Wow!  Yesterday was just as nice as forecast…sort of.  Actually it got a little hotter than I thought by about 3-5 degrees.  So some inland locations got into the 80s. 

Highs Yesterday

Today the computer models were telling me that we will see some cooler weather.  I disagreed.  I think they are overplaying the cloud cover, but we’ll only see partly cloudy skies later this afternoon after a mostly sunny start.  Plus, we had such a warm start with lows in the low 50s.  Winds will be South/Southwest at 10-15mph.  So to me this spells out similar highs this afternoon despite the extra clouds and despite these infernal machines. (Overly dramatic I know). 

Speaking of dramatic…how about the difference in weather between here and the Midwest.  Look at the radar from this morning:

Snow In The Deep South

Snow fell from Illinois down to Louisiana.  Amazing!  We’ll have a big cool down from this system, but no snow here.  There will probably be some snow in the mountains over western Virginia though.  The storm system will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow.  We could see some strong wind gusts, but I don’t think we’ll see severe weather.  It’s not out of the question, but instability will be lacking in the morning.  Behind the system we will get the cool down on Tuesday.  Temperatures at the 850mb (millibars of pressure) level will be 0 to -2.  That is what we look for for snow, but it will be too warm at the surface.  So don’t get your hopes up.  Again, that won’t be the case in the mountains though.  

    Temperatures will rebound quickly by Wednesday.  Highs will  be back in the 60s.   However, the long term models show another big cool down 9-10 days out.  The models keep advertising these cool downs though, and they don’t pan out as strong as advertised.  So we’ll see.  If it does pan out, then highs may be in the 40s for a day.  10 days out…confidence is low on that.  Stay tuned!

Anyway, enjoy the weather today.  Put on the sunscreen if your out for a long period of time.  UV index today is 6-7. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Hello to the first day of Spring!  It’s hard to believe that we will be seeing highs in the mid 70s when it will be snowing in central Illinois and Missouri today.  Here’s the satellite/radar from this morning:

Remember blue is snow on that image.  High pressure will dominate our weather this weekend.  High temperatures will be in the 70s with the exception of cities right along the shore.  Temperatures there will be in the upper 60s.  The bays and sounds are warming up though.  The Bay temperatures are in the lower 50s now.  The ocean temperatures are also in the 50s.  It will be a while before we can jump in without a wetsuit. 

With the warmer temperatures comes sprouting plants.  Things are starting to pop up nicely.  Some of you have probably already had to cut the grass even.  My yard is about due.  Along with the plants come the allergies.  We are heading into allergy season, and my nose is starting to feel it.  According to pollen.com the pollen is low-moderate for the weekend with trees being the main allergen. 

By the way a lot of folks are thinking that we’ll see less mosquitoes this year since we had a cold Winter.  Not so fast!  We did have a chilly Winter, but we never really had lows near 0 or below.  We only had a couple of mornings with lows in the teens if I remember right.  Also, we had a very wet Winter.  Bugs can use that to their advantage as subsoil moisture is harder to freeze.  Mosquitoes lay there eggs before the cold sets in. These pests can survive through Winter and start to pop out in the Spring.  From my experience you need a dry Winter with a rapid/hard freeze to reduce the insect numbers.  They are resilient.  So don’t be surprised to see the pests out pretty soon. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Well, as we broadcast today, the rain moved out just in time for the St. Patrick’s Day parade yesterday.  A little drizzle maybe at the start, but they lucked out this year.  We’ll see some more scattered showers today, but it won’t be a washout by any means.  In case you don’t know…a washout basically means an all day rain or a long stretch of time.  Again, that won’t be the case today.  Here was a snapshot of the satellite/radar from this morning:

That pocket of showers just west of Hampton Roads was picked up by Future Trak, but the model weakens it as it moves into Hampton Roads.  It is one of the spokes of energy that are swinging around a big area of low pressure. This will keep bringing a few rounds of showers to the region through Monday night.  The chance for rain is about 30-40%.  Sun will peek out at times, but there will be a lot of clouds overall. 

The big area of low pressure is mostly in the upper levels.  Here is the forecast map for today which includes the surface low placement:

Today the low is basically overtop of us. The center is to the north, but it is a very broad low.  Tomorrow the surface low will move offshore a little bit:

As the surface low moves offshore tomorrow we’ll see the winds out of the north pick up.  This will make for a cool day with highs near 50.  Today highs will be in the mid-upper 50s.  We’ll see some nice weather just in time for St. Patrick’s Day on Wednesday.  Highs will be back to the upper 50s to near 60.  Guess the Irish are lucky this year.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

It is damp and drizzly this morning in Hampton Roads. There are some light showers and patchy fog.  Temperatures were mild this morning.  We were at 58 degrees in Portsmouth at 9:00am. This was the view from Super Doppler 10 at around that time:

Super Doppler 10 This morning

 After the morning round of showers I think we’ll get a little clearing.  Scattered showers will return through the afternoon though.  A few thunderstorms are possible, but should be isolated.  The Flood Watch from last night has been cancelled.  So far we’ve picked up between a half an inch to a little over an inch.  Doris on the lower Eastern Shore had a total of 1.25″ this morning with more to come.  Mike in Whaleyville had 0.6″.  Pam in Gloucester 1.5″.  Norfolk International had 0.8″ this morning , but more is falling as I write this.  So far this month we’ve 2.33″ of rain.  This is 0.76″ above normal.  10.35″ for the year so far.  This is 1.51″ above the average. 

We could see another half an inch today, but the amounts will vary by location.  Luckily the winds have dropped off. They’ll be out of the southwest this afternoon at about 10-15mph. 

Showers will linger into Monday.  But the rain chances Sunday and Monday are not that great.  About a 30% (maybe 40%) chance.  The sun will pop out at times between this afternoon and Monday, but the big low pressure system will create a lot of cloud cover during the period. 

On Monday the low will be offshore. This will pick the winds up out of the north behind it.  That will make for a much cooler day with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.  We could also see some minor tidal flooding  Monday into Tuesday. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The latest models are still backing off of the widespread rain in the morning.  They’re still calling for some scattered showers though.  The chance for rain is 30-50% as opposed to the 50-70% that we were looking at before.  Here is a snapshot from our latest Futuretrak run: 

Future Trak tomorrow morning

At the time of this writing, there is a line of showers just west of Raleigh that is moving East/Northeast.  I think this line will make it through the viewing area before sunrise tomorrow.  The models don’t have a good handle on this.  After this line then more scattered showers are expected on and off through the day.  We do have a Flood Watch still in effect, but at this point I don’t think we’ll see too much flooding.  So far the area has picked up about a half inch to a little over an inch.  We may see another half in to an inch, but amounts are not as high as this morning’s forecasts. 

The wind has really been up this evening.  Wind gusts have been up to 40mph near the shore.  This will continue for a few more hours before our meso (medium sized) low starts to weaken.  A wind advisory is in effect for the Eastern Shore, but the gusts have been all along the coastline.  Winds tomorrow Southeast then southwest at 10-20mph with a few gusts 25-30mph in the morning. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

As advertised the rain is upon us. It is a soggy/soupy day with clouds, showers, and high humidity.  Dewpoints have risen into the 60s.  This is becoming a tough forecast.  A Flood Watch has been p0sted for all of the Virginia cities/counties in the viewing area. 

Flood Watch

 An area of heavy rain is forecast to set up here.  However, the placement of the heaviest rain is in question.  I’m calling for a solid area of 1-2″ across the region.  Even outside of the Watch.  However, the watch area may see 2-5″ of rain if this system sets up a certain way.  An area of low pressure is gradually moving up from the south and will keep moving northward.  An occluded front will move up with the low.  This front will be a focus for heavy rain.  The difference between the cool air mass from the west and the coastal warm/humid airmass will create scattered  downpours.  However, A couple of the computer models (including futuretrak) keep the heaviest rain just offshore.  The NAM model hits the area from Mathews to Melfa northward hard with heavy rain from Saturday morning through the evening, while the GFS is more broad and keeps the heaviest rain along or just off the coast.  I’ll dig in deeper here this evening, but I have to prepare the show.  So the bottom line for now is that rain is in the forecast for any parades tomorrow morning.  Whether the rain is light and scattered or heavy and widespread is the question I’ll try to answer by tonight.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The super dry conditions are gone.  The dew points have crept up from the teens to the mid 40s.  There are some clouds out today, but temperatures are shooting up quickly. Highs today will be in the low/mid 70s inland.  Near 70 along the shore.  It feels great.  A nice taste of Spring.  By tomorrow it will feel a little soupy compared to what we are used to.  The latest run of the NAM model shows a lot less rain for tomorrow’s forecast.  I’m still calling for scattered showers, but definitely not an all day rain.  There will be a lot of cloud cover so temps will not be quite as warm.  With the increasing humidity it will feel just as warm though.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s until Saturday.  On Sunday some cooler air will push in from the west.  The big area of low pressure that we’ve been talking about will actually be a couple of areas of low pressure.  These will generally sit over us Friday and Saturday.  On Sunday the dominant low will sit just north of here.  This should allow for some drying as the winds come off the mountains, but it may be close enough that there will be a low chance for an early/brief shower that morning.  Definitely a lot cooler on Monday.  Highs will be in the lower 50s.  There may even be some snow in the mountains.  We’ll see.  As far as rain totals go… It’s looking like the heaviest rain will fall well south of our area.  We could see 1-2″ over the next 4 days, but 3-5″ of rain may fall down towards South Carolina and Georgia. 

Enjoy the warm temps.  The long term pattern shows a brief cool down with mild weather then resuming for a little while longer. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

We have had some great weather for the past couple of days.  Today is another great one.  We are thawing out (temporarily) from this long Winter.  The first day of Spring is just around the corner, but don’t be surprised if that is when we are back in the 50s for highs.  Regardless, the next few days will see some very warm temperatures.  We will see highs in the 60s and 70s.  Average highs are in the mid 50s.  A large area of low pressure to our west is slowly moving towards us.  Out ahead of it we will develop southerly winds.  This will help up the temps and it will also increase the moisture.  So we’ll also have a chance for showers Thursday through Saturday.  We won’t be breaking any records, but it will be a nice break from the cold.  Enjoy!  Also… don’t forget the sunscreen if you are working outside for a long time. We’ve spent the whole Winter (especially this one) inside or bundled up in thick coats.  Our skin isn’t ready for the full Sprintime sun.  You’ll thank me later. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Yesterday was cool as predicted.  That north wind always makes the difference.  However, today we’ll have some light west winds which will help boost our temperatures.  It may seem crazy, but temperatures will warm up 30 degrees or more from this morning’s low temperatures.  Lows were in the upper 20s inland, and some of those locations will get up to near 60 degrees today.  It’s the higher sun angle that promotes this.  The solar angle is about 50 degrees in the sky now by my calculations.  That is the angle you would get if you pointed your arm due south and raised it up to the height of the sun at noon time.  It wouldn’t be directly over our heads (90 degrees) unless we were further south.  Remember on the Summer Solstice the sun lies directly overhead at 23.5 degrees Latitude.  Right now the sun is still south of the equator.  At least for it’s zenith (directly overhead).  Norfolk sits at about 36.8 degrees latitude.   

  This effect allows for the sun to heat up the air temperature quite a bit during dry, calm, and sunny days.  Humidity can temper this effect.  That’s why deserts can have a huge diurnal (day-night) temperature swing, yet coastal cities have less of a change.  We’ll have a west wind which will not allow the maritime air to affect most of the viewing area.  Cities on the water will be a little tempered though. 

Anyway, later this week.  The weather pattern will allow for a big warmup.  A large area of low presssure will develop in the central U.S.  It will slowly drift east Wednesday through Saturday.

Warmer Weather Ahead

Just wanted to do a quick blog and tell you how nice the weekend is going to be.  High pressure will build in from the West.  This will give mostly sunny to sunny skies both days.  We’ll see some northerly winds on Saturday which will make it a little cool.  Highs will be in the upper 40s with a few inland 50s.  Then on Sunday we’ll have a light northwest wind.  That will let the highs reach the mid 50s.  Nice!  We have a higher sun angle now, so temperatures have a chance to really start warming up this time of year.  I’m calling for 60 on Monday.  Average highs are in the low/mid 50s.  We’ll be a  little cooler for Tuesday, but very mild for the end of the week.  A back door cold front may mess up my forecast for Wednesday/Thursday, but we’ll see.  For now I’m betting on warm.  Rain moves in late Wednesday (probably at night).  A better chance for rain next Thursday Friday. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler