ModelPaloozaJanuary 27th, 2014 at 11:12 pm by Don Slater under Weather
A “ModelPalooza” coming up in this blog post. Tiffany posted a bit earlier in the evening about the likelihood of significant snow in the area…and most especially for the South Side cities and into eastern North Carolina. The question is not, “Will we get snow?”, it’s, “Where will the heaviest (as in, VERY heavy) snow fall?”. Will the crazy amounts of snow hit mostly in North Carolina and miss most of the South Side? Or will the bulls-eye of heaviest snow be over the South Side cities (big population!)? Regardless, eastern North Carolina is going to get the heaviest snow. Virginia will get snow greater than the snowfall of last week.
As I write this, the 00Z (7:00 PM initialization) models are not entirely complete, but let’s go with what we have thus far…and some of the earlier models. Here’s a 00Z model that isn’t totally complete, but it’s the latest…and does run through the entirety of the storm. This graphic is precipitation (just rain…even though it’s not going to be rain). We’re looking for the heaviest area of precipitation:
You will note that the heaviest area of precipitation (in yellow) is south of the Albemarle Sound. So with this particular model run (4km NAM), the heaviest of the heavy snow stays south of the Albemarle Sound. However, the blue colors reaching all the way into Virginia still indicate a snowfall in the 4″-6″ range into the Hampton Roads Cities.
Here’s a graphic of actual snowfall from the 18Z (1:00 PM initialization) GFS model:
Instead of the heaviest precipitation occurring south of the Albemarle Sound, THIS model has the heaviest snowfall north of the Albemarle Sound and well-into the South Side Hampton Roads cities. And those snowfall amounts are in the 8″-12″ range all the way up into Virginia Beach! I’m not buying into those heavy amounts all the way up into Virginia Beach. However, 8″-10″ is certainly possible into North Carolina…with 6″-8″ possible into Chesapeake and Virginia Beach.
The EURO model has been all over the place in the past 5 days (yes, no, yes, no, maybe, YES, YES!). The EURO model only comes out twice a day (7:00 AM & PM). The 00Z EURO has yet to complete its run, so we’ll look at the 12Z model run:
The colors here are a little different, but the snowfall estimates are a bit more to my liking right now. You will note that the heaviest precipitation (darker purple) is south of the Albemarle Sound. But we’re still looking at 10″-12″ into North Carolina and 5″-8″ into parts of the South Side cities.
Here are two more 12Z models. The NAVGEM (NAVY) model is shown first…and the GEM (Canadian) immediately follows:
It’s going to snow. And it’s likely that that snow will be heavier than last week’s snow. The question remains as to where the huge (10+”) will fall. Newer model runs will hopefully reach consensus as to where that “monster snow” will fall.
Timing seems to favor the snow spreading northward across North Carolina from around 11:00 AM through 2:00 PM. Snow will reach the state line and continue northward into Virginia from 2:00 and on through the afternoon. I fully expect that snow will be falling from the sky throughout the Hampton Roads cities by 5:00 PM. In fact, the heaviest snow is likely to fall between 5:00 or so and on to past midnight.
Stay with us. Jeremy Wheeler will have more on WAVY NEWS 10 Today and at Noon. Tiffany Savona and I will be there for you at 5:00, 5:30, and 6:00…and likely throughout the evening hours.