It has been a tough forecast over the last 24 hours. While we did have a couple of rounds of showers and storms, they weren’t too bad. Meanwhile there were many reports of severe weather around parts of the Midwest and Southeast. A strong cold front moved from the Midwest into the Appalachians overnight. Showers and storms along the front fell apart since then.
The trick today was tracking the moisture…or lack of it. At the surface this morning there was ample moisture and even some instability. Here were the dew points:
It was warm and muggy. Temps started in the upper 70s to low 80s. However, at the mid-levels, there was a strong punch of dry air coming in from the west. This can be seen very well on our Water Vapor product.
This tool shows the dry/moist air at the mid levels of the Troposphere. I’ll admit it’s pretty complicated how it works. There’s more info on the link above. However, all you need to know in this context is that the dry air has reached our area, and that will lower our rain chances today. Even though the cold front still lies to our west. The dry air is the dark and orange area on the above map.
Eventually we’ll also dry out at the lower levels. You will notice it by the end of the day. Highs will be in the low 90s, but there will be a strong breeze through the day. It will run out of the southwest, then west at 10-20mph. Other than a few isolated showers and storms, we’ll see some nice weather.
Tomorrow the front will stall out off shore. We could see a few isolated showers or storms during the afternoon. Otherwise, it will be a very nice day. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will be out of the north at 10mph. Great weather will follow for Wednesday through Friday. Highs will be in the 80s. It will be nice and dry. Lows will be in the 60s. By next weekend we’ll up the humidity and the rain chances. I don’t see a washout, but stay tuned for finer details as it gets closer.
In the tropics there is one small area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic. This set of showers has a medium chance for development over the next few days as it moves west.
For me…until it’s something, it’s nothing. Meaning… until NHC gives it a label I’ll only keep an eye on it.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler