Jeremy Wheeler

Warm Rain Today, Wintry Mix Tomorrow.

January 12th, 2015 at 9:01 am by under Weather

We have some good and bad things going on in the weather world today.  While I am expecting rain for pretty much the entire day.  At least the temperatures will warm up a bit.   Rain showers started up last night and continued into the morning hours.

Rain This Morning

Rain This Morning

Rain will continue through most of the day into the evening.  An isolated thunderstorm isn’t out of the question, but it would only be one or two.
Regardless, rain will be heavy at times.  We are looking at 1-2 inches of rain in the region through tomorrow afternoon.

Rainfall Forecast

Rainfall Forecast

The above is our model, but I believe it is underestimating a bit.

Tonight a cold front will move into the region.  This will drop our temperatures to the mid-upper 30s overnight.  A few showers are still possible, but it will be less coverage than today.  Tomorrow we’ll have some chilly/scattered showers.  The chance for rain is 30-40%.  (Today it’s 100%).  Highs will be near 40, but the wind will be strong.  It will run out of the northeast at 10-20mph with a few gusts to 25mph near the shore.  So it will feel like the 30s with the wind chills.  If you get wet with that, then you will get chilled to the bone.  By tomorrow night the colder air will really settle into the region.  This will bring a wintry mix to the area. . We’ll see a scattered wintry mix Tuesday night continuing into Wednesday.  Temps will probably be above freezing for most areas, but not too far above.  So melting would be likely.  However, cities towards James City County, The Middle Peninsula, and the Northern Neck could see temperatures near freezing.  So our model is showing some snow there (blue areas on map below)

Future Trak (11pm Tue)

Future Trak (11pm Tue)

Keep in mind that the models differ on the amount of moisture in the local atmosphere.  The GFS model, for instance, is much drier from the Peninsula northward.  So we’ll have to get some updates.  Either way we could expect at least a few problems for the Wednesday morning commute.  A mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow are possible at that time.  It could linger for a bit on Wednesday before the temps rise above freezing.  Most of the models show most of the problems from Isle of Wight county northward.  It’s still early in the game.  Things could (and probably will) change.  This is all from a weak offshore low that will try and push some moisture up into a colder airmass.  The low is expected to move out by Wednesday night.  Then we’ll dry out by Thursday.  We’ll stay dry going into the weekend, and temps look to steadily warm up each day.  No big heat ahead, but at least some 50s will return.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Good News…Warming…For Now!

January 9th, 2015 at 7:09 am by under Weather

Hopefully, you’ve thawed out a bit since yesterday’s ice box.  Temperatures stayed in the 20s all afternoon.  Then we started to drop a bit in the evening.  Now yesterday we mentioned that the temperatures would warm in the overnight.  They did.  When I came in this morning we started with temperatures in the mid-upper 20s.  By 6am, some temperatures had already risen to near 30.

Temps Early This Morning

Temps Early This Morning

One big reason why we warmed up in the overnight was due to the southwest winds.   The southwesterly winds were increasing our temps, but not the surface moisture.  In fact dew points were still in the single digits.  So the moisture did increase in the upper levels, but not the low levels.  That’s why the clouds have increased overnight.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

So since last night, the morning forecast is beginning to look more like virga and a few sprinkles/sleet pellets and less like freezing drizzle.  That’s for this morning and it’s more likely for northeast North Carolina up to near the state border.

Future Trak (AM)

Future Trak (AM)

Later today we’ll see a pleasant mix of sun and clouds along with the warming temperatures. Highs will be in the low 40s.  There will probably even be some mid 40s in several cities.  This will be a heat wave compared to yesterday.

Don’t get used to it though.  This is Hampton Roads afterall.  Therefore another cold front will move through the region tonight.  It will move through as a dry front.  So no precipitation is expected.  We’ll have mostly clear skies and lows will drop to the low 20s.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 8-12mph.

Tomorrow high pressure will re-build back into the area.  So we’ll have fair skies, but it will be cold again.  Northerly winds will stop the temperatures from rising above the low/mid 30s.  Wind chills will be in the 20s.  Luckily we’ll warm up again by Sunday.  Not a lot, but temperatures will rise to the low 40s.  It will be in the 50s on Monday (Yeah!), but rain is likely in the region (Boo!)  We’ll be chilly, but not too cold through the rest of next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Dangerous Wind Chills!

January 8th, 2015 at 8:39 am by under Weather

As predicted…it got super cold.  Yesterday we warmed up through the midday.  Then temperatures dropped through the afternoon. Winds increased as well.  The winds briefly gusted to over 40mph in Virginia Beach last night.  Most of the gusts were above 30mph.  It was rough.  The breeze stayed up through the night.  Wind chills this morning were in the single digits and negatives.

Wind Chills This Morning

Wind Chills This Morning

Temperatures started in the teens.  We had mostly clear skies with a few more clouds on the Eastern Shore.  I mentioned in yesterday’s blog that a strong area of high pressure was building into the region.  That’s why the winds became so strong.  Today the high will build in even further.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This will let the winds lighten up through the day as the high settles right over us.  Plus it will create lots of sunshine.  We may see a few flurries over on the Eastern Shore, but it shouldn’t be much (if anything).  So temperatures will try to rise to the mid 20s today.  As the winds lighten to 5-15mph, the wind chills will increase.  So they will be in the upper teens to near 20 this afternoon.

Temp/Wind Chill Forecast

Temp/Wind Chill Forecast

By tonight the winds will be more out of the south.  We’ll see clouds increase a bit.  Temperatures will bottom out near 20 degrees, and then they will rise overnight.  So by tomorrow morning temps will be in the mid 20s to near 30.  Our Future Trak Model does show an isolated shower or two over the Outer Banks by 8am.

Future Trak (8am Fri)

Future Trak (8am Fri)

This will have to be monitored.  The temperatures at that time and in that location should be above freezing.  If they are not, then we could see some brief freezing rain or sleet pellets there.  Stay tuned.  I’m optimistic for now.  Through the day we’ll see partly cloudy skies, southerly winds at 5-15mph, and highs in the low 40s.  By Friday night another cold front will move through the region.  This next cold airmass won’t be quite as cold as today’s.  However, highs will only be in the mid 30s.  We’ll warm back to the 40s on Sunday.  We should stay dry over the weekend.  Then we’ll see rain and milder temperatures on Monday. Highs will be in the low 50s.

We’ve given lots of tips for the cold up to this point.  Please take them seriously.  You may not be too bad just going from the house to the car, but it will be rough for folks waiting for buses or working outdoors.  Either way be careful today.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Brutal Cold Is On The Way

January 7th, 2015 at 8:50 am by under Weather

I thought about whether or not I should use the word brutal for this blast of cold air that’s on the way.  While the temps themselves may not be brutal, the wind chills will be.  It’s interesting that we are talking about brutal cold, but yet we aren’t likely to break a record low in the next couple of days.  Huh?…  Yep!  I’ll be more specific in a moment.  First off lets talk about what’s happening in the short-term.  We had clouds this morning with a little sun peaking through.  In fact… we had one of the most gorgeous shots on tower cam that I’ve ever seen due to the cloud setup. Take a look.

Tower Cam

Tower Cam

Temperatures were in the low/mid 30s.  The winds were very light.  I tried to warn people to not be fooled though as the temperatures were expected to drop today and the winds would quickly strengthen. There were no big weather systems near our region, but a large area of high pressure was building over the central U.S.  This will be the biggest player in our weather over the next 36 hours.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The low in the northeast is weak, but won’t move much.  The high to the west will build to very strong levels.  It will get up to about 1036 mb (millibars).   We are at about 1014 mb right now.  The increasing pressure gradient (difference in value over a certain distance) will force the winds to increase.  By this afternoon we’ll see winds out of the northwest at 15-25mph.  Gusts will be up to about 35mph.  Then tonight we could see some gusts up to 40mph.  Cold air advecting in will force temperatures to drop to the teens overnight.

Forecast Low Temps

Forecast Low Temps

These numbers are model-based.  So we could get a little lower near the coast.  Either way it will be cold enough for pipes to freeze.  So drip the faucets tonight.  Only a slow drip is needed.  Especially if your pipes are along an outer wall.  Also bring in the pets that have been outside lately.   Even the big dogs will be affected by this cold.  Now, I mentioned that it will be cold but not record-setting.  The record low for tomorrow morning at Norfolk is 13 set back in 1970.  Temps are forecast to be in the upper teens there.  If the winds would drop, then we might make a run for the record, but winds are expected to stay up.  We could see some gusts to 30mph tomorrow morning.  The area of high pressure will build in close enough to lighten the winds a bit tomorrow.  They will stay up out of the northwest at about 10-20mph, but will gradually weaken.  We could see some higher gusts near the shore in the morning.  Skies will be mostly sunny.  There may be a few Bay effect flurries over on the Eastern Shore, but otherwise it will be dry.  High temperatures will only rise to the mid-upper 20s with a few 30s from Virginia Beach southward.

Forecast Temps Thursday

Forecast Temps Thursday

The winds will die down Thursday night.  Temps will drop to the 20s.  Then we’ll warm up to the low 40s Friday afternoon with fair skies.  We’ll stay chilly this weekend, but it won’t be as cold.  Highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.  The rain has been pushed back from Sunday to Monday.  So there’s some good news.  We’ll probably get into the 50s on Monday….Heat wave!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Lots Of Cold With A Few Flakes

January 6th, 2015 at 8:40 am by under Weather

The super cold air is on the way, but today some of us were treated to a couple of snow flurries.  It wasn’t much, but we had some isolated flakes falling from James City county to the Eastern Shore.

Flurries On Radar

Flurries On Radar

Otherwise it was dry and chilly this morning.  There was a weak upper level disturbance that was just north of our region.  This was causing snow from Washington D.C. over to New York City.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This disturbance is quickly moving east.  The whole region will dry out over the next few hours.  We’ll see more sunshine this afternoon with highs in the upper 40s in Hampton Roads.  Winds will be light and variable.   The really cold air will start gaining strength tonight into tomorrow.  Locally we’ll drop to the 30s tonight.  Then tomorrow temps will either hold in the 30s, or they may even drop a bit.

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Temperatures

Winds will pick up out of the west at 10-20mph with higher gusts.  We could see a few flurries tomorrow as the winds pick up, but overall we are looking dry.  Then the temps get really cold.  Very strong high pressure will build in from the west.  This will increase the winds as they turn more out of the north.  These winds will let the cold air pour into the region.  So lows will drop to the teens by Thursday morning.  It will be in the 20s near the shore.

Future Trak Temps (Thursday AM)

Future Trak Temps (Thursday AM)

With the winds up and the temps down it will feel like zero degrees with the wind chills.  This will be dangerous for those that have to wait for buses and for anyone that works outside.  We’ll have sunshine Thursday afternoon, but the high temperatures will only rise to the mid-upper 20s.  Wow!  Then we’ll drop back to the teens by Friday morning.  This will be the time to drip the faucets.  Not just the inland locations, but even cities near the shore.  By Friday afternoon we should warm up a bit.  Highs will rise back to the low 40s.  We’ll see 40s over the weekend with a chance for rain coming back by Sunday.

With all of this cold air talk, it’s interesting to read about Alaska.  Lately Anchorage has been very warm.  Some folks up there are wondering where their Winter is.  This is becoming a long term trend.  This article from the LA Times talks about how it never got below freezing there during all of 2014.  Warmth In Anchorage.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


I’m Baaack! I’ve Brought Cold!

January 5th, 2015 at 8:45 am by under Weather

Alright….I’m back from my trip to Illinois.  It was a nice trip, and we got to see lots of family.  It was pretty cold up there, but this is the first time that I took the trip during Winter and didn’t see one flake of snow.  Some years I’ve seen at least a couple of flurries or some melted snow on the road.  This year…nada.  In fact many up there were wondering where their Winter went.  It did snow right after we left, but it wasn’t much.   One morning we woke up and the temperature was one degree.  Then we get back here and the highs yesterday hit the mid 70s. Whaaa?? Now my body is out of whack!  I took down my Christmas decorations in my shorts.  It was pretty nice out yesterday afternoon, but it felt weird.  Then the cold front moved through yesterday evening, and revved up the winds for a while.  Now the winds have settled down.  We had about a half inch of rain in the region (overall), but now the rain has moved out.

This morning the temps weren’t too bad, though they were dropping.  Temps were in the 50s when I got in.  Now they have dropped to the 40s.   The cold front has already moved offshore.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There were some clouds around, but clearing has moved in from the west.  We’ll stay in the 40s today with a couple of 50s here or there.  Winds will be out of the west/northwest.  Tonight we’ll see an upper level trough move into the region. So the clouds will increase a little bit.  There may be some snow up towards Washington D.C., but not here.  At most we could get a flurry towards Reedville or Chincoteague.  Tomorrow we’ll see highs in the 40s again with partly cloudy skies. There will be more clouds to the north and there is a weak chance for a sprinkle or flurry north of the metro.

By Tuesday night/early Wednesday there will be another cold front moving through Hampton Roads.  This will be the edge of the Arctic blast coming in from the Midwest.  So highs will be in the mid 30s on Wednesday.  We’ll drop to the teens by Thursday morning.  Then we’ll only see highs in the upper 20s Thursday afternoon. The average high is 48 degrees for this time of year.  We’ll warm up a bit then by Friday. Highs will return to the 40s.  Oh boy!

While the overall forecast looks dry, I wouldn’t be surprised if a few flurries or sprinkles sneak into the forecast this week.  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


So This Is Christmas…Eve…Weather?

December 24th, 2014 at 8:37 am by under Weather

If you are confused by the title, then let me explain. It is a play off of a famous Christmas song by John Lennon “Happy Christmas”.   The opening of the song goes ” So This Is Christmas”.  And this weather that we have today is not in sync with the holiday.  Let’s start with this morning.  We had areas of fog and temperatures warming into the upper 50s to low 60s.  It was also raining over much of the area.

Morning Radar

Morning Radar

The rain was really picking along I-95, and it was all moving east.  A warm front was lifting up from the south.  As it did, it started to dissipate the fog.  This front was connected to a large area of low pressure in the Midwest.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The center of the system is over Illinois, but it is a large area of low pressure.  It is helping to create many of the rain showers that you see on the map above.  A cold front was passing through the Southeast.  There is a very warm/humid airmass ahead of that boundary.   So today we’ll see on and off rain showers.

Future Trak (Noon Today)

Future Trak (Noon Today)

Winds will be out of the south at 10-20mph.  Despite lots of clouds and rain, the high temperatures will rise to the low/mid 70s.  The record high for today at Norfolk International Airport is 75 degrees (1891).  We may reach that temperature today.  With the warmth and humidity there will be some fuel for thunderstorms.  This will occur during the afternoon and evening.  While they will be scattered in nature, it’s possible that some storms will have heavy rain and strong gusty winds.  An isolated severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out.  So this will be possible anytime between the mid-afternoon into the late evening hours.  Especially if we see some peeks of sunshine.  Then the chance for a few stronger storms will increase.

Future Trak (7PM)

Future Trak (7PM)

The cold front will move through sometime around midnight.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible until then.  A few showers will try to linger into tomorrow morning between 1 and 5am. Luckily we’ll dry out shortly after that.  We actually will see a pretty nice day tomorrow overall. After the early morning showers we’ll dry out and eventually clear out.  We’ll see a westerly breeze through the day.  High temperatures will be cooler, but it will still be pretty mild. They’ll rise to the upper 50s to low 60s.

We’ll see nice weather Friday and Saturday as highs pressure builds in.  Then another system will drive rain into the region late Sunday into Monday and Tuesday.  It will be very cold in the Midwest, but we’ll be in the area of milder weather in the Southeast.  This setup could let a coastal low form next week, but the models aren’t showing much for now.  Stay tuned!

Be careful driving across the region today.  Have a safe and fun holiday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Fog, Drizzle, Thunderstorms…Happy Holidays!

December 23rd, 2014 at 8:50 am by under Weather

Now that more and more people are getting off of work and more kids are getting out of school for the holidays, it’s starting to sink in that the short-term forecast is not very merry.  Today was a rough start.  There was widespread fog, drizzle, and even some spotty showers.  Plus the temperatures were in the upper 30s to low 40s.  It’s tough to get out the door when it looks like this outside:

Tower Cam (Lynnhaven Inlet)

Tower Cam (Lynnhaven Inlet)

This was the most widespread fog that I’ve seen in a little over a year.  The fog will take a while to burn off too. Basically we have a lot of moisture in the region.  This is pushing into a cool airmass.  Also a very weak area of high pressure is trying to replace yesterday’s low.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The weak low will keep heading into the northeast states today.  It will cause rain and snow over several states.  Meanwhile another system is causing big problems in the Midwest.  heavy snow was falling over Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  It will move east into Illinois and Michigan later today.  Check your travel plans if you are flying or driving in that direction.

Locally, high pressure will try to dry us out a bit.  So we may see a few peeks of sunshine later today, but it won’t be much.  Temperatures will try to warm up to the low 50s, but if the morning trend continues then we may only see upper 40s for most cities.  Winds will be light and out of the west.

Tomorrow the winds will pick up out of the southwest (10-20mph).  The warm front will lift through the region.  So we’ll see a dramatic warmup.  In fact the record for tomorrow is 75 degrees (1891).  It is a long-standing record, and we will make a run for it.  For now I’m calling for low 70s, but we’ll see.  We’ll have scattered showers on and off through the day.  As we get the strong warming, we’ll develop some instability in the afternoon.  So expect some scattered thunderstorms.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

If we get some sunshine then we may be be looking at a chance for some severe weather.  Upper level winds will be pretty strong and surface moisture will be high.  The highest chance for bad weather would be in the evening as the cold front approaches from the west, but stay tuned.  Some scattered rain showers will continue into early Christmas morning.  I’m hoping that they will lift out by 7-8am, but we’ll see.  We will definitely dry out through the rest of Thursday.  It will be cooler, but still pretty mild. Highs will be in the mid-upper 50s.  Then we’ll have some nice weather Friday and Saturday.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s.  Unfortunately, the forecast has changed for Sunday.   It looks like another system will bring rain to the region.  Some of that could even linger into Monday.

So the weather won’t be too pretty for part of the holidays, but it could be worse.  We could have 2 feet of snow, and the whole area could shut down.  Course I think there are some folks that would love that.  So….

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Did Someone Wish For This Weather?

December 22nd, 2014 at 8:39 am by under Weather

Did someone wish for this weather?  Seriously?  Because we’ll see some nasty weather over the next couple of days, and it’s going to impact holiday travel and Christmas Eve as well.  Yikes!  So let’s detail what I’m talking about.

Today a weak area of low pressure is creeping north along the coast.  This has already brought widespread rain to the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is a high pressure zone to the west, but it will only be an innocent bystander in terms of our weather.  The low will creep north along the coast today. This will bring us rain through most of the day.

Future Trak (3pm Monday)

Future Trak (3pm Monday)

Along with the rain we’ll also see lots of clouds and a northeast breeze at 10-15mph.  So temperatures will be pretty much stuck in the 40s through the day.  Its should be too cool for any thunderstorms during this time.  We are looking at about 1 – 1.5″ of rain with a few spots reaching 2″.

Rain Forecast Through Tue.

Rain Forecast Through Tue.

By tonight the low will move to our north.  We’ll start drying out, but the clouds will probably hang around.  In fact I believe we’ll still see a lot of clouds tomorrow despite being in-between systems.  The low will move into the northeast states on Tuesday, but another system will be rolling through the Midwest.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

We’ll see lots of clouds tomorrow, but only a slim chance for a shower.  The sun will peak out in places. So we’ll warm up to the mid-upper 50s.  Winds will be light and variable.  The warm air that will lie to our southwest tomorrow will start to ooze in on Wednesday.  However, rain will ooze in with it.  So high temps will be in the 70s, but we’ll have scattered to occasional rain showers as well.

Future Trak (Wednesday 3pm)

Future Trak (Wednesday 3:40 pm)

Since it will be so warm and humid we’ll see a chance for thunderstorms.  I think the chance for storms will be pretty good.  Especially into Wednesday evening before the cold front moves in.  The timing of the front will be important.  Some models don’t have it moving in until overnight Wednesday.  Others have it moving in during the evening.  With the slower versions it could keep a chance of rain in the forecast until Christmas morning.  I am holding on to a low chance for rain until then.  I am wishing for it to move out by Christmas day though.  I may even write an email to Santa.  Regardless, it will be breezy on Christmas Day and cooler.  We will also dry out by midday Thursday.  Highs will be in the 50s with strong northwest winds.  Things won’t be too bad for Friday.  Highs will be in the 50s with fair skies and lighter winds.  Then we’ll have a mild weekend with fair skies. So that will be good for travel in the region.

Sorry that I can’t give a white Christmas forecast.  It will be snowy over parts of the Midwest and Northeast if you are traveling.  So check your plans if you are heading that way.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Quiet Weather…For Now!

December 18th, 2014 at 8:05 am by under Weather

We are in store for a stretch of cooler/quiet weather for the next few days.  Yesterday’s 50s and 60s will be replaced by highs in the 40s starting today.  High pressure is in the region.  So that’s where our quiet weather will come from.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll stay quiet for the next couple of days.  There will still be a system on Saturday that could bring a few showers, but the models have backed off the rain for the weekend a bit.  So (for now) it looks like just a few scattered showers Saturday afternoon/evening.  Then no rain on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few sprinkles to sneak back into the forecast for Sunday, but we’ll see.  Then on Monday we’ll have a higher chance for rain as a weak coastal low moves from south to north.  Early next week a large area of low pressure will form over the Midwest.  This is going to be an unusually large/strong area of low pressure.  It could bring a real mess to the Great Lakes and Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday.  Now it will stay to our north, but it will have a wide influence.  It will throw lots of windy/cold conditions our way.  There will also be a large upper level low sitting over us for a couple of days.  So by Christmas Eve it will be possible to see a few flurries.  It’s still very early to call something like that, but I’m sure some folks will be glued to the forecast until then.

Speaking of cold…There is a recent article out about how the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet.  This article from NPR news cites NOAA’s new research.  Here is the article: Rapid Arctic Warming

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler