Everybody is emailing me about the Winter Forecast. Some major weather firms across the country are forecasting a cold snowy Winter for this area. While I love snow more than any human alive…I am not prepared to make such a forecast.  In fact I must tell you the science behind long-range forecasting is so suspect…I simply ignore it.  I would love to do those forecasts because I know everybody is curious about the season ahead. But this fact is irrefutable…nobody can accurately forecast the weather more than 5-7 days in advance. The Farmers Almanac can not…the hurricane forecasters cannot…rug rats and groundhogs cannot…the smartest Doctor of Weather cannot. This is why I do not place much trust in the forecasts for global warming…if we can’t accurately forecast the weather a week or two in advance…then why I should I place my faith and trust in a forecast a decade or more out including the global warming hype? The variables that go into forecasting are simply too complex and variable and often not measured well on an empirical basis to be very accurate. So enjoy those forecasts but don’t be surprised when they are wrong!
Jon Cash

As of this writing early Friday morning the tide is rolling back into the area. The high tide yesterday evening was officially 2 inches below hurricane Isabel in 2003 for the metro area. Many people have reported tides higher than Isabel and many have said it was lower. Why the discrepancy? This noreaster has brought a consistent northeast wind throughout the storm. That tends to pond the water in areas “downwind” of that direction. With Isabel, the wind started northeast but turned east and then southeast at the time of high tide. This tended to push the water a bit higher on the shores facing the east and south. So it simply depended where you live. Tides on the Eastern Shore, Outer Banks, and northern areas on the Chesapeake Bay experienced tides running about 1 foot or so below Isabel levels. The high tide this morning will be less than yesterday evenings…but it will still be severe!

The new forecast is for the high tide this evening to hit 7.5 feet above mean low water level or average low tide. Stick a ruler in that water and measure up 7.5 feet…that’s how high the water should go this evening. This morning it hit 6.7 feet..so a good 10 inches higher…and compare that to 7.9 feet for Isabel…and that’s only a few inches below Isabel! Here’s the deal. The current near shore wind during the early morning hours is 50-60 mph. I believe those winds will decrease slightly through the afternoon…if they don’t…then that wind will push even more water into the coastal zones and the flood could come too close to Isabel levels. Stay tuned on this one.
Jon Cash

Today is the day! The highest winds and the worst tides will occur today as the remnants of Ida glides by just south of Hatteras. The low has gotten close enough to the southern part of the Outer Banks to allow the pressure gradient (difference in pressure) to relax greatly…so the wind hasn’t been bad at all down there. While Hatteras has been experiencing 25 mph with gusts…Duck to Corolla has been experiencing 50 mph gusts and they are close to 60 mph from Sandbridge to Cape Henry. It’s all about where the greatest pressure “gradient” is that leads to the highest winds…hence the biggest waves…and then the biggest problems with flooding, overwash, and coastal property damage.
Jon Cash

This November Noreaster will be a very strong storm. The key to the forecast will the exact wind speed just off shore. The Ash Wednesday storm of 1962 brought tens of millions of dollars in damage to the area and a tide one foot higher than Isabel in 2003. That storm was three days long. The offshore winds were 60-65 mph for three days leading to that historic high tide. Currently the thinking is that the winds will be running 45-55 mph off shore for three days…that lower wind should keep the tide just below Hurricane Isabel levels…any increase of decrease in that wind will either add to or subtract from the water levels and the damage in the region.  Remember the tide was one foot higher during Ash Wednesday than Hurricane Isabel.  With the projected winds from this storm…the tide should top out a big below Hurricane Isabel.  So the wind speed offshore is CRITICAL to this forecast and the damage that could occur.  Stay tuned!

Jon Cash

Imagine three days of rain heavy at times and very windy conditions…especially near the coast. While inland winds will barely reach 30 mph, winds along the coast could easily gust between 45-50 mph for several days. This will lead to a massive build-up of water that will only get worse with each tidal high cycle starting tomorrow morning. While the exact height of the tidal flooding is still questionable over the next several days…the potential exists for tidal flooding that could come close to what we experienced with Hurricane Isabel in 2003. It will depend on the winds speeds off shore. If the winds hit 55-60 mph offshore…for several days…the flooding could even be a bit worse…while if the winds remain between 40-45 mph…the flooding will be about a foot below what we experienced during Isabel. You might remember or have heard about the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962. That storm lasted three days (sound familiar?) and brought winds over 60mph offshore. The water was one foot higher with that storm than with Isabel! This will have to watched very, very closely! Property damage could be very high if those offshore winds get over 50 mph for that length of time. Weaker dunes could be destroyed and the ocean could invade inland spots…especially along portions of the Outer Banks.

Jon Cash

The set up Wednesday through Friday looks very ugly! A strong high pressure to the north of the area pumping in strong winds…and then add onto that the remnants of Ida stalling out east of the Georgia coast…pumping in wind as well. It’s a perfect set up for a rather large, long noreaster for the local area. Winds of 20-30 inland…30-40 in the metro and 40-50 on the coast and down on the Outer Banks. Not a big deal if it lasted 10 or 12 hours…some minor tidal flooding and rain. Not this time! This pattern stalls out bring these terrible conditions for 72 hours…leading to more significant coastal flooding and possibly some homes perched too close to the ocean on the Outer Banks to fall in! This is is going to have to be watched…very carefully…
Meteorologist Jon Cash

After a super-quiet hurricane season, hurricane Ida formed near the Central American coast early this morning. This is not unusual. Prime locations for late season storms are in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Carribean. Why? The jet stream drops south through the Fall season and tends to rip apart thunderstorms from centralizing around a central core or low pressure system. The Fall jet stream has not made it that far south as of yet and the water temps are still very warm…above 80 degrees…the temp your need for tropical system formation. Where is it going. It is moving inland now and whatever is left of it should eventually make it into the Gulf of Mexico later in the weekend or early next week. It’s way to early to tell if we could get some rain from that later next week…but stay tuned! Crazier things have happened…

Jon Cash

A strong front is draped across the metro area this afternoon.  There is a sharp temperature contrast along the front.  Helicity values are rather high along and just south of the front which means there is plenty of spin in the atmosphere that could lead to the formation of isolated tornadoes!  Numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon that could have very strong gusty winds in excess of 55 mph and lots of cloud to ground lightning.

The threat for severe weather is very high at this point.  There is lots of moisture in the atmosphere and plenty of wind energy above the surface…

A cold front will be approaching the region late today into this evening.  Some storms could turn severe with this and here are the reasons….

1.  A jetstream of 75 mph above the surface

2.  Dew points rising into the mid to upper 60s…this is the moisture needed to help the air lift and form clouds

3. Temps well into the 70s also adds to the instability which should help the storms pop during a couple of hours after maximum heating

4. An upper level disturbance (cool pool of air at the jetstream level) that helps the temperature difference between the surface and 10 to 20 thousand feet increase

5. The cold front itself…a good location for the storms to line up

There doesn’t appear to be alot of helicity (spin) in the atmosphere with this so the primary threats should be hail and strong gusty winds…stay tuned!

Meteorologist Jon Cash