Snow Chances This Week

February 9th, 2014 at 8:37 pm by under Weather

Well…get ready for another round of cold weather and the chance for wintry precipitation this week. Computer models have changed drastically since just yesterday. Today, computer models have been hinting at the possibility of snow showers tomorrow afternoon. Models have also changed the timing of our mid-week storm. First things first…lets talk about the forecast for tonight and Monday. We are tracking a cold front which will move through Hampton Roads after midnight tonight. Before then, we may see a few rain showers develop across the region. If the rain develops, it will be on the light side. Temperatures should drop into the upper 30s around midnight, which will likely be our high temperature for Monday, because temperatures should slowly fall throughout the day. With a northerly breeze between 10-20mph, wind chill values will be in the 20s much of the afternoon.

Monday Forecast Temperatures

Monday Forecast Temperatures

We will have the cold air in place on Monday. Computer models are now showing a pocket of upper level energy that will swing through the region Monday afternoon/evening. This means we will have the chance for scattered snow showers between 3-8 PM tomorrow.

Future Trak at 3 PM

Future Trak Monday at 3 PM

Notice that our Future Track model paints the snow across the Southside and North Carolina. I think we could see the snow develop anywhere across Hampton Roads or North Carolina tomorrow. We are not expecting much in the way of accumulation, but I bet some locations could see a dusting up to 1 inch of snow. Our Future Trak model is in line with this thinking. Keep in mind that the snow could be coming down during the evening commute, which could distract drivers.

Monday Snow Totals

Monday Snow Totals

After tomorrow, our attention shifts to our mid-week storm. Yesterday, computers models showed snow developing on Tuesday. I talked about some of the models taking a more southerly track and that is exactly what is happening. This means the storm won’t impact us until early Wednesday. So Tuesday will be dry, but cold with highs only in the low 30s. Wednesday’s forecast is going to be very tricky and will probably change a few more times before we get there. Our latest update of our Future Trak Long-Range model has snow for inland locations and a rain/snow mix for coastal spots.

Future Trak At 5 PM Wednesday

Future Trak At 5 PM Wednesday

This mix zone is extremely hard to forecast and will have a big impact on snow totals. Any shift of the mix zone will completely change the forecast, so expect this zone to waffle north and south over the next few days as the models get a better handle on this storm system. It is all going to depend on where the area of low pressure forms. If we see more rain, snow totals will be cut down significantly. If we see more sleet/freezing rain, then roads will become icy and travel will become more difficult. There are still a lot of “ifs” with this forecast, so stay tuned.

All computer models are agreeing that inland locations will have the best chance for accumulating snow. It is too early to talk about exact amounts, but you can see that darker colors indicate more snow or higher snow totals.

Forecast Snow Totals Weds-Thurs

Forecast Snow Totals Weds-Thurs

The computer models have been all over the place over the past few days. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more big changes this week. I will have another update on WAVY News 10 at 11 and Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will be on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 AM Monday morning. Stay tuned! It is going to be another busy week in the world of weather.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

 

 

 

12 Responses to “Snow Chances This Week”

  1. Shawn says:

    I find it amazing how you are just now catching on to this. Serious meteorologist have been talking about Wednesday into Thursday for a week. Why is it that you are just now informing the public? Do you play it that safe? The last storm a couple of weeks ago was the same story. It was called over a week out and you guys said that it caught you off guard.

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Shawn. Remember, we’ve had about 3-4 big events forecast out 3-5 days, and then they never happened. Do you remember the 12-15 inches that was forecast for this last Sunday. There wasn’t a flake in the region. The rain/snow for this upcoming Wednesday may be mostly rain for Hampton Roads. It’s been tough forecasting as the models have been dramatically shifting from run to run. I don’t think anybody on our team said that the storm a couple of weeks ago caught us off guard. I’ll look through the blogs. Jeremy

      1. Janet Sawyer Brown says:

        Jeremy…You guys do a great job. Snow storms are like relatives at the holidays…Some times they are early, some times they are late. Some times they don’t show up at all or show up with no notice at all. You just need to have extra supplies on hand and get through it the best way you can.

    2. Heather says:

      I am a teacher and have stayed glued to the weather blogs and forecast. They were calling it a week out, just saying they could not responsibly forecast exact snow amounts. They do keep the viewers very well informed. I knew last week that this was a possibility. But it would not be wise for them to predict a weather event a week out. The viewers would then be crying about how the meteorologists got it terribly wrong.

  2. Tara says:

    Hi, thanks for the wonderful blogs and for keeping us informed. Will Hampton see any snow? If so what is the possible amount? I know its probably hard to be accurate at this time, but just wondering will we possibly see any?

  3. Jeff says:

    Hey Jeremy, keep up the good work! Just like you said before, other guys that like to look at long range models and talk about them online can TRY to predict as far ahead as they want because there are no consequences if they are 100% wrong. I think you guys do a good job of not hyping up a storm, but still letting us know the chances. Meanwhile, I am pretty depressed about this storm. This is shaping up to be the most depressing storm since that storm 4 or 5 years ago that brought 2 feet of snow to western and northern parts of the state while we got cold rain.

  4. Rick Dagenais says:

    Hi, it seems that the european model is the most “dependable”. Is this the same for hurricanes? One last question. It seems that this year more than others we have seen large dips in the clipper, or Artic vortex. Is this a cyclic event that occurs every so many years, or are there other factors influencing it?

    1. Rick Dagenais says:

      I know I only said 1 more…. what about this canadian model I just seen, which has central va calling for up to 20 inches… how dependable has this been? has it been trending correctly for this event?

  5. Mike says:

    Going to be rain for Hampton Roads. Such a bummer to miss out on such a big storm. Richmond is looking to get slammed.

  6. Rebecca says:

    Good morning, thanks for the great blog entries and giving so much detail on all of it! Its great. I also don’t remember hearing anyone of the weather persons saying you were caught off guard by the last storm I thought your reporting was superb! Thank you again!

  7. Hey, I left my doctors office on rte 17 Suffolk at 5:pm. Took rte 258 south to rte 10 to rte 460 to ivor . Took over 2 hours doing 30mph. Everyone please drive safe , and take your time. Lots of cars and trucks in ditch and median

    1. Tiffany Savona WAVY says:

      Glad you are safe!

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