A Shifty Weekend?

August 8th, 2014 at 8:44 am by under Weather

The forecast over the last 24 hours has been very very….Shifty!  I’ve mentioned how the whole weather pattern has been frustrating for the past month or so.  When it comes to stationary or slow moving fronts this time of year, the models have a difficult time determining where the convection (thunderstorms) will form.  Case in point….this weekend.  Today is easy.  High pressure is in control.  Partly cloudy with highs in the 80s and a light northeast breeze.  Done!

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

By Saturday the area of low pressure over Tennessee is forecast to move east/southeast along a drifting stationary front.  Now yesterday some of the computer models had it moving to about central Virginia/North Carolina.  It brought the front north up to just south of our area.  This created a scenario where flooding rain was possible for our region.  But!  I mentioned in yesterday’s blog that I had a low confidence in this as the models haven’t handled things well lately.  The rain is very dependent on where the front and low setup.  So… since just last night the models have trended south/southwest with the rainfall.  In fact some of them now call for a pretty dry forecast for Hampton Roads.  I am skeptical.  Officially, I’m calling for some spotty showers tomorrow morning with a 30% chance for scattered showers tomorrow afternoon.  Then a 50% chance for rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.  (It was up to 70-80% during that time). The latest forecast from the Weather Prediction Center (a branch of NOAA) puts the heavy rain over central and western Virginia/North Carolina for the whole weekend.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

NOAA Rain Forecast

Now we need to be careful.  With such a dramatic shift in the last 18 hours, it’s possible that it could shift back the other way.  Heavy rain is possible for at least some of our northeast North Carolina counties. There has already been a lot of rain there lately. So localized flooding is still possible for some cities to the southwest.   Stay tuned for updates.

The low will move slowly to the southeast into Tuesday.  So at least some scattered showers are possible through then.

The Atlantic ocean is quiet, but Hawaii is dealing with Iselle this morning in the Pacific.  Luckily it had weakened on satellite before landfall.  Also the Central Pacific Hurricane Center had downgraded the storm.  In fact the winds were brought down to 60mph as it moved over land.  That was good news.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical Satellite

The island is experiencing some strong gusty winds and heavy rain, but I believe the overall impacts won’t be too bad.  There have been some trees down and power outages so far.  There may be some mudslides along the higher elevations though.  The storm will move away from the big island later this morning and will weaken as it moves west.  Now Julio is a strong hurricane. However, it is likely to weaken and move north of the islands.  So I don’t think it will have much of an impact on the region.  Outside of a few problems, many residents will be just fine despite two storms near the Hawaiian waters.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

2 Responses to “A Shifty Weekend?”

  1. Jason says:

    I noticed when Don was talking about the hurricanes Wednesday or Thursday that there was quite clearly a typhoon on the edge of the satellite radar map he had. I think by googling there are actually two of those out there.

  2. RG says:

    Weather reports in general are a joke. We got the same report last week: storms all week. Instead, it was hot and dry for most of it.

    It’s a coin toss.

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