Jeremy Wheeler

I’m Back! Now The Forecast…

April 13th, 2015 at 9:14 am by under Weather

After a week off with the kids, I am back.  It was Spring Break last week, and I was home most of the time.  I got to work on some small projects around the house.  Then on Friday we went out to Luray Caverns and a Safari Zoo in western Virginia.  It was a good time.  Here are two photos of our trip.

Buffalo During Safari

Buffalo During Safari

In the safari area you actually get to drive out amongst the animals.  This was right outside my vehicle.  I actually didn’t get a close shot, but they do come right up to you and eat from a food bucket in your window.  It’s exciting, but can be a little unnerving at times.  Also there are many cave systems in western Virginia.  Again this was in Luray:

Cavern Wide Shot

Cavern Wide Shot

Now that I’m back we, are looking at some nice weather today.  High pressure is in control.  So we’ll see lots of sunshine and highs in the mid 70s.  Winds will be southeast at 5-10mph.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Notice though that there is some wet weather to our west.  In fact they could be looking at some flooding over parts of the deep south today.  That system will move east through tomorrow.  Moisture will increase in our region.  We may see a stray shower or two tonight, but rain chances will really increase through the day tomorrow.  Highs will be in the upper 60s as a cold front moves-in and stalls-out in the region.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

A weak area of low pressure will move along the front.  This will enhance the chance for rain in the late afternoon/early evening.  With the cooler temperatures around, I don’t think we’ll see any severe weather, but we will have to see how far south the front gets before stalling.  If it stalls a little farther north, then that threat could be raised over North Carolina.  In the meantime, here is what Future Trak shows for the rain tomorrow evening:

Future Trak (Tuesday Evening)

Future Trak (Tuesday Evening)

Rain will continue through the evening, but should end overnight.  Rain will impact the evening commute tomorrow.  It could really slow things down.  It will add up in the rain bucket too.  At this time, Future Trak forecasts for 1-2″ of rain in the area.

Rain Totals forecast

Rain Totals forecast

This could lead to some localized flooding.  So stay tuned for updates.  We’ll dry out on Wednesday, but temps will run a little cool for mid April. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.  The average high is 67.  Then we’ll warm up on Thursday, but a few showers will try to move back in.  More rain is possible on Friday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


The Pattern Changes

April 3rd, 2015 at 7:19 am by under Weather

Finally! Our long-term weather pattern is changing.  Instead of a huge dip in the jetsream and cold temperatures over the eastern U.S., we now have a flatter/warmer pattern.  Today we’ll warm up nicely.  Highs are going to hit near 80 degrees.  High pressure is in control, but there is a stationary front to our north.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This setup will do several things for our weather.  With the high offshore and the front to the north there will be some strong southwest winds between them today.  Remember pressure is typically lower along a front.  So there is a difference in the pressure over us today.  So the winds will run at 10-20mph out of the southwest with gusts up to 30mph.  Small craft advisories will be in effect for boaters.  Also, there will be quite a bit of rain showers along the front moving to the east.  As they move into the high, most of them should fall apart.  However, a couple of spotty showers may survive into our viewing area. So there are low-end rain chances for us today. I’d say about 20-25%.  By the evening the front will become a cold front and head towards Hampton Roads.  It won’t get here until very late tonight/early tomorrow morning.  This will increase the rain chances a bit.  Then tomorrow morning as the front swings through, we’ll see some scattered showers.  They should taper off by the late morning.  Temps will not drop much tonight due to the front timing.  Then tomorrow the winds will turn out of the northwest.  So temps will pretty much hold in the low 60s.  We will dry out in the afternoon.

Easter is still looking good.  We’ll see temps in the 40s in the morning and sunshine.  Should be good for Easter egg hunts and services.  Then the afternoon will be sunny with highs in the mid 60s.  We’ll see the warmer pattern continue into next week. Highs will be in the 70s for many days.  There will be some rain around next Wednesday/Thursday.

Have a good weekend.  Enjoy the warmer weather.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Frosty Morning, Then A Quick Warmup!

April 2nd, 2015 at 7:47 am by under Weather

This morning was rather cold for early April.  The winds went calm last night.  Plus we had clear skies in the region.  This let the temperatures fall to the low 30s in several cities.

Temps This Morning

Temps This Morning

We have some very dry air in place today. Dew points are in the low 30s.  Maybe even a few upper 20s.  That is bone-dry for this time of year!

Regional Dew Points

Regional Dew Points

Winds will pick up out of the south today.  High pressure is centered offshore, but will be close enough to produce a lot of sunshine.  A warm front was approaching from the west.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

All of these ingredients will help to create rapid warming today.  It will be very similar to Tuesday’s weather.  Temps will rise into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees this afternoon. Dress in layers.  We won’t cool down too much tonight.  Winds will stay up out of the south and dew points will rise a bit.  So lows will be in the 50s.  Tomorrow we’ll leap frog from the morning temps up to 80 degrees for a high.  We’ll see partly cloudy skies.  Rain should hold off until the evening.  Winds will be very strong out of the south/southwest.  They will run at 15-25mph with gusts up to 30mph.  This will also aid in the warming.

A cold front will move through the area Friday night.  This will bring some scattered showers into Hampton Roads.  The rain will continue into Saturday morning, but it should clear out by the afternoon. Highs will be near 60 on Saturday.   We are still looking good for Easter Sunday.  Lows will be near 40.  Highs will be in the low 60s with sunshine.

Before I go…You’ve probably heard about the update in California about the recent drought.  The governor has issued mandatory restrictions on water usage across the state.  This is historic.  Here is an article with more information on the subject: California Drought And Water Restrictions.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


It’s HOT out! APRIL FOOLS!

April 1st, 2015 at 7:46 am by under Weather

Yesterday was great.  We had a lot of sunshine with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.  I did the annual first cutting of the grass during the afternoon.  It was awesome!  The weather…not the grass.  A little breezy, but nice.  Last night a cold front swiped through the area.  This brought a couple of quick/spotty showers.  They moved out as fast as they moved in.  It probably didn’t even add up to a tenth of an inch.  So by this morning they were well south of the area along with the cold front.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

So we’ll be cooler today with highs in the mid 50s.  Winds will be breezy out of the north at 10-20mph.  They may let up a little this afternoon.  Some inland locations will likely rise to near 60 degrees.  Tomorrow the high pressure system swings offshore, a warm front will lift through the region, and winds will turn out of the south.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

High temps will be in the upper 60s to near 70.  The nice weather will resume.  By Friday temps will keep rising.  We’ll get into the upper 70s.  Clouds will build on Friday, but the rain should hold off until the evening.  Scattered showers will move in by Friday night and will continue into Saturday morning.  High temps will drop to near 60 on Saturday.  Luckily on Sunday we’ll see a lot of sunshine. Highs will be in the low 60s.   It will be a little cool in the morning for services and Easter egg hunts (low/mid 40s),  but it shouldn’t be anything that a light jacket won’t fix.

The pollen is worse today.  I’m really starting to feel it now.  The allergy medicines are increasing along with the pollen.  It should be in full force by the weekend into next week.  The pollen really starts to collect when the pine trees let it go.  For now some of the lighter pollen will start to collect.  The yellow cars will start to show up over the next couple of weeks.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Could It Be? Warm & Dry At The Same Time?

March 31st, 2015 at 8:15 am by under Weather

Yep!  Warm and dry on the same day.  How bout that? We haven’t had too much of that lately.  This morning it was sunny, but it was also pretty chilly.  Here was the view from our tower cam in Virginia Beach:

Tower Cam

Tower Cam

Temps managed to drop to the low/mid 30s inland with upper 30s elsewhere.  This time of year, when you have a lot of dry air,  you can really warm up the temps during the afternoons; and you can cool them down quite a bit at night.  Basically in very dry air the solar energy goes directly into heating the air.  Whereas in humid air more of the energy is used up to try and warm the air and the water vapor.  So today high pressure and dry air will provide for plenty of sunshine.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Southwest winds will pick up at 10-20mph.  This will also contribute to the rapid warming.  So highs will aim for the upper 60s to near 70.  This will be a 30+ rise in temps compared to the morning lows.  We’ll stay dry through the whole day.  Many will probably take advantage and mow their lawns.  By 9pm tonight the cold front that currently is in the Midwest will drop into our region.  We’ll see some spotty showers, but it shouldn’t add up to much.  It should only be a tenth of an inch at most.  That’s good news because a lot of farmer fields and sports fields need to dry out.  I’ve heard many games and practices have been cancelled over the past month due to the weather and the wet fields.  Oddly enough…I looked up the latest rainfall totals.  Norfolk International Airport has had 3.57″ of rain this month.  That is actually 0.88″ below average.  Plus we are down 1.22″ for the year.  That is shocking, but…Keep in mind that we had a surplus when you factor in the snow from February.  Plus, there has been a lot of days with rain, but there weren’t too many days where the rain was heavy.

Tomorrow we will be dry, but quite a bit cooler. Highs will be in the low/mid 50s.  Temps may even be cooler near the shore.  Winds will be out of the north at about 10-20mph.  Then by Thursday we’ll already warm up again. Highs will be back in the upper 60s.  By Friday we’ll warm up even more.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 70s.  However, some rain showers will move in late Friday into Saturday.  We are still looking dry for Easter Sunday.  After a cool morning temps will warm to near 60 in the afternoon.

By the way…the pollen is up today.  It is about an 7 or 8 out of 10.  It’s starting to affect me a little.  I just put in some allergy eye drops.  When it gets pretty bad, then I’ll do my annual how to beat the pollen blog.  Probably in the next couple of weeks.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Increasing Temps…Increasing Pollen

March 30th, 2015 at 9:33 am by under Weather

I think a lot of folks want to put this last weekend’s weather behind us.  I was out at a yard sale Saturday morning, and it was raw outside.  Windy, cold….There were snow flurries.  At least the sun came out yesterday and the winds finally died down in the afternoon.  However, we are looking at a nice warmup this week.  It all starts today.   We had a nice southwest wind overnight.  This allowed temps to warm a bit last night.  So we started the morning in the low/mid 40s. We also had some clouds move in which helped.  The scattered showers picked up in the region ahead of a cool front.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Today the front is more like a wind-shift line than a cold front.  The temps aren’t much cooler to the north of it.  Winds are southwest this morning.  As the boundary comes through the winds will shift more out of the west.  They will run at 10-20mph.  So these winds will allow temps to rise to the upper 50s to near 60 this afternoon.  The rain will be here through the morning and midday, but then it should move out.

Future Trak (Noon today)

Future Trak (Noon today)

We should see some partial clearing in the afternoon. That should also add to the warming.  However, the models do hint at a few sprinkles this evening around 5pm.  all-in-all we are only looking at a couple tenths of an inch of rain.

Tonight we’ll clear out.  Lows will drop to the low 40s.  Tomorrow….ahhhh tomorrow… We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 5-15mph.  Now there is another cold front (a real one this time) coming in Tuesday night.  This may prompt a quick shower, but it shouldn’t be much.  Then we’ll cool down on Wednesday. Highs will be in the low/mid 50s.  We’ll already warm back up on Thursday to the upper 60s.  Skies will be partly cloudy.  On Friday we’ll see highs in the 70s, but scattered showers will move in as well.  Rain is expected on Saturday, but we’ll dry out for Easter Sunday. Highs will be in the 60s on Saturday and mid 50s on Sunday.

So far the pollen hasn’t been too bad.  I did notice last Friday though that as the rain came down there was some pollen mixing in with it on the vehicles. Then we had the cold blast this weekend, and I think the trees paused.  The pollen has had a slightly slower start this year as the temps have been unseasonably cool/cold.  However, this upcoming week the trees will bud and bloom.  I believe they are poised to let the pollen go. Today the pollen is a 6 out of 10.  Mold has probably been a problem for some folks as the rain and cool temperatures have led to a favorable environment.  I’m not a botanist, but this is based off of things that I’ve observed and studied over the years.  Here is a site with more information on how trees pollinate.  Tree pollen.   (WARNING: It has some material that may not be suitable for little kids as it talks about the birds and the bees….and the trees.) I assure you though it is scientific in nature.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cold Rain! Boo!

March 27th, 2015 at 7:57 am by under Weather

Before I get to today’s weather blog, I wanted to mention that meteorologist Don Slater did a blog last night about the new Convective Outlooks (Severe Weather Risk Graphics) that are now put out from the Storm Prediction Center.  It is a bit controversial when you factor in how different meteorologists present it, but it is something that we will be dealing with nonetheless.  I’m not a big fan of the new structure.  I think there are too many levels now.  I also think the word enhanced is at the wrong tier.  However, I do like that SPC tried to be more specific in their forecast.   The problem arises when meteorologists change the wording in their presentation (which is allowed).  I think with some tweaking and more discussion, we will get to a more unified message.

Anyway, today we won’t see thunderstorms, but we will see a cold rain.  This morning we started with temps in the 60s. Then temps dropped to the 40s and 50s.  The cold front is moving through northeast North Carolina as I write this.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Through they day the rain will increase.   We’ll see scattered to occasional showers.

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

At the same time strong northerly winds (10-20mph with gusts to 25mph) will keep dropping the temperatures.  So by the afternoon our temperatures will only be in the low/mid 40s.

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Temperatures

Keep in mind that it will feel like it is in the 30s with the wind chills.  So make sure you take an umbrella, rain jacket, and maybe even a coat and scarf.  It will be wet for the evening commute as well.  Rain should taper off later this evening.  During the overnight we will hold on to a weak chance for a few showers.  Temps will drop to the mid 30s with a few 40s near the shore.  By tomorrow morning we should dry out quite a bit.  However, some upper level energy will still be around.  This could bring us a few sprinkles, flurries, and/or sleet pellets in the morning.  The trend has been drier on this.  That is good news for some of the weekend events.  I know there are a couple of Easter events already this weekend.  Highs will only be in the 40s on Saturday with a drying afternoon.  Then on Sunday we’ll start with temps in the low 30s.  We’ll rise to the upper 40s with sunshine.  We might see some 50s mixing in as well.

Next week is looking pretty good. We’ll see a lot of 50s and 60s.  We’ll have a nice dry stretch until Thursday.  Rain will move back in by Thursday, but at least we’ll get up to 70 degrees.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Warm With Some Storms, Then Cold Rain!

March 26th, 2015 at 8:37 am by under Weather

Walking out the door wasn’t too bad this morning. Even at the hour that I leave.  We bottomed out in the 50s and 60s this morning.  A warm front has moved into the region.  Plus we had clouds and a good southerly breeze.  At the same time a strong cold front was moving across the Mississippi River Valley.  It caused severe weather and tornadoes across parts of the Plains states.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Today you will notice the humidity increasing.  Dew points are already rising into the the 50s.  We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds through the day.  When the sun does pop out, the temps should shoot up.  So I’m calling for highs in the upper 70s.  Winds will be out of the south at 10-20mph with a few higher gusts.  Keep in mind that any wind off of the water will be a cooling wind.  Water temps are in the 40s right now.  So places like Cape Charles, Hampton, and some Outer Banks Cities will stay cool due to that effect.  We’ve already seen some scattered showers.  These will continue into the afternoon.  It will be warm and humid enough that we’ll see some thunderstorms forming later today.

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

The chance for severe weather is very low.  However, we could see some gusty winds as a wind-shift line moves through Hampton Roads.  The highest rain chances will be between noon and 4pm.  Rain will taper off this evening.  Then it will return after midnight.  The cold front will swipe through the area tonight.  Temps will drop sharply.  We’ll bottom out in the upper 40s.  Then we’ll stay in the 40s through tomorrow.  The rain will actually pick up in coverage behind the front.  Typically we dry out behind a front, but sometimes the moisture lingers.  Also a strong upper level trough will dig into the region.  Between today through tomorrow night we could see a half inch up to an inch of rain.  Most of that will fall tomorrow.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The showers will taper off, but will continue into Friday night.  By Saturday morning surface temps will drop to the low 30s.  The upper level trough will still be swinging through, but we will dry out quite a bit by then.  So there is a chance for a few showers, flurries, and sleet pellets in the morning, but it shouldn’t be much.  Maybe an isolated snow shower as well, but limited in area.  The ground temps will be well above freezing.  So anything that falls should melt.  Highs will only be in the low 40s by the afternoon. That is downright cold for this time of year.  We’ll stay chilly on Sunday with sunshine.  Highs will be in the upper 40s.  Then we’ll warm things up next week into the 50s and 60s.  It should be quiet for most of the week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Ready For Warmth!

March 25th, 2015 at 8:47 am by under Weather

I am ready for some warm air.  Luckily…it’s here…starting today.  At least for a short while.  We started with temps in the low 40s this morning with lots of clouds in the region.  I saw a sprinkle or two on the radar, but there wasn’t much with that.  High pressure was slowly edging away from us to the northeast while a warm front was closing in from the southwest.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The warm front will lift through late in the day.  This will bring us a few more sprinkles, but it will also warm us up.  Winds will be light and ENE this morning.  They will turn more out of the southeast through the late afternoon.  Skies will go between partly to mostly cloudy.  With the occasional breaks in the clouds we should manage to warm up to the upper 50s to low 60s.  There will probably be some mid 60s over North Carolina.  Tomorrow we’ll be in the warm sector.  Remember, that is the area south of the warm front and east of the cold front.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Temperatures will get to rise up to the mid 70s in many locations.  We’ll see scattered showers at times with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.  It won’t rain the whole day though.  There will be some time when you can get outside and enjoy the warmth.  Winds will run out of the south at 10-20mph.  By tomorrow evening the strong cold front will move in from the west.  We’ll actually see the rain pick up behind the front.  So as the air cools on Friday, we’ll see scattered to occasional rain showers.  A huge upper level trough will ride in behind the surface cold front late Friday into Saturday morning.  If some moisture lingers, like the models are showing, then we’ll have a chance for some flurries and/or mixed precipitation Saturday morning.  Maybe even a light snow shower or two.  This will greatly depend on the amount of moisture around.  The models disagree on this feature.  At this time no model has any big snow in the region or even moderate snow.  There’s still some time before we get there.  I would bet that the air will modify a bit before it drops this far south.  So the models may start to reflect that in some of the short-term updates.  At this time it looks like temps will start in the low 30s in the morning and will only top off in the low 40s Saturday afternoon.  We’ll be dry and chilly on Sunday.  We’ll start in the 30s and highs will be in the 40s once again.  It will be warmer into early next week.

Before I go I wanted you to see a couple of really cool things.  First off…early this month there was a waterspout which made it onto a beach in Brazil.  It really whipped things up as it moved onshore.  I’ve never see a video like this.  Here is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0GuRSwtMvo

Also, I found this recent article about the northern lights.  It is a timelapse of several auroras around the world.  Here is that link: http://mashable.com/2015/03/17/aurora-display/

Enjoy!

It’s really cool that we get to see things recorded like that.  It is a lot more prominent now that most people have smart phones that can take video.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Just A Bit O’ Heat

March 24th, 2015 at 8:32 am by under Weather

It’s a bit draining to deliver the message.  Another cold day, another rainy day, etc.  Don’t get me wrong.  We’ve had a couple of nice days here and there.  But we haven’t had a decent stretch of mild/dry weather in a while. This is the time of year when we get antsy.  We hear that it’s officially Spring, so our minds tend to think that it should just automatically warm up.  That’s usually not the case here in this region though.  We’ve had plenty of cold Marches, and I remember snow in April during the past 10 years.  2007 comes to mind, and I think we had some in either 08′ or 09′ as well.  It is possible to see some flurries in our forecast this weekend, but it’s still a bit early to call that.

First let’s talk about today.  We have an area of high pressure in the region, but we did have a weak mid-level disturbance bring a few sleet pellets and flurries early this morning.  That has pushed out to sea now.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy today.  There will be a breeze out of the northeast, but it won’t be as strong as yesterday.  It will also try to turn a little more from the east.  Highs will be in the upper 40s.  There will probably be a few 50s inland.  In the mean time there is some heat building to our west.  Look at the forecast high temperatures from the GFS model today:

Forecast High Temps

Forecast High Temps

Highs will be in the 50s, 60s, and 70s (orange areas) to our southwest.  This heat is ready to move into our region.  Tonight that move will start to happen.  We’ll still be cool here with lows in the 30s, but temps may rise a bit overnight.  There will be some scattered showers caused by overrunning.  Tomorrow the winds will be more out of the east/southeast.  So we’ll warm up to the upper 50s to low 60s.  A few of the rain showers will linger into tomorrow morning, but they should move out by the mid morning hours.  So Wednesday afternoon should be fairly nice.  The winds will be stronger and more southerly on Thursday.  A warm front will have moved through the region.  So high temperatures will make a run for the mid 70s.  While the temps will be awesome, the rain chances will also be up.  So we’ll see scattered showers through the day with some thunderstorms even during the afternoon.  A strong cold front will move through by Thursday evening.  Then cold air will keep pouring-in into Friday.  Highs will be in the low 50s (which isn’t too bad), but temps will keep dropping.  We’ll be in the low 30s by Friday night.  Then highs will only be in the low 40s on Saturday.  Now there will be some scattered rain showers again on Friday.  Then on Friday night the temps will drop enough to produce a few flurries or sleet pellets.  This will be along with some spotty showers.  The jetstream will take a large dip (trough) over our area.  So this will help to produce a little bit of precip.  The models don’t show much at this time, but it will be something to watch.

We’ll dry out for the rest of Saturday into Sunday.  We’ll still be chilly on Sunday with highs in the 40s again.  This is important because there are some Eastern egg hunts already this weekend.  So check back for updates to the timing of the precip as well as the temps.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler