Jeremy Wheeler

Weekend Cool-Down And Gonzalo

October 17th, 2014 at 8:46 am by under Weather

Locally we have some great weather on the way.  We started today with this:

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

The sunshine was aplenty and the temperatures were in the 50s.  We’ll see lots of sun today as high pressure has sunk into the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The upper level low that moved over us yesterday has moved out to sea.  Highs will be in the mid 70s.  Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.  Not too shabby.  Tonight will be quiet with lows in the 50s.  We’ll start off tomorrow with clear skies and cool temps.  By the afternoon things will change a bit.  A cold front will move through the region along with a weak mid level disturbance.  Normally this would cause some showers, but at this time it looks too dry.  I will say that there may be a couple of sprinkles, but for now the models only really show an increase in clouds.  Highs will still manage to get into the 70s.  By Sunday the front will have cleared the region.  We’ll have clearing skies and dry weather behind it.  So Sunday will see lots of sunshine and highs in the mid 60s.  The low temperatures won’t be too cool yet.  However, by Monday morning we’ll see temps drop to the 40s area-wide.  It’s possible that we could even see a few 30s inland between Monday and Tuesday morning.  It’s probably too early for frost, but stay tuned for updates.

Speaking of updates…Hurricane Gonzalo remains a powerful hurricane.  The eye of the hurricane has become more ragged, but the latest winds are still high.

Gonzalo On Satellite

Gonzalo On Satellite

The filling in of the eye may be a sign of longer term weakening, but that remains to be seen.  This morning the hurricane had winds of 130mph.  This is likely to go down as the forecast calls for, but they probably won’t drop too much before landfall.  It is still forecast to hit Bermuda as a category 3 hurricane later today.

Gonzalo Forecast

Gonzalo Forecast

This means that the winds will be about 120mph sustained with gusts up to 150mph.  These are similar conditions to when hurricane Fabian hit the island back in 2003.  That hurricane caused extensive damage to the Bermuda coast and to much of the island.  The surge was about 11ft then.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the surge got above 12 feet from Gonzalo.   Either way, the waves are forecast to reach 35-40ft.

Wave Height From Gonzalo

Wave Height From Gonzalo

Those wave heights are on top of the surge.  Luckily much of the island is elevated and there are some coral reefs surrounding it as well.  Notice that even here locally we’ll see an increase in the waves.  Expect about 4-5 ft waves with some 5-7 ft waves near Hatteras.  This will stay up a bit tomorrow, but will drop on Sunday.  Should be good surf with our winds out of the west.  The hurricane will move over the north Atlantic waters and will gradually weaken this weekend.  It doesn’t look like it will impact Newfoundland much anymore.  It is forecast to stay a little farther out to sea.  They will get some high waves though.  Hopefully, Bermuda will be ok.  As I mentioned in a previous blog, they have had a lot of storms over the last few years.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Coolness, Gonzalo, & Snowy Winter?

October 16th, 2014 at 9:03 am by under Weather

We did have the rain yesterday, but luckily we didn’t have any severe weather in the region.  A pocket of drier air in the mid levels and lots of clouds helped to limit the bad weather in the region.  The rain totals weren’t too bad.  We had about 3/4″ up to 1″ from the Peninsula northward with 0.25″ to about 0.5″  for the Southside, Eastern Shore, and northeast North Carolina.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

Another reason that we probably didn’t see strong storms was that the cold front moved way out ahead of the upper level low.  Today that will play a part in our forecast.  For instance…this morning we had a lot of sunshine and cooler temperatures behind the front.  The rain had pushed well offshore.  Other than some patchy light fog it was a nice morning.  However, the upper level low still hasn’t passed through yet.  It is off to our west.

Sattelite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

So as the upper level pocket of energy moves into Hampton Roads this afternoon we’ll see the clouds increase, and a couple of sprinkles will form.  Highs will be in the low/mid 70s.  By tomorrow this system will push out to sea.  So we’ll have lots of sunshine.  However, the winds will be more northerly.  So we’ll hold onto the highs in the low 70s.  Another weak upper level low will move through on Saturday, but it only looks to increase the clouds for now.  Then more sunshine on Sunday.  Highs will be in the 70s on Saturday, but cooler air will surge into the region on Sunday.  So highs will be in the 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

Speaking of cooler weather…. The Winter forecast is still up in the air a bit.  (No pun intended) However, there are some signs that it really could be as snowy and wintry as some sources are suggesting.  One big indicator for the Winter forecast is the amount of snowpack over Siberia.  Yep, the geographic area over Asia.  There is more and more research on how snowpack in Siberia is linked to U.S. snowfall through teleconnections.    Here is a new article with an update on the current snowpack, and the possible effects it could have on global weather.  Siberia Snowpack.   This is not the only thing to watch, but signs are pointing to a colder snowier Winter at this point.  We’ll see what happens in October.

Last, but not least… Hurricane Gonzalo is still a major hurricane.  It went up to category 4 (winds of  130-156mph) status yesterday.  Then it went back down last night to a cat 3.  This morning the 5 am update came in very early.  At that time the National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm to a category 4 again. What happened was that the eye went under an eyewall replacement cycle.   It even disappeared on satellite, but then came back this morning.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

The storm was over 500 miles SSW of Bermuda and was moving north.  Sustained winds were at 140mph.  The hurricane is forecast to head straight towards Bermuda in the next 36 hours.  This is terrible news for the island.  In fact it is currently forecast to move over Bermuda as a major hurricane on Friday.   Damaging winds and possible flooding are forecast for the region along with high waves.  This could be the most destructive storm to hit there since hurricane Fabian in 2003.  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Strong Storms And Hurricane Gonzalo

October 15th, 2014 at 8:49 am by under Weather

No doubt that there’s been some rough weather to our west over the past couple of days.  A powerful system has brought numerous reports of severe weather to the Deep South and the Midwest.   As the system moved east it is lost some of its energy.  However, we could still see a few strong storms in our region today.

A cold front was the focus for a long line of showers and storms since the overnight hours.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The line was moving very slowly to the east.  Meanwhile we’ve had a few showers moving up from the south ahead of the line.  We will be ahead of the front during the day.  The low level winds will be very strong.  Surface winds will gust up to 30mph.  This will let the temperatures climb into the low 80s this afternoon.  Also, the moisture is continuing to pool into the region.  The line of storms will slowly edge east through the day.  We may see a brief break in the clouds and rain, but this will be short lived.  Here is what our Future Trak model shows for noon:

Future Trak (Noon)

Future Trak (Noon)

If we do get some sunshine, then it will add to our instability.  Then the storms will feed off of this between noon and 3pm.  Wind shear is fairly high today, but the instability should be somewhat limited.   The main threat from the storms will be strong gusty winds over 45mph.  Also, heavy rain will be a threat as well.  Hail should be very limited.  An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, but the chance is very low.  The showers and storms will still be going into the evening, but they should be a bit more scattered at that time.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

The showers and storms will taper off through the late evening.  The cold front will finally move through in the late evening hours between about 9pm and midnight.  All-in-all we are looking at about an inch of rain in the region.  A few locations will see over an inch and a half.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

By tomorrow we’ll see much quieter/cooler weather.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  We may see some sunshine in the morning, but we’ll have an increase in clouds during the afternoon.  The upper level low will push through the region at that time.  So we could even see a few sprinkles.  Shouldn’t be much.  Then we’ll finally dry out by Thursday night.  Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look great. We’ll see lots of sunshine and highs in the 60s and 70s.

Hurricane Gonzalo is churning over the central Atlantic waters.  It has sustained winds of 125mph.  This is a category 3 hurricane.  It was located about 650 miles south of Bermuda, and was moving northwest at 13mph.  The hurricane lost its eye for a bit this morning. Then it re-formed.  But it was much smaller than it was last night.

Gonzalo On Satellite

Gonzalo On Satellite

The storm is forecast to move more to the north today, and then north-northeast by tonight.  Gonzalo is encountering some wind shear and a little drier air.  Soon it will also move over cooler waters.  So it’s possible that it will weaken a bit as it heads towards Bermuda.  However, the latest forecast still has it as a major hurricane as it approaches the island tomorrow.

Gonzalo Forecast

Gonzalo Forecast

This could really disrupt things over Bermuda.  They not only just had hurricane Fay, but overall they have had a lot of storms over the last few years.  In fact Bermuda has seen more than twice as much tropical activity as the state of Florida over the last few years.

We’ll see some waves come in from Gonzalo.  We are looking at some 4 foot waves today with a few 5 footers possible.  Friday and Saturday could see some 5 foot waves with a few 6 footers.  Stay tuned for updates to all of this.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Front Forming…Is Fay Forming Too?

October 10th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

Locally we have some pretty good weather today.  However, there is a stationary front forming in the region, and it will have an impact on our weekend weather.  The front is developing this morning just to our north.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The boundary was really just a wind-shift line, but the cold and warm air on both sides are getting reinforced.  As high pressure slides to our southeast, we’ll develop southwesterly winds locally.  This will let the temperatures rise up to the upper 70s to low 80s.  Meanwhile it will only be in the upper 60s in Washington D.C.

Forecast High Temps

Forecast High Temps

Along the front there will be some spotty showers today.  These will try to move into the region this afternoon.  However, I’m only calling for a slight chance for that shower or a 20% chance.  That is for southeast Virginia, but I doubt we’ll see anything in North Carolina.  Otherwise we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds.

Tomorrow the front will slowly sink south as a cold front. Though it will be very slow moving.  This will create a chance for scattered showers in the region.  I put the chance at 20% tomorrow morning, and then 40% by the late afternoon.   It definitely won’t rain all day.  Here is what Future Trak shows for Saturday at 3pm:

Future Trak (3pm Sat.)

Future Trak (3pm Sat.)

The boundary will keep heading south late Saturday into early Sunday.  We’ll dry out on Sunday, but not completely as the front stalls out over North Carolina.  So we could see an isolated shower or two.  Otherwise Sunday is looking pretty good.  Highs will be in the low 70s on Saturday….upper 60s on Sunday.

We’ll be mild and dry Monday and Tuesday.  Then a large system will move through the region on Wednesday.  Rain is likely and there will probably be some thunderstorms.  The deep flow out of the south will let the moisture pool into the region.  So heavy rain will be possible.  Stay tuned for updates.

In the tropics there is an update.  By the time you read this, tropical storm Fay is likely to have formed.  Or at least it will shortly.  It is very impressive on the satellite, and has been all morning.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

Ok.  Maybe it will be subtropical storm Fay.  Either way, this area looks like it has its act together as it moves to the north/northwest. You can find the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center here: NHC forecast.  The forecast models keep it out to sea, but it may impact Bermuda.  It may also bring us some higher waves by the weekend.  So we’ll have to monitor.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Up And Down Temps, And Tidal Flooding Report

October 9th, 2014 at 8:34 am by under Weather

Yesterday we had a weak cool front move through the region.  It didn’t really cool us down much at first.  However, temps did fall last night as the skies were clear and the winds were light.  It was in the 40s inland with some milder 60s near the coast.  A northeast breeze coming off of the ocean and bay kept the temps up in Norfolk and Virginia Beach.  Later today high pressure will provide for a very nice day.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll see fair skies and highs in the low/mid 70s.  Tomorrow the clouds will increase, but winds will be out of the southeast. So we’ll warm up a bit.  We’ll see highs back in the upper 70s to low 80s.  Then a cold front will move into the region over the weekend and cool us down again.  The front is still expected to stall out over the region.  This will give us a chance for some scattered showers both days.  The models are still looking at only some light/scattered showers.  In fact they have been trending drier over the last 24 hours.  So I still believe there will be a lot of time in between the rain.  I may even drop the chance on Sunday to slight.  We’ll see.   If you have outdoor plans, then this is good news.  The models are actually picking up on a bigger storm system next Tuesday into Wednesday.  This is looking like it will cause lots of showers and storms in the region.  It will be a big trough that will slide out of the Midwest into the Southeast.   A lot of deep moisture looks to move into the region so stay tuned for updates.

In the tropics things are fairly quiet.  There is a weak disturbance north/northeast of the Leeward Islands that may develop over the next few days.

Weak Disturbance In The Tropics

Weak Disturbance In The Tropics

It is moving generally northwest.  It is expected to stay out to sea, and it could impact Bermuda.  Also it could bring us some waves down the road.  We’ve see a lot of tidal flooding this year.  Some of it has been indirectly from systems well offshore.  So we’ll monitor this system for that.

In that same realm.  A new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists is out, and it talks directly about how tides are rising along the East Coast.  Nuisance to minor tidal flooding has increased in frequency over the years.  I have personally witnessed this in my 10 years at WAVY.  It is getting to the point that we have nuisance tidal flooding even with the weakest disturbances.  I now have to factor in the tide when heavy rain is forecast.  This is from systems that are not even coastal in nature.   The article specifically talks about the Norfolk and Outer Banks areas on pages 34-36.  So this really hits home, and is a good read.  Here is the article: Increasing Tidal Flooding.

Let me know your thoughts about it in the comment section.  Thanks!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Eclipse Photos And A Warmup

October 8th, 2014 at 8:58 am by under Weather

Some lucky folks got to see the lunar eclipse this morning.  Others had clouds in the way.  Here is one photo from Eric Quarles in Virginia Beach.  He got a nice close up view:

Lunar Eclipse

Lunar Eclipse

Here is what we saw on Tower Cam 10 as it turned into a crescent:

tower cam

Tower Cam

The sun came up and made it difficult to see the moon in the shore time before setting.  So Hampton Roads was unable to see the simultaneous eclipsing moon-sun combo this morning.  Bummer.  At least most of us got to see the eclipse.  Here is a slideshow with more high quality photos. Lunar Eclipse photos.

Now the sun is up and the moon is gone.  We’ll see increasing sunshine today.  A cold front is turning into a wind-shift line as it moves into our region this morning.  The cold air behind it is modifying.  So that’s why I call it a wind-shift line at this point.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

With the westerly winds and clearing skies we are going for a warm afternoon.  Highs will rise to the low 80s with some mid 80s inland.  At least it will dry out and the breeze will help.  So it shouldn’t get too terribly warm.  By tonight the boundary will be well to our south.  So we’ll have light winds and mostly clear skies. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s.

Tomorrow we’ll be a little cooler as the winds will be out of our north/northeast.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  Then we’ll warm up again on Friday to the upper 70s.

It will be cooler this weekend as the next cold front moves into the region.  The models haven’t been all over the place, but they do keep changing with each run.  The generally show some scattered light showers for both Saturday and Sunday, but nowhere near a washout.  In fact a lot of the showers could just be sprinkles.  I put the chance for rain at 30-40% for each day, but I’m wondering if we can drop the chance to slight by tomorrow.  I’m downplaying it a little prematurely.  The models may wetten up before we get to that point.  So stay tuned.  Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  At least it will be cool.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Hey It’s Warm, And Moon Odds!

October 7th, 2014 at 9:13 am by under Weather

Warm?  This morning some of our temperatures were 10-20 degrees warmer than yesterday…which was already a few degrees warmer than the prior day.  That’s Hampton Roads for you.  Ever changing weather.  So this morning the temperatures started in the 50s and 60s.  We did have a lot of clouds around.  In fact…The sun was shining behind a deck of clouds and some rays of light shone from behind.  It was a beautiful sight.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

Clouds will break up by the late morning and midday.  High pressure will keep any rain to our west.

Today's Forecast Map

Today’s Forecast Map

The southerly winds and partial clearing will kick the temps up to near 80 degrees.  Wow!  That is a big warmup from Sunday when highs were in the mid 60s.  Humidity shouldn’t be too bad, but it will increase a bit.  The cool front will move through tonight.  We’ll only see some spotty showers along the weak boundary.  Lows will be in the mid 60s.

Tomorrow the front will move through, but it will pretty much fall apart too.  So we’ll have westerly winds and drying through the day.  Skies will likely go to mostly sunny by the afternoon after partly cloudy skies in the morning.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Highs will still manage to get up to near 80 degrees.  Then the wind will turn on Thursday.  They’ll be out of the north/northeast.  So high temps will only be in the low 70s that day.  We’ll go right back up to the upper 70s by Friday.  I’ve taken the rain chances out for Friday.   The next cold front will move in late Friday night into Saturday.  Unlike last weekend, this next front looks to stall out just south of the region.  Some scattered showers will move along this front, but they won’t last the entire weekend.  In fact some of the model trends have been do put in a lot more time in-between the showers.  It does look like some rain on both Saturday and Sunday.  For now it looks like the better chance will be on Sunday, but I’d wait before you solidify any outdoor plans.

As far as the total lunar eclipse….Weeelll….  It could be tough to see it.  First off…the weather.  We are looking at partly cloudy skies tomorrow morning.  It’s tough to say if the clouds will allow for viewing, but I’m optimistic for now.  Perhaps they will be very thin.  We’ll see.  Then there’s the astronomical hurdles.

Total Lunar Eclipse

Total Lunar Eclipse

The eclipse will really start going around 5 am, but it won’t be in full until about 6:30 am.  It’s a pretty slow process.  The sun will rise at 7:06 am.  This will allow for a brief window where you (may) be able to see the rising sun and the setting eclipsed moon at the same time.  The problem is that the moon sets at 7:11am.  With the moon getting darker during the pre-dawn twilight it may be tough to see it for a while.  So the window will be brief.  In fact the moon is typically not visible when it is 1-2 degrees above the horizon.  Especially if there is haze.  So there is even less time really.

Now some may ask.  If the moon and the sun are directly opposite, how can we see them at the same time?  Especially with the earth exactly in-between the two.  The answer is refraction.

Refraction Of Light

Refraction Of Light

Light bends around the earth and makes the moon and sun appear a little higher than they actually are.  Here is a link with more information about that.  Eclipse And Light Refraction.  So the odds are decent of seeing the eclipse itself (if the clouds cooperate), but there is a much lower chance of seeing the sun and moon at the same time.  If you get any cool photos, then please send them to reportit@wavy.com.  Good luck junior astronomers! May the odds be with you.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Total Lunar Eclipse Soon

October 6th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

Normally, I start off by talking about the local weather story.  However, meteorologist Tiffany Savona already did a good job of that last night.  So here is her blog with the details: Tiffany’s Weather Blog.

Since she had the local weather covered, I wanted to mention an upcoming celestial event.  There will be a total lunar eclipse this next Wednesday morning (Oct. 8th).  However, it may be difficult to see.  First off there is likely to be at least some clouds in the region.  They may clear out in time, but we’ll see.  Secondly, the window to see it will be fairly brief.  This is because it will happen just a little before the moon sets, and shortly after the sun rises.  So due to the curvature of the earth and refraction you will be able to see both at the same time. (Weather pending).  This is called a syzygy.   Here’s a link with more information.  Total lunar Eclipse.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Time For Jackets And Hot Chocolate!

October 3rd, 2014 at 8:44 am by under Weather

There’s some cooler weather on the way.  It’s about time to pull out those sweaters, and to buy the big packets of hot chocolate.  But hold on! We have one more warm day to get through first.  High pressure is in the region, but it is pushing offshore.  This will allow for more southerly winds today.  That will help to get the temperatures going into the upper 70s to low 80s in the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

As you can see there were some heavy duty showers over Kentucky and Tennessee. As these move east, most of them will fall apart.  A few of them may survive and push in by the early evening.  1 or 2 may even reach our far inland areas late in the afternoon.  However, the models only show a stray shower possible during that time.  The bulk of the rain will come in after midnight.  The cold front will move through the region early tomorrow morning.  There will be scattered showers moving through with the front.  They will linger behind the front until about 10-11am.  Here is what Future Trak shows for 7 am and noon tomorrow.

Future Trak (7am Sat)

Future Trak (7am Sat)

 

Future Trak (Noon Sat.)

Future Trak (Noon Sat.)

Notice at noon that there may be a stray shower along the coast, but it will push out shortly after that.  We are only looking at a couple tenths of an inch of rain in the region.  The cold front will quickly dive to the east/southeast.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

This will allow us to quickly dry out during the afternoon. However high temps won’t be too cool just yet because the winds will be more out of the west than the north.  So temps will still be able to rise into the mid 70s.  Saturday night will be a different story.  We’ll have clear skies, lighter winds, and dry air.  So low temperatures will drop down to the 40s area-wide.  We may even see some low-mid 40s inland.  It will be chilly.  Especially if you are in a tent.  Yep.  I’ll be camping this weekend with the scouts.  Also it will be chilly for the JT Walk down at the oceanfront on Sunday.  Also… the Crawlin Crab events up in Hampton will be chilly.  We’ll only see highs in the mid 60s on Sunday, but at least we’ll have plenty of sunshine.  We’ll warm up to the low 70s by early next week, but Monday will also start with lows in the 40s.  Ladies and gentlemen…get your hot chocolate mugs ready!  Or your pumpkin flavored latte mugs.  Either way.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


On Track For Change

October 2nd, 2014 at 9:02 am by under Weather

We are still on track to get some big changes this weekend.  Even this morning there was one noticeable change…A lack of fog.  A weak disturbance rolled in last night and produced a few sprinkles.  It also increased the clouds in the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The clouds helped to prohibit fog formation.  This happens as the clouds act like a blanket and keeps the surface temps from falling. Therefore since temps don’t drop to the dew point, then the water vapor in the air does not condense.  So fog is not likely during cloudy nights.  There are exceptions.  One area was an exception to the lack of fog this morning.  The Eastern Shore did have some for a brief while.  For the rest of the day though high pressure will dominate the weather.  So we’ll have partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 70s.  There may be 1 or 2 inland readings near 80.

There is a cold front in the Midwest that is causing lots of stormy weather today. As this system moves east it will weaken over the next 24 hours.  The front will make it to western Virginia by tomorrow evening.  We’ll be ahead of it with some warm temperatures during the day.  Skies will be partly cloudy

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The front will move through our area late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Rain will move in with the front.  The latest models have the rain lasting through most of the morning Saturday.  They may continue up until noon along the coast, but then they will push out during the afternoon.  Some of the models are calling for more in the way of scattered showers for Saturday morning.  The GFS still has a continuous line of showers.  Either way at least some rain is likely during Saturday morning.  Temperatures won’t cool down too much on Saturday.  However, we’ll drop down to the upper 40s to low 50s Saturday night.  Skies will clear.  Then we’ll see nice weather and highs in the mid-upper 60s on Sunday.  By Monday morning we’ll see lows in the 40s area-wide.  It will be some of the coolest air that we’ll have had since last Spring.  Course we did have that one weird/cool day in the middle of last Summer, but it didn’t get that cool in the metro.

We’ll have nice weather and mild temps early next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler