The Spring Tease

March 12th, 2014 at 9:07 am by under Weather

I was out in the yard yesterday doing some yard work.  My trees still drop a lot of leaves during the Winter.  So I have to rake for about 7 months out of the year.  It’s that time again.  It’s worth it though to make the yard look good, and to enjoy the weather.  In the back of my mind I kept imagining Thursday’s weather when I’ll probably be bundled up in 4 layers of clothing.  Big changes are on the way.

It was a real mess in Chicago this morning.  Residents there were getting dumped on with snow.

Midwest Snow-Southeast Rain

Midwest Snow-Southeast Rain

A large area of low pressure was moving from Illinois towards Ohio.  The snow will keep moving east and affect a large part of the Ohio River Valley, the Great Lakes area, and the northeast states.  Some states will see a foot of snow.  We are not expecting snow here, but we will get the cold.  Today we will still be very warm.  Despite lots of clouds, we’ll go for highs in the 70s.  I was thinking upper 70s, but now I’m thinking mid 70s due to the clouds thickening early.  We’ll see a few showers in the late morning to early afternoon. Then we’ll see some scattered showers and storms during the late afternoon into the evening.  A cold front will stay to our west today, but it will move in this evening.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Winds will gust up to 25-30mph out of the southwest this afternoon, but we could see some gusts above 40mph this evening as the front passes.  The chance for severe weather is hard to pin down.  The Storm Prediction Center has our area on the very edge of the slight risk.  Most of us are not in the slight risk, but I’m curious to see the updates.  In my mind, we have a few things working against severe weather.  The first is the ample cloud cover that’s out there.  That is always a big factor when it comes to severe forecasting.  Also, we don’t have a lot of deep moisture in place. In fact…dew points are only going to be in the mid 50s later today.  That’s not impressive.  Upper level winds are strong, but you need big thunderstorms to be able to pull those stronger winds down to the surface.  So for now I think we’ll just see a few strong storms this evening. An isolated severe storm is possible.

Here is the front and the rain on Future Trak at 8pm.  That’s about the best time best time to see storms:

Future Trak 9pm

Future Trak 8pm

Once the front comes through the winds will turn out of the northwest, and temperatures will drop like a brick.  A heavy brick.  So lows tonight will fall all the way down to the low 30s.  Keep that in mind for the sensitive plants that are blooming in the yards.  You may want to cover them with some mulch.  If you’re like me, then you can take some pine straw and cover a few things up.  My day lilies are flowering.  If you don’t get it done today, then you will need to tomorrow as low temps Thursday night will be in the upper 20s. That will be a bigger hit to the flora and fauna.

I didn’t mean to skip tomorrow’s forecast.  I just wanted to stay on topic.  Ahem.. so tomorrow we’ll see partly cloudy skies, but the strong northwest winds will keep the temperatures down.  We’ll be in the 30s almost all day.  We’ll top-off just around 40 degrees for an hour or two.  Remember it will feel like the 20s in the morning with the wind chills.  It will feel like the low 30s during the afternoon.

We will warm up a bit on Friday.  We’ll be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 40s.  Then there’s Saturday… The models have been pushing the timing of the rain back.  So that is good news for the St. Patrick’s Day parade and some of the events for the Shamrock Marathon.  For now it looks like some scattered showers late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.  However, it’s possible that the rain may keep getting pushed back.  If it goes into Sunday morning, then that will impact the bigger races for the Shamrock.  I’ll be able to lock that down tomorrow when the weekend gets into closer range of the hi-res models.

Until then.  Get the coats back out of the closet.  You’ll need them by tomorrow.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

 

 

2 Responses to “The Spring Tease”

  1. Elizabeth says:

    We need weather magicians, who can make the weather be what we want, rather than just giving us accurate but unpleasant information!

  2. SS says:

    I like your blog!!!!

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