Yesterday we had downpours across the area as you probably saw.  Norfolk International picked up 1.21″ of rain.  There was a few areas that had 1-3″ of rain.  Especially near the downtown tunnel, and on the Peninsula.  I tried to figure out why there was so much rain.  The day before (Monday) we had high very humidity.  We had a high precipitable water which is the rainfall potential in a region.  But it barely rained on Monday, while it was a deluge yesterday.  I did notice yesterday that in the 500 millibar chart (midlevel region of the troposphere), that there was a little kink in the temperatures.  Basically a  little cool pocket.  It was very subtle, but it may have aided in the heavy rain development.  Also, the cold/stationary front was closer yesterday as well as a weak area of low pressure.  So today we have a similar setup.  Lots of humidity, a cool pocket (weak) at 500 mb, and plenty of warmth.  So expect more rounds of showers and storms with heavy rain the main threat.  The threat for severe winds and/or hail is low since we have lots of clouds and not a lot of upper level winds, but some strong storms this afternoon are certainly possible.  Plus, it is still  possible to get some clearing later this morning.

Tonight a cold front will move through and will be the game-changer for the area.  This front will cool things down for tomorrow and will clear us out by the afternoon.  We are still looking good for Friday, but some of the long range models are now showing a weak area of low pressure trying to move in from the ocean.  I don’t trust the NAM with offshore lows, but the European is showing this now.  So stay tuned to any changes.  This is a quick blog that I am writing early.  We’ll try and get a longer more detailed blog out later today. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

We had a couple of downpours this morning across the viewing area.  They were putting down about 1-2 inches per hour, but luckily kept moving to the northeast.  First, we had some heavy rain and training over Manteo and Wanchese NC.  Heavy cells of rain kept moving over the same place (like a train over tracks) for about 2 hours.  Then there was a big break and it looked like nothing was going to happen.  Ironically, that’s also when the computer models started coming in with less rain in the forecast for the day.  Then all of a sudden another heavy area of rain formed over Suffolk and moved over the rest of the southside all the way to Virginia Beach.

Super Doppler 10 Radar (7:45am)

 This made for a messy commute between 7:30 and 8:30am.  After the rain pushes out we should see a lull in the action between mid morning and the early afternoon.  Then later today more scattered showers and storms will reform and move over the area.  The latest models don’t show too much coverage 30-40% for later today.  Most of the area will get a quarter inch or less.  However, if you get under one of the downpours you will easily get over a half inch.  A weak area of low pressure is near the region, and there is a stationary front to our west.  Winds will be southerly today so the moisture will keep pouring in.  Highs will be near 80. 

Today's Forecast

We are still looking at a lot of the same for tomorrow.  Warm and humid with scattered showers and a few storms.  Then a cold front from the Midwest will swoop down and dry things out for Thursday.  After that we are looking great going into the weekend with mostly to partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s from Friday through Sunday. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

This last weekend we had some of the most beautiful weather that I’ve seen in a while.  We had dry conditions, mild temps, and a slight breeze.  Our family went up to Blue Bird Gap farm in Hampton on Saturday.  Then after some Mother’s Day things in the morning, I painted the deck Sunday afternoon.  Now you know… Last night a few showers snuck in ahead of schedule and made me sweat my painted masterpiece.  Luckily it had a chance to dry before the sprinkles arrived.  Today we’ll see some scattered showers.  They will mostly be on the light side, but  a few thunderstorms will try to mix in during the afternoon. 

Today's Weather Forecast

Over western Virginia/North Carolina there will be some heavy rain, and it will train over the same area again and again.  We call this training, because it is similar to train cars go over the tracks.  So there will probably be some flooding between Asheville, Charlottesville, and just west of D.C.  Part of this is due to some orographic lift helping the overrunning.  Orographic lift basically means that when air hits mountains the air literally gets shoved upward.  This rising air can cause clouds and rain to form or at least to become enhanced.  That is the case for today.  Locally, we are only expecting about a quarter to a half inch of rain.  However they could see 3-5 inches between Charlottesville to Frederick VA. 

Forecast Rain Totals

 For the next 2-3 days we’ll see a stuck weather pattern.  A weak/broad area of low pressure will slowly meander through the region.  By Thursday it will push out, and we’ll be setup for a nice 3-5 days stretch through the weekend.  An offshore low could form around Sunday, but for now it looks like it will be far enough offshore to not affect our weather.  We’ll possibly see a repeat of this last weekend if nothing changes.  Stay tuned on that one. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

We started off the big Mother’s Day weekend just right.  We had some spotty clouds early this morning which pushed southeast and let the sun shine through:

Tower Cam In Virginia Beach

 Temperatures were in the 50s mostly with a few 60s near the shore and a few 40s far inland. We will have a light northwest wind today with dry conditions.  It will be very comfortable this afternoon with highs in the low/mid 70s.  For the next few days we will have a large area of high pressure in control of the weather.  It will make for some really nice outdoor conditions. 

Large Area Of High Pressure

 Notice the large area of rain over Texas.  They finally got some short-term relief in the western part of the state.  That upper level system is going to head east and bring some minor drought relief to Georgia.  They are suffering from a long-term drought as well.  That system will then slowly move to the east coast and then will move offshore and northeast.  It will bring us a chance for some showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, but could change track.  So stay tuned for any changes to the rain chances for those days.  In the mean time enjoy the great weekend.  There are a lot of graduations, the Greek Festival, the Wine Festival, and Mother’s Day.  So it will be busy.  Enjoy!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Yesterday the rain came as advertised.  Luckily it didn’t produce widespread flooding, but there were a lot of streets that were slow going due to  high water.  Here is our doppler estimated rainfall across the region:

Radar Estimated Rain Totals

 Weather Watchers had some high amounts.  Henry in Denbigh (Newport News) had 0.75″ of rain.  Donna in Blackwater (south Virginia Beach) had an impressive 2.2″.  Greg in Currituck NC had 2.4″.  Jan in Reedville had 0.8″, and Doris on the Lower Eastern Shore had 1″.  Pam just called me and reported 1.1″ in Gloucester.  So the amounts were impressive.  Here are some of the official reports from the National Weather Service.  Notice 2 stations have an R which represents a daily record that was broken:

Rain Reports From Yesterday

 Some areas like the Northern Neck and from Williamsburg to Richmond still need rain.  However Elizabeth City does not.  Here are the departures from the average annual rainfall so far this year:

Departure From Average Rainfall

 My weather watcher Greg in North Carolina said that he definitely doesn’t need any more rain for a while.  A lot of farmers just finished planting crops, and they don’t want the fields flooded out.  The good news is that we will get a chance to dry out today, and we will stay dry for a few days. 

High pressure is building into the region and will create a lot of sunshine today.  Winds will be breezy out of the northwest with gusts up to 25mph.  Other than that it will be a nice day with highs in the low/mid 70s. 

Today's Forecast Map

 Tonight the winds will slacken and skies will be mostly clear.  So low temperatures will drop to the low 50s with a few upper 40s inland.  It will be a decent cool down.  The high pressure area will give us nice weather for the next few days.  We will be mostly to partly sunny all the way through Monday.  Mother’s Day looks good with highs in the upper 70s and partly cloudy skies.  So that is my gift to all the mom’s out there.  Course now I have to figure out how to top that with a nice gift for my wife.  Hmmmm. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

So far this morning we’ve only seen scattered light-to-moderate showers. 

Super Doppler 10 This Morning

 The cold front was located just east of the Virginia-West Virginia border.  Ahead of the front moisture continued to stream in from the south/southwest.  Showers will continue to be scattered through the late morning.  There isn’t a lot of lift in the atmosphere expected for the first half of the day.  So I don’t think we’ll see too many thunderstorms just yet. 

Scattered Showers This Morning

 By the afternoon the front will steadily nudge into central Virginia and North Carolina.  It will become the focus for heavier steadier rain along with scattered thunderstorms.  If we get a few breaks in the clouds in the late morning, then we will warm up a little more than expected before the front arrives.  This could allow for some strong/possibly severe storms to develop in the late afternoon into the early evening.  However, if we hold on to the clouds then the threat for strong storms stay low.  Either way I think there will be a threat of heavy rain and ponding on roadways.  Our latest run (6z) of our Future Trak computer model brings the heavier rain and storms in a little later now.  It shows more of the focus between 4pm and 11pm:

Future Trak (5pm)

 It tallies up the forecast rainfall totals to about an inch for most of the area between this morning and the next 24 hours:

Forecast Rain Totals

 Tonight the rain will taper off after midnight.  The front will move through by then.  A few showers will linger into very early Thursday.  Then northwest winds will dry us out.  Skies will be partly cloudy and highs will be in the lower 70s with lower humidity.  Friday will be pretty cool with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.  At least it will be dry.  Then we’ll have a nice weekend with mostly/partly sunny skies and highs in the low/mid 70s.  I had some rain for Sunday night and Monday, but the latest models only show a very slight chance for rain now during that time. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Before we start talking about the wet weather let’s talk about how nice today is looking.  We started with gorgeous sunshine and temperatures in the 50s and 60s this morning.  The breeze is out of the south today, so afternoon highs are aiming for the upper 70s to low 80s.  Rain will stay to our west and high pressure will try to hold out for one more day:

Today's Forecast Looks Good

 By tonight a few showers will enter the picture, but the widespread rain will wait until tomorrow.  Tomorrow showers and storms will continue on and off with a wide area of rain and storms developing through Wednesday afternoon and evening.  This will be due to a high amount of moisture streaming in out ahead of the next cold front.  It will also be due to some decent PVA (positive vorticity advection).  That’s a fancy way of saying an upper level trough is moving in from the west and will cause some lift in the atmosphere. 

Tomorrow's Wet Forecast

 If we get some breaks in the clouds in the first half of the day, then we may increase the chance for severe weather.  For now I’d say we have a low threat for that.  There will be a higher chance for (localized) flooding.  Our Future Trak model is estimating an inch or more of rain for the region.  I think there will be a wide area of 1-1.5″ of rain.  This morning’s model run was even showing one area with 3″, but you have to be careful not to read into it directly.  I’m sure the next update will move the bullseye of heaviest rain as is usually the case.

Forecast Rain Estimates

 The front will move through and the rain will move out by early Thursday morning.  After that we are looking good going into the weekend.  Mother’s Day looks dry, but a few showers may sneak in by Sunday night.  The latest (6z) GFS model is hinting at that. 

Finally before I go…We had an awesome photo sent in by a viewer to our email reportit@wavy.com. 

Lightning On The James River

 The photo was sent in by Harrison Forrest in Newport News.  He captured a very amazing and very scary lightning strike on camera last Friday night.  If you ever see something like this, then A. count your blessings, and B. make sure you stay indoors and away from the windows until things settle down.  Also stay off of wired devices like computers, wired phones, and video game systems. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

First off let me say that if you read my last blog from Friday, then you know that I was headed to the theatres this weekend to see the Avengers.  It was everything I expected and more.   I was very impressed to say the least. 

Outside of that we had a mixed bag of weather this weekend.  We had on and off showers Saturday.  Norfolk picked up about a half an inch of rain, but Elizabeth City had about 1.5″.  My weather watcher Greg in Currituck, NC said he didn’t get too much rain, but he said one person he talked to had around 4″ in the Elizabeth City area.  The grass and plants are looking pretty healthy throughout the region.  On Sunday things cleared up a bit, and we had some nice weather.  Today started off great, and we are looking at comfortable conditions through the day.  Skies will be mostly to partly sunny.  Highs will be in the low/mid 70s, and the humidity should be low.  We are pretty much out of the woods with the pollen, and it should continue to drop off to pretty much nothing this week.  High pressure will nose in from the northeast and create nice weather for most of the east coast.

Today's Forecast Map

 Tomorrow high pressure will hold on, providing partly sunny skies.  Showers and storms will try to move in from the northwest Tuesday night.  We’ll warm up with a high chance for showers and storms on Wednesday.  Then the next cold front will move through by Wednesday night.  It will cool things down going into next weekend. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Overnight last night we had one small batch of storms form over Surry county.  It moved southeast through Chesapeake and dissipated over Currituck.  Other than that we had a lot of warmth and moisture.  Fog developed through the early morning, and it got very thick in some places.  Once again we had some delays reported form several North Carolina schools. 

Fog This Morning

 After the fog dissipates later this morning, then we’ll see partly cloudy skies develop.  We’ll stay partly cloudy through most of the day.  Warm weather will push back in from the west after yesterday’s mixed temperatures.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s with a few low 90s inland.  A sea breeze may develop later today cooling down some coastal communities.  Otherwise it will be pretty steamy.   Storms will develop to our west this afternoon.  As we get into the evening we’ll see some scattered showers and storms try to move in.  Western sections of the viewing area will see the highest chance for rain, with at least some hit or miss showers and storms across Hampton Roads itself.  We’re looking at between 5 and 8pm for that to occur.  Overnight we’ll see a few more showers and storms (30%).  Tomorrow’s forecast has been changing every day it seems.  The latest models show some scattered showers with a few storms during the first half of the day with only an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon.  This is mostly because it looks like the next cold front is coming through sooner than previous forecasts.  Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 70s.  Then on Sunday we are looking drier and cooler with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s.  That should be nice and seasonable.  We’ll stay cool into early next week with a little warming by the middle of next week. 

I do have some outdoor work to do this weekend, but at some point I will be visiting a theatre to see the new Avengers movie.  Being a movie buff, and a fan of super heroes I am really stoked to see it.  I think I am going to go with Don Roberts and my son.  That is…if it’s not sold out.  It will be a good way to forget this past weeks forecasting.  Tough and frustrating to say the least.  Anway, have a good weekend! 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Yesterday’s bust forecast ties in to today’s forecast quite well actually.  Yesterday morning things looked like they were really lining up.  5 out of 5 sources called for scattered thunderstorms.  We had a hot/humid/unstable airmass in place with a frontal boundary close by. 

Yesterday Morning

 We even had a slight risk for severe weather posted by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, and that lasted through the early evening.  As the day went on though things changed.  Some of the models like the 4 kilometer NAM (A high resolution model) started showing dryer/more stable conditions in the area.  I monitored the weather, and noticed that some of the winds started turning out of the north.  Basically the more stable airmass had begun to push inland, and it pushed in much earlier than expected.  This was really evident on the CAPE (instability) graphic on the SPC site.  The instability inland reached up to 2,500, but it was very stable in the metro and along the shore (near 0).  The stablity kept increasing through the evening as the cooler air pushed in.  Again, storms like instability so they stayed west and south. 

Yesterday Afternoon

 Today the cold front is setup inland.  It has turned stationary.  This will help to create a big split in temperatures.  It should also help to keep things stable, with only a stray shower or two possible. 

Today's Forecast

Here is our computer model’s forecast for high temperatures today for the region:

Forecast High Temperatures

As you can see the model is calling for 60s on the Eastern Shore.  I think a few upper 60s are possible up towards Chincoteague, but otherwise the Shore will see 70s.  Upper 70s to low 80s are expected in the metro and near the shore.  Mid-upper 80s are likely inland.  There will a lot of heating there today.  Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy after a foggy start to the day. 

Tonight a few spotty showers are possible as the front begins to lift north.  Tomorrow the heat pushes back.  So highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.  Skies will be partly cloudy with some storms forming by Friday evening.  On Saturday there will be some early showers and then the cold front will move through late in the day (possibly the evening).  That is when more scattered storms are forecast.  They should push out by early Sunday.  Then we’ll have partly cloudy skies with highs in the low 70s.  Cool again on Monday.  Stay tuned to tweaks in the timing of all of these systems.  Needless to say the models haven’t been handling things….eh consistently.  To put it nicely.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler