It is going to be a wet start to the week, but at least we had nice weather over the weekend. The clouds have already moved in and should thicken up tonight ahead of the rain. All of the rain and thunderstorm activity is located to our south right now.
Satellite/Radar at 8 PM Sunday
This stationary front is going to lift northward as a warm front tonight. That means the warm air and the moisture will be lifting northward as well, heading in our direction. Severe weather is possible tonight across Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. These areas will be just south of the warm front and closest to that area of low pressure which is tracking east. Our Future Trak model has the rain pushing in anytime after 5 AM. The rain should be scattered around 7 AM for your morning commute, so it may not be raining at every location at that time.
Future Trak at 7 AM Monday
Rain becomes even more widespread by 12 PM. A warm front will move northward through the region tomorrow afternoon. This warm front will bring in warm air and an increase in moisture. Once the warm front moves in, temperatures will really start to rise, even though it will be raining.
Future Trak at 5 PM Monday
With warmer air, an increase in moisture and a lot of wind shear, we may see a few thunderstorms develop during the late afternoon and evening hours. Best chance for storms will be across Southside Virginia and North Carolina where we will have slightly warmer air. I think the chance for severe weather across Hampton Roads is going to be on the low end. We will have the warm air in place with temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, we are going to be lacking some moisture at the surface. Dew point temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 50s, maybe 60 degrees. We like to see dew point readings well into the 60s if we are talking about the potential for stronger storms. The rain and the clouds should keep the instability down. The best lift or energy associated with this storm system won’t move in until after sunset, which is not the most favorable time frame for severe storms. I am not completely ruling out the chance for stronger storms. There may be one or two that can get going with all of the wind shear in place, especially out in front of the cold front. But, at this time, it doesn’t look like we will have a good chance for severe weather. Stay tuned for any changes.
We may see a few breaks in the rain during the early evening hours before another round of heavier rain moves into the region. Thunderstorm chances will be increasing late Monday night before the cold front moves through Hampton Roads. Future Trak has a line of scattered showers and storms at this time.
Future Trak at 12 AM Tuesday
The cold front will move in Tuesday morning. Computer models have changed their tune a little bit regarding the ending time of the rain. Now it looks like the rain will linger into Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening for coastal areas. The front should stall offshore, but an area of low pressure will develop along it. An upper level trough will still be located overhead, so we will have plenty of moisture to work with on Tuesday. Therefore, rain will stay in the forecast through Tuesday night. Check out the forecast rain totals through Tuesday night.
Monday-Tuesday Rain Totals
Rain totals should average anywhere between 1-1.5 inches of rain. Some areas that see heavier rain/thunderstorms could see totals up to 2 inches, maybe more. Norfolk Airport is now 0.75 inches below average for the year, so we do need a dose of some healthy rain.
I will have another update on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Make sure you tune into WAVY News 10 Today starting at 4:30 AM. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will be tracking the rain for you on Super Doppler 10 Live Radar. Don’t forget the umbrella!
-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona