Jeremy Wheeler

Brief Warm Up, And Update On Edouard.

September 16th, 2014 at 8:42 am by under Weather

We are running a little warmer today, but it’s not a heat wave.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80.  We’ve seen a lot of clouds this morning with a few breaks to our west.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ve seen a few spotty showers in the region too, but they have been mostly north and south of Hampton Roads.  A cold front is slowly pushing in from the northwest.  It will be here later this afternoon.  We’ll see a few showers along the front, but they should be spotty and light.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 with a southwest breeze. Winds will turn out of the north as the front passes.  Temps should hold in the upper 70s for a while as the front sinks south.  Behind the front tomorrow we’ll be in the mid 70s with lots of clouds.  So it’s not a huge difference in temperatures, but we’ll see a small rise today and a dip tomorrow.  The good news is that high temps will stay in the 70s through the weekend.

Hurricane Edouard is an impressive hurricane in the central Atlantic.

Hurricane Edouard

Hurricane Edouard

It has a fairly large and distinct eye on satellite.  The sustained winds were up to 110mph.  This put it on the cusp between a category 2 and a category 3 hurricane.  It is forecast to be a cat 3 by later today.  Then it will be a major hurricane.

11 AM Update: Hurricane Edouard has become the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season. It is currently a category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115mph.

Luckily it will stay east of Bermuda.  They will see some waves up to 12 feet today.  Here on the U.S. east coast we’ll see some waves running about 3-5 ft with a few 6 footers possible.  This will be for Wednesday into Thursday.

Wave Forecast

Wave Forecast

The storm will move into the cooler north Atlantic waters and will become extratropical by early next week.

In the west tropical storm Odile continues to move north of the Baja Peninsula.

Odile On Satellite

Odile On Satellite

It is beginning to fall apart, but it will bring some more heavy rain to the region and to southern Arizona.  Unfortunately, it looks like most of the rain will miss southern California.  The wind has already caused extensive damage over parts of Mexico.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tropics, Coolness, And You Dirty High!

September 15th, 2014 at 9:00 am by under Weather

While there is some quiet weather locally, things are busy in the tropics.  Last night Edouard became a hurricane, and it is now forecast to become the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season.  This morning it was over 700 miles southeast of Bermuda and was heading northwest.

Hurricane Edouard

Hurricane Edouard

The hurricane will move northward by tomorrow and then northeast.  This track will keep it away from Bermuda.  At least the center.  However, they may still see a little rain and some higher waves from the storm.  The waves will travel (though weaken) all the way to the east coast.  By Wednesday/Thursday the waves will try to rise up to about 3-5 feet (perhaps higher).  There’s not as many swimmers out there right now, but the rip current threat will likely increase.
The storm will eventually become extratropical over the northeast Atlantic by the weekend.

Normally I don’t talk about hurricanes in the Pacific ocean. However, this one is noteworthy.  Hurricane Odile (Oh-Deal) has hit the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula in Mexico.  It moved ashore near Cabo San Lucas last night.

Pacific Hurricane

Pacific Hurricane

Odile was a major hurricane upon landfall.  It had 115mph.  This tied hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to hit that area since satellites began.  The winds have come down a bit, but they are still very strong.  This will create a lot of rain and damaging winds over the region.  The silver lining is that it will eventually bring some rain to the southwestern U.S. Any rain in southern California would be a blessing.  Stay tuned for updates.

Again, our local weather is quiet.  We have a weak or “dirty” high in the region.  This has allowed for some sunshine north with lots of clouds around the rest of the region.

Dirty High Nearby

Dirty High Nearby

Today we’ll go back and forth between partly and mostly cloudy. Highs will be in the mid 70s.  It will be pretty nice out.  Tomorrow a weak disturbance will move into the region.  This will bring a few showers in the morning, and then a few more in the afternoon.  They should be light and scattered.  Winds will be out of the southwest tomorrow.  So highs will rise to the upper 70s to near 80.  We’ll resume with the cool temperatures from Wednesday into the weekend.  There may be a few showers on Thursday, but overall the extended forecast looks quiet.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Stalling Front And Edouard

September 12th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

A cold front is struggling to move south this morning. So far (as of this writing) it has only made it to the Peninsula.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were moving from the Middle Peninsula over to the Eastern Shore.  Some of these were real downpours.

Super Doppler 10

Super Doppler 10

There was also an isolated downpour between Wanchese and Rodanthe N.C.  Some of these showers will slowly sink south along with the cold front through the afternoon.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Temperatures in the Midwest (north of the front) are in the 30s, 40s, and 50s.  Around here today temperatures will stay in the 70s with just a few 80s south.  Winds are turning out of the north this morning, and they will run at about 10-15mph.   By this evening the front will settle into northeast North Carolina.  This will decrease the rain chances for Friday night football games.  It will be cool and cloudy with just a sprinkle or two.  Tomorrow the front will stay over northeast North Carolina.  A few showers may try to push north of the front.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80.  Some rain will move back north as we get later in the day.  This will be aided by a weak mid-level disturbance.  So by the late afternoon/early evening we’ll see some scattered showers in the region.  This could impact some of the local college football games.  The rain chances will increase by tomorrow evening.  According to the models, rain is mostly likely Saturday night into early Sunday.  A few showers are then again possible for the rest of Sunday.  It doesn’t look like much right now, but stay tuned for updates.  Especially with that tricky front.  Let’s see that makes it stalled-out front # 59 of the year I think. (I have no idea if we’ve really had 59 stalled out fronts.  It was just for effect).  It will be cooler on Sunday as the front pushes south once again.

Monday looks to dry out, but then some more scattered showers are expected on Tuesday.

In the Atlantic we have two areas that I am tracking.  The first one is a namedl system. That is tropical storm Edouard.  It is in the eastern Atlantic ocean and is moving west/northwest.

Track Of Edouard

Track Of Edouard

The storm will move northwest for a while as a tropical storm.  By Tuesday it is likely to become a hurricane.  It should begin to move north at that point.  It will stay out to sea, and is likely to stay east of Bermuda.  It may bring us some waves by late next week, but we’ll see.  There is also a weak disturbance near Florida.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

That feature is drifting west.  It may survive moving over Florida with some heavy rain.  If it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, then it could develop into a tropical system.  It’s not likely to affect us, but could become a problem for the Gulf Coast. Stay tuned!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Some Temporary Heat

September 11th, 2014 at 8:21 am by under Weather

The day started off on a good note.  We had a gorgeous morning with a little deck of clouds moving through, and the sun peaking out in between.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Conditions looked right for some fog to form, but the clouds swooped in and stopped that from happening.  The clouds act like a blanket and can stop the temperatures from dropping to the dew p0int.  Luckily the clouds are temporary, and we’ll see lots of sunshine today.  However, that same sunshine will help to heat things up this afternoon.  Highs will rise to near 90.  The average high is 81 degrees for this time of year.  Winds will be southwest around the high that sits to our southeast.

 

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

The humidity will be high as well, but the breeze should help.  By tonight a strong cold front will move into the region.  It will form a line of showers and storms that will swipe through between 9pm and 2am (more specific time will depend on location).  We may see a few strong storms with some heavy rain and gusty winds.  However, this system will be on the move.  So it won’t be like the last system.  We are looking at a quarter to a half an inch of rain.  Perhaps a little more in a few storms.

Tomorrow we are looking at cooler weather.  Highs will be in the upper 70s.  A few showers may linger during the morning, but it doesn’t look like there will be much in the afternoon (isolated shower).  Winds will turn out of the north.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The weekend forecast has become very muddy.  Not all in terms of rainfall, but in clarity.  How about that for a pun?  Ahem…Anyway, the cold front is now expected to stall out just south of the region.  Some models (like the NAM and European) bring rain into the region each day.  The GFS model keeps the front a little farther south, and doesn’t have as much rain.  So until the models come into better agreement, I’ve just put in a chance for some scattered showers each day.  Hopefully, the models will close in on a more definite solution by later today. I will have an update tomorrow on that.

Finally there is a cluster of storms over in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that is likely to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next few days.  It is moving west, but it is far away.  The satellite is fairly impressive, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes an organized system later today.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Steady Weather Improvement And Golf & Climate

September 10th, 2014 at 8:36 am by under Weather

The weather has been steadily improving in the region, but it isn’t too rosy just yet.  When I came into work I ran into a bunch of drizzle and light showers.  This continued on until about 7am.  The area of low pressure that caused the bad weather has moved offshore, but a moist marine layer has been pushing in from the northeast.  As the low continues to push away, high pressure will build in from the northwest.

Today's Forecast Map

Today’s Forecast Map

We’ll dry things out and get more sunshine as we go into the midday and the afternoon.  Highs will be in the low 80s with a few upper 70s near the shore.  The wind is out of the north/northeast.  It won’t be as strong as the past 24 hours.  It was pretty breezy yesterday afternoon as the low began to depart.  With the recent winds and full moon there has been some minor tidal flooding.  This was on top of (or really underneath) the flooding from the recent rain.  The tide at Sewell’s Point made it up to 4.6′/4.7′ over the last 2 tide cycles.  This morning the tide will rise to about 4.4′.  That is just below the threshold for minor tidal flooding.  So it is more in the nuisance category.  After that the tide will drop further.

Tide Forecast (Sewell's Pt.)

Tide Forecast (Sewell’s Pt.)

By tomorrow high pressure will shift to the southeast.  This will allow for more southerly winds.  It will stay close enough to provide for some nice weather.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The southerly winds will boost the temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s.  A cold front will then move into the region by tomorrow night.  This will create a return of some scattered showers and storms.  Unlike the last system, this next one will move through the region.  So no flooding is expected.  However, it is forecast to stall out to our south.  So showers will linger on Saturday.  At least we’ll be cool again.  Highs in the 70s Friday through Sunday.

I found this article about how the U.S. Golf Association has been trying to find a more efficient lawn.  One that can especially handle a warmer climate.  Here is the article: Golf courses and climate. There is a lot of input into golf courses across the country.  So any increase in efficiency/heat tolerance will have a big impact.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Flooding Continues

September 9th, 2014 at 8:34 am by under Weather

Wow! Some of the heaviest rain that I’ve seen in years has recently fallen in the region.  It has been pretty wild.  This is one example of the flooding that was out there:

Portsmouth Flooding

Portsmouth Flooding

This photo was sent in from Sam Butler in Portsmouth.  We had a lot of flooding from yesterday.  There was really bad flooding in many parts of Portsmouth.  A group of kids had to be boated out of a daycare in the Churchland area.  That really hits home because my own kids used to go there.  There were a couple of other cities that saw similar flooding.  Last night the rain did not stop, but it did let up.  However, it re-intensified this morning.
This was the radar earlier this morning.

Heavy Rain This Morning

Heavy Rain This Morning

Note the heavy downpours over Newport News, Smithfield, and Norfolk.  It was heavy in Portsmouth, but then that moved east.  Some of the areas that had flooding yesterday probably didn’t go down much.  So the rain all added up.  Up to the time of this writing many cities saw 4-6 inches.  Chesapeake had over 7 inches.  That is within 24 hours and in some cases most of it fell in 3 hours.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

I saw 2 reports of over 10″.  One was a National Weather Service employee near Smithfield.  He/She had 12.21″.  The other report was a viewer in Virginia Beach.  Hard to believe some of these totals.

On top of the rain that is falling, the tide is also expected to rise.  Now the tidal flooding should only be about a foot to a foot and a half above normal.  That’s not bad, and is considered nuisance tidal flooding.  However, with the tide coming up that will stop the drains from being effective.  So we could see some more street flooding over some cities that are prone to tidal flooding.  Especially Norfolk, Portsmouth, and parts of the Peninsula.  The main cause for the rain is a weak area of low pressure that is tracking northeast along a stationary front.

Weak Low Along A Front

Weak Low Along A Front

Deep moisture wrapped around this low as it came up from the south.  The low is slowly edging out to sea.  As it pushes away the rain will become more scattered.  This is what Future Trak shows for this afternoon at 3pm.

Future Trak 3pm

Future Trak 3pm

The rain will keep decreasing through tonight.  Tomorrow the low will keep edging away offshore.  However, some models have it throwing some spotty showers back to the west.  So we could see some spotty/light showers.  Overall though we’ll dry out Wednesday and Thursday.  Highs will be in the 80s.  Then a cold front will move through the region on Friday.  This will produce some more scattered showers and storms.  Although it shouldn’t be nearly as heavy as the last 24 hours.  Stay tuned for updates, and drive safe today.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Heavy Rain Moving Into The Region

September 8th, 2014 at 9:04 am by under Weather

The sentiment from many of my weather watchers recently is that we all need some rain in the region with only a few exceptions.  Some of them haven’t needed any for the entire Summer as they have had ample, I.E. Greg in Currituck.  Just over the past 2 weeks he has changed his tune.  Well, now the rain is moving in.   Last night there wasn’t much out there, but it really picked up between 5 and 8 am.  This caused many problems with traffic during the morning commute.  Here was the view from Super Doppler 10 this morning:

Super Doppler 10

Super Doppler 10

Over the weekend a cold front moved through the region. This caused a few scattered showers, but it also push the heat to our south.  At least on Sunday.  Now the front is sitting to our south.  A weak area of low pressure is forming and pushing north into the front.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is some deep/rich moisture south of this boundary.  It is all slowly going to push north through the day.  So we have a high chance for rain.  This is NOT like rain events during the past couple of months.  No chance for a few pop up showers and storms.  No hit-or-miss showers and storms.  No!  This is the real deal.  Widespread rain for everybody, and a few areas of heavy rain to boot.  Here is what Future Trak looks like at 3pm this afternoon:

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

There will be ponding on the roads and probably some street flooding as well.  Due to the clouds and rain, the temperatures will stay in the 70s today.  The rain will continue into tonight, but it should break up a little bit.  Then the rain will continue into tomorrow.  At least the models are backing off the rain a little bit for Tuesday.  So as the low slowly pushes away, then we’ll see scattered showers on the back side.  Today the rain chances are 80–90%.  Tomorrow it should be more in the way of 50-60%.  It will taper off to just a few showers late in the day.  Highs will again be in the 70s.  We’ll dry out on Wednesday and Thursday.  Highs will be in the 80s.

For rain totals we are looking at a solid 2-4″ of rain.  There may even be a few spots of 5″ or more.  That will likely lead to some localized flooding.

Rainfall Totals Forecast

Rainfall Totals Forecast

Stay tuned for updates to this.

If we don’t get flooding from the rain, then we may see some from the wind.  Winds will be persistent from the northeast over the next couple of days.  It will generally run at 5-15mph with higher gusts near the shore.  This and the full moon will lead to some nuisance-type tidal flooding.  It will come up about 1-1.5ft above normal.  So no big problems are expected, but it will rise in those typical areas that see the higher tide-waters.

Next weekend we’ll see some more changes.  There will be scattered showers and storms along a big cold front on Friday.  That front will cool us down next weekend.  We’ll see high in the low/mid 70s on Saturday and Sunday.  Lows will probably drop to the 50s and low 60s.  It will feel great for the Fall-lovers.  That same cold air may bring some snow to a few cities in the northern part of the Midwest.  Way too early to drop down here though.

Before I go.  There is one disturbance over in the eastern Atlantic that may develop into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days.  It is coming out of the Cape Verde area, and is moving west.  Stay tuned for updates, but it is way out there at this time.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Heavy Rain Yesterday. Cool Down This Weekend.

September 5th, 2014 at 8:35 am by under Weather

It was really coming down over parts of Virginia Beach yesterday.  We had several reports of street flooding in the region.  This is how it looked to Tracey Minnich near the Virginia Beach courthouse:

Street Flooding

Street Flooding

The rain came down heavy there, but it wasn’t as heavy in other areas.  Here are the 24 hour rain totals for the region.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

Notice that the airport in Newport News had 0.0″.  I did have a weather watcher in Yorktown(Scott) say that he only had 0.1″.  So that could be correct.  Don Roberts said he did get some rain at this house on the Peninsula, but he didn’t give any amounts.  Now there was definitely a lot of humidity in the region.  However, there was also a stationary front nearby.  This helped to create the showers and storms.  Today that front has fallen apart.  So while we are calling for some scattered showers and storms today, there should be less coverage than yesterday.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Temperatures will heat up to near 90, but it will feel like the low/mid 90s with the heat index.   Winds will be out of the south/southwest at 5-10mph.

Tomorrow a cold front will approach the region.  It won’t make it into Hampton Roads until tomorrow evening.  So we’ll heat up again out ahead of it.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

We’ll rise up to the low 90s, and it will be humid again with dew points in the low-mid 70s.  Folks that have been hoping for a cool-down will get their wish on Sunday.  The front will move through Saturday night into Sunday.  This will create a good chance for showers and storms.  I’ll wait to forecast rain amounts though as the computer models tend to lower the coverage as the rain gets closer to the area.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80.  The front will get hung up just to our south on Monday.  So we’ll hold onto the coolness with more rain in the forecast.  Through next week we will heat up again.  Highs will rise to the upper 80s by Thursday.  By next weekend, the models are showing a BIG cool down.  How cool?  Highs in the low 70s maybe.  Possible lows in the 50s.  Maybe….maybe some lows in the 40s inland, but that may be a stretch.  A possible frost over parts of the Midwest.  It’s still early though. So stay tuned.

The tropics are pretty quiet for now.  Well, the Atlantic anyway.  Have a good weekend.  Hampton Bay Days is happening.  The NASCAR race in Richmond should be happening, but that could be pretty stormy.  Also, I’ll be down at Mount Trashmore for the “Out Of The Darkness” walk for suicide prevention on Saturday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Waiting For A Cool Down, & Arctic Sea Ice

September 4th, 2014 at 8:49 am by under Weather

Last night I woke up in the middle of the night to some loud booms.  It wasn’t my neighbors playing drums.  Rather it was some lovely (sarcastic) scattered thunderstorms.  My yard was happy to get some rain, but my brain is pretty sleep-deprived at the moment.  So if this blog starts to sound like mush, then you’ll know why.  The rain was very heavy over parts of northeast North Carolina into Chesapeake and Virginia Beach.

Radar Last Night

Radar Last Night

My weather watcher Greg in Currituck, NC had 0.3″ last night.  Donna in Blackwater (southern Virginia Beach) had a whopping inch and a half.  Mike in Whaleyville missed the rain.  There was nothing from the Peninsula northward.  The wide area of showers moved northeast.  A few showers lingered behind it.  A stationary front was the main focus for the rain.  It’s trying to lift north a bit as a warm front. The front is expected to fall apart later today.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is a weak area of high pressure to our north.  Winds will be southerly at 5-10mph.  High temps will get into the upper 80s to low 90s.  We’ll be hot and humid today through Saturday.  Late Saturday into Sunday a stronger cold front will move into the region.  This will increase the rain chances and will also drop the temperatures.  So highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday into the middle of next week.  The average high temperature is in the low 80s for this time of year.

I found two interesting stories on the web this morning.  The first story is kind of an update as well as an explainer about sea ice.  It talks about how recently some sources have mistaken some short-term trends for a longer term forecast.  It talks about how there is a definite downward trend in Arctic sea ice, and it also talks about some of the local geography over the Arctic.  Here is the article: Arctic Sea Ice Problem.

I am a believer in humans having a contribution to Global Warming, but I also like to point out the opposing view.  I also believe that natural cycles play a role in recent warming.  So I try to show both sides of the argument.  Therefore I also found this other article that talks about how the United States has had twice as many record lows so far in 2014 compared to the record highs.  Here is that article: Record Lows VS. Highs

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Not As Hot Today

September 3rd, 2014 at 8:12 am by under Weather

Yesterday was sweltering.  We even broke a record.  The afternoon temperature made it up to 99 degrees at Norfolk International Airport.  This broke the old record of 97 degrees set back in 1993.  I saw Williamsburg have even made it up to 102.  Wow!  The heat index was well over 100 in many cities.  I’ll admit, I was out working in the yard yesterday morning, and it didn’t feel too bad in the shade.  The breeze really helped.  But as soon as that sun came around  during the early afternoon…Whoa!

Today a cold front is moving through the region.  It is expected to kick off a few showers and storms, but the chance for rain is only about 30%.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

The front will keep the high temps in the upper 80s to near 90 this afternoon.  However, the humidity probably won’t drop all that much.  So it won’t feel too much cooler, but it will be better.  Tomorrow the front should fall apart.  Winds will turn back out of the south.  We’ll heat up to the upper 80s to low 90s.  I’m calling for just a few isolated showers and storms in the afternoon.  We’ll see more of the same temperatures for Friday and Saturday with some pretty quiet weather.  Then a stronger cold front will move through Saturday night into Sunday.  This will bring us our first decent chance for rain on Sunday.  It will also drop the temps.   Low 80s on Sunday.  Upper 70s to low 80s by next Monday.

In the tropics we have Dolly falling apart over Mexico.  The winds are weakening, but the rain is still pretty potent.

Dolly Over Mexico

Dolly Over Mexico

The heavy rain is forecast to create dangerous mudslides in the region.  I hope residents down there will fare the storm ok.  Too bad that heavy rain can’t push up into California.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler