Models Are Lining Up…And Wednesday Evening’s Rush Hour

February 11th, 2014 at 12:12 pm by under Weather

Jeremy writes such a complete blog here that I have little to add. But I’ll do my best.

As of this hour, most of the newer forecast model runs have yet to be completed. One of them (NAM) has completed its run and is painting the following accumulated snow picture:NAM12Z_THURS

I haven’t posted the full “legend” indicating snow amounts, but it’s easy to see that most of the region escapes the brunt of the snowfall. Zero snow or near zero snow is indicated for our area. Keep in mind also that even if we do see things begin as snow, the changeover to rain will melt whatever snow might be on the ground at that point.

Here are a couple other, slightly older model runs depicting accumulated snowfall. First, the GFS model from its 1:00 AM run:GFS06Z_Thursam

And finally, the Canadian (GEM) model from 1:00 AM:GEM06Z_THURSAM

I have not added the 1:00 AM European model because of copyright concerns (from my private source). However, it agrees well with  the above models.

So the models are lining up well indicating that this will not be a major snow event for our part of the world. However, I do have some concern with the timing of the rain/sleet/snow entering the area on late Wednesday afternoon. The precipitation could enter your neighborhood as a wintry mix (even solid snow) for a time before changing over to rain. Temperatures will remain sub-freezing prior to the onset of this precipitation…warming to around 32 to 36 as the precipitation hits. The ground is going to be cold and some of that snow or sleet could stick onto the roads for an hour or two. And that hour or two closely coincides with the evening rush hour Wednesday. Right now, my thinking is that much of the Hampton Roads area (esp. South Side) will be just fine on this…with a quick transition to all rain, thus wet & not icy roads. In fact, much of the South Side might not see any solid snow to stick on the roads at all…just a rain/sleet mix becoming all rain. For the Peninsula cities though (say, Oyster Pt. & north), this could indeed begin as a snow/sleet event for a time…sticking on the roads very close to the evening rush.

This is going to be a close call…and if I’m in error on this, I’m erring on the public safety side of things. At this point, the models continue to lean toward a “not frozen roads” solution. But it’s close! Everyone should be watching closely for the details on this one all the way into its onset late tomorrow…near the evening rush hour.

5 Responses to “Models Are Lining Up…And Wednesday Evening’s Rush Hour”

  1. Scotty Adams says:

    I really don’t want to see any more snow til next winter
    even though I love going outside to play in it but the
    last two weeks of snow is enough for one winter which
    I’m ready for spring to come thanks.

  2. burgerqueen says:

    So it looks like Northampton Co on The Eastern Shore will get thru this one with little or nothing:-) Machipongo to be precise:-)

  3. Christophermoye13 says:

    Do you think that the Middlesex area will see snow and have it stick? What about the comma head do you think that is going to drop any snow/sleet/freezing rain in that area? Do you think the roads in Middlesex will be passable Thursday a.m.?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Some of the roads up there could still have snow tomorrow. A lot of it will melt tonight, but if you get a lot of snow then some of the roads will be icy and snowy in the morning. Be careful up there. Jeremy

  4. sunyznna says:

    My daughter lives in OHIO. …she has not seen her grass in two months..however, ole Masson is TOTALLY over it

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