Jeremy Wheeler

Total Lunar Eclipse Soon

October 6th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

Normally, I start off by talking about the local weather story.  However, meteorologist Tiffany Savona already did a good job of that last night.  So here is her blog with the details: Tiffany’s Weather Blog.

Since she had the local weather covered, I wanted to mention an upcoming celestial event.  There will be a total lunar eclipse this next Wednesday morning (Oct. 8th).  However, it may be difficult to see.  First off there is likely to be at least some clouds in the region.  They may clear out in time, but we’ll see.  Secondly, the window to see it will be fairly brief.  This is because it will happen just a little before the moon sets, and shortly after the sun rises.  So due to the curvature of the earth and refraction you will be able to see both at the same time. (Weather pending).  This is called a syzygy.   Here’s a link with more information.  Total lunar Eclipse.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Time For Jackets And Hot Chocolate!

October 3rd, 2014 at 8:44 am by under Weather

There’s some cooler weather on the way.  It’s about time to pull out those sweaters, and to buy the big packets of hot chocolate.  But hold on! We have one more warm day to get through first.  High pressure is in the region, but it is pushing offshore.  This will allow for more southerly winds today.  That will help to get the temperatures going into the upper 70s to low 80s in the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

As you can see there were some heavy duty showers over Kentucky and Tennessee. As these move east, most of them will fall apart.  A few of them may survive and push in by the early evening.  1 or 2 may even reach our far inland areas late in the afternoon.  However, the models only show a stray shower possible during that time.  The bulk of the rain will come in after midnight.  The cold front will move through the region early tomorrow morning.  There will be scattered showers moving through with the front.  They will linger behind the front until about 10-11am.  Here is what Future Trak shows for 7 am and noon tomorrow.

Future Trak (7am Sat)

Future Trak (7am Sat)

 

Future Trak (Noon Sat.)

Future Trak (Noon Sat.)

Notice at noon that there may be a stray shower along the coast, but it will push out shortly after that.  We are only looking at a couple tenths of an inch of rain in the region.  The cold front will quickly dive to the east/southeast.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

This will allow us to quickly dry out during the afternoon. However high temps won’t be too cool just yet because the winds will be more out of the west than the north.  So temps will still be able to rise into the mid 70s.  Saturday night will be a different story.  We’ll have clear skies, lighter winds, and dry air.  So low temperatures will drop down to the 40s area-wide.  We may even see some low-mid 40s inland.  It will be chilly.  Especially if you are in a tent.  Yep.  I’ll be camping this weekend with the scouts.  Also it will be chilly for the JT Walk down at the oceanfront on Sunday.  Also… the Crawlin Crab events up in Hampton will be chilly.  We’ll only see highs in the mid 60s on Sunday, but at least we’ll have plenty of sunshine.  We’ll warm up to the low 70s by early next week, but Monday will also start with lows in the 40s.  Ladies and gentlemen…get your hot chocolate mugs ready!  Or your pumpkin flavored latte mugs.  Either way.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


On Track For Change

October 2nd, 2014 at 9:02 am by under Weather

We are still on track to get some big changes this weekend.  Even this morning there was one noticeable change…A lack of fog.  A weak disturbance rolled in last night and produced a few sprinkles.  It also increased the clouds in the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The clouds helped to prohibit fog formation.  This happens as the clouds act like a blanket and keeps the surface temps from falling. Therefore since temps don’t drop to the dew point, then the water vapor in the air does not condense.  So fog is not likely during cloudy nights.  There are exceptions.  One area was an exception to the lack of fog this morning.  The Eastern Shore did have some for a brief while.  For the rest of the day though high pressure will dominate the weather.  So we’ll have partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 70s.  There may be 1 or 2 inland readings near 80.

There is a cold front in the Midwest that is causing lots of stormy weather today. As this system moves east it will weaken over the next 24 hours.  The front will make it to western Virginia by tomorrow evening.  We’ll be ahead of it with some warm temperatures during the day.  Skies will be partly cloudy

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The front will move through our area late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Rain will move in with the front.  The latest models have the rain lasting through most of the morning Saturday.  They may continue up until noon along the coast, but then they will push out during the afternoon.  Some of the models are calling for more in the way of scattered showers for Saturday morning.  The GFS still has a continuous line of showers.  Either way at least some rain is likely during Saturday morning.  Temperatures won’t cool down too much on Saturday.  However, we’ll drop down to the upper 40s to low 50s Saturday night.  Skies will clear.  Then we’ll see nice weather and highs in the mid-upper 60s on Sunday.  By Monday morning we’ll see lows in the 40s area-wide.  It will be some of the coolest air that we’ll have had since last Spring.  Course we did have that one weird/cool day in the middle of last Summer, but it didn’t get that cool in the metro.

We’ll have nice weather and mild temps early next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cool Front For Now, Big Change This Weekend!

October 1st, 2014 at 8:15 am by under Weather

While it was another quiet morning across the region, it was also foggy again for some local towns and counties.  We had more school delays in North Carolina. Yesterday that fog held on for a long time over parts of central Virginia/North Carolina.  Hopefully, that won’t happen again.

Today there is a weak cool front moving through the region.  Also, there is a weak mid-level disturbance to our north.  This is causing a few showers over Maryland this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Both of these features will sink south through the afternoon.  This will give us a few sprinkles in the region later today.  It will also keep the temperatures mild.

By Friday we’ll change the weather pattern up.  A warm front will make it through the region.  Winds will be out of the south/southeast and skies will be partly cloudy.

Friday's Forecast

Friday’s Forecast

High temps will push up to near 80 on Friday, but this warmth is temporary.  A strong cold front will move through the region late Friday night into early Saturday.

Saturday's Forecast

Saturday’s Forecast

There will be some rain showers near the front.  An isolated thunderstorm is even possible.  For now this looks like it will happen late Friday night, and the rain will last through the mid morning on Saturday.  Keep in mind that the trend has been to hold on to the showers a little later in the morning on Saturday.  Cooler/Drier air will filter in through the day.  So by Saturday afternoon we should be partly cloudy with highs in the 70s.  Temps may even drop a bit.  The colder air will really sink in by Saturday night.  Lows will be in the 50s area-wide.  There may even be some 40s inland.

If you like Fall weather, then it should be very nice for you on Sunday.  We’ll be partly sunny with highs in the mid-upper 60s.  Then we’ll warm up just a bit on Monday.

The tropics are awfully quiet lately.  We are coming out of the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and we are running below average.   Usually by mid-October, Hampton Roads is in the clear.  That is for MOST years.  Not all years. I.E. Hurricane Sandy.

Average Hurricane Season

Average Hurricane Season

Higher wind shear along with some dry Saharan air has helped to keep the activity down this year in the Atlantic, but the Pacific has been busy.

I did find a neat article which talks about the Hurricane Hunters and those that fly into hurricanes.  It gives a little history including the first official flight into a hurricane and some losses that have happened while flying. Here’s the story: Hurricane Hunters (70 years of info).

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


In-Between Distubances

September 30th, 2014 at 8:36 am by under Weather

There was some rain in the region yesterday and last night.  This was along a weak disturbance in the atmosphere that has since moved out.  The rain didn’t add up to much, but a couple tenths of an inch did fall from the Peninsula northward.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

Pam in Gloucester had 0.25″ of rain.  The moisture on the ground, light winds, and inland clearing led to some fog this morning.  It was pretty thick inland, but it wasn’t bad along the coast.  Today high pressure will build in a bit from the west.  So we’ll see some nice weather with partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Tomorrow another weak disturbance will move into the region (in the mid levels).  This will increase the clouds and may even cause a few sprinkles.  Highs will be in the 70s.  We’ll stay mild and go dry for Thursday.  Then we’ll warm up on Friday.  Highs will get up into the 80s ahead of the next big cold front.  So the front will move through Friday night into early Saturday.  This will give us some scattered rain showers.  Those should push out by mid-Saturday morning.  Then we’ll have some beautiful weather for the rest of the weekend.  However, it will be much cooler. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Lows will be in the 50s with some 40s possible inland.  Now there’s a taste of Fall for you.  We’ll warm up a bit then by next Monday.

I found this on the internet this morning.  I’ve never seen a cloud like this before.  At least not this large.   Apparently it is a large circle cloud that was spotted on satellite.  Very cool. Check it out. Circle cloud over the Pacific.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cloudy Start To The Week

September 29th, 2014 at 8:44 am by under Weather

It was a very nice/quiet weekend.   We had a lot of sunshine with some clouds building in late yesterday.  After the dryness over the last 48 hours, now the moisture is pushing back in.  In fact this has caused some showers to form just to our west in the overnight.  The scattered light showers are pushing east and will move through the region today.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There are actually no big weather systems around.  There’s a weak high to the north, a weak low to the southwest, and a weak front over the Midwest.  So our showers are coming from the moisture push, some weak overrunning, and a weak mid-level disturbance.  See a theme?

I put the chance for rain at 30% with a higher chance later this afternoon into the evening.  Amounts should be a couple tenths of an inch or less.  This will all push out by tomorrow. We’ll see nice weather by the late morning and afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s both days.  We’ll stay in the 70s until Friday.  Then we’ll warm up to near 80.  This warmth will be ahead of the next cold front.  That front will move through Friday night into early Saturday.  So we’ll cool down Saturday and Sunday.  If we’re lucky then the rain will be confined to Saturday morning.  I’ve got some camping and the Children’s festival.  So I’ve got my fingers crossed.  Stay tuned for updates to the timing.  Highs on Sunday will be near 70.  Maybe even in the 60s.  We’ll see.

The tropics are still quiet, however, there is one area to note.  There is a weak disturbance near Bermuda that has brought that region some heavy rain.  It isn’t a strong system, but it does have a low potential for forming into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days.

Disturbance In The Tropics

Disturbance In The Tropics

For now it is expected to stay out to sea.  Stay tuned for updates.

Speaking of updates….The drought in California is causing more and more problems.  Here’s one that may affect you locally:  Food prices.  Here’s an article with more info: California Crop Shortages.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Ready….Set…..Wait…Waiiiitt.

September 26th, 2014 at 8:17 am by under Weather

Like Runners at a starting line, folks are lined up waiting for some sunshine.  They are hungry (for the sun), and they are ready to dry out.  This morning was well before start time.  We had lots of clouds and pockets of drizzle.  It wasn’t windy, but there was a breeze out of the north.  The area of low pressure that caused all the rain is long gone.  However, we are still on the edge of some moisture and clouds.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High pressure will gradually try to build in from the west today.  We’ll gradually try to clear up through the day.  So my race metaphor may be a little misleading.  It won’t clear up all at once.  Still… we will improve by later this afternoon/evening.  The wind will be out of the north at 10-15mph.  It’s tough to clear out on a north wind during the cool season, but I’d say we aren’t fully into cool season yet.  Plus some drier air to the north should filter in today as well.  Therefore I’m optimistic.  Cautiously optimistic.  Highs will be in the mid 70s.  We’ll clear out tonight for sure with just a few clouds.  Lows will be in the 60s.

We are still looking good this weekend. High pressure will sit over the region. This will give us fair skies and highs in the 70s.  Should be great for all the outdoor events.  We’ll see a return of some rain early next week.

Now you may have heard about this story recently.  Radars don’t just detect rain and snow.  Sometimes wildlife can be picked up on radar.  Bugs and birds are often detected.  Here was one recent episode from Missouri: Butterflies on radar.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


The Moisture Won’t Leave

September 25th, 2014 at 8:33 am by under Weather

The rain picked up yesterday.  It was a widespread/soaking rain that lasted for a long time.  The cause was an area of low pressure that was wrapped in a lot of humidity.  It dropped a solid 1-2″ of rain through the region. Some cities even saw about 2.5″ of rain.

24  Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

My weather watcher Mike in Whaleyville had 2.9″ of rain.  Pam in Gloucester had 1.5″.  We had a little more rain than forecast in the inland locations as the low expanded quite a bit, and was also a little farther west than anticipated.  The rain started to break up by yesterday evening.  However, the clouds and moisture are sticking around.  This moisture is in a fairly isolated area when you look at things region-by-region.

Dew Points

Dew Points

The moisture will hang around today.  Also, even though the low is to our north, there is a stationary front stretching through our area.

Stationary Front

Stationary Front

So we will have a few showers today, but it won’t be like yesterday.  The chance for rain is only 20%.  A little higher over the Outer Banks.  High pressure is trying to build in from the west, but it has put on the brakes and is stalling out.  We’ll have a lot of clouds, but the winds are not as bad.  Yesterday we had some gusts to 35mph.  Today we’ll see a northwest wind at 10mph.  10-15mph on the Eastern Shore.

The spotty showers and sprinkles will continue into tonight and even a little early tomorrow.  However, we’ll clear up nicely late Friday, and the good weather will continue into the weekend.

In national news…I found this neat article about cicadas.  Looks like we may see more of them in the future.  Cicadas and climate.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Coastal Low Moving Through

September 24th, 2014 at 7:25 am by under Weather

The area of low pressure is moving into the region.  It’s not a strong system, but it does have quite a bit of moisture to it.  The rain has already been pushing into the region this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Some of this rain was caused by overrunning as the warm/moist air moved over the cooler/drier airmass that has been in place in the region.  However as we go through the later morning the rain will be primarily from the low.  One interesting thing about this system is that if it weren’t for an interaction with a high to the north, then our winds actually wouldn’t be too bad.  We’ve seen this happen many times.

Today's Forecast Map

Today’s Forecast Map

The winds will be out of the northeast at 15-25mph with gusts up to 35mph.  Especially near the shore.  Between that and the rain today the temperatures will be stuck in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Rain will be pretty widespread by the late morning and midday hours.  It will be heavy at times.

Future Trak (Noon Today)

Future Trak (Noon Today)

The trend has been earlier and earlier with everything.  So since the rain has started earlier, it will also taper off sooner.  By 5pm we’ll only see a 40% chance for rain.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

Then during the overnight the low will push north, and the rain will push out.  Tomorrow the weak low will move north and the high will push more west.  We’ll still see lots of clouds and perhaps a stray shower, but the forecast has dried up significantly.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

 

The wind will be out of the northwest, but not as strong.  It will run at about 10-15mph.  We’ll see nice weather then going into the weekend.

Rain totals were tricky today.  I saw the models yesterday from our other meteorologists and it looked like we were going to get 3-4″.  This morning the models have definitely backed off.  I’ve put together a map of what I think is going to fall in the next 24 hours.  Here it is:

Rain Totals Forecast

Rain Totals Forecast

That is based off of several different sources including our Future Trak model, the National Weather Service, and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).  Even the WPC backed off the rain a bit since yesterday.  Regardless it will be wet and windy.

Now some of the rain will fall during high tide today.  That may be a problem.  Luckily the tide itself won’t be too bad.  The moon is in the new moon phase.  So the tide is up a bit anyway.  With the northeast wind added to it, we are looking at a 1 – 1.5 ft rise in water levels.  So Sewell’s Point is forecast to get up to a touch above 4 ft.  Remember minor tidal flooding starts at 4.5 ft.
Here is the tide forecast for that location:

Tide Forecast (Sewell's Point)

Tide Forecast (Sewell’s Point)

The tide will rise between 9-11am.  If the rain gets heavy during that time, then it just won’t drain well.  This could create some street flooding in the tidal-prone areas.  Luckily this will be after most of the morning commute.  The evening commute will be closer to low tide. So that shouldn’t be an issue. Plus, the rain will taper off by then.

So overall we will be fine today.  There will be a few problem areas, but it could be much worse.  I’m already looking forward to the nice weekend.  The Neptune Festival is happening in Virginia Beach.  Gotta have good weather for the sand sculpture contest.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Coastal Low To Develop

September 23rd, 2014 at 8:48 am by under Weather

It’s the first day of Fall.  Many folks will want to think thoughts of leaves turning color, campfires, hot apple cider…take your pick.  However, we’ll have to hold off on those thoughts for a bit, and instead think about this coastal low that is forecast to develop over the next 24-36 hours. Let’s start with today.  The clouds increased overnight.  The clouds are increasing from the warm/moist air in the mid levels riding over the cooler/dry airmass at the surface.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There was some rain to our south, but as it hit the dry air it all disappeared. The dew points at the surface are in the 40s solid.  That is bone-dry.

Dew Points

Dew Points

The surface winds were out of the northeast.  So the higher dew points around Wilmington will not push back north today.  In fact…the breeze was pretty strong this morning.  We even had a few gusts to 25mph near the shore.  What’s happening is that along with the drier air pushing in from the north, there is also an area of high pressure to the north.

Today's Weather Map

Today’s Weather Map

Meanwhile a stationary front and area of low pressure is developing to our south.  Between the high and low there is a pressure gradient which leads to a funneling effect.  I’m hoping the dry weather at the surface undercuts the clouds and breaks them up a bit by later this morning.  If that happens then temperatures will rise to near 70.  If the clouds stay thick, then we’ll see highs in the mid-upper 60s.  Tonight the low will migrate north along the coast.  I’m not calling it a nor’easter because for most of its life it will be more of a trough (windshift line) as opposed to a bona-fide closed off low.  Also the system is expected to weaken as it begins to move out of area.  Typically a nor’easter revs up at that time.  Having said that… The low is expected to bring us some rain.  We may see a few spotty showers tomorrow between 8am and 2pm. Then the rain will pick up.  By the early evening the low and the rain will be right on top of our area.  Here is what Future Trak shows for 8pm on Wednesday:

Future Trak (8pm Wed)

Future Trak (8pm Wed)

Now the wind will be strong at that time.  Not just because the weak low will be close by, but also because the high to the north won’t move much.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The wind will run out of the northeast at 15-20mph with gusts up to 25mph near the shore.  There may even be a few gusts to 30mph at the beaches.  By early Thursday morning the low will move north and is actually forecast to weaken.  The rain will taper off.  It will be much more scattered on Thursday.  It may even dry up depending on which model you believe.  Then we’ll have some nice weather going into next weekend.

The rain is forecast to add up.  Our model shows about 0.75″ up to 2 inches along the coast:

Rainfall Totals Forecast

Rainfall Totals Forecast

I’m calling for 1-2″ along the coast with a half inch to an inch inland.  This could change, so stay tuned for updates.

Tides will run about 1 – 1.5 ft above normal.  This will create some nuisance to minor tidal flooding.  The problem will be if the higher water rise happens when the heavy rain comes in.  Especially Wednesday night.  We’ve had that happen a lot lately, and it has caused some problems.  The exact timing of the low moving through is apt to change.  Here is the latest tide forecast from the National Weather Service: Tide Forecast.

So we’ll see how this system plays out.  Hopefully, it’s not a warmup for the rest of the Fall.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler