Uh Oh! Wet Weekend Ahead.

July 31st, 2014 at 8:03 am by under Weather

Well it’s still a nice day today, but things will get pretty wet as we go into the weekend.  Today will still have dry air and high pressure in the region.

Satellite/Radar/Surface

Satellite/Radar/Surface

Winds will be more southerly this afternoon.  So we’ll see some warmer temperatures (low/mid 80s).  By tomorrow the stationary front offshore will move west.  This will bring us a few showers later in the day, but only with a 30% chance.  Highs will be in the low/mid 80s, but the humidity will be increasing.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

By tomorrow evening the rain chances will increase to 40-50%.  Then….Saturday.  The front will sit right on top of us and give us a high chance for rain.  For now I put the number up to 70%, but I may increase it.  The front will also stick around on Sunday.  So we have another day with high chances for rain.

Rain Chances

Rain Chances

It’s a little early for rain totals, but preliminary estimates are easily over 1″.  I’m hoping that it doesn’t rain the entire time, but let’s just say that the breaks look few and far between.  Stay tuned.  If the front sets up just a little to the east or west, then maybe we can drop the chances a bit.  At least for one of the days.

In the tropics I’m still tracking that pesky cluster of thunderstorms east of the Lesser Antilles.  It is still likely to form into a tropical depression or storm.  So far, though, it has been fighting some dry air to the north of it. The models still run it up close to Puerto Rico.  Then they generally take it towards the Bahamas.  Luckily towards the end of the forecast they keep the system out to sea.

Tropical Forecast Models

Tropical Forecast Models

We’ll continue to monitor, but for now it’s wait and see.

Speaking of the tropics.  There is new research about forecasting hurricane intensity.  New research suggests that the microphysics of the water particles at the surface behave differently as the wind speeds increase in a hurricane.  Here is the full article: Hurricane Intensity Forecast Research.

Staying along the lines of water…Another article that I found comes from NOAA.  It talks about how nuisance flooding (flooding that is below minor tidal flooding levels) has increased in Norfolk. In fact it has increased quite a bit here and in several other east coast cities. Here is that full article: Nuisance Flooding Increase.  I have witnessed this myself.  In fact the threshold for minor tidal flooding at Sewell’s Point has changed from 5 feet to 4.5 feet over the last few years.  While a believer in Global Warming and sea level rise, I also wonder how much the man-made structures have contributed to the increase.  There are a lot of ships, docks, and structures in the Bay.  Also the tunnels must take up a decent amount of space though most of the tunnels are underground.  It’s something that should be studied in my opinion.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

2 Responses to “Uh Oh! Wet Weekend Ahead.”

  1. Dan says:

    “I also wonder how much the man-made structures have contributed to the increase. There are a lot of ships, docks, and structures in the Bay. Also the tunnels must take up a decent amount of space though most of the tunnels are underground.”

    Unless I’m missing something, or mis-reading your comment, the Bay is an open area (as opposed to, say, a lake or pond), so any increase in level from man-made structures would be spread out among all the waters that can trace a line to the Bay (all the oceans, the seas, etc.) I suppose that while *technically* there’d be an increase in the Bay’s level, it be so small as to be unmeasureable. As an aside, I seem to remember reading a report/article that one of the contributors to Norfolk’s flooding is land settling.

  2. Sciencegeek says:

    Please remember that you cannot just attribute sea level rise to anthropomorphic factors. If you read the article, you will find on pg. 10 this lovely nugget of info:

    “U.S. Northeast (NE) Coast. There has been a significant increase of nuisance flooding occurrences along the U.S. NE Atlantic Coast (Figure 4b) largely in response to high regional SLRrel rates (approximately 3-5 mm/yr) from vertical land subsidence (Boon et al., 2010; Zervas et al., 2013) most notable in the Mid-Atlantic region and lower Chesapeake Bay.”

    The ‘vertical land subsidence’ that they discuss is attributed to the effects of isostatic rebound since the end of the last glacial age. Think of the Earth’s crust like a huge seesaw. When one end is pushed down, the other end is uplifted. The same thing happened to the lithosphere. The weight of the glacial ice cover pushed down on the land underneath it, causing uplifting of the crust in our region. As the glaciers retreated and melted, our area is slowly subsiding as the crust reaches a state of equilibrium.

    Most of us can still walk in our back yards and find dirt that is littered with shells from sea critters that dates back to less than 100,000 years ago. It is not surprising that the land in this area is eventually making its way back to the sea. We have enjoyed a brief hiatus in the geologic time scale of having land above sea level. That is not the norm for this area in the grand scheme of things.

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