Alberto's Forecast Track

Tropical Storm Alberto remains well off the coast of South Carolina & Georgia.  As of 5PM, it was located 105 miles southeast of Savannah, GA and 130 miles south of Charleston, SC. Alberto continues to drift southwest, but is expected to turn to the northeast tomorrow morning.  Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph, but the tropical storm force winds only extend about 60 miles out from the center.  The storm does not look very healthy on satellite imagery, and it is clear that colder water temperatures closer to shore, some wind shear and drier air wrapping in are having some impact.  Nonetheless, we will need to keep a close eye on Alberto, just in case something changes.  At this point, the main impact the storm will have along the coasts of North Carolina and Virginia will be potentially dangerous surf conditions, including rip tides.  The tropical-like atmosphere across the Mid-Atlantic will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms across Hampton Roads, although these will not be associated with the core of the storm.  Alberto’s closest approach to the Outer Banks will come Tuesday, albeit well offshore if the current forecast verifies.

See you on the air,
Mike Goldberg

Alberto Forecast Track

Here’s a late evening update on Alberto…maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be around 50 mph. As of 11PM EDT, the center of the storm is located about 110 miles southeast of Charleston, SC and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect along the South Carolina coast from the Savannah River to the South Swanee River. While Alberto is currently moving to the southwest, it is expected to reverse direction and turn to the northeast by Monday morning. At this time, we expect the storm to pass offshore along our coastline, but we’ll continue to monitor the system for any potential changes.

Here are a couple of further thoughts of interest…

- This is the first storm to form in the Atlantic prior to the official beginning of the hurricane season since 2003 (Ana)

- This is the first time that a tropical storm has formed in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins before the official start of the hurricane season

- Many of you have asked if this means a busy season is ahead. There really is no correlation, but remember it only takes one storm to make a season memorable in any particular location.

Meteorologist Mike Goldberg

2nd Warmest March on Record!

The official statistics are in and March came in as the 2nd warmest on record in Norfolk.  The average temperature was 59.3° , nearly 10° above average.  The warmest on record was 1945, which was just slightly warmer (by only 0.2°).  We had an unusual number of days (17) where the high temperature was above 70°.  The average is just 6 days and the record was set in 1945 (7 days).  An extraordinary 8 days produced high temperatures of 80° or higher.  The average is 2 days and the record is 10 days, again set in 1945.

We weren’t the only ones seeing the unusual warmth.  It was unprecedented in parts of the Midwest that completely shattered records.  All in all, over 7,500 daily record high temperatures were set across the United States and many cities experienced their warmest March in recorded history.

Check out some of the numbers below.  All of these cities came in 10° or more above average.  The average March temperature is listed, with the “normal” average in parentheses.

Atlanta, GA               64.5°  (54.3°)
Chicago, IL                53.5°  (37.9°)
Cleveland, OH          51.4°  (38.4°)
Detroit, MI                50.7° (37.2°)
Indianapolis, IN     56.6°  (42.2°)
Kansas City, MO      58.4°  (44.2°)
Minneapolis, MN    48.3°  (32.8°)
Nashville, TN           61.1°  (50.0°)
Pittsburgh, PA         51.5°  (39.6°)
Rapid City, SD          47.6°  (35.4°)
St. Louis, MO            61.1°  (46.3°)
Washington, DC       56.8°  (46.8°)

Even Florida got in on the act, with Tampa coming in just over 7° above average!

April is getting off to a “cooler” start here in Hampton Roads, but temperatures in the 60s are where they should be at this time of the year.  Many places in the Midwest and Plains set records today, so we’ll see what the rest of the month holds in store.

See you on the air,
Mike Goldberg

Monday AM Drive

We finished the weekend with a lot of fog and occasional showers.  The weather won’t change overnight, but tomorrow is a different story.  The storm that plagued the region throughout the weekend will move slowly offshore by morning.  Clouds, fog and a few light showers may be scattered about for the morning drive.  Visibility could be reduced below a mile at times, so be aware if you’re heading out extra early in the morning.  Temperatures will average in the low to mid 50s.  As the morning goes on, we’ll be watching a significant cold front approaching from the north.  This front will move through rapidly and clear our skies.  The afternoon will offer plenty of sunshine, but with a gusty north wind.  Sustained winds are likely to be in the 15-20 mph range, with occasional gusts over 30 mph.  The highest gusts may approach 40 mph on the Eastern Shore.

A sunny, windy afternoon

The next change will be in the temperature department.  With clear skies and a northerly breeze at night, temperatures will lower into the mid 30s inland (patchy frost is a possibility) and the low 40s along the coast by sunrise Tuesday.  Afternoon highs will come in below average on Tuesday, generally in the mid 50s.  It will be a rather short-lived cool spell, as afternoon temperatures will likely exceed 70 degrees Wednesday and Thursday.  Another shot of “cooler” air arrives on Friday.  It looks like we’ll get a little break from the rain, with our only shower chances coming overnight Wednesday into Thursday, and that shouldn’t amount to much at all.

See you on the air,
Mike Goldberg

From Brenda Brett Ramsey, Suffolk

Late this afternoon, the wind picked up, lightning could be seen and thunder heard.  Then heavy precipitation fell that many thought was hail and others sleet.  Pellets of snow/ice covered the ground in parts of Suffolk, Chesapeake and Virginia Beach.  So what was it?

Well I ruled out sleet because as you can see in the first picture to the left, the pellets were cloudy or white.  Sleet is clear and is made of raindrops that freeze falling through a cold layer in the lower atmosphere.  For this to occur, the air must be warmer further aloft and that was not the case this afternoon.  We had an impressive batch of colder air moving in aloft.  This helped trigger the instability that led to the thundershowers.  With the very cold air aloft, this was graupel or snow pellets that fell and accumulated quickly on the ground.

From Jessica, Suffolk

The technical definition of graupel from the American Meteorological Society is “precipitation consisting of white, opaque, approximately round (sometimes conical) ice particles having a snow-like structure, and about 2-5 millimeters in diameter.  The next picture to the left clearly shows that this was graupel (also sometimes referred to as “soft hail”), as the snow pellets are usually easily crushed, yet crisp.  You wouldn’t be able to make a ball like this with multiple hailstones!

Graupel is created from a process similar to hail.  Supercooled water droplets accumulate on an ice crystal or snowflake.  That is why the pellets are cloudy or white, as opposed to clear.  They often appear to look like “little Styrofoam balls.”

Today’s brief event was caused by a boundary moving into Hampton Roads that was the leading edge of colder air surging in from the northwest.

Check out a few more pictures from our WAVY Facebook page below!

See you on the air,
Mike

From Bonnie Theresa Shaw, Suffolk

From Louise Moody, Suffolk

From Bonnie Theresa Shaw, Suffolk

The moon, Venus & Jupiter in the sky

You may have noticed quite a show in our sky tonight.  The crescent moon, Venus and Jupiter are forming a rather bright triangle.  The moon is shining right beside Venus and Jupiter is lurking a bit above.  The shot to the left is from our Tower Cam 10.  The planets are rather small on this image, but below is a really nice photograph taken by my meteorological friend Brad Panovich, who serves as Chief Meteorologist at WCNC-TV, the NBC affiliate in Charlotte, NC.

If you missed it tonight, try again tomorrow night.  Check just before sunset, for a beautiful blue sky with the shining planets!  More information on this sky show is available from NASA (click here)…

Enjoy!
-Mike

Courtesy of Brad Panovich, Chief Meteorologist, WCNC-TV Charlotte, NC

So far this evening, the Williamsburg area up through Gloucester and the Northern Neck have seen snow.  Those areas have briefly mixed with rain, but will go back to snow as a rather significant area of wet snow heads south and east after midnight.  We still expect a changeover in Hampton Roads and parts of northeast North Carolina, which could put down a coating to an inch, particularly on grassy surfaces, decks, cars, etc.  The road surfaces are rather warm, so expect roads to be wet with a few areas of slush just prior to sunrise.  For the most part, temperatures are expected to be above the freezing mark.
Here’s the latest forecast for potential overnight snowfall from the Super Doppler 10 Weather Center.  While most of Hampton Roads won’t see much accumulation, an inch or two could accumulate across interior Southside and North Carolina, going north through the Peninsula to the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore.  The Williamsburg area will likely add to their total, and some places could come in with 3 inches.

We don’t expect any major problems in the morning across Hampton Roads, as road surfaces should be wet with a few areas of slush.  The sun will come out and we’ll warm into the 40s.  That will mean any snow that is on the ground should quickly melt.

Stay safe!
Mike Goldberg

It looks like everything remains on track for the storm that will bring us a mix of rain, sleet and snow through very early Monday morning.  Low pressure will track from the Gulf states to along the North Carolina coast tomorrow evening and then quickly off the coast Monday morning.  We’ll see a bit of light rain develop during the morning, with increasing rain and wind likely for the afternoon.  The rain could be on the heavy side later in the day and through the early evening across Hampton Roads.  The big question is will it change to snow, and if so, when?  Colder air will be funneling into the Commonwealth from the northwest and we’ll probably see the rain mix with sleet and snow across the Peninsula and Northern Neck later in the afternoon. 

A complete changeover to snow is possible across the Northern Neck between 6PM and 10PM, and the Peninsula/Eastern Shore between 8PM and midnight.  Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina will be the last to see the change, probably not until after midnight. Our Future Trak model output (see graphic) for midnight shows the mix/snow area just starting to enter Hampton Roads.

Even when we see the change to snow, it may be hard to accumulate much snow on the ground.  This will be due to the heavy rain that precedes it, the warm ground (with puddles/standing water) and air temperatures that will probably be just above freezing.

Nonetheless, the snow may fall for a period of several hours during the wee hours of Monday morning.  That means we could see a dusting to an inch across Southside and much of Hampton Roads.  Up the Peninsula and to the north, more snow accumulation is possible, since the changeover will take place earlier.  Much of the Peninsula (including Hampton and Newport News), the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore may see 1-2 inches by sunrise Monday.  There could be locally 3 inches around Williamsburg and across inland portions of the Northern Neck.

We’ll need to be careful early Monday morning, as any wet and slushy spots on area roads could become slippery, as temperatures could lower to near or below the freezing mark. As always, stay tuned for updates!

See you on the air,

Mike Goldberg

Winter lovers finally got a taste of what they’ve been waiting for!  Snow, wind & cold took over this weekend in Hampton Roads.  While the “thundersnow” was quite impressive, it didn’t amount to much on the ground.  There was some quick accumulation due to how fast the snow was falling, but with surface temperatures in the mid and upper 30s, it didn’t take long for the initial snow to melt.  An additional round of snow showers moved through overnight, coating the ground in Hampton Roads, and putting down another inch or so on the Northern Neck, Eastern Shore and parts of the Peninsula.  The Eastern Shore got the most snow overall, with about 2 inches on average.  Most places on the Peninsula saw about an inch and the roads became snow covered during the wee hours of Sunday morning.

If the snow wasn’t enough for you, the wind really had something to say overnight and during the day Sunday.  Peak gusts were well over 50 mph along the coast, with the highest reported gust at Kiptopeke in Northampton County on the Eastern Shore (59 mph).  The high winds were not confined to the coast, as inland areas all the way back to Richmond reported gusts over 40 mph.

Our attention tonight turns to the cold, as overnight lows are expected to be in the low and mid 20s.  Some upper teens are possible in sheltered rural communities.

A note for those of you in Northampton County, schools there will be on a 2 hour delay Monday morning.

If the cold isn’t your thing, never fear, milder air will move back into our region in time for Valentine’s Day, with afternoon temperatures bouncing back into the 50s.

Stay warm,
Mike Goldberg

The quick hit of snow over Hampton Roads late Saturday afternoon caused quite a stir!  A cold front charging into the region brought a squall line that started as rain and sleet, and quickly changed to snow.  Then all of a sudden, rumbles of thunder were heard and lightning seen.  So what happened?

Thundersnow is literally a thunderstorm that produces snow instead of rain.  While it is rare, it occasionally happens in Virginia, particularly with the passage of an unusually strong cold front or during a very intense snowstorm.  The most famous example of thundersnow that comes to mind is the February 2011 blizzard in Chicago.  Jim Cantore was live on The Weather Channel when the thunder occurred. 

You need just the right ingredients to get thundersnow.  Very cold air aloft and the approaching cold front caused strong vertical motion in the atmosphere.  This set-up is very similar to what occurs during a spring or summer thunderstorm.  The storm becomes convective in nature, with thunder and lightning the result.

So why don’t we see thundersnow more often?  It’s rare because the temperature profile in the atmosphere usually doesn’t support convection and snow at the same time.  Typically the lower layers of the atmosphere are quite cold with lower dew points.  This results in relatively drier air and greater stability.  Today, however, you probably noticed that the air temperature when the change to snow occurred was around 40 degrees.  The air aloft was much colder, creating the needed instability for a quick burst of heavy snow.  Some of the cold air then rushed to the surface as the front moved through.

So the wild weather in Hampton Roads continues!  While the wind will kick up a bit and it will be cold to finish the weekend, a lot of sunshine is expected.

See you on the air,
Mike Goldberg