Updated Snow Forecast

January 28th, 2014 at 7:26 am by under Weather

I’ve updated the snow forecast since last night.  I’ve actually even increased it since earlier this morning.  The National Weather Service wording has increased.  Their model has increased the amounts a bit.  And I’m starting to really think about the snow ratio (ratio of liquid water from the models to the actual snow amounts that fall).  So here is the latest update.

The system is finally beginning to develop to our south.  We definitely have the cold air in place.  The cold front that moved through yesterday is stalling out to the south of Hatteras.  A weak area of low pressure is beginning to develop along the front.

Satellite/Radar

Satellite/Radar

There is plenty of moisture in the region.  There was some snow over in Western Virginia, but we can only expect a few flurries from that before 3pm.  By about 3pm the precipitation will push northward and make it into North Carolina.  They will be scattered snow showers at first.  They may reach as far north as the southside.  By 5pm snow will increase in coverage and will be well into the region.

Future Trak (5pm)

Future Trak (5pm)

Notice that our model has a large mix zone from Grandy NC on southward.  Our model has done a good job with this mix zone in past events.  So we do expect lesser snow amounts from Grandy southward along the Outer Banks.  Snow will increase in coverage and intensity by 11pm.  It is forecast to come down heavy at that time.

Future Trak (11pm)

Future Trak (11pm)

Snow will continue overnight through about 5-7am tomorrow morning. Snow will be heavy at times. Lows tonight will be in the teens and wind chills will be in the single digits.  Winds will be north today at 10-20mph with gusts to 30mph.  Winds tonight will be the same.

The raw output from the NAM computer model puts Norfolk at about 7″ with a 10-1  snow ratio.  If we use a 12-1 ratio, then it increases from 8-9″.  Our Future Trak model is estimating a good swath of 5-10″ of snow for most of Hampton Roads.  There is a band with more than 10″ from southern Virginia Beach to the southwest towards Bertie county.

Future Trak Snow Totals

Future Trak Snow Totals

So with all of the latest data coming in, I’ve increased the official snow forecast.  I now have that same band of 10-12″ in roughly the same location.  Here is my latest update.

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

That band of 10-12″ includes Elizabeth City, Moyock, southern Virginia Beach, southeast Chesapeake, northern Perquimans/Pasquotank counties into northern Chowan and northeast Bertie counties.  It also includes southeast Gates and Hertford counties.  I have most of Hampton Roads in a zone of 5-10″.  2-5″ for Southampton and Isle of Wight counties into Newport News and York c0unty.  This goes through southern Gloucester county, Mathews county, and most of Northampton county, VA.  Accomack county, the Northern Neck, Middlesex county and northern Gloucester county is in the 1-2″ area.  This also includes James City, Surry, and Sussex  counties.

Here is the closer view for Hampton Roads:

Snow Forecast Closer View

Snow Forecast Closer View

So the bulk of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake are in the 7-10″ range.  5-7″ for Norfolk, Portsmouth, and western Suffolk.  This 5-7″ area includes all of Hampton and Poquoson as well as downtown Newport News.  The rest of Newport News and York county are in the 2-5″ range.  Williamsburg is going for about 2-3″.

While I’m very specific here.  I’m probably too specific.  If this system changes track just a little bit.  Then the amounts will drastically change.  That is due to the tight gradient of snow that we are expecting.  So you’ll have to keep checking back for updates.  Luckily, the models are coming into better agreement on the situation.  So there is a high confidence in accumulating snow in the region, but amounts may shift around.

Be careful during the evening commute.  Expect slow-downs and possibly even some road closures by the 6-8pm hour.  Many business are likely to be closed tonight and tomorrow.  So some of you may want to take an overnight bag with you if you have to stay at work past 6pm.  Overnight shift workers will have to plan accordingly.  There will be many school closures as well.  Be safe out there everybody.  I’ll do another blog around the midday hours with an update.  I’ll also have the updated snow forecast totals during WAVY News 10 at Midday.  Thanks for all your input. I’m sorry that I can’t get to everybody’s questions during the day.  Busy busy as you know.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

50 Responses to “Updated Snow Forecast”

  1. Kimberly S. says:

    Thank you for your frequent updates and specificity! It is very helpful to get a clear, detailed picture of your expectations of the snow totals and storm track. Your blog is my “place to go” for the most up to date information.

    1. Jeff P. says:

      I agree with Kimberly completely. I always come here first for my updates. Keep up the good work!

    2. Jody M. says:

      Couldn’t agree more! Thanks Jeremy.

  2. nancy Parker says:

    i havent heard the forcast for Dare or KILL devil HILLS

  3. Adam says:

    Crossover line is awfully close to us. Having lived here for 50 years, my guess is the precip starts out as snow and changes over to sleet/rain at some point. Any chance of this???

  4. Marianne says:

    Thank you for keeping us so well informed. Will the snow be a heavy wet snow or a dry fluffy snow? Stay safe out there…

  5. Justin says:

    Jeremy,

    When do you think the snow will start to tapper off on Wednesday morning?

  6. terry says:

    thanks for all you do to let us no about the wather

  7. Stacey M says:

    Thank you for the indepth report however, I do believe that you mean inches (“) and not feet(‘). Guess the proof readers are frazzled over all the snow

  8. Lakishia says:

    Jeremy I really enjoy reading your blogs. You do an excellent job with being precise in your explanations…I just moved back to the Eastern Shore and this is the place that I go to get the latest weather reports. Thanks!

  9. Jeff P. says:

    Gotta love Jeremy’s Blog! Simple English and easy for everyone to follow. Helps a ton with logistics at work.

  10. Charlo says:

    Thank you, Jeremy! You’re the go-to guy when it comes to science and accuracy versus hysterics. I hope you’ll be “on our side” throughout the event!

  11. anonymous says:

    Thank you for the update as it is appreciated. However I do have to comment on the lack of solid writing skills I this blog. Punctuation and sentence structure used is quite embarrassing. Hopefully these were mistakes and not really the meteorologist’s actual writing skills.

  12. Jack says:

    The weather blogs on WAVY have, by far, the best weather breakdowns for this area. Thanks Jeremy!

  13. John Doe says:

    Thank you. For the detailed information. You provided above.

    Honestly, the information you provided was very helpful. The writing is a bit choppy (like what I wrote above) and makes it a little difficult to get through.

  14. J. R. says:

    Thank you for maintaining this blog. It’s refreshing to see discussion of the model results and their uncertainties, rather than simply a contour plot of snow fall estimates. Please keep up the great posts; you are doing a great job on them.

  15. Brenda says:

    Yes, thank you from me, too! Jeremy, you are my favorite local forecaster. Thank you for your calm on-air presence and detailed blogs.

  16. Johnny B. says:

    I have to echo Kimberly’s(above)sentiment. This blog has become the best resource I’ve found for explanation beyond regular, Wavy TV newscasts and TWC. Thanks!

  17. Paul K. says:

    Thanks for staying on top of the situation and keep us well informed, as usual. Good job

  18. jeff w says:

    your link to school/business closings is not working.

  19. George says:

    What is the record snow fall for our area?

  20. Mallory says:

    Jeremy,

    Can you tell us when snow is expected to start for the Greenbrier area, as well as Lynnhaven area?

    Thank you :)

  21. I also thank you for the updates and details! Being a former Midwesterner, I’m pretty excited about the upcoming storm and keep coming back to wavy.com to see the latest news! :D

  22. destiny says:

    So Suffolk is looking at 5 to 7 or is it 7 or o 10

  23. Chris M. says:

    Thank you Jeremy!

    I was up early this morning before coming into work and you did a great job breaking everything down. I look forward to your update at noon.

  24. Jon says:

    exactly what is determined as southern virginia beach? I am in the ocean lakes area of virginia beach is that classified as southern virginia beach?

  25. Karen says:

    Not sure if anyone has mentioned this or not, but whenever I click on the Closings & Delays link, it goes back to the weather page and won’t show the closings and delays. I’m trying to keep an eye out in case Virginia Beach City Public Schools decide to dismiss early (which I think would be a good idea). Thanks!

  26. Julie B says:

    You do a wonderful job giving us all the data and keeping us up to date! Thank you!!!

  27. Larry says:

    Once again a great job from the crew at WAVY! Thanks, Larry Chesapeake

  28. voni plain says:

    Thank you for you simple explanations regarding the snow storm. With two grown shepherds and a disability, I need to stay on top of every detail about today’s weather. If you could share this, please everyone pick up your doggy poop in the snow just as you would on a normal day. Thanks again Jeremy

  29. Bonnie Wallace says:

    Thank you so much for your information. Your blog is very informative and helpful! Will be watching you all throughout the day. Keep doing the good job that you are doing!

  30. Dominick says:

    Thanks Jeremy! You and Don have made one heck of an impact on forecasting for Hampton Roads over the last couple of years. Seems I can always trust you for the best guesses (and I mean that in a good way, since weather prediction is always a guess for the most part).

    I’d also like to say thanks for including Gloucester in your predictions!

  31. Lewis S says:

    I love love LOVE the blogs! As a Meteorology enthusiast, it is so fascinating to get some in-depth knowledge about the weather patterns of the area. I love that, in your blogs, you all give specific Meteorology terms and define them. It allows for deeper understanding that you just cannot obtain from a couple of minute spot on tv. Keep up the outstanding work you guys!!!

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      Thank you for reading them!

  32. Dida says:

    I keep hearing the south end of virginia beach getting 10-12 inches. Could you please specify a few neighborhoods that would be in the “south end”?

  33. ray middleton says:

    I live on the Eastern Shore.
    Your last map shown on today’s 7:36 am update has a slightly enlarged view but the upper part of the Eastern Shore is blocked out.
    Is there anyway you could move the Super Doppler logo a little?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      Snow Map

  34. Tom P. says:

    Of all the places online I have gone to in an effort to gauge when the proverbial snowstorm is going to hit the fan :-) Yours is the best, I was really stressed about having to be at work today and not knowing when to time my commute back home, being on the road for 50-60 mins in good weather translates to hours in bad weather, so specific information is greatly appreciated. I love the way you give some specific information about when the snow will hit and when it will be getting bad and telling people to think about alternatives to getting on the road after 6PM! Keep up the great work; you definitely made it to my Favorites Bar!!

  35. Kevin R says:

    This isn’t correct. National Weather Service, NOAA and Weather.com all have most of the Isle of Wight area at 6-8″, 10-14 in VB/Chesapeake and the rest of Hampton Roads at 8-10″. You are the only one with such a small area and low totals. Not saying you are not right but you are very inconsistent with everyone else. Thanks.

    1. Peter says:

      Your first statement is “This isn’t correct.” Your last statement is “Not saying you are not right…”. Well, yes, actually you did, in your first three words. :) Sorry to point out the obvious, just defending the honor of our hard-working weather people.

  36. [...] Roads and North Carolina over the next 18 hours or so. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler wrote a big snow blog this morning. Jeremy and I have made a few small changes to the snow totals map. We shifted the higher totals [...]

  37. Jeff says:

    Just wondering if you give any thought to any of these short range models that are blowing things up a little more for points north west? Or are those models not historically accurate?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      The RAP and HRRR can help to give some guidance for sure. We are watching them.

  38. ashley says:

    my job won’t even close in hampton and they say if we dont come in we can get fired apple contractors suck

  39. Patrick says:

    Best information I’ve heard about the storm yet!! Thank you.

  40. Val James says:

    Stop that! You keep increasing the totals on the Peninsula! Why????? I just washed my car!

  41. Debbie says:

    Is there any way that you could show us where our neighborhoods fall on the map? The “Southside” is so general. I live in Kempsville at Providence and Old Providence. Thank you.

  42. PJ says:

    Thank you for continuously updating the weather forecast. Your detailed and simplistic explanations are very interesting and informative. Please continue to do this amazing job and may god bless you.

    Do you think Chesapeake Public Schools will shutdown for tomorrow and how long do you think the snow will stay on the ground?
    Thank You for being awesome!

  43. dave says:

    weather.gov has Parksley at 5-12.It has been going up all day.Has yours changed?I still see 1-2

  44. Mike D. says:

    We have about 11″ in the Newland Section of Pasquotank County this morning at 6:30 a.m. That was in my front yard and it’s still coming down for a little while longer. Great job Jeremy. Don Slater has been our weather source for a very long time ( he still had all of his hair- lol). Where did the reporter get 3″ from? We were just in town and there is at least twice that amount in most places-even by the hospital. Look at the tire tracks. Blame it on the ruler…hehe. Stay warm.

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