Jeremy Wheeler

Boo! Weekend Coastal Storm

October 31st, 2014 at 9:09 am by under Weather

Boo! That stands for 2 things in this blog.  Firstly, it might get a little scary out there this evening for trick-or-treating.  Not from the weather, but from the ghouls and goblins.  Boo can also be said because the weather is going to be nasty late Saturday into early Sunday.  Let’s start with the short-term forecast: Today we have a weak area of low pressure offshore.  This is not the system that will affect us this weekend, but it is throwing some extra moisture our way this morning.  So we have already increased our clouds.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The clouds will be with us through the day.  A few showers will fall over the Outer Banks and northeast North Carolina.  We could see a few sprinkles in Hampton Roads. Temps will be held down in the low 60s this afternoon. Winds will be out of the north at 10mph.  As we get into the evening we’ll see a few more sprinkles in the region.  The better chance for that will be along the coast.  Meanwhile an area of low pressure is developing off to our west over the Midwest states.  It will push east tonight and will arrive over our region tomorrow.  This will be the big weather player for the weekend.

Area Of Low Pressure

Area Of Low Pressure

We’ll start off Saturday with only an isolated shower or two, but the rain will pick up by Saturday afternoon/evening as the low pushes through.

Future Trak (Sat 9pm)

Future Trak (Sat 9pm)

The low will move away by Saturday night and will push offshore.  Winds will increase behind it.  We’ll see gusts up to 30mph by late Saturday afternoon.  They may not even increase until the evening, but winds will be gusting up to 45mph by Saturday night.  That will happen more along the shore than inland.  Winds will start out north-northeast, but they will be out of the north-northwest overnight.  By Sunday morning the rain will come to an end.  We’ll dry out as high pressure builds in from the west.  Winds will stay up through the morning, but will taper off by the late afternoon.  With  the winds so strong we’ll see some minor tidal flooding. This will come from the tide mostly as the rainfall is only expected to be about a half inch up to an inch.  So the tides will run about 1-2 feet above normal.  Again this is mostly for Sunday.

Tide Forecast

Tide Forecast

Stay tuned for updates to the tide forecast.  It is notorious for changing up until the last hour.  Here’s a link for the updates from the National Weather Service: Tide Forecast.

Conditions will improve by Sunday night.  However, we’ll see a new batch of problems.  The temperatures behind this system are very cold.  As the winds lighten up, the temps will be able to drop to near freezing.  So lows will be in the low/mid 30s by Monday morning.  There may even be a few upper 20s inland.  (I hope not).  So we’ll be looking at scattered to widespread frost.  Some areas could even see a freeze.  So it’s time to bring in the potted plants and the sensitive pets.  At least you’ll get an extra hour of sleep this weekend.  Yep!  Time to roll the clocks back an hour Saturday night.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Colder And Colder

October 30th, 2014 at 9:07 am by under Weather

Yesterday was the last of the warm air for a while.  Highs were in the upper 70s to near 80.  Now things will just keep getting colder and colder.  A cold front moved through last night and brought some scattered showers to the region.

Rain Showers Last Night

Rain Showers Last Night

The Showers pushed out by 7am.  We picked up about a quarter to a half an inch. Though most were closer to a quarter of an inch.  Now today we’ll see cooler/drier conditions.  High pressure is building in from the west as the front moves offshore.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Winds will be out of the north at about 5-15mph.  Highs this afternoon will be in the mid 60s, but most of the day will be in 50s.  Tomorrow the next big player in the weather game will set up to our west.  A large area of low pressure (at the surface and aloft) will move out of the Midwest and move east.  The force behind it is an unseasonably cold arimass that will dump out of Canada and pour to the south.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Some moisture will try to return to the region ahead of the cold front (see above map).  This may bring a few spotty showers to the Outer Banks.  Otherwise we’ll just see lots of clouds.  Highs will be in the low 60s tomorrow with winds still out of the north.  The weather looks ok for trick-or-treaters tomorrow.  Temps will be in the 50s.  So it will be cool.  We are looking at a lot of clouds in the region in the evening.

The rain will move in on Saturday.  It may come in more towards the afternoon, but we’ll see.  The broad surface low will move through the entire region through the day with a sharper low developing just to our northeast by Saturday night.  This is a newer feature in the models.  Before it looked like a broad low for us with the sharper low up off the New England coast.

Future Trak (Saturday)

Future Trak (Saturday)

We’ll see rain showers, but a rain/sleet/snow mix will fall over the Appalachians.  Hard to say if they’ll see accumulations as the surface will still be pretty warm.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a couple of melting ice pellets mix in with our rain here.  It will be very cold in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Winds will be picking up through the day, but they won’t really get strong until Saturday evening as the low starts to push offshore.  Then Saturday night and Sunday the winds may be gusting up to 45mph.  It looks like there may be some minor tidal flooding on Sunday.  Luckily the moon is in the half-moon phase.  That doesn’t promote tidal flooding in-itself.  We’ll have more details on the tide over the next couple of days.

We’ll be dry and windy on Sunday with highs in the low 50s.  Lows will be in the 30s.  By Sunday night the low will be long gone and winds will settle.  High pressure will build in.  The problem is that the temperatures will crash.  We’ll see lows in the low/mid 30s.  We could see some widespread frost in the region.  Time to bring in the sensitive plants.  We’ll warm up nicely into the middle of next week.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Big Cool Down And Wallops Weather

October 29th, 2014 at 8:33 am by under Weather

I’ll start with the weather last night during the rocket explosion at Wallops Island.  It was a vivid but sad incident to watch.  I was out trying to watch it from my house.  I had my DVR back a few minutes.  When I didn’t see anything outside and I went into my house and fast-forwarded to real-time on the news.  What a surprise.  As you probably know, the rocket exploded shortly after takeoff.  The weather at the time was mostly clear with temps in the 60s.  Winds were out of the southwest at about 10-12mph.   After the rocket exploded there was a large smoke plume.  This was actually picked up on our radar.

Smoke Plume

Smoke Plume

They’ll see partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies today with highs in the 70s for the investigation.  However, Rain showers will move in by tonight.  More on that in a moment.

This morning we started out great.  It was a beautiful morning when the sun came up.  It shined through a deck of clouds shortly after rising.

Beautiful Morning

Beautiful Morning

Yes…I did capture a helicopter passing nearby along with the clouds.  The clouds weren’t too thick, but they were widespread.  Today we’ll go between partly and mostly cloudy skies.  Despite the clouds we will still be very warm. Southwest winds and partial clearing will let the temps rise into the upper 70s to near 80.  No rain is expected during the day except for a few stray showers over the northwest parts of the viewing area.

Cold Front To The West

Cold Front To The West

The models show most of the rain coming in between 8pm and 1am.  Here is what Future Trak shows for 11pm.

Future Trak (11pm)

Future Trak (11pm)

There may even be a few thunderstorms.  We are looking at about a quarter to a half an inch of rain.  A few showers may linger behind the front tomorrow morning.  Otherwise Thursday will be dry and much cooler. Highs will be in the low 60s.  Winds will be northerly at 10-15mph.  The cool air will linger into Friday.  Highs will be in the low 60s again.  We’ll see mostly cloudy skies for Friday evening.  Temps will be in the 50s during most trick-or-treat hours.

On Saturday the models still show a large area of low pressure forming off the New England coast.  This will shove down some very cold air into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states.  In fact there may be some snow over the Appalachian Mountains.  I am not even ruling out a couple of ice pellets trying to mix in with our local rain showers locally.  This would happen if the rain continues into Saturday night.  There will be a very cold upper level low sitting over us at that time.  Low temps Saturday night will drop to the upper 30s.  It is going to feel like early Winter out there.  On Sunday we’ll still be chilly with highs in the low 50s, but at least it will be dry.  We’ll warm up into next week.

In the tropics there is still a weak disturbance near the Lesser Antilles.  It was a little more impressive on satellite this morning.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

It has a weak-medium chance for developing over the next few days.  It is slowly moving northwest.  So we will monitor it closely.  I doubt it would be able to get to close to the U.S. mainland though.  This large cold fronts coming in will be strong enough to knock anything out to sea.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Hanna Who? Plus…Bouncing Temps!

October 28th, 2014 at 8:37 am by under Weather

As per the title of this blog…tropical storm Hanna is already gone.  It quickly formed yesterday, but she left before we even got to know her.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

It did bring some heavy rain to Nicaragua and Honduras, but I haven’t seen any reports of flooding yet.  I’m sure we’ll get some updates later today.  There is also a weak disturbance over towards the Lesser Antilles, but It probably won’t do much of anything.  The rest of the tropics are quiet.

Closer to home the weather is lovely.  It’s actually going to be pretty warm today.  The heat has really been building to our west.  We’ll have a lot of sunshine with southwest winds at 10-15mph this afternoon.  So highs will rise to the low 80s.  The average high is 67.  The record in Norfolk for today is 86 (1984).  High pressure is in control.

Tomorrow a cold front will move into the region, but we’ll still see some warmth during the day.

Tomorrow's Forecast Map

Tomorrow’s Forecast Map

Highs will be in the mid-upper 70s with a few 80s south.  Most of the day will not see rain, but a line of scattered showers will move in by the evening.  We aren’t looking at too much rain (a couple tenths of an inch), but the models are a little wetter today.  Here is what Future Trak shows at 8pm Wednesday:

Future Trak

Future Trak 8pm Wed.

The showers will push through by midnight.  Then we’ll dry out into Thursday morning.  Highs will be in the low 60s with partly cloudy skies.  We’ll see highs in the low 60s again on Friday.  There will be a lot of clouds in the region with a few showers possible over the southern Outer Banks.  It should be good for trick-or-treat time.  Lots of clouds with temps in the 50s.  It’s possible some drizzle could sneak into the forecast.  So stay tuned.  Saturday will be kind of nasty out.  A large area of low pressure will form off the New England coast with a strong area of high pressure over the Midwest.  This will shove lots of unseasonably cold air into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states.  We’ll see highs in the 50s on Saturday and Sunday with lows mostly in the 30s.  It will also be windy.  Especially on Saturday.  It will be so cold that snow will be possible in the Appalachians.  Yep that’s right.  Snow in the higher elevations of western Virginia will be possible this upcoming weekend.  The air might moderate a bit as we get closer to that time.  So we’ll see.  Some snow will likely fall in the Great Lakes region.

Finally, the rocket launch at Wallops Island was postponed yesterday.  Apparently a boat was in the safe zone again.  So now the launch has been rescheduled for 6:22pm today.  Check here for updates: Wallop Island Flight Facility.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Up And Down (Temps, Rockets, and Hanna)

October 27th, 2014 at 12:33 pm by under Weather

This morning was the beginning of the ride.  It was the bottom of the roller coaster when you just start out and get ready to head up the slow going hill.  A cold front moved through over the weekend.  Skies cleared out last night and winds dropped to nothing.  So our overnight lows were in the 30s and 40s.

Temps This Morning

Temps This Morning

Temps are warming up nicely though. We’ll see highs in the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon.  At this time of this writing Suffolk had already managed to hit 67 degrees, and it was still warming.  Winds will be out of the northeast at about 10mph.  By tomorrow the winds will flip around out of the south.  So we’ll warm up quite a bit.  Lows will be in the low 50s.  Highs will be near 80.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Temps will cool down just a bit on Wednesday.  The front won’t arrive until late, but there will be more clouds.  So highs will be in the mid-upper 70s.  If the front slows down, then we could be back close to 80.  However, we’ll definitely cool down on Thursday.  Highs will be in the 60s.  Then we’ll have a strong area of low pressure form off the New England coast on Friday.  That will shove windy/colder conditions our way.  So highs will probably be in the 50s next weekend.  Lows will be in the 30s.  It will be pretty cold.

This evening there will be a rocket launch from Wallops Island.  If all goes well then they will send up a rocket at 6:45pm.  I’ve only seen them on tower cam 10, but I’ve heard that they are cool to see live.  Check here for updates: Wallops Island (NASA)

Speaking of updates…Tropical storm Hanna has formed in the tropics.  It formed this morning off the coast of Nicaragua.  However, it is going to be a short-lived storm.  It is just off the coast of Nicaragua and it is moving west towards land.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

The sustained winds were only 40mph which makes it a minimal tropical storm.  As it moves over land it should weaken further.  The problem is that flooding rains are expected in the region.  It will possibly dump up to 15 inches over either Nicaragua or Honduras.  Dangerous flooding and mudslides will be the main threats from the storm over the next 24 hours.

Hanna Forecast

Hanna Forecast

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Nice Weekend For Fall Colors

October 24th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

We have some really nice weather on the way for the region.  The area of low pressure is long-gone.  High pressure is trying to build in from the west.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Normally when high pressure works into the region, then you clear out the clouds and get sunshine.  However, there’s a little bit of thin moisture working in with it.  So expect some high/thin cirrus clouds today.  Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  The breeze will be out of the northwest at about 10-15mph with a few higher gusts near the shore.  At least it won’t be as windy as the last couple of days.  High pressure will park itself here over the weekend.  So great weather will ensue.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  Lows will be in the 50s.

With the cool temperatures lately, the leaves are starting to change color in the region, but they are not at full peak.  Here was one photo from meteorologist Jeff Edmondson.  He took it while he was in Chesapeake:

Fall Colors

Fall Colors

If you want to catch some areas that are nearing their peak, then you have to head north or west.  Here is the map with the latest colors:

Fall Colors

Fall Colors

The Appalachians are at peak right now.  So head on out to Roanoke, Washington D.C. or Asheville, NC. We’ll go to our peak over the next couple of weeks. It is past peak in West Virginia.

Have a great weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Bye Bye Low & Partial Solar Eclipse

October 23rd, 2014 at 8:32 am by under Weather

The area of low pressure that formed over us yesterday has pushed off to the northeast since last night.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

It was rainy, windy, and chilly yesterday.  Highs were only in the 50s.  Winds gusted to over 25mph near the shore.  We didn’t have much rain in most cities.  Most weather watchers only had a couple tens of an inch.  However, there were a couple of places that had more.  For instance my weather watcher Doris on the Eastern Shore had a little over an inch.  There was a small but heavy shower that sat over that area yesterday morning.

Today the low will keep pushing northeast, and the rain will move along with it.  While we will be dry, we are still holding on to the clouds this morning.  The clouds will gradually decrease through the day.  If we get the clearing as expected, then high temps will get into the mid 60s.  Winds will be northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph.  Especially near the shore.

From tonight into the next few days we’ll have some nice weather .  High pressure will build into the region, and will stay planted through the weekend.  High temps will mostly be in the low 70s.

Tropical Depression number 9 never made it to tropical storm status.  In fact it has pretty much fallen apart.

Tropical Satellite/Radar

Tropical Satellite/Radar

The post-tropical depression is moving east across the Yucatan Peninsula.  It’s still possible that it may reform on the other side of the landmass, but that doesn’t look as likely as it did yesterday.

Finally, there will be a partial solar eclipse this afternoon/evening.  It starts at 3:38pm.  It will be visible here on the east coast, but it won’t be as impressive as it will be on the west coast.

Partial Solar Eclipse

Partial Solar Eclipse

Remember!  Don’t look directly at the sun.  The intensity of the UV rays can burn your retinas.  So you can either use protective goggles like welder’s goggles, or you can use a camera.  You may be able to use your cell phone as it doesn’t project the intensity, but it does show the light.  You may also be able to project the light with a telescope, but be careful not to look through the lens. Also be careful not to focus the beam too intensely.  It could start a fire.  I’m optimistic that we’ll clear out by then.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Hampton Roads Low

October 22nd, 2014 at 8:49 am by under Weather

As I typed yesterday’s blog the models had already started to transform.  Yesterday morning it looked like the area of low pressure was going to pass just north of us, but instead it decided to form right over our region.  Luckily it isn’t a strong low. It is fairly broad.  But it did create a few thunderstorms last night.  In fact there was one report of some small hail in Poquoson early this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

It was actually cool this morning.  So for that to happen there must have been a much colder airmass aloft to create that instability.  The low is steadily moving east.  It will slowly push offshore through the early afternoon.  The scattered rain showers will continue on the backside of the low.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

The winds, however, haven’t been too bad so far.  They are forecast to increase out of the northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph.  Especially near the shore.
Temperatures will be held down to the low 60s today due to the clouds, wind, and rain.  So be prepared for a chilly/windy day.  Scattered showers will continue into the evening.  The low will push farther northeast.  The wind will stay up, but the rain will taper off overnight.  Tomorrow the low will become a nor’easter-type storm for New York state up to Maine.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Clouds will hang around for a while in Hampton Roads.  Then we’ll clear out later in the day.  The wind will be north-northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph.  So high temperatures will still be in the low/mid 60s.  Since the wind will be out of the northwest I am not expecting tidal flooding.  We aren’t looking at a lot of train either.  I forecast a quarter inch up to an inch.  Most should see the lesser amounts.

By Friday we’ll be forgetting this nasty weather as high pressure builds into the region.  We’ll have fair skies and highs in the upper 60s.  Maybe a few 70s by Sunday.

Meanwhile tropical depression number 9 has formed in the Bay of Campeche.  It is likely to become tropical storm Hanna by later this morning or by the afternoon.  It is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula mainly as a depression, but not initially.

Tropical Depression 9

Tropical Depression 9

The depression is not only forecast to survive its land-crossing.  It is also forecast to drift east as a depression for a couple of days.  It may interact with a cold front to the north, but if it stays south enough of the front, then it could gain strength again.  The long-term GFS model had it going into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days. Stay tuned to see what this thing is going to do.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


A Nearby Low

October 21st, 2014 at 9:06 am by under Weather

This upcoming weather system is going to have more of an impact on the northeast states compared to our region, but it will have an impact nonetheless.  An area low pressure was swinging through the Ohio river valley and was moving east/southeast.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Out ahead of it we had some moisture this morning which caused a few sprinkles here and there.  However, there is clearing off to our west that will push in through the late morning.  Meanwhile the low will continue to move east and will create some scattered showers just to our northwest.

Today's Forecast Map

Today’s Forecast Map

The showers will mostly stay to our west through the day.  However a few showers will try to sneak in late in the afternoon into the evening.  Our Future Trak model shows a few showers just west of us by 5pm.  I think a few could come in by then.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

The cold front (above map) will work through the area this evening.  The chance for rain will pick up.  We’ll keep scattered showers overnight into tomorrow even though the front will have cleared the region.  The reason is that the area of low pressure will strengthen off to our northeast.  Plus, some upper level energy will swing through our area behind it.  So we aren’t looking at thunderstorms, but scattered showers will continue.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Both of these lows (upper and lower level) will push out by Thursday.  Then we’ll be dry going into the weekend.  (Which looks great by the way!).  All in all we are looking at a couple tenths of an inch in the region between today and tomorrow night, but they are expecting several inches in the northeast states.

Temps will rise to the low 70s today.  Then we’ll be in the mid 60s tomorrow and Thursday.  We’ll steadily rise into the upper 60s to low 70s over the weekend.   Winds will be southwest today at 8-12mph.  Tomorrow they will increase to 10-20mph with gusts to 25mph. They will run from the northwest through tomorrow evening. We’ll stay breezy on Thursday.

In the tropics there is one area that has a medium chance for development over the next couple of days.  Near the Bay of Campeche there is a cluster of thunderstorms that is getting better organized.

Bay Of Campeche

Bay Of Campeche

Even if it does become tropical, it will eventually interact with the same cold front that will impact our region.  Therefore it will probably become non-tropical again down the road.  We’ll continue to monitor.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Chill Is In The Air

October 20th, 2014 at 8:47 am by under Weather

Well…today Don Roberts actually had a right to complain about the cold temps.  I’ve gave him a hard time when he said he was running the heat in his car while the morning temps were in the upper 50s to near 60 last week.  Now this morning we started with lows in the 30s and 40s.  So even I ran the heat in my car a bit.

Temps This Morning

Temps This Morning

The average lows are in the 50s this time of year, but 40s are still normal.  30s are a bit early though.  We even had a couple of reports of patchy frost.  We had clear skies and light winds.  So that promoted a lot of cooling.  Today we’ll see a lot of sunshine with high pressure pushing just offshore.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The cloud cover will be the high-thin cirrus type clouds.  So plenty of sunshine will be able to get through.  With the high pushing offshore we’ll see light southerly winds this afternoon.  That will warm us up to the upper 60s to low 70s.  Tomorrow some moisture will work into the area and will try to create a few spotty showers.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  However, another cold front will move through the region on Wednesday.  This will knock the highs back down to the low/mid 60s.  Lows will be in the 40s again as well.  We’ll see a few showers on Wednesday near and behind the front.  Then we’ll have lots of sunshine from Thursday into the weekend.  Temps will rise to the 70s during the weekend as well. Should be beautiful.

Gonzalo is now a post-tropical system.  It is basically like a large nor’easter that is headed for the U.K.  They are preparing for the storm.

Post-Tropical Gonzalo

Post-Tropical Gonzalo

There is also a weak disturbance over towards Africa that may become a subtropical system.  You can see it on the lower right hand side of the above image.  Plus there is a weak disturbance over towards central America that may become a tropical system in the next few days.  We’ll continue to monitor these areas

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler