Just wanted to do a quick blog and tell you how nice the weekend is going to be.  High pressure will build in from the West.  This will give mostly sunny to sunny skies both days.  We’ll see some northerly winds on Saturday which will make it a little cool.  Highs will be in the upper 40s with a few inland 50s.  Then on Sunday we’ll have a light northwest wind.  That will let the highs reach the mid 50s.  Nice!  We have a higher sun angle now, so temperatures have a chance to really start warming up this time of year.  I’m calling for 60 on Monday.  Average highs are in the low/mid 50s.  We’ll be a  little cooler for Tuesday, but very mild for the end of the week.  A back door cold front may mess up my forecast for Wednesday/Thursday, but we’ll see.  For now I’m betting on warm.  Rain moves in late Wednesday (probably at night).  A better chance for rain next Thursday Friday. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Just thought I’d chime in here as the huge white elephant in the room (NAM model) has trended much wetter/snowier.  If we were to go with it right now then we’d probably be calling for about 10″ of snow from Rocky Mount up to Suffolk.  HOLD ON! That’s not what we’re doing  just yet.  Here’s my latest thinking:

The models have actually come into more agreement that the low will pass closer to the coast now.  About 150-250 miles from Hatteras.  Even the Canadian model has a similar solution.  Since the low is closer, it moves the precipitation further north now.  However, there still looks like a very large rain/snow mix zone setting up right over Hampton Roads which would limit amounts.  The NAM and Canadian model have a large strip of heavy precipitation from Raleigh up to about Suffolk from overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  However, this is also where the best chance for the rain/snow line will be during that time.  So there may be a very narrow band of heavy inland snow with virtually nothing 10-20 miles east of that boundary.  A lot of people may be wondering why I keep mentioning a mix.  I look at forecast thicknesses to help in determining precipitation type.  The colder the layer of atmosphere, the thinner it is.  To me the thicknesses show that there will be a wide area of mix.  Check out this site (Wxforecaster) and look at the critical thicknesses and precipitation areas.    The National Weather Service’s afternoon discussion is pretty good and covers this topic pretty well :  NWS discussion 

I’m very curious to see what our futuretrak model has for this event.  Don Slater will have it on the news this evening.  The morning run between 5:00 and 6:30.  The afternoon run tonight at 11:00pm. 

Also, some people are asking about how heavy precip can make it cold enough to snow.  When light precipitation falls it doesn’t drag the cold air down from the atmosphere very well.  But, if heavy rain or snow can fall, then it can literally grab the air and pull down the cold.  This effect makes what we call snow islands during this time of year where isolatd areas of snow are surrounded by wet ground.  It is also the effect of cooling things down during a thunderstorm in the Summer.  This may be the key to this upcoming forecast. 

Finally, the tide… I am still thinking minor to moderate tidal flooding.  The winds will be very strong with gusts up to 55mph possible.  Plus, the moon is close to full.  So the natural tide is a little higher anyway.  But the strongest winds will be more northerly and then northwesterly.  The northeast winds probably won’t last too long.  That is also why the southern Chesapeake Bay and Outer Banks would probably see the worst of the flooding.  For now the forecast is calling for Sewell’s Point getting close to 5ft.  This is the minor threshold.  I bet that this will increase to 5.5-6ft though. That is in the moderate category.  Severe would be closer to 7ft and I just don’t see that at this time.  Here is a link with the latest forecast: NWS tide.

Sorry that I can’t go into more detail, but even meteorologists have to cook dinner.  Fried chicken anyone?

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

I think I have a headache from looking so closely at the computer models.  Rather than pouring out all the details which will probably change, I’ll summarize what I’m seeing in the forecasts.

The overall weather pattern has not changed.  We’re still expecting an offshore low to move from the Gulf of Mexico to the northeast.  It is expected to stay offshore, but the NAM model brings it pretty close.  The GFS and NAM models both show some snow in the region.  The NAM is showing more of a mix in the metro for a longer time.  The highest amounts are about 2-3″ over inland Virginia/North Carolina.  Basically from east of Raleigh northeast up to Franklin/Williamsburg.  A lot of that probably on grass.  The low departs by Wednesday afternoon with maybe some flurries or light snow showers in its wake.  The GFS has a swath of about 1-2″ from Raleigh up to Hampton Roads.  Again that would probably be on grass.  It shows lighter amounts Wednesday morning, but over a wider area than the NAM.  It also moves the low away by Wednesday afternoon like the NAM. 

The Canadian model has flipped to dry again.  It has a possible 1-2″ over Northeast North Carolina with a mix for the Outer Banks.  It barely has anything for the metro.  The Navy (NOGAPS) is also completely dry again.  It has been dry for the last couple of days. 

A lot of you are going to want to ask me “how much for my area?”.  I won’t get too specific, but the trends are for nothing to light amounts from the Peninsula Northward.  An inch or two possible on the Eastern Shore before it’s over.  We could get 1-2″ on grassy surfaces on the Southside.  The highest amounts would probably be about 3″ over parts of Northeast North Carolina.  A mix for the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach with some light snow trying to fall there late Wednesday morning.  I still think that most of the area will be in the rain/snow mix zone.  I still think it will be tough to see those accumulations as the temperatures will probably be just above freezing for most of us.  I don’t want to completely downplay this system.  But we have 2 computer models now which are coming in dry.  We have highs near 50 tomorrow and in the lower 40s on Tuesday.  So the ground will be pretty warm.  Plus, with any mix it is almost impossible to see accumulations.  Things could trend snowier, but for now I just don’t see much for the metro area.  If this doesn’t do much, then don’t worry.  We’ll see a few more of these systems before mid April I’m sure.  See my previous discussions for more details on this developing system.  

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

A lot of people ask about the snow hope index.  I haven’t used it on air lately.  I think because a lot of people are tired of snow.  For the folks that aren’t though, here it is:  Snow Hope = 2 for now.  A 20% chance for seeing accumulating snow in the metro area of an inch or more.  While the name would suggest that I am a wishcaster, that is just not the case.  Jon Cash came up with the title.  I like to use it though as a fun way to represent the snow chances for upcoming events. 

Before we get to that system, our immediate forecast is pretty quiet.  A mix of clouds and sun today.  Highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Northwest winds at 10-20mph.  A sprinkle or two is possible early in the day.  Tonight into Monday high pressure builds in and clears us out.  High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low 50s.  That will warm up the ground pretty good (hint, hint).  Here’s the latest on the next weather system:

The Basics:  We are still forecasting for an area of low pressure to move up out of the Gulf of Mexico and ride up along the Southeast U.S. coast.  This will feed off of the warm Gulf Stream waters, and will also get an injection of energy from an upper level system.  This will let the low blow up offshore and move to the northeast. 

The Next Storm System

The wraparound moisture will probably bring rain showers to the region with some snow inland and a mix in between.  The rain/snow line may sit over us for a while causing a long period where there is a mix.  I’ve mentioned in a previous blog that we are going to probably see a lot of these big systems through the month of March. 

The Models (complex): Ok junior (and senior) meteorologists.  Here’s the latest updates.  The NAM model has this system in range now timewise.  It shows some rain here overnight Tuesday with a mix for inland Northeast North Carolina.  By Wednesday morning it has the low about 200 miles offshore from the Virginia/North Carolina border.  It looks like a mix in the metro southward with a possible band of heavy snow inland (vague for now).  It shows a possible snow bullseye near the border, but a bullseye at this time is almost meaningless.  If it’s there in 2 days, then I’ll get excited.  By Wednesday afternoon the low is beginning to move away.  We could see some light snow (maybe 1-2″) in the area if the cold air comes down from the north quickly.  But temperatures are expected to be above freezing.  So it probably won’t stick. 

The overnight run of the GFS has some light snow/rain starting up by Tuesday evening.  There may be some light snow over Northeast North Carolina by then.  Overnight Tuesday it has a mix from the Virginia Southside and Eastern shore on southward with a possible couple of inches over inland North Carolina up to about Suffolk.  Pretty dry from the Peninsula northward.  Then, it only has some light snow and/or rain showers from Wednesday morning onward.  So the latest run is earlier and shows less than before. 

The Canadian model starts up the precip Wednesday morning.  It does hint at a narrow band of heavy snow over inland Virginia/North Carolina with a mix as you get closer to the coast and metro area.  We could see a little light snow near the coast after the morning, but would probably go back to a mix in the afternoon with temperatures above freezing.   The European model is a tad further offshore with the low.  While that does mean a colder scenario, it may also mean that more moisture stays offshore as well. 

My Gut:This is looking like a typical Hampton Roads event.  With a lot of mix and only a few areas that could see snow on the ground.  For now the focus is inland near the Virginia/North Carolina state line.  I don’t see much for north of the metro.  I’m detailing this next system because it could be something, but it’s very possible that we won’t see any snow on the ground in the metro area.  The precip type from the GFS showed mostly rain here with some heavy snow towards Raleigh.  GFS snow.  Even if it does snow, then the ground will be pretty warm and there will probably be some rain on the ground.  So it would be hard for anything to stick.  That is unless a band of heavy snow can set up. 

We’ll see how it plays out, but again this is not looking like a big event for Hampton Roads.  If the low sits for a while just offshore, then maybe we’ll see a big event.  Nothing is really showing that though for now.  As usual…stay tuned!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Sorry.  This is out a bit later than I had hoped.  There weren’t any big updates from earlier today with the exception of the Canadian model which flip-flopped a little.  The Canadian model is now further offshore…again.  It doesn’t really start the light precipitation until overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  It has a rain/snow mix for the general area between midnight and 8am with some light snow inland.  It dries things out by the late morning with only some flurries and light snow showers through the afternoon.  The low moving away from us at that time.   Not much snow with that update. 

  The afternoon run of the GFS is model choice for snow lovers.  It shows some light snow starting up over far inland N.C. by Tuesday evening.  By Wednesday morning it has some light snow inland Virginia/North Carolina with a  mix for the metro and southward.  By mid morning Wednesday though, the low is moving away.  It shows some light snow on the Eastern shore at that time, but slim pickins for the rest of the area.  The Navy (NOGAPS) model is still dry and keeps everything out to sea. 

Tomorrow the system will be in range (timewise) of the NAM.  Then we can start getting a little more specific.  Overall this is not shaping up to be the big one.  If it even becomes anything.  With the speed and track of the low it looks like our northeast winds will not last that long.  Instead we will have a longer period of northerly winds.  That is not as conducive to tidal flooding as the northeast winds.  So maybe some minor tidal flooding will occur and we can hold off on the moderate.  Stay tuned!

Again, sorry this is just a short update, but those are the latest trends.  Have a good night.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The forecast for today hasn’t changed much.  That area of low pressure is still spinning up north of New York City.  It is giving us some cloudiness today though, and a sprinkle is not out of the question.  Tomorrow will be similar.  Dry on the whole, but clouds will come and go.  Highs will be in the 40s. 

This system coming on on Tuesday/Wednesday is another fun one to forecast (hint of sarcasm).  See my previous post for more detail on that.  Here’s the update though:

The overnight GFS model is a litle less snowy than yesterday’s run, but is still showing some possible heavy snow inland on Wednesday morning with  a rain/snow mix in the metro.  That mix could change over to all snow for a brief period in Hampton Roads, but with light amounts here.  The most recent Canadian model has actually trended closer to the coast now.  That was a little surprising.  It is also showing some possible heavy snow inland, but the rain/snow line looks to be just west of Hampton Roads in the morning.  A changeover also looks possible on the Canadian with a possible inch or two across the viewing area.  The Navy is still dry and totally offshore, but it is usually the driest of the models anyway.  So I’m not putting much weight on that one for now. 

So with those changes, it’s possible that the models are starting to hone in on a solution.  It wouldn’t mean much snow for our area, but some.  Inland could get it pretty good though.  Inland as in Emporia, maybe Franklin and Ahoskie.  We’ll see.  It’s too far out to really get specific with amounts.  For now I’d say a good 2-4″ are possible inland with about an inch elsewhere.  Tomorrow the system will be in range of the NAM model.  then we can do some more specific forecasts.  I’m in again tonight, so check back for an evening update using this morning’s model runs.

Ta Ta for now. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

There have been some pretty big systems forming in the last week or two.  This next system coming in is going to be another one (in terms of strength).  Hold your horses though for determining a big snow for Hampton Roads.  Before we get to that… we are still dealing with some effects from the last system.  Here is the afternoon Satellite/Radar:

New York and New Jersey are getting pummeled.  They are getting upwards of 2-3 feet of snow. Here is a report from the National Weather Service up there:

0757 AM     HEAVY SNOW       MAYBROOK                41.49N 74.21W
02/26/2010  U0.0 INCH        ORANGE             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROOF COLLAPSES TO RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES DUE TO
            HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

Wow!  Locally, we have had wind.  Gusts have been up to near 30mph in some locations.  There has also been some light precipitation north of the metro area.  Winds and precipitation should taper off this evening. 

We’ll enjoy some quiet time this weekend.  Fair skies both Saturday and Sunday and highs in the 40s.  But what about the next big system??? Cue the Scooby Doo Creepy Music. 

Here’s the latest:

The Basic:  Another strong area of low pressure is expected to move out of the Gulf of Mexico and up along the coast.  Some models keep it pretty far offshore, but one especially has it hugging the coast and throws down some big snow in inland Virginia/North Carolina.  The time frame is from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.  It is forecast to be a strong low/Nor’easter system.  Even if we don’t get much snow, then tidal flooding may be an issue.  Not as bad as the 09′ Nor’easter due to its fast passage, but possibly some minor to moderate. 

The Complex (Model Speak):  I’ll talk about 3 mid-long range models here.  Maybe 4.  The GFS is the snowiest of the computer models.  It keeps a rain snow mix over Hampton Roads until midnight Wednesday.  By Wednesday morning it moves the rain/snow line into our area and we could transition over to all snow.  Emphasis on could.  Up to that point it drops somewhere between 6-10″” in parts of central Virginia/North Carolina.  It brings about 2-4″ here from Wednesday morning through the afternoon.  It does keep the low a little closer to the coast.  It is forecasting a 984 mb (millibar) low 100-200 miles East of Virginia Beach on Wednesday morning.  It moves it towards the Northeast states by Wednesday evening.  We could get some light snow or flurries from the wraparound moisture.

The Canadian model has the low further offshore through the whole process.  It forecasts some light snow here from overnight Wednesday through Wednesday morning, but nothing compared to the GFS.  Totals are only about 1-2″ for the region.  almost nothing for inland Virginia.  Big difference.

The European follows the Canadian model fairly closesly as far as the track.  It doesn’t show precipitaton amounts.  (At least the site that I use) European, but if it follows the Canadian then there may not be much snow here.  We would see a lot of wind though with any of the models.  Finally, the Navy model is showing an offshore event and doesn’t even really have anything for us. 

Odds are that the GFS will trend towards the other models, but we’ll see.  It is still early.  Patience.  We’ll get fresh view of the trends tomorrow.  Then it should be in range of the NAM by Sunday morning.  I’ll write some blogs over the weekend telling you my thoughts. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Hello loyal fans.  Just so you know… the reason I haven’t written much lately is due to my wacky yet temporary schedule.  This is a rough blog based off of the latest models and what Don was forecasting earlier this evening.  At the time of this writing, A Winter Storm Warning was in effect for the Northern Neck and Accomack county.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the rest of the area with the exception of most of northeast North Carolina.  The bottom line is this: a very big/strong area of low pressure is beginning to develop south of here.  A strong upper level low is coming in from the Midwest.  The upper low is going to feed the surface low some energy and turn it into a type of snow hurricane in the Northeast States.  The surface low is expected to stay offshore.  As Jon mentioned at the midday show this is a tough forecast.  The rain/snow line is expected to slowly creep east from Central Virginia tonight at a snails pace.  It may not make it to Norfolk/Virginia Beach by the time the precipitation ends.  Let the races begin.

Chief meteorologist Don Slater gave his latest snowfall forecast this evening.  Before I throw out the numbers, just note that I feel that a lot of this will be on grassy areas and not on the roads.  Surface temperatures will be tough to get down to the freezing mark until morning.  Let alone below freezing.  When the north/northwest winds kick in, then cold air can start to move down.   But that probably won’t happen until Thursday morning.  Anyway, Don had 1-2″ of snowfall for the Southside, Hampton, the Lower Eastern Shore, and from Chowan county N.C. northeastward into southern Chesapeake.  He had 2-3″ for Surry county, Newport News, Williamsburg, the Middle Peninsula (Gloucester/Mathews) and part of Accomack county.  4-6 possible inches on the Northern Neck and up towards Chincoteague.  Again keep in mind that a lot of the lower amounts will be on grass.  Areas north of the metro will see the cold air sooner so may see some on the secondaries.  (IF) your county/city gets a heavy localized snow burst, then that will force enough snow to cover some roads as well.  The National Weather Service mentioned this possibility in their earlier discussion.  Snow may continue into Friday in the Winter Storm Warning area.  Hence the higher amounts forecast there. 

Our futuretrak model had a lot of rain/snow mix over the area.  I think that it may have a pretty good handle on things, and would therefore mean the lower end of the ranges above. 

As the surface low moves towards New England it will bomb out.  I saw 970millibars (mb) forecast on the models.  That is pretty low.  This will produce blizzard conditions over a large area.  For us it means that we’ll see some very strong persistent Northwest winds for a couple of days. We could see some gusts up to 45mph. 

Don may get on here later and blog some more.  He can add more detail.  If not, then Jon will be in early tomorrow I’m sure.  Good night Mrs. Callabash wherever you are. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Boy oh boy!  Today was great.  We saw highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and sun the whole way through.  I got to wash my car which was long overdue.  If I were to go with the computer models today, then I would have said that highs were going to be in the lower 50s.  They have really been undercutting the daytime temperatures.  So despite more cloud cover tomorrow, I am going for highs near 60.  (We saw some 60s inland today).  Here’s the temperature trend for the next 3 days:

Temperature Trend

I had a great blog written yesterday.  It took me about a half an hour to create.  Then…kablooey!  As I hit publish, it magically disappeared.  So, I’ll try and recreate it as best as I can.  No it didn’t autosave the draft like it was supposed to. 

A while back I wrote a blog about the long range forecast, and it’s time to collect on some bragging rights.  In early December 09′ I wrote a weather blog predicting the snow chances for this Winter through mid January.  Here it is: Old Blog  The forecast is towards the bottom.  Looks like I did pretty good on that. 

There are several reasons why we’ve had the weather that we’ve had.  There has been a significant snowpack over a large portion of the country.  That allows for the cold air to reside longer over a location.  This has even been the case even locally with snow still on the ground up until this week north and west of the metro.  Another factor has been the progressive pattern that we’ve been in.  That means that systems have been moving through rather quickly.  One reason for that is the weather pattern in the Atlantic Ocean called the North Atlantic Oscillation.  It is somewhat similar to El Nino, but is in the Atlantic.  It has been negative for a while, which I believe has promoted that quick moving.  This allowed a lot of systems to move into a cold airmass before any southerly winds could warm us up as in previous years.  Also, I’ve heard a little about the Arctic Oscillation, and heard that it has been negative as well.  Here is a great reference from NASA the explains it for this Winter.  Scroll to the bottom for reading.  This phenomenon is supposed to allow for cold air to keep moving down out of Canada.    The southern branch of the jetstream has been pretty active too.  All of this has added up to help us get snow.  We’ve had 8.3″ of snow at Norfolk so far this year.  Much higher amounts north/west of Norfolk. 

After that paragraph of true nerdiness, here are some numbers.  These are the number of days with high temperatures below 50 degrees for the December, January, February period for the last 4 years. 

2009/2010:          December- 16,     January-20,    February-16*

2008/2009:         December-7,       January-21,     February-11

2007/2008:         December-8,        January-16,     February-8

2006/2007:          December-5,       January-14,     February-18

*Month not over yet.

I got this info from the National Weather Service’s website.  It required a lot of adding, so hopefully I didn’t miscount.  You can see that the last 2 years were noticeably colder, but there was also a cold period in February of 07′.  I remember that power bill.  Whoa!  I also did the number of days below 40 degrees, but maybe that’s too many numbers for this blog.  Just know that There were much more this year compared to 2006-2009. 

Going forward, I think this pattern will keep up for a while.  We’ll probably have the brief warmup this week, and then return to the cold pattern by next weekend.  We easily have more chances for snow until probably mid April.  Remember we have  had chances for snow up through April for the last 2 years.  Maybe 3.  We’ll probably start to see some more large systems as we go into March.  Probably more Nor’easters or coastal runners.  The northern and southern branches of the jetstream will probably phase/merge more often creating these bigger systems.  I expect that overall we’ll stay cool for the next couple of months.  We’ll probably start to get some brief warmups.  More brief than usual.  I’m looking forward to some warmer temperatures.  Highs on Monday will be in the upper 50s in some areas.  We’ll definetely cool down towards next weekend though.  There’s no snow in the 7 day forecast, but we may see a good sized system Wednesday into Thursday.  Wind and rain are forecast, but some far inland sections could see a little snow at the end.  We’ll see. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler