Tropical Depression FourAugust 23rd, 2014 at 8:58 pm by Tiffany Savona WAVY under Weather
Tropical Depression Four developed across the southern Bahamas earlier today. The Hurricane Hunters finally found a closed circulation. Maximum sustained winds are at 35mph for now. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by tomorrow. Cristobal is the next name on the list. Forecasts have this storm becoming a category 1 hurricane by the middle of next week.
Notice that part of the cone of uncertainty includes the eastern parts of North and South Carolina. Most of the models keep this system offshore, passing somewhere between the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda. However, there are a few models that take the storm closer to the coast. So, the cone takes these models into account too.
Right now, there is not enough agreement among the computer models to have a high confidence forecast at this point. The 12Z European model run and the 18Z GFS model run have the storm tracking more east than its previous runs. This could be a trend and is something to watch. Here are the 2 scenarios. If this storm takes a track closer to the coast, then we will could see rain, gusty winds and rough surf Thursday and Friday. If this storm tracks more offshore, then we won’t see any rain or wind. We will still see higher surf by the middle of next week, which is great news for surfers.
Local Weather Update: A few more showers are possible tonight as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Northeast winds will stay up tomorrow too and should range from 10-20mph with gusts up to 25 mph at times. Expect a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s and lower humidity. Average high this time of year is 84°.
These persistent northeast winds, along with the almost new moon, will create higher than normal tides. Nuisance tidal flooding will be possible during times of high tide Sunday and Monday. This graph shows the time of high tide along with the forecast water level at Sewells Point, which is a benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads.
Along with the higher tides, there will also be a high risk for rip currents at the local beaches tomorrow. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay tuned for more updates on Tropical Depression Four. I will have a complete update on WAVY News 10 at 11 and Jeff Edmondson will be here on WAVY News 10 at 6:00 Sunday morning.
-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona