Snow… Round 2 UpdateJanuary 27th, 2014 at 1:08 pm by Jeremy Wheeler under Weather
This is a brief midday update based off of the latest information. I did a very big blog this morning. You can check it out here: Jeremy’s Big Morning Blog. It has the general overview of the developing situation. It talks a lot about the models, but we have had some updates in since then. One important update is that the hi-resolution NAM has come in with a wetter trend. Since it was one of the 2 drier models earlier, that really only leaves the European model left as a dry outlier. So I’ve put together a snowfall forecast based off of the latest models. Here is the latest forecast map:
I post these maps, and then folks still ask what they can expect in their region. So here is a little tighter view of the forecast for you:
I have 1-2″ up to Williamsburg, Gloucester, Reedville and Exmore, but there may be an even sharper/closer cutoff to the snow in those locations. The models still disagree on where the highest moisture will move into, but they do agree now on bringing it more to the north. One update is that our local model (Future Trak) shows more of a rain/snow mix over the Outer Banks up to just south of Elizabeth City. (pink area below)
This could make for a sharp gradient on the south end of the snow. So we if that is right, then we are really looking at a narrow snow band across the region. I’ll say it again that a slight shift in the track of the low/front will dramatically alter the amounts. Here is a look at our latest Future Trak snow forecast:
Notice the tight gradient. Also notice the lesser amount of snow into Dare county and the Outer Banks. Again, that is that possible mix zone setting up. Watches and Warnings are still posted for our region. It’s possible that the Winter Storm Warning will be shifted north later today.
So that is my update. Sorry, I won’t go into too much detail in the models this time, but there is a little better agreement between them. I am using a 10 to 1 ratio. (1 inch of water to 10 inches of snow). It’s possible that we’ll need a higher ration. That tends to happen when you have heavy wet snow. One other trend is that it seems to start a little later (Tuesday afternoon in Hampton Roads) and end a little sooner. However, it also looks a little heavier. So it evens out the amounts some. Anyway, we’ll have another update sometime this evening. Thanks for all your input. Also I’m sorry that I can’t answer everyone’s questions. I’ll try my best, but remember there are a lot of things to update with social media now. Busy busy.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler