Computer Models Still All Over The PlaceJanuary 26th, 2014 at 9:28 pm by Ginger Whitaker under Weather
As the title suggests, computer models are still all over the place when it comes to our Tuesday/Wednesday possible snow event. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson wrote a great blog this morning showing the difference in potential snow totals across the region. My blog is going to talk more about the afternoon and evening computer model updates. Jeff mentioned this morning that confidence is low with this system right now. Here is what we know so far. A cold front will move in tomorrow afternoon. Much colder air will move in behind the front. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will only be in the 20s with lows in the teens. This cold front will go stationary offshore Tuesday into Wednesday, allowing an area of low pressure to develop along it. The exact location of the low and the stationary front will be key to this forecast. If the low shifts more to the east, then we may not see any snow at all. If the low shifts farther west, then snow totals would increase area wide. The only problem is this low is expected to develop late Tuesday into Wednesday. That means that if the computer models do a poor job with predicting where this low will be, then we could see big changes to the forecast at the last minute. Continuing from Jeff’s blog, here are new potential snow totals with the afternoon updates.
1. The NAM model is still the drier model, with about 1 inch for Southside and 2-10 inches for North Carolina
*UPDATE: Newest NAM is now showing a wetter solution. Snow totals are around 4-6 for the Southside and 6-12 inches across North Carolina. If models continue to trend this way, then we could be looking at a significant snow storm for the Southside and North Carolina.
2. The afternoon update of the GFS model is wetter that the previous one. This update has significant snow for the Southside and North Carolina with possibly 1 foot of snow falling in these areas. The recent run also had a little bit of snow for the northern areas, including the Eastern Shore, Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and the Peninsula.
3. The EURO looks very similar to its previous (morning) run. It still has a solid 1 inch for the Southside and a dusting at most for areas north of the Southside. Highest totals look to be across the OBX where totals could range from 6-12 inches.
One big change was our Future Trak model which came in much drier. This model usually does very well in the near term, so this particular solution concerns me. Here is Future Trak # 1. This model is completely dry with all of the moisture remaining offshore.
Future Trak # 2 has quite the opposite solution.
All models are hinting at snow! How much will be the big question? This could be a big storm for some of us or it could turn out to be nothing. Also, we may see the rain/snow line get closer to the OBX. This means that any rain/sleet that falls will cut down on snow totals.
In summary, we know that Northeast North Carolina will have the best chance for seeing accumulating snow late Tuesday into Wednesday. We just don’t have snow totals nailed down yet.
*Most importantly, stay tuned! This forecast will change tomorrow. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will be in with the latest forecast on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 AM.
-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona