That pocket of showers just west of Hampton Roads was picked up by Future Trak, but the model weakens it as it moves into Hampton Roads.  It is one of the spokes of energy that are swinging around a big area of low pressure. This will keep bringing a few rounds of showers to the region through Monday night.  The chance for rain is about 30-40%.  Sun will peek out at times, but there will be a lot of clouds overall. 

The big area of low pressure is mostly in the upper levels.  Here is the forecast map for today which includes the surface low placement:

Today the low is basically overtop of us. The center is to the north, but it is a very broad low.  Tomorrow the surface low will move offshore a little bit:

As the surface low moves offshore tomorrow we’ll see the winds out of the north pick up.  This will make for a cool day with highs near 50.  Today highs will be in the mid-upper 50s.  We’ll see some nice weather just in time for St. Patrick’s Day on Wednesday.  Highs will be back to the upper 50s to near 60.  Guess the Irish are lucky this year.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Super Doppler 10 This morning

 After the morning round of showers I think we’ll get a little clearing.  Scattered showers will return through the afternoon though.  A few thunderstorms are possible, but should be isolated.  The Flood Watch from last night has been cancelled.  So far we’ve picked up between a half an inch to a little over an inch.  Doris on the lower Eastern Shore had a total of 1.25″ this morning with more to come.  Mike in Whaleyville had 0.6″.  Pam in Gloucester 1.5″.  Norfolk International had 0.8″ this morning , but more is falling as I write this.  So far this month we’ve 2.33″ of rain.  This is 0.76″ above normal.  10.35″ for the year so far.  This is 1.51″ above the average. 

We could see another half an inch today, but the amounts will vary by location.  Luckily the winds have dropped off. They’ll be out of the southwest this afternoon at about 10-15mph. 

Showers will linger into Monday.  But the rain chances Sunday and Monday are not that great.  About a 30% (maybe 40%) chance.  The sun will pop out at times between this afternoon and Monday, but the big low pressure system will create a lot of cloud cover during the period. 

On Monday the low will be offshore. This will pick the winds up out of the north behind it.  That will make for a much cooler day with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.  We could also see some minor tidal flooding  Monday into Tuesday. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Future Trak tomorrow morning

At the time of this writing, there is a line of showers just west of Raleigh that is moving East/Northeast.  I think this line will make it through the viewing area before sunrise tomorrow.  The models don’t have a good handle on this.  After this line then more scattered showers are expected on and off through the day.  We do have a Flood Watch still in effect, but at this point I don’t think we’ll see too much flooding.  So far the area has picked up about a half inch to a little over an inch.  We may see another half in to an inch, but amounts are not as high as this morning’s forecasts. 

The wind has really been up this evening.  Wind gusts have been up to 40mph near the shore.  This will continue for a few more hours before our meso (medium sized) low starts to weaken.  A wind advisory is in effect for the Eastern Shore, but the gusts have been all along the coastline.  Winds tomorrow Southeast then southwest at 10-20mph with a few gusts 25-30mph in the morning. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Flood Watch

 An area of heavy rain is forecast to set up here.  However, the placement of the heaviest rain is in question.  I’m calling for a solid area of 1-2″ across the region.  Even outside of the Watch.  However, the watch area may see 2-5″ of rain if this system sets up a certain way.  An area of low pressure is gradually moving up from the south and will keep moving northward.  An occluded front will move up with the low.  This front will be a focus for heavy rain.  The difference between the cool air mass from the west and the coastal warm/humid airmass will create scattered  downpours.  However, A couple of the computer models (including futuretrak) keep the heaviest rain just offshore.  The NAM model hits the area from Mathews to Melfa northward hard with heavy rain from Saturday morning through the evening, while the GFS is more broad and keeps the heaviest rain along or just off the coast.  I’ll dig in deeper here this evening, but I have to prepare the show.  So the bottom line for now is that rain is in the forecast for any parades tomorrow morning.  Whether the rain is light and scattered or heavy and widespread is the question I’ll try to answer by tonight.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Enjoy the warm temps.  The long term pattern shows a brief cool down with mild weather then resuming for a little while longer. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

  This effect allows for the sun to heat up the air temperature quite a bit during dry, calm, and sunny days.  Humidity can temper this effect.  That’s why deserts can have a huge diurnal (day-night) temperature swing, yet coastal cities have less of a change.  We’ll have a west wind which will not allow the maritime air to affect most of the viewing area.  Cities on the water will be a little tempered though. 

Anyway, later this week.  The weather pattern will allow for a big warmup.  A large area of low presssure will develop in the central U.S.  It will slowly drift east Wednesday through Saturday.

Warmer Weather Ahead

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The models have actually come into more agreement that the low will pass closer to the coast now.  About 150-250 miles from Hatteras.  Even the Canadian model has a similar solution.  Since the low is closer, it moves the precipitation further north now.  However, there still looks like a very large rain/snow mix zone setting up right over Hampton Roads which would limit amounts.  The NAM and Canadian model have a large strip of heavy precipitation from Raleigh up to about Suffolk from overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  However, this is also where the best chance for the rain/snow line will be during that time.  So there may be a very narrow band of heavy inland snow with virtually nothing 10-20 miles east of that boundary.  A lot of people may be wondering why I keep mentioning a mix.  I look at forecast thicknesses to help in determining precipitation type.  The colder the layer of atmosphere, the thinner it is.  To me the thicknesses show that there will be a wide area of mix.  Check out this site (Wxforecaster) and look at the critical thicknesses and precipitation areas.    The National Weather Service’s afternoon discussion is pretty good and covers this topic pretty well :  NWS discussion 

I’m very curious to see what our futuretrak model has for this event.  Don Slater will have it on the news this evening.  The morning run between 5:00 and 6:30.  The afternoon run tonight at 11:00pm. 

Also, some people are asking about how heavy precip can make it cold enough to snow.  When light precipitation falls it doesn’t drag the cold air down from the atmosphere very well.  But, if heavy rain or snow can fall, then it can literally grab the air and pull down the cold.  This effect makes what we call snow islands during this time of year where isolatd areas of snow are surrounded by wet ground.  It is also the effect of cooling things down during a thunderstorm in the Summer.  This may be the key to this upcoming forecast. 

Finally, the tide… I am still thinking minor to moderate tidal flooding.  The winds will be very strong with gusts up to 55mph possible.  Plus, the moon is close to full.  So the natural tide is a little higher anyway.  But the strongest winds will be more northerly and then northwesterly.  The northeast winds probably won’t last too long.  That is also why the southern Chesapeake Bay and Outer Banks would probably see the worst of the flooding.  For now the forecast is calling for Sewell’s Point getting close to 5ft.  This is the minor threshold.  I bet that this will increase to 5.5-6ft though. That is in the moderate category.  Severe would be closer to 7ft and I just don’t see that at this time.  Here is a link with the latest forecast: NWS tide.

Sorry that I can’t go into more detail, but even meteorologists have to cook dinner.  Fried chicken anyone?

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The overall weather pattern has not changed.  We’re still expecting an offshore low to move from the Gulf of Mexico to the northeast.  It is expected to stay offshore, but the NAM model brings it pretty close.  The GFS and NAM models both show some snow in the region.  The NAM is showing more of a mix in the metro for a longer time.  The highest amounts are about 2-3″ over inland Virginia/North Carolina.  Basically from east of Raleigh northeast up to Franklin/Williamsburg.  A lot of that probably on grass.  The low departs by Wednesday afternoon with maybe some flurries or light snow showers in its wake.  The GFS has a swath of about 1-2″ from Raleigh up to Hampton Roads.  Again that would probably be on grass.  It shows lighter amounts Wednesday morning, but over a wider area than the NAM.  It also moves the low away by Wednesday afternoon like the NAM. 

The Canadian model has flipped to dry again.  It has a possible 1-2″ over Northeast North Carolina with a mix for the Outer Banks.  It barely has anything for the metro.  The Navy (NOGAPS) is also completely dry again.  It has been dry for the last couple of days. 

A lot of you are going to want to ask me “how much for my area?”.  I won’t get too specific, but the trends are for nothing to light amounts from the Peninsula Northward.  An inch or two possible on the Eastern Shore before it’s over.  We could get 1-2″ on grassy surfaces on the Southside.  The highest amounts would probably be about 3″ over parts of Northeast North Carolina.  A mix for the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach with some light snow trying to fall there late Wednesday morning.  I still think that most of the area will be in the rain/snow mix zone.  I still think it will be tough to see those accumulations as the temperatures will probably be just above freezing for most of us.  I don’t want to completely downplay this system.  But we have 2 computer models now which are coming in dry.  We have highs near 50 tomorrow and in the lower 40s on Tuesday.  So the ground will be pretty warm.  Plus, with any mix it is almost impossible to see accumulations.  Things could trend snowier, but for now I just don’t see much for the metro area.  If this doesn’t do much, then don’t worry.  We’ll see a few more of these systems before mid April I’m sure.  See my previous discussions for more details on this developing system.  

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler