We have some good and bad things going on in the weather world today. While I am expecting rain for pretty much the entire day. At least the temperatures will warm up a bit. Rain showers started up last night and continued into the morning hours.
Rain will continue through most of the day into the evening. An isolated thunderstorm isn’t out of the question, but it would only be one or two.
Regardless, rain will be heavy at times. We are looking at 1-2 inches of rain in the region through tomorrow afternoon.
The above is our model, but I believe it is underestimating a bit.
Tonight a cold front will move into the region. This will drop our temperatures to the mid-upper 30s overnight. A few showers are still possible, but it will be less coverage than today. Tomorrow we’ll have some chilly/scattered showers. The chance for rain is 30-40%. (Today it’s 100%). Highs will be near 40, but the wind will be strong. It will run out of the northeast at 10-20mph with a few gusts to 25mph near the shore. So it will feel like the 30s with the wind chills. If you get wet with that, then you will get chilled to the bone. By tomorrow night the colder air will really settle into the region. This will bring a wintry mix to the area. . We’ll see a scattered wintry mix Tuesday night continuing into Wednesday. Temps will probably be above freezing for most areas, but not too far above. So melting would be likely. However, cities towards James City County, The Middle Peninsula, and the Northern Neck could see temperatures near freezing. So our model is showing some snow there (blue areas on map below)
Keep in mind that the models differ on the amount of moisture in the local atmosphere. The GFS model, for instance, is much drier from the Peninsula northward. So we’ll have to get some updates. Either way we could expect at least a few problems for the Wednesday morning commute. A mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow are possible at that time. It could linger for a bit on Wednesday before the temps rise above freezing. Most of the models show most of the problems from Isle of Wight county northward. It’s still early in the game. Things could (and probably will) change. This is all from a weak offshore low that will try and push some moisture up into a colder airmass. The low is expected to move out by Wednesday night. Then we’ll dry out by Thursday. We’ll stay dry going into the weekend, and temps look to steadily warm up each day. No big heat ahead, but at least some 50s will return.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler