ModelPalooza

January 27th, 2014 at 11:12 pm by under Weather

A “ModelPalooza” coming up in this blog post. Tiffany posted a bit earlier in the evening about the likelihood of significant snow in the area…and most especially for the South Side cities and into eastern North Carolina. The question is not, “Will we get snow?”, it’s, “Where will the heaviest (as in, VERY heavy) snow fall?”. Will the crazy amounts of snow hit mostly in North Carolina and miss most of the South Side? Or will the bulls-eye of heaviest snow be over the South Side cities (big population!)? Regardless, eastern North Carolina is going to get the heaviest snow. Virginia will get snow greater than the snowfall of last week.

As I write this, the 00Z (7:00 PM initialization) models are not entirely complete, but let’s go with what we have thus far…and some of the earlier models. Here’s a 00Z model that isn’t totally complete, but it’s the latest…and does run through the entirety of the storm. This graphic is precipitation (just rain…even though it’s not going to be rain). We’re looking for the heaviest area of precipitation:0Z_HiRes

You will note that the heaviest area of precipitation (in yellow) is south of the Albemarle Sound. So with this particular model run (4km NAM), the heaviest of the heavy snow stays south of the Albemarle Sound. However, the blue colors reaching all the way into Virginia still indicate a snowfall in the 4″-6″ range into the Hampton Roads Cities.

Here’s a graphic of actual snowfall from the 18Z (1:00 PM initialization) GFS model:

18z_gfs2Instead of the heaviest precipitation occurring south of the Albemarle Sound, THIS model has the heaviest snowfall north of the Albemarle Sound and well-into the South Side Hampton Roads cities. And those snowfall amounts are in the 8″-12″ range all the way up into Virginia Beach! I’m not buying into those heavy amounts all the way up into Virginia Beach. However, 8″-10″ is certainly possible into North Carolina…with 6″-8″ possible into Chesapeake and Virginia Beach.

The EURO model has been all over the place in the past 5 days (yes, no, yes, no, maybe, YES, YES!). The EURO model only comes out twice a day (7:00 AM & PM). The 00Z EURO has yet to complete its run, so we’ll look at the 12Z model run:

12Z_EUROThe colors here are a little different, but the snowfall estimates are a bit more to my liking right now. You will note that the heaviest precipitation (darker purple) is south of the Albemarle Sound. But we’re still looking at 10″-12″ into North Carolina and 5″-8″ into parts of the South Side cities.

Here are two more 12Z models. The NAVGEM (NAVY) model is shown first…and the GEM (Canadian) immediately follows:12z_NAVGEM

12Z_GEMThe NAVGEM shows the heaviest (but not huge) accumulation south of the Albemarle Sound…and the GEM shows 12″-16″ of snow just north of the Albemarle Sound.

It’s going to snow. And it’s likely that that snow will be heavier than last week’s snow. The question remains as to where the huge (10+”) will fall. Newer model runs will hopefully reach consensus as to where that “monster snow” will fall.

Timing seems to favor the snow spreading northward across North Carolina from around 11:00 AM through 2:00 PM. Snow will reach the state line and continue northward into Virginia from 2:00 and on through the afternoon. I fully expect that snow will be falling from the sky throughout the Hampton Roads cities by 5:00 PM. In fact, the heaviest snow is likely to fall between 5:00 or so and on to past midnight.

Stay with us. Jeremy Wheeler will have more on WAVY NEWS 10 Today and at Noon. Tiffany Savona and I will be there for you at 5:00, 5:30, and 6:00…and likely throughout the evening hours.

26 Responses to “ModelPalooza”

  1. Rick Rhodes says:

    Nice post… I truly enjoyed reading it and seeing the models.

  2. Harry in eastern VA says:

    SLATER you are inept… 36 hrs ago You were telling EVERYONE No snow at all. In this case your analysis is NOT analysis at all .. its simple model hugging.
    All those snow maps are based on 10 to 1 ratio… I mean its says that in BIG BOLD Letters right on the map.!!!

    The snow ratio is NOT going to be 10″1 in this arctic air …more like 12 or 15:1. This means that you have to be to do basic math which you clearly cannot. Your forecast is a joke…

    5-8″ of snow? you just new data which show MUCH more snow than that ..yet you STILL dont change you awful forecast..

  3. Lori says:

    Jeremy and team, thanks for all the great info. Could you please elaborate on your best predictions for road conditions for 3:00 which is the big hour for afternoon school traffic.

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Most roads should be ok at 3pm, but there may be some problems developing across North Carolina around the 3 o’clock hour. Jeremy

  4. Rose says:

    Jeremy, Thanks great info. I live in Camden, NC work at the Norfolk Naval Base and am debating the drive in. What is the snowfall expectation for my area and will it start earlier here in NC? Bottom line, if I go in will I get stuck in something coming home tonight?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      You could easily get stuck Rose. You are in the 10-12″ category. It could be very difficult driving this evening. Be safe. Jeremy W.

  5. Maria says:

    Can you possibly elaborate on the hatteras island area? Greatly appreciate it!!

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Maria. While you will see some snow, a lot of that is expected to melt over Hatteras as you’ll have more of a rain/sleet/snow mix. One problem that I’m monitoring is the possibility for some iciness down that way. I’ll try and look at that for a midday update. Jeremy

  6. Laura says:

    Thank you Jeremy for your really great weather forecasting last night and this morning, and every day.
    What is the record snowfall total for this area?

  7. Andy says:

    I dont think it will be the roads but the people driving on them that will be the problem. Thanks for the weather info guys! Keep it coming!

  8. Rebecca says:

    Hello all. My husband had to drive to Kitty Hawk this morning for work, and will be traveling back this afternoon. At what point do you think it will be hard to leave the OBX? Thanks!

  9. Lisa Dotson says:

    Jeremy, could you ask Don Slater if we could get some Joe Foulkes snow flurries? I’ve been here all my life and I still remember that week when Joe Foulkes predicted snow flurries over night and Jim Kincaid came in the next day and told him I scrapped 18 inches of your snow flurries off my car this morning. (tee, hee) Love Channel 10 for my News & Weather!

  10. Kevin says:

    Thanks Jeremy. You and your folks are doing a great job of keeping everyone up to date and we really appreciate it.

  11. Jeff S. says:

    Thanks for reporting what the models say without making it overly dramatic. I have full trust in your Forcast even if it does not look good for us on the Southside. Everyone stay safe.

  12. Michelle George says:

    My husband has to drive to NYC this morning, we live in Hampton, will his drive be affected by the weather?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      He might encounter a little snow going up there Michelle. Overall he should be fine. Coming back might be a different story. Snow will stick for a couple of days. jeremy

  13. Edward Kehrig says:

    I am scheduled for an outpatient surgical procedure Wednesday morning in Virginia Beach, I live on the Eastern Shore of Virginia. With this snow I think that I may have to leave as early as 0400 to get there at the right time. At 0400 will there still be white out conditions on the roads? Will I be able to get back to the Eastern Shore?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      It will be very difficult to get around tomorrow morning Edward. There will likely be some road closures. Especially if we get the amounts that we are calling for in Virginia Beach. Be safe driving! Jeremy

  14. Ashley says:

    Jeremy,

    I live on the Eastern Shore of Virginia. I work in Northampton County and also at 9-1-1 in Accomack County can you please tell me what the drive around 5pm from Northampton County will look as well as around 2 am tonight when I leave 9-1-1

  15. amanda says:

    just wondering when it is going to start. good job

  16. I live in Grandy NC on the Currituck Sound. Can you tell me how much snow/sleet/freezing rain we will be getting here? And what time should it start here? Thanks!

  17. devanie shines says:

    Hi, I’m in Portsmouth and my husband flies in to Norfolk Airport Wed. night at 10pm. Do you foresee any airline closures? Will the roads be clear enough to make the drive? Thanks.

  18. samantha says:

    Jeremy….What do you think virginia beach oceanfront will look like? Have to travel around Hampton roads for work.

  19. Amee says:

    Do you have any suggestions on when people should start heading home in the Portsmouth/Chesapeake area.

  20. Donna says:

    Was curious as to what you think Elizabeth City will get.

  21. Judy Strickland says:

    I live in Hertford, perquimans County, have the models come together for a general consensus on what we will be looking at as far as totals?

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