Jeremy Wheeler

Hot Here…Not There?

July 7th, 2014 at 8:19 am by under Weather

Behind Arthur this weekend we had some really nice weather.  Highs were in the 80s with lots of sunshine.  However, today we will start heating up the temperatures.  Highs will be in the low 90s with ample sunshine.  The big reason for the warmup is the winds.  We had some cooler easterly winds over the weekend.  Now we’ll see winds out of the southwest at 10-15mph.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

There are some showers just offshore.  One or two of those could brush the southern Outer Banks.  Tomorrow the heat is really on.  Highs will be in the upper 90s.  The heat index will be over 100 degrees.  While the southwest breeze is responsible for pouring in the heat, at least it will help in the short term to help keep folks a little more comfortable.  Skies will be mostly to partly sunny on Tuesday.  We’ll hold on to the heat Wednesday, but we will cool down a little by Thursday with highs returning to the 80s.  There will be some scattered thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon on and off through Saturday.

With the heat coming in, there is some pertinent news in the athletic world.  The National Athletic Trainers’ Association has just released some new guidelines for players/people that suffer from heat stroke.  Basically, they say that you should cool down the person first, and not wait for medical aid.  While this is a new guideline, I wonder how many people actually chose to wait for the medics when this happened in the past.  Here is an article about the subject.  New Cooling Guidelines.

In an ironic twist…It’s possible that the heat in the Pacific may not be forming a strong El Nino afterall.  While the weather phenomenon is still expected, some scientists say that a big/strong El Nino may not be as likely now as was predicted earlier in the year. Here is an article on the subject: El Nino Tone Shifts.

Staying with the heat theme.  According to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), the globe had its highest May temperatures on record.  NOAA heat.

This comes after recent headlines about how the Antarctic sea ice has reached an all-time high in the southern hemisphere.  Antarctic sea ice.

I think a lot of thermometers are now confused.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

 

 


Arthur Gains More Strength

July 3rd, 2014 at 1:34 pm by under Weather

Arthur has gained more strength.  It has increased its winds to 90mph.  The pressure has dropped to 981 mb.  It is moving a little faster at 10mph to the NNE.  The eye is still present on the radar, and the rain has already made it onto southern North Carolina.

Arthur On Radar

Arthur On Radar

There have been a couple of tornado warnings in that area as well.  There is a tornado watch up for Dare county until about 2am.   Since the sustained winds have increased already, the forecast has also increased.

Track Of Arthur

Track Of Arthur

Now Arthur is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane as it approaches the Hatteras area.  This is terrible news.  The consensus is for the system to move right over Hatteras or within 20 miles.  I have one new thought about this. If the hurricane were to move a little more to the west, then it’s possible that the water on the sounds will surge to over 4 ft.  Especially if the winds are above 100mph.  Even the Atlantic tide could see moderate tidal flooding in that scenario, but that could be a real developing problem.  So keep that in mind residents along the Outer Banks.  Especially from Kill Devil Hills southward.  I have a longer blog with more information here: AM Blog. It goes into more detail.  Be safe out there.  This looks like it will be pretty rough for folks along the Outer Banks.  Hampton Roads will have some impacts, but it would be similar to a long-lived squall line.  Stay tuned for updates!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Hurricane Arthur Is On The Move (CAT 2 Update)

July 3rd, 2014 at 9:15 am by under Weather

(update: The 11am update just came out from the National Hurricane Center.  The current sustained wind speeds have increased to 90mph.  It is moving NNE at 10mph.  The forecast now has Arthur as a category 2 hurricane when it approaches the Hatteras area tomorrow morning. We’ll have a new blog out shortly after the midday show.  Plus a full update on WAVY News 10 Midday). 

Hurricane Arthur has gained size and strength.  The winds increased to 80mph.  Looking at the latest satellite/radar it looks like it is bigger than the state of Georgia.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The system clearly has an eye, but it already had an eye during its history as a tropical storm.  There has been dry air to the north of the storm, but that has not stopped Arthur from strengthening.  However, I have noticed that the eyewall has begun to open up a bit on the western side.  There has been very little wind shear and the water temperatures are near 80 degrees.  The pressure has dropped to 983 mb (millibars of pressure).  That is about 29.03″ of mercury.  For reference we are at 29.91″ of mercury right now at the station.  Remember, the lower the pressure-the stronger the storm.  Sustained winds have risen to 80mph already.

In the last few frames of the satellite/radar it appears that the storm is beginning to take a more northeast motion.  That was indicated in the last update as it is moving NNE at 9mph.  It’s possible that the upper level winds are beginning to influence the storm slightly, but there is still no wind shear. The wind shear will increase, but not soon enough.

The hurricane will move move northeast today and it will pick up speed.  By late tonight it will be within 100-200 miles from Hatteras.

Track Of Arthur

Track Of Arthur

By 2am tomorrow morning the storm is expected to have 85mph winds sustained.  According to the latest it will pass either right over or very close to the southern Outer Banks between 3 and 8am.  By the afternoon the storm should have pushed well northeast of the region.  We’ll see improving weather into the evening.

The main drivers of Arthur will be the upper level winds and a cold front moving in from the west.

Tomorrow Morning

Tomorrow Morning

The cold front will not stall out, but it will slow down.  This will create the chance for heavy rain over the whole region as it interacts with the moisture from Arthur.  Here is the latest forecast for rain totals from our Future Trak computer model.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

With the front interaction, be prepared for the rain forecast to increase.  Especially over Hampton Roads.  With other models in mind I would say that the area could see 1-3 inches with higher amounts closer to the storm. (Most likely the Outer Banks).

The winds will be a major problem based off of the latest track.  If it follows the current path, then we are looking at winds between 55 and 75mph over the Outer Banks.  Especially near Hatteras.  Winds over northeast North Carolina will be between 35 and 55mph.  Gusts will be higher for both.  Winds over Hampton Roads will run about 15-25mph with gusts up to 45mph.  Winds will be northerly for most.  Here are the forecast wind gusts tomorrow morning from Future Trak.  Wow!

Forecast Wind Gusts

Forecast Wind Gusts

Currently, the tides are not expected to be too high for Hampton Roads.  Along most of the Chesapeake Bay the tide is currently forecast to rise about 1-1.5 ft above normal. It helps that low tide will be tomorrow morning when the storm is closest.  Along the Outer Banks, however, we will probably see moderate tidal flooding.  That will be about 2-4ft above normal.   2-4ft surge could also affect the sounds of North Carolina.  That would be Friday morning through Friday afternoon.  Remember too, on top of that, waves will be about 10-15ft.  Remember those waves will affect any homes that are right on the beaches.  Waves could even be higher near a few beaches over the OBX.  There may be flooding similar to hurricane Sandy over the Outer Banks.  Even though Sandy was well offshore.  Add to that, that the rain will be falling at the same time.

The forecast models are all in fair agreement of the track.  They still aren’t in exact agreement, but there is a consensus for near the Hatteras area.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

The GFS model takes it right over Hatteras.  The European model has it just east of Hatteras by only a few miles early Friday morning.  It has been one of the strongest and most consistent models with the storm so far.  So basically there is a pretty high confidence in the southern Outer Banks taking a direct hit or a very close call.

Folks over the southern Outer Banks should evacuate.  Hatteras, Rodanthe, Waves, and Salvo.  The rest of the Outer Banks should prepare for strong damaging winds, power outages, and tidal flooding.  Northeast North Carolina should also prepare for those strong winds.  I’ve heard from a local farmer (Greg my weather watcher) that crops will take a hit with the strong winds expected.  Let alone any damage to homes.  Hampton Roads should also expect strong winds.  I don’t expect widespread damage at this time, but we could easily see a few tree limbs down, heavy rain, and scattered power outages. It will be the equivalent of a strong afternoon Summer-time thunderstorm, but for a long period of time.  If the storm wasn’t growing in size, then it wouldn’t be too bad, but the storm size has been increasing.

We’ll be updating again around midday.  Maybe the storm can weaken a bit in the short-term.  Stay tuned!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Arthur Maintains Strength…Heads North

July 2nd, 2014 at 9:16 am by under Weather

*See below for the 2pm update.

There’s a lot to cover in this weather blog.  Besides Arthur there is also a a chance for thunderstorms today and the heat index will be near 100.  I’ll cover Arthur first and then talk a little more about our local weather.

Arthur is currently a tropical storm.  Even though it seems to want to form an eye feature on the satellite/radar.

Arthur On Satellite/Radar

Arthur On Satellite/Radar

This has been noted by the National Hurricane Center.  There is dry air to the north of the system, but it has had little effect on the storm up to this point.  The water temperatures are plenty warm in that region.  The wind shear is very weak.  So the sustained winds have increased to 60mph.  It was moving north at 6mph.  The pressure had dropped to 996mb, but then it came up to 998mb.  The storm is forecast to move northward today as it strengthens.  Then it is forecast to start turning northeast by Thursday.

Track Of Arthur

Track Of Arthur

It is also forecast to reach hurricane strength by Thursday.  The hurricane will move towards the southern Outer Banks from Thursday night into early Friday morning. It will move rather quickly at about 25mph.  I’ve mentioned in past blogs that typically this will weaken a hurricane, but it seems that Arthur will be unique.  At least according to the models.  By Friday evening the storm will move away from our region.  It will be well to our northeast, and the winds will subside.  Many folks will probably still be able to go to a fireworks show.  A cold front will move into the region at about the same time, and the upper level winds ahead of it should steer Arthur quickly to the northeast.

The models are in fair agreement for the track, but they have yet to close-in on an exact solution.  The consensus  (grey line) is just a bit offshore from Hatteras.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

Notice that there are a couple of models which bring the hurricane just (west) of Hatteras.  The GFS Model has it going pretty much right over Hatteras.  The European model has the hurricane passing about 50-90 miles to the southeast of Hatteras.  As you can see there are a couple of models that swing the storm way offshore.  One of them is the Canadian model (yellow line).  There is a low confidence in that solution.

So basically there are two scenarios that we are looking at.  The first scenario is less likely, but more threatening.  If the hurricane passes just west of Hatteras and more inland, then the wind threat will increase.

Inland Track

Inland Track

Then we could see hurricane force winds over the southern Outer Banks and mainland Dare county.  At least in the gusts.  Tropical storm force winds (39mph or greater) would be able to make it well into Hampton Roads and to the Eastern Shore.  Gusts 25-35mph would be possible west of the yellow area.  Heavy rain would be able to fall in the yellow and orange area.  Moderate to major tidal flooding would be possible around Hatteras with moderate tidal flooding across the Outer Banks and some minor tidal flooding in Hampton Roads and the lower/middle Chesapeake Bay.  This is preliminary, but it is the general idea.

If the hurricane were to follow the more likely scenario of just offshore, then the worst conditions would be very localized.

Just Offshore Track

Just Offshore Track

The hurricane force gusts would be confined to the Hatteras area and some of the southern Outer Banks.  There is a hurricane watch for Mainland Dare county and the Outer Banks Dare county down to Hatteras.  The tropical storm force winds would be confined to the Outer Banks and parts of northeast North Carolina.  Possibly up to Virginia Beach.  Winds west of the line could get up to 25-30mph.  There would will be moderate (maybe major) tidal flooding down towards Hatteras, but it would probably be minor up to Virginia Beach.  The Bay might see a little water rise, but not too bad.  Heavy rain would be confined to along the coast and mostly northeast North Carolina.

Either way there will be a high threat for rip currents on Friday.  Even if the storm moves far offshore, there would be high waves and a high threat for rip currents into the weekend.

So those are the basics of Arthur.

Locally we will have a hot/humid day.  Highs will be in the mid 90s.  The heat index will be near 100 degrees.  We’ll pop-up some scattered showers and storms this afternoon. We already had a couple spots of heavy rain this morning.  Tomorrow we’ll see a cold front approach from the west.  We’ll have scattered showers and storm out ahead of it.  Both today and tomorrow there could be some heavy rain, but storms are more likely tomorrow.  The front will move through late Thursday into early Friday.  This should help to push Arthur offshore.  If the timing of the front changes, then the speed and track of Arthur could also change.  The upper level winds (trough) will be the main steering current though.

Folks in Hatteras may have to evacuate.  Residents along the southern Outer Banks may have to as well.  I would start making preparations down there.  I don’t see evacuations elsewhere at this time.  We still have some time to refine the exact track.

**2:30pm Update**

The National Hurricane Center still has the storm on a similar forecast track. At this point wind speeds are at 60mph sustained with a movement to the north at 7mph.

2pm Update

2pm Update

You can see the Hampton Roads cities is not in the forecast cone, so the strongest parts of the storm will remain out to sea by Friday morning. The OBX is still in the storm’s path. I will be writing another blog following the NHC’s 5pm update, stay tuned.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson & Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tropical Storm Arthur

July 1st, 2014 at 1:15 pm by under Weather

This is a midday update to the tropical forecast.  I did a longer blog about the overall forecast earlier this morning.  Arthur is now a tropical storm with winds of 40mph.  It hasn’t moved much since this morning.  So it is still about 95  miles southeast of Cape Canaveral Florida.  It is moving northwest, but only at 2mph.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The forecast has been adjusted upward, but the track hasn’t changed too much.  The National Hurricane Center has increased Arthur’s sustained winds to 80 mph just south of Hatteras by early Friday morning.

Forecast Of Arthur

Forecast Of Arthur

If this forecast verifies, then it will put down some damaging winds over the southern Outer Banks.  Possibly some gusty winds for Hampton Roads, but with less strength.  NHC has the most likely track as passing just offshore from Hatteras by around 8am.  There is some pretty good agreement in the models on this scenario. Keep in mind that the possible path (yellow cone) does include some coastal areas just west of the coastline.  The hurricane/storm would then likely push away from us.  We would see some gusty winds behind it for a bit, but then the winds would probably subside by Friday evening.

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona will have an updated track and forecast at 5pm this evening.  I don’t anticipate any huge changes, but I’m hoping that the models will either trend down in strength or farther east.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Tropics…Here We Go!

July 1st, 2014 at 9:10 am by under Weather

Well the Atlantic Hurricane season has just revved up, and the timing couldn’t be better (heavy sarcasm).  Just in time for the 4th of July we have a tropical system that could potentially become a hurricane and affect part of our region.  At the moment the system is a tropical depression. It is off the coast of Florida about 90 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral.  The pressure was 1007 mb (millibars of pressure).  The depression was drifting west at 2mph, but then it stopped its motion.  It is expected to start heading north by later today.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

It may brush land or move over land briefly, but then it is expected to move back over the water.  By tomorrow morning winds are expected to increase to 45mph.  Winds are forecast to reach 60mph by Thursday morning.  At that point it is forecast to be about 300-400 miles east of Savannah, GA.  Then the system will begin to move northeast as it interacts with the upper level winds.  At that point the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has it reaching hurricane strength.  This would be sometime between late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Forecast Track

Forecast Track

The latest forecast and most of the models have it moving out of the region by either Friday afternoon or Friday evening.  This could allow for some of the fireworks and festivities to resume Friday evening.  Of course it may be tough to celebrate if there is wind damage near your city.  We’ll see.  Also, even though the system will push away, the winds on the back side may be too breezy for fireworks.  For now I’m optimistic about that part of the forecast.  By Saturday morning the system should be long gone.  Then we’ll have a nice weekend following.

Now let’s talk about some of the more complex issues with this tropical system.  At the same time that this will be near our latitude, a cold front will be heading in from the west/northwest.

Day 3 Fronts and Pressures

The forecast map is from the Weather Prediction Center.  It was made before the NHC forecast increased the intensity of the tropical system, but it shows the position of the front as well as Arthur Friday morning.  Along with the cold front a large trough will move-in in the upper levels. The upper level winds will increase and pick up from the southwest.  This should help to move the system quickly to the northeast.  Therefore it could be jetting to the northeast at about 20-25mph between Thursday night and Friday morning.  The models have been trending a bit more offshore.  The most likely path (center line below) from NHC has the storm just offshore from Hatteras at its closest point, but the possible path (yellow cone) does extend over parts of the coast.

Forecast Track

Forecast Track

Some of the models weaken the system a bit as it moves north over the next 36 hours.  There is some dry air just north of the system.  Also upper level winds may increase a bit in the short-term.  The European model has it staying the most organized through the entire forecast period.  The models do strengthen it as it starts its northeast motion, but upper level winds will strengthen at that point.  The forecast models were tightly clustered over the coast yesterday.  However, today there is a bit more of a spread, and they are generally farther east.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

The European model and the GFS both take it fairly close to Hatteras.  The European is the strongest so far.  The GFS has the system more as a tropical storm near our region.  Despite increasing upper level winds, the storm looks to maintain strength as it moves farther out to sea.

So here’s my general thoughts on this system…  It is weak right now, but it is predicted to strengthen greatly within 2-3 days.  The water temperatures are warm down towards Florida and South Carolina, but they are a little cooler off our coasts.  Also, the wind shear is forecast to increase as the storm moves northward.  So while I don’t disagree with the strengthening, I am a little dubious about it becoming a hurricane.  It will be coming from the southwest.  Typically systems that come from that direction don’t create big impacts on our region.  Tropical storms Hanna and Cristobal (2008) come to mind.  They can however, bring a threat for tornadoes if they move right over us.  For reference…Isabel (2003) came from the southeast.  I don’t expect anything like Isabel from Arthur.  If the system were to move along the coast, then the Outer Banks could see damaging winds, heavy rain, and some tidal flooding.  However, I don’t think it would be that bad for Hampton Roads.  If it were to move more inland, then Hampton Roads could see some problems with heavy rain and strong winds, but the system would likely be weaker.  Therefore the tidal flooding probably wouldn’t be that bad along the Chesapeake Bay.  We are close to new moon, so we will have to monitor.   It’s interesting that the BAM-shallow takes the storm more west while the BAM-deep takes it much farther east.  With it’s current strength forecast, I could see the storm moving due north or even northwest for a bit, then taking a strong turn to the ENE by late Thursday night.  So folks along the southern Outer Banks should monitor the forecast carefully.  You may want to think about a possible evacuation if you live around Hatteras.  Keep in mind that it is still early, and the forecast is very apt to change.  Especially considering the interaction with the cold front.  Folks in Hampton Roads should just monitor for now.  I’ll have another update out around midday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


First Tropical System?

June 30th, 2014 at 9:04 am by under Weather

Locally we have pretty quiet weather today.  I’ll have more on that in just a moment. First, let’s talk about a developing area of low pressure in the tropics.  Near central Florida there is a weak area of low pressure that has been developing for the past couple of days. The computer models hinted at this system last week.  Now it has formed.

Area Of Low Pressure

Area Of Low Pressure

The low has been drifting to the south-southwest.  It is expected to move a little more southwest in the short-term.  It may even move over land today.  Heavy rain is expected over parts of Florida even if the center of the low sits offshore.  The computer models are tracking this system.  They generally curve it from southwest to west (briefly) to northeast.  So basically a button hook move.  There is some dry air to the north of the system.  This may impact its development.  The upper level winds are not too strong right now, but they are expected to increase a bit.  Water temperatures are plenty warm off the coast of Florida, but they are not as warm along the Carolinas.  The consensus of the computer models is for the low to move up along the coast over the next few days.  By Friday they bring it very close to our region.  This will be due to increasing upper level southwesterly winds ahead of a trough.

Forecast Track Models

Forecast Track Models

At the same time as the low moves up from the south, a cold front will will be approaching from the west.  The low/depression/tropical storm would likely ride northeast along the front.  It’s possible that the front may stall out.  If that were to happen or if it were to even just slow down, then the system could pass more inland/west.  Either way the upper level winds should push the system northeast.  If the front/trough were to speed up, then it could push the system more offshore.  I think there’s less of a chance for that at this point.  Fronts during the Summer tend to slow down over our region.  Anyway, the system is forecast to push out of here by Saturday and Sunday.  So our fireworks may be in jeopardy, but the weekend still looks good.  If the system comes in along with the front, then heavy rain will be a threat.  I don’t think we’ll see much tidal flooding unless the system really strengthens offshore and slows down.  If the system passes just offshore, then winds shouldn’t be too bad because we’ll be on the good side of the storm.  (Remember the worst winds are on the right side of the storm’s motion).  However, if it passes over Hatteras, then the southern Outer Banks could see some damaging winds.  Isolated tornadoes could also be a problem.  Again…it’s still early.  There’s even the low chance that the system doesn’t even form.  So stay tuned!

Locally we have an area of high pressure today.  We’ll see partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 80s.  Winds will be southeast at 5-10mph.  Humidity is increasing.  Tomorrow we’ll heat up.  We’ll see lows in the 70s and highs in the low 90s.  We’ll still be partly cloudy tomorrow, but rain chances will increase from Wednesday into Friday.  Highs are expected to rise into the mid 90s by Wednesday.  It will feel like 100 or higher with the heat index in many cities.  The cold front should cool us to the 80s again by Friday.

We’ll be updating you on that area of low pressure over the next couple of days.   Hopefully, we can get some of the rain without the wind.  Hopefully, not during the fireworks.  Too much to ask?

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


I Could Use A Shower?

June 27th, 2014 at 8:42 am by under Weather

If you read the title to this blog, then you think that either A. My yard needs some rain again, or B. I haven’t showered recently.  Please know that it is the former.  : )

There were some scattered showers around this morning.  I really wish I had more rain at my house recently.  That sentiment is shared by others.  Some folks, like my weather watcher Jan in Reedville, say that they still really need some rain.  Here are some of the monthly rainfall totals (left) along with the departure from average (right):

Richmond:                 3.39″ / -0.02″

Norfolk:                       1.91″ / -1.78″

Elizabeth City, NC:   3.82″ / -0.09″

Wallops Island:         1.58″ / -1.32″

Notice how far below the average that Norfolk is despite recent rains.  The rain this morning was particularly heavy over parts of northeast North Carolina.  Manteo, East Lake, and Barnes Crossroads had some real downpours.

Satellite/Radar This AM

Satellite/Radar This AM

Part of the reason we are seeing showers is due to a stationary front that has drifted just a bit north.  The showers were to the north of this boundary.

Stationary Front Nearby

Stationary Front Nearby

This stationary front is causing more rain for the Midwest and Deep South today.  There have been stories all this week about the flooding over central parts of the country.  Here is one story from NPR news: Midwest Flooding.

We’ll have an easterly breeze today.  This will keep it cooler near the shore with low 80s.  We’ll see upper 80s inland.  The easterly breeze will also keep things pretty stable near the shore.  So we will pop up some afternoon shower and storms, but they will be more likely in our inland locations.

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

The good news is that the area of high pressure over the Great Lakes is expected to build down into our region.  This will A. bring us some nice weather this weekend and B. give us a stronger easterly breeze.  Today the wind will be east at about 5-10mph.  Tomorrow it will be east at 10-15mph.  Highs will be in the low/mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.  Skies will be partly cloudy.

We could see a few showers and storms far inland on Monday afternoon, but the chance for our region looks low.  We’ll see hotter temperatures most of next week with scattered afternoon showers and storms in the afternoon.

Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


A Slight Drying In Your Future?

June 26th, 2014 at 8:04 am by under Weather

Today I feel like a medicine commercial.   You know… the ones where the person says all of the possible side effects from the advertised medicine.  Today is partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.  Please note…(Some folks will feel a general discomfort with the humidity this morning. Then there will be a slightly drier feeling this afternoon.  Some folks will still feel a discomfort with the heat.  A slight breeze out of the northwest may help to alleviate discomfort….and bloating).  : ) 

There has been some rain over the last 24 hours, but not everyone saw it.  Here was the view yesterday afternoon around 4pm in the afternoon.

Few Showers Yesterday

Few Showers Yesterday

There were also some showers last night which were out ahead of a wind-shift line.  That line moved into the region this morning.  It started to turn the winds out of the northwest.  There is a also a weak cool front right behind it that will slowly push through today.  The effect won’t be much cooling, but the air will slowly dry out.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

As both boundaries come together and settle over northeast North Carolina they will try to kick-off some isolated showers and/or thunderstorms in that area.  It’s not a high chance, but a few will see showers.

Today's Rain Chances

Today’s Rain Chances

Tomorrow the boundary will drift around near the region.  So we’ll see a few showers and storms pop up in the afternoon. This time we could see them in Virginia as well as North Carolina.  The chance for rain is about 30%.  Over the weekend I have a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm each day with highs in the 80s.  There will be a better chance for rain just to our west.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Scattered Showers and Storms

June 25th, 2014 at 8:47 am by under Weather

It’s a pretty simple blog today.  We have hot/humid conditions in the region, and it is going to lead to some scattered showers and storms.  It’s interesting because recently it’s felt like we’ve had a lot of rain.  However, we are still below average for rain.  Norfolk International Airport has had 1.91″ of rain so far this month.  That is actually 1.5″ below the average.  However,  we are up 1.10″ for the year.  We didn’t see too much rain earlier this morning, but then the scattered showers started popping up around 7:30am.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

One major factor in the rain formation is the high humidity.  Dew points have risen into the low 70s.

Regional Dew Points

Regional Dew Points

Another factor is that the area of high pressure is breaking down. Plus, temperatures were already in the upper 70s to near 80.  So expect an increasing chance for rain today.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be going with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Future Trak 3 PM

Future Trak 3 PM

Winds will be southerly at 8-12mph.

By tonight a lot of the rain will disperse.  We’ll see partly cloudy skies with lows in the low 70s.  A weak cold front will move through the region tomorrow.  It will dry out southeast Virginia, but it may spark a few showers or storms over northeast North Carolina.  Highs will still be in the upper 80s, but it will be a little drier in the region.  Winds will be out of the northwest.

We’ll see a few showers late Friday.  Then it looks like a slight chance for a shower or storm for Saturday and Sunday.  The models still show a lot of rain for the region Saturday and Sunday, but mostly just west of the viewing area.  So stay tuned a fine-tuning of the weekend forecast.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler