Showers & Storms Likely Today

August 12th, 2014 at 9:09 am by under Weather

A couple of things are working together to increase our rain chances today.  We have already had some scattered showers this morning.  It was rather heavy near Hatteras, NC to the Rodanthe area.

Radar This Morning

Radar This Morning

Along with ample moisture pooling into the region, we also have a warm front to our south.  The front will move into the region this afternoon.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Southeast winds will prevail.  They’ll run about 10-15mph.  We are expecting lots of clouds today.  Despite this, high temperatures are forecast to rise up to the mid 80s.  This should help to create a little instability in the atmosphere.  Also, there will be some upper level winds moving into the region that will be able to support some strong storms.  So because of this, part of our area is under a slight risk for severe weather.

Slight Risk For Severe

Slight Risk For Severe

The main threat will be strong straight-lined winds, but an isolated tornado is not out of the question.  Large hail and heavy rain will also be possible.  Don’t rule out of couple of strong storms south of the slight risk area.  Here is what our Future Trak computer model shows for 3pm:

Future Trak (3 PM)

Future Trak (3 PM)

Rain will continue into tonight and early tomorrow as a cold front pushes in from the west.  This front will keep the rain chances in for tomorrow morning, but the front and the rain should push east of us by midday.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

In fact the rain should push out by mid-morning Wednesday. We are looking at about a quarter to half inch of rain in general, but if you get under some of the downpours, then you will likely see over an inch of rain.  Once the front pushes through, then the winds will flip around to northwesterly.  They won’t be too strong, but eventually they will pull in some drier air.  Highs will still be warm though as sunshine breaks out during the afternoon.   So we’ll see mid 80s again.  On Thursday and Friday we are looking good.   We’ll have drier air moving in, and highs will be in the low 80s.  Lows will be in the 60s.  It will be more great weather.  For now things look good next weekend.  One model shows a couple of stray showers on Saturday, but it is a pretty low chance.  Stay tuned.

With the recent full moon and the persistent east-southeast winds, there has been some nuisance tidal flooding lately.  This will happen around midday today and midnight tonight, but it shouldn’t be too bad.  It should be between 3.75 ft and 4 ft at Sewell’s Point.  For reference, minor tidal flooding there starts at 4.5 ft.

I didn’t mention the tropics during the newscast, but that is because the chance for development has dropped.  There is still a small cluster of thunderstorms in the eastern Atlantic that may develop, but it is a small chance for now.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


5 Responses to “Showers & Storms Likely Today”

  1. anthony says:

    Its sunny as hell in virginia beach. Thanks for misinformation about the weather. Some people have,jobs thatvare weather permitted and i do like to eat ya know. So go ahead and laugh about this reply but when you have a family to support its,not so funny you jerks

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Anthony. This is Jeremy. No need for names. There were showers in Virginia Beach. Just not all day. We take weather very seriously, and I take your post seriously as well. I’m sorry the forecast impacted your day as it did. The forecast was for scattered showers and storms, but rain was overforecast by the models for the Southside and parts of northeast North Carolina. Hence I overforecast there a bit. (There was heavy rain in the morning over the southern Outer Banks). Basically the focus was just more to the north. This time of year is very tricky, especially with this recent weather pattern. I’m hoping the pattern changes. In the meantime, we’ll try improve as best we can. Jeremy W.

  2. Crystal says:

    What happened? Elizabeth City saw, literally, a few sprinkles and the rest of the day was partly cloudy. Then it got extremely humid/muggy in the late afternoon. Why didn’t we see all the potentially heavy rain? Even the weather channel said an 80% chance for rain. Was it forecasted to be scattered?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Crystal. The forecast was for it to be scattered, but the models did overforecast the rain for the Southside and parts of northeast North Carolina. Hence I overforecast there as well. Parts of the Outer Banks were soaked in the morning. It’s been a tough forecast lately. There was heavy rain just north of both of us during the afternoon. Thanks for asking. Hopefully this tricky pattern breaks soon. It’s driving us crazy in the weather department. Jeremy W.

  3. Crystal says:

    Oh ok. That’s so crazy! The Southside and NE NC had like a bubble around them! How come it’s so hard to forecast in the summer? Is it just the way the fronts move through or something? I remember reading in one of your blogs that most cold fronts in the summer stall out. I know meteorologists are not always able to be 100% correct in the forecast because no one can predict what mother nature will do next. Just goes to show how random it can be and I take that into consideration when something like this happens. I wanted to be a meteorologist when I was a child but now that I’m grown up and see how difficult it can be to accurately predict the future (and how mad some people get) I’ll just stick to learning bits and pieces from them!

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