Jeremy Wheeler

Here Come Some Changes

April 3rd, 2014 at 8:21 am by under Weather

After some clouds in the morning, skies cleared nicely yesterday.  This allowed some of the inland temperatures to skyrocket into the 80s.  Meanwhile it warmed to the 60s near the coast.  Then temps fell back to the 50s as the winds shifted from offshore.  A cool front/wind-shift line moved through yesterday and helped to push the winds from the east.  Now that boundary is sitting over the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

As the day goes on, the boundary will slowly drift north.  A few showers are possible along this front.  We already saw a couple of showers north of the metro.  Highs will be mixed again, however, the clouds should stop the temperatures from being as dramatically different as they were yesterday.  So I’m thinking highs will be in the mid-upper 70s inland with a few 80s possible.  Upper 60s to low 70s in the metro.  Then 60s near the shore.

Another shower or two is possible tonight with lows in the 50s.  Tomorrow a strong area of low pressure will form over the Midwest while our local area of high pressure drifts east.  This will allow for the winds to pick up out of the southwest.  Skies will go to partly cloudy.  The April sun will allow for strong warming, and this time the wind should be able to push back the cooler air that sits over the water.  So highs tomorrow will be near 80 for many.  We’ll probably hit the mid 80s inland.  It will feel like early Summer.

Then a cold front will move through late tomorrow night into early Saturday morning.  It will cool things down for the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s on Saturday and mid 50s on Sunday.  Other than a few showers early Saturday, the weekend looks dry.

In the national news…They had some rough storms over the central U.S. yesterday.  The Storm Prediction Center has put a moderate risk for severe storms and tornadoes out for states in the central Mississippi River Valley for today.  This is due to a strong upper level trough and a lot warmth and humidity out there.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Almost A Repeat

April 2nd, 2014 at 8:32 am by under Weather

As advertised…yesterday had some mixed temperatures.  There was a big difference between the inland and coastal cities.

Highs Yesterday

Highs Yesterday

I don’t believe that it made it up to 74 in Kill Devil Hills, but I’m checking on that.  Regardless, today we’ll see similar weather.  Highs will be just a bit warmer.  We’ll see temps near 60 along the shore, mid-upper 60s in the metro, and it will warm to the mid-upper 70s inland.

Today's High Temps

Today’s High Temps

During the afternoon we’ll see the sea breeze kick-in along with a wind shift line.  Winds will be variable at 5-10mph, but will be more easterly during the afternoon.  So some temperatures near the shore will cool down to the mid 50s.  We’ll be dry again today.  Then tomorrow the wind-shift/trough will push back north.  This will give us some spotty showers during the afternoon.  For now I’ve kept the chance for rain at 20%, but I may have to raise it.  Highs will be a little warmer, but will be fairly mixed again.  On Friday we’ll have a different setup.  Winds will be strong out of the south.  They’ll be strong enough to stop the sea-breeze.  Therefore highs will be in the upper 70s across much of the region.  We’ll probably see some 80s inland.  On Saturday a cold front will move through early.  This will give us a few showers into the early morning, and then we’ll dry out.  Highs will be in the upper 60s Saturday.  We’ll be dry and cool on Sunday. Highs will be in the mid 50s.

A big area of low pressure will develop over the Midwest next Monday.  It will move through northern Virginia.  This will give us a better chance for rain along with some thunderstorms.  A few showers could linger on into Tuesday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Mixed Temps

April 1st, 2014 at 9:34 am by under Weather

Today will be a quiet weather day, but it won’t be a simple forecast.  Temperatures will be tricky.  One easy thing is that the winds have died down.  Yesterday an area of low pressure lingered offshore from the northeast states as high pressure was building into our region from the west.  This created the strong northwest wind.

High Pressure & Sunshine

High Pressure & Sunshine

Today the high will sit right on top of us.  This will make for fair skies and light winds.  The wind will be light and easterly at times, but overall the direction will vary.  As we get into the midday hours the air temperatures will quickly warm to the 50s and 60s.  Remember though that the water temperatures are really cool for this time of year.  They are still in the 40s.  Even some of the nearby ocean temperatures.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.cf.gif

Sea Surface Temperatures

This will be a good setup for a sea breeze to form.  This is a common occurrence, but today it will be more amplified.  When the warm air over land heats up, it rises.  Meanwhile, the cooler water temperatures keep the air cool above it, and this promotes sinking.  The sinking air has to go somewhere.  So it spreads out over the water and onto land.

Sea Breeze

Sea Breeze

The cooler air moves inland and can travel anywhere from 10 city blocks up to 20 miles depending on the local winds and the temperature difference.   So this setup will let our inland temps warm to the low 70s while temps along the shore will likely be in the upper 50s.

Forecast Temperatures

Forecast Temperatures

This is our model, but it does show the general outline.  I think Virginia Beach will be in the upper 50s.  Norfolk and Newport News in the 60s.  I do think Williamsburg will make it to the low 70s.

By tomorrow the winds should be more out of the south.  It still won’t be a strong wind, but it may be enough to stop the sea breeze from forming.  Highs will generally be in the 70s with 60s near the shore.  We’ll see highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday with dry conditions.  Rain showers are expected on Saturday, but at least it still looks warm.  Another cool down will approach into Sunday, but at least this time it looks dry unlike last weekend.

They say if you don’t like the weather in Hampton Roads, then just wait 10 minutes…It will change.  Well today if you don’t like the temperature, then just drive 10 minutes west or east.  You’ll find something you like.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


What’s That Yellow Orb?

March 31st, 2014 at 8:14 am by under Weather

As meteorologist Tiffany Savona correctly indicated in her previous blog/forecast…. there is a large yellow orb in the sky today, and it isn’t a UFO.  The sun has come out after hiding all weekend.

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

The forecast is very easy for once.  After some clouds along the coast this morning we’ll see lots of sunshine today with highs near 60.  Winds have been breezy this morning with northwest winds at 10-20mph and gusts up to 30mph near the shore.  The winds will taper off this afternoon as high pressure builds in.  We’ll see dry conditions and highs in the 60s and 70s for the next few days.  The next chance for rain will be late Friday.  It may even hold off until Friday night.  I’m ready for a nice stretch of dry/mild weather.

In national news there is a new report from the United Nations today.  There is another part of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report which has just been released.  It is making headlines across the country.  Here is the article from Reuters: U.N. report.  The report is probably very hard to believe after this year’s Winter in the Midwest and Northeast states.

Lately the snow has melted over a large area.  Especially in the Midwest.

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201403/nsm_depth_2014033105_National.jpg

snow cover across the U.S. from NOAA

I haven’t seen large reports of flooding, although there is still snow in the Ohio River Valley and the Northeast.  Has the Midwest dodged a flood bullet?  There’s still a lot of snow across northern Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan.  So we’ll see how they fare over the next month.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Warmer/Wetter Start To The Weekend!

March 28th, 2014 at 8:28 am by under Weather

We have some warmer temperatures building into the forecast over the next few days.  In fact there will only be one day in the next 8 days that I would call cool.  Today will not be that day.  This morning was great with beautiful sunshine and temps in the 40s and 50s.

Nice Morning

Nice Morning

Meanwhile there was a good amount of rain to our west from parts of the Midwest down to the deep south.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The rain will stay west of us this morning, but a few showers will sneak in this afternoon.  It’s a slight chance in the mid afternoon with a better chance by the early evening.  The good news is that temps will be soaring.  We’ll see highs in the 70s for much of the area.  Outside of the few rain showers, it will be a nice day.

By this evening we’ll see a higher chance for rain.  Lows will be mild in the upper 50s.  Oh heck…  That’s warm not mild.  Winds today and tonight will be south at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph. Tomorrow we’ll see scattered to occasional rain showers.  During the afternoon an area of low pressure will move into the region along a stalled out front.  We’ll be in the warm sector.  So highs will be near 70 once again.  During the afternoon and evening we have a chance for thunderstorms.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Now there may be some severe storms tomorrow, but it’s not a done deal just yet.  Part of the area is in a slight risk for severe, but I’m sure that the outline will change.  So I haven’t included it here.  Here is the link to the Storm Prediction Center: SPC. The area of low pressure will move very close to us.  When it gets into central Virginia, then typically bad things happen.  Also, it will be fairly warm outside and the humidity will increase.  Dew points will rise to the mid 50s.  Upper level winds will be pretty strong.  So those are some things in favor of strong/severe storms.  The main threat would be strong gusty winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out (within the entire region).  However, there will be some things working against sever.  For one, we do expect a lot of clouds and on-and-off rain showers.  So there shouldn’t be a lot of instability.  Also if the low tracks a little closer to the Appalachians then that is better than if it tracks closer to southeast Virginia.  That has to do with the amount of helicity or spin in the atmosphere.  Also while the humidity will increase, it won’t be that high.  Dew points in the 50s are not that impressive in terms of severe, unless you have super strong upper level winds to go with it.  So basically the chance for severe weather will hinge off of the exact track of the low, and whether or not we get the sun to break out for a while.  Either way I do expect rain and storms tomorrow in the region.  It will likely impact the Tides game.  At this time I still have a decent chance for rain during game-time.  Here is what Future Trak looks like at 3pm tomorrow:

Future Trak (3pm Sat)

Future Trak (3pm Sat)

I go back and forth for the rain chances at game time.  For now I put it between 40% and 60%.  Both of which are decent chances.  I do think the rain will be more scattered than what our model shows. So maybe we can get a few dry spots.

The rain will continue Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Some models keep the rain going longer now.  So I’ve been trending it later Sunday.  For now I have rain through the mid-morning. Either way it will be cooler with highs in the low/mid 50s.  The good news is that we won’t have a mega cool down as we go into next week (for once).  Instead we will warm up again.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s for probably all next week.  Things look dry through at least Thursday.  Too bad we can’t fast-forward the weather a bit.

Have a good weekend.  Try to enjoy the warm temperatures when you can.  Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson will be in tomorrow morning talking about that chance for severe weather  based off of the low track and amount of sunshine.  Try to catch him if you have plans.

One last thing.  In yesterday’s blog there was a good link/article about the Outer Banks and sea-level rise.  It is a great article and very detailed.  I welcome you to read it if you hadn’t already.  Here is the link: Outer Banks Seas.

Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Much Quieter…How About Warmer? Plus… OBX Coast.

March 27th, 2014 at 8:46 am by under Weather

Things have really quieted down since yesterday.  The nor’easter is long gone now. Even for the northeast states. It was a monster storm that had the strength and winds of a hurricane.  Heavy snow and powerful winds buffeted the northeast U.S. coast.  Here’s an article with more information about the storm.  Nor’easter

Speaking of hurricanes.  I found another article about how the Hurricane Hunters are getting some new equipment this year to help with their communications during hurricane season. (Hurricane Hunters get new equipment).

Locally, we saw some strong winds yesterday, but then they died down last night.  The clear skies and light winds allowed temperatures to drop to the 20s in many inland locations.  As we go through the day, high pressure will provide for ample sunshine.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Winds will be east/southeast at about 10mph.  Temperatures will rise into the low/mid 50s.  With the lesser wind and full sun it will feel much warmer today even though it won’t be super warm just yet.   Clouds will increase tonight.  Winds will be southerly.  So we aren’t looking as cold as this morning.  Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Tomorrow the wind will be out of the south at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.  We’ll have partly cloudy skies.  So high temperatures are aiming for around 70 degrees.  Late in the day some rain showers will approach from the west.  This will give us a chance for rain, but mostly for the evening.  Not so much during the day.

Future Trak (5pm Friday)

Future Trak (5pm Friday)

The rain will continue on and off into Saturday.  At this point I have a 40% chance for rain during the Tides game versus the Baltimore Orioles.  I’ve lowered the chance since earlier this morning.  It was at 60%.  I’m hoping the rain will shift inland a bit.  For now, here’s what Future Trak shows for game time:

Future Trak Saturday PM

Future Trak Saturday PM

Highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70.  We’ll cool down on Sunday.  After a few early morning showers we’ll dry out.  Highs will be in the 50s.  We are still looking warm next week.  Highs will be in the 60s Monday through at least Wednesday.

One last note before I go…. I found an interesting article about sea-level rise and how the Outer Banks is dealing with it.  This a lengthy article that talks about the local science and politics of it from newsobserver.com: Seal level rise and the Outer Banks

Whether you’re a local or a vacationer, I encourage you to read.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Nor’easter Heads Northeast

March 26th, 2014 at 8:57 am by under Weather

The blog title wasn’t meant to be funny, but I guess it might have produced a chuckle or two.  Anyway, yesterday we had a mess out there with rain and snow and dropping temperatures.  As predicted we had a dusting in many areas, but it was coming down pretty good for a while from the Peninsula northward.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

A lot of the snow melted between last night and this morning.  However, Accomack county had about 2-3″ of snow.  So the public schools had to cancel today due to the road conditions.  This photo was sent in by Dan and Connie which shows some of the conditions up there:

Snow In Accomack County

Snow In Accomack County

Today the nor’easter has pushed up towards Boston.  It is causing some bad blizzard conditions up there.

Nor'easter Hits The Northeast

Nor’easter Hits The Northeast

Along with heavy snow, I saw a wind gust to 69mph up in Nantucket, MA.  They may see some gusts to hurricane force today.  That’s incredible!  Meanwhile around here, high pressure is building in from the west.  Between the building high and the departing low we’ll see strong winds from the northwest.  Winds will gust up to 35-40mph near the shore.  We’ll see a lot of sunshine, but highs will only be in the low 40s.  Wind chills will be in the 20s and 30s through the afternoon.  By tonight the wind will settle down.  With clear skies and dry air this will let the temperatures drop to the 20s in most locations.  There will be some 30s near the shore.  Bring in the potted plants again if you haven’t already.  You also may want to bring the pets in for the night.  Especially the little Chihuahuas.

The record low for tonight is 23 degrees (1955).  I doubt we’ll get that low in Norfolk, but it will be well below the average low of 43.

Tomorrow will be quiet with highs near 50.  We’ll see warmer temperatures (70s) Friday and Saturday.  There will be a chance for rain from Friday evening through Saturday.  We may even see some thunderstorms on Saturday.  As I mentioned before….the long term looks pretty mild/warm compared to the recent wintry temperatures.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Spring Nor’easter Wrapped In Winter

March 25th, 2014 at 9:03 am by under Weather

What should be a Spring nor’easter with some simple rain and wind has developed into a wintry system for several states.  The chance for snow has increased for our region, but overall impacts should be minimal.  This morning an area of low pressure was moving off of Florida and moving to the northeast.  It was strengthening quickly.  At the same time moisture was increasing in the upper levels across our region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

While it looked like there was a lot of precipitation on the local radar, the air near the ground was very dry.  This allowed for a lot of the precipitation to dry up before it hit the ground.  We call this Virga.  There were a few snow showers between Toano and Gloucester.    These will subside and eventually we’ll all develop a cold rain in the region.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Keep in mind that a few sleet pellets will mix-in at times. Temperatures will keep rising.  They are forecast to get into the mid 40s.  Even though we’ll see lots of clouds, we’ll also have an east/southeast wind at 10-15mph with gusts up to 20mph.   Other than a few sleet pellets, the wintry weather will stay to our west during the day.

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

On the above map green is light rain, yellow is moderate rain, purple is a mix, and blue is snow.  By this evening the winds will start to turn more out of the northeast. Colder air will begin to move south.  So between 5 and 9pm we’ll transition over to a scattered mix of rain, sleet, and snow.  Temperatures will still be above freezing over most of the area, but they will drop a lot closer to the freezing mark north of the metro by about 9pm.  Snow will probably start to accumulate at that time towards the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula.  Between 9pm and midnight the air will become cold enough for scattered light snow showers.  This could pass as far south as northeast North Carolina.  Meanwhile the snow will pick up towards the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore.

Future Trak (Midnight Tonight)

Future Trak (Midnight Tonight)

The area of low pressure will actually be pushing away from us tonight, but it will be still strengthening.  So some of the wraparound moisture may linger on the Eastern Shore until about 5 am.  Here are the latest snow forecast totals for the area:

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

Since last night I’ve pushed the dusting area to the south.  I’ve also increased the 1-2″ area (pink).  It’s possible that we could see a little more than 2″ on the Eastern Shore.  It will depend on how much of that moisture lingers there.  Stay tuned for updates as the forecast has been changing since yesterday.

Tomorrow we’ll have high pressure building in from the west.  The low will become a strong nor’easter for the northeast states.  It will be a real mess up towards Boston and Portland.  Winds may gust up to near hurricane force up there.  Meanwhile we’ll see breezy northwest winds here.  They wont’ be that strong, but they will gust up to 40mph.  The building high will dry things up.  It will still be chilly though with highs in the low 40s.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

While the winds won’t be conducive to tidal flooding here in Hampton Roads, there may be some tidal flooding on the sound side of the Outer Banks tomorrow.  There is a coastal flood advisory in effect for this from the National Weather Service.  Thursday the weather will finally quiet down.  We’ll see highs near 50 with partly cloudy skies.  There will be some rain moving in late Friday into Saturday, but at least the temperatures will be in the 60s.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Who Ordered This Weather?

March 24th, 2014 at 8:44 am by under Weather

Alright snow lovers… Fess up?  Who called for all this wintry weather?  I actually did have a person ask for more snow the other day.  His identity will remain anonymous for his safety.  When we start a typical Winter, I would say that about 70% of the viewers want at least some snow for the area.  By the time we hit the end of Winter I would say that number goes down to about 30-40%.  I would say this year that the number of people is down to about 15.  That’s people, not percent.  Folks are ready for Spring.  The good news is that the long-term forecast looks warmer.  The bad news is that we do have a chance for a rain/snow mix over the next 24 hours.  Ayyyy!

This last weekend started great.  We saw highs well into the 70s on Saturday.  Then we had temps in the 50s and 60s yesterday.  By the evening the temperatures dropped.  A strong cold front moved through and created rain showers along with some sleet and a few snow flakes.  Now the front has passed well to our south, and our temperatures have fallen into the 20s and 30s.  Very cold start when you factor-in that our average low temperatures are in the 40s.  We are likely not even going to get above 40 today in Norfolk.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

High pressure will provide for a lot of sunshine, but winds will be out of the north at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.  If we’re lucky then highs will reach the mid 40s inland, but some the models keep coastal temps in the upper 30s.

Tonight we’ll cloud up as an offshore low develops to the southeast of Wilmington N.C.  Lows will be near 30 with a light southeast wind.  Tomorrow we may see a few showers and sleet pellets between 10am and noon.  Through the afternoon we’ll mostly see a cold rain with a few sleet pellets as the low pushes north and the moisture pushes in.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Notice that in tomorrow’s forecast that the high will be west of our region.  The low will be moving quickly to the north/northeast.  This will allow for a more easterly wind than a northeast one during the afternoon.  That is not an ideal setup for snow.  In fact a lot of the computer models have really backed off the chance for snow for the region.  Here is what our Future Trak model shows for the evening:

Future Trak (Tue 8 PM)

Future Trak (Tue 8 PM)

Notice the small area of blue (snow) on the map.  During the day it will be cold enough for snow in the upper levels, but the lower level temps will be well above freezing.  Highs tomorrow are forecast to be in the low/mid 40s.  So we could see a brief mix of rain and snow tomorrow evening, and it may end as a few flurries or light snow showers tomorrow night.  However, it doesn’t look like there will be much.  In fact I have a snowfall forecast map, but I’m not going to show it in this blog.  I had a dusting up to a half inch from the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck over to Accomack county, but I’m currently doubting that we’ll even see that.   By tomorrow night the low will quickly move northeast and will strengthen quite a bit.  We could see a few flurries or light snow showers on the back side of the low, but we’ll dry out in the overnight.  Meanwhile it will start to bring snowy and windy weather to some of the northeast states.

By Wednesday we’ll be drying out again.  It will still be chilly, and the winds will increase out of the northwest.  Highs will be in the 40s.  The good news is that we’ll warm up to the 50s and 60s going into the weekend.  We’ll see 50s and 60s continue into next weekend, but there will be a chance for rain on Friday and Saturday.  That is unless the models push the rain back into Sunday like they have on many of the past weekends.  The great news though is that the long term forecast looks like it will stay warm for a while.  I think we’ll see a stretch of warmer temperatures for about 10 days or more if we’re lucky.  A back door front could form and cool things down, but it likely wouldn’t be a cold Arctic blast like we’ve seen lately.  The winds may be changing.  Seasonal wind change has been followed for thousands of years.  In fact the Greeks built a “Tower Of The Winds” which represented the typical weather you would get from a specific wind direction.  This was build in Athens, Greece between 100 and 50 B.C. It was an octagonal building that had a different figure on each side representing the weather you would get with each wind direction.  Here is a link with more info and a picture: Tower of the winds.    Lets hope that the winds catch up to the calendar.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Enjoy Spring While You can!

March 21st, 2014 at 9:09 am by under Weather

The short term forecast is full of good news.  We had great weather yesterday with highs in the 60s.  We’ll see more nice weather today with highs in the 60s again.  Temps this morning were chilly in the 30s.  So there will be a big rise in temps through the afternoon.  It will be about a 30+ degree rise in some cities.  Winds will be light and southwest.  Due to the lighter winds we may see a sea breeze kick-in and cool things down near the coast.  Either way it will be nice and warm with sunshine.  Enjoy it while you can.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Tomorrow A cold front will approach from the west.  This will squeeze the winds and allow them to pick up out of the southwest at 10-20mph with gusts to 30mph.  This will prevent any sea breezes from forming.  Along with partly cloud skies, the winds will boost high temperatures into the mid 70s.   So one more warm day.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

However, by tomorrow evening the cold front will pass through causing some spotty showers.  The cool-down will push in more towards Sunday morning well behind the front.  We’ll have scattered rain showers forming again late Sunday into Sunday night.  It may wrap up as a few flurries as even colder air pushes in.  Then we’ll be dry and colder on Monday. Highs will only be in the mid 40s.  Sound cold?  Ok, then let’s talk about next Tuesday.

There’s already a lot of talk about this.  Probably because some of the older models showed tons of snow for the region.  They don’t show so much anymore.  Here’s the setup:

The cold air mass that moves in Sunday into Monday will strengthen on Tuesday.  This will create a large upper level trough over the Eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will work to create an area of low pressure at the surface.  The general area for this will be offshore or near the shore of South Carolina.  The low will move northeast and work along the cold air mass in place.  The GFS model has the upper levels cold enough for snow, but the surface temperatures are likely to be well above freezing.  Especially in the afternoon.  So we would probably start as a mix of rain, sleet, and snow in the region.  Then by the evening the temperatures would probably drop low enough to form some snow.  The snowiest area in the latest run looks like the Eastern Shore and Northern Neck, but don’t take that too literally just yet.  I looked at the GFS ensembles.  These use the same GFS model, but small parts of the model get tweaked about a dozen times.  If the various solutions are very different, then this means there is a lot of uncertainty.  This is what they are currently showing for Tuesday.

The European model has dried up quite a bit, and is farther offshore with the low.  It has some light precipitation in the region which is a huge change from 2 days ago.  I think this also denotes some uncertainty.  There may be some light snow on the back side of the low as it pushes away from us, but it doesn’t show much.  The Canadian model has the low a lot closer to the coast.  While this means a warmer scenario for Hampton Roads, it also has heavier precipitation.  So this could mean a band of moderately accumulating snow in some inland and northern sections of the area. That’s IF that model were to verify.  Before you go out an buy bread and milk, keep this in mind… The longer range models don’t do well with the vertical temperature profiles (temps from top to bottom).  The NAM model, the high-res NAM, and our Future Trak model will have a better handle on that as the system gets closer in time.  My guess is that most of the surface temperatures will be well above freezing for most of the period.  Especially, if we have a strong northeast wind.  Also, with the high March sun angle, that could allow us to warm up more than the models show.  We’ll have to see which way the track of the low trends on upcoming models.  Don’t rule out snow due to the calendar though.  There is a very unseasonably cold air mass coming out of the Midwest.  Again, I have no doubt that it will be colder in the region from Monday through Wednesday. We will warm up later in the week. Stay tuned for this developing weather.  We’ll be tracking it over the weekend.

Until then…enjoy the warmth.  Enjoy the sunshine.  Have fun.  Carpe Diem and have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler