Old Man Winter Not Giving Up Yet

March 22nd, 2014 at 8:32 pm by under Weather

It seems like our weekend pattern is on repeat as far as temperatures go. After looking over the temperature data for the month of March, I plotted the high temperatures for each Saturday and Sunday in March so far. Here is what I got…

Highs Temperatures For Each Saturday/Sunday in March

Highs Temperatures For Each Saturday/Sunday in March

One weekend day has been very warm and well above average, while the other weekend day  has been much cooler or well below average. This pattern has continued this weekend too! Today we saw highs in the mid 70s and we will likely see highs in the upper 40s tomorrow. A cold front will move in around midnight tonight, switching our winds out of the northwest. Expect falling temperatures on your Sunday. We will likely see our high temperature early in the morning. With the a strong northeast breeze, it will feel even colder out there. Much different from the 70s we saw today!

Sunday's Falling Temperatures

Sunday’s Falling Temperatures

We are also tracking the chance for rain showers tomorrow afternoon. Rain looks to move in after 12 PM, closer to 2-3PM. Showers will continue on and off through the afternoon and early evening. Showers seem to be most widespread between 3-6 PM. A few sleet pellets could mix in from time to time.

Future Trak at 3 PM Sunday

Future Trak at 3 PM Sunday

Even though the rain looks heavy, rain totals should only range from 0.1-0.25 inches. Now onto the bigger storm that will impact Hampton Roads on Tuesday. Most computer models are still showing a rain/snow mix on Tuesday. The European model is still the driest solution for us with the area of low pressure well offshore. This particular model has had a lot of run-to-run consistency meaning that it has consistently shown the low offshore with a little bit of precipitation for us. The Canadian model, which had the low closest to us last week is now trending more east. It also looks like the GFS is starting to push the low a little farther east as well. What does this mean? The heaviest precipitation, snow in this case, would fall just to the northwest of the low. If the low continues to remain well enough offshore, the heaviest precipitation could miss us completely. That doesn’t mean we won’t see rain or snow though. It just means we will not see the heavy snow or the heavy rain. Temperatures are forecast to be just below freezing Tuesday morning. We could see snow fall across some of our inland locations first early Tuesday before changing over to all rain.

Future Trak Long-Range 9 AM Tuesda

Future Trak Long-Range 9 AM Tuesday

Winds will be blowing in from the northeast. Water temperatures are in the mid 40s. Therefore, slightly warmer air will be moving into areas along the coast, keeping the precipitation mostly rain. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 30s to near 40°.

Future Trak at 12 PM Tuesday

Future Trak Long-Range at 12 PM Tuesday

If any parts of Hampton Roads were to see accumulating snow it would be Tuesday evening. This is when temperatures will be falling close to 32 degrees.

Future Trak Long Range at 7 PM Tuesday

Future Trak Long-Range at 7 PM Tuesday

Future Trak has a wintry mix across all of Hampton Roads. If there is more of a rain/snow mix, then the rain will melt the snow, which will really cut down on accumulations. But if some of this pink area is all snow, then we could see minor accumulations where temperatures have dropped below freezing. We have to keep in mind that ground temperatures are still very warm, especially after seeing highs in the 60s and 70s for three days in a row. If the ground is too warm, then it will be hard for the snow to accumulate. If the computer models continue to trend east with the low, then we are not looking at a big event across Hampton Roads. The exact location of the low pressure area is very important to this forecast. We are still 3 days away, so it is too early for snow totals right now. Stay tuned for more updates!

Don’t pack away your winter coat just yet! You will need it tomorrow and next week.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

One Response to “Old Man Winter Not Giving Up Yet”

  1. Al Prentice says:

    Great forecasting. Thanks!

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