Models Are Lining Up…And Wednesday Evening’s Rush HourFebruary 11th, 2014 at 12:12 pm by Don Slater under Weather
Jeremy writes such a complete blog here that I have little to add. But I’ll do my best.
I haven’t posted the full “legend” indicating snow amounts, but it’s easy to see that most of the region escapes the brunt of the snowfall. Zero snow or near zero snow is indicated for our area. Keep in mind also that even if we do see things begin as snow, the changeover to rain will melt whatever snow might be on the ground at that point.
I have not added the 1:00 AM European model because of copyright concerns (from my private source). However, it agrees well with the above models.
So the models are lining up well indicating that this will not be a major snow event for our part of the world. However, I do have some concern with the timing of the rain/sleet/snow entering the area on late Wednesday afternoon. The precipitation could enter your neighborhood as a wintry mix (even solid snow) for a time before changing over to rain. Temperatures will remain sub-freezing prior to the onset of this precipitation…warming to around 32 to 36 as the precipitation hits. The ground is going to be cold and some of that snow or sleet could stick onto the roads for an hour or two. And that hour or two closely coincides with the evening rush hour Wednesday. Right now, my thinking is that much of the Hampton Roads area (esp. South Side) will be just fine on this…with a quick transition to all rain, thus wet & not icy roads. In fact, much of the South Side might not see any solid snow to stick on the roads at all…just a rain/sleet mix becoming all rain. For the Peninsula cities though (say, Oyster Pt. & north), this could indeed begin as a snow/sleet event for a time…sticking on the roads very close to the evening rush.
This is going to be a close call…and if I’m in error on this, I’m erring on the public safety side of things. At this point, the models continue to lean toward a “not frozen roads” solution. But it’s close! Everyone should be watching closely for the details on this one all the way into its onset late tomorrow…near the evening rush hour.