Tiffany Savona WAVY

Wednesday Midday Update

October 15th, 2014 at 1:21 pm by under Weather

So far we have seen scattered showers this morning. Now, the main line of showers and storms is pushing into our western counties. The large area of rain will be in the metro area in the next hour or so, between 2-3 PM. Heavy rain and gusty winds will still be the main threats.  Our instability remains limited, which is why we haven’t seen many thunderstorms. A few may develop this afternoon, but this is not looking like a big severe weather event. Our latest hi-resolution computer model has widespread showers and storms by 3 PM.

Future Trak at 3 PM Weds

Future Trak at 3 PM Weds

Rain looks to become more scattered by the 5 PM, so the evening commute may not be that bad.

Future Trak at 5 PM Weds

Future Trak at 5 PM Weds

The cold front will move through Hampton Roads from west to east early this evening. Rain will taper off before midnight, so Thursday is looking much drier. We should start off with a mix of sun and clouds Thursday morning. Then the clouds will fill back in thanks to an upper level low overhead. We may even see a few sprinkles by Thursday evening. Cooler and drier weather is expected Friday through the weekend. Meteorologist Don Slater and I will have a full update coming up on WAVY News 10 starting at 4 PM.

In the tropics, Gonzalo is now a Category 4 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. This is the first category 4 storm since Ophelia back in 2011. This major hurricane will impact Bermuda early Friday. Gonzalo will stay away from the U.S.

Hurricane Gonzalo

Hurricane Gonzalo

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Warm, Windy & Stormy Wednesday

October 14th, 2014 at 9:18 pm by under Weather

Changes are coming over the next 12-24 hours. We have been tracking a very powerful storm system that has brought severe weather to many states over the past few days. This cold front will move into Hampton Roads tomorrow evening.

Tracking The Cold Front

Tracking The Cold Front

I think the rain will stay off to our west overnight, but we may see showers and storms fire up early tomorrow morning around 7 AM. Any discrete storm will have the potential to turn strong, even during the morning hours.

Future Trak at 7 AM Weds

Future Trak at 7 AM Weds

It looks like we may get a break for a few hours before a second line of showers and storms moves through the region. This second round of storms could also be strong, but that highly depends on what happens in the morning. If we see more rain and more clouds in the morning, then the storms will be weaker during the afternoon. If we see more sunshine in the morning, then the storms that develop during the afternoon will have more instability to work with.

Future Trak at 3 PM Wednesday

Future Trak at 3 PM Wednesday

The best chance for rain and storms will be between 1-7 PM. The main threats with any storm will be the chance for damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. The tornado threat is low, but not out of the question. This system has a lot of energy along with it, so we will have plenty of wind shear in the atmosphere. Forecast rain totals are going to be about 1 inch on average. However, if you get stuck under a thunderstorm, then you could see higher totals. Wednesday will still be warm and windy with highs around 80° and southerly winds from 15-25mph. The front will clear most of the area just after sunset. We could see a few lingering showers Wednesday night, but the storm threat will be over. The latest computer models are pushing the rain out a little bit earlier on Thursday. Rain should be done before 8 AM on Thursday. Clouds should break up a bit by Thursday afternoon. Then we will see the clouds build back in thanks to the upper level low sitting overhead. There may even be a few sprinkles by Thursday night. Cooler and drier weather will be back just in time for the weekend.

Tropical Update:

Hurricane Gonzalo is now a category 3 storm and the second major hurricane of the year. Gonzalo will continue to strengthen and is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane at some point tomorrow. This storm will move right over Bermuda on Friday, so the island needs to prepare for another hurricane. This is just one week after Fay damaged parts of Bermuda this past weekend.

Hurricane Gonzalo

Hurricane Gonzalo

The storm system that will move through Hampton Roads tomorrow will steer Gonzalo to the east and keep it away from the East Coast of U.S. We will see some higher surf by the end of the week and into the weekend.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Heating Up Across Hampton Roads & The Tropics

October 12th, 2014 at 9:09 pm by under Weather

Our warming trend begins tomorrow in Hampton Roads and the tropics are becoming more active too. First we will talk about our local weather. It was cloudy and cool today with highs only in the upper 60s for many of you. The clouds will stick around on Monday, but it will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The reason we are going to be warmer tomorrow is because a ridge of high pressure will build into Hampton Roads. The jet stream will slide to our north as our next storm system gains some energy across the Central Plains.

Monday Set-Up

Monday Set-Up

Our southeasterly winds will increase our moisture levels tomorrow. Since our moisture levels will be on the rise, we can’t rule out a few isolated showers Monday afternoon, but most areas should remain dry. Our latest Future Trak model only has a few showers developing by 3 PM.

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

The cold front will get closer to us on Wednesday, therefore Tuesday will be even warmer with highs in the lower 80s. Wednesday will be a day of change. We may see a few showers in the morning, but the main area of showers and storms won’t arrive until late in the day on Wednesday. Some of the storms may be on the strong side. Rain will continue into early Thursday morning.  The computer models are still in disagreement with the timing of the rain. The GFS model pushes all of the rain east of us early Thursday morning. The European model is slower and keeps the rain here until Thursday evening. We will probably see the models meet somewhere in the middle, so stay tuned for changes. Cooler and drier weather will move in behind the front. Highs will drop into the 70s Friday and Saturday and lows will be in the 50s. Next weekend is looking great so far!

Tropical Update:

The tropics are also heating up! We have 2 systems spinning in the Atlantic Ocean right now. Fay became a Category 1 Hurricane at 5 PM. Fay brought tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to the island of Bermuda last night and early this morning. There have been reports of thousands without power, downed trees, some roof damage and flooding across the island. Fay is moving east northeast and is forecast to rapidly weaken Monday and Tuesday.

11 PM Update: Fay has now weakened to a tropical storm.

Hurricane Fay

Hurricane Fay

Hampton Roads will see higher surf Monday and Tuesday thanks to the swell from Fay. Expect wave heights to range between 3-4 feet for Virginia Beach and 4-5 feet for the Outer Banks Monday. Wave heights will come down on Tuesday, but should range between 2-3 feet for Virginia Beach and 3-4 feet for the Outer Banks. The water temperature is around 69-70 degrees at this time. Surf conditions won’t be ideal since winds will be strong out of the southeast both Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo developed just east of the Lesser Antilles around 1:30 this afternoon. Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday as it moves westward toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Many of the global computer models have Gonzalo interacting with the same cold front that will impact Hampton Roads this week. This front should steer Gonzalo to the east, which would keep the storm out to sea and away from the U.S. Stay tuned for more updates!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Cooling Down!

October 11th, 2014 at 9:18 pm by under Weather

It was a warm day for some and a cool day for others depending on when the cold front moved through your neighborhood. Check out the highs across the region.

Highs Today

Highs Today

Heavy rain moved across Virginia and North Carolina early this morning. Then we saw a break for much of the afternoon before another round of showers and storms developed along the cold front as it pushed into North Carolina. Most areas saw around 0.25″, while others saw much more than that.

24-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

Rain should taper off late tonight and lows will drop into the upper 50s. Sunday will be much cooler and breezy. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 60s and it will feel even cooler with a strong northeast breeze. A few showers are possible during the afternoon, but the rain will be very hit or miss.

Future Trak 3 PM Sunday

Future Trak 3 PM Sunday

Monday and Tuesday will be warmer with highs in the 70s on Monday and 80s on Tuesday.  A strong cold front will move into the region Wednesday night. Showers and storms will likely develop out ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and continue into early Thursday morning. Some of the storms could be on the strong side. Thursday and Friday will be cooler with highs in the 60s on Thursday and 70s on Friday.

Tropical Update:

Tropical Storm Fay continues to move northward tonight. Fay will bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rain to Bermuda tonight as it passes just east of the island.

Tropical Storm Fay

Tropical Storm Fay

Fay will stay out to sea, but will bring us higher surf Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. We are watching another area of showers and storms just east of the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center is giving this area of disturbed weather a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours and a 60% chance over the next 5 days. The next name is Gonzalo.

Area to Watch

Area to Watch

Computer models track this disturbance westward toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic over the next few days. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Cooler Weather Is Short-Lived

October 5th, 2014 at 9:14 pm by under Weather

It was a perfect fall day in my opinion! A bit chilly in the morning with lows in the 40s for most areas. But some of our inland spots saw lows in the 30s this morning! It was the coolest morning since last spring, more specifically last April. The record low at Norfolk Airport this morning was 40° set back in 1974. So we didn’t break any records, but we were close.

Lows This Morning

Lows This Morning

High temperatures did reach the mid 60s this afternoon. We saw this cooler weather thanks to a big dip in the jet stream this weekend. A strong cold front moved in on Saturday. Cooler and drier air from Canada moved into the northern U.S. and continued to push south this weekend.

Big Dip in the Jet Stream

Big Dip in the Jet Stream This Weekend

We are going to have ideal conditions (clear skies and light winds) for radiational cooling overnight. This means that all of the heat that was stored during the day will escape back into space at night. This process allows temperatures to drop quickly overnight. Sometimes the temperature can drop all the way to the dew point temperature. When this happens fog develops (frost develops if temperatures are at or below 32 degrees.) Tomorrow morning will be similar to what we experienced this morning. Upper 30s west, low to mid 40s for most areas and then upper 40s close to the coast. Make sure you give the kids the sweater/sweatshirt/jacket before they head out to catch the school bus in the morning.

Forecast Lows Overnight

Forecast Lows Overnight

Southwesterly winds will take over tomorrow and help temperatures rise into the mid 70s Monday afternoon. The jet stream is going to move north by the middle of the week, which is going to allow warmer air to move in by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Warm Air Returns This Week

Warm Air Returns This Week

The weather will stay quiet this week with the jet stream sliding to our north. A weak mid-level disturbance will produce showers to our north and west Tuesday night. A few of these showers may move into Hampton Roads late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but chances are low. It looks like most of the rain will stay north of us. Highs will be in the upper 70s on Tuesday and around 80° on Wednesday. Our next cold front will arrive this weekend and bring us a better chance for rain Friday night into Saturday. If the front stalls out, we could be talking about more rain on Sunday. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Wednesday Evening Update

September 24th, 2014 at 5:10 pm by under Weather

It has been a rainy, nasty and windy day across Hampton Roads. Here is the view outside of Tower Cam 10.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

So far we have seen between 1-3 inches of rain depending on where you live.

24-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

More rain is likely tonight as the area of low pressure moves inland across North Carolina and Virginia. Rain should taper off after midnight from south to north as the low moves out over the ocean and pushes away from us. Here is our Future Trak computer model at 10 PM tonight.

Future Trak at 10 PM Tonight

Future Trak at 10 PM Tonight

Some drier air will try to push into some areas tomorrow, although we could still see a few showers on Thursday. Best chances for rain will be across the Eastern Shore before sunrise and across North Carolina during the late afternoon/evening.

Future Trak at 7 AM Thursday

Future Trak at 7 AM Thursday

Winds will stay up tonight and range between 15-25mph. We could see another round of nuisance tidal flooding during high tide tonight around 10 PM. Water levels are forecast to reach around 4 feet tonight. If you saw any nuisance tidal flooding this morning, then you will probably see additional tidal flooding again tonight. The weekend is looking great!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Rainy and Windy Wednesday

September 23rd, 2014 at 6:14 pm by under Weather

Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler wrote a long blog this morning about our developing coastal storm over the next 24 hours. Since he wrote that blog, there have been a few big changes to the forecast. The computer models are now bringing in the rain earlier. Rain should push into North Carolina tonight and Virginia early tomorrow morning. A few showers are trying to push into North Carolina this evening, but the rain is having a hard time reaching the ground because of the dry air in place. We have plenty of moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, but we are lacking surface moisture. The atmosphere should moisten up by tomorrow morning. That is when dew point readings will be in the 60s. Right now, dew point readings are in the 50s. So a few showers are possible overnight, but the widespread rain won’t move in until tomorrow.

Future Trak at 7 AM Weds

Future Trak at 7 AM Wednesday

The heaviest rain looks to fall tomorrow afternoon and then gradually taper off tomorrow night.

Future Trak at 12 PM

Future Trak at 12 PM Wednesday

Rain totals should range between 2-3 inches on average over the next 24-36 hours. There is a possibility we could see isolated higher totals along the coast.

Here are Wednesday’s rain chances. Luckily for us, this is not going to be a long lasting event. So we are not looking at major flooding, although we could see some street flooding and tidal flooding during times of high tide.

Wednesday Rain Chances

Wednesday Rain Chances

Along with the rain, the wind will really ramp up tomorrow. Wind speeds will range from 20-30mph with gusts up to 35mph at times.

Future Trak Wind Speeds

Future Trak Wind Speeds on Wednesday

With the strong northeast winds and a new moon tomorrow night, tides will be running higher than normal. Nuisance to minor tidal flooding will be possible during high tide tomorrow, especially in the morning around 10 AM. This is when water levels will be the highest, hovering near the minor tidal flooding threshold. If heavy rain is falling at this time, then the rain will not be able to drain properly in coastal areas, which could lead to bigger problems. Our computer model above shows that heavy rain could be falling during high tide, so make sure you move your car to higher ground if you experience tidal flooding often.

Sewells Point Tides

Sewells Point Tides

Thursday is looking much drier now. We may see a few showers before sunrise, but then drier weather is expected for the rest of the day. We will still see a lot of clouds on Thursday and highs will be in the mid 70s. Weekend is looking great right now.

*You can always track the rain on Super Doppler 10 Radar
*Latest forecast discussion can be found on wavy.com
* “Like” our WAVY TV 10 Facebook page and follow WAVY_Weather on Twitter for frequent updates

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have an updated forecast on WAVY News 10 at 11 and Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will be tracking the rain for you on WAVY News 10 Today starting at 4:30 AM Wednesday.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 


Hello Fall!

September 21st, 2014 at 8:36 pm by under Weather

Fall officially begins at 10:29 PM Monday night, so the first FULL day of fall is on Tuesday. Tomorrow is also known as the autumnal equinox, which is when the sun’s direct rays shine over Earth’s equator.  Our days will be getting shorter as we approach the start of winter. Between tomorrow (start of Fall) and December 21 (start of winter), we are going to lose a total of 2 hours and 31 minutes of daylight.

Shorter Days Coming

Shorter Days Coming

I am tracking a cold front that will move in tomorrow morning, so it should feel like fall as we start off the fall season.

Cold Front Moving East

Cold Front Moving East

Notice there are a few showers developing out ahead of this front. We are not expecting much in the way of rain as this front moves through Hampton Roads. We may see an isolated shower develop tonight/early Monday, but that’s about it. Most of the energy is going to lag behind the front and our moisture levels aren’t too impressive. Cold front will switch our winds out of the north and northeast at 10-15mph tomorrow. Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front. Here are the forecast dew points (surface moisture) on Monday. Notice that the dew point temperatures drop once the front moves into Hampton Roads. This is the best part of the forecast because humidity levels will be dropping tomorrow and will stay low Tuesday and part of Wednesday. It may be muggy outside when you are waking up Monday morning, but by Monday afternoon, it’s going to feel great!

Forecast Dew Points

Forecast Dew Points

Highs on Tuesday (first FULL day of fall) will only be around 70° with low humidity. Sounds like a perfect fall day to me! :)
High pressure will build into the region and our persistent northeast flow will stick around for the rest of the week. Tides are going to be running a little bit higher over the next few days, especially on Wednesday, when there is a new moon. Expect nuisance tidal flooding during times of high tide on Wednesday (9:51 AM, 10:06 PM).

The extended forecast is a little bit more complicated. The European model develops a wave of low pressure along the front offshore and brings some of that moisture into Virginia and North Carolina late Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. The GFS model keeps the rain to our south. Right now, I have Wednesday through Friday dry at this time. But we may need to put rain chances in the forecast if the GFS model trends more toward the European model. Stay tuned! Regardless of what happens, temperatures will be running below average for the rest of the week. Average high is 78° this time of year. Have a great Monday!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Fall-Like Weather Continues This Week

September 14th, 2014 at 9:43 pm by under Weather

The weather today was PERFECT in my opinion. Felt more like fall with highs in the low to mid 70s and low humidity. The official start of the fall season begins Monday, September 22, so we are only a week away. Hopefully you had a chance to get outside for a little bit this afternoon.

Sunday Highs

Sunday Highs

Cooler and drier air moved in behind the front last night. Wind speeds have really come down, but the clouds should hang around overnight. The cloud cover will prevent most areas from seeing the air temperature fall all the way to the dew point temperature. But we will see some inland areas drop down into the upper 50s. These inland spots may see some patchy fog develop by the morning. Here are the forecast low temperatures overnight. You may need a light jacket or sweater early in the morning.

Lows Tonight

Lows Tonight

Another pleasant day is expected on Monday! Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with low humidity and a light breeze. A cold front will move in early Tuesday morning and bring us a chance for a few showers. The rain doesn’t look like it will be widespread at this time, just a few hit or miss showers.

Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday

Future Trak at 7 AM Tuesday

We will dry out Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air will move back in and high temperatures will only be in the low to mid 70s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Average high this time of year is 80°.

Tropical Update:

Edouard has strengthened and is now a hurricane. Hurricane Edouard could reach category 3 status and become our first major hurricane of the year by Tuesday. Edouard is going to stay well out to sea, but should bring us higher waves Wednesday and Thursday.

Hurricane Edouard

Hurricane Edouard

Meanwhile Hurricane Odile is a monster category 3 hurricane spinning in the Eastern Pacific and headed toward Baja California. This dangerous hurricane could make landfall near Cabo San Lucas, a popular vacation destination, tonight or early Monday. This storm will move northwest and parallel the coast of Baja California over the next few days. Hurricane-force winds and coastal flooding can be expected. Heavy rain will lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Hopefully those folks have evacuated or are prepared for the worst.

Hurricane Odile

Hurricane Odile

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Rainy Tonight, Pleasant on Sunday!

September 13th, 2014 at 9:19 pm by under Weather

Heavy rain moved in earlier this afternoon and dropped a good amount of rain in a short amount of time. The heaviest rain moved across the Southside first and then moved across North Carolina. Check out some of these impressive rain totals!

Tonight's Rain Totals

Tonight’s Rain Totals

Elizabeth City recorded 2.53 inches and Edenton picked up a whopping 4.16 inches so far over a 2-3 hour period tonight. The heaviest rain has pushed south into the Albemarle Sound, so another round of heavy rain is possible for the Outer Banks before midnight. The rest of the region could see a few more light showers, but no more heavy rain is expected.

Cooler and drier air will filter in tonight and drop temperatures into the mid 60s by tomorrow morning with some lower 60s inland. Winds will stay up tonight out of the north and northeast from 10-15mph. We will start off with a lot of clouds tomorrow morning and then become partly cloudy by the afternoon. Sunday will feel like a typical fall day. Highs in the low to mid 70s with LOW humidity. It will feel GREAT! If you have any yard work to do, tomorrow is the day to do it.

Tropical Update:

Tropical Storm Edouard is still spinning in the central Atlantic. Edouard is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night. This storm will stay out to sea, but should bring us some higher surf Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

Tropical Storm Edouard

Tropical Storm Edouard

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona