Snow… Round 2 Update

January 27th, 2014 at 1:08 pm by under Weather

This is a brief midday update based off of the latest information.  I did a very big blog this morning.  You can check it out here: Jeremy’s Big Morning Blog.  It has the general overview of the developing situation.  It talks a lot about the models, but we have had some updates in since then.  One important update is that the hi-resolution NAM has come in with a wetter trend.  Since it was one of the 2 drier models earlier, that really only leaves the European model left as a dry outlier.  So I’ve put together a snowfall forecast based off of the latest models.  Here is the latest forecast map:

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

I post these maps, and then folks still ask what they can expect in their region.  So here is a little tighter view of the forecast for you:

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

I have 1-2″ up to Williamsburg, Gloucester, Reedville and Exmore, but there may be an even sharper/closer cutoff to the snow in those locations.   The models still disagree on where the highest moisture will move into, but they do agree now on bringing it more to the north.  One update is that our local model (Future Trak) shows more of a rain/snow mix over the Outer Banks up to just south of Elizabeth City.  (pink area below)

Future Trak (11PM Tue)

Future Trak (11PM Tue)

This could make for a sharp gradient on the south end of the snow.  So we if that is right, then we are really looking at a narrow snow band across the region.  I’ll say it again that a slight shift in the track of the low/front will dramatically alter the amounts.  Here is a look at our latest Future Trak snow forecast:

Future Trak Snow Totals

Future Trak Snow Totals

Notice the tight gradient.  Also notice the lesser amount of snow into Dare county and the Outer Banks. Again, that is that possible mix zone setting up.  Watches and Warnings are still posted for our region.  It’s possible that the Winter Storm Warning will be shifted north later today.

So that is my update.  Sorry, I won’t go into too much detail in the models this time, but there is a little better agreement between them.  I am using a 10 to 1 ratio.  (1 inch of water to 10 inches of snow).  It’s possible that we’ll need a higher ration.  That tends to happen when you have heavy wet snow.  One other trend is that it seems to start a little later (Tuesday afternoon in Hampton Roads) and end a little sooner.  However, it also looks a little heavier.  So it evens out the amounts some.  Anyway, we’ll have another update sometime this evening.  Thanks for all your input.  Also I’m sorry that I can’t answer everyone’s questions.  I’ll try my best, but remember there are a lot of things to update with social media now.  Busy busy.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

29 Responses to “Snow… Round 2 Update”

  1. S. Bryant says:

    Thanks Jeremy for the work you put in on this. We live in tough area to forecast. I just wish people would understand that. As they say, “If you don’t like the weather, just wait 15 minutes!”

  2. Toni Saunders says:

    Thanks for the update Jeremy!

  3. Rachel says:

    So, what’s the bread and milk factor?

  4. Lauren says:

    Hey Jeremy! Thanks for all the hard work you guys are doing! I know you may not be able to answer questions, but I thought I’d give it a shot! ;) Mine concerns timing. Any thoughts as to when things might start getting dicey in Hampton Roads? We’re headed to from Norfolk Richmond to the General Assembly (and back) tomorrow, and we’re trying to decide if we should head back early or cancel all together. Thanks so much. (Aside from our travel plans, I’m thrilled! Love seeing the snow!)

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Lauren. I’m thinking Tuesday night from 7pm onward. Could start a little early, but it shouldn’t be too bad at first. Have a safe trip. Jeremy

  5. Mark says:

    The EURO is no longer the outlier. Now shows Major Snowstorm for SE VA. I really hope this scenario verifies. The last storm was a tease and this would complete Winter. It’s also interesting that all the models are trending to a more significant impact instead of backing off like they have been this Winter.

  6. Kristine says:

    Thanks for all you do to keep us posted! We really do appreciate all of your (and the rest of the Wavy team’s) dedication to give us the most up to date and accurate info!

  7. Leoana says:

    Why do the forcasted snow fall amounts differ so much between tv stations?
    Then there are the independent forecasters saying this is much bigger and we are looking at 12-15 for VA BEACH.
    thx

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Each forecaster looks at the various models, but there are even more than I mentioned in the blogs. Some independent forecasters do a good job, but there are some that like to have fun while they forecast. They don’t have much to lose by forecasting big, so they let the numbers fly. I like to trend my forecasts rather than have them jump. Unless all the models jump. Tiffany already increased the forecast since this morning. I’ll likely increase them again tomorrow morning. It’s possible some folks could see a foot out of this. I won’t pin that on any one area just yet though. Jeremy W.

  8. Nasaundra Williams says:

    Thank you Jeremy. What is the likelihood that this will either pass over us or grant us a smaller amount of snowfall ? Also, Is this storm mixed with any other form of precipitation like rain or hail ?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Nasaundra. There will be a mix over parts of the Outer Banks, but it is likely snow for us. It probably won’t pass us, by but lesser amounts are possible if the system tracks farther east. There’s a low chance for that at this time. Jeremy W.

  9. Ann H says:

    Jeremy – when will it start to snow tomorrow? I have to drive to Richmond and back tomorrow -

  10. Angel B. Roberts says:

    Thanks so much. Some of us HAVE to be at work No matter what. Thank you very much for keeping us all apprised.We appreciate you!

  11. ralph says:

    why is that the local guys have are just posting this since this morning, Don di have a maybe at the end of last week but on Saturday said he was not worried about it it was not going to happen but wxrisk.com has been saying this for over a week now and their first snow fall map shows higher amounts then the map above and have snow accumulating all the inland to Richmond. Why so different?

    1. Jeff Edmondson WAVY says:

      Tracking offshore storms is very difficult. On Saturday all of the models backed off, and you can see how they changed now. The site that you mentioned did not note the change, so I would be careful from what you read from them as it may be outdated, we provide you with updates everyday from our Meteorologists.

  12. Bill Phelps says:

    Thanks for the detailed update/forecast. I think you are the one in the area that has explained the models that are used for your forecasting…I hope we don’t get the 6 inches expected, but at least we can prepare for that to happen.

    Thanks again

  13. Jennifer Benton says:

    My question isn’t directly about the weather forecast, but on ejoying the weather. Are there any hills anywhere in Virginia Beach where the police won’t run you off that you can sled? Public or private? I know Mt Trashmore is off limits. I thought I heard that last week people were sledding on the hill at the Old Cavalier Hotel, but I don’t know if that was just for guests or if the police were running them off or not. I just want to be able to enjoy this rare snow event. Thanks!

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Good question Jennifer. I don’t know of any, but if you find some then let me know. I miss the old days when kids could go out and sled on hills. Jeremy

    2. onetocomment says:

      I live in Greenbrier and saw a few kids sledding down the hills at the golf course… off of Eden Way.

  14. Melisa says:

    Keep up the amazing work!!! You guys and gals at WAVY TV 10 Rock!!! Let it Snow Let it Snow Let it Snow !!!!!

  15. matthew says:

    Hey Jeremy! Is there gonna be enough snow to make a snowwoman to look identical to Lady Gaga becouse nothing says winter like those hard nurples. By the way,shout outs to all my weather folks, Don, Jeremy,Veronica,DeeDee, Lil Head with da Big Neck,and Ernest

  16. matthew says:

    thats good stuff no more awaiting moderater

  17. [...] is an update to Jeremy’s afternoon blog. Jeremy mentioned that the European model was the driest model earlier this afternoon. Well the [...]

  18. Crystal says:

    Being from a state that sees a lot of snow as the norm, do you think we are wimps or overreact to systems like this? A lot of people say we are wimps and overreact but they haven’t lived in an area like this which doesn’t see but maybe a slight dusting, at best, of snow every year. We simply don’t invest our money in salt and snow plows because systems like this rarely come up. I’m curious as to your thoughts about this kind of thinking of others.

  19. Nicole says:

    Hi Jeremy,

    We wanted to know here at William and Mary in Williamsburg how much snow we would be getting. We are wondering about school closings. Thank you!

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      You are in between the 1-2″ and 2-5″ Nicole. So I would expect about 2-3″ for now. We may update that this afternoon. Jeremy

  20. Brooks says:

    Good Morning. I have to say, it is so very frustrating when you can’t get up to date information on webpages. There are alot of folks that can’t view a TV due to work, but still need to be aware of current conditions and thinking. With each website I go local the info is outdate and useless. I realize you are all so very busy.. and I appreciate all that you do… but please remember those that get info from websites.

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hello Brooks. I understand your frustration. Keep in mind that I do need to double check my work though to check for accuracy. (as best I can). I did just post a new blog. I’ll have another by the end of the midday show. Jeremy W.

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