Here we go again.  Another chance for snow in the forecast.  I think the number of snow lovers is gradually decreasing here in the area.  (Yes there are still thousands).  But even Jon doesn’t do the snow hope index anymore. 

Regardless of which camp you are in, here’s the skinny on the next few days.  Tonight into tomorrow an area of low pressure will move from the Gulf Of Mexico up along the southeast coast.  It should stay far enough south that most of Hampton Roads will only see some light snow amounts.  Probably…  The models have been fairly consistent in keeping the low south and east of the area.  If the low moves a little further north, then the southside will see more snow.  For now there is a Winter Storm Warning for Dare county in North Carolina where the Outer Banks and mainland Dare County could see 3-5″ of snow.  They will be closest to the low, so that’s why.  Northeast North Carolina can expect 1-3″ with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect. 

   The Southside is a little questionable.  Dry air from the north will fight the moisture from the south. The battle line for that will be right over the Southside.  So for now we have a Winter Weather Advisory for Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Suffolk.  We can expect a dusting up to an inch in Suffolk, with 1-2″ possible for the rest of the Southside.  I don’t expect much for the Peninsula nor the Eastern Shore.  I would say maybe a dusting possible for the Peninsula with a dusting up to a half inch possible on the Eastern Shore.  It’s hard to say how much of all that will stick only to the grass.  Temperatures area expected to drop to the upper 20s, so expect some on the  roads.  Afternoon highs will be in the mid 30s.  If the surface low moves a little further northward, then we could see a little more snow, but mostly along the coast. The snow will start up late tonight, but the bulk of the snow will fall early tomorrow.  Here are two shots from our Future Trak computer model:  The first one is from 2:00am tomorrow morning.

Future Trak 2:00am Saturday

Future Track 8:00am Saturday

That back and forth of the model between snow and no snow tells me that it will be a tricky forecast.  Based off of recent events it seems that there is plenty of moisture on the ground to rule out a dry forecast. (no snow at all in Hampton Roads).  We could see a little bit more in the afternoon as the upper level low crosses our area.  Flurries or a few light snow showers are expected with that feature. 

We’ll dry out by Saturday evening.  Sunday will have sunshine with highs in the lower 40s.  The next system comes in late Monday.  I will not throw out any amounts at this time.  It’s just too early.  That system looks like it will move through fairly quickly though.  The low appears to move right over our area from southwest to northeast.  We could even see some downsloping/drying from the mountains which could make forecast amounts tricky.  I’ll blog about that in a lot of detail over the weekend. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

We had a few bands of very heavy snow showers coming down across the area this morning.  Here was the view from Super Doppler 10 at about 9:30am. 

Super doppler 10

We had a lot of snow reports come in.  Here is a rough map of the totals:

Snow Totals

Accident in the snow

Here are some more scenic photos from around the area.  This one was sent in by Tracie Cimaglio in Newport News Park:

Newport News park

This next photo is from Hall Road in Hampton.  Check out the deer.  You can actually see their eyes.  Katherine Kearney took the pic:

Deer In snow

Finally, this last photo was a geat shot of the Coleman Bridge up in Gloucester Point.  Thanks Rusty West. 

Coleman Bridge

We’ll have a lot of sunshine today.  High temperatures will only be in the lower 30s though.  Winds NW 10-20mph.  The sun should melt some of the ice on the roads.  Overall, roads should be good tonight as you head to the Super Bowl parties.  The exception will be the cities north of the metro that got over 3″ of snow. 

Tonight temps will drop down to the low 20s with teens inland.  Dry with upper 30s tomorrow.  Rain will move in late Tuesday.  We could see a little snow mix in in some northern sections early Wednesday, but I’m not too concerned about it at this time. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

We’re almost done with the snow.  Here was the view from Super Doppler 10 at a little after 6pm.

Super Doppler 10

Snow 2010 Croaker, VA

This next one was from Metompkin Bay near Parksley on the Eastern Shore:

Snow 2010 Near Parksley

This was sent in by Robert Coniglio. 

Finally, this last photo was from the Gloucester area.  Thanks Melinda Dunlap:

Snow 2010 Gloucester

Tomorrow highs will be in the lower 30s.  There should be sunshine. So that will melt some of the snow/ice.  Especially where only light amounts of snow fell today.  Roads should be ok overall for travelling to Super Bowl events tomorrow night.  However, there will be some areas north of the metro that will still have snow on the secondaries.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Here’s the afternoon update.  It’s really coming down in Portsmouth at the TV station.  A lot of areas had pockets of moderate to heavy snow.  It was just starting to stick on the southside.   A viewer from Yorktown said it is starting to stick to the roads.  Temperatures are in the lower 30s, but a lot of the temps just got to the freezing mark.  As I mentioned in a previous blog there was a lot of water on the ground, and it is tough for the snow to stick on that.  Here was a snapshot of Super Doppler 10 from about 1:30pm:

Super Doppler 10 1:30pm

Interesting… The temperatures have come up to the lower 40s tonight with the strong easterly winds blowing off of the ocean.  I talked a lot about the flooding recently.  It’s only 9:00 and my backyard is a pool already.  We still have the overnight to go.  Radar estimates aren’t that impressive.  They show about a half inch to an inch of rain so far.  It will add up tonight though.  Jon Cash is in for the morning show tomorrow.  He’ll do a blog update then probably.  Our model was showing some let-up in the morning.  Will that let the water go down?  Will that let the sun pop out?  Why am I asking rhetorical questions?  Tough to say.  But don’t be surprised if you wake up to very windy conditions.  See the previous blogs for a lot more detail on this system.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

(Update….Rather than start a new blog, I thought I’d update this one.  Winter Storm Warning now for the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Accomack county.  Winter Weather Advisory for the Peninsula, Southside, and Northampton county, VA.  High Wind warning for coastal areas for wind gusts between 50-60mph.  Rain has taken over most of the metro and the rain/snow line is now moving through the Middle Peninsula. Here’s the latest snow estimates for tomorrow:  dusting to 1 inch North Carolina, 1-3″ southside, 1-3″ peninsula, 2-5″ williamsburg, 2-5″ Middle Peninsula, 1-3″ lower Eastern Shore, 2-5″ Accomack, 6-10″ Northern Neck. Again, see below for snow accumulations versus standing water)

Here’s the previous discussion:

You are not dreaming or seeing things.  There is still some snow in the area.  We did get quite a few reports of snow between noon and 3pm.  We had some evaporative cooling happening and that created some pockets of snow and mix this early afternoon.  As the precipitation falls it cools due to evaporation (with the right conditions).  Snow forms and lasts until the air is saturated (totally moist).  The rain/snow line is pushing northward though.  Slowly!  I am very confident that this will all be rain by tonight.  The exception is up towards Richmond and the Northern Neck.  They could stay a rain/snow mix tonight.  Here’s the forecast map.  Pink is a rain/snow mix.

Tonight's Forecast

Tomorrow's Forecast

 Snow showers will increase thorugh Saturday evening and then taper off before midnight.  Here is the snow totals map that I used at midday:

Snow Forecast

Expect a dusting up to 2″ in the non colored area.  Here’s the thing about this map…  I mentioned on a previous blog that if there is standing water everywhere, then it will be very tough for the snow to stick to the ground.  So I think a lot of this snow will fall out of the sky, but will melt.  If the cold air can move down quicker, then the top layer of water can freeze.  Then we can see those numbers on the ground.  For now I’m leaning towards the lower numbers in the range.  It’s interesting that the NAM is showing more snow for the area. (5″ for Norfolk with a 10-1 ratio), but our Futuretrak is showing much lower amounts.  (About 1.5″ for Norfolk).  Our model is very high resolution and is probably doing a better job with the temperatures. We’ll see.   It really did a good job during the last storm.  Here is a snapshot of Futuretrak at 3:00pm tomorrow:

Future Trak Tomorrow

This was the overnight run.  Don Slater will have the updated morning version tonight at 5:00pm.  It is looking like it has a good handle on the rain/snow.  The heaviest snow by far is forecast to fall from Richmond to the Northern Neck up to Washington D.C.  Some forecasters are calling for 20inches of snow there.  Looking at the latest radar, I can believe it.  This will shut down some of the North Virginia Cities for a couple of days.   Keep that in mind if you are travelling.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

You’re all going to have to pardon me.  I’m working from home (on my day off), so I can’t do a high quality blog like I’d like to do.  The bottom line…this weekend is just going to be a mess.  We have a Flood Watch up for most of the viewing area.  We have Coastal Flood Advisories for the tidal flooding on Saturday.  There is a Winter Storm Watch up for the Northern Neck and Middlesex county.  That could shift over to Accomack county, but we’ll see. 

A large area of low pressure is expected to move through the region.  It will turn into a classical Nor’easter with about 998mb of pressure.  (A fairly strong low pressure system). 

Snow:  We could start out with a little rain/snow mix tomorrow morning as the moisture moves into a fairly cold airmass.  As the day moves on though, the warmer south/southeast winds will push the rain snow line way north. The rain that falls will melt just about anything that is on the ground.  Saturday afternoon the rain/snow line will begin to push back southward.  This will let snow move back into Hampton Roads.  The amount of moisture that hangs back behind the low will determine how much snow gets into the metro area.  Another factor as to how much snow will actually be on the ground is the standing water.  I’m expecting widespread flooded back yards and a lot of streets could be flooded.  As the snow falls on this, it will be tough to stick.  If the cold air can come down before the snow really gets going, then it’s possible to turn some of that into ice.  Then the snow can stick.  Any salt on the roads that is put out tonight has a chance to get washed away.  I saw Don Slater’s evening forecast for amounts.  He’s generally calling for a gradual increase of snow from southeast to northwest.  Flurries for the Outer Banks, northeast North Carolina,  and the southside.  Possibly an inch or two across parts of the southside (mainly inland).  About 1-3″ for the Peninsula.  Williamsburg was in his 4-6″ with higher amounts towards Richmond.  The Middle Peninsula could see about 2-5″, but the Northern Neck could see up to 10″.  Possibly more.  The Eastern Shore will also see an increase from south to north.  Cape Charles in the 1-2″ range.  Chincoteague in the 5-9″ range.  So the problem is that the models are spitting out some amounts, but it will be hard for that to stick as water will cover a lot of the ground.  They are talking about over 15″ in some areas around Washington D.C. up to Baltimore.  If you have travel plans for Saturday, then you may have to have a backup plan. 

Flooding/Rain:  We could see 1-3″ of rain before this system departs. 

HPC Estimated Rainfall

This is the latest rainfall forecast from HPC.   With the rain that we’ve already seen, that is why the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch.  This will create a lot of minor flooding in the area as the water is running out of places for it to go.  Especially with possible tidal flooding….

Tidal Flooding:  The forecast for Saturday at Sewell’s Point is about 5.5 feet.  This means that the tides are expected to run about 2-3feet above normal.  That will be around 3 pm in the afternoon at the highest.  The Nor’easter of 09′ got up to about 7.3ft.  So minor to moderate tidal flooding is forecast.  After the big Nor’easter in 09′, we had another smaller one that caused some tidal flooding.  I have the records up at work, but I think it was in December.  I think we’ll see similar tidal flooding compared to that.   (See older blogs)

Wind: Winds will gust between 40-50mph.  It is why we are expecting tidal flooding.  We could some power outages, but they usually aren’t widespread until you get winds gusting between 50-60mph. 

No matter what happens, this will be a mess of a system.  A lot of people may not want the Snow Hope Index up this time.  Think about how many Super Bowl parties would have to be cancelled on Sunday if there was a lot of snow on the ground! Oh boy!  At least the weather will be much quieter on Sunday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The more I look at this next system, the more I think we are going to see problems other than snow on the roads.  Don’t worry snow is still in the forecast.  The morning and afternoon model runs are pretty similar. They are showing a warm enough airmass to have cold rain from Friday morning through the overnight into Saturday morning.  Rain showers are forecast to change over to snow showers by about Saturday afternoon, but dry air could come in on the back side and limit amounts.  Higher amounts are forecast north of the metro area.  It’s a rough guess right now, but the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore could see 2-5″ of snow.  I won’t get specific for the metro, but for now the range  goes from nothing but rain up to a couple of inches.  (That’s a very rough guess).

  Some other impacts from this system include rain and wind.  It’s shaping up to be a Nor’easter type storm.  We could get 1-2″ of rain before it’s over.  I shouldn’t have to remind you that the ground is sopping wet from the melting snow.  We’ll dry out a little tomorrow, but the ground will still be saturated.  The latest raw numbers are showing wind gusts possibly between 40-50mph on Saturday.  The surface low is a lot stronger than the last one,  and that is going to make it behave a lot differently.  This stronger system will be able to push the warmer air further north.  It’s also why we could get some strong winds and flooding.  Minor to moderate tidal flooding is also possible.  The natural tide isn’t too high, but the northeast winds will pick up for a while.  The forecast on the NWS website shows a 6ft tide at Sewell’s point on Saturday morning.  That number is likely to change before the event. 

As far as heavy snow goes… that is forecast for Northern Virginia from Charlottesville to D.C.  One way we could get some heavy snow here would be if the low sits just offshore for a longer time.  But it even looks like the upper level low will push offshore by Saturday afternoon.  So that doesn’t look reasonable to me.  We’ll see.  With the main event on Saturday, this system is still almost 3 days away.  We’ll get more detailed tomorrow, and maybe Jon will forecast some snow amounts by midday. 

Meteorlogist: Jeremy Wheeler

Estimated Snow Totals

Snowy Sunrise

Beautiful picture there.  Thanks for sending.  This next one was from downtown Suffolk. We actually have one like this in our weather graphics that we occasionally use.  This was from William Drayton.

Snow 2010 Suffolk Downtown

Finally, this last photo was send in from marianne Seibel.  It is a fox walking through the snow.

Fox In Snow

Thanks for all of the nice comments on here and your input during the storm.  Today we will stay cold with highs near 30 degrees.  Tonight, lows will drop down into the teens with clear skies and light winds.  Tomorrow we’ll finally get above freezing, but only by a few degrees in the afternoon. 

Next Tuesday night we will have a week system offshore.  This will probably bring us some cold rain with sleet, but inland locations could see another round of light snow.  We’ll have a more specific forecast tomorrow.  By the way, the models are showing another big system next Sunday.  It could be a long February. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler