Very quiet, slightly warmer weather for us into the weekend

Relatively quiet, but very unusually warm weather continues for the Vancouver Olympics. Mostly sunny skies should continue through the weekend. Those clear skies are both good and bad for snow conditions. During the daytime, sunshine tends to melt the snow (duh!). But nighttime clear skies tend to make those nights colder, re-freezing existing snow and allowing new snow to be artificially created for the next day’s events. Of course, temperatures vary hugely from near sea-level in Vancouver to the higher-elevation venues like Whistler.

The Canadian national weather service, Environment Canada, is a terrific site  to see the forecasts for all of the specific olympic venues. Of course, all the temperatures are in Celsius. To get the temperatures in fahrenheit, just click on the “°C” colored link…and it’ll automatically translate into fahrenheit.

I just did a quick check of some climatology statistics (oh, boy…that sounds interesting, eh?). And yes, the temperatures have been colder than usual. When you add up every temperature for every hour of a month, then divide that number by the number of hours in the month…you end up with the average temperature.

Still with me? Pretty easy, actually.

For December, the average temperature for the month was just slightly below normal (-.3°) when compared with all past Decembers.

January was definitely colder when compared with all past Januarys. We ended the month 2.3° below normal. When you add up every hourly temperature for the month of January (31 days x 24 hours=744 hours)…then divide that number by 744, we ended up with an average January temperature of 37.8°. The normal average temperature for January is 40.1° (coldest month of year). So, 40.1-37.8=2.3. Thus, the 2.3° below normal.

We’re slightly over halfway through February and so far, we’re 6.3° below normal. That’s significant. If it stays this cold, we could be on our way to a record cold month!

But we’ll see some snow in Virginia, too.

By Saturday noon, we’ll likely see anywhere from a dusting (north) to 1″ (south) across the Hampton Roads cities. Near the NC/VA border, we could see 1″-2″.

In NE North Carolina, expect 2″-3″ of snow by Saturday noon. There could be a few areas here & there with 4″ of snow (especially just north of the Albemarle Sound).

Travel problems are very, very likely for North Carolina for Saturday. For Virginia residents, travel problems are far less likely.

Snow should taper off, then end by around Saturday noon. Be sure to watch Jeremy Wheeler for the latest information on Saturday morning!

The latest snow threat should arrive in the region late Friday night into early Saturday morning. And so far, it doesn’t look like very much of a threat!

Currently, there’s an eastward-moving storm producing snow over Texas. That storm should continue to roll eastward producing snow over the Gulf Coast states. As the storm emerges off the Florida/Georgia coast, it should continue east-northeastward toward Bermuda. So instead of the usual scenario where a storm continues up the East Coast…this one should pass well to our south!

That means that the threat of snow is mainly for South Carolina and southern North Carolina. We could see a little snow sneak northward across the VA/NC border into the South Side cities. Snow totals for our viewers (& readers) in North Carolina should be around a dusting to half an inch. Temperatures remain cold (35) for Saturday, so whatever snow on the ground is likely to stay there.

A good deal of uncertainty remains on this one, but so far, this doesn’t look like it’ll be too big an event.

There’s still light snow over the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and parts of the Eastern Shore. Additional accumulations are likely to be light…on the order of 1/2″ to 1″. Flurries are still possible into the Hampton Roads cities during the mid-evening. Winds will drop off only slightly after dark, then drop off more significantly Thursday afternoon. Sound side tidal flooding to continue for the Outer Banks. Temperatures are obviously dropping. And roads that are wet or snow-covered are just as obviously going to re-freeze.

More later…

Update at 11:00pm: Snow has, for the most part, ended through the region. There are still a few flurries, but absolutely no further accumulation is expected. Snowfall amounts have been unremarkable, but the effects of that snow were remarkable (50 car pile-up!). Snowfall totals range from a dusting on the South Side, a dusting to 1″ on the Peninsula, 2″-3″ northward from Williamsburg through most of the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Eastern Shore. There have been some reports of 5″ in Richmond County on the Northern Neck.

While snowfall amounts have not been spectacular, the winds have continued to rage throughout the evening hours. The Eastern Shore has just been hammered with winds throughout Wednesday and into the evening. Gusts were in the 50-60 mph range! Winds should only slowly diminish through the night and during the day Thursday. Wind chills in the teens overnight!

With this storm winding down, we turn our attention to Saturday (sigh). This time, a storm is expected to pass well to our south…likely bringing some very light snow to the region Saturday morning. So far, it appears that the effects on our area should be fairly minimal, but stay tuned! It’s early. And as we say, significant uncertainty remains.

-Don

Scattered mostly light rain continues through the region as of this time. We could see rain get a little heavier between 8:00 & 9:00 PM. Rainfall could total as high as .50″ to .75″. Nothing too terribly heavy.

Update at 11:00 PM: Things are going along pretty well as planned. Moderate rain in the mi-evening has tapered off to scattered light rain and drizzle. We have seen a little snow and sleet mixed in with the rain, but no reports of accumulation. The rest of the forecast (as written earlier) is looking good.

For most of us, temperatures are likely to hold steady or even rise just a bit through midnight, so rain is not likely to change over to snow. However, there could be a little snow mixed in on the western and northern fringes (i.e., west of Suffolk & Wmsbg. And the Northern Neck). Little to no accumulation is expected overnight.

For Wednesday, we’ll see snow…but not much for most of us. As colder air is drawn in on strong westerly winds, light snow showers will develop by around dawn. Snow will continue off and on through the day. For the Hampton Roads cities, it won’t be much…a dusting at best. Northward toward Williamsburg, around an inch. For the Middle Peninsula eastward to about Melfa on the Eastern Shore, around 2″-3″. For the Northern Neck and into northern Accomack County, snowfall totals could be in the 3″-4″ and locally a bit higher.

By the time all of this is said and done, the cold winds are3 likely to be most memorable. They’ll increase into the 20 to 30 mph range on Wednesday morning…and not really die off until Friday morning! Wind chills are likely to be in the teens for the next couple of days.

Tidal flooding is not likely for the coastal or bayfront areas of Virginia. And even along the Outer Banks, we’re not looking for oceanfront tidal problems; we’re looking for that persistent west wind to produce Soundside tidal flooding.

More to come…

I’m taking just a few minutes before leaving the building for the night. I don’t expect anything too terribly substantial or threatening during the overnight hours. Bigger stuff arrives for Saturday…another long day ahead!

At this hour, widespread moderate rain continues to fall through the region. There are pockets of much heavier rain moving rapidly northeastward through NE North Carolina and through the South Side Cities. This steady moderate to heavy rain should taper off to scattered lighter rain showers by at least around 3:00 AM…if not before.

Wind has increased from the East at 15-25 mph…with occasional gusts to over 40 mph. The wind will generally continue through the overnight hours, but should drop off temporarily for a while near dawn.

Minor tidal flooding can be expected at the time of high tide overnight between 2:00 and 4:00 AM. Minor to even moderate tidal flooding can be expected from 2:00 to 4:00 PM, Saturday.

On Saturday morning, we’re likely to start the day well above freezing…even in the 40s to mid 50s in the Hampton Roads cities southward. As the storm moves off shore, we’re likely to see more of a northerly wind drop colder air our way by around noon (sooner north of Williamsburg). Temperatures will likely drop by 10 or 15 degrees within an hour or so. That colder air borne by strong northerly winds will also bring a return of snow into the region by around noon. Before it tapers off in the evening, expect a dusting in NE North Carolina, 1″-3″ across most of the Hampton Roads cities, 3″-4″ from around Denbigh in Newport News northward through Williamsburg, 4″-6″ for the Middle Peninsula and Accomack Cty. on the Eastern Shore…and by far the greatest amount for Virginia’s Northern Neck (6″-12″).

I mentioned the strong northerly winds for Saturday afternoon. By around 3:00 PM, we could see steady winds of 35-45 mph with gusts to near 60 near the Ocean and Bay! Remember that this will roughly coincide with the time of high tide, too! Winds should slowly taper off during the evening hours.

Whoa-kay. That’s it for now. Another Saturday, another big storm! Look for Jon Cash on WAVY News 10 at sunrise. Jeremy Wheeler will be along to help cover things through the late morning into the dinner hour. And of course, I’ll be on the job throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Whew!

Rain should taper off in the next hour or so. Then a big weather day Saturday!

-Don

This storm will likely be quite a bit different from last Saturday’s storm. Expect more of a rainy Nor’Easter…ending with some (mostly) minor amounts of snow Saturday afternoon and evening.

So far, it looks like we’ll see some light rain begin in the area from south to north during the afternoon hours. By the evening, rain becomes moderate to heavy. Winds also increase out of the East at 15-20 mph. There could be a mix of rain and snow farther north for Virginia’s northern Neck. That overnight heavy rain tapers off by around 4:00 AM Saturday. But we could see 1″-2″ (possibly 3″!) on already saturated soil.

Additionally, the wind is expected to increase out of the Northeast at 30 to 35 mph. That persistent wind is likely to bring up the tides to moderate flooding levels on Saturday afternoon.

Saturday during the daylight hours, we’ll see scattered light rain change over to snow pretty early (8:00-9:00 AM) for the Northern Neck. Then southward from there, light rain changes to snow at noontime or so in the Hampton Roads cities. Light rain doesn’t change over to light snow until sunset over northeast North Carolina.

Accumulations are likely to be fairly light over the Hampton Roads cities…from around .5″ up to around 2″. Greater amounts are likely from Williamsburg northward (2″-4″). Then amounts really pick up northwest of Virginia’s Northern Neck (the Washington area could see 20″!).

These amounts are highly subject to change. The computer forecast models tend to shift the bands of heaviest snow northward or southward slightly. The amounts listed above for Hampton Roads could be raised or lowered slightly. But chances are…the biggest snowfalls should remain to the north and northwest.

Stay tuned!

At this hour, there are still a few bands of  snow showers out there and will continue to drop southeastward through the area into the early morning hours. Most of the snow bands have very light snow showers. However, there is one band of moderate snow dropping southeastward out of Petersburg. This area will likely move through Sussex, Surry, then Southampton and Isle of Wight counties in the next hour. Even with these additional bands of snow, additional accumulations should be fairly light…1″-2″ at the very most.

The winds are slowly decreasing through the region. However, with winds still gusting in the 20 to 30mph range, the snow is still blowing around and reducing visibilities.

Of course, the biggest public safety issue is the state of the roads. most of the area has temperatures hovering around 25 degrees. Temperatures will continue to drop overnight to lows from 18 to 23. Roads will obviously remain frozen overnight. With temperatures expected to peak near freezing for Sunday, I’m afraid that we’re pretty well stuck with snow and ice-covered secondary roads. Well-traveled and treated roads are likely to be in better shape for Sunday. Only problem is…we have to drive through the icy secondary roads to get to the clear roads!

Drive carefully, everyone! Or don’t drive at all!

This is now likely to be a major snowstorm for the region. As of yesterday, I was not airing  specific amounts for the region; they were outlandishly all over the place (4″-14″). Today though, things are lining up to be a storm of historic proportions.

As of this time, it looks like the most snow (12″-16″) will be from Virginia’s south side cities, west-southwestward toward Gatesville and Ahoskie, NC.  There could even be some areas of 20″ or more west and southwest of Emporia. North and south of that heaviest snow, we’re likely to see 8″-12″ of snow; that includes the Peninsula cities to the north and Elizabeth City to the south (though Elizabeth City could see some sleet, which could slightly lower those amounts).

That heaviest snow band has been shifting slightly north or south in the previous model runs, so actual results could vary. Regardless, snow is very likely to be significant!

Snowfall amounts could be similar to a storm in February of 1989 (15.4″). Not comparable to the 1980 storm yet, but still…