Jeremy Wheeler

If Today Were A Movie. Also 2011 Tornado Outbreak.

April 17th, 2015 at 8:47 am by under Weather

If today’s weather were a movie, then it would actually be fairly dull and quiet.  No big players, no big plots, no big song and dance.  So why would I even mention it.  Probably, because I am an avid movie lover as well as a meteorologist.  And if you haven’t heard…The new trailer for the upcoming Star Wars sequel is out.  Here it is: Star Wars: The Force Awakens Trailer.   Also, you may have heard that the Super Man versus Batman trailer will be out on Monday officially.  There have been some leaks, but I won’t post them here.   I am very psyched about Star Wars, and I’m very curious about the D.C. movie. Even this Summer will be huge with the Avengers sequel and Jurassic Park.  I can’t wait.  Sorry, I just had to mention it.  This weekend will be more for the outdoors though.

As I mentioned…the weather today is pretty quiet, but a tad tricky too.  (oops I guess that’s a plot twist).  Like yesterday, we are in-between systems.  There is still an area of high pressure to the northeast.  There’s also a weak area of low pressure to the south.

In-Between Systems

In-Between Systems

There is a good amount of moisture in the region.  So that’s mainly why we’ve had some showers lately.  There were a few north of the metro this morning, but they were light and scattered.  Through the day we’ll see partly to mostly cloudy skies.  The trend has been for clearing around the midday hours with clouds returning in the afternoons and evenings.  Our computer model (Future Trak) shows isolated showers around the 3:00pm hour. (Give or take an hour)

Future Trak (3pm)

Future Trak (3pm)

The spotty showers will be light and brief today.  So most of the day will be good.  High temps will rise to the mid-upper 70s.  Winds will be light and from the southeast.  With the warm and moderately humid air in place we’ll see a lot of pollen in the air.  (And on the cars).  I put the pollen forecast up to a 10 out of 10.  Pollen counts will be between 1,000-2,000 grains.  It stinks, but you have been warned.

This evening a wind-shift line will move through the area from north to south.  This will create a few scattered showers between 9pm and 1am.  These will probably fall apart as they roll through Hampton Roads.  Tomorrow we’ll see drier weather behind the wind-shift line.  This boundary will settle across North Carolina.   So I expect a good amount of sunshine over most of the region, but a stray shower could pop up there .  Highs will still be in the mid 70s.  Winds will be out of the north at 8-12mph.

We’ll be dry for most of Sunday.  Highs will still be in the 70s.  However, rain will move in by the evening.  Then rain is likely Sunday night into Monday.  Monday could be a washout.  At least it will wash-out some of the pollen.  There’s a silver lining for you.

On a more somber note…yesterday was the 4 year anniversary of the tornado outbreak in the region.  We has numerous tornadoes in the region as well as several deaths.   Here is a link to more information from the National Weather Service in Wakefield: 2011 Tornadoes.  A meteorologist in Charlotte also has a nice blog about the tornadoes over the rest of North Carolina.  It has a little more information and the science behind the outbreak. 2011 Tornado blog. It was a rough month for the whole country. This was actually a smaller outbreak (relatively speaking) with an even larger one happening towards the end of April.  The outbreaks caused hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars in damage.  It was a scary time.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


No Big Systems

April 16th, 2015 at 7:32 am by under Weather

There is an area of high pressure to our north, but really there are no big weather systems in our region today.  Therefore, I will stop this Blog right now and take a nap……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

 

Ok. I guess I’ll add a little more detail.  The nap can wait.   Recently we’ve had a lot of rain showers to our west, but they have been very limited as they’ve moved east.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

High pressure has been sliding east through the northeast states, but it has not moved down here.  Meanwhile moisture has moved back into central Virginia/North Carolina.  So our forecast is pretty quiet today.  We’ll see lots of clouds with an isolated shower possible.  Most of the rain should stay to our west.  Surface winds will be out of the northeast at 10-15mph.  So it will be cooler near the shore.  Highs will be in the 60s near the water and in most of the metro, but it will be in the 70s as you go just a little bit inland.

Tomorrow we’ll see a lot of the same except there will be a little more sunshine. This will allow the whole area to warm up to the 70s.  We’ll also lose the northeast wind.

Luckily the weekend forecast has dried up.  At this time both Saturday and Sunday look dry.  Now the rain looks to hold off until Sunday night.  With highs in the 70s, it is looking pretty good.  There will be a lot of rain in the region from Sunday night into Monday.  There will probably be some thunderstorms as well.

Ok.  Now on to my nap.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


The Rain Is Gone…Well Mostly.

April 15th, 2015 at 9:03 am by under Weather

As expected we saw some downpours yesterday evening.  Here was the view around 5pm Tuesday.

Radar (5pm Tue)

Radar (5pm Tue)

There were a few reports of street flooding over the Southside.  Mostly in Norfolk.  Here was one photo that was posted on our facebook page yesterday from Frizzell Ave:

Street Flooding In Norfolk

Street Flooding In Norfolk

The rain really added up in the rain bucket there.  Norfolk International Airport picked up 1.80″.

Rain Totals

Rain Totals

This brings the monthly total to 2.07″ which is 0.46″ above average.  It brings the rain totals up to 10.94″ for the year which is 0.87″ below average.  However, I like to remind folks that we had a significant amount of snow which likely added to the actual ground water for the year.

A cold front was the main focus for the rain yesterday.  The front is stalling out to our south today.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We had scattered sprinkles and light showers through the early morning, but they have since dried up.  High pressure is sliding east through Pennsylvania, but it is not sliding in our direction.  Notice that there is rain building to our southwest.  Most of that rain will stay away from our region.  However, a few models bring some of those showers into Hampton Roads late in the day.  So I’m calling for an isolated shower later this afternoon into the early evening.  Not much.  Regardless we will see the clouds increase again during that time.  The clouds and the north/northeast breeze will keep highs in the low/mid 60s.  The wind will blow at 10-20mph near the shore and 8-12mph inland.

Tonight we’ll hold on to the clouds, but there shouldn’t be any rain.  Maybe a few sprinkles.  Tomorrow we’ll see a somewhat similar setup.  So there will be scattered showers to our southwest with some isolated showers in Hampton Roads.  Here is what Future Trak shows by 3pm:

Future Trak (3pm Thu)

Future Trak (3pm Thu)

Keep in mind that I look at several computer models daily.  A couple of those models have quite a bit of the rain making it into Hampton Roads.  So for now I’m splitting the difference.  Highs will be in the 60s.  A few of the showers will linger into Friday morning.  Then we’ll dry out Friday afternoon into Saturday.  Yep…Dry!  That’s a change from yesterday.  The rain keeps getting pushed back.  So for now there looks to be showers on Sunday.  If this trend keeps up, then maybe we’ll be able to push the rain all the way into Monday.  I hope so, because I have some outdoor activities for scouts this weekend.  So that would be great.

In International News… It looks like California is not the only area to have a bad drought recently.  Apparently there is also a bad drought in Taiwan.  They are normally a wet country.  So it’s interesting to see their long-term response.  Here is an article with more details: Taiwan drought.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Heavy Rain On The Way

April 14th, 2015 at 8:33 am by under Weather

The area of high pressure that brought us the nice weather yesterday is heading east.  Rain and humidity are moving in to take its place.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We did have some showers already this morning, but the heavier rain will move in later today.  A cold front to our north is steadily creeping into the region.   So far this has been a focus for heavy downpours, and it will do so in our region this afternoon/evening.  The morning commute was pretty good (in terms of weather), but the evening commute could be hampered by wet roads and lowered visibilities.  Here is the rain forecast from Future Trak at 5pm:

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

The area of heavy rain (orange/red areas) won’t be as widespread as it was in the deep south recently.    However, even light rain can slow down the Hampton Roads commutes.  So be ready for a possibly lengthy this evening.  A few thunderstorms are also possible, but the cloud cover and lack of upper level winds should keep the severe weather to our south.  Rain showers will taper off tonight.  A stray shower may linger into tomorrow morning, but then we’ll dry out.  Tomorrow there will be some rain close to the region, but it should stay just to our west.  Stay tuned in case the rain gets a little closer.  For now I only have a low chance for a shower.  Rain will add up over the next 24 hours.  We are looking at an inch for most cities.  There will be several cities that will get between 1-2″ of rain.

Forecast Rain Totals

Forecast Rain Totals

Our model does a good job, but remember the area of heaviest rain can move around a bit. Also remember the time says 8:00am, but that is up through 8:00am tomorrow morning.

Temperatures will be warm today.  We started in the 60s, we’ll top off in the mid 70s with a few upper 70s.  It will be very warm and muggy.  Behind the front tomorrow we’ll see highs in the low 60s with a few upper 50s north of the metro.  It will be cooler with a north breeze at 10-20mph.

There will be another chance for rain on Thursday and early Friday.  This will be from some moisture and warmer temperatures returning.  The forecast for the weekend is tricky.  The models haven’t come into agreement on when the rain is going to move through.  So we’ll have to wait a day or two to let them settle out.  Basically though there are several weak systems which will move through the region over the next few days.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


I’m Back! Now The Forecast…

April 13th, 2015 at 9:14 am by under Weather

After a week off with the kids, I am back.  It was Spring Break last week, and I was home most of the time.  I got to work on some small projects around the house.  Then on Friday we went out to Luray Caverns and a Safari Zoo in western Virginia.  It was a good time.  Here are two photos of our trip.

Buffalo During Safari

Buffalo During Safari

In the safari area you actually get to drive out amongst the animals.  This was right outside my vehicle.  I actually didn’t get a close shot, but they do come right up to you and eat from a food bucket in your window.  It’s exciting, but can be a little unnerving at times.  Also there are many cave systems in western Virginia.  Again this was in Luray:

Cavern Wide Shot

Cavern Wide Shot

Now that I’m back we, are looking at some nice weather today.  High pressure is in control.  So we’ll see lots of sunshine and highs in the mid 70s.  Winds will be southeast at 5-10mph.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Notice though that there is some wet weather to our west.  In fact they could be looking at some flooding over parts of the deep south today.  That system will move east through tomorrow.  Moisture will increase in our region.  We may see a stray shower or two tonight, but rain chances will really increase through the day tomorrow.  Highs will be in the upper 60s as a cold front moves-in and stalls-out in the region.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

A weak area of low pressure will move along the front.  This will enhance the chance for rain in the late afternoon/early evening.  With the cooler temperatures around, I don’t think we’ll see any severe weather, but we will have to see how far south the front gets before stalling.  If it stalls a little farther north, then that threat could be raised over North Carolina.  In the meantime, here is what Future Trak shows for the rain tomorrow evening:

Future Trak (Tuesday Evening)

Future Trak (Tuesday Evening)

Rain will continue through the evening, but should end overnight.  Rain will impact the evening commute tomorrow.  It could really slow things down.  It will add up in the rain bucket too.  At this time, Future Trak forecasts for 1-2″ of rain in the area.

Rain Totals forecast

Rain Totals forecast

This could lead to some localized flooding.  So stay tuned for updates.  We’ll dry out on Wednesday, but temps will run a little cool for mid April. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.  The average high is 67.  Then we’ll warm up on Thursday, but a few showers will try to move back in.  More rain is possible on Friday.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


The Pattern Changes

April 3rd, 2015 at 7:19 am by under Weather

Finally! Our long-term weather pattern is changing.  Instead of a huge dip in the jetsream and cold temperatures over the eastern U.S., we now have a flatter/warmer pattern.  Today we’ll warm up nicely.  Highs are going to hit near 80 degrees.  High pressure is in control, but there is a stationary front to our north.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

This setup will do several things for our weather.  With the high offshore and the front to the north there will be some strong southwest winds between them today.  Remember pressure is typically lower along a front.  So there is a difference in the pressure over us today.  So the winds will run at 10-20mph out of the southwest with gusts up to 30mph.  Small craft advisories will be in effect for boaters.  Also, there will be quite a bit of rain showers along the front moving to the east.  As they move into the high, most of them should fall apart.  However, a couple of spotty showers may survive into our viewing area. So there are low-end rain chances for us today. I’d say about 20-25%.  By the evening the front will become a cold front and head towards Hampton Roads.  It won’t get here until very late tonight/early tomorrow morning.  This will increase the rain chances a bit.  Then tomorrow morning as the front swings through, we’ll see some scattered showers.  They should taper off by the late morning.  Temps will not drop much tonight due to the front timing.  Then tomorrow the winds will turn out of the northwest.  So temps will pretty much hold in the low 60s.  We will dry out in the afternoon.

Easter is still looking good.  We’ll see temps in the 40s in the morning and sunshine.  Should be good for Easter egg hunts and services.  Then the afternoon will be sunny with highs in the mid 60s.  We’ll see the warmer pattern continue into next week. Highs will be in the 70s for many days.  There will be some rain around next Wednesday/Thursday.

Have a good weekend.  Enjoy the warmer weather.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Frosty Morning, Then A Quick Warmup!

April 2nd, 2015 at 7:47 am by under Weather

This morning was rather cold for early April.  The winds went calm last night.  Plus we had clear skies in the region.  This let the temperatures fall to the low 30s in several cities.

Temps This Morning

Temps This Morning

We have some very dry air in place today. Dew points are in the low 30s.  Maybe even a few upper 20s.  That is bone-dry for this time of year!

Regional Dew Points

Regional Dew Points

Winds will pick up out of the south today.  High pressure is centered offshore, but will be close enough to produce a lot of sunshine.  A warm front was approaching from the west.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

All of these ingredients will help to create rapid warming today.  It will be very similar to Tuesday’s weather.  Temps will rise into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees this afternoon. Dress in layers.  We won’t cool down too much tonight.  Winds will stay up out of the south and dew points will rise a bit.  So lows will be in the 50s.  Tomorrow we’ll leap frog from the morning temps up to 80 degrees for a high.  We’ll see partly cloudy skies.  Rain should hold off until the evening.  Winds will be very strong out of the south/southwest.  They will run at 15-25mph with gusts up to 30mph.  This will also aid in the warming.

A cold front will move through the area Friday night.  This will bring some scattered showers into Hampton Roads.  The rain will continue into Saturday morning, but it should clear out by the afternoon. Highs will be near 60 on Saturday.   We are still looking good for Easter Sunday.  Lows will be near 40.  Highs will be in the low 60s with sunshine.

Before I go…You’ve probably heard about the update in California about the recent drought.  The governor has issued mandatory restrictions on water usage across the state.  This is historic.  Here is an article with more information on the subject: California Drought And Water Restrictions.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 


It’s HOT out! APRIL FOOLS!

April 1st, 2015 at 7:46 am by under Weather

Yesterday was great.  We had a lot of sunshine with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.  I did the annual first cutting of the grass during the afternoon.  It was awesome!  The weather…not the grass.  A little breezy, but nice.  Last night a cold front swiped through the area.  This brought a couple of quick/spotty showers.  They moved out as fast as they moved in.  It probably didn’t even add up to a tenth of an inch.  So by this morning they were well south of the area along with the cold front.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

So we’ll be cooler today with highs in the mid 50s.  Winds will be breezy out of the north at 10-20mph.  They may let up a little this afternoon.  Some inland locations will likely rise to near 60 degrees.  Tomorrow the high pressure system swings offshore, a warm front will lift through the region, and winds will turn out of the south.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

High temps will be in the upper 60s to near 70.  The nice weather will resume.  By Friday temps will keep rising.  We’ll get into the upper 70s.  Clouds will build on Friday, but the rain should hold off until the evening.  Scattered showers will move in by Friday night and will continue into Saturday morning.  High temps will drop to near 60 on Saturday.  Luckily on Sunday we’ll see a lot of sunshine. Highs will be in the low 60s.   It will be a little cool in the morning for services and Easter egg hunts (low/mid 40s),  but it shouldn’t be anything that a light jacket won’t fix.

The pollen is worse today.  I’m really starting to feel it now.  The allergy medicines are increasing along with the pollen.  It should be in full force by the weekend into next week.  The pollen really starts to collect when the pine trees let it go.  For now some of the lighter pollen will start to collect.  The yellow cars will start to show up over the next couple of weeks.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Could It Be? Warm & Dry At The Same Time?

March 31st, 2015 at 8:15 am by under Weather

Yep!  Warm and dry on the same day.  How bout that? We haven’t had too much of that lately.  This morning it was sunny, but it was also pretty chilly.  Here was the view from our tower cam in Virginia Beach:

Tower Cam

Tower Cam

Temps managed to drop to the low/mid 30s inland with upper 30s elsewhere.  This time of year, when you have a lot of dry air,  you can really warm up the temps during the afternoons; and you can cool them down quite a bit at night.  Basically in very dry air the solar energy goes directly into heating the air.  Whereas in humid air more of the energy is used up to try and warm the air and the water vapor.  So today high pressure and dry air will provide for plenty of sunshine.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Southwest winds will pick up at 10-20mph.  This will also contribute to the rapid warming.  So highs will aim for the upper 60s to near 70.  This will be a 30+ rise in temps compared to the morning lows.  We’ll stay dry through the whole day.  Many will probably take advantage and mow their lawns.  By 9pm tonight the cold front that currently is in the Midwest will drop into our region.  We’ll see some spotty showers, but it shouldn’t add up to much.  It should only be a tenth of an inch at most.  That’s good news because a lot of farmer fields and sports fields need to dry out.  I’ve heard many games and practices have been cancelled over the past month due to the weather and the wet fields.  Oddly enough…I looked up the latest rainfall totals.  Norfolk International Airport has had 3.57″ of rain this month.  That is actually 0.88″ below average.  Plus we are down 1.22″ for the year.  That is shocking, but…Keep in mind that we had a surplus when you factor in the snow from February.  Plus, there has been a lot of days with rain, but there weren’t too many days where the rain was heavy.

Tomorrow we will be dry, but quite a bit cooler. Highs will be in the low/mid 50s.  Temps may even be cooler near the shore.  Winds will be out of the north at about 10-20mph.  Then by Thursday we’ll already warm up again. Highs will be back in the upper 60s.  By Friday we’ll warm up even more.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 70s.  However, some rain showers will move in late Friday into Saturday.  We are still looking dry for Easter Sunday.  After a cool morning temps will warm to near 60 in the afternoon.

By the way…the pollen is up today.  It is about an 7 or 8 out of 10.  It’s starting to affect me a little.  I just put in some allergy eye drops.  When it gets pretty bad, then I’ll do my annual how to beat the pollen blog.  Probably in the next couple of weeks.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


Increasing Temps…Increasing Pollen

March 30th, 2015 at 9:33 am by under Weather

I think a lot of folks want to put this last weekend’s weather behind us.  I was out at a yard sale Saturday morning, and it was raw outside.  Windy, cold….There were snow flurries.  At least the sun came out yesterday and the winds finally died down in the afternoon.  However, we are looking at a nice warmup this week.  It all starts today.   We had a nice southwest wind overnight.  This allowed temps to warm a bit last night.  So we started the morning in the low/mid 40s. We also had some clouds move in which helped.  The scattered showers picked up in the region ahead of a cool front.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Today the front is more like a wind-shift line than a cold front.  The temps aren’t much cooler to the north of it.  Winds are southwest this morning.  As the boundary comes through the winds will shift more out of the west.  They will run at 10-20mph.  So these winds will allow temps to rise to the upper 50s to near 60 this afternoon.  The rain will be here through the morning and midday, but then it should move out.

Future Trak (Noon today)

Future Trak (Noon today)

We should see some partial clearing in the afternoon. That should also add to the warming.  However, the models do hint at a few sprinkles this evening around 5pm.  all-in-all we are only looking at a couple tenths of an inch of rain.

Tonight we’ll clear out.  Lows will drop to the low 40s.  Tomorrow….ahhhh tomorrow… We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 5-15mph.  Now there is another cold front (a real one this time) coming in Tuesday night.  This may prompt a quick shower, but it shouldn’t be much.  Then we’ll cool down on Wednesday. Highs will be in the low/mid 50s.  We’ll already warm back up on Thursday to the upper 60s.  Skies will be partly cloudy.  On Friday we’ll see highs in the 70s, but scattered showers will move in as well.  Rain is expected on Saturday, but we’ll dry out for Easter Sunday. Highs will be in the 60s on Saturday and mid 50s on Sunday.

So far the pollen hasn’t been too bad.  I did notice last Friday though that as the rain came down there was some pollen mixing in with it on the vehicles. Then we had the cold blast this weekend, and I think the trees paused.  The pollen has had a slightly slower start this year as the temps have been unseasonably cool/cold.  However, this upcoming week the trees will bud and bloom.  I believe they are poised to let the pollen go. Today the pollen is a 6 out of 10.  Mold has probably been a problem for some folks as the rain and cool temperatures have led to a favorable environment.  I’m not a botanist, but this is based off of things that I’ve observed and studied over the years.  Here is a site with more information on how trees pollinate.  Tree pollen.   (WARNING: It has some material that may not be suitable for little kids as it talks about the birds and the bees….and the trees.) I assure you though it is scientific in nature.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler