This is just a quick update on the Moore, Oklahoma tornado. The National Weather Service has been surveying the damage across Oklahoma today. Here is their latest analysis.

Moore, OK Tornado (NWS graphic)

Notice that the damage survey is still ongoing, so additional information will be coming in over the next few days, as they have a lot of distance to cover. A report put out by the National Weather Service says that the tornado initially produced EF-0 & EF-1 damage. The tornado intensified so quickly that it produced EF-4 damage about 10 minutes later.

Reminder: The National Weather Service in Wakefield will be holding a Basic SKYWARN class tomorrow (Wednesday) at 6PM at the Norfolk EOC. This class is free and if you attend, you will become a trained severe weather spotter. I highly recommend attending if you are interested in meteorology or just like to learn about thunderstorms. Click here for more information on how to register.

Meteorologist: Tiffany Savona

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It has been a very busy weekend across Hampton Roads with all of the outdoor events that took place across the region. It has also been a busy weather weekend across the Central Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms developed across the middle of the country yesterday, dropping tornadoes in Nebraska and Kansas. Another round of strong to severe storms developed this afternoon across the same areas, producing additional tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma.

Severe Weather in the Central Plains

I captured this satellite/radar image around 8 PM, where tornado warnings were still in effect across parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa. Check out the 24-hour storm reports.

24-Hour Storm Reports

There is a legend at the top of the graphic. The red dots indicate all of the tornado reports over the past 24 hours. Major tornado damage was reported east of Oklahoma City. Homes were demolished and people were ejected from their cars. Fatalities and numerous injuries have been reported. Debris was thrown miles ahead of the storm due to the very strong upper levels winds in the atmosphere. Luckily for us, this strong storm system will weaken significantly as it brings a cold front our way by the end of the week.

Scattered showers will continue to push through Hampton Roads tonight, but the activity should quiet down after midnight.

9:10 PM Satellite/Radar

A stray shower will be possible Monday morning with much better chances for showers and storms during the afternoon hours. These showers and storms will be hit or miss, so some folks will see the rain while others will not. These showers/storms tend to fire up during the peak heating hours late in the day. We will have plenty of moisture in place. Dew points are in the mid/upper 60s! Dew points are an indication of how much moisture is in the air. When these numbers are in the mid/upper 60s, like they are now, it will feel extremely humid outside.

Dew points

It is hard to pinpoint exactly where the rain will develop because we will not have any surface features or boundaries that will spark off the showers and storms in one particular area. With cold air aloft, warm air at the surface and lots of moisture in place, showers and storms could pop up anywhere in Hampton Roads. Here are your Monday rain chances:

Monday Rain Chances

Don’t expect Monday to be a wash-out. Rain will be very scattered during the afternoon and evening hours. Best advice is to keep your umbrella on stand-by the next couple of days.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

Get ready for a BIG warm-up! It will certainly feel like summer across Hampton Roads this afternoon. Folks across the Midwest have seen record heat over the past few days. This warmer air from the west will begin to build in today and with the help of our southwesterly winds, highs will climb into the mid 80s this afternoon. That is about a 20° temperature jump in 24 hours. Record highs are in the low/mid 90s for Hampton Roads, so those records should be safe.

We have received a few phone calls regarding the possible 17-year cicada invasion across Hampton Roads. I did some research and this is what I have found. Brood II is the specific group of cicadas that are expected to emerge now through the next few weeks. These bugs have been underground for the past 17 years feeding on plant roots to stay alive. Brood II is supposedly very large (millions of cicadas). The cicadas will only come out of the ground when the soil temperatures are in the mid 60s, right around 64 degrees. Here are the current soil temperatures according to the 06Z NAM across the region. It shows that our soil temperatures are in the mid 50s, low 60s. That is a little bit too cool for cicadas.

NAM Soil Temperatures (10-40cm)

Cicadas come out of the ground to breed. The loud buzzing sound you hear is the sound of the males trying to attract the females. Once the cicadas mate, they die off.  They are only around for about 4-6 weeks but that is long enough to become annoyed with their loud buzzing. You don’t have to be scared of these bugs since they do not sting or bite.

We haven’t had many reports of cicadas here in Hampton Roads and there is still some question whether we will see any at all. You can view the cicada reports across the region by looking at this cicada map.

This map below shows where and when the different broods will emerge from the ground.

Cicada Brood Map

Credit: http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2013/05/2013-cicada-swarm-guide/65101/
By looking at this map, Brood II will emerge across Central Virginia, to our west. This means we may not see too many cicadas, which is a good thing for us and for young trees, especially fruit trees, that become damaged when female cicadas deposit their eggs in small branches.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

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 Surf Update:

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson here; if you are looking to do some surfing in the warmer water and hoping for a nice swell at the same time…the wait continues. The good news is that we are just at the 60 degree barrier for the water temperatures at the oceanfront. (Croatan Beach through the  North End)

Coming up this weekend a weak storm system will bring in some rain. The best chances for it will be on Sunday and Monday as the low will be moving right over us. Once it moves offshore we should see a wind switch.

Offshore Storm Bringing A Windswell (Tuesday 8am)

Wind Speeds on Tuesday Morning

Southwest winds at 10-15mph should help to clean up the 2-4ft possible swell we could see next week. Otherwise, the surf still looks flat/minimal for our area for a solid 7-10 days. The good news is that the water will still get warmer with our daytime highs in the 70-80s. I’ll keep watch on the surf continually until late fall/early winter. So tune in at 7:30am on Saturday and Sunday morning to our newscast for a look at the beach forecast in case you are going out. I usually show a surf camera from www.surfline.com at that time on the newscast.

Go Catch Some Surf!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there! I hope you all enjoyed the cooler weather today. We saw a few showers early this morning, and then saw partly to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon. The cold front that moved through before sunrise cooled us down today and dropped the humidity, so it felt great outside! Highs were around 70 degrees closer to the water with some mid 70s inland.

Highs on Sunday

Get ready for an even bigger cool down Monday and Tuesday. Northerly winds will bring in cooler air from the north and highs will only reach the low to mid 60s both Monday and Tuesday. Average high temperature is 74 degrees this time of year. It will feel more like the end of March/beginning of April as we start off the work week. So you may need to bring that light jacket with you the next few days.

Our computer model is showing a trough or wind shift line moving through Hampton Roads tomorrow evening. This boundary will switch our winds from the northeast back to the north to bring us another reinforcing shot of cool air, at least for May standards. As this boundary moves through, it may spark off a stray shower late tomorrow afternoon/tomorrow evening.

Future Trak at 5 PM

There will be some moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, but the lower levels will be very dry. So I am thinking that any rain that falls will evaporate before it reaches the ground. This model may not be picking up on the drier lower levels of the atmosphere. But, we will still keep about a 20% chance for an isolated shower in the forecast on Monday. The clouds will clear out Monday night and wind speeds will be fairly light, which means temperatures will be dropping very quickly. There is a chance we could be looking at record low temperatures Tuesday morning. We are forecasting low temperatures to drop into lower 40s by Tuesday morning. The record low temperature at Norfolk International Airport  is 43° set back in 2007.

Then get ready for a warm-up! Check out this temperature forecast over the next few days.

Temperature Trend

Have a great Monday!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

If you thought last week was rainy, just wait until you see all the rain chances in the forecast this week.  Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson wrote a blog this morning talking about how much rain we could see over the next few days. I am expanding on his blog and answering the question “WHY?”

The graphic below shows the current weather pattern across the U.S.

Current Weather Pattern

There are different types of atmospheric blocking patterns that can develop. The one above is called the Omega Block because it resembles the Greek letter Omega. This blocking pattern can can cause the weather to “repeat” several days in a row. High pressure is dominating the middle of the country while an area of low pressure is bringing unsettled weather to the West Coast and to the Southeast.

Satellite/Radar

High pressure will typically bring in warm and dry weather, while low pressure will bring in cool and wet weather.

The area of low pressure sitting over Alabama was over the Midwest last week. This was the same storm system that brought the snow and the record cold to the Mid-West and the Southern Plains. The air has modified since then, so we are just going to see rain and cooler weather for much of the upcoming work week. This Omega Block will break down on Tuesday, but the low pressure across the Southeast will become cut-off from the jetstream and lose its steering winds. This will cause it to slow down and sit over the same area for days. This low will sit over Hampton Roads the next few days and bring us the chance for showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms Monday through Thursday. Here are the latest rain chances.

Rain Chances

The storm system will finally move offshore on Thursday. Models usually kick out these upper levels low too quickly. Right now, it looks like Friday will be dry. But if this system slows down any more, then we could be adding some rain chances in on Friday. Either way, our long-range models have another storm system moving in sometime this weekend. So get ready for a wet week ahead!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

It was a beautiful weekend across Hampton Roads with highs in the mid/upper 60s both Saturday and Sunday. But we are tracking big changes in store for your Monday. The satellite/radar image that I captured at 8:30PM shows a very large storm system to our west.

Satellite/Radar

The area of low pressure on the map is actually an upper level low, which will provide the energy for this storm system as it moves eastward. This upper low is going to be a very slow mover, not clearing Virginia until late Monday, early Tuesday morning. This is one of the reasons why we have rain chances in the forecast for the next few days. By just looking at the map, it seems like the rain has already moved into the region. However, a lot of the rain that is falling is evaporating before it hits the ground due to the drier lower levels of the atmosphere. Once the atmosphere moistens up, which should be closer to midnight, rain will begin to fall and reach the ground. Rain will become even more widespread overnight and into Monday morning. Check what our FutureTrak model is thinking for tomorrow’s morning commute.

Future Trak at 7AM

You may want to leave yourself a little bit of extra travel time to get where you need to go on Monday. The rain should continue all day long and could be heavy at times. The rain and cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the mid/upper 60s. This storm system is going to be a big rain maker across Hampton Roads. Our latest computer model is saying that most areas could see 1-1.5″ of rain from now through Tuesday night.

Rain Totals Through Tuesday Night

The yellow and red colors indicate higher rain totals. A heavy rain band will likely set up somewhere in Hampton Roads. Wherever that rain band sets up, we could see isolated totals anywhere from 2-3 inches. I think 3 inches is on the high side, but not out of the question. Luckily, we do need the rain across Hampton Roads. The Norfolk International Airport is about 1.33″ below normal for the month of April. So this rain event should put us back on track.

One benefit of the heavy rain will be the decrease in pollen levels for at least the first half of the week. The rain should wash away a lot of pollens in the air. Pollen levels are forecast to be between 4-5 (Low-Moderate) on Monday, so allergy sufferers may see a little relief.

Make sure you bring the rain gear with you on Monday!

- Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

The annual Lyrid Meteor Shower peaks tonight/early Monday morning when Earth passes through the debris of Comet Thatcher.

Lyrid Meteor Shower

On average, this meteor shower produces about 10-20 meteors per hour.  The best time to view the meteor shower is right before dawn, after the moon sets, and right before the sun rises (4:00-4:30 AM). (Credit: space.com) If you are outside when the moon is still out, it may too bright for you to see the meteors.  Get away from city lights and allow your eyes to adjust to the darkness. Unfortunately, the clouds will be increasing from south to north after midnight tonight. I think the clouds may be too thick and could block the view across the Southside and North Carolina. However, viewing conditions will improve the farther north you go. Areas from the Peninsula northward will see less cloud cover overnight. If you go outside to check out the meteor shower, let us know if you see any! Good luck!

Now more on the weather…the cool and breezy conditions will stick around on Monday. An area of low pressure will end up off the coast of North Carolina tomorrow afternoon. A few on and off showers will be possible tomorrow, especially for areas closer to the coast.

Monday Rain Chances

Any rain that falls will be very light. Rainfall totals will likely be about 0.1″ or less. This low will produce a strong onshore flow for all of Hampton Roads. Our Future Trak model has wind speeds between 15-20mph tomorrow afternoon.

We could see gusts up to 30mph at times with 35mph gusts along the coast. High temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 50s Monday afternoon and that strong breeze off the water will make it feel even cooler. Grab the light jacket and the umbrella before heading off to work Monday morning.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for all of the counties highlighted in yellow until 3 AM. However, it looks like the severe threat is diminishing.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

I captured this satellite/radar at 8:30 PM. So far, most of the region has been quiet this evening. That will soon change over the next hour or so. We are tracking a line of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front that will continue to march east and move into Hampton Roads between now-11PM. There were tornado warnings issued for areas to the west, including some of our far westernmost counties. The only tornado report came from Mecklenburg County where several structures were damaged.

Satellite/Radar

The main threat with this line of storms will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph. Small hail and heavy rain will be possible with the stronger storms as well. The tornado threat is low and will continue to go down as we lose the heating of the day. This line is moving to the east around 45mph. The rain/storms will move into the Peninsula between 9:15-9:30 PM, the Southside between 9:30-10PM, N.E. North Carolina between 9:30-10:30PM. Rain has already moved into the Middle Peninsula and the Northern Neck. Rain and storms should push into the Eastern Shore between 9:30-10PM.

Here are some tips on what you should do if a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area.

Severe Storm Tips

Don and I will continue to provide updates on WAVY TV 10, wavy.com and on social media (Facebook & Twitter). We will be cutting into programming if necessary.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

Last night, we had some reports coming in of a meteor sighting across Hampton Roads. People were reporting that the meteor was many different colors as it flew across the sky. At first, I though we may have seen the Northern Lights since a solar storm hit Earth Saturday night. However, the Northern Lights can last from minutes to hours. Folks said they couldn’t snap pictures since the meteor sighting was only a few seconds. I am thinking this meteor was part of the Lyrid Meteor Shower which peaks on April 22, about a week from today. The Lyrid Meteor Shower will be visible across the entire Northern Hemisphere beginning on April 16. These meteors come from dust particles in the tail of the Comet Thatcher.

I hope everyone enjoyed the weather over the weekend because changes are on the way! Clouds will be on the increase tonight and the atmosphere will begin to moisten up out ahead of our next system.

Satellite/Radar Captured at 9 PM

Our next rain maker is located to our south. This piece of energy will swing across Hampton Roads tomorrow and should provide enough lift and moisture to produce scattered showers across the region. The rain that falls will be very light. Rainfall totals will likely stay below 0.1″. Here is our FutureTrak at 7AM Monday morning.

FutureTrak @ 7AM Monday

Notice the light rain is widely scattered. Here is FutureTrak at Noon on Monday.

FutureTrak @ Noon on Monday

It will not rain all day. Just expect light showers on and off throughout the day with the rain ending during the late afternoon hours. Rain chances will be the highest across North Carolina.

Monday Rain Chances

Monday will be a cloudy and dreary day with highs in the upper 60s. Some inland areas may see the lower 70s. Pollen levels will come down a little bit tomorrow thanks to the rain, but will still remain in the moderate to high category. Hopefully we will see enough rain to wash the pollen off of the cars. Pollen levels will rise again starting on Tuesday. Temperatures will be rising throughout the week as well. We should be back in the 80s by the end of the week. Grab the umbrella for tomorrow!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

Just like the title suggests, it FINALLY feels like spring across Hampton Roads. It was a great weekend to spend some time outside, especially today when highs reached the upper 60s, lower 70s.

Sunday High Temperatures

If you like the warm weather, you are in luck. Temperatures will continue to rise through the middle of the week. High temperatures will be well above average, but below record levels. This graphic shows the forecast high temperatures in orange from Monday-Thursday. Record high temperatures for each day are in red and plotted above the forecast temperature. Keep in mind the average high temperature this time of year is 66 degrees.

Record VS. Forecast

Many locations could hit 80° at least one day this week. Based on climate data, the first occurrence of an 80° day in Norfolk occurs on March 28th. Our current forecast has Norfolk reaching 80° this Wednesday, April 10th. If this verifies, 2013 will have the latest, first occurrence of an 80° day since 1992 (National Weather Service). Last year we saw our first 80° day on February 24th. So we are a little behind schedule this year.

The weather will stay warm and dry through Thursday. Our next storm system will move into Hampton Roads sometime on Friday bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. It looks like temperatures will drop next weekend as a cold front moves into the region. Enjoy the nice weather this week!

Meteorologist: Tiffany Savona