We are on the way to warmer and drier conditions…temporarily.  The big area of low pressure is beginning to move northeast of the region. It brought us scattered rain showers late yesterday into last night. We picked up varying amounts of rain.

Estimated Rain Totals

Jan in Reedville and Doris on the Lower Eastern Shore had about a half inch of rain.  Scott in Yorktown had 0.6″.   Meanwhile Greg in Currituck, NC and Donna in southern Virginia Beach had only a trace of rain.  I’d say the bulk of the area had about a tenth to a quarter of an inch.  There was a lot more rain yesterday up towards New York and New Jersey.  Today the low will still deliver more rain up that way.  So there may be some flooding in those states.

Satellite/Radar

Even though the low is moving away from us, the upper level component will still be close enough to influence our weather today.  After starting with mixed cloudiness and patchy fog this morning, we will see partly cloudy skies.  This afternoon a few isolated showers will form around Hampton Roads.  The chance for rain is rather low here.  However, there will be some scattered showers forming closer to the system.   So that will be around the Northern Neck, Eastern Shore, and Middle Peninsula.  Tonight the low will move even farther away.  So we will clear out.  We may see some patchy fog late tonight into tomorrow morning with some of the lingering moisture.

Tomorrow we are looking Summery.  We’ll have fair skies and highs will be in the mid 80s.  Nice!  However, we we are still looking at scattered showers and storms on Saturday out ahead of the next cold front.  Highs will be in the low 80s.  The forecast has changed a bit for Sunday.  Now it looks like most of the rain will be early in the morning.  Also, I’ve taken out the chance for storms that day.  So we are trending in the right direction for Mother’s Day.  There will be a huge surge of colder air coming out of Canada early next week.  Sunday into Monday there may be some snow showers over parts of the Midwest.  Wow!  After living in Illinois for over 20 years, I can tell you that that is very rare for May.  I have seen cold air last into the Summer though.  It won’t snow here, but the cool down will be very dramatic.

Finally, the Washington Post had an interesting article recently about government spending on natural disasters.  It’s an eye opener: U.S. spending on natural disasters.  So far they haven’t had to pay much for tornado damage as we have seen a record low number of those due to the recent Midwest cooling.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Some folks have been frustrated by the sunshine lately.  I can see their point if they misinterpreted the forecast.  Each day recently has had a chance for rain, but the showers have been scattered.  There have even been some thunderstorms with the showers.  Here are the rain totals for the last 24 hours for the area as estimated by our radar Super Doppler 10:

Estimated Rain Totals

Weather watchers have had mostly light amounts, but a couple had a decent amount.  Brian in Smithfield had 0.6″ of rain.  Jan in Reedville had 0.4″.  Doris (Lower Eastern Shore) on the other hand only had a few sprinkles.  Donna in Blackwater also has had very light amounts.

The area of low pressure causing all of this is now spinning in central Virginia/North Carolina.

Satellite/Radar

You can see the curly-cue of clouds and rain over western Virginia.  There are flood warnings over in the Appalachians from all of the heavy rain. Some of that rain has also been due to orographic lift.  Luckily the rain has been able to soak into the ground here since the it has had plenty of breaks between rain.  As the low slowly slides northeast today it will weaken, but not before putting down some scattered showers and storms.

Future Trak (3pm)

Most of the rain has been light-to-moderate over the last couple of days.  That should be the case again today, but a few downpours are possible.  If we had more sunshine this morning, then I would say that strong storms are possible.  But it shouldn’t even get quite as warm as yesterday with the clouds already rolling in. So highs today will be in the low 70s.

Today’s Forecast

The system will start pushing away from us tonight.  The showers will end probably around midnight. Then tomorrow we’ll have partly cloudy skies.  Some of the models keep part of the upper level low back this way.  So they put in a stray shower in the forecast.  However, the chance for rain is very low.  I put it at 10%.

No rain is expected for Friday as an area of high pressure builds in temporarily.  Temperatures will warm up into the low 80s. So that will be nice.  It will also be in the 80s on Saturday, but showers and storms will form ahead of a cold front later that day.  This rain will continue into Sunday as a 2nd cold front moves through the region.  This will be just in time for Mothers Day unfortunately.  I can detail the timing and the rain chances for that over the next couple of days.  Behind that cold front temperatures will really drop.  I’m still calling for highs in the upper 50s on Monday with highs near 60 on Tuesday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

I’d say the weather has been at least a little zany lately.  We’ve had a weird weather pattern for several days.  Up through last weekend we had onshore winds as an area of high pressure sat over the northwest Atlantic and kept up the persistently cool winds.  Now this week we have a large upper level low that is drifting towards us from the central U.S.  Like yesterday it is pulling in moisture from the southeast.  This gave us scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Now let me back up for a second….Yesterday it looked like the onshore winds were going to keep things cool and cloudy,  but I think some of the warm air actually came up, rounded the bend, and moved in from the Atlantic.  So that is why we had some clearing.  When you get warmer air in place, then that is more conducive to scattered cumulus clouds as opposed to stratus.  So the sun popped out and heated us up even more. Instability brought the clouds back in late in the day.   Highs were in the 70s.  Today after starting with clouds and scattered showers, the sun will pop out (like yesterday) and heat us up once again.  Highs will be in the low/mid 70 with some light-moderate humidity.  I bet we’ll have some upper 70s inland.  Skies will go between partly to mostly cloudy skies through the afternoon.  We’ll also redevelop some scattered showers and storms later today.  I have the chance for rain at 30% for that time.

Tomorrow the low will move over us, but it will weaken.  We’ll have more clouds in the region with another round of scattered showers and storms.  The chance for rain tomorrow is 50%.  By Thursday the rain should start tapering off.  We could see the rain end by the afternoon as the system weakens and pushes out. For now we are looking at a dry and warm Friday.  Highs will be in the low 80s.

So far we have picked up about a quarter to a half inch of rain, but some areas have had up to 0.8″ like Barry (my weather watcher) in Gloucester.  We expect about another quarter to half inch of rain with the scattered showers today and tomorrow.

We’ll have some more showers and storms late Saturday into Sunday.  This will be out ahead of a powerful cold front.  Behind the front the 540 line is expected to drop down as far south as Virginia.  That is the thickness line that we use to forecast snow in the Winter.  No!  It won’t snow here as the air will modify under the Spring sun.  But we will see a big albeit brief cool down early next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

It will be tough to stay in a good mood over the next few days.  That’s due to some gloomy weather in the forecast, and also because there were lots of clouds this last weekend.  More than we forecast for Sunday.  So, try to keep your chin up and stay positive.  Lots of folks are starting to get cabin fever instead of Spring fever.   Today we started with some widely scattered showers and patchy thick fog.  The rain was more widespread in the western parts of the 2-state region.

Satellite/Radar

There is an area of low pressure over Tennessee and Alabama that brought rain and snow to parts of the Rockies and the Midwest just a few days ago.  It is a very slow moving system.  This is due to an upper level low getting cutoff and slowly drifting to the east.

Stuck Weather Pattern

The upper level low and surface low will steadily push northeast over the next 4 days.  It should finally push out by Thursday, but not before dumping lots of rain over the entire region.

Today, it’s not the low itself as much as it is the moisture streaming in overhead.  So this is going to produce scattered showers today.  The chance for rain is 30% this morning.  50% for the afternoon.  Tonight the moisture stream looks to sit right on top of us.  This will increase the rain chances quite a bit.

Future Trak (1am Tonight)

By tomorrow the surface low will be just a little closer to us.  However, the rain chances look to go up quite a bit as the upper level part of the system starts to push in.  So we expect scattered to widespread rain showers in the forecast for Tuesday.  Our model shows a band of moderate-heavy rain setting up over the area during the afternoon.

Future Trak (2pm) Tuesday

With the slow moving system we are still expecting rain on Wednesday and Thursday.  I have reduced rain chances as the low should be drifting away by late Wendsday into Thursday.  However, I may have to amend that as those days get closer.  Here’s my forecast for now:

Rain Forecast

Most of the rain should be spread out enough that I don’t expect widespread flooding.  However, some localized flooding (a couple of homes or even neighborhoods) will be possible.  All-in-all we expect a solid 1-3 inches of rain in the region.  Our model forecasts about 1-2 inches of rain through Wednesday morning.  NOAA (HPC) forecasts 1-3 inches of rain over the next 3 days.

Rainfall Forecast

For now we are expecting a break on Friday, but the models are hinting at throwing some rain in even for that day.  It looks like more rain (from another system) will move in next weekend.  As I said from the start of this blog.  It’s going to be tough to cheer up with this weather, so hang in there.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Questions, questions….Well, I have the answers…mostly.  He he he.  Let’s start with the short-term weather and then I’ll talk about those other topics.  Thanks to the persistent area of high pressure hanging off the Atlantic coast we’ll have some nice weather from this morning through the weekend.  Finally, today we started with sun and clouds.  No drizzle…no rain or fog.  Through the day we’ll continue to see passing clouds.  Rain will stay to our south as the area of high pressure sits over the Mid-Atlantic.  Notice that out to our west there is a mass of rain and….(SNOW) over the Midwest.  That is late even by their standards.

Satellite/Radar

That system will slowly trudge east and will make it here by Monday.  However, today we are looking good.  The northeast breeze will push more cool air into the region.  It will blow out of the northeast at 10-20mph with gusts to 25mph.  This will allow the cool air to even push inland a little bit.  So high temperatures today will be in the low 60s near the shore with upper 60s inland.  I don’t think anybody will make it to 70 unless the winds die down.

Today’s Forecast

We’ll have good weather for the LPGA in Williamsburg.  Highs will be in the upper 60s with partly sunny skies.  They’ll see a northeast breeze as well, but not as strong as near the coast.

LPGA Forecast

We’ll see good weather tonight for the Tides game.  Meteorologist Don Slater will be out there throwing out the first pitch.  Have fun if you go.

Norfolk Tides Forecast

We’ll also see good weather for all those folks waiting in line to see Iron Man 3 this evening.  Hmm I might be out there.  Tomorrow we are looking good, but there may be a few sprinkles in the morning as a small pocket of moisture will try to push in from the ocean.  We’re not expecting rain showers, but just a sprinkle here or there.  Highs will be in the low/mid 60s.  Sunday looks good with partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid-upper 60s.  The Midwest system that I mentioned above will move-in by next Monday.  This will initially give us a few scattered showers.  Then we’ll see widespread rain on Tuesday as the system sits right on top of us.  I think we’ll be on the back side of the upper low by Wednesday. So the rain should taper off.  This could change though as large upper level lows are notorious for lasting longer than the models forecast.  We could see 2-4 days straight of rain, and that could add up.

Now…as per the other title topics…I am a gamer, and I’ve been playing Skyrim for about a year now.  I just checked how many hours I put into the game, and it sits at 103 hours so far.  It’s an adventure game, but what’s pertinent here is the scenery.  There is weather in the game and it makes you feel like you are really in a different world.  Heavy snow, rain, and even aurora make for a very scenic world.  The sound is also very impressive with howling winds on top of the snowy mountains.  I’m playing a board now where I’m close to an arctic area, and I’ve been in a blizzard for days.

Finally, I saw this really neat article from Discover via ImageGeo.  It talks about how much water volume lies over our world compared to the total volume.  The most interesting part of the article is a graphic from the U.S. Geological Survey.

Total Water Versus The World

It really puts into perspective how fragile the oceans are and how little mass it takes up compared to the rest of the planet.

Hope you enjoyed this blog.  It was a bit different today.  Have a great weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Many folks have been sitting, waiting, and wishing for some sunshine.  They’ll get their wish today.  We have had a lot of wet weather lately, but luckily the rain has been light and spread out over time.  We have added up about an inch to an inch and a half over the last 4 days.  A little more in some cities:

Recent Rain Totals

Today high pressure will build in from the northeast.  This will help to break up the clouds.  It will also push the stronger winds to our south.

Today’s Weather

There were some showers over the southern Outer Banks this morning.  Those should also push south.  We will still have some cool air in the region.  At least for the 2nd of May.  As the sun pops out though, I think we’ll get a chance to warm up to near 70 inland.  It will be in the low 60s near the shore with mid 60s in the heart of the metro.

There will be some nice weather in Williamsburg for the LPGA.  Highs will be in the upper 60s with partly sunny skies and a light northeast wind.

LPGA Forecast

The weather isn’t expected to change much over the next several days.  High pressure will sit over the region and provide for fair skies and mild temps.  The models do show a little extra moisture pushing in from the Atlantic on Saturday.  That would amount to a little more clouds and some sprinkles, but it doesn’t look much like actual rain.  Stay tuned!  We will definitely have some rain early next week as an upper level system moves out of the Midwest.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Many folks are tired of seeing this:

Rain!

We’ve been stuck in a cool, cloudy, and wet weather pattern for a few days now.  Finally, we will change things up over the next 24 hours.  We started this morning with a lot of rain across the metro area.

Super Doppler 10 (7:30 am)

These scattered showers and drizzle will continue into the afternoon.  Like yesterday there will be a few peeks of sunshine during the afternoon as well.  Winds are stronger today out of the northeast.  They will be blowing at 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph near the shore.  This is due to that stuck weather pattern that I’ve been talking about.

Today’s Forecast

Tomorrow the high (H on the above map) is expected to sink to the southwest and sit closer to us.  There will also be some ridging overhead.  This will break up the weather pattern and yes….we’ll see some sunshine.

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The drier weather pattern will continue into the weekend.  We’ll have some comfortable weather with fair skies and highs mostly in the 60s.  A few 70s are possible, especially on Sunday.

On a national scale there will be a warm airmass over the central U.S., but some major cold weather will push out of Colorado and into the Plains states over the next couple of days.  Denver had highs near 80 just the other day, and today they are talking about 10-20 inches of snow.  Wow!

Finally, the American Meteorological Society sent me a link recently to a story that was posted by the Capital Weather Gang about some new tornado research.  It talks about how a varying 2nd downdraft in a thunderstorm may play a key role in tornado formation.  Here is the article: New Tornado Data

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

You may have noticed that the humidity has increased quite a bit in the last couple of days.  Many ladies heading out the door have been worried about bad hair days returning.  Of course as my coworker Cheryl Tan said:  “There are no bad hair days if you have enough hair spray”.  Yesterday we had widespread rainfall as predicted.  It became more showery in the afternoon, but it put down a solid 1.5″ across the region.  I had many weather watchers and instruments record readings close to that.  Today we had more fog and drizzle than rain.  The fog was very thick in many locations.  There were even 4 school delays in North Carolina.

Fog This Morning

A large area of higher moisture was pushing in off of the ocean.  This helped create the rain yesterday, and it led to the reduced visibilities this morning.  We’ll hold onto a lot of clouds today with some peeks of sunshine.

Satellite/Radar

I do expect pockets of drizzle, but I don’t see a high chance for actual rain showers.  (20-30%).  The winds will continue to bring in the cool marine air from the Atlantic.  This is coming off of the area of high pressure near Nova Scotia.  There is also a weak trough near the coast.  This is a line of lower pressure that is also a windshift line.  It is where the isobars kink on a map, as opposed to a close area of low pressure where the isobars connect.  Anyway, that will help to create a few of those showers in the region.

Today’s Forecast

Tomorrow the models show a deeper layer of moisture.   So the chance for rain goes up a bit.  (40-50%).  Our high temperatures will be in the mid-upper 60s for the next few days due to this cool weather pattern.  There will be some heat to our west today with highs in the 70s and 80s across parts of the Plains and Midwest states.

Forecast Temperatures

The heat to our west will be replaced by a large and unseasonably cold air mass. This will be accompanied by an upper level low and more wet weather.  As we go into the weekend that system will sit over the central U.S. for a few days. Meanwhile we will develop more high pressure along the coast.

Finally, whether or not you believe in Global Warming, you have to acknowledge the abnormally cold air that has resided over other parts of the country recently.  Here is an article from USA Today that sums up some of the recent cold: Cold Weather Pattern     I talked in a previous blog about how the persistent and abnormal cold/warm weather patterns over the last couple of years can be attributed to very long blocking patterns.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

It looked great out this morning.  It was picture perfect.  Take a look!

Nice Morning

But the photo doesn’t tell you the temperature.  We started in the upper 30s to low 40s in the region.  Donna (my weather watcher in southern Virginia Beach) said she had a little frost on her vehicle.  Not the way you want to start a morning in late April.  Temps were 15-25 degrees colder than yesterday morning.  Now…we do expect some nice weather out there this afternoon.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 60s with sunshine.  There will probably even be a few 70s inland today.  So dress in layers.

We have a huge area of clear skies and high pressure around the eastern 3rd of the United States.

Satellite/Radar

Tomorrow the high pressure will provide for more nice conditions.  Partly sunny and highs in the mid-upper 60s.  We will also see fine weather for the NASCAR race in Richmond.  Skies will be partly cloudy Saturday evening.  Temps will mostly be in the 50s.  The whole region will see good weather actually.

Future Trak Saturday Eve.

On Sunday morning we’ll be down at the Virginia Beach oceanfront for the March of Dimes walk.  The walk starts at 9am.  Skies will be mostly cloudy and temps will be near 50.  There will be a bit of a breeze, so you may need a light jacket to start the walk.  We’ll have some scattered showers try and make their way into the region by Sunday evening.  Rain will be around on Monday and early Tuesday.  The models have been differing on the rain chances and the timing from Sunday through Wednesday.  This tells me that there will be moisture around, but not a lot of lift.  So stay tuned for tweaks to next week’s forecast.  Have a good weekend.

Oh and pollen is an 8 out of 12 today.  It should stay steady over the weekend.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

It’s like a cruise ship leaving port after a brief stay.  You look back at the fun vacation that you had, but you know now that you are heading back to reality (home that is).  That is what the weather is like today.  Yesterday was fabulous.  Well…at least the afternoon was.  Highs were in the upper 70s.  Skies became mostly sunny.  Birds were chirping, and the mosquitoes still aren’t too bad.  Then a cold front moved through early this morning and changed everything. Before the front sunk in, the temperatures were in the 60s.  Then as the front passed through, it dropped temps to the mid-upper 50s.

Cold Front Pushes Through

There were a few showers along the front, but they really decreased in coverage compared to when they were in the Midwest yesterday.

Satellite/Radar

So since the coverage and forecast has decreased so much, I wouldn’t expect anything to really add up in the rain bucket today.  Some showers will try to form over the southern Outer Banks later today as the front hangs up near Hatteras.

Today’s Forecast

Tonight we’ll all clear out and chill out.  Low temperatures are aiming for the low-mid 40s with some 30s inland.  That’s a bit cold for late April.  I don’t think we’ll see any frost in the rural/inland areas, but I wouldn’t put the chance at zero either.  Tomorrow and Saturday look good with fair skies and highs in the 60s.

The models have been disagreeing on the rain chances from Sunday through Tuesday.  For now I’ve dried up Sunday with only a stray shower in the evening.  Then a few showers possible on Monday.  There’s no big weather systems around during that time.  So there may be subtle changes to the forecast.

We should see good weather for the NASCAR race in Richmond this weekend.  There may be a couple of sprinkles Saturday night, but they look to come in late at night.  That is if they come in at all.  Temps will be in the 50s Saturday evening.

Finally, the pollen looks like it has peaked.  I think it will generally be on the decline over the next 2 weeks.  There may be a day or two of higher pollen levels, but on average I think we’ll be coming out of the woods.  Small pun intended.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler