Tropical Storm Arthur

July 1st, 2014 at 1:15 pm by under Weather

This is a midday update to the tropical forecast.  I did a longer blog about the overall forecast earlier this morning.  Arthur is now a tropical storm with winds of 40mph.  It hasn’t moved much since this morning.  So it is still about 95  miles southeast of Cape Canaveral Florida.  It is moving northwest, but only at 2mph.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

The forecast has been adjusted upward, but the track hasn’t changed too much.  The National Hurricane Center has increased Arthur’s sustained winds to 80 mph just south of Hatteras by early Friday morning.

Forecast Of Arthur

Forecast Of Arthur

If this forecast verifies, then it will put down some damaging winds over the southern Outer Banks.  Possibly some gusty winds for Hampton Roads, but with less strength.  NHC has the most likely track as passing just offshore from Hatteras by around 8am.  There is some pretty good agreement in the models on this scenario. Keep in mind that the possible path (yellow cone) does include some coastal areas just west of the coastline.  The hurricane/storm would then likely push away from us.  We would see some gusty winds behind it for a bit, but then the winds would probably subside by Friday evening.

Meteorologist Tiffany Savona will have an updated track and forecast at 5pm this evening.  I don’t anticipate any huge changes, but I’m hoping that the models will either trend down in strength or farther east.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

3 Responses to “Tropical Storm Arthur”

  1. Nora White says:

    Hi,
    Can you explain why we use millibars for hurricanes and inches of mercury for land events?

    Thanks

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hello Nora. I think it’s due to meteorologists using millibars when talking about hurricanes for a long time. We also use it for most of our studies and daily duties. The public has used inches of mercury for the longest time, but we’ve gotten away from using pressure on a daily basis. So basically it’s out of habit. I could be wrong, but that’s my understanding. Jeremy

  2. Caroline Barnes says:

    That new surge map…experimental from the NHC is pretty neat. Should be interesting when the storm gets closer to us.

    Hoping it is out and away by Sat….son’s wedding reception…outside!

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