Strong To Severe Storms TodayJuly 15th, 2014 at 8:18 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
Once again we are looking at some active weather in the region. There are some ingredients coming together to produce the chance for severe weather today. We are under a slight risk, and I wonder if we will be upgraded to a moderate risk for severe. This risk is put out by the Storm Prediction Center. We could see some severe winds and large hail. Heavy rain is likely over parts of the region. An isolated tornado is possible, but it is the least likely of today’s threats. There are several ingredients that are coming together to cause this elevated threat for severe.
First off…it is going to be hot and humid once again. Temps will rise to the low 90s and the dew points are in the low 70s. This will make for a very muggy day, and that will lead to a good amount of instability. The CAPE (Convective Available Potential Instability) is one way to measure instability. It will be high like yesterday. It will probably be over 2000. For reference 500-1000 is about the minimum for some strong storms. However, today there will also be some upper level wind support to go with it. Due to the cooler air over the Midwest, the jetstream is taking a large dip.
It will be coming up just to our west, and it will be edging east. That is in the upper levels. This will help to support the storms from above while the instability will let the storms grow from the bottom. At the same time, the surface a strong cold front will be moving into western Virginia/North Carolina into the afternoon. So the area ahead of both of these features will be ripe for thunderstorms. Right now (as I write this) the front is in Ohio and almost to Pennsylvania.
Notice the showers and storms out ahead of the front earlier this morning. The front will make it to our area by this evening, but storms will fire out way out ahead of it. In fact our Future Trak model develops some scattered strong storms already by 3pm.
The front will slowly push through our region. We’ll continue with a chance for rain through tonight into tomorrow morning. The rain may even linger through noon tomorrow, but we should start drying out by the afternoon. Overall we are looking at a good 1-2″ of rain through the region. It will depend on whether or not you sit under one of the local downpours.
Again… highs today will be in the low 90s with a heat index in the mid 90s. Tomorrow the front will knock our highs down to the low 80s. We’ll see nice weather Thursday and Friday with highs in the low/mid 80s. We will get some of that drier Midwestern air into the region. Low temperatures will be in the 60s on Thursday and Friday mornings. I only have a slight chance for a shower on Saturday, but a higher chance for Sunday. Highs should still be in the 80s.
Please be weather aware today. Especially if you are heading to the beach or out to the local parks.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler