The forecast models have come into better agreement as to the snowfall for Monday night into Tuesday. As you’ll see, the models are not in complete agreement quite yet…but it is reasonable to expect that we will see accumulating snow into the region. Virginia’s Northern Neck and Accomack County on the Eastern Shore are likely to receive the most snow (possibly 5″ in northern Accomack). Areas along the western and southern shores of the Chesapeake Bay are likely to receive 1″ to 3″ of snow. We’ll be able to fine-tune this a bit better as the storm draws closer tomorrow. As I mentioned yesterday, this is not likely to be “the big one”, but there is likely to be enough snow to affect traffic and may close businesses and schools.
Yesterday, the EURO model was predicting huge amounts of snow for the Eastern Shore (7″-9″!) and more significant amounts for the Hampton Roads cities, too. In my blog post yesterday, I had pointed out that the EURO was an outlier–predicting too much snow–and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Well, today the EURO backed off considerably for our part of the world. Here are two screen-grabs of the EURO…one fairly local and another for the Northeast U.S.:
You will note that the New York and Boston areas are just gonna’ get hammered with snow (24″+).
Here’s a look at the GFS model on a regional, then East Coast scale:
You will note that the GFS has a greater concentration of snow for areas west of I-95 and on into the Charlottesville area. It also has less snow for the Eastern Shore. The wider view shows Boston getting hit with heavier snow (18″-24″), but New York getting around 8″ to 10″.
While the forecast models are not yet in total agreement, they do agree on a couple of things:
(a). We’ll see some accumulating snow.
(b). For the vast majority of us, the total accumulated snow will be a relatively small amount (dusting to 2″).
That’s still enough to “shut us down”, though. Stay tuned!