Jeremy Wheeler

Nice Today, Then Cooling. Tide & Wind Energy!

December 17th, 2014 at 8:04 am by under Weather

Last night we did have some thunderstorms along with the rain showers.  While they weren’t widespread, there were some impacts in the region including a plane struck by lightning.  Meteorologist Tiffany Savona did a nice blog with more info on yesterday’s storms/rain.  Here it is: Tiffany’s weather blog.

Today we started with some areas of fog.  As we go through the day we’ll see lots of nice weather.  Despite a cold front moving through yesterday, we’ll still be fairly mild today.  High pressure is building in from the southwest. So we’ll have lots of sunshine.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.  We were in the 60s yesterday, and it felt great.  Today we’ll top off in the mid-upper 50s.  So it’s only a slight cool down compared to yesterday.  However, colder air in the Ohio River Valley will continue to pour into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.  This will continue for a few days.  So we’ll see highs in the mid-upper 40s from Thursday through Sunday in Hampton Roads.  Also, over the weekend a weak area of low pressure is still forecast to move through the region and deliver some scattered showers.  The best chance for rain will be late Saturday into Saturday night.  Then a few scattered showers will linger into Sunday.  The European model actually keeps a decent amount of rain around on Sunday, but the GFS does not.  So we’ll see.  This will be tough for shoppers, but shouldn’t impact travel too badly.

In global news.  There’s been a decent about of talk recently about offshore wind farms as a possible source for energy.  This would be a good source of energy, but there are some that do not want it for various reasons including aesthetics. Here’s an article from Dominion about a current project: Offshore Wind Farm  There is also a new article out that talks about another form of renewable energy (Tides).  This was thought to be a winning form of renewable energy.  However, some upstart companies are not doing well, and the future of this form of energy may be in question. Here’s a great article on that subject from Businessweek. Hope Dims For Tide Energy.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Warm But Wet Weather

December 16th, 2014 at 8:04 am by under Weather

Yesterday wasn’t too bad for temperatures.  We managed to make it into the mid-upper 50s in the region, and there was a lot of sunshine to boot.  Today we’ll see even warmer temperatures, but we’ll also see a chance for rain.  A warm front is on the way from the west/southwest with a cold front right behind it.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

So we’ll warm up briefly today as the warm front lifts through. Scattered showers will move in towards the afternoon.  Some may even arrive inland by the midday hours, but the bulk of the rain will come during the afternoon to the early evening.  Here is what Future Trak shows at 3pm:

Future Trak (3pm Today)

Future Trak (3pm Today)

Temperatures will rise to near 60 degrees and some cities will see the low 60s depending on the cloud cover.  Winds will be southwesterly at 5-15mph.  The rain will already push out by 9pm.  So this is a short-lived and light rain event.  We are only expecting 0.1 – 0.2″ of rain.  The cold front will move through tonight.  Then we’ll see clearing skies behind it.  Tomorrow we’ll see lots of sunshine as high pressure builds back in.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

It will cool down tomorrow, but the colder air will still lie to our north.  So highs will be in the mid 50s tomorrow. It will actually be pretty nice outside.  Winds will be out of the west at 5-10mph.  The cold air will settle south after that.  So we’ll be in the upper 40s Thursday and Friday.   Skies will be partly cloudy.  Over the weekend a weak system will move through the area, but it will linger for a while.  At this time the models are showing a chance for rain showers for both days.  It looks like the best chance for rain will be late Saturday, but some scattered showers will linger on Sunday as the system meanders off the coast.  Meanders…That’s kind of an odd word.  Here is a little about its definition and origin: (Meanders).  Latin/Greek.  Who knew?

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Your Weekday Forecast

December 15th, 2014 at 8:34 am by under Weather

After years of doing this blog and coming up with fancy titles…I’ll admit.  Today I came up blank.  Hey…it happens.  Anyway, it was a nice weekend, but a little cool at times. Highs were in the 40s and 50s with sunshine.  Today some of our inland locations will get a chance to warm up, but we won’t see the wide/dramatic warming for the area until tomorrow.  Here’s the setup.  We have a large area of high pressure in the region.  This is going to give us our sunshine, but it will also give us a north-northeast wind at about 5-10mph.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We’ll see highs close to 50 along the shore with mid-upper 50s in our inland locations.  Tomorrow the high will shift east allowing for southerly winds to develop.  Highs will rise to the upper 50s to near 60 in the region.  So we’ll warm things up, but we’ll also see some rain move in.  Scattered showers are expected for Tuesday afternoon.  It shouldn’t be too much rain.  We’ll see about a quarter of an inch or so.  The highest chance for rain will be from the mid afternoon through the early evening.

Future Trak (3pm Tue)

Future Trak (3pm Tue)

A cold front will move in later tomorrow, but we won’t cool down right away.  Highs will be in the mid 50s on Wednesday with partly cloudy skies.  Then high temps will return to the upper 40s Thursday into Friday.  A bigger area of rain looks to move in again on Saturday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Systems Start To Wind Down

December 12th, 2014 at 7:36 am by under Weather

The weather has been rough in the western and northeast states over the past 48 hours.  The rain has caused a lot of flooding and damage in the west. West Coast Storm.

West Coast Flooding

West Coast Flooding

The storm in the northeast has dumped a couple of feet of snow in some cities.  The heavy/wet snow has led to numerous power outages in the region.  East Coast Storm.  These storms were precipitated (pun intended) from tow large troughs in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

2 Troughs/ 2 Storms

2 Troughs/ 2 Storms

The troughs in the atmosphere are basically dips in the jetstream.  They promote rising air, and ultimately areas of low pressure form at the surface.  Both systems are weakening today, and they will both move east over the next couple of days.

Sun/Mon Forecast

Sun/Mon Forecast

Meanwhile we are enjoying high pressure and sunshine in our region.  In fact…we are looking at high pressure and nice weather for the next 7 days.  There may be a stray shower next Tuesday, but otherwise we will be dry.  High temperatures today will be near 50, but we’ll warm up a bit Sunday into Monday. Highs will be in the mid 50s on Sunday with 60s on Monday.  It will be a little cooler then by the middle of next week.

Someone on my facebook page asked about snow cover in the U.S.  Here is the latest snow cover from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOAA):

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201412/nsm_depth_2014121205_National.jpg

Snow cover across the United States (NOAA)

There’s a good amount in the northeast states and the U.P. of Michigan.  No snow in our forecast though.  Still too early to talk about the Christmas forecast, but stay tuned.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


2 Coasts…2 Storms

December 11th, 2014 at 8:04 am by under Weather

It’s been pretty rough on the west coast.  Sure they’ve needed rain, but now they have flooding and hurricane force winds over the region.  A large storm system is moving into northern California and Oregon this morning.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Seems like a case of careful of what you ask for.  Schools are closed. There are flood warnings.  Some winds will gust to 90mph in the higher elevations.  Here’s an article with more info: West Coast Storm.

Meanwhile a nor’easter is bringing heavy snow to parts of the northeast.

Nor'easter In The Northeast

Nor’easter In The Northeast

That system is bringing more heavy snow to Buffalo, NY.  However, they aren’t expecting the several feet of snow that they saw a couple of weeks ago.  Around here we have a nice area of high pressure which is delivering  sunshine.  However, we started very cold this morning. Lows were in the 20s and 30s.  Even with a lot of sunshine it will be tough to warm up.  The December sun is not that high in the sky.  So unless you really pull up the warm air from the south, then warming is hard to do.  Over the next couple of days the low is going to weaken and move out.  High pressure will build in.  This will let the temperatures slowly build too.  High temps will be near 50 tomorrow and Saturday.  We’ll be in the mid-upper 50s on Sunday.  We may be able to sneak in a few 60s by either Sunday or Monday.  At least into part of the region.  The weather looks dry through next Tuesday.  Maybe even longer.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Improving Conditions…Finally!

December 10th, 2014 at 8:14 am by under Weather

After about 2-3 days of not seeing the sun, I can happily report a change in the weather.  Today we’ll still have chilly/breezy conditions, but skies are already clearing in the region.  The reason for the change is that the area of low pressure that was in the region has moved farther north.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High pressure is nudging in from the southwest.  There is a large upper level trough over the east and west coasts with a ridge in the central U.S.  Our east coast trough had helped to create the nor’easter system over the last couple of days and move it north/northwest.

With the high building-in we’ll see a lot more sunshine over the next few days.  However, since the low is still very intact to the north, the breeze will stay strong for another 12 or so hours.  Winds will run out of the northwest at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.  The higher gusts will be near the shore.  High temps will be in the upper 40s to near 50.  Overnight we will be colder.  Skies will clear for the most part.  Plus winds will weaken.  So low temperatures will be in the low/mid 30s.  There may even be a few upper 20s inland if the wind really cuts.  This cold start won’t help tomorrow.  We’ll have fair skies, but highs will only be in the upper 40s to near 50 again.  Winds will be westerly.  The cold air will keep getting pushed south by the low-high setup.  By the weekend, high pressure will build into the region and shut down this weather pattern.  We’ll see highs in the 50s.

Aside from local weather there’s been a lot happening out west.  They are going to get more rain over parts of California over the next couple of days.  It will be rough for some cities. California flooding.

This rain is great in the long-term as they have been suffering through one of the worst droughts in the last 1,200 years.  Wow!  That comes from a recent blog which cites recent research from the American Geophysical Union. Here’s the article: California Historic Drought.  It will be interesting to see how long the recent weather pattern will continue.

Finally, I found this neat article which talks about how hard or easy it is to predict the weather in specific cities around the country.  As expected, things are pretty tough here, but it’s not the hardest place to predict.  Here’s the article.  It’s very cool: Most Unpredictable Weather In The U.S.  

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


More Winds & Tidal Flooding

December 8th, 2014 at 8:38 am by under Weather

We had some strong winds yesterday.  There were a few gusts above 40mph near the shore which probably blew over a few holiday decorations.  The winds won’t be as bad as yesterday, but they will still be up today.  An area of low pressure is looming offshore.

Offshore Low

Offshore Low

Instead of moving to the east, the upper level winds are pulling it back to the west.  We call this retrograding.  Since the high to our northwest isn’t going anywhere, it is increasing the pressure gradient (difference in value over a given distance).  So this effect is going to increase the winds today. We’ll see northeast winds running at 10-20mph.  There will be some gusts between 30 and 35mph near the shore.  Gusts will run more towards 25mph inland.  There actually won’t be much rain through the day.  Except for some scattered showers over northeast North Carolina, most of the rain won’t move into the region until this evening.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

By this evening rain showers will move in.  The rain chances will increase from 30% chance at 5pm up to a 70% chance by 11pm.  Parts of the area could see an inch of rain.  Most of the region should see less.  Tomorrow the low will push up into Delaware and Pennsylvania. Higher amounts of rain are expected from D.C. to Philadelphia.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Most of the rain will move north with the system through the day with just a few isolated showers in the afternoon.

Future Trak (Noon Tomorrow)

Future Trak (Noon Tomorrow)

While the low will be to our north, the models do show one last batch of showers rounding the low and moving in through the evening.  Stay tuned for updates.  Things will settle down on Wednesday.  Then it should be pretty quiet into the weekend.

There is some minor tidal flooding today.  The tidal surge isn’t too bad.  So we are only expecting minor tidal flooding.  Keep in mind the waves are up.  So there will be some overwash along the Outer Banks.  The tide levels are updated from last night.  Before it even looked like we might see some moderate tidal flooding in a few locations.  This is especially the case for Kiptopeke.  Now the flooding looks minor.

Kiptopeke Tide Forecast

Kiptopeke Tide Forecast

The tide at Sewell’s Point will also be up.  Here’s the tide forecast for the lower Chesapeake Bay.

Tide Forecast Sewell's Point

Tide Forecast Sewell’s Point

If you want the latest tide forecast for these and other cities, then follow the link to the National Weather Service page: NWS tides.

I haven’t talked too much about temperatures yet.  We’ll see high temperatures in the upper 40s for the next 3 days. However, it will feel like it’s in the 30s with the wind chills today and tomorrow.  We’ll steadily warm up into the weekend into the 50s.  No heat waves in sight.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Winds And Developing Nor’easter

December 7th, 2014 at 9:16 am by under Weather

It’s interesting today because the winds have picked up as a weather system has actually pushed away from us.  Last night a cold front moved into the region.  It brought us rain showers and slowly dropped the temperatures.  This morning the front is already offshore and moving out to sea.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There was also an area of low pressure along the front. Normally, we would write this off, but it will actually do a button-hook and move back towards our region.  More on that in a moment.  Today high pressure is building in from the west.  The squeeze play between this and the offshore low is increasing our winds.  We’ve already seen gusts to 40mph near the shore.  Wind advisories are posted for cities and counties along the coast for the entire day.  Winds will run north-northeast at 15-25mph with gusts up to 45 for a large portion of the viewing area.  The good news is that we’ll start clearing out as high pressure sinks in.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Due to the wind, high temps will only rise to the upper 40s.  Tonight the winds will settle a little, but we’ll still see some gusts to 30mph near the shore.  Then tomorrow the area of low pressure that is offshore will drop southward.  Then it will start heading back towards the U.S. coast.  Now some computer models have this low becoming a nor’easter.  A couple other models have it dying out and then a new low develops near the coast which becomes the storm.  Either way it is expected to form tomorrow afternoon off the coast and will start heading northwest.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The winds will steadily increase again through the day tomorrow.  The low will move to just east of the the Eastern Shore by tomorrow evening and will finally move into eastern New York by Tuesday afternoon.  We are expecting rain from this, but it’s possible that the heaviest rain will stay to our north.  That part of the forecast has been changing, and will need to be updated though.  It depends on the exact track.  The reason the system is retrograding (moving west instead of east) is due to a large trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  This trough is moving in from the west and will actually develop the low and pull it northwest.  The whole system will throw some more cold air down our way.  High temps will only be in the upper 40s for several days.  At least we’ll dry out by the end of the week.

All of these persistent winds are expected to produce some minor-moderate tidal flooding.  We are very close to a full moon. So the tide is up a bit anyway.  Tides will run about 1.5-2 feet above normal.  In a few places it may be even more than that.  So be prepared if you live in a tidal-prone area.  We’ve already seen some tidal flooding this morning.  We’ll see the tidal flooding for the next 48 hours.  Here is the high tide forecast for Sewell’s Point:

Sewell's Point Tide Forecast

Sewell’s Point Tide Forecast

The tide will be high for many.  Here are the tide forecasts for Duck, NC and Wachapreague:

Tide Forecast (Duck NC)

Tide Forecast (Duck NC)

 

Tide Forecast For Wachapreague

Tide Forecast For Wachapreague

Tide forecasts are notorious for changing around here.  So check the National Weather Service site for updates: NWS Tide Forecasts.  There are also more sites to choose for the forecast.

The tide this morning wasn’t too bad, but the tide really didn’t get a chance to build yet.  So I am more concerned about tomorrow morning and possibly the evening (which is likely to increase).  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Wet Weather Soon, And Record Snow Cover?

December 5th, 2014 at 9:15 am by under Weather

While the headline does have the 4 letter s word in the title, there is no snow in our forecast…Yet.  I’ll have more on the snow talk in a moment.  Locally, we had some rain and sprinkles between last night and early this morning.  It dwindled down to some spotty sprinkles with lots of clouds.

Satetllite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is a weak area of high pressure to our northeast.  Also there is plenty of moisture streaming in (in the upper levels) from the west.  So today we’ll see quite a bit of clouds.  I won’t rule out a few sprinkles seeing as there are numerous scattered showers to our west.  But there shouldn’t be much.  The wind will be less than yesterday. So that will allow us to warm up a bit.  The whole region will see highs in the 50s.  We’ll probably get some mid-upper 50s going this afternoon based on the latest trends.

Tomorrow, a cold front will come in from the west along with a developing area of low pressure.   We’ll be just ahead of the system during the day.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Moisture will pool in from the southwest.  The surface winds will be out of the south-southwest at 8-12mph.  This will let the temperatures rise to the low 60s despite ample clouds.  The rain chances will be small in the morning (30%), but will increase to 60% by the afternoon and to 90% by the evening.  Here is what Future Track shows for 3pm tomorrow and 8pm tomorrow.

Future Trak (3pm) Saturday

Future Trak (3pm) Saturday

Future Trak (8pm Saturday)

Future Trak (8pm Saturday)

Rain will taper off but continue into early Sunday morning.  The rain should push out, but clouds are expected to linger through the day.  We are expecting about 1″ of rain with some cities seeing 1.5-2″.  On Sunday temps will get knocked back a bit.  Highs will only be near 50.  Winds will be out of the northeast again.

We’ll have a cool few days next week.  No big weather systems will move into the region, but we’ll see a decent amount of clouds.  A weak offshore low may bring us a few showers late Monday into Monday night, but that should head out by Tuesday.

In global news…  This Fall has had record snow on the ground in the northern hemisphere.  It’s been very confusing lately as the recent headlines have talked about how 2014 could be the warmest year on record.  That is especially confusing since I think the eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. has has one of the coolest years in a while.  Here is an article with more information on the subject: Record Snow Cover.

To me it seems like the pattern is changing.  All of the wet weather in west is a sign that the pattern may be ready to change in the longer term.  True it is the wet season out there, but the models are not forecasting as large of troughs as we have seen over the past couple of months.  Could we be in for some milder/drier weather over the next few weeks?  We’ll see.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Cooler Again

December 4th, 2014 at 8:36 am by under Weather

Well…it’s a simple blog today.  We’re back in the cooler weather.  A cold front moved through the region yesterday.  Now it is well to our south.

Cold Front To The South

Cold Front To The South

We started the morning with temps in the 30s and 40s.  There were quite a bit of clouds.  Normally behind a cold front, high pressure builds-in and you clear out for a while.  However, high pressure is fairly weak right now, and moisture is streaming in from the west in the upper levels. This will give us partly to mostly cloudy skies today.  Surface winds will be out of the northeast at 10-15mph.  So high temperatures will only be in the upper 40s with a few 50s south.  We may see a few sprinkles tonight or early tomorrow, but no large area of rain is expected to move in.  Tomorrow we’ll see more clouds and highs will be in the low 50s.  Winds will still be from the northeast, but they should be weak.

We’ll warm up a little this weekend. Highs will be near 60 on Saturday.  Then we’ll be in the 50s again on Sunday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler