Wintry Mix Tomorrow. Really???

February 25th, 2014 at 8:43 am by under Weather

I read a lot of the comments from folks on facebook.  Plus I talk to a good amount of people during the day about weather.  When you tell them that we could see a wintry mix tomorrow there are basically 2 reactions.  The vast majority say “Oh not again. I’m tired of Winter.”.  Then there’s the smaller minority who say “Oh really?  Is it going to snow at my house?  Will it be enough for the kids to get out of school?”

Well whichever crowd you are in, I do have an update on tomorrow’s weather; but first let’s get through today’s forecast.

There’s no big weather systems around except for a weak area of high pressure at the surface.  In the mid levels there is some moisture building as well as a little pocket of energy on the way.  Clouds were building into the region this morning.  Plus there were a few flurries and sprinkles in the region.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

Afternoon Update:

Through the day we’ll keep increasing the clouds.  The weak mid-level disturbance will give us a chance for some widely scattered flurries and sleet pellets. Rain showers will be possible across North Carolina. There was some drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere earlier this morning. As the snow fell through this layer, the snow evaporated before reaching the ground. Evaporation results in cooling of the atmosphere. This means that the column of air cooled enough so that the snow would survive its trip and make it to the surface even though surface temperatures have been in the upper 30s and lower 40s. We will continue to see flurries mixing in with sprinkles and sleet pellets on and off this afternoon. No accumulation expected.  -Tiffany Savona

This evening we’ll actually clear up briefly.  This will allow temperatures to drop sharply at first.  However, clouds will roll back in and cap the temperature fall.  So lows will be in the low 30s, but it will depend greatly on cloud cover.  So tomorrow morning we’ll likely see cold enough temperatures for a rain/snow mix.  However, the models have been trending drier lately.  Many of them show only a few spotty snow and rain showers in the region now.  Our most recent version of Future Trak has followed suit:

Future Trak (8am Wed.)

Future Trak (8am Wed.)

So I would still expect some mixed precipitation tomorrow morning, but it shouldn’t be much.  Light scattered snow showers will fall north of the metro.  There may be some light accumulations.  However, the surface air temperatures will be above freezing tomorrow morning.  (Probably just above north of Hampton Roads).  Also the ground temperatures have recently had a chance to warm up.  So any light accumulations will likely be on grassy and elevated surfaces. I’ve put together a forecast map of what I”m expecting for precipitation.  It is LIKELY to get updated later today.

Snow/Mix Forecast

Snow/Mix Forecast

We’ll go to partly cloudy skies tomorrow afternoon with highs near 40.  So whatever does lie on the ground should melt.

We’ll be dry but cold for Thursday and Friday.  Lows will be in the 20s.  Highs will be in the 30s and 40s.  We have a slight chance for a shower on Saturday.  Otherwise we’ll have a dry weekend with highs in the 40s.  I will say that the models are trending warmer next week.  That will be something to look forward to.  High temps will get to the 50s by next Monday.  We could see some 60s by Tuesday.  Stay tuned.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

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