The National Hurricane Center is still keeping Tropical Storm Cristobal on a northerly track. The 5pm Update states that:
Storm Moving NNE at 5mph
Going to stay offshore of the USA for its entire track.
Credit: NASA GOES 13 Satellite
Dangerous rip currents will exist tomorrow with waves around 3-5ft across the VB Oceanfront. Wave Heights will be similar for the OBX. For surfers, onshore winds will continue tomorrow which will keep waves choppy. Look at the full forecast:
Remember, with a large swell like this: “If in Doubt, Don’t Go Out” if you are new(er) to surfing or boogieboarding have your session with a buddy or a group of people and if you can near a life guard. Have Fun!
At 6:20 this morning the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression Four to Tropical Storm Cristobal. This storm has 45mph winds and is expected to get stronger over the coming week.
Cristobal in the Atlantic. Maria in the Pacific.
I took this snapshot of the two large storms on either side of North America. Look on the left, you can see Category 4 Hurricane Maria. The eye is also noticeable in the center of the storm. Cristobal isn’t a hurricane, but is expected to become one by Thursday.
The National Hurricane Center has the forecast cone just grazing by Cape Hatteras on the OBX. The important part of the storm will be that turn from north to northeast on Thursday. The sooner it happens, the less likely the storm will impact the OBX. I would expect the only weather the OBX will observe is bands of clouds with some rainfall on Thursday.
Our wind will be stronger today out of the northeast. We will see a breeze at 20mph with gusts over 30mph possible today through Tuesday. With that breeze our skies will remain rain free this week.
We will continue to track Cristobal this week, Tiffany Savona will have another update this evening.
The strong NE winds is going to push in a 3-4ft+ swell today. That could create head high peaks. Rip Currents will be along our beaches all day so beware of the dangers with the side and outgoing currents. Swim Near a lifeguard. The swell will keep up this first half of the week. The wind will die down on Wednesday which should mean cleaner waves. The tropical system will also push in new waves starting on Thursday. Stay tuned.
The three objects will be spreading apart from our perspective over the next week, so if the sky is clear in the morning look for the objects. For today we will be seeing cloudy skies with a few scattered showers possible.
Light Rain Today
Wind speeds will be also strong from the northeast at 15-20mph by the afternoon. Gusts could be over 25mph. This wind is going to push in a new swell where we could see 3ft waves today and 4 ft waves tomorrow at the beach. That will mean a high threat for rip currents. Tomorrow, we will still see strong winds, but the skies will be clearer. Highs will be near 77 tomorrow.
As of now, the storm system near the Dominican Republic still has not formed into a depression or tropical storm. There is a high amount of shear in the environment which has been ripping apart the storm. Shear is a change in wind speed with height. The higher the shear, the less likely a hurricane can develop and survive.
The forecast models are still all over the place. The 6Z GFS has this storm making landfall near Miami, FL. The Euro still keeps it out to sea.
SAT AM Tracks. (GFS = Redline, Euro = Greenline)
Notice how all of the models have it closer to land? Look at the snapshot I took yesterday:
Forecast Tracks (From Friday’s Models)
There is a closer to USA trend happening, also the storm is slowing down. Keep an eye on it as it may be named Christobal either today or tomorrow.
By 9am this morning the clouds cleared out and we have been getting a nice dose of sunshine. That sunshine will warm us up to the upper-80s today. That will be one of the ingredients for thunderstorms this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe weather today. We have a chance to see damaging wind gusts and hail if strong storms develop this afternoon.
Future Trak @ 2pm
Tonight we will see more rain as cooler air moves in from the north. For the next several days, starting tomorrow we will see northeast winds. These winds will keep us cooler and eventually dry. By Sunday we will be dry with highs near 80 degrees. The extended forecast looks dry as high pressure builds in to keep Hampton Roads dry into Wednesday.
Tropical Wave near Puerto Rico
We will see this storm move towards the Bahamas into the weekend. The National Hurricane Center will be sending another plane into the storm this afternoon to gather more data. They expect it to become a tropical storm by this weekend. The tracks are still all over the place, but there is starting to be more of a trend. That trend moves it due north towards Bermuda. On Wednesday, the models do keep it offshore from Hampton Roads, but still close by. We could see strong winds (30-40mph) because of the storm for the OBX if it gets any closer. At this point it is still early to really tell what exactly is going on. We will keep an eye on it over the weekend.
We had one thunderstorm develop this morning near Edenton and Hertford. As we go into the midday hours we will see more sunshine with temperatures climbing to the upper-80s. There is a new storm system in the Midwest right now. That is expected to move closer to our area by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday.
Future Trak Friday @ 3pm
The rain should begin after 2-3pm tomorrow. The storm system will move offshore Saturday and Sunday which will push in a strong northeast wind. That breeze will push in a new swell of waves for the VB Oceanfront and the OBX. That is good news for the ECSC where waves have been small all week.
Chest High + Waves may move in on Sunday. That will also mean we will see a high threat for rip currents this weekend.One of the issues will be the wind. That onshore breeze will keep the choppy conditions at the oceanfront.
I am still watching a storm system in the Atlantic, as of now it still is disorganized, but is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours.
Past this weekend, there is still low confidence in the models. The trend has it moving towards Bermuda and staying out to sea. Remember yesterday the tracks had it near the Gulf of Mexico. I will continue to watch this storm over the next few days.
A weak boundary is over Hampton Roads which brought the clouds and sprinkles this morning. It is part of a larger storm complex that is in the Midwest.
Weather Surface Map
That area of low pressure will be closer to our area tomorrow. That may help to bring in a few PM storms tomorrow. Thunderstorms are also likely on Tuesday. Over this upcoming week our temperatures will be near the 90 degree mark in the afternoon.
The area of energy we were watching near the Cape Verde islands has weakened and does not look likely to develop over the next 24 hours.
With the lack of an offshore hurricane this year the ECSC competition will be starving for waves during the first half of this week.
Wave Heights Monday @ Noon
Wave Heights This Week
I was hoping that Mon/Tues storm system could have brought in a windswell, but it looks like we’ll stay with waves at 1-2ft at best through Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday an offshore low may bring in a NE swell that could bring in some fun waves for the end of the week and possibly lingering in to the weekend.
I will keep an eye on the models regarding the swell and have another update later this week.
The heat and humidity will be making a return to our area this weekend. This morning the humidity was 91% with a dewpoint of 71 degrees. We should see seasonable highs with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. With the excess humidity, a few popup showers will develop this afternoon. I am expecting the first areas of rain to develop around 2pm-3pm.
Future Trak @ 5pm
The rain will be most likely this afternoon from 3pm-6pm. The showers should then begin to dissipate around sunset. Overnight, we will be dry with partly cloudy skies and lows in the 60s. High pressure returns tomorrow which will keep us dry, but highs will be in the 90s.
The tropics still look quiet now, but we could see a new storm system develop in the next week.
Long Range Tracks
From now until Friday, we could see a new storm system develop off of the western coast of Africa. Long range models like the GFS and Euro have this storm moving towards North America after next weekend. These models keep the storm weak as of now, but we will continue to monitor this over the coming days.
A small swell appeared in the water this morning around low tide. For the majority of the day waves will remain flat. Tomorrow, no new swell is expected to develop. The ECSC starts up tomorrow:
Throughout the week we will continue our partnership with Surfline.com and have updates on any new swells for the competition. Forecaster Kurt Korte wrote a full blog about what he thinks what will happen. ECSC Forecast
This morning we woke up to a few showers across NE N.C., but across Virginia we had this view:
There has been a nice flow of dry air from the northeast for the past few days, that flow will continue today and tomorrow. It will keep us mostly dry across Hampton Roads.
Future Trak @ 3pm
As we warm up this afternoon, a popup shower may develop across Hampton Roads and areas to the north. I wouldn’t expect widespread showers, but more of a quick downpour. Highs will be near 80 today thanks to the sunshine and clouds. The ENE wind will keep places near the water in the 70s today.Tomorrow we will see passing clouds and sunshine. Highs should be near 78 tomorrow. I am thinking our next chance of widespread rain won’t come until Tuesday.
Our waves will be flat today from the lack of any swell in the region. We will see Easterly winds get stronger late tomorrow and Monday. That could bring in 2-4ft waves in by Tuesday. There may be a small window in the afternoon when the waves clean up.
The 5pm update just came in from the National Hurricane Center and Bertha remains a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75mph. Wind speeds have decreased a little bit as the hurricane looks a little bit more disorganized on satellite imagery. The Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Bertha to see if winds have decreased even more. Bertha is going to pass between the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda. Check out the latest track below.
Hurricane Bertha’s Track
Bertha should begin to weaken late Tuesday and Wednesday as it runs into cooler waters and increasing wind shear. Bertha will remain offshore but will still bring us higher waves and a high threat for rip currents Tuesday and Wednesday.
Meteorologist Tiffany Savona
The track of this storm is perfect for a nice swell of waves for us across Virginia Beach and the OBX. Having a storm thread the needle between Bermuda and the USA should bring in some fun waves starting tomorrow. Lets talk about the swell; it will begin to arrive tomorrow afternoon with wave heights around 4-6ft for Hatteras and 3-5 for Kill Devil Hills/Nags Head. VB (including Croatan and Sandbridge) will see 2-4ft waves in the afternoon and evening. Our wind speeds should be Easterly at 5-10mph on Tuesday.
Wave Heights Wednesday
The surf could be fun tomorrow afternoon evening. Keep an eye on your favorite surf cam! On Wednesday, you may want to plan on some fun sets in the morning. We will likely see 3-4ft+ waves (Shoulder-High) for VB in the morning and around 3ft in the afternoon. For the OBX, you will see 3-5ft waves (Head) in the morning and 3-4ft in the afternoon. Our winds will be offshore on Wednesday (West 5-10mph).
Remember, the threats for rip currents will be high starting tomorrow and Wednesday, swim near a lifeguard and be careful if you want to swim.
We will see more rainfall today, the pattern has hardly changed from yesterday. For today we will again see 1-2″ of rainfall in NE N. Carolina, The Southside Hampton Roads cities and the Eastern Shore.
Yesterday, another 0.98″ of rain fell in Norfolk which brings the official total for the year to 30.8″ (4.01″ above normal) Other cites across our area picked up between 0.5″ and 1″ of rain. We will see more rain move in this morning and also continue to be off an on this afternoon.
Tropical Storm Bertha continues to impact the Dominican Republic this morning bringing high surf, heavy rain, and gusty winds. In case you didn’t know there are several islands in the Caribbean which are experiencing drought conditions, so in a way, the rainfall from Bertha will help them out. Now lets talk about the track; The National Hurricane Center still has Bertha going up along the coast.
Bertha may still develop into a Cat. 1 Hurricane on Wednesday morning, just offshore of the USA. Some recent computer models do have a weak area of low pressure forming along it that could help to enhance the rain that this storm can produce. If that happens, we could see a track closer to us. That would mean more rain on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Also, possibly higher winds with speeds around 20mph. We will continue to monitor the storm over the next few days.
The 2-3ft swell we had yesterday morning faded away for this morning. Wave heights will be 1-2ft today with a low threat for rip currents. The swell from Bertha is expected to arrive sometime on Tuesday.
For the OBX, conditions should be fun on Tuesday afternoon if this storm can stay offshore and keep the winds light. For Virginia Beach, the swell should push in Tuesday PM. I still believe Wednesday will be the best day, I expect Chest/Shoulder high sets for VB and the OBX on Wednesday morning and afternoon. This swell will fade quickly on Thursday. Get your boards ready!