Well, we made it through Saturday with just a few sleet pellets mixing in with the rain. Sunday promises to be a much nicer day. Sunshine, light winds, and afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
Monday looks to be a cooler day with highs around 48. Scattered light rain is likely.
Monday night into early Tuesday, we’re looking at measurable snow into the region. At least a light accumulation of snow is likely. However, the forecast models present a great deal of variability (thus uncertainty!) as to how much snow we’ll actually get. There’s everything from a light dusting…all the way up to enough snow to shut down the northern portions of our area!
Here’s the worst case scenario first from the European model:
It’s showing anywhere between a dusting in North Carolina…to 2.5″ to 3.5″ near the Bay (Hampton Roads cities)…all the way up to over 9″ for the Eastern Shore. It’s a good forecast model, but likely overdoing the snowfall amounts substantially! Don’t believe it yet, but keep it in mind as we work our way through a few other models.
The above is a screen-grab from the new GFS model initializing (gathering 1:00 PM data) at 1:00 PM Saturday. A color code is not needed here…because the light pink color is obviously indicating the lightest snow over our area (.50″-1″ at most) while keeping heavier areas of snow well to the north.
Here’s the Navy model (GEM) initialized at 7:00 AM:
It likewise shows very light snow into most of the area. It does however, show a bulls-eye of 1″-2″ over Accomack County on the Eastern Shore.
Finally, here’s the NAM which initialized at 1:00 PM:
The color-coding on this one shows a dusting to a half inch in the light pink area…and a half inch to one inch in the darker pink area. Northern Accomack County again gets more snow…in the 1″ to 1.5″ range.
The models do have a very general agreement in that they intensify a low pressure center off the Eastern Shore, thus drawing in cold air and moisture (snow!) on the west side of the developing storm. But the one outlier here is the Euro showing greater intensification of the storm and just as importantly, holding the storm just off the Eastern Shore for a greater period of time.
The chances of at least a light dusting of snow are very good. But beyond a light dusting, the forecast models are just not coming together on a common solution regarding snowfall amounts. You’ll want to watch the situation over the weekend and into Monday (especially if you live near the Bay!). Forecast snowfall amounts will gradually become more apparent. The time frame for snow right now looks to be from after midnight on Monday night through around noon or so on Tuesday.