After a chilly start this morning we are looking at a fantastic forecast today.  Highs will be in the mid 60s.  Sunshine the whole way through.  Then tomorrow highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.  A great weekend for a change. 

 Ida has strengthened a little more. 

The latest winds were at 60mph.  The pressure is at 997mb.  More strengthening is forecast in the next 2 days.  Eventually Ida will become extratropical.  It will become broader and will interact with some cooler air.  The upper level winds will increase.  While this will increase the wind shear, that actually may not weaken the storm in this case.  As it becomes extratropical it may actually use these upper level winds to maintain its intensity.  Mid-latitude storms (non-tropical storms) do use the upper level winds as part of their energy source.  Plus, the pressure gradient between Ida and the high to the north could create a broad area of strong surface winds along the Gulf coast.  It will be interesting to watch.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Frost advisories have been issued for Virginia Beach, Currituck county, N.C., and Northampton County, VA.  (update: Portsmouth and Norfolk are included in the advisory). Freeze warnings are up everywhere else.  Bring in the sensitive pets and plants.  I used to have a dog in Illinois when I was young.  It was a beagle that lived outside in a dog house.  Even for most of the Winter.  That was pretty common where I lived.  That dog used to be fine in weather that we call cold here, but there were of course times that we had to bring him inside.  You probably won’t need to drip the faucets unless you have pipes that are exposed to the elements or near some thin walls.  Temperatures should only drop below the freezing mark for a couple of hours.  Plants, however, will be in trouble as the freeze will kill even the mightiest of pansies. 

  I won’t talk too much about Ida, but for now it is a strong tropical depression.  It will probably become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours as it has moved back over water.  It still has the potential to move towards Florida.  We’ll update more on that tomorrow.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Ida is over land and has been weakening.  It is a tropical storm now with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.  It was briefly a hurricane before making landfall this morning over eastern Nicaragua.  The storm is expected to keep moving on a general northward motion.  If it survives and goes back over water, then it may restrengthen.  The latest track from the National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov shows that Ida could thread the needle and pass between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba.  There is plenty of warm ocean water for the storm to feed off of, but the wind shear will be moderate.  The forecast will likely undergo some changes over the next 24 hours.  As Jon Cash mentioned in the previous blog, it’s even possible that we could even get some rain from the remnants of Ida.  That’s possible, but not likely.

  Locally, we have an offshore non-tropical low that is actually far away.  However, the low is expected to strengthen and increase our winds out of the North/Northwest.  (mostly over the water).  Winds near the shore may gust to over 30mph tonight into early tomorrow.  Then, the winds will die off Friday night.  That’s when the bottom drops out and temperatures area wide will drop to the 30s.  We’ll probably see widespread frost and a possible inland freeze. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Ok…you’re right… all the doomsdayers out there kept saying:  “Something could still happen this hurricane season”.  “It’s not over”…  And so Ida was born this afternoon to prove that you can never count out mother nature too early.  This image is from the National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov .  Ida is a healthy tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.  The storm is expected to move northwest and affect Central America with some gusty winds and heavy rain.  Flooding and mudslides are the main threat from Ida.  If it survives and goes back over water, then it could reintensify before moving towards the Yucatan Peninsula.  It may shake things up a little down that way, but it has no bearing on our forecast. 

  Our local forecast is actually chilly.  Tomorrow we’ll see mid 60s (not too bad), but on Friday winds will be NNE at 15-25mph with higher gusts.  Temperatures will be in the low-mid 50s.  Futuretrak temps are even forecasting upper 40s at Norfolk Friday afternoon.  That may be a little too cold, but it will be a chilly November day. 

Finally, (just for fun) remember last year that we had snow in November.  Here’s the blog from last November about the event: http://blogs.wavy.com/2008/11/21/snow-in-november/ 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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Things should be good for the trick-or-treaters this evening.  We may see a sprinkle inland during the evening, but overall it will be mostly cloudy and mild.  Sunset is at 6:09 pm.  Before the evening we’ll see very warm temperatures and a very nice day.  Highs will be in the lower 80s.  The record is 84 at Norfolk and Elizabeth City.  We may tie that in Elizabeth City, but we probably won’t reach it at Norfolk International. 

After today the bottom drops out.  Highs tomorrow will be near 60.  Temperatures will probably fall to the 50s in the afternoon.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s for the next few days.  You may want to winterize your home a little earlier this year.  I’ve already put up plastic over the drafty windows in my home.  I cover the vents that go to the crawl space so that the cold air doesn’t flow in so freely.  I think it helps.  It’s not air-tight, but the flow isn’t so strong.  This helps the insulation that is down there.  Happy Halloween and don’t forget to turn the clocks back tonight.  Also change the batteries in your smoke detectors.  Be safe everyone. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Warm Temps, Clouds, Dogs in Vans?  This photo was sent in from Stephanie in Poquoson.  Xena (shown here) was in the annual Bow Wow Pet Parade which benefits Hampton’s Humane Society.  I’ve never dressed up my dog for Halloween, but I have given her a bone for Christmas.  By the way, never give dogs chocolate.  It’s not good for them. 

  Ok, so what’s the Halloween forecast?  Well… we will have partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be breezy out of the south.  High temps for the day will be in the upper 70s to near 80, but temperatures will drop to the lower 70s by trick-or-treat time.  Sunset will be at 6:09pm.   Rain is expected to move in after midnight.  Hopefully it doesn’t come in early.  There is a good chance for rain on Sunday though as the next cold front flips in here from the west. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

The forecast has been variable to say the least.  The 7 day has been constantly changing.  This is due to some big and unseasonable cold air masses that have been swinging through the country like Tarzan on caffeine.  It’s hard for the computer models to handle these features.  This weather pattern isn’t expected to change any time soon.  Today we warmed up into the mid/upper 70s.  Tomorrow we’ll see northeast flow return.  Highs will be in the 60s Thursday and Friday.  The warmup now comes on Saturday where highs will be in the upper 70s.  (80s inland?)  So things are looking good for Halloween.  Fair and mild during the evening.  I’ll try to provide a little more detail tomorrow or Friday in another blog. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Yesterday we did hit 83 degrees at Norfolk International.  It was a nice day out for most of the area.  The showers came in during the evening between 7:30 and 10pm.  Here’s the estimated rainfall from Super Doppler 10:

We had a pretty good strip of rain start up over Newport News and North Suffolk.  It made it to Norfolk where the airport picked up 0.20″ of rain.  Then it dried out over Virginia Beach.  Look at Wanchese/Manteo.  A viewer emailed in that they got almost 2″ of rain down there yesterday around 5:00pm.  The storms didn’t materialize thankfully, but some areas got a quick downpour.  Today we started with temperatures in the upper 50s.  Highs though will only top out in the low/mid 60s.  The clouds should thin out this afternoon, but the winds will be northerly at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph near the shore.  Small craft advisories are up for the boaters on the ocean and the bay. 

  We’ll warm up by mid week with highs in the 70s.  We’ll probably see some 80s on Thursday with a cool down for Halloween. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Ok, I know warmy is not a real word…but it could be someday.  (Cheesy grin)

Today we will really warm up.  We hit 81 degrees yesterday at Norfolk International.  Today we’ll be in the low 80s again.  We will have a lot of cloud cover, but the sun will peak through.  We’ll feel strong southerly winds with gusts up to 30mph.  The Storm Prediction Center does have us under a slight risk for severe weather.  The clouds should limit instability somewhat, but the wind shear is pretty strong.  Remember wind shear is the strong increase in winds with height.  This limits hurricane formation, but it aids thunderstorm formation over land.  0-6km wind shear (low-mid level) will be about 50-60 knots.  40 is about the threshold for severe.  So we’ll be on the lookout later today.  The front won’t move through until later this evening though.  So the bulk of the storms are expected more towards the dinner hour and sunset.  The 6z raw NAM (model text) doesn’t spit out precipitation until overnight tonight, but our Future Trak computer model shows scattered showers and storms by this mid-afternoon.

Tomorrow we’ll drop the high temperature by about 20 degrees.  Look at the temperature trend.  The average high is 67 degrees (white horizontal line):

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Hello fellow earthlings!  Wow! Check out this sunset.  This was a beautiful shot from our tower cam in Portsmouth Thursday evening.  Great colors.  Today we got up to 77 degrees.  A few inland areas hit 80.  It was nice and warm.  The average high is 67 degrees.  We’ll stay mild through Saturday.  Saturday we will be warm with highs near 80.  We’ll also see some scattered showers and T’storms with another cold front moving in Saturday evening.  We’ll cool down and clear out on Sunday.  Should be nice with highs near 70.  Transmission out….

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler