run. These images do not represent a forecast. We look at many computer models to make a forecast and each model updates several times a day. Bottom line: This is NOT going to be a BIG storm for us. YES, it will impact your evening commute and could slow you down, especially across our northern zones. The bigger story will be the COLD weather returning! In a 24-hour period, temperatures will drop a good 30-40 degrees. That is a HUGE drop. Some folks have asked what the biggest temperature drop is here in Hampton Roads. I asked the National Weather Service in Wakefield the same question. They told me that last March 2-3, temperatures dropped from 72° t0 28°. That is a 44° drop in less than 24 hours. Another notable time was back on December 15, 1901, when temperatures dropped from 69° to 22° in a 24-hour period. That is a 47° drop!

Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s by Friday morning, so any slush or standing water will re-freeze tomorrow night. We may have some icy spots Friday morning and wind chill values will be in the single digits. So take your winter coat and your winter boots back out of the closet! Highs Friday afternoon will only rise to around 30°. Warmer weather arrives by the weekend!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


From Spring To Winter In 24 Hours

March 3rd, 2015 at 9:05 pm by under Weather

We have a little bit of everything in the forecast over the next few days. From spring to winter in just a 24-hour period. First, I’m tracking the chance for rain overnight. Another batch of rain should move in as warmer air moves in from the southwest behind a warm front. Our Future Trak has been consistent on bringing the rain in just before midnight.

Future Trak at 12 AM

Future Trak at 12 AM

Rain will quickly move out and temperatures will continue to rise overnight. Patchy fog may develop in some areas as temperatures rise into the upper 40s/lower 50s early Wednesday morning. Give the kids a light jacket tomorrow instead of the heavy winter coat. It will feel more like spring tomorrow afternoon with highs around 70° across the Southside and North Carolina and highs in the 60s from the Peninsula northward. A great day to grab lunch outside or to take a walk during your lunch break. Just watch out for those breezy southwest winds blowing at 15-20mph.

Wednesday Temperatures

Wednesday Temperatures

A strong cold front will slowly move through Hampton Roads from north to south Wednesday evening. Temperatures will drop a good bit once the front moves through, but the really cold air will lag behind the front. The upper level winds are going to be running parallel to the cold front, which is going to slow its movement and slow the arrival of the cold air. Rain will develop behind the front and slowly fill in across Virginia and North Carolina Wednesday night. The precipitation at this point will fall in the form as rain since temperatures will still be in the upper 30s and lower 40s at 7 AM Thursday.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Future Trak at 7 AM Thursday

As colder air moves in behind the front, the rain will change over to a mix of wet snow and sleet (purple area on Future Trak) by 3 PM. Notice that rain is still falling across North Carolina and areas just north of the state line. The mix has moved south into the Peninsula and Southside. The Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and Eastern Shore will see the mix change over to ALL snow. These areas have the best chances for seeing accumulating snow.

Future Trak  at 3 PM Thursday

Future Trak at 3 PM Thursday

Here are some key things to remember. The snow will probably melt once it hits the wet roads and sidewalks. If we do see any accumulations, it would likely be on grassy areas, decks and cars. Once again the chance for rain and sleet will really cut down on snow totals. It seems like most computer models are coming in with a warmer and drier solution. If this trend continues, then we may need to bring snow totals down even more. However, there are still some models that are wetter and colder and we can’t discount them just yet. With that in mind, here is my snow totals forecast. I’m leaning toward the warmer and drier solutions based on the set-up of this storm system. I just don’t think the cold air is going to be here in time to really allow the snow to accumulate.

Thursday Snow Forecast

Thursday Snow Forecast

Bottom line: This is not going to be a big storm for us, but it will impact your Thursday evening commute. If we see more sleet, then we could see some minor ice accumulation. Right now it looks like the sleet would be mixing in with rain and wet snow. The wintry mix will taper off Thursday night. Any standing water or slush will freeze Thursday night into Friday morning because temperatures will drop into the 20s. So expect some slick spots early Friday morning, especially on bridges and overpasses. Friday will be dry with highs in the lower 30s.

Snow totals will change over the next 24 hours, so stay tuned! I will have more on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


February 2015 – Going Down In The Record Books

March 1st, 2015 at 9:33 pm by under Weather

February of 2015 is going down in the record books for being the 3rd COLDEST February since record keeping started in the 1800s! The graphic below shows the high temperatures from February 1 through February 28. Notice that temperatures were WAY BELOW average for more than half the month.

February High Temperatures

February High Temperatures

Being so cold, it was only fitting that we broke 4 temperature records. This February will also go down as being the 7th snowiest on record. The Norfolk Airport recorded 11.5 inches of snow for the month. Keep in mind that you may have seen more snow at your house. All of our climate data is taken from observations at the Norfolk Airport.

Today (March 1st) is the first day of Meteorological Spring. Meteorologists define seasons based on the annual temperature cycle. Each season consists of a group of 3 months. The winter months are December, January and February, otherwise known as the coldest months of the year. This makes it easier to keep seasonal data because the dates never change. This year, astronomical spring begins on March 20th, which is based on the position of the Earth in relation to the sun.

So far…it has been a cold and dreary start to March. Highs were only in the 30s today and we saw a mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain most of the day. The rain will taper off before midnight, but fog will likely develop overnight and could reduce visibilities in the morning. Monday will be a drier, FINALLY! Expect clouds and fog in the morning. A cold front will move through the region around midday and switch our winds, allowing drier air to move into the region. The clouds will clear out and the sun will be out with highs in the low to 40s. The weather pattern will remain very unsettled this week, meaning lots of rain chances are in the forecast. Most days this week will be chilly, with Wednesday being an exception.

Temperature Trend

Temperature Trend

Don’t get too excited for the 60s because we are tracking the chance for rain Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday could get interesting. A very strong cold front will move into the region Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Rain will develop behind the front. As colder air moves in, the rain will change over to sleet and snow. Accumulations are possible, especially for areas north of the metro. It’s still too early for numbers, so stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Freezing Rain Sunday Morning?

February 28th, 2015 at 10:16 pm by under Weather

First off…today we tied the record for the COLDEST February 28th EVER! Back on February 28, 1934, the high at the Norfolk Airport was only 30°. Today, the high temperature at the Norfolk Airport was 30°. Average high this time of year is 54°! February has been a very cold month and it looks like it will be one of the coldest on record. I will have more on that in my blog tomorrow.

Highs Today

Highs Today

I’m tracking another disturbance to our south that will merge with an area of low pressure to our west to bring us the chance for rain on Sunday. One problem…if the rain moves in during the early morning hours, then we could have freezing rain because temperatures will still be in the 20s at that point. So it will be a battle of the rain vs. the temperature. I don’t think we will have a widespread freezing rain event, but I think a few spots could see freezing rain between 7 AM-12 PM tomorrow morning. Here are the areas at risk.

Freezing Rain Possible In Pink Areas

Freezing Rain Possible In Pink Areas

Our Future Trak model has some light freezing rain moving in around 8 AM for some of our inland and northern areas.

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

If you see any freezing rain, then you may have a light coating of ice on your car in the morning. There may also be some slick spots on bridges and overpasses. If you have a garage or a carport, I suggest moving your car into your garage or under your carport tonight. This will keep you from having to scrape the ice off your car just in case you see freezing rain.

Future Trak has some lingering freezing rain over the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck around Noon.

Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 12 PM Sunday

The wintry precipitation will change over to rain as temperatures warm up into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Rain will continue into the afternoon and evening. The rain and slightly warmer weather should help melt more of the snow and ice.

**Reminder** Deanna LeBlanc and I will be at the McDonald Garden Show in Hampton from 1-3 PM tomorrow. If you plan on going, come stop by and say hi to us! The show is indoors, so don’t let the rain keep you away.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Midnight Update

February 26th, 2015 at 12:27 am by under Weather

And so it begins!!! The snow began just after 10 PM across North Carolina and now the snow is pushing into Virginia as I start writing this (11:30 PM). Once the snow starts, it will really comes down quickly. It should also start out as a wet snow, so the flakes may be rather large. Our Liz Palka reported that the roads in Elizabeth City became snow covered in less than an hour. So road conditions are going to deteriorate quickly, so it’s best to stay off the roads tonight and even early tomorrow morning. This event is just starting and the heaviest snow will fall between now and 7 AM Thursday morning. Our latest Future Trak model is doing a very good job of showing where the snow is right now, so its solution should be reliable over the next few hours. Here is what it has at 3 AM. Notice the heavy snow is located right across the Metro area.

Future Trak at 3 AM

Future Trak at 3 AM Thursday

The snow will continue right into tomorrow morning. Notice that the model has rain for much of North Carolina most of the night. I think the snow will change over to more of a mix of snow/sleet/rain for North Carolina. That is why we think snow totals will be lower there. I even think we will see some of the mix move into Virginia Beach and Chesapeake, which could reduce totals there too. Keep in mind that there is going to be a tight gradient in snow totals. For example…you may live in Northern Virginia Beach and see a few more inches than areas in Southern Virginia Beach.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Future Trak at 7 AM Thursday

Roads are still going to be snow covered in the morning because the snow will not stop falling until Thursday afternoon. Make sure you check the closings scrolling at the bottom of our screen on WAVY-TV 10 or check the closing lists on wavy.com here.

Here are our latest snow totals forecast zone by zone.

North Carolina Snow Forecast

North Carolina Snow Forecast

Southside Snow Totals

Southside Snow Totals

Peninsula Snow Totals

Peninsula Snow Totals

Northern Zones Snow Totals

Northern Zones Snow Totals

We also expect a burst of heavy snow to develop overnight. If that band moves over your region, you could see snow fall at the rate of 1-2 inches per hour. So isolated higher totals are definitely possible. You may even hear some thunder, since this system is so dynamic.

High temperatures will only rise into the lower 30s tomorrow, so don’t expect a lot of melting. The kids will have plenty of time to enjoy the snow!

If you are going to be up late tonight, tune into WAVY TV 10 at the top of each hour. Chief Meteorologist Don Slater and I will have continuous updates on this winter storm. Our next newscast begins at 4 AM with Meteorologists Jeremy Wheeler and Ashley Baylor.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona