Fall officially begins at 10:29 PM Monday night, so the first FULL day of fall is on Tuesday. Tomorrow is also known as the autumnal equinox, which is when the sun’s direct rays shine over Earth’s equator. Our days will be getting shorter as we approach the start of winter. Between tomorrow (start of Fall) and December 21 (start of winter), we are going to lose a total of 2 hours and 31 minutes of daylight.
Shorter Days Coming
I am tracking a cold front that will move in tomorrow morning, so it should feel like fall as we start off the fall season.
Cold Front Moving East
Notice there are a few showers developing out ahead of this front. We are not expecting much in the way of rain as this front moves through Hampton Roads. We may see an isolated shower develop tonight/early Monday, but that’s about it. Most of the energy is going to lag behind the front and our moisture levels aren’t too impressive. Cold front will switch our winds out of the north and northeast at 10-15mph tomorrow. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front. Here are the forecast dew points (surface moisture) on Monday. Notice that the dew point temperatures drop once the front moves into Hampton Roads. This is the best part of the forecast because humidity levels will be dropping tomorrow and will stay low Tuesday and part of Wednesday. It may be muggy outside when you are waking up Monday morning, but by Monday afternoon, it’s going to feel great!
Forecast Dew Points
Highs on Tuesday (first FULL day of fall) will only be around 70° with low humidity. Sounds like a perfect fall day to me!
High pressure will build into the region and our persistent northeast flow will stick around for the rest of the week. Tides are going to be running a little bit higher over the next few days, especially on Wednesday, when there is a new moon. Expect nuisance tidal flooding during times of high tide on Wednesday (9:51 AM, 10:06 PM).
The extended forecast is a little bit more complicated. The European model develops a wave of low pressure along the front offshore and brings some of that moisture into Virginia and North Carolina late Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. The GFS model keeps the rain to our south. Right now, I have Wednesday through Friday dry at this time. But we may need to put rain chances in the forecast if the GFS model trends more toward the European model. Stay tuned! Regardless of what happens, temperatures will be running below average for the rest of the week. Average high is 78° this time of year. Have a great Monday!
The weather today was PERFECT in my opinion. Felt more like fall with highs in the low to mid 70s and low humidity. The official start of the fall season begins Monday, September 22, so we are only a week away. Hopefully you had a chance to get outside for a little bit this afternoon.
Cooler and drier air moved in behind the front last night. Wind speeds have really come down, but the clouds should hang around overnight. The cloud cover will prevent most areas from seeing the air temperature fall all the way to the dew point temperature. But we will see some inland areas drop down into the upper 50s. These inland spots may see some patchy fog develop by the morning. Here are the forecast low temperatures overnight. You may need a light jacket or sweater early in the morning.
Another pleasant day is expected on Monday! Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with low humidity and a light breeze. A cold front will move in early Tuesday morning and bring us a chance for a few showers. The rain doesn’t look like it will be widespread at this time, just a few hit or miss showers.
Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday
We will dry out Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air will move back in and high temperatures will only be in the low to mid 70s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Average high this time of year is 80°.
Edouard has strengthened and is now a hurricane. Hurricane Edouard could reach category 3 status and become our first major hurricane of the year by Tuesday. Edouard is going to stay well out to sea, but should bring us higher waves Wednesday and Thursday.
Meanwhile Hurricane Odile is a monster category 3 hurricane spinning in the Eastern Pacific and headed toward Baja California. This dangerous hurricane could make landfall near Cabo San Lucas, a popular vacation destination, tonight or early Monday. This storm will move northwest and parallel the coast of Baja California over the next few days. Hurricane-force winds and coastal flooding can be expected. Heavy rain will lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Hopefully those folks have evacuated or are prepared for the worst.
Heavy rain moved in earlier this afternoon and dropped a good amount of rain in a short amount of time. The heaviest rain moved across the Southside first and then moved across North Carolina. Check out some of these impressive rain totals!
Tonight’s Rain Totals
Elizabeth City recorded 2.53 inches and Edenton picked up a whopping 4.16 inches so far over a 2-3 hour period tonight. The heaviest rain has pushed south into the Albemarle Sound, so another round of heavy rain is possible for the Outer Banks before midnight. The rest of the region could see a few more light showers, but no more heavy rain is expected.
Cooler and drier air will filter in tonight and drop temperatures into the mid 60s by tomorrow morning with some lower 60s inland. Winds will stay up tonight out of the north and northeast from 10-15mph. We will start off with a lot of clouds tomorrow morning and then become partly cloudy by the afternoon. Sunday will feel like a typical fall day. Highs in the low to mid 70s with LOW humidity. It will feel GREAT! If you have any yard work to do, tomorrow is the day to do it.
Tropical Storm Edouard is still spinning in the central Atlantic. Edouard is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night. This storm will stay out to sea, but should bring us some higher surf Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
The rain has finally ended for the most part across Hampton Roads, other than a few spotty light showers. There are still a lot of dark clouds on Tower Cam 10, but thankfully no rain!
Tower Cam 10
Thank you to everyone for sending in your rain totals by email, Facebook or Twitter. These totals help give us ground truth. The National Weather Service in Wakefield created the graphic below with the help of your rain totals to show where the heaviest rain fell. There is a legend at the bottom of the graphic explaining what each color means. The heaviest rain fell over parts of Isle of Wight County, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Newport News, Hampton and Virginia Beach. The highest total I have seen was in Smithfield where the report was over 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period. WOW!
Even though the rain has ended, we could still see tidal flooding tonight during high tide at 10:15. Tides have been running higher than normal because of our persistent northeasterly and easterly wind and because of the full moon last night. Water levels at Sewells Point peaked at 4.7 feet earlier this morning. The threshold for minor tidal flooding is at 4.5 feet. Minor tidal flooding will be possible again tonight because water levels are forecast to be right around that threshold. Keep that in mind if you live in a flood prone area. Move your car to higher ground.
Sewells Point Forecast Water Levels
Nuisance tidal flooding is still possible Wednesday and Thursday during high tide as water levels stay elevated, but below the threshold for minor tidal flooding.
Wednesday is looking much drier. We should start off with the clouds in the morning, but then transition to a mix of sun and clouds during the afternoon. A stray coastal shower is possible, but chances are very low.
Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have another update on the tides coming up on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.
It has been a busy afternoon with all of the reports of flooding coming in across the Hampton Roads cities. The heavy rain hit at the worst time, from 1-6 PM, because it impacted the commute home from work and school. Check out the WAVY slideshow of all of the photos of flooding sent into our newsroom. Here are the rain totals so far as of 7 PM. These totals will continue to rise even more tonight.
Keep in mind that the heaviest rain may not always fall where there is a rain gauge. In fact, a National Weather Service employee, reported over 10 inches of rain near the MMBT. That was the highest total of the day! Many of you reported between 4-6 inches of rain in Norfolk, Portsmouth, Virginia Beach, northern Suffolk, northern Chesapeake, Hampton, Newport News and Isle of Wight County. Other areas saw much less rain. Rain will continue tonight and heavy rain is still possible. We are concerned about the additional rain tonight because it will be falling during high tide which is at 9:25 PM at Sewells Point.
Future Trak at 9 PM Tonight
Tides will be running higher than normal tonight due to the northeasterly winds and the full moon. With the water levels approaching the minor flooding threshold and the rain still coming down, we could see additional street flooding near coastal areas. Here is the forecast for Sewells Point, which is a good benchmark for the Southside and the Peninsula.
Forecast Water Levels
Water levels will peak tonight and then come down, but stay elevated Tuesday and Wednesday. Nuisance tidal flooding will be possible during periods of high tide Tuesday and Wednesday. We are tracking an area of low pressure that will move north through North Carolina and Virginia tomorrow. Rain is likely in the morning, so prepare for another messy morning commute.
Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday
Rain will become more scattered in the afternoon as the low pushes away from us. Then we are looking at a drier day on Wednesday. Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have another update coming up on WAVY News 10 at 11.
Here is just a quick afternoon update to Jeremy’s previous blog. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for all of the counties highlighted in green until Tuesday morning.
Flood Watch Until Tuesday Morning
Many areas have already picked up between 2-3 inches of rain. Some reports are coming in of 4-5 inches already and we are not done yet. We are getting many reports of street flooding. Here is a photo taken at the Virginia Beach Oceanfront by Paula. If you have any photos of flooding, please send them to email@example.com.
Virginia Beach Street Flooding
Very heavy rain has been falling across Newport News, Hampton, Portsmouth and Norfolk over the past 2 hours. This heavy rain is slowly pushing east toward Virginia Beach. Expect the evening commute to be a messy one. Leave yourself extra time to get where you need to go tonight. Heavy rain will reduce visibilities and cause ponding on the roads. Make sure you don’t drive through a flooded road. Turn around!
It was a cloudy, dreary day with some on and off rain, mostly in the morning for Virginia. Heavy rain fell across the Eastern Shore last night and early this morning. Melfa picked up 1.38 inches and Wallops Island picked up 1.79 inches just over a period of several hours. We were significantly cooler than yesterday with highs in the upper 70s to around 80°. Another round of storms fired up along the Outer Banks this afternoon as the cold front was moving southward. These storms produced heavy rain and dumped a good 1.7 inches of rain in Manteo. One of the storms even produced a waterspout over the Pamlico Sound. This photo was taken by Gerry in Waves, just south of Rodanthe.
Waterspout near Waves, NC
Showers are possible across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks tonight. The rain will slowly push northward overnight. Rain should become more widespread by 7:00 AM Monday. Our latest hi-resolution computer model shows a wet morning commute for most folks. Make sure the kids pack their rain jacket/umbrella for school in the morning.
Future Trak at 7 AM Monday
The red and yellow colors show pockets of heavy rain. Showers will be slow moving and we will have plenty of moisture to work with, so heavy rain will be the main threat. Heavy rain could lead to some localized street flooding. There may be a few breaks in the rain here and there, but I wouldn’t count on a lot.
Future Trak at 5 PM Monday
The evening commute could be even worse, especially if some roads/low lying areas are flooded. An area of low pressure will ride along that stationary front located in North Carolina keeping the chance for rain in the forecast on Tuesday. Rain should be more scattered on Tuesday because the low will be pushing away from us. Forecast rain totals should range from 2-3 inches on average with a few higher totals possible, mainly in areas that see heavy rain for a long period of time. Behind the front, winds are blowing out of the northeast. With strong northeasterly winds and a full moon coming up tomorrow night, tides will be running higher than normal. Nuisance tidal flooding will be possible Monday through Wednesday during times of high tide. See graphic below for times and forecast water levels.
Sewells Point Tides
Water levels should stay below the threshold for minor tidal flooding for now, but things could still change. Water levels will be the highest Wednesday morning and then should come down on Thursday. We dry out Wednesday and Thursday before another round of storms arrives late Thursday night into Friday. At least the cooler weather has returned! Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80° Monday through Wednesday. Have a great week! Don’t forget the umbrella!
High temperatures reached the lower 90s today, but it felt more like the upper 90s and triple digits when you factored in the humidity.
Saturday High Temperatures
Are you ready for some heat relief? I know I am! We are tracking a cold front out to our west that will move in overnight and bring us a better chance for rain and cooler weather for your Sunday. Highs tomorrow should be about 10-15 degrees cooler than today. Here is the cold front at 8 PM. Notice all of the showers and storms developing out ahead of it.
Cold Front Location at 8 PM
We could see a few showers after midnight across our northern counties, but most of the rain should push in early Sunday morning. Here is our Future Trak at 9 AM Sunday morning. Make sure you bring the umbrella with you to your Sunday church services.
Future Trak at 9 AM Sunday
Rain showers should become more scattered during the afternoon, so tomorrow shouldn’t be a total washout. But it will be cloudy, cooler and breezy at times with highs in the upper 70s to around 80°. Here are Sunday’s rain chances.
Sunday’s Rain Chances
The cold front will stall out Monday and Tuesday and an area of low pressure will ride along that boundary keeping rain chances in the forecast. High temperatures will be kept down into the upper 70s to around 80° over the next few days. Average high temperature is 82° this time of year.
The heat and the humidity will return just in time for the unofficial end to summer (Labor Day). Norfolk International Airport reached 93 degrees today and it was the only 90 degree day this month! Most of August has been cooler than average with highs in the 70s and 80s.
August High Temperatures At Norfolk Airport
Highs on Labor Day will be in the low to mid 90s. When you factor in the humidity, it will feel more like 100 degrees. Make sure you and your family stay hydrated, especially if you are spending any time outside. This heat can be dangerous. If you are outside for an extended period of time, take breaks by going into an air-conditioned room or by resting in the shade.
Labor Day Temperatures
A good place to beat the heat will be the beach or the pool. Don’t forget the umbrella and the sunscreen! Rip current risk will be low, which is good news for swimmers. Wave heights should range from 2-3 feet in Virginia Beach and along the Outer Banks. An upper level area of high pressure kept us dry this weekend. This high will move east tomorrow and with all of the heat and humidity in place, there will be a chance for a few pop-up afternoon showers and storms. Rain could develop anytime after 3 PM and will be hit or miss. I think a lot of places will miss out on the rain. Our Future Trak computer model has a few showers/storms developing around 4 PM and continuing through around sunset.
Future Trak at 4 PM Monday
I wouldn’t cancel any of your outdoor plans tomorrow because most of the day will be dry. Just have a back-up plan in case a storm develops near you. We are not expecting any severe weather, just typical summertime pop-up storms.
Tuesday is going to be the hottest day of the week with highs in the mid 90s, which is close to record levels. Record high on Tuesday (September 2) is 97 degrees set back in 1993. Average high is 83 degrees. Just when you thought fall was around the corner, the 90s make a comeback! A weak cold front will push into the region on Wednesday and bring us a better chance for rain and slightly cooler weather by the end of the week. Highs on Thursday and Friday will drop into the mid 80s.
We are watching a broad area of low pressure moving across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. This disturbance is expected to strengthen once it moves into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center is giving this area a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours and a 60% chance over the next 5 days. Most of the computer models track this disturbance into Mexico this week.
Stay safe in the heat and enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend!
Wave heights will increase even more tomorrow thanks to Hurricane Cristobal.
Wave Heights on Wednesday at 3 PM
Wave heights should range from 4-5 feet at Virginia Beach and from 5-7 feet at the Outer Banks tomorrow. I think Cape Hatteras could see even higher waves ranging from 7-9 feet. Remember the risk for rip currents will be very high. That means the water will be extremely dangerous for swimmers. We will likely see red flags flying at the beaches tomorrow. Make sure you go to a beach with lifeguards, since the water will be rough. Surfers, winds will be blowing out of the northeast around 10-15mph along the coast. Cristobal will take a hard right turn on Thursday and move away from the East Coast, so the swell will begin to fade a little bit. Here are the forecast wave heights through Friday.
Wave Heights This Week
Wave heights should really drop down by the weekend and the threat for rip currents will drop too, which is good for all of the vacationers here for the Labor Day Weekend.
Here is the 5 PM update on Hurricane Cristobal. Maximum sustained winds are still at 75mph. The wind shear is starting to decrease, so Cristobal is looking like a healthier storm on satellite imagery. Cristobal is expected to strengthen even more tomorrow and on Thursday.
Hurricane Cristobal – 5 PM Update
Our weather is going to remain quiet as high pressure remains in control. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 80s. The heat and humidity will return by the weekend.