Severe RisingApril 29th, 2014 at 8:59 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
It was a rough day for many folks in the eastern United States yesterday. There was a tornado outbreak over several states in the southeast. About 58 tornadoes were reported with the bulk of them over Mississippi and Alabama.
The center of the storm still lies to the north up around Iowa. However, a big stream of moisture and strong upper level winds is coming up ahead of it from the Gulf of Mexico and is pushing up into Ohio.
This is where the focus will be for storms today.
Rain will increase across our area through the day. Showers and storms will form along a warm front this afternoon into the evening.
It was a warm front that caused the focus for the severe weather last Friday. (It was not the only cause). So our area is in a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Strong winds and hail will be the main threat. However, an isolated tornado in the region is possible. The higher chance for severe weather will lie just west of us, but we will have to be on the lookout. Here is what our Future Trak computer model shows this for this evening.
Temperatures won’t warm up too much today, but we are trending warmer. Highs will be in the upper 60s, but that may not happen until this evening after the front passes. Winds will be easterly at 10-15mph, then they’ll turn a little more out of the southeast.
Tonight the rain will taper off. We’ll see some scattered showers and a few storms. We’ll almost see a repeat tomorrow, but it was start and end warmer. Lows will be in the 60s. Highs will be in the upper 70s. We’ll have some scattered rain showers in the morning with scattered strong storms tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow the layer of deep humidity will run right through the east coast. With the warmer temperatures, higher humidity, and stronger upper level winds winds we’ll see an enhanced threat for severe weather.
I wouldn’t be surprised if part of our area gets put under a moderate risk for severe. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma puts out these risks along with watches. They try to outline the areas where there is an elevated risk for severe storms and/or tornadoes. The storm system will slowly move east. We will still have a chance for storms on Thursday. Maybe strong storms again. However, the cold front is expected to move through by Thursday evening. So Friday should be more stable. Highs will be near 80 on Thursday before the front arrives. It will cool to the 70s on Friday. The front may stall just offshore. So I have a slight chance for a shower on Friday. We still look drier this weekend. Highs will be in the 70s.
So far we’ve picked up about a half inch up to an inch and a half in the region.
My weather watcher Greg in Currituck NC had 1.5″. Doris on the Eastern Shore had 0.5″. Henry in Denbigh on the Peninsula had 0.75″ of rain. Today we’ll see another half inch to an inch and a half. Some locations will see 2-3″ over the next 48 hours. So some localized flooding will be possible. Especially on Wednesday. Stay tuned.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler