While we warmed up a bit yesterday, we knew it was temporary. Highs got into the upper 50s with sunshine and southwest winds. Today we’re headed back to the cold. At least for a short stint.
Cold Front In The Region
A cold front has already cleared the region. It shifted the winds in the overnight, but there wasn’t any precipitation along the boundary. Winds will be northwest today behind the front. They will run at 10-15mph with gusts up to 20mph. High pressure is building into the region. So we’ll have a lot of sunshine. But it will be cold sunshine. Highs will only be in the low 40s with some mid 40s over North Carolina. Tonight as the high builds in stronger, we’ll lighten the winds. Lows will drop to the 20s with some 30s near the shore. Then tomorrow we’ll have a light southerly wind. So highs will rise to the upper 40s. Skies will stay sunny. We are really going to warm up after that. On Sunday we’ll see highs in the low 60s. Rain will move-in, but it may not arrive until the evening. Then we’ll see scattered rain showers on Monday with highs in the 70s. There will probably be some thunderstorms near the coast. Especially over coastal North Carolina.
We won’t cool down much on Tuesday. We’ll see highs in the 60s with a few more showers. On Wednesday things could get interesting. Emphasis on Could. A colder surge of air is going to move into the region. Also an upper level disturbance will push into the area. Some moisture will linger behind a slow moving cold front. So we could see some cold rain late Wednesday. Perhaps ending as a brief Wintry mix. The main part of the upper level disturbance is expected to move through on Thursday….Thanksgiving. If the moisture is there, then we may see a little wintry mix or maybe even some snowflakes. At this time it looks like the area will be mostly dry, but some models hint at some pockets of moisture. This is still far out. So I’m not putting my stamp on that.
In the Great Lakes area there is a new problem that will be developing. Warmer temperatures are expected over the next few days. So all of the snow that is there in western New York could melt soon and cause flooding. When you have several feet of snow it could potentially melt down to several inches of water. This will be a developing story into next week.
Well… temperatures are trying to warm up. This morning we were running 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday morning. That doesn’t mean that it was a warm start. It was just much better than yesterday’s teens and 20s. As we go along today we’ll see a brief warmup. High temps will rise to the mid 50s with lots of sunshine and southwest winds at 10-15mph.
The average high is 60 degrees for this time of year. Don’t get too excited though. Instead of a steady climb into the weekend, we are going to see another quick drop in temperatures. A cold front will move through tonight. It will move through dry. So there won’t be any precipitation with it. We’ll just see a brief bump in clouds tonight. Then tomorrow behind the front we’ll have northwest winds at 10-15mph. This will tap into the Midwest cold pool and let it flow into the Mid-Atlantic. Highs tomorrow will only be in the low 40s despite mostly sunny skies.
The good news is that this next cold wave is also going to be short-lived. On Saturday we’ll re-develop southerly winds. So high temps will climb to near 50. Then on Sunday we’ll build the temps even more. So highs will reach the mid 60s. The models have held the rain back on Sunday. So now it looks like the rain will wait until Sunday night. On Monday we’ll see highs in the 70s, but there will be scattered showers. Thunderstorms??? Possibly. But hey it’ll be warm.
Meanwhile in other parts of the country, the lake effect snow machine is in full force. Parts of New York are looking at 9 feet of snow. 9 FEET? That’s like me standing on my own shoulders. Which would be a tough feat to accomplish. : ) Seriously though, they are getting hammered with mountains of snow in western New York.
When cold air blows over warmer water and the conditions are right, then heavy snow can form in bands. This is know as lake-effect snow. There has to be some humidity in the atmosphere, but most of the moisture is supplied by the lakes and evaporation. The water temperatures have to be a set amount warmer than the air above it. Plus the winds have to have a long enough fetch (length of the winds over the water). Usually this type of weather pattern happens in the Winter when the lakes have a lot of ice on them. However, the cold blast happened very early. So the lakes are mostly ice-free. Therefore, the lake-effect snow machine is in full force.
The problem is that many people will be trapped in their homes for days due to the heavy snow. Some have already been trapped for a couple days. So unfortunately residents of western New York state could be running out of food soon. Also, if the snow were to rapidly melt, then flooding could be a problem. this is slowly becoming a major disaster.
Welcome to the November ice box. It is very early in the season to get temperatures like these, but here they are:
We bottomed out around 28 at Norfolk International Airport. The record there is 25 degrees (1959). However, we did break a record in Elizabeth City, NC. It dropped to 20 degrees briefly this morning. The old record was 21 degrees (1959). Also Wallops Island broke a record. The low dropped to 21. The old record was 25 degrees (2005). There were many teens and 20s in the region. High pressure is building into the area. We have a very dry airmass in place. So we’ll see a lot of sunshine today.
We’ll start with light northwest winds. We’ll end with light southwest winds. Highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Tonight the low temps shouldn’t be as cold. Even a light southwest winds sometimes will add a few degrees to the temperatures. So I’m expecting lows in the low 30s with 20s inland. We’ll warm up a bit Thursday afternoon, but it won’t be a heat wave. Highs will be in the low 50s. Then a cold front will drop temps again on Friday. Highs will be in the 40s for Friday and Saturday. We’ll reach the 60s though by Sunday, and we are aiming for 70 by Monday. The tradeoff is that rain is expected on those days.
Despite this recent cold, there has been a headline that the globe may have just had one of the warmest Octobers on record. I guess it was warmer over many other parts of the globe, and water temperatures were the main factor. Here’s an article about the subject. Warmest October on record?
While many (majority???) scientists believe in Global warming and that humans have had a big part in causing it, farmers mainly have a different opinion. From a recent study, it seems that the majority of farmers tend to not believe that humans have had a decent factor in Global Warming. However, many do believe that climate change has occurred. Here is that article. Scientists, farmers, and Global Warming.
It felt like Spring for a bit yesterday with the warm/humid conditions around. We even had a couple of waterspouts pop out of some thunderstorms (Severe Blog). Then… as advertised…yesterday’s warmth was replaced by a much colder air mass. During yesterday afternoon temperatures rose to the low 70s across most of the region. Then the front came through, and we’ve been dropping ever since. Here is a good example. Look at Suffolk’s temperatures for the past 14 hours:
Many temperatures this morning were in the 30s. Winds were from the northwest at 10-15mph. This allowed the cold air to pour into the region.
Wind chills were even in the 20s in several cites. As high pressure builds in today, the winds will stay up out of the northwest.
We’ll see mostly to partly sunny skies and highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s this afternoon. Technically we already hit the highs for the day right after midnight, but the afternoon temps will be cold. Tonight skies will clear and winds will lighten up. Temps will be dropping into the mid-upper 20s with a few teens inland. If you are in some rural/inland locations, then you may want to drip the faucets tonight. It’s waayyy too early to be doing it, but hey.
Forecast Low Temps
Tomorrow we’ll have sunshine, but temps won’t climb much. We’ll top out near 40 degrees. We’ll warm up a bit on Thursday (low 50s). Then another cold front will move through and drop us to the 40s on Friday. We’ll get back to some 60s by Sunday, but rain showers will move into the region.
We have had some clearing over the region, and this has increased the instability. The models had some clearing earlier this morning, but not this much. Temps are already warming to the 70s from northeast North Carolina up to the Southside.
I looked at the parameters for severe weather. Nothing is off the charts, but there is a decent amount of helicity (spin with height) in the atmosphere. Instability (storm potential) is increasing with the sunshine, and the upper level wind support (wind shear) is also decent. So we’ll be on the lookout for some isolated severe weather this afternoon into the evening.
There were some heavy rain showers around midday, but there actually weren’t too many thunderstorms. The storms are likely to increase in coverage through the afternoon into the early evening hours. Here’s what I have for the rain chances for the rest of the day:
There is a wider area of rain to our west. As that gets closer then it should put a cap on temperatures.
Super Doppler 10
The cold front is expected this evening between 5 and 8 pm. We’ll see a line of showers and gusty winds during that time. Winds will turn from the south to out of the northwest as the front moves through.
Future Trak (5pm)
Then the cold air arrives. We’ll clear out by midnight. Then temps will drop to the upper 30s. Despite sunshine tomorrow we’ll only rise a couple of degrees during the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 30s to near 40. I have more on the cold weather in the previous blog.
(Update: there is a tornado watch up for northeast North Carolina through the evening as there has been some clearing there and heating. Keep an eye to the sky today).
I tried to think of a great way to describe the upcoming weather that we are going to see in the region. I love to personify it, but I’ve been running out of original ideas. So instead of tackling the weather part of it, I’ve decided to create a new thing! The super coat. It will be like those sunglasses that change when the light changes. Maybe something like Marty Mcfly’s coat in Back to the Future 2. Yep…A new coat that keeps you warm when it’s cold and mild when it’s cool. It could have pullover layers. Kind of like bowhunters gloves. Maybe a solar cell layer that adds a heating element. Maybe it can change to lighter colors when it gets warmer out and turn darker when it’s frigid. Clothiers…there you go. Make it happen. Idea is free of charge.
Ahem, so anyway to my point about weather…There’s been a big up and down trend in temperatures lately. We continue with that…So today we are going to be very warm, and tomorrow we’ll be very cold. A warm front was moving into the region this morning.
Some moisture moved in ahead of the front and caused scattered fog and isolated showers. The rain will pick up later today as a powerful cold front approaches from the west.
Strong southerly winds and the warm front will lift temperatures into the low 70s this afternoon. This will be despite ample clouds and scattered showers. The warmth will help to create some instability. So as we get into the late afternoon/early evening we’ll see some thunderstorms. Some storms may be strong with gusty winds over 30mph being the main threat. This is the forecast from Future Trak at 5pm:
Future Trak (5pm)
The front will move through Hampton Roads between 6 and 8pm. At least that’s the latest forecast, but it may have to get tweaked around midday. The drier weather will get here before the really cold air. So we aren’t expecting any snow tonight. Rain should end by midnight. Then temps will drop to the upper 30s by tomorrow morning. We’ll have partly cloudy skies Tuesday, but there will also be some breezy northwest winds. They will run at 10-15mph with a few higher gusts. So temperatures will be stuck. They will only rise a couple degrees to the upper 30s to near 40. Wind chills will be near 30 in the morning and low 30s in the afternoon. Brrr. High pressure will build in tomorrow and will settle the winds by tomorrow night. This will set us up for the coldest air of the season so far. Forecast lows will be in the the mid 20s for Wednesday morning. That means that inland temperatures will probably be in the teens, and it means that some cities near the shore will finally get their first freeze. Jan in Reedville says that she still hasn’t had a frost yet. We won’t warm up much Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be near 40 with sunshine. We will warm up a bit Thursday into Friday, but not much. Highs will be in the 50s. Then we’ll see more chilly air on Saturday. Highs will be in the 40s. It looks like we’ll see a warmer weather pattern next week. Course things could change before then. Either way I say….It’s time for SUUUUUUPER COAT.
Yesterday, I mentioned that if the moisture could linger a little longer this morning, then we could see some sleet or snow mixing in with the rain showers. Well…it happened. This morning we have numerous reports of sleet mixing in with the light rain showers.
Radar This Morning
Luckily the surface and ground temperatures were well above freezing. So anything frozen that fell had melted. We were in the upper 30s to low 40s with a few mid 30s north of the metro. Remember while it’s above freezing near the surface, it’s below freezing a couple thousand feet up in the atmosphere. So that’s how sleet was able to form. Through the day we’ll have clearing skies. However, we’ll see strong winds from the north at 10-20mph and gusts up to 25mph. So despite the clearing we’ll only top out in the mid 40s for highs today. The average high is 62 degrees. Wow! Basically the cold front that stalled out offshore is finally making a push east again. High pressure is building east. So the cold air is resuming its eastward march.
Tonight the winds will letup and skies will clear out. It’s a recipe for freezing conditions in the region. In fact we’ll see freezing conditions even to near the coast tonight. There are freeze warnings for some cities. I won’t give them as they’ll update through the day, but you can find them here: National Weather Service warnings/advisories.
The lows tonight will be in the 20s inland with low 30s even near the shore. Probably a few 40s right along the shore, but that’s within a half mile.
Forecast Low Temps
Tomorrow we’ll see a fair amount of sunshine as high pressure settles into the coastal states. but with the north winds at 8-12mph, temps will still only be in the mid 40s. We’ll warm it up on Sunday into the low/mid 50s. We’ll see some clouds building into the region. Then Sunday night into Monday we’ll have widespread rain showers. At least the highs will rise up to near 60. This will be ahead of the next cold front. Behind that front high temps will once again be in the 40s for Tuesday into Wednesday. This could be a very long Winter….
I’d say that the cooler air has already moved into the region, but the cold air is still on the way. Yesterday was nice and warm. The whole region topped out in the low/mid 70s. It was a bit cooler along the coast. Clouds rolled in last night, and that actually stopped the temperatures from falling too much. So lows were in the 50s over most of the metro with 40s inland and north. At least we didn’t have any fog to track this morning. So that was a nice change.
Today the cold front that moved into the region is stalling out to our south. A weak area of low pressure is forming and is moving north along the front.
Stalled Out Front
This is stopping the really cold air from surging in already. The cold surge is briefly paused, but it’s not far away. Look at the forecast (model) high temps for today:
Forecast High Temps
I wanted to point out that these are model-based because we are likely to get more into the mid 50s since we stared near 50. As we go through the day we’ll develop some scattered showers. We might see a few sprinkles this morning, but we’ll see scattered rain showers this afternoon and evening. Here is Future Trak 3 pm:
Future Trak (3pm)
The rain looks to increase by the evening commute. In fact…we might see some spots of heavy rain between 4 and 7 pm.
Future Trak (5pm)
The rain will taper off by 9pm. Overnight the colder air will start to surge into the region. The showers may come back for a bit as a 2nd cold surge moves into the region. The showers should wrap up by 2-3am. However, if the moisture lingers a bit longer, then some sleet pellets or a few wet snowflakes could mix-in. Surface air temperatures would be above freezing and ground temps are well above freezing. So no problems are expected. The higher chance for any mix would be towards the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and/or Accomack county on the Eastern Shore. Low temps will drop to the 30s across the region tonight.
Tomorrow will be colder. As the low pushes away and pulls the cold front with it, winds will pick up. Today they are northerly at 10-15mph. Tomorrow they will be out of the north at 10-20mph with a few higher gusts near the shore. Highs will only be in the mid 40s, and the wind will make it feel even colder. On Sunday we’ll see a lot of clouds, but the models have slowed the rain moving in. So mostly cloudy skies for Sunday with highs in the low 50s. Rain will move in by Sunday night and will last for most of Monday. The good thing about Monday is the temperature. Highs will rise to near 60s or even in the low 60s. We’ll be chilly again though Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
This morning I was tracking two things. First, there was some pretty thick fog in the area. It did make for some cool camera shots. This was one from our tower cam at Windward Towers in Newport News.
Fog On Tower Cam
This was an image of the James River Bridge. You can barely make out the top of one of the cranes near the bridge. Then the fog burned off, and the sun started to pop out. It was a warm/humid morning with temps in the 60s. The strong cold front was still to our west. The weak low that brought us rain yesterday was heading farther out to sea.
Cold Front To The West
During the day we’ll see more and more sunshine. As brief high pressure moves in. This will let temps warm up to near 70 degrees. Then the front will move through this evening and will start to drop the temperatures. No rain is expected with the front. We’ll be mostly clear tonight and chilly. We’ll start in the 40s Thursday morning, but will only rise to the low 50s during the afternoon. A weak upper level disturbance and a weak low offshore low will help to create some scattered showers by Thursday afternoon. Here is what Future Trak shows for 3pm tomorrow.
Future Trak 3pm Thu.
The showers will continue into the evening, but should push out by Friday. The models have backed off of the snowflakes at the end of the precipitation. I still won’t rule it out, but I still think it would only be a few melting flakes on the tail-end early Friday morning if any fall at all. We’ll dry out through Friday. Highs will only be in the mid 40s. We’ll see lows in the 20s/30s Saturday morning. Then highs will be in the mid 40s with partly cloudy skies. We’ll rise to the 50s by Sunday, but some rain showers will move back into the picture.
Yep! That’s the short answer to the rhetorical question posed in the title to this blog. The longer answer is more interesting. They are definitely seeing an early Winter in the northern States today. Some areas could see more than 10 inches of snow. Maybe even over 15″. It’s way too early for that type of snow. Even in the Midwest. Here is the snow this morning on the satellite/radar:
Blue = Snow, Green/Yellow = Rain
Meanwhile a weak area of low pressure is sitting to our southeast. It will continue to throw some moisture/showers in our direction through the day. So if you have some outdoor events to attend for Veterans Day, then be sure to take the umbrella. With the low to our southeast, the highest chances for rain will be closer to the low. So here is my rain chance map for today:
Rain Chances Today
The showers will come in waves or pockets of light rain. Here is what Future Trak shows for 3pm:
Future Trak (3pm)
We’re not looking at much for amounts. Maybe a tenth of an inch or two. We’ll dry out tonight as the low moves northeast (staying well offshore).
As far as temps go…Get ready for some big changes. Let’s look at this forecast high temperature map.
Forecast High Temps
Today we’ll see highs in the upper 60s to near 70. Meanwhile they’ll only see highs in the 20s in Minneapolis and teens in the Dakotas. Youch! That cold air will keep sliding southeast over the next 48 hours. So today and tomorrow we’ll see highs near 70. Then highs will be in the low 50s on Thursday. The first cold front will move through early on Thursday, but we are not expecting rain with that. A second front looks to move through on Friday. So that’s when we’ll see a few rain showers and the bigger temperature drop. Highs will only be in the mid 40s on Friday. We’ll see a few showers in the morning. It could possibly end as some wet melting snowflakes, but the models aren’t very aggressive with this this morning. No matter what falls it would melt anyway. Still…it’s interesting to even have a chance for Wintry weather in early November. I think this is a sign that we’ll be dealing with snow in December. It would probably be an offshore low throwing moisture at us after one of these cold bursts come through. Or we’ll get some lingering moisture on the back side of one of these fronts. Either way I’d head out and buy those snow shovels while the prices aren’t too high. Way too early for bread and milk though.