No doubt that there’s been some rough weather to our west over the past couple of days. A powerful system has brought numerous reports of severe weather to the Deep South and the Midwest. As the system moved east it is lost some of its energy. However, we could still see a few strong storms in our region today.
A cold front was the focus for a long line of showers and storms since the overnight hours.
The line was moving very slowly to the east. Meanwhile we’ve had a few showers moving up from the south ahead of the line. We will be ahead of the front during the day. The low level winds will be very strong. Surface winds will gust up to 30mph. This will let the temperatures climb into the low 80s this afternoon. Also, the moisture is continuing to pool into the region. The line of storms will slowly edge east through the day. We may see a brief break in the clouds and rain, but this will be short lived. Here is what our Future Trak model shows for noon:
Future Trak (Noon)
If we do get some sunshine, then it will add to our instability. Then the storms will feed off of this between noon and 3pm. Wind shear is fairly high today, but the instability should be somewhat limited. The main threat from the storms will be strong gusty winds over 45mph. Also, heavy rain will be a threat as well. Hail should be very limited. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, but the chance is very low. The showers and storms will still be going into the evening, but they should be a bit more scattered at that time.
Future Trak (5pm)
The showers and storms will taper off through the late evening. The cold front will finally move through in the late evening hours between about 9pm and midnight. All-in-all we are looking at about an inch of rain in the region. A few locations will see over an inch and a half.
Forecast Rain Totals
By tomorrow we’ll see much quieter/cooler weather. Highs will be in the low 70s. We may see some sunshine in the morning, but we’ll have an increase in clouds during the afternoon. The upper level low will push through the region at that time. So we could even see a few sprinkles. Shouldn’t be much. Then we’ll finally dry out by Thursday night. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look great. We’ll see lots of sunshine and highs in the 60s and 70s.
Hurricane Gonzalo is churning over the central Atlantic waters. It has sustained winds of 125mph. This is a category 3 hurricane. It was located about 650 miles south of Bermuda, and was moving northwest at 13mph. The hurricane lost its eye for a bit this morning. Then it re-formed. But it was much smaller than it was last night.
Gonzalo On Satellite
The storm is forecast to move more to the north today, and then north-northeast by tonight. Gonzalo is encountering some wind shear and a little drier air. Soon it will also move over cooler waters. So it’s possible that it will weaken a bit as it heads towards Bermuda. However, the latest forecast still has it as a major hurricane as it approaches the island tomorrow.
This could really disrupt things over Bermuda. They not only just had hurricane Fay, but overall they have had a lot of storms over the last few years. In fact Bermuda has seen more than twice as much tropical activity as the state of Florida over the last few years.
We’ll see some waves come in from Gonzalo. We are looking at some 4 foot waves today with a few 5 footers possible. Friday and Saturday could see some 5 foot waves with a few 6 footers. Stay tuned for updates to all of this.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler