Here We Go Again!

March 2nd, 2014 at 12:44 pm by under Uncategorized, Weather

As of Friday evening, preliminary indications were that we’d see this thing hit late Monday afternoon and into the evening hours. It’s now looking much sooner than that…with rain hitting us by around 5:00 AM Monday and quickly changing over to a wintry mix by 7:00 AM and even some snow beginning from Williamsburg northward. The wintry mix (mainly sleet pellets) will likely continue for an hour or two before changing over to all snow from north to south into the Hampton Roads cities by around noon. North Carolina can expect the wintry mix by late morning…changing over to all snow by around 1:00 or 2:00 PM. The height of the snowfall for most of us will likely be in the early to late afternoon.

Here are a couple of variations of the NAM forecast model indicating snowfall totals before it ends early Monday evening.scalenam1nam2You will note the possibility of 4″ to 6″ of snow in areas from Williamsburg through the Northern Neck! I have not included the (later-arriving) GFS model here; this model has indicated far heavier snow than what would be indicated by the ongoing situation. So the GFS is being watched, but discounted for being “off” by a lot. The 7:00 AM European model run will not be complete until mid-afternoon, but earlier model runs fall roughly into line with the above projections from the NAM.

A couple more graphics here. First, here is a snowfall total map from our very capable friends at the National Weather Service in Wakefield:totalsnowThis map is in line with current thinking about the “placement” of the snow (in an east-west orientation), but is somewhat heavier farther south than what the above NAM maps indicate. With the models showing a trend toward farther south and sooner in the day, this map may be an anticipation of the upcoming forecast models continuing the farther south trend. And a slight nod toward the too-heavy GFS. If sleet continues longer before snow begins (& it could), then the above snow totals would likely be lessened somewhat.

Here’s the snow totals map put together this morning by my colleague, Jeff Edmondson:Monday_SnowAnd this is pretty much in line with all thinking on the upcoming storm. One thing to note: When we talk about “ice accumulations” here, we’re talking about sleet pellets and freezing rain, but mostly sleet. Sleet gets easily crushed into the pavement by tire treads creating ice. Sleet is bad enough, but freezing rain is horrendously destructive and especially dangerous on the roads. At this point, freezing rain could be a problem, but not a huge one. With the temperature dropping rapidly on Monday morning, any water falling from the sky and on roads (& especially bridges!) could quickly freeze as temperatures drop to around 27° or 28°. One thing in our favor on all of this is that the soil temperature is in the 40° to 45° range, thus more easily melting any icy stuff that initially hits the ground. Of course with snow pretty much everywhere through the region by early Monday afternoon, tire treads will turn all that snow into ice on virtually all roads.

These maps and forecasts are still subject to change as we draw closer to the actual event, so be sure to stay informed in the next 24 to 36 hours. Jeff Edmondson will be on the air between 6:00 & 7:00 this evening. I will be filling in for Tiffany Savona for FOX43 News at 10 and WAVY News 10 at 11. Jeremy Wheeler and Jeff will be with you from 4:30 AM through 1:00 PM tomorrow. Tiffany Savona and I will take over at 1:00 PM through the evening hours tomorrow.

Here we go again!

12 Responses to “Here We Go Again!”

  1. Kr says:

    Thank you ALL for your hard work and dedication to bringing us the most accurate information. How do you see this playing out for the school systems? I’d hate to see another “Atlanta situation” play out HERE!

  2. Laurie Lasher says:

    All I can say is, “Ugh!” Do you think they will call off schools for Monday on the Southside?

    1. James Baird says:

      Laurie,
      I don’t think the weather folks can predict the school districts. The kids will already be in school when the snow will hit. So, maybe an early pick up? Just a guess, Miss Laurie !

      S, Jim

  3. Chris says:

    I think that our friends at DOT will keep an “Atlanta situation” from transpiring here. We are prepared for this kind of stuff.

  4. James Baird says:

    Hello,

    What does “NAM” stand for? National Model?

    Just wondering ….

    S, Jim

  5. JR says:

    I am SO very TIRED of WINTER. I HATE SNOW – other than 2 play n it w/ kids. As quick as what we get arrives, how quick will it be GONE? especially on the Peninsula…

    1. DITA says:

      People like you ruin it for the rest of us, COME ONE SNOW!!!!!!

  6. Co.D says:

    STOP FORECASTING SNOW!

  7. LMM says:

    Boy, this is a hard one to call for the schools. I know they’ve had several snow days, but getting buses home in icy conditions is a recipe for disaster!

  8. Candice says:

    NAM= North American Mesoscale mode

  9. April says:

    Who ever is praying for winter to stay with the snow, sleet and hale please stop enough is enough!!!!!!!!!!! GEEESH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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