A Warm Weekend to Melt Snow

February 1st, 2014 at 10:55 am by under Weather

We are going to see a big melt today and tomorrow across Hampton Roads. I started a timelapse of the melting snow that will go all day long. Tiffany Savona will have that tonight.

We started our day with some fog, but mostly sunny skies.

Sunny & Warmer Today

Sunny & Warmer Today

That area of high pressure is keeping us dry and sunny today. This late afternoon, you may start to see a few more clouds to our south. Those are from a new storm system that developed off of the coast of South Carolina this morning. That low will move in overnight bringing in a chance for some scattered showers and likely fog.

Future Trak @ 2am Sunday

Future Trak @ 2am Sunday

The rain will move from south to north overnight. It will be done before sunrise on Sunday. Since we are going to be melting a significant amount of snowpack today; there will be added water vapor in the lower atmosphere. That will condense overnight in to some ground fog that we will see tomorrow morning. This morning if you saw fog, you may have only had it for an hour or two. Tomorrow, we could see the fog stick around until the mid morning hours. After that we will see sunny skies. High temperatures should be in the mid-60s with a southwest wind tomorrow.

On Monday another storm system developing in Arkansas will move in to our area bringing rainfall.

Rain for us, Snow to the North

Rain for us, Snow to the North

I want to keep a close eye on this storm system as it will be bringing snowfall towards Fredericksburg and possibly to the Northern Neck before it moves out in the evening. There are not any models at this point bringing snow to the Hampton Roads Cities from this storm.

Also, I have been approached several times about a storm for next weekend. While one model showed a storm, there is no reason to believe it will happen. I want to show you this that was created by the National Weather Service in Georgia:

Models

Why we shouldn’t trust long range models.

Models that go long in to the future (7+ days) are best used to look at trends than any specific type of forecast. If I were to trust and tell you every time a long range model said there was a chance for a storm or a hurricane then I would be crying wolf. Here is an example on why we should trust long ranges forecasts. This summer we had a quiet hurricane season. If the long range models were right we would have seen 3 hurricanes hit Hampton Roads, when we never saw one. So is there a chance for a storm next week? Well yes, it is winter time and we can still have a chance for more snow.

If you see a snapshot of a long range model on Facebook or on the Internet that says “Next Week” or longer, remember that these models are unreliable and likely do not pan out.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

 

 

5 Responses to “A Warm Weekend to Melt Snow”

  1. [...] Blog: A warm weekend to melt snow [...]

  2. Let’s do better with the computer models, and put everyone back In working business, I am as many others are ready for a change in the weather pattern for spring and summer time TEMPS

  3. We all would love to see our own VDOT Team to clear any leftover scraps of ice and Snow cleared out of our region

  4. destiny says:

    so what do u think the chances are that we r gonna see snow next weekend

  5. [...] The weather is going to stay rather active over the next week with a new storm system moving in every 2-3 days. We are watching a strong storm system that could impact us this weekend. Right now, it looks mostly like a rain event for us with most of the snow off to the north and west. But remember these key points about long-range models. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson also wrote a great blog last week about trusting long-range models. [...]

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