Computer Models Still All Over The Place

January 26th, 2014 at 9:28 pm by under Weather

As the title suggests, computer models are still all over the place when it comes to our Tuesday/Wednesday possible snow event. Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson wrote a great blog this morning showing the difference in potential snow totals across the region. My blog is going to talk more about the afternoon and evening computer model updates. Jeff mentioned this morning that confidence is low with this system right now. Here is what we know so far. A cold front will move in tomorrow afternoon. Much colder air will move in behind the front. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will only be in the 20s with lows in the teens. This cold front will go stationary offshore Tuesday into Wednesday, allowing an area of low pressure to develop along it. The exact location of the low and the stationary front will be key to this forecast. If the low shifts more to the east, then we may not see any snow at all. If the low shifts farther west, then snow totals would increase area wide. The only problem is this low is expected to develop late Tuesday into Wednesday. That means that if the computer models do a poor job with predicting where this low will be, then we could see big changes to the forecast at the last minute. Continuing from Jeff’s blog, here are new potential snow totals with the afternoon updates.

1. The NAM model is still the drier model, with about 1 inch for Southside and 2-10 inches for North Carolina

*UPDATE: Newest NAM is now showing a wetter solution. Snow totals are around 4-6 for the Southside and 6-12 inches across North Carolina. If models continue to trend this way, then we could be looking at a significant snow storm for the Southside and North Carolina.

2. The afternoon update of the GFS model is wetter that the previous one. This update has significant snow for the Southside and North Carolina with possibly 1 foot of snow falling in these areas. The recent run also had  a little bit of snow for the northern areas, including the Eastern Shore, Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck and the Peninsula.

3. The EURO looks very similar to its previous (morning) run. It still has a solid 1 inch for the Southside and a dusting at most for areas north of the Southside. Highest totals look to be across the OBX where totals could range from 6-12 inches.

One big change was our Future Trak model which came in much drier. This model usually does very well in the near term, so this particular solution concerns me. Here is Future Trak # 1. This model is completely dry with all of the moisture remaining offshore.

Future-Trak-2

Future Trak # 2 has quite the opposite solution.

Future-Trak

All models are hinting at snow! How much will be the big question? This could be a big storm for some of us or it could turn out to be nothing. Also, we may see the rain/snow line get closer to the OBX. This means that any rain/sleet that falls will cut down on snow totals.

In summary, we know that Northeast North Carolina will have the best chance for seeing accumulating snow late Tuesday into Wednesday. We just don’t have snow totals nailed down yet.

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*Most importantly, stay tuned! This forecast will change tomorrow. Meteorologist Jeremy Wheeler will be in with the latest forecast on WAVY News 10 starting at 4:30 AM.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

10 Responses to “Computer Models Still All Over The Place”

  1. [...] Blog: Computer models still all over the place [...]

  2. Willie Seaman says:

    It’s still a guessing game until it happens I guess. Thanks for the blog Tiffany, it does help explain what can happen and why.

  3. Jeff says:

    You guys do a great job. These things seem like they are almost impossible to predict. I was just wondering how things are looking so far with the energy out in the west compared to what the models were saying it would be doing right now?

    1. Jeremy Wheeler says:

      Hi Jeff. Despite a few subtle differences, the upper level trough is depicted fairly the same by all the models. They are running in line with the current weather. Jeremy

  4. i would like to know which model is usually closest to what actually has happened in the past?

  5. [...] out Tiffany Savona’s weather blog from yesterday talking about it’s last solution: Tiffany’s Blog. The hi-res NAM model is the second driest.  It has about 2-3″ for northeast North Carolina [...]

  6. Andy M says:

    I tuned in this morning and I was alittle nervous when they said that we might get snow. I really don’t want to make up anymore school! But on the other hand, the snow *is* pretty. I’ll be tuning in @ 5 to see what the models decide on. Thanks!

    Andy
    Currituck

  7. Arin says:

    I love snow so if your wrong ima gonna be mad…….lol jk jk…….but the question is……is obx ready for this weather????

  8. Edward says:

    Stop messing with us! I feel like you’re teasing us with snow to get the ratings.

  9. KenL says:

    A very realistic approach to the potential snow event, keep up the good work. I am from Maine originally and in 1958 the weather report was for a chance of flurries. The next morning and 24″ of snow later we began digging out. Weather reporting has come along way.

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