Jeremy Wheeler

Cold Front On Approach!

May 12th, 2015 at 8:37 am by under Weather

Thank you Jen Lewis!  I couldn’t think of a good name for this weather blog this morning.  While she was doing traffic she said the words “…on approach”.  Voila!  There’s the title for the blog.  Thanks Jen.  So let’s talk about what’s happening out there.  Yesterday tropical depression Ana moved through the region.  It caused heavy rain at times.  Winds weren’t too bad for most, but they briefly gusted over 35mph down towards the Outer Banks.  The region had varying rainfall amounts.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

My weather watcher,Greg in Currituck NC, had 1″ of rain.  Pam in Gloucester had 1.5″.  Lee near Elizabeth City had about 1.3″ of rain.  Jan in Reedville had 0.3″.  I am surprised by the amount of rain in Norfolk.  Or lack of it…. The remnants of Ana moved out, but a few of her leftovers hung around.  A little windshift line (perhaps in the upper levels) created some scattered showers this morning.  They were actually very heavy with some thunderstorms, but they only lasted about 2 hours.

Storms This Morning

Storms This Morning

Now those storms have ended.  We’ll see quiet weather through midday.  Weak high pressure will build in, but briefly.  A cold front is setting up to our west (hence the blog title).

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll be ahead of the front most of the day.  Winds will be southwest at 10-20mph. This will allow the temperatures to spike to near 90 degrees.  The record in Norfolk is 92 set back in 1881.  That is a long-standing record.  It will be very hot and humid. However, the breeze will help offset (some) of the mugginess.  Dew points are in the upper 60s.

Dew Point temperatures

Dew Point temperatures

Unfortunately, storms don’t get cooled off by the breeze. They can use the heat and humidity as fuel.  So as we get into the late afternoon/early evening, those storms will be able to use the instability to get a little rowdy.  As of this writing, there is a marginal risk for severe weather.  That is the lowest tier (besides general thunderstorms) of the severe risk spectrum.  It basically calls for isolated severe weather.  The main threat will be strong gusty winds and possibly some hail.  Keep in mind that we may get upgraded later today (slight?).   The storms will roll through pretty quickly.  So I don’t anticipate flooding.  However, a brief heavy downpour is possible.  The chance for storms looks highest between 5pm and 8pm.

Future Trak (6:30pm)

Future Trak (6:30pm)

The storms should head out by 9-10pm.  Then it will be smooth sailing for several days.  Highs will be in the 70s Wednesday into the weekend.  We’ll be dry Wednesday through Saturday.  Rain looks to return by Sunday.  I can’t wait for the nice weather.  Time for yard work.  Oh and allergies aren’t too bad today.  They are moderate 5 out of 10.  They should be low-moderate from here on out.  Yeah!!!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Ana And The Heavy Rain

May 11th, 2015 at 8:28 am by under Weather

Ana is still surviving as a weak area of low pressure.  It was still classified as a tropical depression this morning, but it is morphing into a broader extratropical low.  However the system is surrounded by plenty of tropical moisture, and that has led to heavy downpours.  Mostly over the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The center was located near Rocky Mount, NC and was moving slowly to the east/northeast.  This will move through Hampton Roads through the day.  It will create on-and-off rain showers, and they will be heavy at times.  Once we get some heating in here, say by the afternoon, then the thunderstorms will increase. The storms don’t look to be severe, but localized flooding will be possible.  Here is what Future Trak shows for this afternoon:

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

Notice the small patches of yellow, orange, and red.  That indicates convection (rapidly rising air).  There won’t be a lot of upper level wind support, but there will be some instability.  Now we’ll already have some broad spin from the low itself.  That could get focused to a small area where the thunderstorms form.  Therefore, we could get a quick-lived (and isolated) tornado in the region as the storms roll through.  The threat is low, but not zero.  It would be similar in nature to a brief water spout if it forms at all.  By the evening the low will start moving out.  The rain chances will taper off.  A lot of the area will see a half inch up to an inch of rain.  However, 1-2″ is possible if you get caught under one of the downpours for a while.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

Luckily the wind won’t be much of an issue.  The winds will be breezy along the shore with some gusts to 25mph down towards the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach.  Overall, we are only looking at southeast winds at 10-15mph with a few higher gusts.

Wind Forecast (mph)

Wind Forecast (mph)

Tides won’t be an issue, but there are still some high waves along the shore.

The system will move out by tonight, but we are not out of the woods yet.  We’ll be ahead of a cold front for most of the day Tuesday.  With a southwest wind, the thermometers will start to sweat (not literally).  High temps will rise to the upper 80s.  We may even see a few 90s.  It will still be fairly humid too.  So the when the front comes through in the evening, then we could see some strong/severe thunderstorms.

Future Trak (5pm Tue.)

Future Trak (5pm Tue.)

The main threat from tomorrow would be some strong gusty winds.  It should move through pretty quickly, so there is less potential for flooding.  Then it will be easy going.  We’ll see some nice cooler/drier air Wednesday through Friday. Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s and 60s.  By next weekend we could see some more scattered showers, but we’ll see.  There’s no big weather system,  it’s still a ways out, and there will be some upper level ridging.  So it’s in no way a done deal.

In national news.. The weather has been pretty wild in other locations.  There has been snow over parts of the Rockies, tornadoes in the Plains states, and of course our local tropical system.  Here’s a link with more info: Wild U.S. weather.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Subtropical Storm Ana And Your Weekend.

May 8th, 2015 at 9:08 am by under Weather

What is Ana doing?  Will it rain this weekend?  Will it rain on Mother’s Day?  How much hairspray do I use?  These are all questions that folks want to know.  The hairspray question is easy….A pretty good amount.  The other questions will take a little longer to explain.

Subtropical storm Ana formed last night off the coast of South Carolina.  This morning the broad center was located about 160 miles south/southeast of Myrtle Beach, SC.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Looking at the latest satellite/radar, this system is not looking very impressive.  It actually lost a lot of the bigger thunderstorms around its broad center.  This system is wrapping in some dry air.  Since it is subtropical this may be a significant factor in the intensity forecast.  It is near the Gulf Stream.  So that is one source of fuel for the system, but that is a narrow corridor of warmer waters.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.cf.gif

Sea Surface Temps (NOAA)

The system is forecast to slowly drift north/northwest.  Officially, the storm is expected to strengthen slightly over the next 24 hours.  Then it is forecast to move towards the shore.  If you look at the above map, you’ll notice that there is much cooler water near the coast.  This should weaken the system dramatically if it doesn’t weaken already before moving towards the shore.  The European model and the National hurricane center are a little slower in bringing it ashore.  They have it more towards Sunday.

Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast

Meanwhile the GFS and our Future Trak model have it moving inland more between late Saturday into Sunday:

Future Trak (Saturday)

Future Trak (Saturday)

The sooner it moves ashore, the sooner it should weaken further.  All forecasts still have the system moving inland and then to the northeast after that point.  I think the system will become a remnant low or even an open wave as it moves into our region by Monday.  This means that the winds will be down to nothing, but the rain chances will go up.  The moisture around the center would give us that higher chance for rain.  Then the system will kick out by Tuesday.  However, we’ll still see a chance for rain ahead of a cold front which will arrive on Wednesday.

So with all of that said. Let me spell out the expected impacts:

Hampton Roads/southeast Virginia:

Rain: We’ll see (isolated) showers in the region.  Pretty low chances (20-30%).  There may be some scattered showers for a brief period, but overall the weekend looks good.  Rain will probably increase on Monday.

Wind: Hardly anything.  The low will be far from us, and by the time it makes it up here the system will either fall apart or will be very weak.

Waves/rip currents: There will be a higher threat for rip currents and the waves will be above 3ft.

Tides: Tides won’t be a problem.  The winds and moon phase just won’t be conducive to higher than normal tides.

Northeast North Carolina/Outer Banks:

Rain: Isolated to scattered showers.  A stray thunderstorm possible.  (About a 30-40% chance for showers).  Also, a little higher chance at seeing a little heavy rain.  Highest chances for rain south, but NOT a washout for the weekend.  Higher chance for rain on Monday.

Wind: Light breezes this weekend. Mostly near the shore.  Hatteras/Rodanthe could see some gusts above 25mph as they are closer to the system.

Waves/rip currents: This could be a big problem along the southern Outer Banks.  The waves will be about 5-7 feet.  The rip currents threat is high.  So folks may not be able to get in the waters along the Southern Outer Banks.  Be sure to swim near a life guard, and be extra vigilant.  Have fun surfers.  Should be a nice southeast swell for a while.

Tides: Not a problem here either.  One exception… If the tide increases just a bit more than normal, then the high waves may be able to cause some beach erosion.  That would be a real problem where they are repairing highway 12.  Other than that, folks should be fine.

Tornadoes: Huh?  Well…if the area of low pressure remains intact as it moves through (though weak), then there may be enough rotation to spin up a quick/weak tornado or water spout. This would be on Monday.  The Storm Prediction Center even has a marginal risk for tornadoes tomorrow towards Hatteras.  So keep an eye to the sky down that way.

Now the forecast may change a bit.  The strength and timing of Ana may change.  But the overall forecast for our area has a good consensus by the models.  It should be a pretty good weekend including Mother’s Day.

Stay tuned for updates and have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

 

 


Subtropical Storm Ana

May 8th, 2015 at 6:39 am by under Uncategorized

Last night the National Hurricane Center classified Ana as a subtropical storm.  I’ve talked in depth about what that means over the past couple of days, but here’s a link with more info: Subtropical.   Ana is located about 160 miles SSE of Myrtle Beach, SC.  It is only drifting NNW at 1mph.  The sustained winds were at 45mph.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Notice that the storms are not clustered around the center.  They are fairly spread out.  The system is feeding off of the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream.  As the system slowly moves north/northwest, it will move over cooler waters.  This should allow the system to weaken.  Despite having a name, the thinking has not changed in the forecast.  It is still expected to drift northward, move inland, and weaken dramatically.  Then it is forecast to move northeast as a remnant area of low pressure or even just a weak wave of low pressure.  However, the moisture with the system will move through as well.  So there will be an increased chance for rain Sunday night into Monday.

Track Of Ana

Track Of Ana

So our weekend will not be a washout.  Instead we’ll see isolated showers from time to time.   (Isolated) means a low chance for rain, but not zero.  I’ll have another blog out later this morning with more details on the impacts in the region.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Calm Before The Storm???

May 7th, 2015 at 8:39 am by under Weather

It’s a commonality that is often used.  “The calm before the storm”.  I’ve seen it many times in many different places. But this doesn’t really look like the case for Hampton Roads this time.  Not really.  I am still tracking an area of low pressure to our south.  It is a couple hundred miles south of Wilmington N.C.  It is a broad area of low pressure right now, but there are some clusters of storms near the center.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is a high chance for this to develop into a classified system (if it hasn’t already) in the next 1-3 days.  The hurricane hunters are out investigating the system this morning.  Then the National Hurricane Center will put out an update.  I still think it would be subtropical vs tropical.  More info on that in my last weather blog from yesterday. The system is still forecast to drift north over the next 24 hours and strengthen a bit.  The models are in very good agreement on this.  Then the models differ a little.  The GFS and our Future Trak model basically take it inland on Saturday.  They weaken it considerably shortly after that point.

Future Trak (Sat 7pm)

Future Trak (Sat 7pm)

The European and NAM models take it to the coast, but have it hugging the coast (less inland) Saturday into Sunday.  They do still weaken the system, but not as fast.  Then, all the models take it notheastward up into our area.  KEEP in mind that they all weaken the system by that point though.  To illustrate that point I’ve shown a much smaller (L) on the Future Trak forecast.  It has the remnants of the system over us by Monday:

Future Trak (Monday)

Future Trak (Monday)

This would give us a better chance for rain, but there wouldn’t be much wind by that point.   More on that in a moment.

As far as rain chances for our region… I’m expecting the bulk of the rain to stay to our south.  However, from time-to-time we’ll see isolated showers move up from the south/southeast.  They will mostly be isolated, but a couple of them may drop a quick/heavy shower.  This will probably last from Friday through Sunday.  Course those rain chances will hinge off of what happens to the low.  So stay tuned for updates.  Especially if you have outdoor plans for Mother’s Day.

I don’t expect the winds to really impact our region.  The low probably won’t be too strong to begin with.  Perhaps a weak sub-tropical storm at sea.  Then when it moves inland it will weaken further.  So by the time it makes it up into our region, the wind should be down to pretty much a light breeze.  However, I do think that the breeze will be stronger over the southern Outer Banks.  Perhaps a few gusts to 25mph or higher there.  Due to the lack of strong winds over our region, I also don’t expect the tide to be a problem.  The moon is also not in-phase to promote a higher tide.

The waves will be a different story.  Swells from the storm will travel northward and will wrap around Cape Hatteras.

Wave Forecast

Wave Forecast

At this point it looks like the waves near Hatteras will rise to over 7ft.  The rest of the Outer Banks could see some 4-6 ft waves.  Virginia Beach will likely see 3-4 ft waves.  That is today into tomorrow.  By Saturday the waves will go down.  Be careful though.  The threat for rip currents will be elevated along all our beaches.  It is a high risk for many beaches.  ESPECIALLY the southern Outer Banks.  Rip currents are more prominent during low tide.  So keep that in mind, and always swim near a life guard.

We’ll finally dry things out by Tuesday.  In fact….some relatively dry and chilly air will try to drop in by the middle of next week.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a day or two with highs in the 60s.  We’ll see.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


What To Call The Low

May 6th, 2015 at 8:55 am by under Weather

I’ll admit it…on air I hold back some thoughts while I’m doing the forecast.  I don’t mention that my head hurts during a forecast or that I have to get the grass cut when I get home.  Today’s withheld doozie is that this area of low pressure that is forming off of Florida is very annoying.  Why do you ask?  Because it is not likely to be a major system, but it’s also not a dud.  The steering currents are weak. So it will probably drift around for a while, and will probably change its track .  Also, the nomenclature is difficult to explain.  Non-tropical/extratropical, subtropical, tropical.  It may as well be Greek to the viewers.  I gave a link to a site for the difference between the classifications in yesterday’s weather blog.  Today I thought I would elaborate a little.  Especially the Non-tropical vs subtropical.  First off, the system that I’m talking about is currently a non-tropical low that is forming near Florida:

Low Forming Over Florida

Low Forming Over Florida

The low is expected to move over water.  At that point the thunderstorms around the low will likely intensify.  The warm water underneath will allow for the storms to use that energy.  When that happens, then it will acquire one characteristics of a more tropical system.  Tropical storms and hurricanes use heat from the ocean to run their engines.  That is their fuel source.  However, a subtropical system can also use some energy from the clash of the warm/cold air-masses.  That is the main driver for Extra-tropical or non-tropical systems.  We call that Baroclinic.  Nor’easters are examples of  extratropical cyclones.  Storms can be far from the center in a non-tropical system, but they get closer to the core as the storm becomes more tropical.

Extratropical vs Subtropical

Extratropical vs Subtropical

Winds can extend out from the center in both of the above cases, but the strongest winds are closer to the core in tropical systems.  These are some of the differences between the different systems, but there is more detail of course.  I don’t see this system becoming fully tropical.  One big reason is that the ocean temps are not that warm.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/satlanti.cf.gif

Sea Surface Temps NOAA

The Gulf Stream has some warm water (27 degrees C/80 degrees F).  However, this area is fairly narrow.  The area east and west of there has temperatures closer to the low 70s and upper 60s.  Tropical systems typically need a deep area of water temperatures that are 80 degrees or higher to thrive.  So this system will likely be either a non-tropical or sub-tropical system.  Here is the latest forecast from Future Trak for the low:

Future Trak (Saturday)

Future Trak (Saturday)

So after the low drifts north and strengthens for a bit, it is then forecast to move inland and weaken.  After that point it is forecast to move northeast, but it will probably also fall apart as it does.

Future Trak Sunday

Future Trak Sunday

This is agreed upon by the GFS and European models, but the European keeps it closer to the coast.  The GFS model does not bring rain into our region on Sunday, but I may have to add it as the other models are trending that way.  For now I do have scattered showers on Saturday.  If the moisture holds together, then we could see some heavy rain here.  We’ll see.   However, I don’t expect this area to be affected by any wind.  I don’t expect much for tides either unless the track changes.

In the meantime we have quiet weather around here today.  High pressure will provide for nice weather.  We may get a stray shower north of the metro.  Otherwise we’ll be partly cloudy.  The breeze is not as strong today.  They will be variable at 5-10mph.  Plus, with more clouds we won’t be as warm as yesterday.  Tuesday’s highs were in the mid-upper 80s.   Today we’ll go more for low-mid 80s.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cinco De Mayo Fiesta, And…Low Update

May 5th, 2015 at 8:30 am by under Weather

It is very nice outside right now.  The temps are mild, the sun is bright, the pollen isn’t too bad, and the breeze is up a bit.  Ahhh.  We’ll see great weather for this Cinco De Mayo.  Temps will be in the upper 70s to near 80 around the lunch hour, and then highs will top off in the mid 80s.  The nice weather can be attributed to a large area of high pressure in the region.

High Pressure In The Region

High Pressure In The Region

The high is drifting southward.  This is allowing for breezy southwest winds to form.  They will run at 10-15mph. That should stop any sea-breezes from forming today.  So it will be warm all the way to the beach (though it will be cooler right on the beach itself).  Highs will get into the mid 80s this afternoon.  The humidity isn’t too bad.  So with the breeze it should be pretty comfortable.  Tomorrow the cold front to the north will slowly sink southward.  So we may see a few isolated showers along with a stray thunderstorm in the afternoo0n.  Highs will be in the low 80s.  The front will bring us cooler weather on Thursday and Friday with highs in the low/mid 70s.  Winds will generally be out of the north/northeast.  Then we’ll warm things up a bit going into the weekend.

The weak area of low pressure is trying to form near Florida today.  It is just now in the forming process.  The models still show it.  They also all keep it to our south during its lifetime.  There is pretty good agreement that it will drift around the coastal waters for a couple of days. Then it looks to drift westward towards Savannah GA or Charleston SC.   Here is our Future Trak model’s latest forecast:

Future Trak (Low Forecast)

Future Trak (Low Forecast)

The high over our region should keep the low to the south.  Some moisture may work its way up here.  So I see a few isolated showers possible on Saturday, but overall the forecast looks dry this weekend.  I’ll work out those finer details by tomorrow.   If the cold front stalls a little more to the north than expected, then I wouldn’t be surprised if the low meanders a little more to the north.  So that’s a possibility.  It would still likely be weak though.  It is still possible for this system to become sub-tropical, but I can’t see it becoming fully tropical.

In world news….We have hit a low point in the recent sunspot cycle.  Yep!  The sun is pretty much blank right now with no sunspots on the surface.  Could this impact our weather on Earth?  There is a good correlation between sun activity and climate.  It’s very interesting.  Here is an article with more information. No Sunspots.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Nice Warmth Today. Possible Low Late Week.

May 4th, 2015 at 7:46 am by under Weather

We are coming off of a great weekend.  Both Saturday and Sunday were fabulous.  Highs in the 70s/ 80s and sunshine.  I wish we had more….(POOF!)  The genie has just popped out of the lamp and has granted me a couple more nice days.  Hooray!  But I used up my 3 wishes.  (world peace and a turbo sports car).  So he can’t get rid of the pollen.  Boo!

Ok…enough gags & quips.  Today will be nice again due to a large area of high pressure in the region.

High Pressure In The Region

High Pressure In The Region

We’ll see lots of sunshine with highs in the low/mid 80s.  The wind is only southwest at 5-10mph.  With the water temps in the 50s and 60s still, we will likely see a sea-breeze setup today.  So expect cooler temps near the shore.  However, tomorrow the breeze will be a little stronger (SW 10-15mph)  So we probably won’t have a sea-breeze, and we will likely be warmer.  A stray shower is possible tomorrow evening as a few isolated showers try to drift southeast from the D.C. area.  There’s only a low chance for that happening.

By Wednesday a cold front will move through the region.  This will bring us a few scattered showers.  Highs will be near 80.  Then we’ll be in the 70s going into the weekend.  Now for the past few days, the computer models have shown an area of low pressure forming near the Bahamas.  They generally brought it northward, but some had it drifting into Florida.  The upper level winds will be light.  So this low could meander around for a while.  Some models have it turning into a subtropical low.  Others keep it as a weak area of low pressure.  Some move it as far north as Wilmington, NC.  Some run it more towards Savannah, GA.  Either way the models basically keep it to our south.  Here is the long-range version of Future Trak:

Future Trak (Long Range)

Future Trak (Long Range)

Now if it tracks a little more to the north, then we’ll have to introduce some rain chances to the Friday-Sunday time-frame.  Regardless of the track, we will probably see some higher surf along our beaches.  Higher than 5 ft?  Southeast Swell?  It’s possible.  Stay tuned for updates.  This is still a ways out, and the low hasn’t even really formed yet.  So it will be tough for the models to really have a good handle on it in the short-term.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Squally Weather First, Then A Nice Weekend!

May 1st, 2015 at 8:47 am by under Weather

Welcome to the car wash.  Not only will our cars be cleaned, but also the pollen should get washed out.  However, the heavy rain will hamper driving today.  Especially when the winds increase.  So far the winds haven’t been too bad (as of the time of this writing), but the rain has already moved in.

Rain In the Region

Rain In the Region

The models actually did a very good job of forecasting how the rain would behave this morning.  They clearly showed that the rain would pick up and move southward.  There are actually two systems in play.  There is an area of low pressure offshore that is gaining strength.  Also there is a weaker area of low pressure back to our west.

2 Areas Of Low Pressure

2 Areas Of Low Pressure

The smaller low is moving east and will merge with the bigger low.  That will happen through the afternoon.  As the lows merge and strengthen offshore, the winds will really increase.  More on that in a moment.  So far we’ve had about a 1/4″ to 3/4″ of rain.

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

Rain will continue on and off through the day.  If you take the umbrella, the make sure you hold on to it this afternoon as the breeze increases.

Anyway, here is the view from Future Trak at 3pm:

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

The rain will begin to taper off this evening during the  pm commute:

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

After that we’ll dry out through the rest of the evening.  Tomorrow will be dry, but a weak wind-shift line could create a sprinkle or two in the evening.  the rain from this morning through tonight will add up to about 3/4 of an inch up to an inch.  That is on top of what we’ve already seen.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

After this wet/squally weather, we’ll be dry for the next few days.

As I mentioned earlier, the wind will increase through the afternoon.  The pressure gradient will increase as the offshore low builds and an area of high pressure nudges in from the west.  Wind gusts will increase to 35mph near the shore by the afternoon with gusts to 25mph inland.  This will all be out of the northeast.

Forecast Wind Speed

Forecast Wind Speed

Winds will gradually taper off this evening, but it will still be breezy near the shore.  The breeze will be up a little near the shore tomorrow morning too.  That’s important because I’ll be down at the Virginia Beach oceanfront for the March of Dimes Walk.  The walk starts at 9am, but registration starts at 8am.  The wind will taper off through the day.  It should be light for the rest of the weekend.  The rest of the extended forecast looks great.  Sunday will be dry with highs in the 70s.  Then we’ll be in the upper 70s to low 80s through the rest of the week.  We’ll be dry too.  Wow!

Finally, the tide will be up today.  It is up just a bit this morning, but the tide will be highest this evening.  Sewell’s Point is forecast to rise to near 4.2ft above the average low tide (MLLW).  This is about a foot to a foot and a half above normal.

Tide Forecast

Tide Forecast

It shouldn’t cause too many problems, but move your vehicle if your area is prone to tidal flooding.  There’s a lot of events this weekend.   The Lunatic Luau is tonight.  The March of Dimes Walk is tomorrow.  There are 2 kite festivals.  One in Virginia Beach on Saturday, one in Portsmouth on Sunday.  Also, the big Wine Festival (Norfolk) is this weekend.  So enjoy the events and have a good weekend.  Aside from outdoor events, I’ll be at Avengers 2 eating a medium popcorn with my son. Oh yeah!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Rain Moves In And Winds Will Increase

April 30th, 2015 at 8:43 am by under Weather

The rain has already pushed into the region.  Scattered light showers lifted up from the south early this morning and continued to increase.

Scattered Showers

Scattered Showers

This is from moisture pushing up from the south.  Also there is a weak area of low pressure in the region.  There is a bigger area of low pressure which is south of Hatteras, but it isn’t too strong.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

These two lows will end up merging later today into tomorrow.  The dominant low will be the one that is farther south. It will absorb the smaller low.  As this process happens, rain will increase.  So later today there is a good chance for rain showers.

Future Trak (3pm today)

Future Trak (3pm today)

By tonight the low will be strengthening offshore.  So the winds will get a chance to increase.

Low Strengthens Offshore

Low Strengthens Offshore

Tonight the will pick up to 10-15mph out of the northeast. By 7am tomorrow morning we’ll see a few gusts above 20mph near the shore.  The rain showers will start tracking southward at that point.  There will be a lot of convergence (merging of the surface winds) and perhaps a cold front as well.  So the models advertise this as the highest chance for heavy rain.

Future Trak (7am Friday)

Future Trak (7am Friday)

I don’t think we’ll see too many thunderstorms over the next 24 hours, but a couple of isolated storms are possible.  The surface winds will increase through the day on Friday.  They will pick up to 10-20mph.  The gusts will be up to 30mph near the shore.  In fact the winds may be higher from Virginia Beach down to the Outer Banks.  I mentioned yesterday, that the offshore low won’t be too strong, but the difference in pressure between that low and the high to the west will allow for winds to increase.

The rain will taper off by Friday evening.  Then the high will take over.  So we’ll be looking pretty good on Saturday and Sunday.  Keep in mind that the breeze may stay up a bit through Saturday morning as the high builds in.  The models have increased the rain totals since yesterday, and I think this will be more in-line with reality.  So Future Trak now shows a half inch up to an inch and a half through Friday night.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

With the rain and clouds today, temperatures won’t increase too much.  Highs will be in the mid 60s.  Tomorrow with the clouds, wind, and rain high temps will only be in the upper 50s.  Then with the dry conditions  over the weekend temps will warm to the 60s and 70s in the afternoons.  If you think that’s warm…well… It will be in the 70s and 80s early next week.  Dry too!  Nice!

There may be some ponding on the roads from the rain itself.  However, the persistent wind may create some minor tidal flooding as well.  There will be a stretch of 10-15 hours of northeasterly winds.  So the tide will build.  Also we will be pretty close to a full moon which affects the tides as well.  So the latest forecast has about a foot to a foot and a half rise in water above the average high tide.  Here is the forecast for Sewell’s Point:

Tide Forecast

Tide Forecast

The highest tide is forecast for Friday evening.  At this time it looks like we’ll get close to minor tidal flooding. If you want to see the updates and forecast for other areas, then just follow this link: NWS Tides.  If the winds were to increase briefly late Friday, then the tide could increase.  So stay tuned for that possibility.

It will be a messy 36 hours, but then we have some nice weather to look forward to.  Also, I planted some grass seed.  So hopefully, the rain will help that grow.  Also, also… the pollen will be very low for 2 days.  So there are some silver linings in the forecast.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler