Tiffany Savona WAVY

Storms Possible Tonight, Record Heat on Monday

November 23rd, 2014 at 9:12 pm by under Weather

Most of us have just seen scattered light rain so far this evening. Rain should become more widespread and heavier as we get closer to midnight tonight. I am tracking a warm front that will continue to lift northward through Hampton Roads overnight. Once the warm front moves through, warm, moist air will move in and the winds will really pick up. So temperatures will be rising into the 60s overnight instead of falling. Winds will increase out of the south and southeast at 20-30mph with gusts up to 40mph along the coast. Inland areas can expect sustained winds between 15-25mph with gusts up to 30mph.

Wind Forecast

Wind Forecast

The best dynamics with this storm system will move in around 12-2 AM, so if we are going to see any storms, that will be the small window when storms can develop. There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms overnight just south of the warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Southside and North Carolina in a marginal risk for severe weather and the Outer Banks in a slight risk for severe weather.

Severe Weather Risk

Severe Weather Risk

This means that the atmosphere will be a little bit more favorable for severe weather across the Outer Banks. Temperatures and dew point readings will be higher there since the warm front will move through these areas first. If any storms develop, heavy rain, gusty winds and an isolated tornado will be possible. Notice the storms developing in North Carolina by 1 AM Monday morning.

Future Trak at 1 AM

Future Trak at 1 AM Monday

Heaviest rain should move offshore by 3 AM. There may be a few showers around 7 AM, but most of the rain will have tapered off by then. Fog will likely develop overnight and become widespread by Monday morning, so watch out for reduced visibilities.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Future Trak at 7 AM

It will be a very warm and muggy morning as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s by 7 AM.  Near record heat is possible Monday afternoon as highs climb into the mid to upper 70s. Here are the current record highs for each climate site in our region.

Monday Record HIghs

Monday Record Highs

After the near record heat expected tomorrow, our focus shifts to the next coastal system that will impact holiday travel on Wednesday. Rain and wind is likely all day on Wednesday. A wintry mix will be possible for our northern and inland counties Wednesday night. Here is a preview of our long-term Future Trak model.

Future Trak at 8 PM Weds

Future Trak at 8 PM Weds

Keep in mind that this forecast WILL change over the next few days. Right now, we are certain that Wednesday will be a messy travel day across our area. Travel may even be difficult farther north toward Richmond, DC and into New England. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Rainy/Stormy Sunday Night

November 22nd, 2014 at 10:02 pm by under Weather

It was a cold night for the Grand Illumination in Norfolk and Light Up The Town in Virginia Beach. Check out the view of the lights out of Tower Cam 10 and our Virginia Beach Town Center webcam!

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Virginia Beach Town Center

Virginia Beach Town Center

With a mostly clear sky overnight, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s by Sunday morning. Sunday will be a day of change across the region. Sunday morning will be cold and dry and Sunday night will be warm and wet. Rain chances go up by the late afternoon, so Sunday will not be a wash-out. Moisture levels will be on the rise tomorrow, so clouds will be increasing throughout the day. It will take a little while to moisten up the atmosphere so rain shouldn’t develop until late in the day. North Carolina and the Southside could see rain anytime after 3 PM. Rain becomes more widespread by the dinner hour. Here is what our Future Trak model shows by 6 PM.

Future Trak at 6 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 6 PM Sunday

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Outer Banks and Mainland Dare County in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow.

Sunday Storm Risk

Sunday Storm Risk

The rest of Virginia and North Carolina could still see isolated thunderstorms, but the chance is higher for stronger storms across the Outer Banks and down through South Carolina and Georgia. The warm front will push through the Outer Banks a little bit earlier in the day, so moisture values will be higher there. Wind shear will be decent, which is when winds change speed and direction with height in the atmosphere. So storms will be able to rotate, that is IF they get going. We will have a lot of clouds most of the day and the sun sets at 4:51 PM. I think there will be a small window for the potential for strong storms across the Outer Banks. Any instability will be going down once the sun sets, which is early now. As the night wears on, the potential for severe weather will go down and the potential for heavy rain will go up as warm, moist air moves into the region. The rain gets even heavier late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Future Trak at 3 AM Monday

Future Trak at 3 AM Monday

Rain should taper off early Monday morning, but it will be a foggy, windy and warm morning with temperatures in the 60s. Highs Monday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 70s, so we will be close to record levels once again!

Tune into WAVY News 10 at 11 for an updated forecast. Plus Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will be on WAVY News 10 from 6-8 AM Sunday morning with an update on the timing of the rain.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Record Lows Possible Overnight

November 18th, 2014 at 6:40 pm by under Weather

It felt more like winter today with afternoon temperatures in the 30s and 40s! We are not the only ones seeing the cold weather. Most of the country is dealing with unseasonably cold weather. Here is a map of the low temperatures recorded this morning across the country. All areas above the pink line saw temperatures below freezing this morning. This was the coldest morning across the U.S. (Lower 48)  since November of 1976, which was 38 years ago!

COLD Morning Nationwide

COLD Morning Nationwide

We were above freezing in Hampton Roads this morning thanks to the strong wind. But temperatures are going to drop WELL BELOW freezing tonight, and the record low at Norfolk Airport could be in jeopardy. The high level clouds will clear out and wind speeds will come down allowing temperatures to plummet. We are forecasting lows to drop into the low to mid 20s with teens possible for inland locations. The record low temperature at Norfolk Airport is 25° set back in 1959.  Here are the forecast lows.

Metro Forecast Lows

Metro Forecast Lows

Low Temperatures

Low Temperatures

Make sure you are prepared for the winter-like temperatures overnight:

  • Bring the pets inside
  • Make sure your heater is working
  • Check on family, friends and the elderly
  • If you live in a rural/inland location where temperatures drop into the teens, it may be a good idea to drip the faucets
  • Make sure the kids are bundled up as they head to the bus stop tomorrow morning.
  • Dress in layers and cover exposed skin (gloves, scarves, hats)

Luckily Hampton Roads doesn’t look like THIS! This is a picture of the lake effect snow coming down in Buffalo. Picture credit goes to NBC News.

Snow in Buffalo, NY

Snow in Buffalo, NY

Some areas near Buffalo have already seen 51 inches of snow and more is on the way. Some places could see 5-6 feet of snow before all is said and done.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Waterspouts Reported, Severe Threat Winding Down

November 17th, 2014 at 6:34 pm by under Weather

It was a busy afternoon in the Super Doppler 10 Weather Center. We only saw a couple of storms, but one of them did produce a waterspout. Don and I were watching this one storm rapidly develop over Norfolk just before 4 PM. We noticed it was showing signs of broad rotation. We did have plenty of shear in the atmosphere. The storm really strengthened over the Chesapeake Bay. The Department of Highways at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel reported 2 waterspouts near the First Island at 4:08 PM. This is what the radar looked like at that time. Notice the notch just to the north of the Norfolk label. This is likely where the waterspout developed.

4:10 PM Radar Image - Waterspout

4:10 PM Radar Image – Waterspout Developing

Dustin Wyatt sent this picture to reportit@wavy.com of the waterspout while traveling on the CBBT.

Waterspout

Waterspout

Dawn sent in a picture of hail just east of NAS Norfolk. This hail came from the same storm that produced the waterspout over the Chesapeake Bay.

Hail

Hail

The tornado watch that was issued for North Carolina has expired and the severe weather threat is winding down. The sun has set, so we are losing any instability that we had earlier this evening. However, rain is still possible for the next few hours. Our latest Future Trak model is doing a good job with the rain out there now, so I trust its solution. Here is what we can expect at 8 PM. Heaviest rain is offshore, but a few light showers are still possible.

Future Trak at 8 PM

Future Trak at 8 PM

All the rain should come to an end before midnight. Then the COLD air arrives! Temperatures will drop into the lower 30s by Tuesday morning and highs will only rise into the upper 30s by the afternoon.

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Temperatures

That is about 30-35 degrees colder than the 70s we saw today. Winds will be strong out of the northwest at 10-20mph, so it will feel even colder. Near record lows will be possible Wednesday morning as lows drop into the lower 20s with teens inland. Record low for Norfolk Airport is 25° set back in 1959. Stay warm everyone!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Rain First, Then COLD!

November 16th, 2014 at 9:24 pm by under Weather

Get ready for 2 rounds of rain and then much colder weather! First round is tonight and the second round will arrive tomorrow. The rain has already pushed into Hampton Roads tonight thanks to a weak area of low pressure offshore.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This low will move northeast tonight, so the rain will increase in coverage. Showers should gradually taper off after midnight.

The cold front located across Alabama and Louisiana is the same cold front that will move into Virginia and North Carolina tomorrow evening. So we are seeing the first round of rain tonight. Then round two moves in Monday afternoon.

Monday morning is going to start off cloudy and chilly with temperatures hovering in the mid to upper 40s. It will not be nearly as cold as this weekend when temperatures were in the 20s and 30s during the early morning hours.

Future Trak at 7 AM Monday

Future Trak at 7 AM Monday

The morning commute should be just fine, but the evening commute could be messy. A line of showers and isolated storms should develop out ahead of the cold front at 3 PM. Southwesterly winds running between 15-25mph will boost high temperatures in the lower 70s. That is about 20 degrees warmer than today! Humidity levels will be higher too.

Future Trak at 3 PM

Future Trak at 3 PM

The line of rain will continue to move east, so the rain will be hit or miss during your evening commute. Best chances for rain tomorrow will be between 3-8 PM.

Future Trak at 6 PM

Future Trak at 6 PM

Cold front will move into the metro area anytime between 7-10 PM. Once the cold front moves in, colder and drier air will move into the region. All rain should come to an end before midnight. Temperatures will drop into the 30s by Tuesday morning and highs Tuesday afternoon will only be in the upper 30s! That is after seeing highs in the lower 70s on Monday. So high temperatures will drop 30° or more over a 24-hour period. Wow!

Tuesday Highs

Tuesday Highs

And then it gets colder! Near record cold is expected Wednesday morning as lows drop into the lower 20s with teens possible inland. The record low for Norfolk Airport Wednesday morning is 25° set back in 1959. The cold weather sticks around on Wednesday as highs only rise to around 40°.

*This upcoming cold blast is going to be stronger than the one we saw this weekend. Make sure your are prepared!

  • Bring pets inside
  • Dress in layers and cover exposed skin (gloves, hats, scarves)
  • Make sure your heater works
  • Remember to check on family, friends, elderly

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Cold Blast Arrives Late This Week

November 9th, 2014 at 9:22 pm by under Weather

The remnants of Nuri, which was a record breaking storm, will be responsible for an arctic blast across the U.S. this week. Thanks to Nuri, a strong ridge will develop across the West Coast and a large trough will develop across the rest of the country. This will open the door for cold Arctic air to move into the U.S.

Jet Stream Position

Jet Stream Position

Here is a look at the weather pattern early this week. A strong ridge develops across California and the rest of the West Coast, while the jet stream takes a large dip across the rest of the country. This dip in the jet stream will allow cold arctic air to filter in behind the cold front. Notice that Virginia and North Carolina are going to stay warm through Wednesday.

Weather Pattern Early This Week

Weather Pattern Early This Week

By the end of the week, the weather pattern will look more like this.

Weather Pattern Late This Week

Weather Pattern Late This Week

The coldest weather will be across the Northern Tier of the country and the Midwest where temperatures will drop below zero degrees in the morning and not make it out of the teens and 20s by the afternoon. Our temperatures will drop a good 20 degrees, but the air will moderate by the time it reaches us. So, our cool down will not be as extreme as some of our northern states. But it will still be the coldest air we have seen so far this season.

Temperature Trend

Temperature Trend

As high drop into the 40s, lows will be dropping to around 32 degrees Saturday and Sunday mornings. If you have any yard work to do, make sure you plan time over the next few days before it gets much colder. Have a good week!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Alaska Storm Breaking Records

November 8th, 2014 at 8:17 pm by under Weather

As the title suggests, the remnants of Super Typhoon Nuri is now one of the strongest non-tropical storms on record coming in with a central pressure of 924 millibars. This is the strongest storm to impact the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands since October of 1977. Back in October of 1977, another strong area of low pressure moved across the Bering Sea.  Dutch Harbor, Alaska measured a central pressure of 925 millibars with that storm.

Alaska Storm

Monster Alaska Storm

Hurricane force winds and 45-50 foot waves can be expected across the Aleutian Islands and the Bering Sea tonight. The remnants of Nuri will have a ripple effect on the weather across the U.S. Thanks to Nuri, a strong ridge will develop across the West Coast and a large trough will develop across the rest of the country. This will open the door for cold Arctic air to move into the U.S.

Cold Air Coming Soon....

Cold Air Coming Soon….

The coldest weather will be felt across the Northern Tier of the U.S. and the Rockies where temperatures will drop below zero degrees in the morning and only rise into the teens and 20s during the afternoon. We will see a big drop in temperatures here, but it won’t be as extreme.

Temperature Trend

Temperature Trend

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Freeze Warning In Effect Tonight!

November 2nd, 2014 at 8:55 pm by under Weather

The coastal storm that brought us rain, strong winds and higher tides is now bringing snow and strong winds to New England tonight.

Coastal Low To Our North

Coastal Low To Our North

Here are some of the peak wind speeds that were recorded over the past 24 hours.

Peak Wind Speeds

Peak Wind Speeds

Wind speeds have come down, the clouds have cleared out and high pressure is building in from the west, which is a perfect recipe for a cold morning ahead.  Inland areas could see the first freeze of the season early Monday morning. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all areas in purple.

Freeze Warning

Freeze Warning In Effect Overnight

Here are the forecast lows for the metro area tonight.

Forecast Lows Monday Morning

Forecast Lows Monday Morning

If you live in an area where temperatures are expected to drop below freezing, then cover or bring any sensitive plants inside to avoid damage. Don’t forget about your pets! Bring them inside too! Keep in mind that areas in Chesapeake, Portsmouth and Williamsburg are going to be close to freezing. So I would protect your plants in these areas too, just in case the temperature drops a few more degrees at your house. Here is a wider view to include areas outside the metro. Inland areas in North Carolina will also see temperatures at or below freezing. The Eastern Shore should remain above freezing because winds will be a little bit stronger there (10-20mph overnight).

Forecast Lows Monday Morning

Forecast Lows Monday Morning

Is it normal to see our first freeze/frost for inland spots in early November? After looking at the graphic below, the answer is YES.

First Freeze/Frost Dates

Average First Freeze/Frost Dates

Keep in mind that these numbers are averages over time. So it is possible that the first freeze may come before or after these dates.

Quick update on the tides. Water levels went way down during high tide at 5:02 this evening. However, we may see another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding Monday morning around 5:32 AM. So, water levels should be a little bit lower than what we saw early this morning.

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Nuisance to minor tidal flooding will also be possible on the bay side of the Eastern Shore around 5:06 Monday morning.

*Make sure the kids have the heavier coats tomorrow morning. After seeing temperatures in the 30s, we expect to see highs rise into the upper 50s to around 60° by Monday afternoon. We should warm up even more Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with highs back in the 70s. Our next cold front arrives Thursday bringing another chance for rain and cooler weather by the weekend.

Have a great week everyone!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 

 


Winds & Tides Peak Overnight

November 1st, 2014 at 9:15 pm by under Weather

Wind speeds and tides will peak early Sunday morning as an area of low pressure strengthens offshore. Scattered light showers are possible on and off this evening, but the main impacts from this coastal storm will be the strong winds and the tidal flooding. Almost all areas have seen less than 0.25″ of rain so far today and the rain is almost done. Winds will be strongest along the coastline. Here is the forecast. Gusts could exceed 50mph along the coast. Virginia Beach just saw a wind gust up to 53mph as I’m typing this blog.

Wind Forecast

Overnight Wind Forecast

Here is a closer look at the metro area.

Wind Forecast

Overnight Wind Forecast

Tides will be running much higher than normal overnight. Moderate soundside flooding will be possible across the Outer Banks. There will likely overwash along Highway 12. The worst of the tidal flooding will be across the Southside because we have a northerly wind. So the wind is pushing the water down the Bay and it piles up near Sewells Point. Sewells Point, Yorktown and Kiptopeke are locations where tidal gauges are kept. This diagram shows which areas are affected by each tidal gauge. When we refer to Sewells Point, it is a good benchmark for the Southside cities and even parts of the Peninsula along the James River.

Tidal Gauge Locations

Tidal Gauge Locations

If you saw tidal flooding around 5 PM this evening across the Southside, then you will definitely see additional tidal flooding around high tide Sunday morning (4:31 AM). Keep in mind that flooding will be possible about an hour or so before high tide and an hour or so after high tide. Here is the forecast.

Sewells Point Tides

Sewells Point Tides

Areas along the Chesapeake Bay on the Eastern Shore could see MODERATE tidal flooding tomorrow morning around 4:05 AM. Here is the forecast for Kiptopeke.

Kiptopeke Tides

Kiptopeke Tides

MINOR tidal flooding will be possible for areas affected by the York River. See map above. Here is the forecast for Yorktown.

Yorktown Tides

Yorktown Tides

***If you live in a flood prone area, move your car to higher ground ASAP. You want to make sure your boat is tied up as well.

The rain will taper off tonight and temperatures will drop into the upper 30s inland and lower 40s along the coast by tomorrow morning. Winds speeds will gradually die down throughout the day tomorrow. Wind speeds will still range from 20-30mph Sunday morning, but by Sunday afternoon winds will only be running between 10-20mph. Sunday’s highs will only be in the upper 40s to around 50° and the wind will make it feel even COLDER. So make sure you have a warm jacket as you head to those church services in the morning.

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater and I will have the latest and most up-to-date forecast coming up on WAVY News 10 at 11. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will be here in the morning tracking the tides and will have the latest on WAVY News 10 starting at 6 AM.

***REMINDER: TURN YOUR CLOCKS BACK 1 HOUR BEFORE BED TONIGHT!***

Fall Back Tonight!

Fall Back Tonight!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Rocket Launch Scrubbed Plus Hanna Weakens

October 27th, 2014 at 9:33 pm by under Weather

I know a lot of people were disappointed tonight when the Antares Rocket Launch was scrubbed because of a boat downrange of the launch area. The launch has been rescheduled for tomorrow at 6:22 PM. Live coverage of the launch can be seen on Ustream. Here is the forecast for Tuesday’s launch from Wallops Island. The sky will be clear, so everyone should be able to see it, but the winds could be a bit breezy out of the southwest at 10-15mph. Hopefully the wind speeds don’t interfere with the launch. We will just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.

Wallops Island Rocket Launch

Wallops Island Rocket Launch Forecast

Tropical Update:

Hanna has weakened to a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.

Tropical Depression Hanna

Hanna is moving westward and should fall apart on Tuesday. Heavy rain still remains a big threat for Nicaragua and Honduras over the next 24 hours. The rain could lead to flooding and mudslides. Hanna will not impact the U.S.

11 PM Update: Hanna has now dissipated, but heavy rain still remains a threat for Nicaragua and Honduras.

Our temperatures will be going up and down this week. Temperatures will drop into the lower 50s with upper 40s inland overnight. Get ready for summer to make a return as highs climb into the lower 80s tomorrow. The warm weather continues on Wednesday before the next cold front moves through the region. Much cooler air will move in by the end of the week.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona