Tiffany Savona WAVY

Tropical Depression TWO Has Formed

July 21st, 2014 at 2:47 pm by under Weather

There was a big afternoon update sent out by National Hurricane Center. We are watching an area of showers and thunderstorms located across the Central Atlantic.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

There was only a 10% chance of development last night, so that is why I didn’t talk about it. Now…since the disturbance has become more organized, the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours. Satellite data has shown that the circulation has become more defined and the National Hurricane Center is saying that there is a small area of winds up to tropical storm force. We could see a depression or tropical storm develop at any time if the winds increase or if the storm becomes more organized. The next name on the list is Bertha. This disturbance is currently moving WNW at 15-20mph, heading for the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are favorable for development now, since the wind shear is low. But as this disturbance moves westward, it should encounter more wind shear, which would help to weaken the system.

Here are some computer model runs showing a preliminary track of this disturbance. Keep in mind that these track forecasts are extremely preliminary because this system hasn’t formed yet. I’m showing you this graphic to show the general westward movement of the system. Whether this develops into a tropical system or not, folks across the Lesser Antilles need to monitor this disturbance over the next few days.

Model Tracks

Model Tracks

I will have a full update coming up on WAVY News 10 at 4 PM and Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have more information on WAVY News 10 at 5 PM, 5:30 PM, 6 PM and 11 PM. Stay tuned!

NEW UPDATE: Tropical Depression TWO has formed in the Central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has the depression moving westward toward the Lesser Antilles by the end of the week. The depression will be moving into an unfavorable environment (increasing wind shear), not conducive for strengthening over the next few days. There is a chance that Tropical Depression TWO could weaken to an area of low pressure by the end of the week across the Atlantic. Stay tuned for updates!

Tropical Depression TWO

Tropical Depression TWO

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Warming Back Up This Week

July 20th, 2014 at 8:53 pm by under Weather

It has been unseasonably cool for summer standards in Hampton Roads over the past 5 days. High temperatures have been in the 70s and 80s since last Wednesday. Average high this time of year is 88°. The clouds and a persistent northeasterly breeze held temperatures down this weekend.

Past 5 Days

High Temperatures Over The Past 5 Days

It was not the sunniest of weekends, but not the rainiest of weekends either. We did see a few light showers here and there both yesterday and today, but most of us just saw a lot of clouds. Get ready for a gradual warm-up over the next few days. Highs will return to the 90s by the middle of the week. The weather pattern is going to remain unsettled this week. The jet stream will stay well to the north of us through the middle of the week. An upper level ridge will strengthen out west resulting in highs in the 90s and triple digits across the Southern Plains and the Desert Southwest.

Weather Pattern Monday-Wednesday

Weather Pattern Monday-Wednesday

Our next storm system won’t arrive until the end of the week. Until then, we will have slight chances for rain in the forecast almost every day. Several weak upper level disturbances will move across Virginia and North Carolina Monday through Wednesday. These pieces of energy will bring in some colder air aloft, which promotes rising air. Rising air creates showers and storms. So we will see the typical summertime pop-up showers and storms over the next few days. Don’t expect to see rain everyday because the rain that develops will be hit or miss. The best chance for widespread rain arrives late Thursday into Friday when a cold front slides through Hampton Roads.

Weather Pattern Thursday - Friday

Weather Pattern Thursday – Friday

There is a chance the cold front could stall out across the region next Saturday and Sunday. Cold fronts typically stall out across Hampton Roads during the summer months due to the weak steering winds aloft. If this happens, then we will see rain continue into next Saturday and Sunday. For more on the short term forecast, here is what you can expect for tonight and tomorrow. We will continue to see more clouds overnight and some patchy fog may develop by Monday morning. Some of the clouds will break up by tomorrow afternoon as highs rise into the mid 80s. Future Trak has a few showers and storms developing by 3 PM as an upper level disturbance moves across Virginia and North Carolina.

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

Notice that the best chance for rain will be across inland areas. Any rain that develops should fizzle out by sunset.

I hope everyone had a great weekend! Don’t forget to tune into WAVY News 10 at 11 for your latest forecast.

 

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 


Tuesday’s Severe Weather

July 15th, 2014 at 7:16 pm by under Weather

Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler talked about the possibility of severe weather in his blog from this morning. As expected, strong to severe storms quickly developed this afternoon as the upper level trough moved closer to Virginia and North Carolina. There were many boundaries (wind shift lines) across the area, some due to earlier convection. Once we saw enough heating, these storms rapidly developed along these boundaries. The severe storm over Virginia Beach produced a waterspout. Check out this awesome video sent in from Nancy Gorell. Meteorologist Don Slater and I noticed an area of rotation offshore during WAVY News 10 at 4. That area of rotation most likely produced that waterspout.

There were many reports of downed trees and power lines in Virginia Beach. We have also received numerous photos showing tree damage due to lightning strikes.  This photo was taken by Jordan Crute in Kempsville. Notice the large gash down the tree. That is where lightning stuck the tree.

Lightning Strikes Tree

Lightning Strikes Tree

Here is a close up photo of tree damage due to a lightning strike sent in from Jenn in Thalia.

Lightning Strikes Tree in Thalia

Lightning Strikes Tree in Thalia

Check out this tree damage sent in from Patrick Nolan in Virginia Beach. It looks like this large branch snapped off the larger tree that is still standing. Unfortunately, it looks like the branch fell on part of the roof causing damage to the house.

Lightning Strikes Tree

Lightning Strikes Tree in Virginia Beach

We are not done with the rain just yet, but the severe threat is winding down across the region. I wouldn’t be surprised if the severe thunderstorm watch was cancelled early.  Our Future Trak model has been doing a really good job with the placement of the showers and storms that developed earlier, so I am putting a lot of stock into the solution it has overnight. Scattered showers are still possible tonight. Here is what our Future Trak model has at 9 PM. Best chance for rain will be across our western areas.

Future Trak 2

Most of the rain fizzles out after midnight, but then re-develops early Wednesday morning as the cold front moves through Hampton Roads.

Future Trak at 7 AM Wednesday

Future Trak at 7 AM Wednesday

The front will stall out across North Carolina, so I expect scattered showers to continue into the afternoon there. But we should see drier conditions by tomorrow afternoon across Southeast Virginia. Get ready for a much cooler day tomorrow too with highs in the lower 80s. This is a strong cold front for this time of year. Drier weather is expected Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid 80s. Average high this time of year is 88°.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Arthur Tornadoes Confirmed

July 9th, 2014 at 1:18 pm by under Weather

3 tornadoes were confirmed by the National Weather Service. These tornadoes occurred late Thursday night (July 3rd) and early Friday morning (July 4th) as Hurricane Arthur moved across Hampton Roads and Northeast North Carolina. All 3 tornadoes were rated an EF-0, the weakest rating on the EF-Scale. Typically, tornadoes produced within tropical systems are weak and quick spin-ups. But these tornadoes are still dangerous and capable of causing damage.

EF-0 Scale

EF-Scale

The first EF-0 tornado was confirmed near Saluda Road north of Ahoskie and tracked about one mile northwest to Hall Siding Road. This tornado occurred around 11:25 PM on July 3rd. An outbuilding was destroyed and a carport was removed from a house on Hall Siding Road. Plus a significant amount of crops were damaged on Saluda Road. Here is a map of the approximate location.

Arthur Tornado North Carolina

Arthur Tornado  – Near Ahoskie, North Carolina

A second EF-0 tornado was confirmed in Virginia Beach near Lynnwood. This tornado touched down around 1:15 AM on July 4th. Trees were snapped and uprooted along Lynndale Road and Kline Drive. Roof damage was reported due to a tree falling on a home. This same storm produced another EF-0 tornado in Norfolk near the Forest Lawn Cemetery around 1:40 AM on July 4th. Numerous trees were snapped and uprooted. Here are the approximate locations of the tornadoes.

Arthur Tornadoes - Virginia Beach & Norfolk

Arthur Tornadoes – Virginia Beach & Norfolk

Here are two photos of tree damage at the Forest Lawn Cemetery sent into reportit@wavy.com.

Tree Damage

Tree Damage at Forest Lawn Cemetery

Tree Damage at Forest Lawn Cemetery

Tree Damage at Forest Lawn Cemetery

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 

 


Back To The 90s This Week

July 6th, 2014 at 9:15 pm by under Weather

Hurricane Arthur moved out just in time for folks to enjoy the holiday weekend. I hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July. Highs on Saturday were around 80° and today we saw highs in the low to mid 80s. Average high this time of year is 87°. The heat and the humidity will make a big return this week starting tomorrow.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We are tracking a weak area of low pressure off the coast of Florida and Georgia that will move northeast during the day tomorrow. The low may get close enough to North Carolina to bring the Outer Banks a few showers tomorrow, but chances are only running around 20%-30%. The rest of the region will remain hot and dry with highs in the lower 90s. Winds will turn more southwesterly tomorrow, ushering in the warmer air to the south.

Hot & Humid Early in the Week

Hot & Humid Early in the Week

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Average high on Tuesday is 88°, while the record is 102° set back in 2012. A large upper level trough  (big dip in the jetstream) will move east and bring a cold front closer to Hampton Roads by Wednesday afternoon, allowing for a few afternoon storms to develop.

Late This Week

Weather Pattern Late This Week

This cold front will stall out across Hampton Roads Thursday and Friday bringing better rain and storm chances to the region. Some computer models are even hinting that the front may linger across the region this weekend. Right now I have a slight chance for rain on Saturday. If the front remains draped across the area this weekend, then rain chances will be going up on Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the link to Jeremy’s latest blog on heat safety tips. Remember to take the heat seriously. Heat is the number one weather-related killer in the U.S. Stay cool this week!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


How Will Arthur Impact You?

July 3rd, 2014 at 7:10 pm by under Weather

*9 PM Update: Arthur is now a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.

The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has shifted a little bit more to west. This means that Hatteras Island along with the rest of the Outer Banks will get hit with the strongest part of the storm shortly after midnight. Remember the strongest part of the storm is the right front quadrant. Isolated tornadoes are also a threat within the right front quadrant, which is why a Tornado Watch has been issued for Mainland Dare County and Outer Banks Dare County until 2 AM.

Arthur's Track

Arthur’s Track

I’m showing you this wide view of Arthur and the cold front to the west because the cold front is very important to the forecast. This cold front will be moving through Hampton Roads overnight sparking off numerous showers and storms across the region. As the tropical moisture moves in, the potential for heavy rain will go up as well. Upper level winds ahead of the front are blowing from southwest to northeast, so these winds are going to push Arthur to the northeast or out to sea by late Friday morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Here is a close-up of Arthur on Super Doppler 10 Live. Storm is looking healthy and there is a well-defined eye south of the North Carolina coast.

Super Doppler 10 Radar

Super Doppler 10 Radar

Arthur is moving to the NNE at 15mph so the center should be near Hatteras around 2 AM. That means the strongest wind will move in before then, closer to around midnight for the Outer Banks and closer to 4-6 AM for Virginia.

I am going to break down what you can expect across your area over the next 12-24 hours.

Outer Banks including Hatteras Island, Rodanthe, Nags Head, Kill Devil Hills, Kitty Hawk and Corolla:

  • Sustained winds between 80-90 mph with gusts ranging from 100-110 for 4-6 hours
  • Rain Totals: 2″-5″
  • Waves: 14-20 feet
  • Storm Surge: 3-6 feet

Highway 12 will definitely see overwash and will likely be impassable down toward Rodanthe. Expect beach erosion. Prepare for widespread power outages.  We will likely see sound side flooding Friday morning. If you did not evacuate, make sure you have a hurricane kit ready in case power is out for hours/days. Secure your boat, board up your windows and make sure your cell phone is charged.

 Inland Northeast North Carolina:

  • Sustained winds between 40-50 mph with gusts up to 60 mph for 4-6 hours (Elizabeth City and points east)
  • Sustained winds between 20-30 mph with higher gusts for 4-6 hours. (West of Elizabeth City)
  • Rain Totals: 2″-4″

Bring in any loose patio furniture, garbage cans or anything that can be picked up by the wind. Prepare for scattered power outages and make sure your cell phone is charged.

Coastal Virginia, including Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake and Portsmouth:

  • Sustained winds between 35-45 with gusts up to 50 mph for 4-6 hours
  • Rain Totals: 1″-3″
  • Waves: 10-15 feet

Bring in any loose patio furniture, garbage cans or anything that can be picked up by the wind. Prepare for scattered power outages and make sure your cell phone is charged.

Inland Virginia (including Suffolk, Franklin), the Peninsula, Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore

  • Sustained winds between 25-35mph with gusts up to 45 mph for 4-6 hours
  • Rain Totals: 1″-3″

Bring in any loose patio furniture, garbage cans or anything that can be picked up by the wind. Prepare for scattered power outages and make sure your cell phone is charged.

We are not too concerned about tidal flooding across the Hampton Roads cities as the worst of the storm will be moving through during low tide, which is around 6:30-8:30 AM Friday. However we could see localized street flooding where the heaviest rain bands set up due to Arthur or the cold front moving eastward. Stay tuned!

 

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Arthur A Little Stronger Tonight

July 1st, 2014 at 9:26 pm by under Weather

Tropical Storm Arthur continues to strengthen over the warm waters near Florida. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 50mph and the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has Arthur becoming a category 1 hurricane as early as Thursday afternoon. That is a little bit earlier than the previous update.

Tropical Storm Arthur

Tropical Storm Arthur

The latest forecast models have trended a little bit more east with their solutions. Now most of the spaghetti plots are just east of Hatteras. The farther east this storm goes, the less of an impact it will have on us. We will have to see if this trends holds. Sometimes these spaghetti plots go back and forth.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

Here are the possible tracks and impacts with Arthur. If Arthur tracks west of Hatteras, then we will see more of an impact, especially along the Outer Banks.

Arthur Takes a Western Track

Arthur Takes a Western Track

Notice the areas highlighted in yellow and orange. This is where the heaviest rain and strongest winds will be located. The Outer Banks, parts of Northeastern North Carolina and coastal areas of Virginia could see heavy rain and tropical storm force winds. If Arthur does become a hurricane, then we could see hurricane force winds (74mph and higher) along the Outer Banks.  Inland sections of Virgina and North Carolina will still see rain and wind, but wind speeds will likely be less than tropical storm force strength.

If Arthur tracks east of Hatteras, then the worst of the storm will stay out to sea.

Arthur Takes Eastern Track

Arthur Takes Eastern Track

The yellow area shows the heaviest rain and strongest winds staying offshore. We will still see rain and gusty winds, but winds will likely stay below 40mph.
We are still 3 days out, so the track will shift. Right now, you should have a hurricane kit ready to go. Find out what to put in your hurricane kit here. If you plan on traveling, it may be a good idea to leave early if possible, to beat the worst of the weather Thursday night into Friday morning. Have a back-up plan in place for any outdoor activities that are planned. Folks along the Outer Banks need to prepare for possible evacuations just in case this storm takes a more western route.

11 PM Update: The National Hurricane Center has shifted the track slightly to the east.

11 PM Update on Tropical Storm Arthur

11 PM Update on Tropical Storm Arthur

Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will have another update on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 tomorrow morning.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 

 

 


Tropical Depression ONE Has Formed

June 30th, 2014 at 9:18 pm by under Weather

11 PM Update:

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this disturbance to a Tropical Depression with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. Here is the official track from the National Hurricane Center. Tropical Depression ONE is forecast to become Arthur tomorrow. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will have another update on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 AM and another blog tomorrow morning on wavy.com. Stay tuned!

Tropical Depression ONE

Tropical Depression ONE

 

We are still tracking the area of low pressure spinning off the coast of Florida. This low is bringing heavy rain to parts of Florida and the Bahamas. The Hurricane Hunters flew into this disturbance today and found this well defined low to be just under the threshold to be called a tropical depression because it’s lacking thunderstorm activity on the north side of the storm. Some dry air is located on the north side of the system inhibiting thunderstorm formation. They found peak sustained winds to range between 30-35mph. The low will be moving into an area with warmer water and lower wind shear, so any increase in thunderstorm activity would prompt the National Hurricane Center to upgrade this disturbance to a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance an 80% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours. If this low strengthens and becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Tropical Storm Arthur.

Low Spinning off the Coast of Florida

Low Spinning off the Coast of Florida

The computer models are in good agreement that this low is going to meander near Florida until Wednesday. Then it will turn more northerly and track along the East Coast.

Computer Models

Computer Models

There is high confidence that this disturbance will track close to Hampton Roads.  How close will it get and how strong will it become are the two big questions right now. If the low takes one of the more western tracks, then we could see heavy rain and gusty winds. If the low takes a more easterly track, then the heaviest rain will miss Hampton Roads, but we will still see rain thanks to a cold front moving through on Friday. Expect rough surf Thursday and Friday at the beaches. I don’t think tidal flooding will be a big problem because winds will only be out of the northeast for a few hours on Friday before switching back to the northwest as the system gets kicked out to sea by the cold front. However, flash flooding is not out of the question, especially if we see heavy rain over the same areas for a long period of time.

Strangely enough, this low pressure area is forecast to take a similar track to Tropical Storm Arthur back in June of 1996. Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall across Cape Lookout, North Carolina and brought heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.

Tropical Storm Arthur

Tropical Storm Arthur – June 1996

I know a lot of folks are traveling or planning outdoor activities for the Fourth of July. Now is the time to start thinking of a back-up plan in case Friday ends up being a washout. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. At least the weekend is looking warm and dry!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Tracking the Storm Off the Florida Coast

June 29th, 2014 at 8:48 pm by under Weather

After a quiet weather weekend in Hampton Roads, our attention shifts toward an area of low pressure spinning off the coast of Florida. Showers and storms continue to develop around this low.

Low Pressure East of Florida

Low Pressure East of Florida

This low is slowly moving to the southwest due to weak steering currents in the atmosphere. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours and an 80% chance over the next 5 days.  This low will be moving into a more favorable environment over the next few days (warmer water, lower wind shear), so development is expected. If this disturbance becomes our first named storm of the 2014 season, it will be named Arthur. Here is a look at a number of forecast models over the next 5 days.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

Notice that all of the computer models have the low moving southwest tomorrow. Then it starts to make that northerly turn Tuesday and Wednesday. I put the text Wednesday on the graphic to show that the storm will not be impacting us over the next few days. However, that changes as we move closer to Friday. Most of the computer models keep this low as a weak system that stays offshore. Keep in mind that there is a chance this disturbance may not strengthen and may just end up as a weak area of low pressure. But there are a few models that have this storm strengthening and making landfall in North Carolina. The European model has one of the more westerly tracks with the storm staying just east of the Outer Banks. The most recent update of the GFS model has come in with a more westerly track too, but a much weaker system compared to the European. Either way, it looks like there is a possibility this storm could impact Hampton Roads and North Carolina on Friday (Fourth of July) if it does indeed develop. The closer the storm tracks to Hampton Roads, the more rain and wind we will see. A weak cold front will be moving into Hampton Roads on Friday as well, so any addition of tropical moisture would just increase the potential for heavy rain. This cold front and associated upper level trough should push this disturbance out to sea at some point this weekend. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this disturbance tomorrow. Once they find more information, that data will get put into the computer models, so the models can have a better handle on the storm.

Besides this area of low pressure spinning off the coast of Florida, our local weather has been quiet and will remain quiet over the next few days. More heat and humidity are in the forecast though. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow with more 90s in the forecast starting on Tuesday. High pressure breaks down by Tuesday and then it’s back to a typical summer pattern with pop-up showers and storms possible Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances stay in the forecast on Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned! I will have another update coming up on WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Summer Is Here

June 22nd, 2014 at 9:13 pm by under Weather

Summer officially began Saturday morning at 6:51 AM, but it didn’t really feel like summer this weekend. It felt more like summer last week when we saw highs in the mid to upper 90s! Highs on Saturday were in the low to mid 80s and today we saw highs around 80°. Average high this time of year is 86°.

Sunday Highs

Sunday Highs

Monday will be dry and we will see more sunshine with highs in the lower 80s with low humidity. The weather pattern is going to be somewhat similar to the pattern we saw last week. The difference is that the ridge of high pressure will not be as amplified, which means it will not be as strong as last week. Therefore, high temperatures by the middle of the week will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, not the mid to upper 90s.

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

Since the ridge of high pressure will not be as strong, it will flatten out by the middle of the week allowing upper level disturbances to pass through the region. The chance for summertime afternoon storms will go up starting on Wednesday. These storms will likely be diurnally driven, meaning that they will be driven by daytime heating. We are not looking at any washouts this week. Here are the rain chances.

Rain Chances This Week

Rain Chances This Week

Hope you all have a good week!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona