Jeremy Wheeler

Record Heat & Tropical Storm Bill

June 16th, 2015 at 8:48 am by under Weather

Yesterday was rough.  Today is going to be rougher.  High temps on Tuesday reached the upper 90s in many locations.  Even Norfolk hit 97 degrees.

Highs Yesterday

Highs Yesterday

That actually tied the old record set back in 1885.  Today we will likely be a couple of degrees hotter.  So today we will see some 100′s in the area.  The record high at Norfolk International Airport is 96 degrees for today.  Norfolk will likely get to 99.  Our lovely Bermuda High/heat pump is in full swing.  We will see winds out of the west/southwest today at 8-12mph.  Dew points are in the low/mid 70s.  Skies are clearing a bit this morning, and they will become mostly sunny soon.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 90s to around  100 degrees.  Even temps near the shore will be in the 90s today.  It will only be right there next to the water where the cooler temps will lie. If I’m wrong about the winds, then a sea breeze could develop.  Keep that in mind.  Here’s my forecast for some of the local temperatures this afternoon:

Forecast High Temperatures

Forecast High Temperatures

The heat index will be between 100 and 109 degrees.  Williamsburg tends to run a little high, but I bet the heat index there will approach 110 today.  The light breeze out of the west should help a bit, but not much.  Now we may kick off some isolated showers and storms this afternoon.  We had a few rowdy storms on the Northern Neck, Eastern Shore, and Middle Peninsula yesterday evening.  There is a slightly higher chance for rain in those locations (30%). Whereas the chance for rain is only 20% elsewhere.

By tonight the cold front will move down into our region.  We’ll see some scattered showers and storms as the front moves through.   So by tomorrow the front will clear the region,  and it will stall out to our south.  Winds will be northeast at 5-10mph.  This will keep our highs in the mid-upper 80s.  Keep in mind that it will still be humid.  So the heat index will still be in the low 90s in the afternoon.  Better, but not a cool/crisp day by any means.  The front will move back north as a warm front on Thursday.  Highs will be back in the low 90s.  The heat index in the upper 90s.  We’ll basically be in the upper 80s to low 90s into the weekend with some scattered storms possible each day.  I’ll refine the weekend forecast as it gets closer.

In the Gulf of Mexico Tropical Storm Bill is making its way towards the Texas coast.  The winds had increased to 60mph around the mid morning.  It will make landfall just northeast of Corpus Christi.  Then it will move inland and weaken this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Bill

Tropical Storm Bill

The winds may cause some light damage, but the big problem will be the flooding and the rain.  Especially in the Houston Area.  A lot of Texas has had recent flooding over the past couple of months.  Houston had a major flood last month from non-tropical systems.  They have been preparing for this next round of flooding.  The rain has already started pouring in. That region could see over 6 inches of rain.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The rain will keep moving north towards Dallas, but the system will lose its strength.  Some of the moisture from the system may migrate our way by Friday, but the system will have fallen apart by then.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Near Record Heat

June 15th, 2015 at 8:35 am by under Weather

The heat has moved in early this year.  Believe it or not yesterday there was some relief.  The highs were in the upper 80s to low 90s.  However, the humidity was high for most of the day.  I was doing some yard work in the morning, and it was rough.   Yesterday afternoon/evening there were a few showers and storms around.  There were some boundaries in the region including a warm front. Today the warm front is to our north.  So we’ll only see some isolated/pop-up showers and storms this afternoon.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The breeze will only run out of the southwest at 5-10mph.  This could allow a sea breeze to form later today.  However, the water temperatures are really warming up.  So the breeze could be delayed a bit.  The water temperatures at the local beaches are in the low-mid 70s now, and some of the local waterways are running in the mid-upper 70s.  That is very early for those types of temperatures.  Wasn’t there ice on the Bay up until late February?  Wow!

The air temperatures are aiming for the mid-upper 90s this afternoon with some locations near the shore in the upper 80s to near 90. The record high for today at Norfolk International Airport is 97 degrees (1885).  The record high for tomorrow is 96 (1991).  We may break that record.  The heat index will be between 100-105 degrees this afternoon  This is not a good way to start Summer camp. Which many kids will do this week.  Skies will be partly cloudy.  Again, a few pop up storms are possible.

Tomorrow we’ll likely see more sunshine in the morning.  Therefore temps are forecast to rise to the upper 90s in more areas.  The heat index will be between 100 and 107.  There may be heat advisories issued for tomorrow afternoon.  The winds will change by Wednesday.  Highs will be more in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday and Thursday.  The rain chances will also go up later this week.  Overall the warm/hot weather looks to continue into next weekend.

Heat Forecast

Heat Forecast

In the tropics…there is a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that may become a tropical storm or depression soon.

Tropical Disturbance

Tropical Disturbance

There is a high chance of it forming according to the National Hurricane Center.  Tropical storm force winds have been registered north of the cluster of storms, but the disturbance is still disorganized (as of this writing).  Whether it officially forms or not, it is likely to move westward.  It may run as far south as Brownsville and as far north as Houston.  This situation could be a major problem for Texas as large areas of flooding are possible once again.  They have already had a lot of flooding recently up in the Midwest including some near my hometown.  Illinois Flooding.

Too bad we can’t bottle some of that up and send it to California.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


A.C.s Are Humming!

June 12th, 2015 at 7:49 am by under Weather

The air conditioners are working a little overtime lately.  The heat hasn’t broken any records, but the humidity is high for this time of year.  Dew points are in the low 70s.  High temperatures rose to the 90s for most of the region yesterday.

Yesterday's High Temperatures

Yesterday’s High Temperatures

Inland temps hit the mid 90s in several cities.  It was more in the 80s near the shore.  A sea breeze did form yesterday in the afternoon.  It cooled down parts of Norfolk and Virginia Beach, but the rest of the region just sizzled.  The breeze was only 5-10mph yesterday, but today it will be a bit stronger (8-12mph out of the southwest).  This may stop the sea breeze from forming.  10-15mph will usually keep the coolness over the water.  So we’ll see.  High pressure is over the region.  So we’ll see partly cloudy skies.  With all of the heat and humidity we may squeeze out a few pop-up showers and storms, but the chance for rain is very low.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

All of this continues tomorrow.  The only real difference is that a back-door cold front will move in tomorrow night.  This will increase the rain chances by the evening and overnight.  The front will decrease the temperatures on Sunday. Highs will be in the 80s.  It will still be warm inland, but not as bad as today.

The cold front will likely stall over or near the region from Sunday through early next week.  This could easily kick off some scattered showers and storms through Wednesday.  So unfortunately, we’ll have to take the weather day-by-day Sunday through Wednesday.  Stay tuned and have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Heat Index Going Up

June 11th, 2015 at 8:35 am by under Weather

Heat and humidity.  That’s the big story for the next couple of days.  High pressure has built into the region.  We have a typical weather pattern called the Bermuda or Azores high setting up.  This is where the a large area of high pressure basically sits offshore for days (or even months) pumping in the heat from the southern U.S.  Winds are out of the southwest today, but they are very light (5-10mph).

Bermuda High

Bermuda High

So the heat and humidity will increase today.  Highs will be in the low 90s.  Dew Points are in the upper 60s.  This will put the heat index or “feels like temperature” up into the mid-upper 90s.  The bad news (if you hate heat) is that this weather pattern will continue for the next couple of days.

Temp & Heat Index Forecast

Temp & Heat Index Forecast

This will impact a lot of outdoor workers.  Plus, some kids are just getting out of school for the year.
Whatever you are doing…remember to:

1. Drink plenty of fluids, especially water.

2. Take breaks if you are working or doing outdoor activities

3.  Wear light-weight/light-colored clothing

This isn’t the biggest heat wave, but it is a bit early.  It’s not even Summer yet.  Plus, the heat indices will be fairly high for this time of year.  A cold front is expected to move through between Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. This will bring us scattered showers and storms along with a cool down.  The timing may change on that, so stay tuned.  Sunday’s forecast high temperatures are in the mid 80s.

Try to stay cool.  Hopefully, you can hit the pool or beach.  There’s a low threat for rip currents today.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


It Ain’t Summer Yet

June 10th, 2015 at 7:46 am by under Weather

It’s not Summer yet…technically.  The first day of Summer is on June 21st this year at 12:38pm EDT.  However, we’ll see some pretty Summery weather over the next few days.  A cool front has moved through the region, but it is falling apart.

Cool Front

Cool Front

High pressure is building in from the west.  So we are seeing clearing skies.  Yesterday the high temps were in the upper 80s to low 90s.  Today we’ll be more in the mid-upper 80s.  You most likely won’t notice the cool down as we have lost our breeze.  Yesterday it was out of the southwest at 10-15mph.  Today it will be variable at 5-10.  It should turn a little more easterly by the afternoon.

Tomorrow the winds turn out of the south.  So hello heat-wave.   Highs will be in the low 90s.  However, it will also be pretty humid. So the heat index will be in the mid-upper 90s.  Skies will be partly cloudy with only a stray shower or storm in the whole region.  This will continue into Saturday.  Then we may see a few showers and storms popping up by Sunday and Monday afternoons.  Stay tuned for updates.

I found this interesting article about a current conflict between some climatologists and environmentalists about a planned sediment study.  There are a few groups that are hoping to study sediment cores from the last 60 million years to better understand how the shoreline has changed off of New Jersey.  Apparently the study will use sound waves along the ocean floor.  Environmentalists and some citizens are concerned about wildlife and possible noise from the study.  Here is the article with more information: Sediment Study.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


June Heat Coming

June 9th, 2015 at 8:35 am by under Weather

Before I talk about the heat.  Let’s talk about the rain this morning.  Scattered showers and storms formed over central Virginia/North Carolina yesterday evening (as expected).  They were forecast to move into our region and die down to just some spotty showers by this morning.  Instead they held up, and they produced some heavy showers early this morning.

Radar This Morning

Radar This Morning

The showers ended around 7:30am, and the sun is starting to pop out as I write this.  At the same time, there is a cool front out to the west over West Virginia.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll be ahead of the front through most of the day.  Then it will move through this evening.  Again…we’ll see some quiet weather for the midday hours.  Then some scattered showers and storms will pop up ahead of the front in the late afternoon into the evening.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

These showers and storms may hold off until the evening as this morning’s showers may stabilize things for a while.  (That’s through subsidence or sinking air behind them). Tomorrow the front will hang-up and fall apart over northeast North Carolina.  There may be a shower or two in the region, but the rain chances look low at this time.  Then high pressure will build in for Thursday and Friday.

Ok..let’s talk temperatures.  Today with some midday clearing expected, temps will rise to the upper 80s with low 90s inland.  It is going to be hot and humid, but at least there will be a breeze.  It will be out of the southwest at 10-15mph.   Behind the cool front tomorrow we’ll see light easterly winds.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Then the front is forecast to fall apart over northeast North Carolina tomorrow.  That’s when some heat will build-in from the west.  On Thursday and Friday high temps will rise to the low 90s with some mid 90s inland.  The heat index will likely be in the upper 90s.  The heat will continue into Saturday, and it could even linger beyond that.  Stay tuned.  this could be a medium-sized June heat wave.  The average high temperature is about 82 degrees for this time of year.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Turning Up The Heat

June 8th, 2015 at 7:56 am by under Weather

We had a cool start to the day this morning as temps dropped down to the 50s inland.  This will be as cool as it gets this week.  We’ll be warming up for the next few days.  Look at the high temperature forecast:

Temperature Trend

Temperature Trend

Today and tomorrow we’ll be in the upper 80s.  Temps will drop a tad on Wednesday behind a cool front.  Then we’ll be soaring into the 90s Thursday and Friday.  The average high for this time of year is in the low 80s.  Today we have high pressure in the region.  So we are looking good.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll have a southwest breeze, and a warm front will brush the region.  Between that and the sunshine, temps will warm up this afternoon.  By tomorrow the cool front (now in the Midwest) will move into the region.  We’ll see some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing later in the day.

Future Trak (3pm Tuesday)

Future Trak (3pm Tuesday)

The front will likely get hung up to our south on Wednesday.  So we will still have a few isolated showers in the region.  Then we’ll dry out Thursday and Friday as the heat builds in from the west.

In world news… A new study has come out recently that focuses on how the Atlantic weather pattern may have more of an influence on the long-term Atlantic ocean currents than previously thought.  The study comes from the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom.  Here is the link: Jet Stream Steers Atlantic Currents.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


It’s Outta Here!…Well, Not Quite.

June 5th, 2015 at 8:34 am by under Weather

Over the past few days we’ve racked up the rainfall.  It’s been a welcome rain, but I think many are ready for it to go.  Here are the latest 24 hour rain totals in the region:

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

I have two weather watchers (Greg in Currituck and Donna in southern Virginia Beach).  They have both had 4″ of rain in the last 4 days.  Barry my weather watcher in Gloucester has had over 6″ of rain.  And Brian in Smithfield has had over 5″.  Here are some of the 24 hour rainfall totals:

24Hour Rain Totals

24Hour Rain Totals

This morning we still had a lot of drizzle in the region, but the showers have finally decreased.

Part of the reason for this lingering rain is found in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Satellites in space can detect the water vapor up thousands of feet in the sky.  This can allow us to see these upper level systems kind of like an x-ray.  However, it uses a different radiation (and passive) to detect them.  Here is the view of our pesky upper level low:

Water Vapor satellite Image

Water Vapor satellite Image

It may be hard to see without this in motion, but it’s there. And it will slowly push out to sea through the afternoon.  Very Slowly!

At the same time the stationary front at the surface is slowly drifting offshore as well. High pressure is trying to nudge in from the west.

Stationary Front Offshore

Stationary Front Offshore

So through the day we’ll only see some spotty showers in the region.  The morning drizzle and fog will dry up.  We’ll even see a few peeks of sunshine.  Highs will be in the 70s with a north/northeast breeze.  There may be a few spotty showers for the Parade of Sail, but I’m hoping they miss the Elizabeth River during the event.  Cross your fingers.

By tomorrow the high will be closer to us.  There will be a cool front that will try to move through late in the day.  Because of this there will be some spotty showers in the afternoon. Perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm.  However, the rain chances should be pretty low.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The breeze will be out of the northeast.  Highs will be in the upper 70s.  As we get into Sunday the front will clear the region, and the high will build in.  So we’ll see fair skies and highs near 80.  We’ll stay dry on Monday.  Then we’ll see another cold front with some showers and storms on Tuesday.

Along with Harborfest this weekend, there is also a big sand soccer tournament in Virginia Beach.  I’ll be down at Harborfest at noon – 2:30pm on Saturday.  Then I will be at the Farm Fresh near Hampton Coliseum on Sunday from 11am – 1pm.  Whatever you are doing…Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


When Will This Rain End?

June 4th, 2015 at 8:27 am by under Weather
Tower Cam

Tower Cam

Rain continues in the region. It’s almost become a case of “Be careful what you wish for”.  We needed rain for so long.  Now we are dealing with ponding on roads, traffic slow downs, and even some localized flooding in the region.  The heavy rain continued this morning.  In fact it picked up quite a bit from last night.

Radar This Morning

Radar This Morning

Pockets of heavy rain moved through steadily from the south.  These showers will continue through most of the morning.  Yesterday during the midday show, the computer models started to show this heavy rain for this morning, and they upped the rain totals forecast.   In fact…just since last night we picked up a little over an inch of rain from Chesapeake down to Currituck.  (Some of the totals below are from yesterday).

Rain Totals As Of 7:30am

Rain Totals As Of 7:30am

Rain showers will continue today, but the rain should break up a bit through the afternoon.

Future Trak (3pm Today)

Future Trak (3pm Today)

We will likely add another quarter to half inch of rain on top of the earlier totals.  However, some cities will get over an inch added.  That will be those areas that have those scattered downpours.  By tomorrow the low, the front, and the upper level system will be a little more east.  So we’ll see more breaks in the rain.

Future Trak (Friday)

Future Trak (Friday)

High pressure will build in a little from the west, but it won’t be too close just yet.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The good news is that all this will shift east even more by Saturday.  So I only have some isolated showers possible for that day along with partly cloudy skies.  We’ll see fair weather on Sunday and Monday.  Then another cold front will enter the region Tuesday into Wednesday.  We’ll see more scattered showers along that front.

Temperatures… Today we’ll see highs in the mid-upper 70ss.  Tomorrow highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80.  Low 80s then for Saturday into next Monday.

One last thing.  The northeast wind will only run at about 10mph today.  It hasn’t been too strong.  However, we are in full moon.  So a little bit of nuisance tidal flooding is possible during high tide.  It may turn into one of those situations where the drains get full with the tidewater.  Then the rain has no where to go.  This won’t be too bad if the showers become more scattered by midday.  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

 


Soggy AM Commute

June 4th, 2015 at 6:06 am by under Weather

Well… The models started to trend wetter for this morning around midday yesterday.  They were right.  We have some heavy downpours in the region mixing in with the larger area of light rain.  An upper level low is sitting right on top of us.  Also a weak area of low pressure has formed at the surface just to our south.  So the rain is getting enhanced this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll see some ponding on roads, but I still don’t think the rain will be as bad as Tuesday.  Rain will continue through this morning. It should let up a bit by this afternoon as the low slowly moves offshore.  (Again…keep in mind that it is weak).  High pressure will build in slightly tomorrow.  This will reduce the rain chances.  Then it will build in even more over the weekend.  Good news for the local events.

This is just a quick blog.  I’ll have a longer one with more information out by 9am this morning.

 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler