And Then…A Nor’easter

March 6th, 2014 at 8:46 am by under Weather

Ok… I have some good news, and some bad news.  The good news is that I don’t see any wintry weather for Hampton Roads over the next 36 hours.  The bad news… It looks like a nor’easter will move through over the next 36 hours.  It should be relatively weak, but there will be some impacts.  The system is far from us today.  It is actually forming over the Gulf of Mexico.  Heavy rain was pushing into Georgia ahead of the system.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

We actually have high pressure around here today.  There were a few showers towards the southern Outer Banks this morning, but Hampton Roads was dry.  As the high pressure tries to build in a little from the west, it has increased the winds out ahead of it.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Other than a stray shower, we should stay dry today.  Winds will gust out of the northeast at 35mph near the shore.  We’ll see gusts to 25mph inland.  Highs will be in the low 40s.  Tonight skies will become totally cloudy.  We’ll see rain push up from the south by the early morning.  We will have a high chance for rain during the morning commute tomorrow.  So that could slow you down.

Future Trak (7 AM Friday)

Future Trak (7 AM Friday)

Notice the wintry weather is well west of our area.  This is due to the milder maritime air that will likely push far inland due to the persistent northeast winds.  Wind may even turn easterly for a time which would aid in that setup.  Temps will be in the upper 30s tomorrow morning.  Through the day the area of low pressure will move northeast along the Atlantic coast.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow’s Forecast

It will push into Hampton Roads by the late afternoon into the evening.  We’ll see off and on rain showers through the day.  Winds will keep blowing out of the northeast at 15-20mph with more gusts to 35mph near the shore.  At least the temperatures will warm up a bit.  We’ll see highs near 50 as warmer air wraps around the system.  Of course you won’t really get to enjoy the warmer air as the wind and rain will keep blowing.  Here is what Future Trak shows for rain at 6pm tomorrow.

Future Trak (6pm Friday)

Future Trak (6pm Friday)

Notice that there is a gap in the rain from Manteo up to Virgina Beach and Hampton.  That is a small pocket of drier air wrapping into the center of the low.  So the center, in this model run, would be right over Norfolk.  If the low sits right on top of us, then the winds would lighten up for a bit in the evening.  If it forms a little more offshore, then the winds will stay up the entire time.  The system is forecast to move out by Friday night, but winds will stay strong behind it.  Rain will be a problem for many folks.  We’ve had a lot of wet weather recently.  Plus, we just melted the snow we had in the region.  Our Future Trak model was calling for a little less than an inch of rain through Friday night.  I updated it, and now it is calling for 1-2″ of rain.

Forecast Rainfall

Forecast Rainfall

That is more in line with my thinking.  This will lead to localized flooding as well as ponding on roadways.  This is separate from tidal flooding.  We may see some minor tidal flooding as well late Friday night into early Saturday morning.  The winds will be persistent from the northeast, but at least the moon phase is not conducive to tidal flooding.  It will be a half-moon.  Full and new moons produce higher natural tides.  Here is the latest forecast from our weather team:

Tide Forecast (Sewell's Point)

Tide Forecast (Sewell’s Point)

The tide forecast will likely change depending on the exact track of the low.  So stay tuned for updates.  For now I would expect nuisance to minor tidal flooding in the area.

The weather still looks good for the weekend with highs in the 50s.  We’ll still have some nice weather on Monday and Tuesday as well.  But another system will try to move in late next week.  It’s possible that we could see a return of some wintry weather with that one, but I like to take things one system at a time.  Plus it’s pretty far out.  Stay tuned! Ugh

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

3 Responses to “And Then…A Nor’easter”

  1. Kelly C. says:

    I don’t think we will be in a drought this summer!!!!

  2. Katie says:

    Yes I know you you are just the messenger and all that, but don’t make me un-bookmark you!! :( Ick Ick Icky weather!!

  3. Janell says:

    Keep us informed on that storm, Jeremy!

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