A Cloudy Weekend, Watching Tuesday

February 8th, 2014 at 9:29 am by under Weather

If you saw my blog from yesterday afternoon, the forecast has changed significantly for much of our area. This morning the High-Resolution models like the RAP and HRRR kept this storm system further to our south and offshore.  By having that track we will stay dry for many of the Hampton Roads Cities.

Future Trak @ 2pm

Future Trak @ 2pm

The rain will stay mainly in North Carolina today. The Outer Banks has a good chance to see over 1/2 inch of rain today. The rain will end across the OBX around sunset. Some drizzle is possible across the Southside close to midday, and there also may be a few sleet pellets or flurries across the Eastern Shore between the window of 11am – 2pm. None of this will accumulate and road conditions will stay fine for travel today.

For the next several days we will have mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 40s. That will begin to change on Tuesday with a new low beginning to develop in our area.

Watching Mid-Week for more snow and rain.

Watching Mid-Week for more snow and rain.

Future Trak is close to the GFS and Canadian which takes a more southerly track. The other models, Euro, DGEX, NAVGEM, and NAM all have more moisture, and more snowfall further to the north including the Hampton Roads cities. Below is what Future Trak is thinking for snow:

Future Trak Snowfall

Future Trak Snowfall

The other models have totals in the 3-5 inch range for the Hampton Roads cities. What this storm is likely going to do is bring snowfall for some areas, and then warm us up switching to an all-rain event so the snow that does fall will melt quickly.

The Weather Prediction Center has us in snow probabilities on Day 3 (Which is Tuesday AM)

Snow Probabilities This Week

Snow Probabilities This Week

Confidence remains low to medium right now, but we need to keep an eye on this storm system, because it does look likely that some part of our area will be impacted Tuesday-Thursday.

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

3 Responses to “A Cloudy Weekend, Watching Tuesday”

  1. Crystal says:

    What can cause a model to change so significantly within such a short amount of time?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      Several factors such as dry air or a lack of available energy from the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Weather balloon launches twice a day helps to “feed” the models with new information. If the atmosphere chances, then the model solution changes.

  2. Elizabeth says:

    I want spring!

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