Tiffany Savona WAVY

Stormy Tonight, Then Goodbye Heat & Humidity!

May 19th, 2015 at 6:15 pm by under Weather

We just have to get through the rainy and stormy weather tonight! Then we can say goodbye to the summer-like heat and humidity, at least for a few days. Showers and storms started developing across North Carolina earlier this afternoon. A marsh fire erupted in Mainland Dare County southwest of Manns Harbor. A lightning strike is expected to have sparked this fire. This picture was taken by Lisa looking toward Mainland Dare County.

March Fire - Mainland Dare County

Marsh Fire – Mainland Dare County

Showers and storms will continue to develop over the next few hours and the main threat tonight will be heavy rain, which could lead to localized street flooding. Check out this view out of Tower Cam 10 looking west out of Portsmouth. You can see the rain shaft on the left side of the picture.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Best chances for rain tonight will be between now and 10 PM. Here is what out Future Trak model has at 9 PM.

Future Trak at 9 PM Tonight

Future Trak at 9 PM Tonight

The front will move in shortly after midnight. We may see a stray shower along the front, but that is it. Then our northerly winds will pick up behind the front and drive in cooler and drier air. Winds will be running between 10-15mph gusting to 20mph at times. Highs on Wednesday will only be in the mid 70s and humidity levels will also drop! We forecast how it will feel outside by looking at the dew point temperature. Dew point readings were in the lower 70s today and that is why it felt so humid outside. Dew point temperatures are expected to drop into the 50s tomorrow. Finally a breath of fresh air! Great opportunity to open those windows!

Humidity Forecast

Humidity Forecast

Humidity levels will rise a little bit on Thursday as rain chances return to the forecast. The cold front that will move through the region tonight will stall out to our south Wednesday and Thursday. An area of low pressure will ride along it and bring moisture back into Hampton Roads and North Carolina on Thursday. Our Future Trak computer model has scattered showers moving through the area Thursday afternoon.

Future Trak at 4 PM Thursday

Future Trak at 4 PM Thursday

We will dry out just in time for Memorial Day Weekend! Highs will be in the 70s Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Then we warm back up into the 80s on Monday.

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will have another update coming up on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


More Pop-Up Storms Possible

May 17th, 2015 at 9:22 pm by under Weather

I hope everyone enjoyed the hot and humid weekend across Hampton Roads. Felt more like July out there with highs in the upper 80s! The weather cooperated for the most part. We were dry for most of the day today, but a few showers and storms developed across the Middle Peninsula and the Peninsula earlier this afternoon as expected. Unfortunately, the rain came at a bad time for the LPGA Kingsmill Championship in Williamsburg. There ended up being a 2-hour rain delay.

All of the rain fell apart around sunset. We will stay warm and muggy overnight with temperatures hovering in the 70s. Another hot and humid day expected tomorrow as we start off the new work week. Look for partly to mostly cloudy conditions and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Average high this time of year is 76°! The weather pattern is going to stay unsettled Monday and Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is over us now, but will weaken even more tomorrow as it shifts southward. As the ridge of high pressure weakens, it will allow some upper level energy to move right over Virginia and North Carolina.

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

This will allow showers and storms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day (afternoon/early evening). We are not expecting any severe weather because we are not going to have any wind shear in the atmosphere. Mid and upper levels winds are going to be very weak, which means that the showers and storms will be very slow movers.

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

Future Trak at 3 PM Monday

With plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, heavy rain will be the main threat tomorrow with any shower or storm that develops. Keep in mind that heavy rain could lead to localized street flooding. These pop-up showers and storms will be very hit or miss, so some folks will miss out on the rain. However, I do think coastal areas will have a better chance for seeing rain tomorrow thanks to a sea-breeze developing late in the day. Winds will shift from southwest to southeast. This wind shift line should aid in some thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon. So if you have the day off and want to hit the beach tomorrow, do so during the morning hours. Otherwise, you may have to dodge some rain and storms during the afternoon. Any activity should wind down after sunset.

I think everyone will have a better chance for seeing showers and storms on Tuesday out ahead of our next cold front.

Future Trak at 5 PM Tuesday

Future Trak at 5 PM Tuesday

Once the front moves through Tuesday night, we are in for some relief! Temperatures will drop and humidity levels will plummet! Highs will drop back down into the 70s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Dew point readings will go from the upper 60s Monday and Tuesday to the lower 50s by Wednesday! YAY! Now that is something to look forward to!

Humidity Forecast

Humidity Forecast

Make sure you grab the umbrella before heading out to work in the morning just in case one of those showers or storms develops near you. You can also download the WAVY Weather app, so you can have access to radar on-the-go.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Waiting On The Cold Front

May 12th, 2015 at 6:37 pm by under Weather

We called for isolated severe storms and that is what we got. Although I have to admit, I thought we would have a little bit more action with all of the instability in place, but that was not the case. There were 2 storms that developed to our west and intensified as they moved into Southampton County, Sussex County and Northampton County (NC). Highs reached the 90s as expected and we were 3 degrees shy of breaking the record of 92° set back in 1881 at the Norfolk Airport.

High Temperatures Today

High Temperatures Today

The heat and humidity along with a wind shift line helped produce the storms across our westernmost counties. But these storms weakened as they pushed east, so expect some light rain showers across the Peninsula, Southside and North Carolina. Here is a look at the weakening storm heading northeast of Portsmouth out of Tower Cam 10.

Thunderstorm

Thunderstorm Out of Tower Cam 10

Are we done with the storms yet? I think most of us are, but the computer models are still hinting at some development across North Carolina, and maybe the Southside, between now and 10 PM. The only way areas north of the Peninsula would see any rain would be from an outflow boundary moving northward.

Future Trak at 9 PM Tonight

Future Trak at 9 PM Tonight

The cold front should move through the region closer to midnight, so any rain will come to an end before then. Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front and temperatures will drop into the mid 60s by tomorrow morning. Wednesday afternoon is looking perfect with highs in the mid 70s and low humidity!

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be watching the radar all night and will have updates on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Any additional watches or warnings will be scrolling at the bottom of your screen. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Goodbye Ana, Hello Storms!

May 11th, 2015 at 6:18 pm by under Weather

Rain is finally tapering off across most of the region as the remnants of Ana push away from us. Ana did bring us some heavy rain and gusty winds along the Outer Banks. Here are rain totals over the past 24-hours. Keep in mind, that these totals are taken at specific locations. The heavy downpours were scattered around the region, so the heavy rain may have missed the airports shown below. So if you saw heavy rain, then you probably saw rain totals over 1 inch at your house. Notice that the highest totals were across the Outer Banks!

48-Hour Rain Totals

24-Hour Rain Totals

So we can say goodbye Ana! Next up…showers and storms developing across the western part of Virginia. These storms are moving southeast, so there is a chance they could hold together tonight. If the storms survive the journey to Hampton Roads, we could see another round of rain closer to 10 PM-12 AM. If the storms weaken before getting here, then we will stay dry, warm and muggy with temperatures hovering in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Future Trak at 10 PM Tonight

Future Trak at 10 PM

All of the rain should be gone by tomorrow morning and most of your Tuesday will be rain-free. Near record heat is likely tomorrow as high temperatures rise to around 90° with the help of our strong southwesterly winds. The record high at the Norfolk Airport is 92° set back in 1881. The humidity will be on the high side as we will still have plenty of moisture in place thanks to Ana. A cold front will move into Virginia Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and storms may develop out ahead of this front anytime after 3 PM. Best chance for rain will be across the Southside and North Carolina.

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Any storm that develops could turn strong to severe. The atmosphere should be quite unstable tomorrow afternoon with highs around 90° and lots of moisture in place. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon.

Marginal Risk For Severe Weather

Marginal Risk For Severe Weather

The marginal risk level is the lowest level for potential severe weather. That means there is only a slight chance for isolated severe storms. We are not expecting this to be a widespread event. Just stay tuned to our latest forecast and download the WAVY Weather app so you have access to the latest watches/warnings and radar on-the-go. The line of storms that develops should move fairly quickly across the region, so don’t expect the rain to last for too long tomorrow. Once the front moves through, winds will turn more northerly and usher in some much cooler and drier air. I’m really looking forward to Wednesday! Highs in the mid 70s with low humidity…sounds like perfection to me! :)

Chief Meteorologist Don Slater will be watching the radar tonight. He will have a full update on WAVY News 10 at 10 on FOX43 and WAVY News 10 at 11.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Monday Afternoon Update

May 11th, 2015 at 1:18 pm by under Weather

This is just going to be a quick afternoon update on what to expect throughout the rest of the day. Check out Jeremy Wheeler’s morning blog for a more details. The remnants of Ana are right over top of us. Rain will continue on and off this afternoon. There may be some heavy downpours in some areas, but most folks should just see a steady light to moderate rain. The threat for any storms or tornadoes has gone down even more. We have plenty of tropical moisture in place, but we missing the instability (heat). The rain, thick cloud cover and fog have kept temperatures down into the 70s so far, so I don’t think many spots will be hitting 80 degrees. Highs will likely be in the mid 70s this afternoon.

Expect a few lingering showers around the evening commute, but the rain shouldn’t be as widespread as it is right now (lunchtime).

Future Trak at 3 PM

Future Trak at 3 PM Today

Winds have been running between 10-15mph for inland locations. Along the coast, winds are sustained between 10-20mph with gusts exceeding 30mph at times. Strongest winds have been reported along the Outer Banks in Manteo and Hatteras.

Manteo Past Wind Gusts

Manteo Past Wind Gusts

Wave heights have been running between 4-6 feet, but I don’t think anyone will be in the water today. Maybe a few surfers, but that is about it. There may be some overwash along Highway 12 in the Outer Banks.

I will have a complete updated forecast coming up on WAVY News 10 beginning at 4 PM.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Ana Weakens, Heavy Rain Still Possible

May 10th, 2015 at 8:11 pm by under Weather

Ana made landfall around 6 AM near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and has already weakened to a tropical depression. The 5 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center was the last advisory that will be issued on Ana. Ana will likely weaken even more overnight as the storm moves northeast. The remnants of Ana will impact Hampton Roads tomorrow. The forecast has the strongest winds at 30mph tomorrow over our region, but I think those winds are going to be too high. Coastal areas may see wind gusts up to 25mph, but 30mph may be too high.

Tropical Depression Ana

Tropical Depression Ana

Some of Ana’s outer bands moved across Virginia and North Carolina today. Rain was hit or miss and if you experienced a heavy downpour, it only lasted a few minutes. The shower activity is winding down now as we get closer to sunset, so we should see a break in the action until at least midnight. Then the rain will push back in from the south as the remnants of Ana move toward us. Expect scattered rain showers as you wake up tomorrow morning. Make sure you grab the umbrella before heading off to work!

Future Trak at 8 AM Monday

Future Trak at 8 AM Monday

Rain will continue right into the afternoon as what is left of Ana moves across North Carolina and Virginia.

Future Trak  at 12 PM Monday

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Isolated storms may develop during the afternoon as high temperatures rise to around 80°. We will have plenty of tropical moisture in place, so the main threat tomorrow will be the potential for heavy rain. Heavy downpours will cause ponding on the roads and that could lead to localized street flooding. Rain will taper off Monday evening as we lose the heating of the day and the remnants of Ana push offshore.

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Any heavy rain that falls will add up quickly in the rain gauges. 0.5-1 inch of rain is expected across the region over the next 24 hours. Some isolated areas may see higher totals.

The remnants of Ana will also bring increasing wave heights and dangerous rip currents to the area beaches. Wave heights should range from 2-3+ feet for Virginia Beach and 3-5 feet along the OBX. Winds are not going to be that bad. We could see gusts up to 25mph, but that would only be right along the coast. Gusty winds will also be possible within any storm that develops. Small craft advisories have been issued for the bay and the ocean until Tuesday morning. Use caution boaters! Overall….this storm is going to have minimal impacts across our region. Here is the breakdown.

Monday Impacts

Monday Impacts

A cold front will keep rain chances alive Tuesday afternoon. Near record heat is possible Tuesday with highs around 90°! Then we cool back down and dry out by Wednesday.

Download the WAVY Weather app so you can have access to Super Doppler 10 radar on-the-go! The app is free of charge.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Feeling Like Summer Already!

May 3rd, 2015 at 8:57 pm by under Weather

It was a picture perfect weekend across Hampton Roads! The warm and dry weather arrived just in time for all of the outdoor events that were scheduled for this past weekend. Highs were in the 60s and 70s on Saturday and in the 70s and 80s today. Felt more like summer this afternoon! Before I get into the forecast, I just want to take a look back at the month of April. I plotted the high temperatures for each day in April on the graphic below. Notice how most of the month was dominated by warm weather. The cooler weather didn’t arrive until the end of the month. Despite the recent stretch of cool weather, April ended up being warmer and wetter than average.

April High Temperatures

April High Temperatures

So will the warm weather last? Yes….but there may be a few hiccups along the way! High pressure will remain in control offshore for the next 1-2 days, keeping us very warm and dry.

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

The jet stream will stay to our north keeping the showers and storms away from us for now. Our winds will be blowing out of the southwest with the high anchored offshore. A southwest wind is a warming wind, which means highs will be in the 80s Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge of high pressure will weaken a little bit late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will allow a weak cold front to get closer to us. An isolated shower will be possible across the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and Eastern Shore Tuesday night, but chances are very low. The front will cross Hampton Roads on Wednesday. Scattered showers could develop along the front, so rain chances are back in the forecast Wednesday afternoon. Any rain will come to an end Wednesday night. Thursday will be cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. Average high this time of year is 72°.

The forecast gets interesting again by the end of the week. So much for a quiet week…. All computer models have an area of low pressure developing north of Cuba by the middle of the week. This offshore low will be trapped underneath a ridge of high pressure. This means that there will not be much in the way of steering currents, so this low will be a slow mover and kinda wobble back and forth a lot. Most of the computer models have it as a weak coastal low spinning to our south. It is not expected to become a tropical system, but could take on some subtropical characteristics. With the current forecast track, the system looks like it could throw some moisture our way Friday, Saturday and Sunday. I kept rain out of the forecast for now since we are still 5-7 days away, but depending on the track, we may need to add rain chances to the forecast by the end of the week into the weekend. Our winds will become more northeasterly and easterly as the low spins offshore. We will have to watch for the potential for tidal flooding and rough surf from Thursday-Sunday.

The computer models are going to change a lot this week. Hopefully, they will come into better agreement with the strength and the track of the low. We will be keeping an eye on it for you. Until then….enjoy the summer-like weather for the next few days.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Goodbye Sunshine, Hello Coastal Storm

April 29th, 2015 at 5:40 pm by under Weather

The sun is out and all is quiet for now….so enjoy the last few hours of nice weather, because we are tracking some big changes. These changes come in the form of a developing coastal storm slated to impact us Thursday into Friday. The low still hasn’t developed yet, but should get its act together tonight off the coast of Georgia and Florida. This low will move northeastward from there, staying well offshore, but getting close enough to bring us some rain, wind and tidal flooding over the next 48 hours. There has been an shift in the computer model’s solution this afternoon…a good change for us. Over the past few days, the GFS and EURO models have consistently kept the low offshore, but close enough to bring us some rain and wind. The NAM’s solution has kept the low closer to the coast (farther inland), which would give us more rain and stronger winds. Now the NAM’s solution has the low located more offshore, closer to the solution of the EURO and GFS. This gives us higher confidence that this is going to be a weaker storm for us. We could still see rain, wind and tidal flooding, but this is not going to be a huge storm for us.

Now onto the forecast…the high clouds have already moved into the region and the clouds will continue to thicken up overnight. A few showers will be possible across North Carolina overnight, but most will stay dry with lows in the mid 50s. Scattered showers will move in Thursday afternoon, but the rain will be hit or miss. It is not going to rain all day long, just keep the umbrella with you.

Future Trak at 12 PM Thursday

Future Trak at 12 PM Thursday

When you are not seeing rain tomorrow, expect to see a lot of clouds and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Northeast winds will only be running between 5-15mph tomorrow. Expect winds to really increase late Thursday night into Friday as the low strengthens offshore. Northeast winds should range between 15-25mph inland and 20-30mph along the coast with higher gusts possible during the day on Friday. This is what our Future Trak Wind Speed model has at 12 PM Friday.

Forecast Wind Speeds Friday at 12 PM

Forecast Wind Speeds Friday at 12 PM

As the low continues to move away from us on Friday, we are going to be watching an upper level low pushing into the region from the west. I think this is when we will have the best chance for rain over the next 2 days….Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Rain could be heavy at times, but I don’t think it will amount to much in the rain gauge. Forecast rain totals should range between 0.5-1 inch of rain. Notice how the rain becomes more widespread at 7 AM Friday.

Future Trak at 7 AM Friday

Future Trak at 7 AM Friday

Rain will continue into Friday afternoon and highs will be kept down into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Rain will come to an end by Friday night, but we may see some lingering moisture in the form of cloud cover on Saturday.

*Keep in mind that some of the computer models have this upper level low diving to our south on Friday. If this solution pans out, then North Carolina would see rain and most of Virginia would stay dry on Friday. So a lot can still change at this point.*

With the strong northeasterly winds and an almost full moon, tidal flooding will become a possibility. Nuisance to minor tidal flooding will be possible Friday night during high tide, which is around 8:30 PM. Winds will subside on Saturday, so the water levels should drop below the threshold for tidal flooding at that time.

Forecast Water Levels

Forecast Water Levels

The weekend is looking fantastic! Lots of sunshine both days with highs around 70° on Saturday and mid 70s on Sunday.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Chilly Start To The Week!

April 26th, 2015 at 10:45 pm by under Weather

The rain is gone! The clouds have cleared out…at least for the most part. That means we are in for a chilly night tonight! Lows will drop into the mid 40s on average with some upper 30s possible inland. Patchy fog may develop overnight. Make sure you grab the jacket or give the kids the jacket in the morning.

Monday AM Forecast Lows

Monday AM Forecast Lows

Monday will be a little bit warmer than today, but we are still going to stay unseasonably cool most of the week. Highs on Monday will reach the mid 60s, which is still pleasant, but cooler than the average high of 71°. The reason for the cooler weather is because of a large dip in the jet stream over New England and the Mid-Atlantic. A surface low off the coast of Canada and an upper level low spinning overhead will keep winds out of the north over the next few days. This will reinforce the cooler air mass in place.

Weather Pattern

Weather Pattern

With a mid level disturbance pivoting through the region, we can’t rule out the chance for an isolated shower developing Monday afternoon, although chances are very low. Notice how our Future Trak model doesn’t have much rain on the map, so I don’t think you will need the umbrella tomorrow.

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Technically we will be unseasonably cool all week long, but highs in the 60s are still not that bad. :)

Forecast Highs This Week

Forecast Highs This Week

Have a great week everyone!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

Highs will remain


Perfect Movie Night!

April 25th, 2015 at 8:25 pm by under Weather

It has been a wet, dreary and chilly Saturday across Hampton Roads. High temperatures only maxed out in the low to mid 50s! Average high this time of year is 70°! Unfortunately there were lots of outdoor events going on today. The Tour de Cure and the Suffolk Wine Fest were some of the more popular ones. The Toyota Owners 400 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in Richmond was postponed due to the rain. The race is scheduled to start at 1 PM Sunday. The rain should be done by that time in Richmond, so the weather shouldn’t be a problem for the race tomorrow.

It is going to be a rainy and chilly night across the region as the rain continues and temperatures hover in the 40s. If you get wet, it will feel even colder than that! Sounds like a perfect movie night to me! :) The rain should taper off shortly after midnight, so we should see a break in the activity overnight. But that doesn’t mean we are done with the rain yet!

Future Trak at Midnight

Future Trak at Midnight

A stationary front is draped across North Carolina. We are watching an area of low pressure that is producing rain across Kentucky, Indiana and Illinois. That rain is headed in our direction as the low is forecast to ride along the front to our south.

Second Round of Rain Arrives Sunday Morning

Second Round of Rain Arrives Sunday Morning

So don’t be fooled if you wake up around 5-6 AM and it is just cloudy outside. Rain will push in from west to east anytime after 6 AM. Make sure you have those jackets and the umbrellas before heading out to those church services. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s tomorrow morning.

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

Future Trak at 8 AM Sunday

The area of low pressure will move away from us tomorrow afternoon, so rain will be ending from west to east. Most locations will be drying out by Noon, but some coastal areas could see a few showers linger past 12 PM. The clouds will stick around tomorrow afternoon with highs only in the mid to upper 50s. Even though it has been raining most of the day, we haven’t seen too much rain accumulate in the rain gauges. Most areas have picked up between 0.25″-0.5″ of rain with some isolated higher totals. I think we could see another 0.25″-0.5″ before the rain ends tomorrow afternoon.

Rain Totals So Far

Rain Totals So Far

If you have any outdoor plans scheduled for tomorrow, I would try to push them off until tomorrow afternoon since it will be raining in the morning. Much drier weather is in the forecast next week! Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona