As far as any life-threatening effects from Danny, we’re likely to see heavy surf and rip currents. This definitely means stay off the water (no boating!) and stay out of the water (no swimming past knee deep!). We lost two people on Friday to the sea…and the ocean will definitely be more dangerous for Saturday! Tidal flooding should be relatively minimal.

Otherwise, Danny’s going to be a rain-maker. Bands of tropical rain are moving northward through the region and will likely continue into Saturday morning. Some of these rain bands could produce torrential downpours with 1″-2″ of rain per hour; that kind of quick downpour could create some localized street flooding. Thankfully, it’s overnight and on Saturday morning…and not during a weekday rush hour.

I’ll be on-duty following the stormy weather through around 3:00 AM, Saturday. At that time, Jeremy Wheeler will be in to monitor the situation. We’re not really expecting any weather that’s too terribly dangerous…just an abundance of caution. And we’re here for you, if needed.

Over the past several days, the computer models have had trouble building a consensus on what the storm would do. Once Danny organized itself enough to become a tropical storm, the forecast models have had a better starting point…and a better idea of where this thing is headed!

I had a look at some of the newer model runs before I went out the door Wednesday night, and consensus now continues to build; Danny is likely to move just off the coast of North Carolina, then scoot north-northeastward past Cape Cod and into the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Here’s the 11:00 PM forecast map from the National Hurricane Center:

(Bigger, better picture of above here)

If all goes as this map indicates, the effects from Danny should be relatively minor. High surf and rip currents are very, very likely from this scenario. It is somewhat likely that we could see some tropical storm force winds of about 40-45 mph. In the less likely, but entirely possible category…we could see some spotty heavy rain (~2″) mainly near the coast. Tidal flooding is very likely, but it should be relatively minor.

Timing the movement of Danny may be problematic, but it does appear that a timeframe from the predawn hours through the afternoon on Saturday seems most probable.

The above scenario is completely dependent on Danny “behaving” itself…and completely following the above Hurricane Center track and timing. Of course, that track is subject to change. So any deviation to the west or east makes for an entirely different ball game.

The National Hurricane Center map from above is largely based on forecast models from the NHC, the National Weather Service, academia, and other countries, etc. Each model has its own biases and peculiarities that must be taken into account. Here’s a bunch of forecast models and their tracks:

(Bigger, better picture of above map available here)

You will note that the vast majority of these are pretty much right down the line…and out to sea. The one “outlier” here is the UKMet (blue line over OBX), but this model run was from 12:00 GMT (8am, Weds.) and is the oldest model run on the chart. All of the newer model runs continue to push Danny past the North Carolina coast and out to sea.

Once again, nothing is “written in stone” on Danny quite yet; the forecast track could still be significantly off. But the models have now continued to trend eastward and out to sea for Danny. That’s a hopeful sign…and one that we all hope will continue!

Last month, NASA launched a new weather satellite.

And just yesterday, the GOES-14 satellite successfully beamed back its first image from 22,300 miles up.

We haven’t heard much lately about the hole in the Ozone Layer; that’s because the problem has largely been corrected. The invention of refrigeration and air conditioning had unintended consequences when refrigerant chemicals (chlorofluorocarbons) leaked into the atmosphere and began destroying the Ozone Layer at an alarming rate. The problem has largely been corrected by the substitution of hydrofluorocarbons as refrigerants.

It’s becoming likely that we’ll have to find a replacement for the replacement. It seems that hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) act as a “super greenhouse gas”, with a heat-trapping power 4,740 times more effective than carbon dioxide. Here’s a rundown on the latest from the Washington Post.

Two environmental crises have been successfully averted in recent decades–Acid Rain and Ozone Layer destruction. The ongoing Global Climate Change threat is bigger and much more affected by human activity. The potential solutions are also bigger and will obviously involve human lifestyle changes. But there are also silver linings in the search for clean, renewable energy–among them national security, energy self-sufficiency, huge economic profit for successful innovation, and the satisfaction of leaving our children a better future.

I ran across this wild  YouTube video over the weekend:

Train vs. Tornado

It happened on January 7th, 2008. The narrow view is an obviously stationary camera at the rear of the train’s engine. The video gets exciting as you begin to see rain on the window. Go to the end of the video; there’s a near disastrous “Hollywood ending”.

Here’s part of a statement from the Chicago National Weather Service office:

THE TORNADO THEN MOVED ACROSS THE CHICAGO AND NORTHWESTERN RAILROAD WHERE IT BLEW 12 RAILROAD FREIGHT CARS OFF THE TRACK. THE TRAIN WAS MOVING AT THE TIME THE TORNADO HIT IT…SO AS THE MAIN ENGINE STOPPED…THE REMAINING CARS ON THE TRACK CONTINUED ALONG IT AND SLAMMED INTO THE FRONT PART OF THE TRAIN. THIS CAUSED A FEW MORE CARS TO DERAIL…INCLUDING ONE CONTAINING HAZARDOUS MATERIALS THAT CAUSED THE EVACUATION OF THE TOWN OF LAWRENCE. THE DAMAGE IN LAWRENCE WAS RATED AS EF2 WITH WINDS UP TO 110 MPH.

Southern Southampton County and the cities of Franklin and Suffolk got nailed with big rain and a huge lightning show late on Tuesday evening. As I’m writing this (late!), there is a Flash Flood Watch for southern Suffolk until 2:45 AM Wednesday.

As of 1:00 AM, the storms over Suffolk are starting to weaken considerably. Also, they’re finally starting to move…instead of just sitting over Suffolk! But that also means that those pockets of heavy rain are likely to continue moving northeastward over the Hampton Roads cities through around 3:00 AM. At least, they’re moving…and not sitting over one area like one storm did over Suffolk earlier.

You may well be awakened by thunder and/or the sound of heavy rain. But for now, it looks like the threat of damaging winds is fading.

The daily occurrence of threatening weather will continue through Thursday, lessen somewhat on Friday and Saturday…and it looks like we’ll finally be rain-free for Sunday.

Have a good night! I’ll be going home as soon as things settle down just a bit more.

-Don

Oftentimes, we’ll get a report of storm damage in the region…with the excited comment that, “It was a tornado!”. Usually these reports don’t pan out when closer observation reveals the damage to have been caused by straight-line thunderstorm winds.

Last night’s damage in Great Bridge was caused by a tornado. Given the pictures sent in, there’s not too much doubt about it.

Check out these three pictures.

If these funnel clouds didn’t touch the ground, then they were just that…funnel clouds (dangerous anyway!). But if they did touch the ground, this was a tornado…and that seems very likely.

We had three bouts of severe thunderstorms on Monday (4/20). One round went through the Southside Hampton Roads cities prompting warnings at about 2:30 PM. Another more widespread area of dangerous storms set off numerous warnings between 5:00 and 6:30 PM. The final storm generated a tornado northwest of Smithfield at about 7:55 PM.

While the first two rounds of severe weather affected a greater number of people, I’d like to discuss the last one here.

We were under a Tornado Watch from 2:50 PM until 10:00 PM. A Tornado Watch is issued by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma. A Watch is issued over a broad time frame and a wide expanse of land…basically stating that there is the possibility of damaging thunderstorms which could get strong enough to generate tornadoes. When a tornado is indicated by radar or there is a reliable sighting, the local National Weather Service office in Wakefield, VA issues a Tornado Warning.

Of course, that Tornado Warning was issued for Isle of Wight County at about 7:55 on Monday evening. Radar was clearly indicating a tornado…and by 8:05, we had several reports of a tornado on the ground at Mill Swamp Rd. near the Moonlight area of Isle of Wight County. This area is about 3 miles northwest of Smithfield. The storm generating this tornado was moving northeastward toward the James River, eventually Fort Eustis, and a densely-populated area of Newport News and York County (Denbigh, Oyster Point, Grafton, etc.).

Moonlight is a rural, sparsely-populated area. There just weren’t as many structures and people which could be targeted by the tornado. Thankfully, a few trees knocked down and a scary storm seemed to be the worst of the problem here. But what to do when the storm (& possible tornado!) crosses the river and into the tens of thousands of people and structures in Newport News?

We went on the air immediately at 7:55 to let our viewers know that a possible tornado was on the ground and headed northeastward. As it became apparent that the possible tornado was in fact a tornado on the ground, we stayed on the air until the storm weakened around 8:20. With the storm moving northeastward into Newport News, the danger was imminent to a highly-populated area.

We walk a fine line when breaking into programming for severe weather announcements. The FCC requires that we properly notify the public of any severe weather threat. We truly agonize about what kind of notification is appropriate to each individual threat. In this case, there was a tornado on the ground headed toward tens of thousands of people. The threat was clear and imminent…and we stayed on the air, “covering” the first 20 minutes of programming.

Not only is there a legal responsibility to broadcast warnings over the public airwaves, there is a moral aspect to this, as well. We really are acting in the public interest with this type of situation; we simply don’t want to see anybody get hurt!

For those of you angry over missing the beginning of “Chuck” on NBC, I am truly sorry. Unfortunately, there is no technology which is capable of “beaming” a warning to only those homes which are in the path of a tornado; TV stations can only do “blanket coverage” and not just to individual areas.

When severe weather is in the area, we try our very best to not break into the show you might be watching…going so far as to do weather updates only during commercial breaks. Oftentimes, we can “crawl” the information across the bottom of the screen. We’ll be discreet when we can. But when a storm with a proven track record for damage is headed for your home, we will be staying on the air to tell you all about it.

We’ll see scattered showers and thunderstorms from around 2:00 AM through early afternoon Saturday. Widespread severe thunderstorms are not likely, but we could see an isolated storm cause some trouble. Temperatures in the upper 60s in the morning, but falling through the afternoon.

At sunrise (6:36 AM) on Sunday, we’ll see clear skies and temperatures around 40°-45°. Still lots of sunshine through the day, but a little cooler than we’ve been accustomed to lately. Highs: 55°-60°.

Have a great holiday weekend!

…to you all.

The weather should mostly cooperate for the holiday weekend.

Many schools are “out” for Friday and the kids should enjoy a summer-like day! Sunshine for most of the day with a few late day clouds. Look for high temperatures in the 76° to 82° range. It’ll likely be breezy by late afternoon (SSW 15-25 mph).

Showers and thunderstorms move into the region by midnight on Friday night. Some of those storms could be strong overnight, so tune in your TV to “you know where”! I’ll be on duty for Friday night and Jeremy Wheeler takes over for early Saturday morning.

For Saturday, we’ll see some morning showers and (strong?) thunderstorms. But the rain should end in Virginia by around noon. High temperatures should be around 65° to 68° early in the day, then falling in the afternoon.

Clearing and cooler for Saturday night. Sunny and cool for Sunday. Highs around 55° to 58°. You’ll need a jacket for any Easter Egg hunts.

In short, terrific weather Friday…some rain Friday night into Saturday morning…then cooler for Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Have a great holiday weekend, everybody!

-Don

*A Sweet Passover