Tropical Depression Four

August 23rd, 2014 at 8:58 pm by under Weather

Tropical Depression Four developed across the southern Bahamas earlier today. The Hurricane Hunters finally found a closed circulation. Maximum sustained winds are at 35mph for now. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm by tomorrow. Cristobal is the next name on the list. Forecasts have this storm becoming a category 1 hurricane by the middle of next week.

Tropical Depression Four

Tropical Depression Four

Notice that part of the cone of uncertainty includes the eastern parts of North and South Carolina. Most of the models keep this system offshore, passing somewhere between the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda. However, there are a few models that take the storm closer to the coast. So, the cone takes these models into account too.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

Right now, there is not enough agreement among the computer models to have a high confidence forecast at this point. The 12Z European model run and the 18Z GFS model run have the storm tracking more east than its previous runs. This could be a trend and is something to watch. Here are the 2 scenarios. If this storm takes a track closer to the coast, then we will could see rain, gusty winds and rough surf Thursday and Friday. If this storm tracks more offshore, then we won’t see any rain or wind. We will still see higher surf by the middle of next week, which is great news for surfers.

Local Weather Update: A few more showers are possible tonight as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Northeast winds will stay up tomorrow too and should range from 10-20mph with gusts up to 25 mph at times. Expect a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s and lower humidity. Average high this time of year is 84°.

Forecast Wind Speeds on Sunday

Forecast Wind Speeds on Sunday

These persistent northeast winds, along with the almost new moon, will create higher than normal tides. Nuisance tidal flooding will be possible during times of high tide Sunday and Monday. This graph shows the time of high tide along with the forecast water level at Sewells Point, which is a benchmark for Southside Hampton Roads.

Sewells Point Tides

Sewells Point Tides

Along with the higher tides, there will also be a high risk for rip currents at the local beaches tomorrow. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay tuned for more updates on Tropical Depression Four. I will have a complete update on WAVY News 10 at 11 and Jeff Edmondson will be here on WAVY News 10 at 6:00 Sunday morning.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

2 Responses to “Tropical Depression Four”

  1. [...] Weblog: Tropical Melancholy 4 types, probability of hurricane Discover that a part of the cone of uncertainty consists of the japanese elements of North and South Carolina. A lot of the fashions hold this technique offshore, passing someplace between the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda. Nevertheless, there are a couple of fashions that … Learn extra on WAVY-TV (blog) [...]

  2. [...] Weblog: Tropical Melancholy 4 varieties, probability of hurricane Discover that a part of the cone of uncertainty consists of the japanese elements of North and South Carolina. A lot of the fashions maintain this technique offshore, passing someplace between the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda. Nevertheless, there are a number of fashions that … Learn extra on WAVY-TV (blog) [...]

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