Jeremy Wheeler

Time To Chill Out!

July 17th, 2014 at 8:03 am by under Weather

Yep! After all of the rough weather for the past couple of days, we now have some nice weather on the way.  It wasn’t rough for everybody, but we had some strong-severe storms on Monday.  Then there was very heavy rain over northeast North Carolina yesterday.  My weather watcher in Currituck, NC (Greg) had 5″ in a short period of time.  Elizabeth City didn’t have that much rain, but they did get 1.85″.  This gives them 5.22″ for the month of July.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

The rain and the cold front have moved well offshore.  It is going to stall-out offshore near the Gulf Stream today.  The rain will stay east of us as well.

Satellite, Radar, & Fronts

Satellite, Radar, & Fronts

High pressure and drier air are pushing into the region.  Dew points are dropping from the 60s to the 50s.  It is going to be a very dry and comfortable afternoon.  Winds will pick up out of the northeast at 8-12mph with a few higher gusts near the shore.

As far as temperatures go…Here’s a neat look back at high temps for the month of July so far.

Recent High Temps

Recent High Temps

Clearly we’ve had some up and downs.  It’s been nice.  Even though we’ve seen periods of hot/humid weather, there have been some pretty good breaks in-between.  Notice that yesterday we had a high of 77 degrees at Norfolk International Airport.  We’ll see highs in the mid 80s today and tomorrow.  In fact, highs are forecast to be in the 80s for the next 7 days.  Lows will be in the 60s for a couple of mornings.

Other than a few showers on Sunday, the weekend looks great.  I’ll update more on that in tomorrow’s blog.  Till then… enjoy the great weather!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cooler Weather And Rain Arrive

July 16th, 2014 at 9:19 am by under Weather

As expected, things got pretty rough yesterday for parts of our area. We had many reports come in of trees down over sections of Virgina Beach.  Here was one photo sent it from Brie Sanders.

Tree Down, Virginia Beach

Tree Down, Virginia Beach

While there were only a handful of official reports from the Storm Prediction Center, we also had many unofficial reports come in. Here are the official reports:

Storm Reports

Storm Reports

In the reportit@wavy.com folder, I saw one report of part of tree down in Suffolk.  I saw one report of a limb down in Hampton.  On the official report I noticed that there was a wind gust report to near 60mph in Yorktown (yellow dot).  I didn’t see any damage reports from there, but I had one viewer on facebook say that they were on the Coleman bridge when that happened.  They said it was very scary, and they were surprised the report wasn’t higher.  I wouldn’t want to be on the Coleman bridge during any type of storm. That thing is taalllll.

It was interesting to watch. The weather was very quiet at the noon hour.  Then within about 45 minutes, the storms flared up.  They started inland and then pushed northeast.  Here is what it looked like around 3:30pm.

Satellite/Radar Yesterday

Satellite/Radar Yesterday

Showers and storms continued on and off during the overnight.  Then this morning they became some light/scattered showers.  Here are the rain totals for the last 24 hours.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

The rain from Elizabeth City all fell this morning.  My weather watcher in Currituck had nothing from yesterday, then he also picked up about 0.8″ between about 6 and 8am.  There was a whopping 2.76″ of rain at West Point, but Don in Toano only had 0.67″.  Oceana missed a lot of the rain, but I believe northeast Chesapeake and northern Virginia Beach had about 1-2″.  There was some street flooding reported there.

Today a cold front is still moving through the region, but very slowly.  There is also a weak area of low pressure creeping along the front.  So the rain will hang on for a little while longer.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

The models hold onto the rain through about the mid afternoon.  Then the drier weather should take over and end the rain.  We’ll dry out tonight with low in the 60s.  There may be some patchy fog.  Then tomorrow looks great.  We’ll see mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s.  Winds will be northeast at about 8-12mph.  We’ll see nice weather on Friday and Saturday too.  Just a slight chance for a shower on Saturday.  There’s a little higher chance for rain on Sunday, but the models keep going up and down with the rain chances.  So stay tuned if you have outdoor plans.

Now I looked at some of the technical stuff for yesterday’s storms.  There are some differences between last week’s and yesterday’s weather.  So I’m going to get very nerday ( I made that up) for this paragraph.  Anyone afraid or bored can skip to the end. Ahem… So yesterday we had a lot of instability.  According to the  SPC forecast tools, we started to see a CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) of about 4,000-4,500 J/Kg.  that is huge.  Plus, we had some upper level winds move in.  The 0-6km shear was about 30 knots.  That’s not too impressive, but it’s enough.  That’s also about the same as last Thursday.  However, yesterday we were in a wider area of those winds.  Last Thursday we had a jetsreak at the 700mb (millibars) level. We didn’t have that this time, but we did have some upper level divergence around the jetstream level (300 mb).  This means that winds were set up to spread out in the upper levels.  This promotes rising air underneath to take its place. Which is what storms like.  We had a lifted index of -7 to -8 yesterday.  That is also very unstable.  So the storms yesterday occurred on a larger scale.  (Basically the whole east coast).  They exploded around 1 in the afternoon.  They were roaring for a couple of hours, but then the outflows became widespread.  This shut off a lot of the storms as most temps dropped into the 70s.  So things quieted down during the evening.  Since the cap wasn’t too strong yesterday, the storms didn’t get a chance to build as tall as last week.  So there were few reports of hail yesterday. Also, I believe that there was a pocket of cooler weather at 700mb last week with that jetstreat, but I can’t prove it.  Either way, I am ready for some quieter weather.

The tropics are quiet right now.  Our weather will be quiet for a few days.  So enjoy the peace.  Seems like mother nature has had a little bit of high blood pressure lately.  This weekend is the Jazz Festival in Norfolk.  So let’s hope the weather stays calm for that.  Plus, Don Roberts is going to throw out the first pitch at the tides game on Friday.  We HAVE to have nice weather for that event.  Otherwise Don might have a bad throw.   :  )

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Strong To Severe Storms Today

July 15th, 2014 at 8:18 am by under Weather

Once again we are looking at some active weather in the region.  There are some ingredients coming together to produce the chance for severe weather today.  We are under a slight risk, and I wonder if we will be upgraded to a moderate risk for severe.  This risk is put out by the Storm Prediction Center.   We could see some severe winds and large hail.  Heavy rain is likely over parts of the region. An isolated tornado is possible, but it is the least likely of today’s threats. There are several ingredients that are coming together to cause this elevated threat for severe.

First off…it is going to be hot and humid once again.  Temps will rise to the low 90s and the dew points are in the low 70s.  This will make for a very muggy day, and that will lead to a good amount of instability.  The CAPE (Convective Available Potential Instability) is one way to measure instability.  It will be high like yesterday.  It will probably be over 2000.  For reference 500-1000 is about the minimum for some strong storms.  However, today there will also be some upper level wind support to go with it.  Due to the cooler air over the Midwest, the jetstream is taking a large dip.

Weahter Factors

Weahter Factors

It will be coming up just to our west, and it will be edging east.  That is in the upper levels.  This will help to support the storms from above while the instability will let the storms grow from the bottom.  At the same time, the surface a strong cold front will be moving into western Virginia/North Carolina into the afternoon.  So the area ahead of both of these features will be ripe for thunderstorms.   Right now (as I write this) the front is in Ohio and almost to Pennsylvania.

Satellite, Radar, And Fronts

Satellite, Radar, And Fronts

Notice the showers and storms out ahead of the front earlier this morning.  The front will make it to our area by this evening, but storms will fire out way out ahead of it.  In fact our Future Trak model develops some scattered strong storms already by 3pm.

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

The front will slowly push through our region.  We’ll continue with a chance for rain through tonight into tomorrow morning.  The rain may even linger through noon tomorrow, but we should start drying out by the afternoon. Overall we are looking at a good 1-2″ of rain through the region.  It will depend on whether or not you sit under one of the local downpours.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

Again… highs today will be in the low 90s with a heat index in the mid 90s.  Tomorrow the front will knock our highs down to the low 80s.  We’ll see nice weather Thursday and Friday with highs in the low/mid 80s.  We will get some of that drier Midwestern air into the region.  Low temperatures will be in the 60s on Thursday and Friday mornings.  I only have a slight chance for a shower on Saturday, but a higher chance for Sunday.  Highs should still be in the 80s.

Please be weather aware today.  Especially if you are heading to the beach or out to the local parks.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


The Polar…I Mean…The Odd Weather Pattern

July 14th, 2014 at 8:46 am by under Weather

It’s Monday.  So I apologize in advance… but coming out of the gate I’ll say that the media is back to using the term Polar Vortex again, and I am not a fan of the name.  This is a very overused and misused term by many.  The Polar Vortex is actually a year-round phenomenon of cyclonic upper level winds around the north and south poles.  Once in a while a piece of it drops south and that typically coincides with colder air at the surface.  Sometimes it’s a huge drop in temps.  The problem is that many people tend to think that the cold air at the surface IS the polar vortex itself.  And that is not right.  Here is the definition and explanation of the Polar Vortex: Polar Vortex.   I guess some of the National Weather Service offices initially used the term, but were instructed to not use it anymore with this event.  This is according to a recent blog from the Capital Weather Gang here: NWS changes tune about Polar Vortex.

Still… there’s no doubt that there will be a very unusual weather pattern developing this week.  Here is what a typical July weather pattern looks like:

Typical Weather Pattern

Typical Weather Pattern

The jet stream typically runs along or near the U.S.-Canadian border.  Heat and humidity sit across most of the country.  High pressure usually dominates a large part of the U.S., and many areas see pop-up showers and thunderstorms.  However, tomorrow into Wednesday the jet stream will take an unusually large dip.  A significantly cooler air mass will surge into the Midwest.

Odd July Pattern

Odd July Pattern

Low temperatures may be in the 40s around the Great Lakes and parts of the Midwest.  I’m from Illinois, and I know that that is a rare thing in July.  They will have highs in the 60s and 70s over that same region.  Meanwhile we’ll see some cooler weather here, but it won’t be that dramatic.  The jet stream is in the upper levels, but a cold front will move through at the surface.  This will enhance our chance for storms late tomorrow into tomorrow night, but it will also cool us down on Wednesday.

So let’s put all this together into our forecast.  We are well out ahead of this cold front today.  High pressure is in the region.

Satellite, Radar, And Fronts

Satellite, Radar, And Fronts

High temperatures will rise into the low/mid 90s with the heat index rising to near 100.  Winds will be southwest at 10-15mph.  So at least there will be a breeze again.  We may see a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but the chance for rain is only 20%.  Tomorrow as the front moves into western/northern Virginia the rain chances will increase.  Showers and storms will expand and strengthen through the late afternoon.  By the late afternoon into the evening we’ll see strong to possibly severe thunderstorms move in from the west.  I will highlight the particular threats in tomorrow morning’s weather blog, but it looks like straight-lined winds will be the main threat at this time.  Heavy rain will be possible tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. The rain chances should decrease by Wednesday afternoon-evening.  We could pick up another 1-2″ of rain.  My weather watcher Don in Toano said he still needs rain, but we have been doing really good on the Southside after Arthur and last week’s storms.  Highs will be in the low 80s Wednesday.  By Thursday morning lows will be in the 60s.  Highs will be in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies.  Ahhhhh.  It sounds lovely.  Unfortunately, the models show scattered showers and storms next weekend.  Maybe they’ll change their tune before we get there.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Looking Back At Yesterday’s Storms, And What’s Next?

July 11th, 2014 at 9:09 am by under Weather

(Update on the Virginia Beach Damage. See bold line below:)

Things got rough yesterday.  An isolated area of storms fired up over Emporia.  As they moved east they grew in size and strength.  We were tracking the storms as they showed a high indication of hail over Franklin, Courtland,  and Capron, VA.  So we had reports of golf ball to baseball sized hail.  Here was one of the reports from Robin Eason:

Hail in Courtland, VA

Hail in Courtland, VA

The storms grew into a wide area of heavy rain and strong winds.  It moved east causing wind damage, flooding streets, and more large hail.  Here are some of the official reports:

Storm Reports (Thursday

Storm Reports (Thursday)

The hail reached 1.75″ over western Virginia Beach. That’s huge for this area.  Then there was wind damage near the Oceanfront.  It is possible that it was a tornado, but so far I’ve seen more evidence for straight-lined winds.  While I have seen video of a brief funnel cloud over part of Virginia Beach, it wasn’t big enough or large enough to cause the wide area of damage that has been reported.  We’ll have an update on that later today.

Here is what the storms looked like on radar yesterday afternoon.

Satellite/Radar Yesterday Afternoon

Satellite/Radar Yesterday Afternoon

Along with the damage we also had flooding rain.  It got pretty bad over many cities on the Southside.  Here is one photo of the flooding sent in by Cristina Davis in Downtown Norfolk:

Flooding In Norfolk

Flooding In Norfolk

The rain totals were very impressive.

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

Notice that Chesapeake had 1.23″ yesterday.  The day before they had almost 3″.  So we are talking about 2-5″ over the Southside within 48 hours.  It’s great that we got the rain in the region, but it was too much-too soon for some cities.

Now I’ve looked back at some of the data from this storm system.  So here is some deeper details of what happened.  I’ll warn you that it will be a little technical for this paragraph.  So there was a stationary front in place just to our north.  Moisture was pretty deep in our region to the south of the front.  Dew points were in the low/mid 70s.  Precipitable waters were around 2″.  That is how much water is in the total column of air in the atmosphere over a certain area.  We did have a lot of clouds through the region which typically works against the chance for severe weather.  However, the clouds did thin out by midday.  So the temperatures rose to the low/mid 80s in the region.  CAPE or (Convective Available Potential Energy) aka. “the instability” was decent, but not super high.  It was between 1,000 and 2,000 with one spot up to 2,500.  500-100 is about the minimum for strong storms.  The wind shear was about 30 knots.  That is about the minimum for severe weather.  So there wasn’t a smoking gun there between the instability and the upper level winds.  However, I did notice that there was a 700 mb (level of pressure) jetstreak.  Basically that is a stronger area of winds in the mid-upper levels that rolled on through the region.  It can promote rising air, and severe weather.  Especially if there is a cold pool along with it.  I noticed it yesterday as the storms were forming over Emporia.  I’ve seen these features create severe weather events if they are potent enough.  Even when there is a lot of cloud cover.  The Suffolk tornado of 2008 comes to mind.  It was a different setup, but those were two things in common (cloud cover and the jetstreak).  I also noticed that there was a high amount of surface convergence yesterday.  That is where a lot of surface winds push towards each other.  When the air meets at the surface there is forcing upward since the extra air has to go somewhere.  We were not in a a slight risk for severe weather yesterday until around the midday. Then the Storm Prediction Center upgraded us.  Things ramped up quickly.  So those are my latest thoughts on yesterday’s storms.

(update: The National Weather Service has done a survey of the damage in Virginia Beach.  They claimed that most of the damage was caused by straight-lined winds, however there was one section that appears to have been hit by an EF – 0 tornado.  We’ll have more info as it is put out).

Today we still have the stationary front in place, but it is trying to drift south.  Also the mid-level energy over us yesterday is pushing out to sea.  So we will have less of a chance for storms today.  However, it’s not zero either.  I put it up to a 30-40% chance for scattered showers and storms later this morning through the early afternoon.  These storms are expected to push south and west of Hampton Roads through the late afternoon into the evening.  So by the evening commute we should be looking good.

Future Trak (5pm Thursday)

Future Trak (5pm Thursday)

Highs will be in the low/mid 80s today.  The good news is that we are looking at nice/quiet weather for the weekend.  We’ll have partly cloudy skies and highs in the 80s on Saturday.  It will be near 90 on Sunday.  The chance for rain will resume on Monday.  Then on Tuesday a very strong system (large trough) will drop down out of the Midwest.  As this sinks south it will help to push a cold front through the the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. That will be at the surface.  So we could see some strong storms next Tuesday as that comes through.  Then we will get a nice cool down later in the week.  It’s possible that low temperatures will drop down to the 40s over parts of the Midwest.  Very unusual for this time of year.  Some are calling it the Polar Vortex of the Summer.  Me?  Pfffft.  And that’s not a typo.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Heavy Rain And Gusty Winds

July 10th, 2014 at 8:43 am by under Weather

We had heavy rain and some damaging winds yesterday.  A cluster of severe thunderstorms moved into the heart of Hampton Roads.  There were wind gusts above 60mph near the Norfolk Naval Base.  We had lots of reports of trees and branches down in the area.  This is one example:

Tree Down (Norfolk Naval Base)

Tree Down (Norfolk Naval Base)

That photo was from Meredyth Hollingshead.  There was also lots of lightning in that area yesterday.  There were even a couple of reports of trees being struck by lightning. This photo from Yuki shows how her tree was struck, broken, and scorched.

Tree Hit By Lightning

Tree Hit By Lightning

The storms had formed well out ahead of a cold front that had been approaching the area.  There was a lot of heat and humidity, and therefore lots of instability in the region.
Today the front is stalling out right on top of us.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

With the front stalled out over the area, expect more showers and storms today.  At least the temperatures will be held down.  So highs will be in the mid-upper 80s.  However, there’s a lot of humidity.  So it will be muggy.  We can expect thick clouds today along with downpours in some of the heavier showers.  There may be a few strong thunderstorms, but I don’t think they will have the strong winds like we saw yesterday.  We can easily pick up another inch or two of rain.  Maybe even more.  Yesterday we had about 1-2 inches with one city (Chesapeake) close to 3.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

The front will slowly sink south tomorrow.  So we’ll have a chance for more rain at least through midday Friday.  I’m hoping it all slides south by the afternoon.  The weekend still looks good, but I did have to add a slight chance for rain on Sunday.  (Now it’s for both days).  Next week it looks like more storms, and highs will return to the 90s.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


A Thunderstorm To Keep Cool

July 9th, 2014 at 8:57 am by under Weather

It has been hot and humid over the last 24 hours, and the heat is still on for today.  However, there are changes taking place in the region.  For instance, we had tons of sunshine yesterday, but today we started out with lots of clouds and some spotty showers in the area.  There were more showers forming to our west.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is a cold front off to our west, and some scattered showers and storms were forming ahead of it.  We will also be ahead of it today.  So high temperatures will rise back into the 90s.  If these clouds hang around for most of the day, then highs will be more in the low 90s.  I think there will be enough breaks in the clouds to make it to the mid 90s.  The heat index is supposed to be in the upper 90s to near 100 again, but the breeze has really been helping the true feels-like temperature. The breeze will be out of the southwest at 10-15mph today.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Scattered showers and storms are forecast for this afternoon.  I put the chance for rain at 40%.  We could see a couple of strong storms as we get into the heating of the afternoon.  Heavy rain and strong gusty winds will accompany a few storms.  The good news is that if you do get some rain, then your temperature will drop for a while.  Plus, then you won’t have to water the lawn.  Here is what Future Trak looks like at 3pm:

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

Tonight the cold front will move through.  So we’ll see a line of showers and storms form and move through.   The rain chances will go up to about 60% tonight.  Tomorrow the front will only slowly edge through the region.  So we will get the cool down, but there will also be another chance for rain. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid-upper 80s with variable winds.  We’ll see a few more showers and storms on Friday, but they may be confined to the morning.  We’ll see.  The front will stall out to our south, and a weak area of low pressure is predicted to move along the boundary.  We are still looking good for this weekend.  Just a stray shower possible on Saturday.

In the same tone of thunderstorms, I found an interesting article that was recently published about storm chasing and how it has changed.  The word from Examiner.com is that a lot of it has become “Chasertainment”.  I used to storm chase when I was at Mississippi State University as a student for 2 years. Then I chased an instructor for 1 year.  We went on one big trip to the Great Plains in the early 2000′s.  That was a really great experience.  We respected the roads and we respected the people affected.   I have a lot of respect for storm chasers, but I also agree that it has become less about the science and more about the thrill.  At least for many new chasers.  I’ve heard from fellow chasers that it has become difficult to chase during the Spring storm season as there are now hundreds to thousands of people chasing tornadoes.  There may come a time when people are required to obtain a permit to chase.  We’ll see.  Here is the article: Storm Chasers

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Brief Heat Returns To Hampton Roads

July 8th, 2014 at 8:04 am by under Weather

I wouldn’t call it a bona fide heat wave, but we will definitely see some heat over the next 2 days.  The average high temperature for this time of year is in the mid-upper 80s, but 90s are very common.  Today, however, we are aiming for the upper 90s with a heat index between 97-104.  Skies will be mostly to partly sunny.  The good news is that there will be a pretty good breeze coming in out of the southwest.  It will run at 10-20mph.  That really helped yesterday, as I was out in front of my house doing some work.  High pressure is sitting near the region.  So I don’t expect any rain except for possibly a stray shower or storm this afternoon.

High Pressure In The Region

High Pressure In The Region

Notice on the map above that there is a cold front in the Midwest causing some storms.  Tomorrow the front won’t move in, but it will reach western Virginia. We will see scattered showers and storms forming out ahead of it.  I am calling for a 30-40% chance for rain.  Some of these may cool down a few cities, but otherwise high temps will be back in the mid 90s with a few upper 90s inland.  The heat index will be near 100.

High Temps & Heat Indices

High Temps & Heat Indices

The front will move in between Thursday and Friday.  It will move very slowly.  So we’ll see a higher chance for rain on those days, but at least the high temps will return to the 80s.  At this time, the weekend looks decent.  I lowered the rain chance on Saturday to a slight chance.

There is nothing happening in the Atlantic ocean in terms of tropical development.  However, a super typhoon has caused destruction across some of Japan’s southern islands.  Here is the story: Typhoon Neoguri. There are some military installations that are and will be affected.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Hot Here…Not There?

July 7th, 2014 at 8:19 am by under Weather

Behind Arthur this weekend we had some really nice weather.  Highs were in the 80s with lots of sunshine.  However, today we will start heating up the temperatures.  Highs will be in the low 90s with ample sunshine.  The big reason for the warmup is the winds.  We had some cooler easterly winds over the weekend.  Now we’ll see winds out of the southwest at 10-15mph.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

There are some showers just offshore.  One or two of those could brush the southern Outer Banks.  Tomorrow the heat is really on.  Highs will be in the upper 90s.  The heat index will be over 100 degrees.  While the southwest breeze is responsible for pouring in the heat, at least it will help in the short term to help keep folks a little more comfortable.  Skies will be mostly to partly sunny on Tuesday.  We’ll hold on to the heat Wednesday, but we will cool down a little by Thursday with highs returning to the 80s.  There will be some scattered thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon on and off through Saturday.

With the heat coming in, there is some pertinent news in the athletic world.  The National Athletic Trainers’ Association has just released some new guidelines for players/people that suffer from heat stroke.  Basically, they say that you should cool down the person first, and not wait for medical aid.  While this is a new guideline, I wonder how many people actually chose to wait for the medics when this happened in the past.  Here is an article about the subject.  New Cooling Guidelines.

In an ironic twist…It’s possible that the heat in the Pacific may not be forming a strong El Nino afterall.  While the weather phenomenon is still expected, some scientists say that a big/strong El Nino may not be as likely now as was predicted earlier in the year. Here is an article on the subject: El Nino Tone Shifts.

Staying with the heat theme.  According to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), the globe had its highest May temperatures on record.  NOAA heat.

This comes after recent headlines about how the Antarctic sea ice has reached an all-time high in the southern hemisphere.  Antarctic sea ice.

I think a lot of thermometers are now confused.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

 

 


Arthur Gains More Strength

July 3rd, 2014 at 1:34 pm by under Weather

Arthur has gained more strength.  It has increased its winds to 90mph.  The pressure has dropped to 981 mb.  It is moving a little faster at 10mph to the NNE.  The eye is still present on the radar, and the rain has already made it onto southern North Carolina.

Arthur On Radar

Arthur On Radar

There have been a couple of tornado warnings in that area as well.  There is a tornado watch up for Dare county until about 2am.   Since the sustained winds have increased already, the forecast has also increased.

Track Of Arthur

Track Of Arthur

Now Arthur is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane as it approaches the Hatteras area.  This is terrible news.  The consensus is for the system to move right over Hatteras or within 20 miles.  I have one new thought about this. If the hurricane were to move a little more to the west, then it’s possible that the water on the sounds will surge to over 4 ft.  Especially if the winds are above 100mph.  Even the Atlantic tide could see moderate tidal flooding in that scenario, but that could be a real developing problem.  So keep that in mind residents along the Outer Banks.  Especially from Kill Devil Hills southward.  I have a longer blog with more information here: AM Blog. It goes into more detail.  Be safe out there.  This looks like it will be pretty rough for folks along the Outer Banks.  Hampton Roads will have some impacts, but it would be similar to a long-lived squall line.  Stay tuned for updates!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler