Arthur A Little Stronger Tonight

July 1st, 2014 at 9:26 pm by under Weather

Tropical Storm Arthur continues to strengthen over the warm waters near Florida. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 50mph and the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has Arthur becoming a category 1 hurricane as early as Thursday afternoon. That is a little bit earlier than the previous update.

Tropical Storm Arthur

Tropical Storm Arthur

The latest forecast models have trended a little bit more east with their solutions. Now most of the spaghetti plots are just east of Hatteras. The farther east this storm goes, the less of an impact it will have on us. We will have to see if this trends holds. Sometimes these spaghetti plots go back and forth.

Forecast Models

Forecast Models

Here are the possible tracks and impacts with Arthur. If Arthur tracks west of Hatteras, then we will see more of an impact, especially along the Outer Banks.

Arthur Takes a Western Track

Arthur Takes a Western Track

Notice the areas highlighted in yellow and orange. This is where the heaviest rain and strongest winds will be located. The Outer Banks, parts of Northeastern North Carolina and coastal areas of Virginia could see heavy rain and tropical storm force winds. If Arthur does become a hurricane, then we could see hurricane force winds (74mph and higher) along the Outer Banks.  Inland sections of Virgina and North Carolina will still see rain and wind, but wind speeds will likely be less than tropical storm force strength.

If Arthur tracks east of Hatteras, then the worst of the storm will stay out to sea.

Arthur Takes Eastern Track

Arthur Takes Eastern Track

The yellow area shows the heaviest rain and strongest winds staying offshore. We will still see rain and gusty winds, but winds will likely stay below 40mph.
We are still 3 days out, so the track will shift. Right now, you should have a hurricane kit ready to go. Find out what to put in your hurricane kit here. If you plan on traveling, it may be a good idea to leave early if possible, to beat the worst of the weather Thursday night into Friday morning. Have a back-up plan in place for any outdoor activities that are planned. Folks along the Outer Banks need to prepare for possible evacuations just in case this storm takes a more western route.

11 PM Update: The National Hurricane Center has shifted the track slightly to the east.

11 PM Update on Tropical Storm Arthur

11 PM Update on Tropical Storm Arthur

Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will have another update on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 tomorrow morning.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 

 

 

4 Responses to “Arthur A Little Stronger Tonight”

  1. Kim says:

    We’re going to be in Orange, VA on Thursday night. We had planned to do some site seeing in Orange and expected to get to Virginia Beach around 3-ish on Friday afternoon. From current storm forecasts, it looks like we might be wise to get up early on Friday and get to our hotel in time for the 11 a.m. check in to avoid driving during the worst part of the storm. Our other option would be to remain inland in Orange, but this may mean we might get stuck in the traffic diversions later on Friday that the Virginia Beach police are warning about… due to the fireworks schedule. Any suggestions? What’s the likelihood that the beachfront will flood? Our hotel is around 6th Street.

    1. Billy says:

      Kim,
      It’s tough to say, but having lived near the Oceanfront a few years ago that area does flood easily, even in non-tropical storms it floods quickly. If it were me, I’d rather fight the possible traffic rather than worry about flooding. But, then if your hotel has a raised parking garage you should be ok.

    2. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Kim. I really doubt the hotel will flood, but there will be some minor tidal flooding near the region. it takes a lot though for the water to reach the Hotels. by 3pm the weather should be quickly improving. I think you’ll be fine. If you come in earlier, then you will hit the heavy rain and gusty winds. Winds will still be a little breezy at 3pm, but they will improve during the evening. Jeremy

  2. Rebel says:

    It’ll be interesting to see what sort of weather Hampton Roads gets. So far most of the focus has been on OBX and North Carolina? What about us…?

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