Jeremy Wheeler

Rain Chance Update, Indian Heat Wave.

May 27th, 2015 at 8:29 am by under Weather

Yesterday saw some pretty good weather outside.  High pressure provided fair skies in the region. It was warm and humid, but when the breeze blew it felt pretty good.  Especially if you were in the shade.  However, today the humidity has increased.  This morning we had a wave of clouds move through the region.  Then they started to break up during the mid-morning.  High pressure was slowly drifting farther away.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The moisture has increased in the lower and upper levels.  Dew points have risen into the mid-upper 60s.

Dew Point Temps

Dew Point Temps

So we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds through the afternoon.  Scattered showers and storms will form then.  I’m calling for a 30-40% chance for showers with a few thunderstorms.  Here is what Future Trak shows for the afternoon:

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

Yesterday it looked like we would get isolated showers today with higher chances for rain on Thursday.  The models reversed that trend a bit last night.  Part of that is because the boundary that was supposed to move closer to us tomorrow will probably fall apart before it moves close.  The other part is that the moisture has increased quite a bit today.  We’ll see.  I still have a chance for scattered showers and storms tomorrow.  Just slightly less.  (30-40% today, 30% tomorrow).

Either way, both days will be very warm and humid.  Highs will stay in the 80s.  By Friday things look to settle a bit.  Highs will still be in the 80s with only a stray shower or storm.  Then high pressure will build back into the region on Saturday.  So we’ll see partly cloudy skies.  By Sunday I am expecting a cold front to approach the region.  This will give us the highest chances for rain in the next few days.  The front will linger on Monday.  So the rain will linger as well.  I don’t mind because I am planting some patches of grass seed, and I need some rain.  Also, it’s good for the gardens.  Though I know that some folks in North Carolina don’t need any rain right now.

I mentioned the Houston flooding in yesterday’s blog.  It is still pretty bad there today as the rivers swell.  However, you may not have heard about the deadly heatwave in India.  It has killed over 1,000 people so far.  It is pretty rough over there as some temperatures are over 115 degrees (F).   Here is an article with more information.  Deadly Indian Heat Wave.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Lookin Good Here!

May 26th, 2015 at 7:19 am by under Weather

Well… I got back from a trip to Illinois yesterday, and I got to enjoy some of the nice weekend weather.  I was up there for my high school friends’ birthdays as well as my sister’s triplets’ birthdays.  It was fun, but I am worn out.  Anyway, the nice weather will continue today.

Tower Cam

Tower Cam

We have a nice/large area of high pressure in the region.  This will bring us fair skies today.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We are in a bit of a stuck pattern again.  Seems like that has been the norm over the last 2-3 years.  For us that means that we’ll see warm weather continue through the week as the high slowly drifts offshore.  However, as that happens we’ll eventually develop a few thunderstorms in the afternoons.  There may be a little better chance for scattered thunderstorms on Thursday as the above cold front approaches from the west.  It won’t move through, but it could stall out to our west or just become a trough of low pressure.

Meanwhile, the bigger story is the flooding that this pattern has produced over Texas and the deep south.  It has been rough for them lately.  Just yesterday there was severe flooding in the Houston area.  Here is a link to the story: Houston Flooding.  There was also a lot of flooding in other parts of Texas.  Texas flooding.

I don’t see anything like that in our forecast, but our moisture will be increasing.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Memorial Day Weekend Forecast

May 22nd, 2015 at 7:35 am by under Weather

The timing is working out well for this weekend.  Yesterday there were heavy downpours as an area of low pressure moved through the region.

Radar Yesterday

Radar Yesterday

The rain was very heavy, and it added up in the rain gauges.  Here are some of the rain totals for the area:

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

My weather watcher Doris on the Eastern Shore had 1.25″ of rain.  Donna in Blackwater (southern Virginia Beach) had 2.3″.  Meanwhile Greg in Currituck NC did not need rain.  Luckily he only had 0.2″.  That system is outta heeere today.  It is way out over the ocean.  High pressure is building in from the northwest.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Winds will be out of the north/northwest at 10-15mph.  We’ll be very dry today and for the next 2 days.  Highs will be in the mid 70s.  There will be lots of sunshine.  Tonight a weak cool front will move through the area.  There won’t be any precipitation with it.  However, tomorrow we’ll be a little cool behind that system.  Highs will only be in the upper 60s to low 7os. The average high temperature for this time of year is in the upper 70s.  As high pressure sits over the region and drifts around Sunday into Monday we’ll warm up.  Highs will be in the upper 70s on Sunday with fair skies.  We’ll be in the low 80s for Memorial Day itself.  It will be good for fun and for memorial services.  That will be the better day to head to any pools or beaches.  Just watch for the crowds.  Have a great weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Rainy Thursday With Some Storms

May 21st, 2015 at 8:32 am by under Weather

Over the last couple of days the computer models showed an area of low pressure that would head towards the region today.  They stubbornly kept disagreeing as to how much rain we would get and as to how organized the low would be.  Now they agree that there is a high chance for rain, and that the low is fairly organized.  As of this writing, the low was located just northeast of Charlotte, NC.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is some mid level energy in the atmosphere that will run through our region along with the surface low.  This will enhance the rainfall, and it will create the chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. It’s interesting because we will actually be pretty cool today.  Winds are out of the east at 10-15mph.  So that is a cool onshore breeze.  With the clouds and rain on top of the breeze, our temps in Hampton Roads will only be in the upper 60s to low 70s for highs.  So we are pretty much looking at rain showers with a few thunderstorms.  However, the stationary front will try to nudge north a bit.  So a few cities in North Carolina could reach up to 80 degrees.  Most likely towards Ahoskie, Edenton, and Hertford NC.  That is why there will be a higher chance for thunderstorms there.  There may even be some isolated severe weather.  Rain will continue into the evening hours.  It could slow things down for the evening commute.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

The low will start to push out between 7-9pm.  The rain will taper off through the time.  Winds will turn northwest behind the low.  We could see a few gusts up to 20mph.  Then we’ll dry out through the overnight hours.

We could see about a half inch up to an inch of rain.  There will be some cities that will get over 1.5″ of rain between this morning and this evening.

Ran Totals Forecast

Ran Totals Forecast

Following this rain, we will see some great weather.  We’ll have dry conditions between Friday and Monday. Highs will be in the low/mid 70s Friday and Saturday.  Upper 70s on Sunday.  Then we’ll have some 80s on Monday for Memorial Day. It will be awesome for outdoor events and services.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


Coolness…No…Not The Fonz!

May 20th, 2015 at 8:46 am by under Weather

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen an episode, but the blog title is a throwback to the old “Happy Days” series with the main character called the “Fonz” or Arthur Fonzarelli.  He was always a very cool character.  I miss the old TV shows as they really focused on dramatic and human stories with really good characters.  Even in the sitcoms.  I don’t believe there is as much of that in today’s television. There are exceptions.  Just my 2 quick cents.  Anyway, yes… the weather will be cooler and drier today.

Yesterday afternoon/evening we did have some scattered showers and thunderstorms trudging through the region. They didn’t make it to everybody though.

Radar Yesterday Evening

Radar Yesterday Evening

There were parts of northeast North Carolina up to Chesapeake that had a deluge.  However, the rest of the Southside missed the heavy rain.  Here are the 24 hour rain totals:

24 Hour Rain Totals

24 Hour Rain Totals

My weather watcher Scott in Yorktown had 0.44″ of rain.  There was one quick flash there yesterday evening.  Chesapeake had 0.84″.  Greg my weather watcher in Currituck had 0.5″.  he said there were a couple of towns near him that had over 2″ of rain.  However, Donna in Blackwater (southern Virginia Beach) had very little rain, and Doris on the Eastern Shore also had very little.

Today the cold front is heading south of the viewing area.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

While the front is moving through this morning, the humidity has been slow to drop . The winds didn’t really pick up until about 7am.  They will run at 10-15mph out of the north today.  So we’ll slowly filter in the drier air through midday.  High pressure is also building-in.  So we’ll see  a lot of sunshine.  High temps will be in the mid-upper 70s.  There may be a couple of 80s over inland North Carolina.

The cold front will stall to our south today.  By tomorrow it will nudge back to the north a bit.  At the same time a weak area of low pressure will develop along the front.  It will move into Hampton Roads during the afternoon.  This will bring us scattered to occasional rain showers by the afternoon.  In fact we could see some scattered thunderstorms over northeast North Carolina where temps will be a little warmer.  The rain showers will continue into the evening.

Future Trak (5pm Thursday)

Future Trak (5pm Thursday)

We could see about a half inch of rain with a bit more in some areas.  That system will move out by Thursday night.  Then we’ll have some great weather from Friday through Monday.  Highs will be in the 70s until Monday.  Then we’ll warm to the low 80s.

In national news… It’s not new news that the drought in the southwestern U.S. is still ongoing, but I found a recent article about Lake Powell that is interesting.  It not only talks about what is happening now, but it also has some history as well as what may happen in the future.  Lake Powell and the drought.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Soupy Air Indeed!

May 19th, 2015 at 8:27 am by under Weather

It’s been a while, but earlier this morning we had a thick haze on Tower Cam 10:

Tower Cam 10

Tower Cam 10

This was indicative of the high humidity in the region.  The humidity allowed showers to continue from last night into this morning.  We even had some heavy rain on the Eastern Shore.  Although a stationary front also contributed to those downpours.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The showers ended this morning, and we should see mainly quiet weather through the early afternoon. The stationary front will drift east a bit, but will sit just offshore.  Meanwhile, a cold front was beginning to move into Virginia from the west.  During the day we’ll be in-between fronts.  This is where the heat and humidity will be high.  This will lead to a good amount of instability for thunderstorms to form.  However, there isn’t a lot of upper level wind support.  So as we go into the late afternoon and evening we could see some areas of heavy rain, but I don’t expect severe weather at this time.  A few strong gusts are possible as the downpours fall through some downbursts, but these should be isolated.

Future Trak (6:30pm)

Future Trak (6:30pm)

Heavy rain could slow you down during the evening rush hour.  So keep that in mind when heading home from work.   The front should push through by 10pm.  After that we’ll enjoy some great weather for Wednesday.  High temps will be in the mid 70s, we’ll dry things out, and there will be a nice northerly breeze at 5-15mph.
However, on Thursday the cold front will have stalled out to our south.  It may try and push some moisture back our way.  So some scattered showers will try to re-develop.  The models differ as to how much rain will move in.  So stay tuned for updates.  After that we are looking pretty good for the Memorial Day Weekend.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Someone Fan Me Please!

May 18th, 2015 at 8:40 am by under Weather

I don’t mean like my facebook page.  Well…you can.  That would be great.  However, I mean I would like to get someone to get one of those giant ancient Greek fans that they used to cool down the caesars.  Not that I want to be a king, but I need some portable air conditioning.  So far we’ve had an overall dry and cool Spring.  Since Sunday the heat and humidity have felt like mid-Summer.  It continues today and tomorrow.

There were a few showers in the region yesterday evening.  Some of those showers moved southeast into our region since last night.  So we had some spotty showers early.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There was a stationary front to our east.  This may brush the Eastern Shore and cool down the residents there.  Otherwise, it is going to be humid with highs in the mid-upper 80s.  A few 90s are possible inland.  Winds will be westerly at 5-10mph except on the Eastern Shore where they will be variable.  Expect some scattered showers and storms this afternoon.  A few spots of heavy rain are possible, but severe weather is not expected.  By tomorrow the stationary front will remain in place. Also, we’ll see a cold front moving in from the west.  Most of the region will be in-between.  So expect another warm/humid day.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

The cold front will move in towards the evening, but some scattered storms will fire up ahead of the front during the afternoon.  Highs will be in the low/mid 80s with light & variable winds.  The scattered storms will continue into tomorrow evening.  Then things will quiet down going into Tuesday night.  We’ll dry things out by Wednesday. Highs will be in the low/mid 70s.  We’ll stay in the 70s into the weekend.  While the weather does look pretty quiet Wednesday into the weekend, the cold front may stall out just to out south.  So a few showers may try to sneak into the Thursday forecast.  Stay tuned!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Event Weather This Weekend

May 15th, 2015 at 7:44 am by under Weather

There are a TON of outdoor events happening this weekend.  We will have some good weather for them, but it will be warm.  Today we started with some cool air and nice weather.  Temps bottomed out in the 40s and 50s early.  There were some clouds around, but these will thin out through the late morning and midday hours.  High pressure is in control, but some upper level moisture is causing the thin clouds to spread over our region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The high is scooting offshore today. This will allow for light southeast winds to form.  So high temps will warm up a bit compared to yesterday. They will rise to the low/mid 70s.  Tomorrow a warm front will lift through the area.  This will boost the high temps up to the mid 80s.  Plus the humidity will increase.  Some showers may return by Sunday night, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

As mentioned…there are a lot of events in the region this weekend.  We have good weather for all of the events.  Rather than label them all, here is a link with more information to most of the events: hrscene.com.

Whatever you are doing, have a great weekend!

One more thing.  They recently got some rain in southern California.  While it won’t break the drought, it is great news in the short term.  Here is a link to the story: California Rain.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Breath Of Fresh Air

May 14th, 2015 at 8:09 am by under Weather

Well, this will be brief.  After all, we have a quiet weather pattern for the next few days.  A large area of high pressure has taken over the eastern 1/3rd of the United States.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This is going to give us a lot of sunshine and a cool northeast breeze. High temps will be cool this afternoon. We’ll be running in the upper 60s to low 70s.  The humidity is very low.  Dew points are in the 40s today.  That is bone dry for this time of year.  The humidity and temperatures will increase into the weekend.

Humidity Forecast

Humidity Forecast

We’ll warm to the low/mid 70s tomorrow. We’ll be in the low/mid 80s this weekend. There will be some rain showers close to our region this weekend, but it looks like they’ll stay just west of us. Stay tuned to see if they try and get any closer.  Rain is likely to move in by Sunday night into Monday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


The 7-10 Storm Split

May 13th, 2015 at 8:19 am by under Weather

I’ve seen it in action.  Some call it the Hampton Roads bubble.  Today I called it the 7-10 split.  That is a bowling term in which the 7 pin and the 10 pin (yes, they are numbered) is left.  They are totally split on opposite ends of the lane after your first try.  The only way to get both is basically to bounce one pin into the other on your second try.  I’ve done it, but it is tough.  So in weather…. Check out the first frame on the satellite/Radar yesterday afternoon:

Developing Storm To Our West

Developing Storm To Our West

It looked like Hampton Roads was going to be in for a soaker as the storm near South Hill started to grow and move east.  Then… it split.  Take a look:

Splitting Storm

Splitting Storm

Not only did it split, but it weakened.  To add to the weirdness…the atmosphere was very unstable yesterday.  It was the type of instability that storm-chasers look for.  CAPE (Instability) was up to 3,000 J/KG.  The minimum for thunderstorms is about 500.  However, there was hardly any upper level wind support.  If there was, then it would have been severe weather city.  So we got lucky.  There were a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings over our western counties, but Hampton Roads fared well.  The “Marginal” risk for severe weather was a good call by the Storm Prediction Center.

Those storms were just ahead of a cold front.  Now that front is to our south.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High pressure is settling in nicely.  There were some clouds around this morning, but they will break up through the day.  The air is getting drier by the minute.  Dew points were near 70 yesterday.  They are dropping to the 40s today.

Dew Points

Dew Points

Winds will be out of the north/northwest today at 10-15mph.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 70s.  Tomorrow we’ll have a northeast breeze at 10-15mph.  So tomorrow will be even cooler.  In fact highs will be in the upper 60s.  The average high temperature for this time of year is 75 degrees.  We’ll see more 70s for Friday and Saturday with some low 80s on Sunday.  The weekend forecast has dried up since yesterday.  So I now have both Saturday and Sunday dry.  Looks good for any outdoor events.  And there are quite a few.

In national news…The worlds biggest hurricane simulator has just been built in Miami, Florida. “SUSTAIN” will help researchers better understand how waves impact structures.  Here’s the article: Worlds largest hurricane simulator.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler