Tiffany Savona WAVY

Rainy Monday Ahead!

December 21st, 2014 at 9:15 pm by under Weather

Messy travel weather ahead as most folks hit the roads for the Christmas holiday. I am tracking two storm systems that will impact Hampton Roads before Christmas Day. The first is a weak coastal storm that will bring rain to the region on Monday and the second, but stronger system, will bring rain and possibly a few thunderstorms on Wednesday. Lets talk about Monday first! Clouds will be on the increase after midnight as an area of low pressure offshore moves closer to us. As of right now, temperatures have dropped to the freezing mark in many locations due to mostly clear conditions and light winds. I think temperatures will rise after midnight as warmer air pushes in aloft and clouds thicken up across the region.

Temperatures Rising Tonight

Temperatures Rising Tonight

Keep in mind that if temperatures don’t rise above freezing across our inland cities (Ahoskie, Franklin, Suffolk, Wakefield) before the rain moves in, then we could see freezing rain develop. I think there is a low chance of this happening, but these inland spots typically get much colder overnight compared to other spots. We will monitor the temperatures closely.

Showers will develop anytime after 3 AM. Future Trak has showers moving through North Carolina and into Virginia by 7 AM. Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 30s to around 40° at that time.

Future Trak at 5 AM Monday

Future Trak at 7 AM Monday

Rain is likely most of the day tomorrow, so don’t expect too many breaks in the rain. Rain becomes even more widespread by 12 PM.

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Future Trak at 12 PM Monday

Showers will continue through the afternoon and taper off Monday night. Rain totals should range between 0.5″ – 0.75″ during the day tomorrow.

We will be in between storm systems on Tuesday, but we will probably see fog and drizzle in the morning. Tuesday afternoon will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 50s. A big warm-up is in store for Wednesday (Christmas Eve) as we track our second system across Hampton Roads. A warm front will move in during the morning and help boost temperatures into the upper 60s to around 70°. Rain will develop during the morning and last all day long and the rain could be heavy at times. If you are traveling across the region or anywhere along the East Coast, you are going to run into the rain and the wind. Luckily this is going to be a rain event and not a snow event for the East Coast, otherwise we would have even more travel delays.

Wednesday Storm Impacts

Wednesday Storm Impacts

With temperatures in the 60s and 70s and dew point readings in the 60s, we could see a few thunderstorms develop out ahead of a cold front Wednesday night. Right now, it looks like the rain will come to an end before 7 AM Christmas Day, but the timing may change a little bit over the next few days. Overall, we will see improving conditions Thursday afternoon with highs in the low to mid 50s. Stay tuned!

Winter began at 6:03 this evening. Starting tomorrow, the length of daylight will slowly increase.

Winter Solstice

Winter Solstice

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 


Rain Moving Out, Now A Gradual Cool Down

December 16th, 2014 at 8:20 pm by under Weather

The rain moved in this afternoon and arrived right on schedule. The rain was most widespread around 3 PM.

Satellite/Radar at 3 PM

Satellite/Radar at 3 PM

There were even a few storms to our south that held together and moved into northeastern North Carolina and the Southside between 4-5 PM. A Delta airplane got hit by lightning when traveling from Atlanta to Newport News this afternoon. Here is the story. The lightning also damaged a tree in Chesapeake.  Kasey Skidmore posted this picture of a tree in the Greenbrier area of Chesapeake on Facebook.

Tree Hit By Lightning

Tree Hit By Lightning

Most of the rain has pushed offshore, although we could still see a few lingering showers before midnight because the cold front is still to our west. Most rain totals were around 0.25″ as expected and we need the rain! We have only seen a little over 0.5″ for the month of December, which is about an inch below average.

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

Once the cold front moves through tonight, the clouds will clear out and winds will turn more westerly. We are not going to cool down much tomorrow with a westerly wind in place. A westerly wind is more of a warming wind for us in Hampton Roads. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday with lots of sunshine.

Wednesday Temperature Forecast

Wednesday Temperature Forecast

That is a little bit cooler than the 60s we saw today, but still mild for this time of year. Average high temperature this time of year is 52°. So enjoy tomorrow because it gets colder Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s Thursday and Friday. More rain is possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Finally A Pattern Change!

December 14th, 2014 at 9:46 pm by under Weather

That stubborn upper low over New England has FINALLY moved out to sea! That means we are looking at a pattern change this week. More on that in a minute.

Some folks have been asking if you can still see the Geminid Meteor Shower tonight. The short answer is Yes! The shower peaked last night, but meteors will still be visible until Wednesday. The sky is clear over Hampton Roads tonight. More clouds will move in starting tomorrow, so tonight will probably be the last night to watch the show in Hampton Roads. Here are some tips.

Geminid Meteor Shower Viewing Tips

Geminid Meteor Shower Viewing Tips

Now more on the pattern change ahead.

Building Ridge Over East Coast

Building Ridge Over East Coast

High pressure will build into the region tonight allowing winds to drop to 5 mph or less. With a clear sky, temperatures will drop into the lower 30s by Monday morning. Areas that get below freezing could see areas of patchy frost overnight. That area of high pressure will be overhead tomorrow, so we will stay dry. We should see a few more clouds with highs in the lower 50s, which is around the average high of 52° this time of year.

The storm system that is moving across the Southern Plains tonight spawned a tornado in Oklahoma and one in Kansas earlier this evening. There were lots of hail reports as well. This storm system will move east, but it will weaken a bit before it makes it to Virginia and North Carolina on Tuesday.

Tuesday will be warmer as that cold front moves closer to Hampton Roads. Highs on Tuesday will reach the mid to upper 50s. Showers should develop out ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon after 12 PM.

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Rain will be light and won’t amount to much. Rain totals should be less than a quarter of an inch. Rain will come to an end once the cold front moves through Tuesday night. We are not going to see a big cool down as soon as the front moves through the region. Winds will turn more westerly and usher in drier air on Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid 50s Wednesday afternoon. The cooler air will move in by Thursday and Friday as highs drop into the mid to upper 40s. A much stronger storm system will impact Hampton Roads this weekend. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


Geminid Meteor Shower Peaks Tonight!

December 13th, 2014 at 8:35 pm by under Weather

The Geminid Meteor Shower peaks tonight and is expected to be one of the best meteor showers of the year!

Meteor Shower

Meteor Shower Facts

This meteor shower could potentially produce 100-120 meteors per hour. Keep in mind that the moonlight will prevent you from seeing all of the meteors and you may not see many meteors at all if you live in a city. The best time to go outside will be after midnight tonight and before dawn Sunday morning. The meteor shower is expected to really get going around 2 AM. Get away from city lights and allow your eyes to adjust to the dark. The more time you spend outside, the better your chances are that you will spot a meteor. Luckily for us in Hampton Roads, the weather will cooperate. There may be a few high thin clouds tonight, but the sky will still be mostly clear. It will also be COLD with temperatures hovering in the 30s. At least the winds will be light. So bundle up if you plan on watching the show outside!

If you don’t want to wait outside in the cold, you can check out this link, which is a live stream of a telescope set up at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

Good luck! Happy Viewing!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona


More Rain/Wind/Tidal Flooding Today

December 9th, 2014 at 9:17 am by under Weather

Another round of rain, wind and tidal flooding looks likely during the day today all thanks to a coastal storm spinning offshore. This storm was still developing yesterday and now it is an area of low pressure off the Virginia and North Carolina coast. This low will move north of us today and strengthen into a Nor’easter, bringing heavy rain to coastal areas of New England and heavy snow to inland locations.

Coastal Storm

Coastal Storm Moving North

We started off with scattered showers/drizzle/mist this morning. The computer models are leaning toward a wetter solution for the afternoon. Yesterday, the models had us drying out by the afternoon. Now it looks like the rain/drizzle/mist will continue for the rest of the day thanks to an upper level disturbance moving in behind the low. The rain won’t add up to much, maybe one tenth of an inch, but it will feel like a lot if it continues all day long. Here is what our Future Trak model has at 2 PM.

Future Trak at 2 PM

Future Trak at 2 PM

Scattered showers will continue through the afternoon and more rain is possible this evening.

Future Trak at 9 PM

Future Trak at 9 PM

Rain should taper off late tonight/early Wednesday. Winds will stay up today, but will not be as strong as yesterday. Expect northwesterly winds to range between 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph along the coast. With the wind staying up, we could see minor to moderate tidal flooding during the next high tide between 9-11 AM. If you saw any tidal flooding yesterday morning, there is a good chance you will see similar conditions this morning. The water could even rise a little bit higher than yesterday morning. Move your car to higher ground if you live in a flood-prone area. Here are the forecasts for different tidal gauges across the region. Minor tidal flooding will be possible for Sewells Point this morning.

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Sewells Point Tide Forecast

Nuisance to minor tidal flooding will be possible for Yorktown and areas affected by the York River.

Yorktown Tide Forecast

Yorktown Tide Forecast

Minor to moderate flooding will be possible for Kiptopeke along the Eastern Shore and Duck Pier along the Outer Banks.

Kiptopeke Forecast Tides

Kiptopeke Tide Forecast

Duck Pier, NC Forecast Tides

Duck Pier, NC Tide Forecast

Ocean overwash will be possible along Highway 12 again this morning. Water levels will not be as high tonight during high tide, since the low will be north of us and winds will be blowing out of the northwest. But with northwest winds, we could see some sound-side flooding along the Outer Banks.

It will stay chilly today with highs in the low to mid 40s, but when you factor in the wind, it will feel even colder! We will see a lot of clouds on Wednesday, but it will be a drier day overall. Slight chance for an isolated shower north with highs in the upper 40s. Then we dry out for the rest of the week and the weekend is looking great!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Winds Stay Up, Tidal Flooding Likely

December 7th, 2014 at 9:08 pm by under Weather

Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler wrote a great blog this morning talking about a developing coastal storm and its impacts on Hampton Roads and North Carolina. I’m just going to give an update on the winds and the tides. Northeast winds will stay up and should range between 15-25mph overnight and into tomorrow. Sustained winds could be a little higher near the shore and gusts could reach 35-40mph. Winds will not be as strong for inland locations.

Wind Forecast

Wind Forecast – 7 AM Monday

With the persistent northeasterly winds and a full moon last night, the tides will be running higher than normal over the next few days. I made this map to show where the tidal gauges are located across the region. Forecasts are produced for these gauges. So if we give a forecast for Sewells Point, then all areas in red will be affected. The forecast for Yorktown will impact all areas in yellow and the forecast for Kiptopeke includes all areas in green facing the Chesapeake Bay along the Eastern Shore. Duck Pier is not shown on this map, but that forecast will impact people along the Outer Banks.

Tidal Gauge Locations

Tidal Gauge Locations

Here is the forecast for Sewells Point.

Sewells Point Water Levels

Sewells Point Water Levels

Here is the forecast for Yorktown.

Yorktown Water Levels

Yorktown Water Levels

Here is the forecast for Kiptopeke.

Kiptopeke Water Levels

Kiptopeke Water Levels

Here is the forecast for Duck Pier. Keep in mind that there will likely be ocean overwash along Highway 12 during times of high tide.

Duck Pier Water Levels

Duck Pier Water Levels

The highest tide will occur Monday morning, so make sure you are prepared if you live in a flood-prone area. Move your car to higher ground! Winds will shift more out of the northwest on Tuesday, so the threat for tidal flooding will continue for Sewells Point and Kiptopeke. There will probably be sound-side flooding along the Outer Banks on Tuesday. We do not have a forecast for the sound-side of the Outer Banks because there is no tidal gauge there. There is only a gauge in Duck, which is on the ocean side.

Most of Monday will be cloudy and windy, but rain chances go up late in the day as the area of low pressure gets closer to us. Showers will be possible anytime after 3 PM. Best chances will be across coastal areas at first and then everyone should see rain move in Monday night.

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Future Trak at 5 PM Monday

Rain will become more widespread Monday night.

Future Trak at 9 PM Monday

Future Trak at 9 PM Monday

Rain should taper off from south to north Tuesday morning.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Rainy Saturday, Cold & Windy Sunday

December 6th, 2014 at 9:39 am by under Weather

We will see a little bit of everything this weekend when it comes to the weather. Today will be rainy and warm and Sunday will be drier, colder and windy! Let’s talk about today’s forecast first. A cold front is located to our west and showers are developing out ahead of it. A few showers are possible this morning with better chances for rain during the afternoon and evening hours. The overall trend of the computer models show the rain moving in earlier, around 12 PM this afternoon. Our Future Trak computer model has rain becoming more widespread by 1 PM.

Future Trak at 1 PM

Future Trak at 1 PM

Rain will continue the rest of the day, but there may be some breaks in rain here and there. You won’t need the heavy jacket today since high temperatures are expected to rise into the lower 60s. Rain is likely this evening too. Future Trak shows the front moving into Hampton Roads after 7 PM.

Future Trak at 7 PM

Future Trak at 7 PM

Once the front moves through, the rain should become a little bit more scattered. Showers will taper off early Sunday morning. Rainfall totals should range between 0.5″-1″ on average. Winds will turn more northerly and really increase in speed after midnight. Secure any loose holiday decorations outside or bring them inside before heading to bed tonight. Here is the wind speed forecast at 3 AM Sunday morning.

Wind Forecast - 3 AM Sunday

Wind Forecast – 3 AM Sunday

Sustained winds will be running between 20-30mph gusting up to 35-40mph at times. The wind will stay up and range between 15-25mph all day tomorrow too. And it will be much colder on Sunday. Highs will only be in the upper 40s and the wind will make it feel even colder than that!

Meanwhile, the Philippines are bracing for a monster typhoon that will make landfall across the islands today. This storm is going to impact the same areas that were hit by Haiyan last November. Typhoon Hagupit has sustained winds of 125 mph as of right now, so the storm has weakened since Thursday when maximum sustained winds were up to 180mph.

Typhoon Hagupit

Typhoon Hagupit

Damaging winds and storm surge will pose a big threat to all coastal communities. Rainfall totals could range form 10-15 inches on average, with some higher totals possible. This will lead to flooding and mudslides.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Sunday Travel Weather

November 29th, 2014 at 8:46 pm by under Weather

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Some of you may be traveling home tomorrow after a long holiday weekend. The weather is looking good if you plan to travel across Virginia or North Carolina. Expect lots of sunshine with highs in the 60s. Don’t forget the sunglasses!

Regional Travel Map

Regional Travel Map

If you are flying tomorrow, you shouldn’t run into too many problems. The East Coast is looking dry. Light rain is possible across the Ohio River Valley. Accumulating snow is possible across Montana and Wyoming, so you may have some delays there. Rain is likely for northern California, which is a good thing. Any rain that falls in California will help with the exceptional drought still going on across much of the state.

National Travel Map - Sunday

National Travel Map – Sunday

Our local weather across Hampton Roads and North Carolina is looking great for the last day of November. High pressure is located offshore, so winds will shift more out of the southwest tonight, keeping temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Some inland spots may see temperatures drop into the mid 30s by tomorrow morning. Breezy southwest winds will help boost high temperatures into the low to mid 60s Sunday afternoon.  If you want to put up outdoor holiday lights, tomorrow will be a great day to do that.

Sunday Planner

Sunday Planner

Our next cold front will move in Monday night, so Monday afternoon will still be warm with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Cooler air will move in behind the front and rain chances will go up on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the upper 40s.

***The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends tomorrow. Sunday’s blog will have a full recap of the season.

Safe travels everyone!

 

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 


Storms Possible Tonight, Record Heat on Monday

November 23rd, 2014 at 9:12 pm by under Weather

Most of us have just seen scattered light rain so far this evening. Rain should become more widespread and heavier as we get closer to midnight tonight. I am tracking a warm front that will continue to lift northward through Hampton Roads overnight. Once the warm front moves through, warm, moist air will move in and the winds will really pick up. So temperatures will be rising into the 60s overnight instead of falling. Winds will increase out of the south and southeast at 20-30mph with gusts up to 40mph along the coast. Inland areas can expect sustained winds between 15-25mph with gusts up to 30mph.

Wind Forecast

Wind Forecast

The best dynamics with this storm system will move in around 12-2 AM, so if we are going to see any storms, that will be the small window when storms can develop. There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms overnight just south of the warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Southside and North Carolina in a marginal risk for severe weather and the Outer Banks in a slight risk for severe weather.

Severe Weather Risk

Severe Weather Risk

This means that the atmosphere will be a little bit more favorable for severe weather across the Outer Banks. Temperatures and dew point readings will be higher there since the warm front will move through these areas first. If any storms develop, heavy rain, gusty winds and an isolated tornado will be possible. Notice the storms developing in North Carolina by 1 AM Monday morning.

Future Trak at 1 AM

Future Trak at 1 AM Monday

Heaviest rain should move offshore by 3 AM. There may be a few showers around 7 AM, but most of the rain will have tapered off by then. Fog will likely develop overnight and become widespread by Monday morning, so watch out for reduced visibilities.

Future Trak at 7 AM

Future Trak at 7 AM

It will be a very warm and muggy morning as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 60s by 7 AM.  Near record heat is possible Monday afternoon as highs climb into the mid to upper 70s. Here are the current record highs for each climate site in our region.

Monday Record HIghs

Monday Record Highs

After the near record heat expected tomorrow, our focus shifts to the next coastal system that will impact holiday travel on Wednesday. Rain and wind is likely all day on Wednesday. A wintry mix will be possible for our northern and inland counties Wednesday night. Here is a preview of our long-term Future Trak model.

Future Trak at 8 PM Weds

Future Trak at 8 PM Weds

Keep in mind that this forecast WILL change over the next few days. Right now, we are certain that Wednesday will be a messy travel day across our area. Travel may even be difficult farther north toward Richmond, DC and into New England. Stay tuned!

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 


Rainy/Stormy Sunday Night

November 22nd, 2014 at 10:02 pm by under Weather

It was a cold night for the Grand Illumination in Norfolk and Light Up The Town in Virginia Beach. Check out the view of the lights out of Tower Cam 10 and our Virginia Beach Town Center webcam!

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Virginia Beach Town Center

Virginia Beach Town Center

With a mostly clear sky overnight, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s by Sunday morning. Sunday will be a day of change across the region. Sunday morning will be cold and dry and Sunday night will be warm and wet. Rain chances go up by the late afternoon, so Sunday will not be a wash-out. Moisture levels will be on the rise tomorrow, so clouds will be increasing throughout the day. It will take a little while to moisten up the atmosphere so rain shouldn’t develop until late in the day. North Carolina and the Southside could see rain anytime after 3 PM. Rain becomes more widespread by the dinner hour. Here is what our Future Trak model shows by 6 PM.

Future Trak at 6 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 6 PM Sunday

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Outer Banks and Mainland Dare County in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow.

Sunday Storm Risk

Sunday Storm Risk

The rest of Virginia and North Carolina could still see isolated thunderstorms, but the chance is higher for stronger storms across the Outer Banks and down through South Carolina and Georgia. The warm front will push through the Outer Banks a little bit earlier in the day, so moisture values will be higher there. Wind shear will be decent, which is when winds change speed and direction with height in the atmosphere. So storms will be able to rotate, that is IF they get going. We will have a lot of clouds most of the day and the sun sets at 4:51 PM. I think there will be a small window for the potential for strong storms across the Outer Banks. Any instability will be going down once the sun sets, which is early now. As the night wears on, the potential for severe weather will go down and the potential for heavy rain will go up as warm, moist air moves into the region. The rain gets even heavier late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Future Trak at 3 AM Monday

Future Trak at 3 AM Monday

Rain should taper off early Monday morning, but it will be a foggy, windy and warm morning with temperatures in the 60s. Highs Monday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 70s, so we will be close to record levels once again!

Tune into WAVY News 10 at 11 for an updated forecast. Plus Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will be on WAVY News 10 from 6-8 AM Sunday morning with an update on the timing of the rain.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona