Jeff Edmondson WAVY

Afternoon Showers & Then Cooler

September 13th, 2014 at 9:19 am by under Weather

We had about 1 hour of sunshine this morning before the clouds rolled in. We could see a few more peaks of sunshine before midday, but this afternoon I would count on clouds and rainfall possible.

Afternoon Showers and Thunder Likely

Afternoon Showers and Thunder Likely

Today we will see highs near 80 degrees. For college football fans wanting to support your team tonight, I would bet on rain during parts of the game.

Bring the Poncho

Bring the Poncho

Tomorrow, after the passage of the cold front, we will see temperatures in the lower 70s! That will be one of the coolest dry days we have had in awhile. It will feel like fall with a crisp breeze from the north at 10-15mph. Sunday we should be dry with partly cloudy skies.

Highs will remain in the 70s on Monday with mostly cloudy skies. More rain will come again on Tuesday.

Tropical  & Surf Update:

Tropical Storm Edouard remains as a strong Tropical Storm in the Central Atlantic. The latest update had this storm with 50mph winds.

Swell Coming Wednesday

Swell Coming Wednesday

This storm will stay offshore of the USA. Surfers; we will see a nice swell from this storm coming in Wednesday-Friday next week. This storm is likely going to make the same track that Hurricane Leslie did in 2012. If you remember that storm gave us 3-4ft waves at its peak. The only thing I am concerned about is a northeast wind developing locally which would prevent clean surf. Stay tuned for more updates.

Have a great weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Hot and Humid Today, Much Cooler Tomorrow

September 6th, 2014 at 8:48 am by under Weather

The heat is on again today with high temperatures climbing to the 90s this afternoon. We will see a mix of sunshine and clouds for most of the day. This afternoon, we may see a popup shower.

Popup Storms Possible Today

Popup Storms Possible Today

Starting at around 2pm, scattered showers will develop across North Carolina. These will be slow moving so anything that does develop can produce some heavy rainfall. A few of these showers may move across Hampton Roads as well. If you have outdoor plans, I’d keep them. Just remember to wear sunscreen and drink plenty of water. The heat index will be over 95 degrees this afternoon. Some bigger changes are coming up which means more rainfall for us.

Cooler Air Coming Tomorrow

Cooler Air Coming Tomorrow

We will see a big drop in temperatures tomorrow with the passage of that cold front near Ohio. That will mean highs will settle back in the 70s with a strong northeast wind developing. That NE wind may bring up the tides a bit by Tuesday. As the cold front passes us by it will stall out near Hatteras. A new area of low pressure will form along it which will keep us rainy Monday and Tuesday morning.

The tropics remain quiet for now with no new storms expected to develop over the weekend.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 


Dry For Labor Day Weekend

August 30th, 2014 at 8:43 am by under Weather

Our weather pattern is going to slowly change over the next three days. Starting today we will start to see a southeasterly wind. That breeze will bring back the humidity and heat. Highs will be near 86 degrees today with afternoon sunshine likely.

High Pressure In Control

High Pressure In Control

That area of high pressure is going to keep us with this southeast wind for the weekend. One thing that you will notice is going to be an increase in the humidity from the Atlantic Ocean. Also, do you see the line of thunderstorms and showers over Indiana through Missouri? That is part of a weak front that will move closer to us by Monday (Labor Day). By then high temperatures will climb back to the 90s and stay there for the majority of next week.

The tropics are going to remain quiet this weekend. That also means that the surf conditions will be smaller.

Surf Report

Surf Report

The risk for rip currents will be low today with 1-2ft waves at the Oceanfront. For the OBX, smaller waves will also be likely. We may see a new swell of waves move in late Sunday and Monday, but wave heights will still be mostly below 3ft.

Enjoy your Labor Day Weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Cristobal Monday Afternoon Update

August 25th, 2014 at 4:55 pm by under Weather

The National Hurricane Center is still keeping Tropical Storm Cristobal on a northerly track. The 5pm Update states that:

  • 60mph Winds
  • Storm Moving NNE at 5mph
  • Going to stay offshore of the USA for its entire track.
Credit: NASA GOES 13 Satellite

Credit: NASA GOES 13 Satellite

Latest Track

Latest Track

 

Surf Update:

Dangerous rip currents will exist tomorrow with waves around 3-5ft across the VB Oceanfront. Wave Heights will be similar for the OBX. For surfers, onshore winds will continue tomorrow which will keep waves choppy. Look at the full forecast:

Wave Forecast

Wave Forecast

Remember, with a large swell like this: “If in Doubt, Don’t Go Out” if you are new(er) to surfing or boogieboarding have your session with a buddy or a group of people and if you can near a life guard. Have Fun!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Tropical Storm Cristobal Develops

August 24th, 2014 at 8:55 am by under Weather

At 6:20 this morning the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression Four to Tropical Storm Cristobal. This storm has 45mph winds and is expected to get stronger over the coming week.

Christobal in the Atlantic. Maria in the Pacific.

Cristobal in the Atlantic. Maria in the Pacific.

I took this snapshot of the two large storms on either side of North America. Look on the left, you can see Category 4 Hurricane Maria. The eye is also noticeable in the center of the storm. Cristobal isn’t a hurricane, but is expected to become one by Thursday.

Tracking Cristobal

Tracking Cristobal

The National Hurricane Center has the forecast cone just grazing by Cape Hatteras on the OBX. The important part of the storm will be that turn from north to northeast on Thursday. The sooner it happens, the less likely the storm will impact the OBX. I would expect the only weather the OBX will observe is bands of clouds with some rainfall on Thursday.

Our wind will be stronger today out of the northeast. We will see a breeze at 20mph with gusts over 30mph possible today through Tuesday. With that breeze our skies will remain rain free this week.

We will continue to track Cristobal this week, Tiffany Savona will have another update this evening.

Surf Update:

The strong NE winds is going to push in a 3-4ft+ swell today. That could create head high peaks. Rip Currents will be along our beaches all day so beware of the dangers with the side and outgoing currents. Swim Near a lifeguard. The swell will keep up this first half of the week. The wind will die down on Wednesday which should mean cleaner waves. The tropical system will also push in new waves starting on Thursday. Stay tuned.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Some Rain Possible Today, Watching The Tropics

August 23rd, 2014 at 8:40 am by under Weather

What time did you wake up this morning? If you were up before sunrise and had clear skies you should have been able to see Jupiter and Venus in the eastern sky!

Venus (Lower Left) Jupiter (Upper Left), Moon (Right)

Venus (Lower Left) Jupiter (Faint, Upper Center), Moon (Right)

The three objects will be spreading apart from our perspective over the next week, so if the sky is clear in the morning look for the objects. For today we will be seeing cloudy skies with a few scattered showers possible.

Light Rain Today

Light Rain Today

Wind speeds will be also strong from the northeast at 15-20mph by the afternoon. Gusts could be over 25mph. This wind is going to push in a new swell where we could see 3ft waves today and 4 ft waves tomorrow at the beach. That will mean a high threat for rip currents. Tomorrow, we will still see strong winds, but the skies will be clearer. Highs will be near 77 tomorrow.

Tropical Update:

As of now, the storm system near the Dominican Republic still has not formed into a depression or tropical storm. There is a high amount of shear in the environment which has been ripping apart the storm. Shear is a change in wind speed with height. The higher the shear, the less likely a hurricane can develop and survive.

Shear Example

Shear Example

The forecast models are still all over the place. The 6Z GFS has this storm making landfall near Miami, FL. The Euro still keeps it out to sea.

SAT AM Tracks

SAT AM Tracks. (GFS = Redline, Euro = Greenline)

Notice how all of the models have it closer to land? Look at the snapshot I took yesterday:

Forecast Tracks (From Friday's Models)

Forecast Tracks (From Friday’s Models)

There is a closer to USA trend happening, also the storm is slowing down. Keep an eye on it as it may be named Christobal either today or tomorrow.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson


Showers and Storms Today; Watching the Tropics

August 22nd, 2014 at 9:53 am by under Weather

By 9am this morning the clouds cleared out and we have been getting a nice dose of sunshine. That sunshine will warm us up to the upper-80s today. That will be one of the ingredients for thunderstorms this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe weather today. We have a chance to see damaging wind gusts and hail if strong storms develop this afternoon.

Future Trak @ 2pm

Future Trak @ 2pm

Tonight we will see more rain as cooler air moves in from the north. For the next several days, starting tomorrow we will see northeast winds. These winds will keep us cooler and eventually dry. By Sunday we will be dry with highs near 80 degrees. The extended forecast looks dry as high pressure builds in to keep Hampton Roads dry into Wednesday.

Tropical Update:

Tropical Wave near Puerto Rico

Tropical Wave near Puerto Rico

We will see this storm move towards the Bahamas into the weekend. The National Hurricane Center will be sending another plane into the storm this afternoon to gather more data. They expect it to become a tropical storm by this weekend. The tracks are still all over the place, but there is starting to be more of a trend. That trend moves it due north towards Bermuda. On Wednesday, the models do keep it offshore from Hampton Roads, but still close by. We could see strong winds (30-40mph)  because of the storm for the OBX if it gets any closer. At this point it is still early to really tell what exactly is going on. We will keep an eye on it over the weekend.

-Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 


Rain Coming Tomorrow + A Tropical Update

August 21st, 2014 at 9:08 am by under Weather

We had one thunderstorm develop this morning near Edenton and Hertford. As we go into the midday hours we will see more sunshine with temperatures climbing to the upper-80s. There is a new storm system in the Midwest right now. That is expected to move closer to our area by tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday.

Future Trak Friday @ 3pm

Future Trak Friday @ 3pm

The rain should begin after 2-3pm tomorrow. The storm system will move offshore Saturday and Sunday which will push in a strong northeast wind. That breeze will push in a new swell of waves for the VB Oceanfront and the OBX. That is good news for the ECSC where waves have been small all week.

ECSC Forecast

ECSC Forecast

Chest High + Waves may move in on Sunday. That will also mean we will see a high threat for rip currents this weekend.One of the issues will be the wind. That onshore breeze will keep the choppy conditions at the oceanfront.

Tropical Update:

I am still watching a storm system in the Atlantic, as of now it still is disorganized, but is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours.

Forecast Tracks

Forecast Tracks

Past this weekend, there is still low confidence in the models. The trend has it moving towards Bermuda and staying out to sea. Remember yesterday the tracks had it near the Gulf of Mexico. I will continue to watch this storm over the next few days.


Quiet Weather Today, ECSC Wave Forecast

August 17th, 2014 at 9:02 am by under Weather

A weak boundary is over Hampton Roads which brought the clouds and sprinkles this morning. It is part of a larger storm complex that is in the Midwest.

Weather Surface Map

Weather Surface Map

That area of low pressure will be closer to our area tomorrow. That may help to bring in a few PM storms tomorrow. Thunderstorms are also likely on Tuesday. Over this upcoming week our temperatures will be near the 90 degree mark in the afternoon.

Tropical Update:

The area of energy we were watching near the Cape Verde islands has weakened and does not look likely to develop over the next 24 hours.

Surf/ECSC Update:

With the lack of an offshore hurricane this year the ECSC competition will be starving for waves during the first half of this week.

Wave Heights Monday @ Noon

Wave Heights Monday @ Noon

Wave Heights This Week

Wave Heights This Week

I was hoping that Mon/Tues storm system could have brought in a windswell, but it looks like we’ll stay with waves at 1-2ft at best through Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday an offshore low may bring in a NE swell that could bring in some fun waves for the end of the week and possibly lingering in to the weekend.

I will keep an eye on the models regarding the swell and have another update later this week.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 


Warm & Humid This Weekend

August 16th, 2014 at 9:17 am by under Weather

The heat and humidity will be making a return to our area this weekend. This morning the humidity was 91% with a dewpoint of 71 degrees. We should see seasonable highs with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. With the excess humidity, a few popup showers will develop this afternoon. I am expecting the first areas of rain to develop around 2pm-3pm.

Future Trak @ 5pm

Future Trak @ 5pm

The rain will be most likely this afternoon from 3pm-6pm. The showers should then begin to dissipate around sunset. Overnight, we will be dry with partly cloudy skies and lows in the 60s. High pressure returns tomorrow which will keep us dry, but highs will be in the 90s.

The tropics still look quiet now, but we could see a new storm system develop in the next week.

Long Range Tracks

Long Range Tracks

From now until Friday, we could see a new storm system develop off of the western coast of Africa. Long range models like the GFS and Euro have this storm moving towards North America after next weekend. These models keep the storm weak as of now, but we will continue to monitor this over the coming days.

Surf Update:

A small swell appeared in the water this morning around low tide. For the majority of the day waves will remain flat. Tomorrow, no new swell is expected to develop. The ECSC starts up tomorrow:

ECSC

ECSC

Throughout the week we will continue our partnership with Surfline.com and have updates on any new swells for the competition. Forecaster Kurt Korte wrote a full blog about what he thinks what will happen. ECSC Forecast

 

Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson