Most of us have just seen scattered light rain so far this evening. Rain should become more widespread and heavier as we get closer to midnight tonight. I am tracking a warm front that will continue to lift northward through Hampton Roads overnight. Once the warm front moves through, warm, moist air will move in and the winds will really pick up. So temperatures will be rising into the 60s overnight instead of falling. Winds will increase out of the south and southeast at 20-30mph with gusts up to 40mph along the coast. Inland areas can expect sustained winds between 15-25mph with gusts up to 30mph.
The best dynamics with this storm system will move in around 12-2 AM, so if we are going to see any storms, that will be the small window when storms can develop. There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms overnight just south of the warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Southside and North Carolina in a marginal risk for severe weather and the Outer Banks in a slight risk for severe weather.
This means that the atmosphere will be a little bit more favorable for severe weather across the Outer Banks. Temperatures and dew point readings will be higher there since the warm front will move through these areas first. If any storms develop, heavy rain, gusty winds and an isolated tornado will be possible. Notice the storms developing in North Carolina by 1 AM Monday morning.
Heaviest rain should move offshore by 3 AM. There may be a few showers around 7 AM, but most of the rain will have tapered off by then. Fog will likely develop overnight and become widespread by Monday morning, so watch out for reduced visibilities.
It will be a very warm and muggy morning as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s by 7 AM. Near record heat is possible Monday afternoon as highs climb into the mid to upper 70s. Here are the current record highs for each climate site in our region.
After the near record heat expected tomorrow, our focus shifts to the next coastal system that will impact holiday travel on Wednesday. Rain and wind is likely all day on Wednesday. A wintry mix will be possible for our northern and inland counties Wednesday night. Here is a preview of our long-term Future Trak model.
Keep in mind that this forecast WILL change over the next few days. Right now, we are certain that Wednesday will be a messy travel day across our area. Travel may even be difficult farther north toward Richmond, DC and into New England. Stay tuned!
-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona