How’d We Do, And Is There More?March 4th, 2014 at 8:47 am by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
It’s been busy-busy around here for the last 36 hours. I’ll admit…I’m worn out. Yesterday we did get that second snow burst in the evening as the models had predicted.
This put down a couple of inches of snow on top of the sleet that had fallen during the midday and afternoon. Here is a great photo of King Neptune easily faring the storm.
That photo was sent in to firstname.lastname@example.org by Matthew Presler. Very cool shot. The snow and mix from that system has long ended. The forecast was actually pretty good. Here was my forecast from yesterday:
Meteorologist Tiffany Savona and I put together a map of the actual snow totals for the area. We pieced it together using NWS reports, social media, and weather watchers. Here is that map:
I did see some reports in Newport News that were closer to an inch, but there were other reports of 2-4″ between Newport News and Hampton. We also had a decent layer of sleet across the region that was well predicted. So while we typically get a chance to calm down and catch our breath now, there is a new, albeit weaker, system that will affect us today. A stationary front has been sitting offshore near the Gulf Stream.
You can see a small strip of rain showers along this on the above satellite/radar. An area of low pressure is forecast to form along this later today. This will strengthen (a bit) and then move north/northeast. Our area will be on the edge of the clouds and rain.
Most of the area will remain dry, but spotty to scattered showers will push towards northeast North Carolina and possibly the Hampton Road’s Southside. There may be some sleet pellets and a few snowflakes mixing in, but the models mostly show this as rain. Surface temperatures are predicted to warm to the low/mid 30s, but the ground is either frozen or has ice/snow on it. So any rain that falls will create glazing. If we’re lucky we’ll be just warm enough for melting. That is probably too optimistic though. Luckily it will be warmer over the Outer Banks as it is already in the mid 30s there.
The GFS model keeps the rain mostly over the Outer Banks, but the NAM model as well as our Future Trak model brings it into northeast North Carolina and even across the state border.
I put the precipitation chances at 40% southeast with only a slight chance for North Suffolk up to Hampton and Cape Charles. I don’t expect anything from the rest of the Peninsula to the Northern Neck. The Eastern Shore should also stay dry except for a stray shower on the southern tip.
No matter what we get today, we’ll dry out late tonight. Lows will be back down in the teens inland with 20s in the metro. Tomorrow we’ll have variably cloudy skies and highs in the low 40s. So we’ll finally get some melting happening tomorrow. Another system will be moving through late Thursday into Friday. This will be another area low pressure that will move along the shore. That one, however, will be closer and stronger. So the rain chances will be much higher. The winds will be stronger, and we could even see some minor tidal flooding depending on the track. Stay tuned for updates to this. Hopefully, it will be a low impact event. At least the weekend still looks nice. Highs in the 50s and partly to mostly cloudy… I’ll take it.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler