Moisture And Storms IncreaseApril 28th, 2014 at 9:11 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
Last Friday we had 3 confirmed tornadoes in the region. Compared to other typical tornadoes in our area, these were strong and long-lived tornadoes that moved over northeast North Carolina. Meteorologist Tiffany Savona did a detailed blog about them over the weekend. Here is that blog: North Carolina Tornadoes.
The setup last week was that there was a 2nd area of low pressure that formed near the region while the main low was over the Midwest. Out ahead of it we started the day dry, but deep moisture pushed up all the way to the state border. Surface winds were out of the southeast.
Luckily the deep moisture did not move through Hampton Roads, but it was close. Today the deep moisture is locked up to our west and southwest. We also have a cool flow out of the east. So I don’t expect any thunderstorms except for maybe 1 or 2.
We will have moisture increase at the mid levels today. In fact the warmer moist air will push in at the mid levels while the cool air flows in from the east. This will cause overrunning, and that is why we’ll see rain showers later today. High temps will only be in the low/mid 60s. Winds at the surface will be out of the east at 5-10mph.
There is a big area of low pressure off to our west again. It has caused over 200 reports of severe weather in the last 24 hours. There was even a destructive tornado close to Little Rock in a town called Mayflower. The center of the low is over Iowa and Nebraska, but will slowly edge east today.
With the overrunning we will see rain increase this afternoon. Again, I don’t expect many thunderstorms (if any). However, the rain will be heavy during the evening commute. The heavy rain potential will start up around 4pm and will continue through about 8pm.
The rain will taper off tonight, but the chances won’t drop to zero. We could see a few showers tomorrow morning. Some models show a lull in the rain tomorrow in the late morning through the early afternoon, but I think we’ll at least hold on to a weak chance for showers through that time. Then the rain chances will pick up late Tuesday into Wednesday. We could see a few thunderstorms tomorrow. Highs will rise to the low 70s as winds turn more out of the soutehast. By mid-week the storm chances go way up. We could see some severe weather as the deep moisture increases through the entire region. Winds will be generally out of the south for 2-3 days which will really increase the humidity. Also the area of low pressure will move out of the Midwest and edge east into the Mid-Atlantic states Wednesday into Thursday.
The Storm Prediction Center is already focusing on a chance for severe weather for our region on Wednesday. The threat could continue into Thursday. The cooler/more stable weather won’t really arrive until Friday. However, the cold front looks to stall out near the coast on Friday. So I have a chance for rain in through then. We may even see a few spotty showers on Saturday. I hope not.
With all of the rain we could see some flooding later this week. At least in the local sense, but maybe even in the region. Our Future Trak model this morning showed about 1.5-3.5″ of rain in the forecast through Wednesday. When I did the mid-morning update it pulled back the amount. So I am a little dubious with it’s last solution. Regardless, here is the 48 hour rain totals (for now).
Again, I say for now because I think they’ll go back up in the next forecast or two. If we keep the rain going through Friday, then I wouldn’t be surprised if the area gets 5-6″. In general it’s good to keep the rain going for local gardeners, but this may be too much too son. There are a lot of regional farmers that are trying to get their crops in the fields. So this is not good for them. There are two silver linings to this forecast. 1. Anyone, like myself, that planted grass seed recently won’t need to water their lawns this week. And 2. The pollen levels should stay fairly low with all of the rain around. IF there is a long stretch of no rain (6-12 hours), then the pollen will briefly increase though until it rains again.
So stay tuned for updates to the forecast. The weather will definitely be busy for the next few days. Hopefully, I’m wrong.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler