Cold…Today AND Yesterday!

February 6th, 2014 at 8:39 am by under Weather

I don’t admit it often.  It’s something that happens occasionally.  But here it is…drum roll please….Yesterday was a bust!  Yep.  I figured out what happened around midday yesterday, but it was too late to really do anything about it.  Other than a facebook update.  So here it is.  We started the morning with a bona-fide warm front right on our doorstep.  The front looked like it made it all the way into southern Virginia Beach.  Temps were in the 50s already by 7 am across the Outer Banks.

Warm Front Yesterday AM

Warm Front Yesterday AM

It looked like a suckers bet.  All the models showed the warmth moving into the region.  Though one model did have less warming than the others.  Even still that model moved 50s as far north as the Northern Neck.  What the models didn’t see was a very small/weak area of low pressure that formed along the warm front.

Low And A Cold Front

Low And A Cold Front

This low allowed for the front to push back south as a mini-cold front.  Between that and the rain and fog, the temperatures stayed cold through the midday.  The warm front finally moved north during the afternoon, and we did get a little heating.  But it was too-little too-late.

Warm Front Finally Arrives

Warm Front Finally Arrives

We saw highs in the 40s and 50s yesterday.  There wasn’t much clearing.  Lots of people were bummed, and I was one of those people.
So what’s in store for us today?

Today high pressure is building in from the west.  We’ve see quite a few clouds this morning, but they’ve been decreasing.  Winds were out of the north, and temperatures dropped to the low 30s.  Today our winds will stay out of the north at 10-20mph with gusts up to 25mph.  Skies should clear up a bit, but we’ll only see high temps in the upper 30s.

Today's Forecast

Today’s Forecast

Skies will go back to mostly cloudy by tonight.  Temperatures will drop to the 20s and then hold there for several hours. Tomorrow we’ll start out mostly cloudy, but then we’ll clear up through the afternoon. Highs will be in the 40s with light easterly winds.

A few days ago there was a big focus on this weekend’s weather.  Many modelers forecast impending doom with inches and feet of snow in the region.  Then the computer models backed off of the precipitation, and the snow-lovers flocked to the middle of next week’s forecast.  Anyway, the weekend forecast looks ok.  Not great, but ok. There will be some scattered rain showers on Saturday.  The highest chances will be over North Carolina, but there is at least a 30% chance for Hampton Roads.  Still, we are not looking at an all-day rain.  Just some scattered showers.  Highs will be in the mid 40s.  The forecast for Sunday has really dried up.  Even more than 24 hours ago. So now we are looking at a mix of sun and clouds during the day with highs near 50.  By the evening there may be a few showers or flurries, but nothing big is expected.  One model (GFS) showed a quick dusting of snow in an earlier run.  The more recent run, however,  only shows a couple of flurries.  The chance for precipitation comes from a pocket of energy in the mid levels.  It will be combined with a sharp cold front.  That front will let cold air pour in during Monday and Tuesday.  Then the models advertise an area of low pressure to form over the deep south.   The models are showing some rain and possibly a decent amount of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.  However, it is still too early for any real accuracy.  The European Model looks less ominous than the GFS model (up through Wednesday night), but both show lots of moisture running into the cold airmass already in place.  So it’s definitely something to watch.

Until then try to stay warm.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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