Tiffany Savona WAVY

Biggest Waves on Wednesday

August 26th, 2014 at 5:56 pm by under Weather

Wave heights will increase even more tomorrow thanks to Hurricane Cristobal.

Wave Heights

Wave Heights on Wednesday at 3 PM

Wave heights should range from 4-5 feet at Virginia Beach and from 5-7 feet at the Outer Banks tomorrow. I think Cape Hatteras could see even higher waves ranging from 7-9 feet. Remember the risk for rip currents will be very high. That means the water will be extremely dangerous for swimmers. We will likely see red flags flying at the beaches tomorrow. Make sure you go to a beach with lifeguards, since the water will be rough. Surfers, winds will be blowing out of the northeast around 10-15mph along the coast. Cristobal will take a hard right turn on Thursday and move away from the East Coast, so the swell will begin to fade a little bit. Here are the forecast wave heights through Friday.

Wave Heights This Week

Wave Heights This Week

Wave heights should really drop down by the weekend and the threat for rip currents will drop too, which is good for all of the vacationers here for the Labor Day Weekend.

Here is the 5 PM update on Hurricane Cristobal. Maximum sustained winds are still at 75mph. The wind shear is starting to decrease, so Cristobal is looking like a healthier storm on satellite imagery. Cristobal is expected to strengthen even more tomorrow and on Thursday.

Hurricane Cristobal

Hurricane Cristobal – 5 PM Update

Our weather is going to remain quiet as high pressure remains in control. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 80s. The heat and humidity will return by the weekend.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Tidal Flooding, Cooler Weather, Tropics Update

August 24th, 2014 at 8:41 pm by under Weather

As the title suggests, there is a lot to talk about in the weather department. Our strong northeast winds will continue tonight and so will the risk of nuisance tidal flooding. Tides will be running higher than normal tonight and tomorrow thanks to the persistent northeast winds and the new moon tomorrow night. If you saw nuisance tidal flooding this morning, you will definitely see it again tonight as water levels should rise even more. Here is the forecast for Sewells Point, which is a benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads and parts of the Peninsula, including Hampton and Newport News.

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Water levels will be rising in Yorktown and this could impact parts of York, Gloucester and Mathews Counties tonight. Here is the forecast.

Yorktown Water Levels

Yorktown Tide Forecast

Wind speeds should range from 5-10mph inland and from 10-15mph along the coast overnight. It will be a cool and breezy night with lows in the mid/upper 60s along the coast and lower 60s inland. You may even need the light jacket or sweater early Monday morning.

Forecast Lows Tonight

Forecast Lows Tonight

A ridge of high pressure will build in tomorrow and keep us dry for most of the week. The strong northeast winds will keep us on the cool side once again tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to around 80°. Average high temperature this time of year is 84°. With the higher than normal tides, there will also be a high risk for rip currents at the beaches and higher surf tomorrow. Wave heights should be between 3-4 feet. Even though we will see perfect beach weather tomorrow, the water will be dangerous to swimmers. Swim near a lifeguard if possible and if caught in a rip current, make sure you swim parallel to the shore until you can swim out of it.

Tropical Update:

Tropical Storm Cristobal is spinning over the Bahamas tonight. Cristobal is expected to slow down as it encounters weak steering currents Monday and Tuesday. This storm is expected to strengthen to a category 1 hurricane by Wednesday as it moves over warmer water and into an area with less wind shear.

Tropical Storm Cristobal

Tropical Storm Cristobal

The computer models are now in better agreement with the track staying out to sea. If you check yesterday’s blog, you can see the cone of uncertainty was touching North and South Carolina. Now, the cone has been shifted eastward as the models have trended more east with their solutions. I noticed this trend last night.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

A trough will move off the East Coast on Wednesday and help keep this storm out to sea. The only impacts that we will see here in Hampton Roads from Cristobal will be higher surf and a high threat for rip currents all week along. Right now it looks like the highest waves will be on Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Tropical Depression Four

August 23rd, 2014 at 8:58 pm by under Weather

Tropical Depression Four developed across the southern Bahamas earlier today. The Hurricane Hunters finally found a closed circulation. Maximum sustained winds are at 35mph for now. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by tomorrow. Cristobal is the next name on the list. Forecasts have this storm becoming a category 1 hurricane by the middle of next week.

Tropical Depression Four

Tropical Depression Four

Notice that part of the cone of uncertainty includes the eastern parts of North and South Carolina. Most of the models keep this system offshore, passing somewhere between the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda. However, there are a few models that take the storm closer to the coast. So, the cone takes these models into account too.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

Right now, there is not enough agreement among the computer models to have a high confidence forecast at this point. The 12Z European model run and the 18Z GFS model run have the storm tracking more east than its previous runs. This could be a trend and is something to watch. Here are the 2 scenarios. If this storm takes a track closer to the coast, then we will could see rain, gusty winds and rough surf Thursday and Friday. If this storm tracks more offshore, then we won’t see any rain or wind. We will still see higher surf by the middle of next week, which is great news for surfers.

Local Weather Update: A few more showers are possible tonight as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Northeast winds will stay up tomorrow too and should range from 10-20mph with gusts up to 25 mph at times. Expect a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s and lower humidity. Average high this time of year is 84°.

Forecast Wind Speeds on Sunday

Forecast Wind Speeds on Sunday

These persistent northeast winds, along with the almost new moon, will create higher than normal tides. Nuisance tidal flooding will be possible during times of high tide Sunday and Monday. This graph shows the time of high tide along with the forecast water level at Sewells Point, which is a benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads.

Sewells Point Tides

Sewells Point Tides

Along with the higher tides, there will also be a high risk for rip currents at the local beaches tomorrow. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay tuned for more updates on Tropical Depression Four. I will have a complete update on WAVY News 10 at 11 and Jeff Edmondson will be here on WAVY News 10 at 6:00 Sunday morning.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Strong Thunderstorms Across Hampton Roads

August 18th, 2014 at 6:44 pm by under Weather

****See Midnight Update Below****

Thunderstorms developed off to our west earlier today. These storms moved across Hampton Roads early in the evening.

Shelf Cloud Moving into Norfolk

Shelf Cloud Moving into Norfolk

Look at the shelf cloud in this picture! A shelf cloud is the line of bright white clouds that you see in the picture. These types of clouds are usually on the leading edge of a thunderstorm. When you see a cloud like this it usually means the thunderstorm is strong and will contain strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Some areas in Virginia Beach saw over 2 inches of rain in under an hour. This caused street flooding in many areas. Looking ahead to tonight we should start to see a break from the thunderstorms, but the rain will continue.

Future Trak at 12 AM

Future Trak at 12 AM

Most of the rain should push offshore by tomorrow morning.

Future Trak Tomorrow at 5am

Future Trak Tomorrow at 5am

Scattered showers with an occasional rumble may occur, otherwise the severe threat is going to be low. We will keep an eye on these storms as we go into the evening.

Midnight Update:

Scattered showers will continue overnight. Severe weather threat is over, but heavy rain is still possible. Here are Tuesday’s rain chances starting at midnight tonight.

Tuesday's Rain Chances

Tuesday’s Rain Chances

Scattered showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but the rain shouldn’t be as widespread as what we saw today. Rain will be hit or miss.

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Tune into WAVY News 10 Today at 4:30 AM for another update with Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler.

Meteorologists Jeff Edmondson & Tiffany Savona.


Rain Chances Going Up on Monday

August 17th, 2014 at 9:02 pm by under Weather

The heat and the higher humidity will be here to stay this week and rain chances will be going up too. Right now the best chance for rain this week looks to be Monday afternoon/evening into early Tuesday. We are tracking an upper level disturbance that is producing showers and storms across Kentucky and Tennessee right now.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This upper level disturbance is going to provide some cool air aloft. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90° tomorrow. So the hot air will rise and showers and storms will be able to develop. A stationary front will be located to our north, so we may see enhanced activity across our northern zones since that boundary will be a focal point for additional showers and storms. We should start off dry Monday morning with lots of clouds and temperatures in the 70s. Showers and storms will start to develop by the early afternoon. Notice that the rain is still hit or miss at this point.

Future Trak at 3 PM

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

The rain becomes more widespread as we get closer to 6 PM.

Future Trak at 6 PM

Future Trak at 6 PM

The stronger storms will contain heavy rain, since we have plenty of moisture to work with across the region. The rain will continue Monday night and into Tuesday.  Rainfall totals should range from 0.75″-1.5″ on average. Higher totals are possible in areas that see heavy rain. If you want to go to the beach tomorrow, the earlier you go, the better. By the afternoon, you may have to dodge the showers and storms. There will be a lot of clouds, so don’t expect much sunshine. There will also be a low risk for rip currents at the beaches.

Make sure you take the umbrella to work with you tomorrow! Chances are you won’t need it in the morning, but will need it by the afternoon.

Monday's Rain Chances

Monday’s Rain Chances

Tropical Update:

We are watching an area of showers and storms in the central Atlantic between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center is giving this a 30% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 5 days.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Heavy Rain & Lots of Lightning

August 12th, 2014 at 11:33 pm by under Weather

Talk about a light show tonight! We had some strong storms move through the Middle Peninsula, Peninsula and Eastern Shore earlier this evening. We told you the activity would be scattered and it most certainly was. Some folks got nothing while others got hammered. The strongest storm moved across the Middle Peninsula around 6 PM. It was a slow mover, so it dumped a couple inches of rain in some spots in a short amount of time.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar at 6PM

Pam, our weather watcher in Gloucester Courthouse, received 1.75″ of rain tonight. Steve in Ware Neck, in Mathews County, saw over 2 inches of rain. This same storm continued to move east over the Chesapeake Bay. The storm intensified as it moved closer to the Eastern Shore.

Satellite/Radar at 8 PM

Satellite/Radar at 8 PM

I noticed some rotation with this storm as it was over the Chesapeake Bay around 8:12 PM, so there is a possibility there was a waterspout occurring at that time. When we see the red colors and the green colors touching, that means we are seeing rotation within the storm. Luckily, the rotation weakened as it moved closer to the Eastern Shore.

Rotation Over The Bay

Rotation Over The Bay

Heavy rain was the main threat tonight due to the high moisture content in the atmosphere and the slow movement of the storms. Here is a picture of the estimated rain totals across the region. It doesn’t have any numbers because I wanted to show where the heaviest rain fell. Most areas highlighted in green received between 1-3 inches of rain, while some spots saw more.

Radar Estimates

24- Hour Radar Estimates

Here is a picture of the street flooding across the Eastern Shore tonight. Jason send these photos into reportit@wavy.com

Cape Charles Street Flooding

Cape Charles Street Flooding

Cape Charles Street Flooding

Cape Charles Street Flooding

Folks that did not see the heavy rain saw a light show tonight with that strong storm over the Chesapeake Bay. I even captured a few lightning strikes on Tower Cam 10.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Check out this awesome picture sent in from Dan of the lightning at Croatan Beach.

Croatan Lightning

Croatan Lightning

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue overnight, but the severe weather threat is winding down. We may see a few showers develop along the front tomorrow morning. Once the front moves in, drier air will move into the area. It will still be warm with highs in the mid 80s. The humidity will really drop by Thursday and Friday as highs will only reach the lower 80s. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will have the latest forecast coming up on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 AM.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Supermoon, Higher Tides, More Rain Chances

August 10th, 2014 at 9:07 pm by under Weather

Tonight’s full moon is a supermoon, one of the five supermoons in 2014. A supermoon is when a new or full moon occurs at the same time the moon is at its closest point to Earth in its orbit. This supermoon in particular is the closest supermoon of the year, so it will appear bigger and brighter than all of the other full moons this year. On average, we see about 4-6 supermoons each year. The next and last supermoon of the year is on September 9th. Here is the view out of Tower Cam 10.

Supermoon Sunday

Supermoon Sunday

Tides are going to be higher than normal and lower than normal for the next few days. I put together this graphic showing the water levels for Sewells Point, which is a benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads. The threshold for minor tidal flooding occurs at 4.5 feet. Water levels should get close to 4 feet late tonight and during times of high tide tomorrow. When we see water levels get close to 4 feet, we can expect to see some nuisance tidal flooding.

Sewells Point Tides

Sewells Point Tides

Winds will increase out of the southeast tomorrow, so with an onshore wind and higher than normal tides, we are going to see a high risk for rip currents along the beaches tomorrow. Wave heights should range between 2-3+ feet. Moisture levels should also increase tomorrow, so we can’t rule out a few isolated showers, but many areas should miss out on the rain. Future Trak has a few rain showers developing around 12 PM.

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Any rain that develops tomorrow will be hit or miss. Rain chances really increase on Tuesday as our next storm system gets closer to us. The cold front will move in Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, rain chances will go away and we should cool back down into the lower 80s.

Tropics Update:

We are watching an area of showers and storms spinning south of the Cape Verde Islands, which is just west of the African coast. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a medium chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 5 days. Some computer models have it strengthening, as it moves west, and getting close to the Lesser Antilles by next weekend. This area of disturbed weather is still very far away, so we will have plenty of time to track it.

Invest 94 Tracks

Invest 94 Computer Model Tracks

Have a great work week!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Sunday’s Looking Dry For Most

August 9th, 2014 at 8:08 pm by under Weather

Some of us saw clouds today, while others saw rain. Some areas in North Carolina saw rain for most of the day! Check out these rain totals. Most of our Virginia counties missed out on the rain.

24-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

Areas that did see rain today could see patchy fog develop by tomorrow morning. Sunday’s forecast is looking drier.  With high pressure close by and the stationary front moving south into South Carolina, the best rain chances tomorrow will be well to the south of us, into South Carolina and Georgia. There will be a slight chance for an isolated shower, but most areas will stay dry tomorrow.

Sunday's Rain Chances

Sunday’s Rain Chances

I think we will start off with the clouds and then see a few more peeks of sunshine by tomorrow afternoon. High will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. If you plan on going to the beach tomorrow, keep in mind that there will be a moderate threat for rip currents. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


More Heat, Humidity, Plus the Chance for Storms (Updated)

August 6th, 2014 at 9:31 am by under Weather

Midday Update: Bertha is now a post-tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. This means Bertha has lost its tropical characteristics and has merged with a frontal system offshore. This was the same system that brought us the rain over the past few days. A few showers and storms have already developed over Virginia Beach this afternoon. Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be tracking the storms for you on WAVY News 10 starting at 4 PM. You can always track the rain and storms on Super Doppler 10 Live.

The 90° heat is back, but not for too long. High temperatures should hit 90° for many locations this afternoon with highs the mid/upper 80s for coastal area. We haven’t see Norfolk hit 90° for about 2 weeks now. We are also tracking a cold front that will bring us a chance for showers and storms this afternoon. The cold front won’t move in until after midnight so any storms that develop this afternoon will be along a pre-frontal trough (wind shift line) and will likely be hit or miss. Storms will be possible anytime after 12 PM. Our Future Trak model has a few storms developing by 2 PM. Any storm that develops could be on the strong side with gusty winds and heavy rain as the main threats.

Future Trak at 2 PM

Future Trak at 2 PM

Rain chances will be a little be higher tonight as a cold front gets closer to the region.

Future Trak at 9 PM

Future Trak at 9 PM

Cold front will move through Hampton Roads after midnight tonight and should be south of the area by tomorrow morning. Thursday is looking cooler and drier overall with highs in the lower 80s and lower humidity.

Tropical Storm Bertha is still spinning out in the Atlantic and has maximum sustained winds of 50mph. Bertha is currently moving over an area with high wind shear. This should help weaken Bertha even more. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Bertha weakening to an area of low pressure early tomorrow morning. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bertha weakened to an area of low pressure tonight.

Tropical Storm Bertha

Tropical Storm Bertha

Bertha does not pose any threat to land, but it did impact use here in Hampton Roads yesterday. We saw higher waves yesterday and a high risk for rip currents. Wave heights will not be as high as yesterday, but will still be running above normal during the day today. Here is your beach forecast. The water will still be rough for swimmers, so swim near a lifeguard if possible.

Beach Forecast

Beach Forecast

If you plan on beating the heat by going to the pool or to the beach, make sure you keep an eye to the sky to watch for developing storms.

While Bertha weakens in the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific is really heating up with tropical activity. Hurricane Iselle is a category 1 hurricane and moving straight toward the Big Island of Hawaii. Iselle is forecast to weaken over the next few days as it impacts Hawaii Thursday and Friday. Julio was just upgraded to a hurricane early this morning.  Julio is currently trailing Iselle and could impact Hawaii by the end of the weekend. So Hawaii could get hit by 2 storms within a couple days of each other.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Tuesday 5 PM Bertha Update, Surf Forecast

August 5th, 2014 at 5:38 pm by under Weather

The 5 PM update from the National Hurricane Center is in and Bertha weakens even more. Maximum sustained winds are at 50mph. Bertha continues to weaken because it is currently moving into an area with very high wind shear especially on the west side of the storm.

Tropical Storm Bertha

Tropical Storm Bertha Weakens Even More

As Bertha weakens and moves farther away from the East Coast, wave heights will begin to subside. But the swell is still looking good for surfers tomorrow morning, especially since the winds will be more southwesterly at 5-10mph. Check out the forecast wave heights at 7 AM Wednesday morning. Waves will be biggest in the morning and then will start to come down during the afternoon.

Wave Heights Wednesday Morning

Wave Heights Wednesday Morning

Virginia Beach, Sandbridge, Croatan Wave Forecast:

AM: 2-4 feet
PM: 2-3 feet

Outer Banks Wave Forecast:

AM: 3-5 feet
PM: 3-4 feet

*Remember that red flags will likely be up at the beaches tomorrow due to a high risk for rip currents. Red flags mean that the water is dangerous for swimmers.

Weather looks good for the most part if you plan on going to the beach tomorrow. We will start off with partly cloudy conditions with temperatures in the 70s. The heat and humidity will be back too with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the coast with lower 90s inland. Keep an eye on the sky tomorrow afternoon as we will be tracking the chance for a few pop-up showers and storms out ahead of a cold front. Cold front will move through late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. We will dry out and cool back down Thursday afternoon with highs in the lower 80s.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona