Significant Snow Still Possible

January 27th, 2014 at 9:16 pm by under Weather

Here is an update to Jeremy’s afternoon blog. Jeremy mentioned that the European model was the driest model earlier this afternoon. Well the newest European update falls more in line with the other models (NAM and GFS). This is a good sign that computer models are coming into better agreement. We always look at trends. The EURO was once a dry outlier. With the EURO now showing a wetter solution, we have more confidence in our forecast. However, things can still CHANGE. The cold air is here, but the area of low pressure has not developed yet. That low should develop off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina tomorrow morning. Keep in mind that if the low forms in a different spot, the forecast will change dramatically. So…right now all we can do is wait. With the confidence increasing for a significant snow event, the National Weather Service did issue Winter Storm Warnings for most of the region, all areas highlighted in pink. Our extreme northern counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory (purple highlighted areas). These areas may see some accumulating snow, but it will not be nearly as much as areas to the south.

Winter Weather Alerts

Winter Weather Alerts

I think our latest Future Trak snow totals map is doing a pretty good job with estimated snow totals. Heaviest band of snow should set up across the Southside and Northeast North Carolina.

Future Trak Snow Totals

Future Trak Snow Totals

Keep in mind this is just one model. Here is my latest thinking regarding the potential snow totals.

Snow Forecast

Snow Forecast

I think that some isolated areas could see close to 12″ of snow. There will also be a very sharp gradient in regards to snow totals. If we see a slight shift in the track of the low, then these forecast snow totals will change. Lets look at the timing of this system. We should start off Tuesday morning dry, but it will be downright cold and breezy. Winds will be blowing out of the north at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30mph. Wind chill values will be in single digits, so bundle up! Future Trak has snow moving into North Carolina just before 12 PM.

Future Trak  at 12 PM

Future Trak at 12 PM Tuesday

The snow will move in from south to north and should be moving into the Southside between 2-3 PM. The snow will only get heavier and more widespread as we get closer to the evening commute. So if you can take a half day or leave early, I think it would be a good idea.

Future Trak at 3 PM

Future Trak at 3 PM Tuesday

Travel will be impacted during the evening commute. Snow will be coming down and accumulating on the roads since temperatures will be in the 20s. Winds will be blowing the snow around reducing visibilities. The snow will continue Tuesday night and into early Wednesday morning. The latest models have the snow ending from west to east well before Noon on Wednesday. Don’t expect a lot of melting on Wednesday as high temperatures will only be in the 20s.

My full forecast is coming on WAVY News 10 at 11. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will be in Tuesday morning with another update on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 AM. The forecast could still change, so stay tuned.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

 

2 Responses to “Significant Snow Still Possible”

  1. Larry says:

    nice work Tiffany much appreciated. Im off on Tuesday but im a bit worried about my commute Wednesday…keep up the good work!

  2. jay williams says:

    I Agree With Larry what about the commute i have to travel to Virginia Beach ( Lynnhaven area)i work for a restaurant and i have to be there on Wednesday morning.. Good Job…..

Leave a Reply