I’d say that the cooler air has already moved into the region, but the cold air is still on the way. Yesterday was nice and warm. The whole region topped out in the low/mid 70s. It was a bit cooler along the coast. Clouds rolled in last night, and that actually stopped the temperatures from falling too much. So lows were in the 50s over most of the metro with 40s inland and north. At least we didn’t have any fog to track this morning. So that was a nice change.
Today the cold front that moved into the region is stalling out to our south. A weak area of low pressure is forming and is moving north along the front.
Stalled Out Front
This is stopping the really cold air from surging in already. The cold surge is briefly paused, but it’s not far away. Look at the forecast (model) high temps for today:
Forecast High Temps
I wanted to point out that these are model-based because we are likely to get more into the mid 50s since we stared near 50. As we go through the day we’ll develop some scattered showers. We might see a few sprinkles this morning, but we’ll see scattered rain showers this afternoon and evening. Here is Future Trak 3 pm:
Future Trak (3pm)
The rain looks to increase by the evening commute. In fact…we might see some spots of heavy rain between 4 and 7 pm.
Future Trak (5pm)
The rain will taper off by 9pm. Overnight the colder air will start to surge into the region. The showers may come back for a bit as a 2nd cold surge moves into the region. The showers should wrap up by 2-3am. However, if the moisture lingers a bit longer, then some sleet pellets or a few wet snowflakes could mix-in. Surface air temperatures would be above freezing and ground temps are well above freezing. So no problems are expected. The higher chance for any mix would be towards the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and/or Accomack county on the Eastern Shore. Low temps will drop to the 30s across the region tonight.
Tomorrow will be colder. As the low pushes away and pulls the cold front with it, winds will pick up. Today they are northerly at 10-15mph. Tomorrow they will be out of the north at 10-20mph with a few higher gusts near the shore. Highs will only be in the mid 40s, and the wind will make it feel even colder. On Sunday we’ll see a lot of clouds, but the models have slowed the rain moving in. So mostly cloudy skies for Sunday with highs in the low 50s. Rain will move in by Sunday night and will last for most of Monday. The good thing about Monday is the temperature. Highs will rise to near 60s or even in the low 60s. We’ll be chilly again though Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
This morning I was tracking two things. First, there was some pretty thick fog in the area. It did make for some cool camera shots. This was one from our tower cam at Windward Towers in Newport News.
Fog On Tower Cam
This was an image of the James River Bridge. You can barely make out the top of one of the cranes near the bridge. Then the fog burned off, and the sun started to pop out. It was a warm/humid morning with temps in the 60s. The strong cold front was still to our west. The weak low that brought us rain yesterday was heading farther out to sea.
Cold Front To The West
During the day we’ll see more and more sunshine. As brief high pressure moves in. This will let temps warm up to near 70 degrees. Then the front will move through this evening and will start to drop the temperatures. No rain is expected with the front. We’ll be mostly clear tonight and chilly. We’ll start in the 40s Thursday morning, but will only rise to the low 50s during the afternoon. A weak upper level disturbance and a weak low offshore low will help to create some scattered showers by Thursday afternoon. Here is what Future Trak shows for 3pm tomorrow.
Future Trak 3pm Thu.
The showers will continue into the evening, but should push out by Friday. The models have backed off of the snowflakes at the end of the precipitation. I still won’t rule it out, but I still think it would only be a few melting flakes on the tail-end early Friday morning if any fall at all. We’ll dry out through Friday. Highs will only be in the mid 40s. We’ll see lows in the 20s/30s Saturday morning. Then highs will be in the mid 40s with partly cloudy skies. We’ll rise to the 50s by Sunday, but some rain showers will move back into the picture.
Yep! That’s the short answer to the rhetorical question posed in the title to this blog. The longer answer is more interesting. They are definitely seeing an early Winter in the northern States today. Some areas could see more than 10 inches of snow. Maybe even over 15″. It’s way too early for that type of snow. Even in the Midwest. Here is the snow this morning on the satellite/radar:
Blue = Snow, Green/Yellow = Rain
Meanwhile a weak area of low pressure is sitting to our southeast. It will continue to throw some moisture/showers in our direction through the day. So if you have some outdoor events to attend for Veterans Day, then be sure to take the umbrella. With the low to our southeast, the highest chances for rain will be closer to the low. So here is my rain chance map for today:
Rain Chances Today
The showers will come in waves or pockets of light rain. Here is what Future Trak shows for 3pm:
Future Trak (3pm)
We’re not looking at much for amounts. Maybe a tenth of an inch or two. We’ll dry out tonight as the low moves northeast (staying well offshore).
As far as temps go…Get ready for some big changes. Let’s look at this forecast high temperature map.
Forecast High Temps
Today we’ll see highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Meanwhile they’ll only see highs in the 20s in Minneapolis and teens in the Dakotas. Youch! That cold air will keep sliding southeast over the next 48 hours. So today and tomorrow we’ll see highs near 70. Then highs will be in the low 50s on Thursday. The first cold front will move through early on Thursday, but we are not expecting rain with that. A second front looks to move through on Friday. So that’s when we’ll see a few rain showers and the bigger temperature drop. Highs will only be in the mid 40s on Friday. We’ll see a few showers in the morning. It could possibly end as some wet melting snowflakes, but the models aren’t very aggressive with this this morning. No matter what falls it would melt anyway. Still…it’s interesting to even have a chance for Wintry weather in early November. I think this is a sign that we’ll be dealing with snow in December. It would probably be an offshore low throwing moisture at us after one of these cold bursts come through. Or we’ll get some lingering moisture on the back side of one of these fronts. Either way I’d head out and buy those snow shovels while the prices aren’t too high. Way too early for bread and milk though.
Some folks had some pretty rowdy weather yesterday evening. Others saw a brief gust of wind with a brief downpour and that was it. There weren’t too many thunderstorms, but the winds did gust above 40mph in a few locations. From the sound of it things were very windy with heavy downpours on the Eastern Shore.
Heavy Rain Yesterday
My weather watcher on the lower Eastern Shore (Doris) had about an inch of rain, and she said that the wind was strong for a while. Meanwhile Mike in Whaleyville only had a tenth of an inch of rain, and the wind wasn’t too bad. Here are some rain totals for the region:
Today we’ll have a lot of sunshine at first. Then an upper level pocket of energy will move through the region. This will increase the clouds, and could even produce a sprinkle. Winds will be northwest at 10-20mph. So highs will only rise to around 60. Tonight it will be pretty cold out. Winds will die down to northerly at 5-10mph. Lows will be in the 30s with some 40s near the shore.
Low Temps Tonight
Tomorrow we’ll have a lot of sunshine for the entire day. However, we’ll only see highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Winds will turn out of the south at 5-10mph. On Sunday I’m still seeing an offshore area of low pressure on the models. For now I’m only calling for a few showers over the Outer Banks. The models still aren’t in full agreement about the moisture from the system. One model has quite a bit of rain for the Outer Banks and a few showers in northeast North Carolina. Meanwhile another model has our region totally dry. So check back for updates, but I think the Hampton Roads area will remain dry on Sunday. We will warm up early next week, but some much colder air will move in by the end of the week. The models are calling for another Arctic Blast. Some say it will be tied into a very strong area of low pressure that will impact Alaska in the next 2 days. I’m not sure about the teleconnection, but the jetstream will definitely be heading south at that time.
The moisture has really increased over the last 24 hours. We were very dry over the last couple of days, but my how we’ve changed. What’s interesting is how far reaching the plume of moisture is. It is crawling up from the Gulf of Mexico and reaches all the way into the Canadian Maritimes.
The moisture has led to a lot of rain over parts of Texas. This has all pushed east, and the rain has now made it into Hampton Roads.
Rain In The Region
The moisture was focused out ahead of a large cold front. That front is sweeping east/southeast out of the Midwest this morning.
We’ll be cloudy all day so we won’t get too warm. But with pretty persistent southwest winds at 10-15mph we’ll raise the temperatures up to the low 70s.
Scattered showers will occur on and off today. This afternoon we could even see a few thunderstorms, although the instability will be rather low. Here is what Future Trak shows for 3pm.
Future Trak 3pm
The front will move in during the evening and will start dropping our temperatures to the low/mid 60s. Winds will turn out of the west. Then the rain will shut down by this evening around 9-10pm. Overall we’re looking at about a quarter to a half an inch of rain. I would suspect that the quarter inches will be more common.
Forecast Rain Totals
Tomorrow we’ll dry out and cool down. Highs will be in the low 60s. Winds will be northwest at 10-15mph. We’ll have fair skies. We’ll see lows in the 30s and 40s Saturday morning. Then highs will only rise to the mid 50s on Saturday afternoon. We will be dry. I mentioned in the last couple of blogs that a weak offshore low would form on Sunday. The latest models have dried things up quite a bit. They have the low weaker and farther out to sea now. So there may be a few showers for the Outer Banks, but otherwise Sunday is looking pretty good. However, I’ve kept in a slight chance for a shower for Sunday only because of the recent flip-flopping. I’ll probably take out the rain chances completely by this midday. We’ll warm up early next week, but we’ll see a big cool down later in the week.
In world news…This was brought to my attention recently by a viewer. Apparently the super typhoon Nuri in the Pacific Ocean is poised to become a monster storm in the north Pacific. It will become extratropical as it interacts with some colder air. I checked out a link with more info, and it’s possible this could become one of the strongest non-tropical areas of low pressure ever recorded. Here’s the link with more information: Monster Pacific Storm.
I also found this cool link that shows how humans have impacted some of their surroundings. It talks a little about Global Warming, but it mostly shows (via NASA satellite) how land use and pollution have changed large areas of geography. Here is the link for that: Humans Change The Environment.
It’s been like that lately. We’ve seen the clouds overhead, but the surface has been very dry. In fact my coworkers have been mentioning that their clothes have been very staticky lately even though it’s not Winter yet. You see, dry air allows electrical charge to build up on objects whereas more humid conditions will let the charge dissipate a little bit. So there’s less of a build-up. At least that’s my understanding of it. Currently the dew points are in the 30s.
Regional Dew Points
The humidity should pick up a little more tomorrow. If it doesn’t, then the rain chances will decrease. This area actually needs some rain. We are in the typically driest part of the year, but overall 2014 has been a wet year. We have had 0.09″ of rain over the past few days. We finished October with 1.57″ which was 1.85″ below the average for that month. We are ahead 2.67″ for the year, but remember we had a real wet period there for a while. Especially this last Summer. We are expecting scattered showers tomorrow which will bring a couple tenths of an inch to the region. We may see some more rain on Sunday, but it’s not a definite.
So let’s back up for a second and talk about the weather pattern. Today we have a lot of clouds in the region with rain over parts of the Midwest.
The drier lower levels should erode the clouds at least a bit. So I’m expecting them to thin out a bit around midday. Skies will go between mostly and partly cloudy skies. Luckily we’ll have southwest winds at 8-12mph. So temps will still manage to reach the low 70s.
The front to our west will pick up some speed and will move in by late tomorrow. We’ll see a few showers ahead of the front in the morning, but we’ll see more showers during the midday and the afternoon.
We may even see a few thunderstorms as the front passes, but overall the rain will be light and occasional. Here is Future Trak at 3pm Thursday:
Future Trak (3pm Thursday)
The rain will pull out by Thursday evening. Then we’ll dry out for Friday. Highs will be in the 70s tomorrow before the front dives in. Then we’ll see highs near 60 on Friday. We’ll be chilly on Saturday with fair skies. Highs will be in the low 50s. On Sunday we’ll still be cool, but an area of low pressure may bring some rain to the region. For now it looks like the low and most of the rain will stay offshore. However, the models keep going back and forth on how close it all is to Hampton Roads. One model yesterday had a deluge over us. The same model run prior to that was almost totally dry. We’ll have to let the models settle out before we can get a good forecast. I hope this is not a sign of what’s to come. If this happens over the Winter, then we may be calling for flurries one day and a foot of snow the next. Can’t wait…. (sarcasm).
How’s the weather out there? Nice! That what most folks will say today. It will be great weather for voters in the region. We started off with some milder temperatures this morning. Lows were in the 40s and 50s instead of the 20s, 30s, and 40s that we had the day before. Light southwest winds and a little cloud cover helped prop up the overnight temps. High pressure will stay in the region today, but it will move offshore a bit. So we’ll hold onto the southwest winds and sunshine through the day.
It’s also very dry outside. The relative humidity yesterday afternoon had dropped to 20-30%. Today the dew points are only in the 20s and 30s.
Regional Dew Points
That is bone-dry. We won’t get much moisture back in here until Thursday. We’ll be dry and mild for the next couple of days. Then a cold front will move through the region late Thursday. We’ll get some scattered rain showers then. By Friday we’ll cool down a little. Highs will be near 60. Then we’ll be even cooler on Saturday with highs in the 50s. On Sunday a weak area of low pressure will form offshore. It may bring a few showers to the region. but at this time the rain chances look low. Yesterday the models had it bringing rain right into the region. Now the models keep the rain just offshore. Stay tuned.
In science news there is one update that I thought was worth mentioning. I’ll admit I’ve never heard of “Far-Infrared Radiation”. At least I’ve never heard of it called that. However, there is some new research that suggests that it may partly be behind warming in the Arctic. Here is the article with more: Far-Infrared Warming.
On that note… I found another neat article about Winter Forecasts and their accuracy. It is a bit regional at times (Midwest), but still has some interesting points. Winter Forecasts Accurate?
If we keep up our current weather pattern, then it is only a matter of time before we get hit with some big snow. These huge upper level lows keep moving across the country with large cold surges right behind. As we get into the colder months these features are likely to move more to the south. So any coastal lows that form will be capable of throwing snow up our way. We’ll see if the pattern changes, but overall it hasn’t changed much in the last year. We’ll see what happens.
It was a very cold start to the day. As predicted, temperatures fell to the 20s and 30s inland with some 40s near the shore.
Temps This Morning
The wind was up for a bit along the shore, then it dropped before sunrise. So temps dropped in Virginia Beach to the 30s after holding in the 40s most of the night. The sun came out, and it will warm us up nicely this afternoon.
High pressure is in control of the region. So we’ll see a lot clear skies for the next 48 hours. Temps will warm up to near 60 today with a light west wind. Winds will turn out of the southwest tonight That should keep the temps a few degrees milder overnight. Lows will be in the 40s in the metro and near the shore with 30s inland. Don’t get me wrong though… It will still be quite chilly.
Tomorrow we’ll continue with a southwest wind. With the ample sunshine we’ll manage to get into the low 70s.
We’ll stay in the 70s on Wednesday and Thursday. Then a sizable cold front will move through the region. This will start dropping the temperatures by Friday. We’ll see scattered showers with the front on Thursday into early Friday. We are looking mostly at a cool dry weekend next Saturday and Sunday. It doesn’t look as cold as this last weekend, but it will be chilly. Highs will be in the 50s both days. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s. The models are showing some scattered showers trying to come back later on Sunday. They may hold off until the evening. We’ll refine those details as it gets closer.
Boo! That stands for 2 things in this blog. Firstly, it might get a little scary out there this evening for trick-or-treating. Not from the weather, but from the ghouls and goblins. Boo can also be said because the weather is going to be nasty late Saturday into early Sunday. Let’s start with the short-term forecast: Today we have a weak area of low pressure offshore. This is not the system that will affect us this weekend, but it is throwing some extra moisture our way this morning. So we have already increased our clouds.
The clouds will be with us through the day. A few showers will fall over the Outer Banks and northeast North Carolina. We could see a few sprinkles in Hampton Roads. Temps will be held down in the low 60s this afternoon. Winds will be out of the north at 10mph. As we get into the evening we’ll see a few more sprinkles in the region. The better chance for that will be along the coast. Meanwhile an area of low pressure is developing off to our west over the Midwest states. It will push east tonight and will arrive over our region tomorrow. This will be the big weather player for the weekend.
Area Of Low Pressure
We’ll start off Saturday with only an isolated shower or two, but the rain will pick up by Saturday afternoon/evening as the low pushes through.
Future Trak (Sat 9pm)
The low will move away by Saturday night and will push offshore. Winds will increase behind it. We’ll see gusts up to 30mph by late Saturday afternoon. They may not even increase until the evening, but winds will be gusting up to 45mph by Saturday night. That will happen more along the shore than inland. Winds will start out north-northeast, but they will be out of the north-northwest overnight. By Sunday morning the rain will come to an end. We’ll dry out as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds will stay up through the morning, but will taper off by the late afternoon. With the winds so strong we’ll see some minor tidal flooding. This will come from the tide mostly as the rainfall is only expected to be about a half inch up to an inch. So the tides will run about 1-2 feet above normal. Again this is mostly for Sunday.
Stay tuned for updates to the tide forecast. It is notorious for changing up until the last hour. Here’s a link for the updates from the National Weather Service: Tide Forecast.
Conditions will improve by Sunday night. However, we’ll see a new batch of problems. The temperatures behind this system are very cold. As the winds lighten up, the temps will be able to drop to near freezing. So lows will be in the low/mid 30s by Monday morning. There may even be a few upper 20s inland. (I hope not). So we’ll be looking at scattered to widespread frost. Some areas could even see a freeze. So it’s time to bring in the potted plants and the sensitive pets. At least you’ll get an extra hour of sleep this weekend. Yep! Time to roll the clocks back an hour Saturday night.
Yesterday was the last of the warm air for a while. Highs were in the upper 70s to near 80. Now things will just keep getting colder and colder. A cold front moved through last night and brought some scattered showers to the region.
Rain Showers Last Night
The Showers pushed out by 7am. We picked up about a quarter to a half an inch. Though most were closer to a quarter of an inch. Now today we’ll see cooler/drier conditions. High pressure is building in from the west as the front moves offshore.
Winds will be out of the north at about 5-15mph. Highs this afternoon will be in the mid 60s, but most of the day will be in 50s. Tomorrow the next big player in the weather game will set up to our west. A large area of low pressure (at the surface and aloft) will move out of the Midwest and move east. The force behind it is an unseasonably cold arimass that will dump out of Canada and pour to the south.
Some moisture will try to return to the region ahead of the cold front (see above map). This may bring a few spotty showers to the Outer Banks. Otherwise we’ll just see lots of clouds. Highs will be in the low 60s tomorrow with winds still out of the north. The weather looks ok for trick-or-treaters tomorrow. Temps will be in the 50s. So it will be cool. We are looking at a lot of clouds in the region in the evening.
The rain will move in on Saturday. It may come in more towards the afternoon, but we’ll see. The broad surface low will move through the entire region through the day with a sharper low developing just to our northeast by Saturday night. This is a newer feature in the models. Before it looked like a broad low for us with the sharper low up off the New England coast.
Future Trak (Saturday)
We’ll see rain showers, but a rain/sleet/snow mix will fall over the Appalachians. Hard to say if they’ll see accumulations as the surface will still be pretty warm. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a couple of melting ice pellets mix in with our rain here. It will be very cold in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Winds will be picking up through the day, but they won’t really get strong until Saturday evening as the low starts to push offshore. Then Saturday night and Sunday the winds may be gusting up to 45mph. It looks like there may be some minor tidal flooding on Sunday. Luckily the moon is in the half-moon phase. That doesn’t promote tidal flooding in-itself. We’ll have more details on the tide over the next couple of days.
We’ll be dry and windy on Sunday with highs in the low 50s. Lows will be in the 30s. By Sunday night the low will be long gone and winds will settle. High pressure will build in. The problem is that the temperatures will crash. We’ll see lows in the low/mid 30s. We could see some widespread frost in the region. Time to bring in the sensitive plants. We’ll warm up nicely into the middle of next week.