Jeremy Wheeler

Nice Weekend For Fall Colors

October 24th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

We have some really nice weather on the way for the region.  The area of low pressure is long-gone.  High pressure is trying to build in from the west.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Normally when high pressure works into the region, then you clear out the clouds and get sunshine.  However, there’s a little bit of thin moisture working in with it.  So expect some high/thin cirrus clouds today.  Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  The breeze will be out of the northwest at about 10-15mph with a few higher gusts near the shore.  At least it won’t be as windy as the last couple of days.  High pressure will park itself here over the weekend.  So great weather will ensue.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  Lows will be in the 50s.

With the cool temperatures lately, the leaves are starting to change color in the region, but they are not at full peak.  Here was one photo from meteorologist Jeff Edmondson.  He took it while he was in Chesapeake:

Fall Colors

Fall Colors

If you want to catch some areas that are nearing their peak, then you have to head north or west.  Here is the map with the latest colors:

Fall Colors

Fall Colors

The Appalachians are at peak right now.  So head on out to Roanoke, Washington D.C. or Asheville, NC. We’ll go to our peak over the next couple of weeks. It is past peak in West Virginia.

Have a great weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Bye Bye Low & Partial Solar Eclipse

October 23rd, 2014 at 8:32 am by under Weather

The area of low pressure that formed over us yesterday has pushed off to the northeast since last night.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

It was rainy, windy, and chilly yesterday.  Highs were only in the 50s.  Winds gusted to over 25mph near the shore.  We didn’t have much rain in most cities.  Most weather watchers only had a couple tens of an inch.  However, there were a couple of places that had more.  For instance my weather watcher Doris on the Eastern Shore had a little over an inch.  There was a small but heavy shower that sat over that area yesterday morning.

Today the low will keep pushing northeast, and the rain will move along with it.  While we will be dry, we are still holding on to the clouds this morning.  The clouds will gradually decrease through the day.  If we get the clearing as expected, then high temps will get into the mid 60s.  Winds will be northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph.  Especially near the shore.

From tonight into the next few days we’ll have some nice weather .  High pressure will build into the region, and will stay planted through the weekend.  High temps will mostly be in the low 70s.

Tropical Depression number 9 never made it to tropical storm status.  In fact it has pretty much fallen apart.

Tropical Satellite/Radar

Tropical Satellite/Radar

The post-tropical depression is moving east across the Yucatan Peninsula.  It’s still possible that it may reform on the other side of the landmass, but that doesn’t look as likely as it did yesterday.

Finally, there will be a partial solar eclipse this afternoon/evening.  It starts at 3:38pm.  It will be visible here on the east coast, but it won’t be as impressive as it will be on the west coast.

Partial Solar Eclipse

Partial Solar Eclipse

Remember!  Don’t look directly at the sun.  The intensity of the UV rays can burn your retinas.  So you can either use protective goggles like welder’s goggles, or you can use a camera.  You may be able to use your cell phone as it doesn’t project the intensity, but it does show the light.  You may also be able to project the light with a telescope, but be careful not to look through the lens. Also be careful not to focus the beam too intensely.  It could start a fire.  I’m optimistic that we’ll clear out by then.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Hampton Roads Low

October 22nd, 2014 at 8:49 am by under Weather

As I typed yesterday’s blog the models had already started to transform.  Yesterday morning it looked like the area of low pressure was going to pass just north of us, but instead it decided to form right over our region.  Luckily it isn’t a strong low. It is fairly broad.  But it did create a few thunderstorms last night.  In fact there was one report of some small hail in Poquoson early this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

It was actually cool this morning.  So for that to happen there must have been a much colder airmass aloft to create that instability.  The low is steadily moving east.  It will slowly push offshore through the early afternoon.  The scattered rain showers will continue on the backside of the low.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

The winds, however, haven’t been too bad so far.  They are forecast to increase out of the northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph.  Especially near the shore.
Temperatures will be held down to the low 60s today due to the clouds, wind, and rain.  So be prepared for a chilly/windy day.  Scattered showers will continue into the evening.  The low will push farther northeast.  The wind will stay up, but the rain will taper off overnight.  Tomorrow the low will become a nor’easter-type storm for New York state up to Maine.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Clouds will hang around for a while in Hampton Roads.  Then we’ll clear out later in the day.  The wind will be north-northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph.  So high temperatures will still be in the low/mid 60s.  Since the wind will be out of the northwest I am not expecting tidal flooding.  We aren’t looking at a lot of train either.  I forecast a quarter inch up to an inch.  Most should see the lesser amounts.

By Friday we’ll be forgetting this nasty weather as high pressure builds into the region.  We’ll have fair skies and highs in the upper 60s.  Maybe a few 70s by Sunday.

Meanwhile tropical depression number 9 has formed in the Bay of Campeche.  It is likely to become tropical storm Hanna by later this morning or by the afternoon.  It is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula mainly as a depression, but not initially.

Tropical Depression 9

Tropical Depression 9

The depression is not only forecast to survive its land-crossing.  It is also forecast to drift east as a depression for a couple of days.  It may interact with a cold front to the north, but if it stays south enough of the front, then it could gain strength again.  The long-term GFS model had it going into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days. Stay tuned to see what this thing is going to do.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


A Nearby Low

October 21st, 2014 at 9:06 am by under Weather

This upcoming weather system is going to have more of an impact on the northeast states compared to our region, but it will have an impact nonetheless.  An area low pressure was swinging through the Ohio river valley and was moving east/southeast.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Out ahead of it we had some moisture this morning which caused a few sprinkles here and there.  However, there is clearing off to our west that will push in through the late morning.  Meanwhile the low will continue to move east and will create some scattered showers just to our northwest.

Today's Forecast Map

Today’s Forecast Map

The showers will mostly stay to our west through the day.  However a few showers will try to sneak in late in the afternoon into the evening.  Our Future Trak model shows a few showers just west of us by 5pm.  I think a few could come in by then.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

The cold front (above map) will work through the area this evening.  The chance for rain will pick up.  We’ll keep scattered showers overnight into tomorrow even though the front will have cleared the region.  The reason is that the area of low pressure will strengthen off to our northeast.  Plus, some upper level energy will swing through our area behind it.  So we aren’t looking at thunderstorms, but scattered showers will continue.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Both of these lows (upper and lower level) will push out by Thursday.  Then we’ll be dry going into the weekend.  (Which looks great by the way!).  All in all we are looking at a couple tenths of an inch in the region between today and tomorrow night, but they are expecting several inches in the northeast states.

Temps will rise to the low 70s today.  Then we’ll be in the mid 60s tomorrow and Thursday.  We’ll steadily rise into the upper 60s to low 70s over the weekend.   Winds will be southwest today at 8-12mph.  Tomorrow they will increase to 10-20mph with gusts to 25mph. They will run from the northwest through tomorrow evening. We’ll stay breezy on Thursday.

In the tropics there is one area that has a medium chance for development over the next couple of days.  Near the Bay of Campeche there is a cluster of thunderstorms that is getting better organized.

Bay Of Campeche

Bay Of Campeche

Even if it does become tropical, it will eventually interact with the same cold front that will impact our region.  Therefore it will probably become non-tropical again down the road.  We’ll continue to monitor.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Chill Is In The Air

October 20th, 2014 at 8:47 am by under Weather

Well…today Don Roberts actually had a right to complain about the cold temps.  I’ve gave him a hard time when he said he was running the heat in his car while the morning temps were in the upper 50s to near 60 last week.  Now this morning we started with lows in the 30s and 40s.  So even I ran the heat in my car a bit.

Temps This Morning

Temps This Morning

The average lows are in the 50s this time of year, but 40s are still normal.  30s are a bit early though.  We even had a couple of reports of patchy frost.  We had clear skies and light winds.  So that promoted a lot of cooling.  Today we’ll see a lot of sunshine with high pressure pushing just offshore.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The cloud cover will be the high-thin cirrus type clouds.  So plenty of sunshine will be able to get through.  With the high pushing offshore we’ll see light southerly winds this afternoon.  That will warm us up to the upper 60s to low 70s.  Tomorrow some moisture will work into the area and will try to create a few spotty showers.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  However, another cold front will move through the region on Wednesday.  This will knock the highs back down to the low/mid 60s.  Lows will be in the 40s again as well.  We’ll see a few showers on Wednesday near and behind the front.  Then we’ll have lots of sunshine from Thursday into the weekend.  Temps will rise to the 70s during the weekend as well. Should be beautiful.

Gonzalo is now a post-tropical system.  It is basically like a large nor’easter that is headed for the U.K.  They are preparing for the storm.

Post-Tropical Gonzalo

Post-Tropical Gonzalo

There is also a weak disturbance over towards Africa that may become a subtropical system.  You can see it on the lower right hand side of the above image.  Plus there is a weak disturbance over towards central America that may become a tropical system in the next few days.  We’ll continue to monitor these areas

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Weekend Cool-Down And Gonzalo

October 17th, 2014 at 8:46 am by under Weather

Locally we have some great weather on the way.  We started today with this:

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

The sunshine was aplenty and the temperatures were in the 50s.  We’ll see lots of sun today as high pressure has sunk into the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The upper level low that moved over us yesterday has moved out to sea.  Highs will be in the mid 70s.  Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.  Not too shabby.  Tonight will be quiet with lows in the 50s.  We’ll start off tomorrow with clear skies and cool temps.  By the afternoon things will change a bit.  A cold front will move through the region along with a weak mid level disturbance.  Normally this would cause some showers, but at this time it looks too dry.  I will say that there may be a couple of sprinkles, but for now the models only really show an increase in clouds.  Highs will still manage to get into the 70s.  By Sunday the front will have cleared the region.  We’ll have clearing skies and dry weather behind it.  So Sunday will see lots of sunshine and highs in the mid 60s.  The low temperatures won’t be too cool yet.  However, by Monday morning we’ll see temps drop to the 40s area-wide.  It’s possible that we could even see a few 30s inland between Monday and Tuesday morning.  It’s probably too early for frost, but stay tuned for updates.

Speaking of updates…Hurricane Gonzalo remains a powerful hurricane.  The eye of the hurricane has become more ragged, but the latest winds are still high.

Gonzalo On Satellite

Gonzalo On Satellite

The filling in of the eye may be a sign of longer term weakening, but that remains to be seen.  This morning the hurricane had winds of 130mph.  This is likely to go down as the forecast calls for, but they probably won’t drop too much before landfall.  It is still forecast to hit Bermuda as a category 3 hurricane later today.

Gonzalo Forecast

Gonzalo Forecast

This means that the winds will be about 120mph sustained with gusts up to 150mph.  These are similar conditions to when hurricane Fabian hit the island back in 2003.  That hurricane caused extensive damage to the Bermuda coast and to much of the island.  The surge was about 11ft then.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the surge got above 12 feet from Gonzalo.   Either way, the waves are forecast to reach 35-40ft.

Wave Height From Gonzalo

Wave Height From Gonzalo

Those wave heights are on top of the surge.  Luckily much of the island is elevated and there are some coral reefs surrounding it as well.  Notice that even here locally we’ll see an increase in the waves.  Expect about 4-5 ft waves with some 5-7 ft waves near Hatteras.  This will stay up a bit tomorrow, but will drop on Sunday.  Should be good surf with our winds out of the west.  The hurricane will move over the north Atlantic waters and will gradually weaken this weekend.  It doesn’t look like it will impact Newfoundland much anymore.  It is forecast to stay a little farther out to sea.  They will get some high waves though.  Hopefully, Bermuda will be ok.  As I mentioned in a previous blog, they have had a lot of storms over the last few years.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Coolness, Gonzalo, & Snowy Winter?

October 16th, 2014 at 9:03 am by under Weather

We did have the rain yesterday, but luckily we didn’t have any severe weather in the region.  A pocket of drier air in the mid levels and lots of clouds helped to limit the bad weather in the region.  The rain totals weren’t too bad.  We had about 3/4″ up to 1″ from the Peninsula northward with 0.25″ to about 0.5″  for the Southside, Eastern Shore, and northeast North Carolina.

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

Another reason that we probably didn’t see strong storms was that the cold front moved way out ahead of the upper level low.  Today that will play a part in our forecast.  For instance…this morning we had a lot of sunshine and cooler temperatures behind the front.  The rain had pushed well offshore.  Other than some patchy light fog it was a nice morning.  However, the upper level low still hasn’t passed through yet.  It is off to our west.

Sattelite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

So as the upper level pocket of energy moves into Hampton Roads this afternoon we’ll see the clouds increase, and a couple of sprinkles will form.  Highs will be in the low/mid 70s.  By tomorrow this system will push out to sea.  So we’ll have lots of sunshine.  However, the winds will be more northerly.  So we’ll hold onto the highs in the low 70s.  Another weak upper level low will move through on Saturday, but it only looks to increase the clouds for now.  Then more sunshine on Sunday.  Highs will be in the 70s on Saturday, but cooler air will surge into the region on Sunday.  So highs will be in the 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

Speaking of cooler weather…. The Winter forecast is still up in the air a bit.  (No pun intended) However, there are some signs that it really could be as snowy and wintry as some sources are suggesting.  One big indicator for the Winter forecast is the amount of snowpack over Siberia.  Yep, the geographic area over Asia.  There is more and more research on how snowpack in Siberia is linked to U.S. snowfall through teleconnections.    Here is a new article with an update on the current snowpack, and the possible effects it could have on global weather.  Siberia Snowpack.   This is not the only thing to watch, but signs are pointing to a colder snowier Winter at this point.  We’ll see what happens in October.

Last, but not least… Hurricane Gonzalo is still a major hurricane.  It went up to category 4 (winds of  130-156mph) status yesterday.  Then it went back down last night to a cat 3.  This morning the 5 am update came in very early.  At that time the National Hurricane Center upgraded the storm to a category 4 again. What happened was that the eye went under an eyewall replacement cycle.   It even disappeared on satellite, but then came back this morning.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

The storm was over 500 miles SSW of Bermuda and was moving north.  Sustained winds were at 140mph.  The hurricane is forecast to head straight towards Bermuda in the next 36 hours.  This is terrible news for the island.  In fact it is currently forecast to move over Bermuda as a major hurricane on Friday.   Damaging winds and possible flooding are forecast for the region along with high waves.  This could be the most destructive storm to hit there since hurricane Fabian in 2003.  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Strong Storms And Hurricane Gonzalo

October 15th, 2014 at 8:49 am by under Weather

No doubt that there’s been some rough weather to our west over the past couple of days.  A powerful system has brought numerous reports of severe weather to the Deep South and the Midwest.   As the system moved east it is lost some of its energy.  However, we could still see a few strong storms in our region today.

A cold front was the focus for a long line of showers and storms since the overnight hours.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The line was moving very slowly to the east.  Meanwhile we’ve had a few showers moving up from the south ahead of the line.  We will be ahead of the front during the day.  The low level winds will be very strong.  Surface winds will gust up to 30mph.  This will let the temperatures climb into the low 80s this afternoon.  Also, the moisture is continuing to pool into the region.  The line of storms will slowly edge east through the day.  We may see a brief break in the clouds and rain, but this will be short lived.  Here is what our Future Trak model shows for noon:

Future Trak (Noon)

Future Trak (Noon)

If we do get some sunshine, then it will add to our instability.  Then the storms will feed off of this between noon and 3pm.  Wind shear is fairly high today, but the instability should be somewhat limited.   The main threat from the storms will be strong gusty winds over 45mph.  Also, heavy rain will be a threat as well.  Hail should be very limited.  An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, but the chance is very low.  The showers and storms will still be going into the evening, but they should be a bit more scattered at that time.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

The showers and storms will taper off through the late evening.  The cold front will finally move through in the late evening hours between about 9pm and midnight.  All-in-all we are looking at about an inch of rain in the region.  A few locations will see over an inch and a half.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

By tomorrow we’ll see much quieter/cooler weather.  Highs will be in the low 70s.  We may see some sunshine in the morning, but we’ll have an increase in clouds during the afternoon.  The upper level low will push through the region at that time.  So we could even see a few sprinkles.  Shouldn’t be much.  Then we’ll finally dry out by Thursday night.  Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look great. We’ll see lots of sunshine and highs in the 60s and 70s.

Hurricane Gonzalo is churning over the central Atlantic waters.  It has sustained winds of 125mph.  This is a category 3 hurricane.  It was located about 650 miles south of Bermuda, and was moving northwest at 13mph.  The hurricane lost its eye for a bit this morning. Then it re-formed.  But it was much smaller than it was last night.

Gonzalo On Satellite

Gonzalo On Satellite

The storm is forecast to move more to the north today, and then north-northeast by tonight.  Gonzalo is encountering some wind shear and a little drier air.  Soon it will also move over cooler waters.  So it’s possible that it will weaken a bit as it heads towards Bermuda.  However, the latest forecast still has it as a major hurricane as it approaches the island tomorrow.

Gonzalo Forecast

Gonzalo Forecast

This could really disrupt things over Bermuda.  They not only just had hurricane Fay, but overall they have had a lot of storms over the last few years.  In fact Bermuda has seen more than twice as much tropical activity as the state of Florida over the last few years.

We’ll see some waves come in from Gonzalo.  We are looking at some 4 foot waves today with a few 5 footers possible.  Friday and Saturday could see some 5 foot waves with a few 6 footers.  Stay tuned for updates to all of this.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Front Forming…Is Fay Forming Too?

October 10th, 2014 at 8:27 am by under Weather

Locally we have some pretty good weather today.  However, there is a stationary front forming in the region, and it will have an impact on our weekend weather.  The front is developing this morning just to our north.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The boundary was really just a wind-shift line, but the cold and warm air on both sides are getting reinforced.  As high pressure slides to our southeast, we’ll develop southwesterly winds locally.  This will let the temperatures rise up to the upper 70s to low 80s.  Meanwhile it will only be in the upper 60s in Washington D.C.

Forecast High Temps

Forecast High Temps

Along the front there will be some spotty showers today.  These will try to move into the region this afternoon.  However, I’m only calling for a slight chance for that shower or a 20% chance.  That is for southeast Virginia, but I doubt we’ll see anything in North Carolina.  Otherwise we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds.

Tomorrow the front will slowly sink south as a cold front. Though it will be very slow moving.  This will create a chance for scattered showers in the region.  I put the chance at 20% tomorrow morning, and then 40% by the late afternoon.   It definitely won’t rain all day.  Here is what Future Trak shows for Saturday at 3pm:

Future Trak (3pm Sat.)

Future Trak (3pm Sat.)

The boundary will keep heading south late Saturday into early Sunday.  We’ll dry out on Sunday, but not completely as the front stalls out over North Carolina.  So we could see an isolated shower or two.  Otherwise Sunday is looking pretty good.  Highs will be in the low 70s on Saturday….upper 60s on Sunday.

We’ll be mild and dry Monday and Tuesday.  Then a large system will move through the region on Wednesday.  Rain is likely and there will probably be some thunderstorms.  The deep flow out of the south will let the moisture pool into the region.  So heavy rain will be possible.  Stay tuned for updates.

In the tropics there is an update.  By the time you read this, tropical storm Fay is likely to have formed.  Or at least it will shortly.  It is very impressive on the satellite, and has been all morning.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

Ok.  Maybe it will be subtropical storm Fay.  Either way, this area looks like it has its act together as it moves to the north/northwest. You can find the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center here: NHC forecast.  The forecast models keep it out to sea, but it may impact Bermuda.  It may also bring us some higher waves by the weekend.  So we’ll have to monitor.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Up And Down Temps, And Tidal Flooding Report

October 9th, 2014 at 8:34 am by under Weather

Yesterday we had a weak cool front move through the region.  It didn’t really cool us down much at first.  However, temps did fall last night as the skies were clear and the winds were light.  It was in the 40s inland with some milder 60s near the coast.  A northeast breeze coming off of the ocean and bay kept the temps up in Norfolk and Virginia Beach.  Later today high pressure will provide for a very nice day.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll see fair skies and highs in the low/mid 70s.  Tomorrow the clouds will increase, but winds will be out of the southeast. So we’ll warm up a bit.  We’ll see highs back in the upper 70s to low 80s.  Then a cold front will move into the region over the weekend and cool us down again.  The front is still expected to stall out over the region.  This will give us a chance for some scattered showers both days.  The models are still looking at only some light/scattered showers.  In fact they have been trending drier over the last 24 hours.  So I still believe there will be a lot of time in between the rain.  I may even drop the chance on Sunday to slight.  We’ll see.   If you have outdoor plans, then this is good news.  The models are actually picking up on a bigger storm system next Tuesday into Wednesday.  This is looking like it will cause lots of showers and storms in the region.  It will be a big trough that will slide out of the Midwest into the Southeast.   A lot of deep moisture looks to move into the region so stay tuned for updates.

In the tropics things are fairly quiet.  There is a weak disturbance north/northeast of the Leeward Islands that may develop over the next few days.

Weak Disturbance In The Tropics

Weak Disturbance In The Tropics

It is moving generally northwest.  It is expected to stay out to sea, and it could impact Bermuda.  Also it could bring us some waves down the road.  We’ve see a lot of tidal flooding this year.  Some of it has been indirectly from systems well offshore.  So we’ll monitor this system for that.

In that same realm.  A new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists is out, and it talks directly about how tides are rising along the East Coast.  Nuisance to minor tidal flooding has increased in frequency over the years.  I have personally witnessed this in my 10 years at WAVY.  It is getting to the point that we have nuisance tidal flooding even with the weakest disturbances.  I now have to factor in the tide when heavy rain is forecast.  This is from systems that are not even coastal in nature.   The article specifically talks about the Norfolk and Outer Banks areas on pages 34-36.  So this really hits home, and is a good read.  Here is the article: Increasing Tidal Flooding.

Let me know your thoughts about it in the comment section.  Thanks!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler