Ok folks.  I braved the way into the station this morning.  It’s bad out there.  If you have an appointment or meeting tonight, then you need to cancel it.  Tomorrow…cancel it.  Yes some folks will make it through.  Interstates have been doing fine.  But I’m getting a lot of reports that the secondaries are still flooded and we are at low tide.  When we hit high tide this evening those roads will add on another foot to foot and a half.  This morning’s high tide was about 6.7ft at Sewell’s Point.  Tonight’s high tide will be between 7.5 – 7.8 ft.  Ths is just below Hurricane Isabel’s levels.  Here is the latest tide forecast/history from the National Weather Service:

I don’t have the actual tide from Gloucester Point, but Yorktown got up to about 6ft this morning.  The tide there this evening will be around 6.5ft -7.2ft.  (rough estimate)  This is above Mean Lower Water.  Basically that’s the height above the lowest tide possible for the area.  I know it’s confusing, but at least you can relate each number to the other.   Wachapreague got up to about 7ft this morning.  The next high tides will only be about 7.5ft or a tad more there.  This is considered moderate tidal flooding.  Jon had been saying that the Eastern shore wouldn’t be as bad as the southside due to the direction the wind is coming from.   The Outer Banks tidal flooding shouldn’t be too bad on the south end (Rodanthe, Hatteras), but overwash is possible from Nags Head Northward. 

I don’t have the tide during Ernesto in 06′, but the tide at Sewell’s Point during the Thanksgiving Nor’easter of 06′ was 6.77ft. 

On top of the tidal flooding we are getting general flooding from the heavy and persistent rain.  Weather watchers are calling in rain totals over 8″.  Greg in Currituck recorded 11″ for a storm total.  Scott in Pembroke, VA Beach recorded 9″ total.  Ed in Williamsburg has received 5.7″ so far.   This is adding to the flooding problems. 

I just checked the main rivers.  The Blackwater River in Franklin is forecast to crest at 9.3ft  on Saturday.  Flood stage is 12ft.  The Nottoway Creek at Sebrell is forecast to reach 10.7ft.  Flood stage is 16ft.  If you live on another River and have some conditions, then please leave a comment below.  So they are looking pretty good with less rain than we recieved on the southside and in North Carolina. 

The winds will gradually taper off Friday afternoon.  The winds could still gust to 55mph near the shore through tomorrow morning. 

Be safe everyone.  Please don’t head out.  You may get stuck as many city blocks have low points.  You may be able to get in to a location, but not get out.  I’ll try and update again later this evening. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

While I like to keep the blogs on a fun tone with an occasional joke.  Today is not that day.  A Nor’easter is forecast to develop southeast of our area and sit for 3-4 days.  With the high pressure area to the north we are going to get the usual squeeze play between the different pressures (pressure gradient force).  This will give us persistent winds out of the Northeast/East for several tidal cycles.  Winds will be running 15-30mph with higher gusts near the shore.  Here is the forecast map for Wednesday afternoon from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC):

A Coastal flood watch is up for all Atlantic/Bay coastal cities in the viewing area tomorrow through Thursday.  This could get extended into Friday.  Jon Cash showed a graphic with his latest thinking at midday as far as tidal flooding.  He mentioned that Hurricane Isabel produced a water rise of 7.9ft.  Severe flooding starts at about 7ft.  At the low threshold the water with this Nor’easter may rise up between 6-7ft.  At his higher threshold the water could rise above Isabel’s level (possibly).   Here is the latest forecast for the tide at Sewell’s Point from the National Weather Service.

The tallest black hump early Friday is what should grab your attention.  That’s about 7.2ft.  Now I guarantee you this forecast will change.  It is based off of a lot of factors (wind, tides, surge, etc.).  According to Jon Cash the Ash Wednesday Storm produced a water rise of 9ft.  We probably won’t see that, but there has been a lot of coastal development since then.  We will probably see a lot of beach erosion along the Outer Banks. 

  On top of the tides and winds we will also have to deal with the rainfall.  Here is the forecast for rain totals from HPC for Tuesday through Friday:

Several inches of rain are forecast for Southeast Virginia.  We could see a possible 5-7 inches across parts of Northeast North Carolina.  If the track of the low changes, then these numbers will shift around.  A Flood Watch is posted, due to rainfall, for most of the viewing area through Thursday.  So this rain could also aid in the flooding.  The rivers could discharge a little more into the Chesapeake Bay and add to the tidal flooding a little. 

So let’s sum up some things.  We are expecting a Nor’easter to interact with an area of high pressure and bring at least moderate-severe tidal flooding to the region.  Rain from the system could create some flooding away from the waterways.  This is not as definite as the tidal flooding.  Winds will be gusting between 40-50mph near the coast.  Gusts could be 30-45mph inland.  The main reason that there will be a problem is due to the blocking nature of the storm.  It will sit relatively in the same region for several days.  The persistent winds stack up the water in the bay and produce a lot of wave action along the coast. 

With the leaves falling off the trees gutters may become clogged and add to the problem.  So please clean them out if there is one near your home.  Also, remove lawn furniture from the yard and put it in the garage.  Garbage cans too.  Now’s a good time to review your flood insurance policy in case the worst happens.  Stay tuned to the forecasts as there will be changes in the details.  Overall though, the models are agreeing that this will be a significant event.  Be safe everyone.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Ida has cleared the region between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba.  It’s what I like to call threading the needle, even though there is over 100 miles between the 2.  It is now moving into the Gulf of Mexico as predicted.  Here’s the latest satellite:

It’s still looking healthy.  You can’t see an eye on this satellite, but you might be able to by tonight.  The storm is forecast to continue strengthening.  Here’s the latest info and forecast:

By Monday morning winds are forecast to approach 100mph.  It’s possible that it could reach category 3 status at that point.  Remember the cutoff between a cat 2 and a cat 3 is 111mph.  So far it has intensified stronger than the recent forecasts by a little bit.  By Monday, however, it will start to see stronger wind shear.  Also the sea surface temperatures will be much cooler.  Here is a link to a sea surface temperature chart that shows where the cutoff is for 80 degree water: Sea Surface Temps

This system may undergo robust intensification, and then may weaken dramatically between Tuesday and Wednesday.  The forecast is for Ida to turn more to the northeast/East in the 5 day forecast.  You can go to wavy.com and check out the latest updates.  Just follow this link: wavy/hurricane

Locally, another nice day. Lots of sun.  Highs near 70.  Ida may bring us some moisture late Tuesday into Wednesday.  A cold front will interact with that moisture to bring us scattered showers by midweek.  Maybe some heavy rain, but it is a little far out to base a forecast off of a tropical system.  They are finicky.  Enjoy the nice weather. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

After a chilly start this morning we are looking at a fantastic forecast today.  Highs will be in the mid 60s.  Sunshine the whole way through.  Then tomorrow highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  A great weekend for a change. 

 Ida has strengthened a little more. 

The latest winds were at 60mph.  The pressure is at 997mb.  More strengthening is forecast in the next 2 days.  Eventually Ida will become extratropical.  It will become broader and will interact with some cooler air.  The upper level winds will increase.  While this will increase the wind shear, that actually may not weaken the storm in this case.  As it becomes extratropical it may actually use these upper level winds to maintain its intensity.  Mid-latitude storms (non-tropical storms) do use the upper level winds as part of their energy source.  Plus, the pressure gradient between Ida and the high to the north could create a broad area of strong surface winds along the Gulf coast.  It will be interesting to watch.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Frost advisories have been issued for Virginia Beach, Currituck county, N.C., and Northampton County, VA.  (update: Portsmouth and Norfolk are included in the advisory). Freeze warnings are up everywhere else.  Bring in the sensitive pets and plants.  I used to have a dog in Illinois when I was young.  It was a beagle that lived outside in a dog house.  Even for most of the Winter.  That was pretty common where I lived.  That dog used to be fine in weather that we call cold here, but there were of course times that we had to bring him inside.  You probably won’t need to drip the faucets unless you have pipes that are exposed to the elements or near some thin walls.  Temperatures should only drop below the freezing mark for a couple of hours.  Plants, however, will be in trouble as the freeze will kill even the mightiest of pansies. 

  I won’t talk too much about Ida, but for now it is a strong tropical depression.  It will probably become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours as it has moved back over water.  It still has the potential to move towards Florida.  We’ll update more on that tomorrow.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Ida is over land and has been weakening.  It is a tropical storm now with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.  It was briefly a hurricane before making landfall this morning over eastern Nicaragua.  The storm is expected to keep moving on a general northward motion.  If it survives and goes back over water, then it may restrengthen.  The latest track from the National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov shows that Ida could thread the needle and pass between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba.  There is plenty of warm ocean water for the storm to feed off of, but the wind shear will be moderate.  The forecast will likely undergo some changes over the next 24 hours.  As Jon Cash mentioned in the previous blog, it’s even possible that we could even get some rain from the remnants of Ida.  That’s possible, but not likely.

  Locally, we have an offshore non-tropical low that is actually far away.  However, the low is expected to strengthen and increase our winds out of the North/Northwest.  (mostly over the water).  Winds near the shore may gust to over 30mph tonight into early tomorrow.  Then, the winds will die off Friday night.  That’s when the bottom drops out and temperatures area wide will drop to the 30s.  We’ll probably see widespread frost and a possible inland freeze. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Ok…you’re right… all the doomsdayers out there kept saying:  “Something could still happen this hurricane season”.  “It’s not over”…  And so Ida was born this afternoon to prove that you can never count out mother nature too early.  This image is from the National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov .  Ida is a healthy tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.  The storm is expected to move northwest and affect Central America with some gusty winds and heavy rain.  Flooding and mudslides are the main threat from Ida.  If it survives and goes back over water, then it could reintensify before moving towards the Yucatan Peninsula.  It may shake things up a little down that way, but it has no bearing on our forecast. 

  Our local forecast is actually chilly.  Tomorrow we’ll see mid 60s (not too bad), but on Friday winds will be NNE at 15-25mph with higher gusts.  Temperatures will be in the low-mid 50s.  Futuretrak temps are even forecasting upper 40s at Norfolk Friday afternoon.  That may be a little too cold, but it will be a chilly November day. 

Finally, (just for fun) remember last year that we had snow in November.  Here’s the blog from last November about the event: http://blogs.wavy.com/2008/11/21/snow-in-november/ 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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Things should be good for the trick-or-treaters this evening.  We may see a sprinkle inland during the evening, but overall it will be mostly cloudy and mild.  Sunset is at 6:09 pm.  Before the evening we’ll see very warm temperatures and a very nice day.  Highs will be in the lower 80s.  The record is 84 at Norfolk and Elizabeth City.  We may tie that in Elizabeth City, but we probably won’t reach it at Norfolk International. 

After today the bottom drops out.  Highs tomorrow will be near 60.  Temperatures will probably fall to the 50s in the afternoon.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s for the next few days.  You may want to winterize your home a little earlier this year.  I’ve already put up plastic over the drafty windows in my home.  I cover the vents that go to the crawl space so that the cold air doesn’t flow in so freely.  I think it helps.  It’s not air-tight, but the flow isn’t so strong.  This helps the insulation that is down there.  Happy Halloween and don’t forget to turn the clocks back tonight.  Also change the batteries in your smoke detectors.  Be safe everyone. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Warm Temps, Clouds, Dogs in Vans?  This photo was sent in from Stephanie in Poquoson.  Xena (shown here) was in the annual Bow Wow Pet Parade which benefits Hampton’s Humane Society.  I’ve never dressed up my dog for Halloween, but I have given her a bone for Christmas.  By the way, never give dogs chocolate.  It’s not good for them. 

  Ok, so what’s the Halloween forecast?  Well… we will have partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be breezy out of the south.  High temps for the day will be in the upper 70s to near 80, but temperatures will drop to the lower 70s by trick-or-treat time.  Sunset will be at 6:09pm.   Rain is expected to move in after midnight.  Hopefully it doesn’t come in early.  There is a good chance for rain on Sunday though as the next cold front flips in here from the west. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The forecast has been variable to say the least.  The 7 day has been constantly changing.  This is due to some big and unseasonable cold air masses that have been swinging through the country like Tarzan on caffeine.  It’s hard for the computer models to handle these features.  This weather pattern isn’t expected to change any time soon.  Today we warmed up into the mid/upper 70s.  Tomorrow we’ll see northeast flow return.  Highs will be in the 60s Thursday and Friday.  The warmup now comes on Saturday where highs will be in the upper 70s.  (80s inland?)  So things are looking good for Halloween.  Fair and mild during the evening.  I’ll try to provide a little more detail tomorrow or Friday in another blog. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler